Canadian Money Managers Optimistic About 2009, Expect an Equity Recovery

Money managers are optimistic about the year ahead and expect equities to stage a modest recovery and be the most attractive asset class, according to a new survey from consulting firm Mercer.

On average, Canadian and global institutional investment fund managers that took part in the 2009 Fearless Forecast survey expect Canadian and foreign equity markets to return nearly 10%. However, the expectation of positive results is tempered by pessimism regarding a complete market rebound.

Almost 90% of the managers believe it will take at least three years for the S&P/TSX composite index to reach its former high above 15,000. The group forecasts a rebound to $60 per barrel for oil prices by the end of 2009, with the Canadian dollar expected to be at $0.85.

Other key forecasts for 2009 include a 0.25% decrease in the Bank of Canada overnight rate from 1.50% to 1.25% by the end of the year, an increase in the U.S. Federal Funds rate to 0.50%, and a decline in annual domestic inflation to 1.4%.

They see the Canadian economy registering zero growth, with the global economy coming in at 1.50%. Meanwhile, Canada’s unemployment rate is expected to climb to 7.7%.

It comes as little surprise that the performance of the global economy and capital markets, access to credit for corporations, oil prices, and global demand for natural resources are expected to be the top issues impacting Canadian markets in 2009.

The annual survey includes views of 48 leading Canadian and global institutional investment managers, whose firms manage more than C$9.7-trillion for Canadian pension funds and other investors globally.

Comments

[SJMDESIGN LTD:]

This year the canadian bank has put the botton and they will return double digit return .
My ranking is .
1 TD
2 RY
3 CM
Also potash will out preform the market.

Jan 09 11:10 AM

[wise:]

This consensus still will be right less than 60% of the time

Jan 09 11:37 AM