There's Unemployment ... And Then There's Unemployment 44 comments
January 10, 2009
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I have been sent this Reuters story from yesterday umpteen times, so I may as well post it, as well as the underlying graph. The gist: If unemployment were being measured the same way as it was during the Depression, the U.S. would be well on its way to similar numbers.
Check the SGS line in the following graph from John Williams' ShadowStats:
Eye-opening, is it not?
A few quick comments:
- Unemployment by SGS's measure is at almost 18%, but it's also not been under 10% in recent history.
- The whole idea of employment/unemployment has changed a great deal over time, with, for example, there being more part-time and flex work etc., messing with figures.
- The existence of a social safety net has, for better or worse, made it possible for people to withdraw permanently from the workforce without having to live on the streets.
- There is no denying that there are far more able-bodied people out of work than the skewed-low U.S. BLS figures purport to show.
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This article has 44 comments:
All I know is the numbers the Gov. (offical) give are bogus and the Main Street People know the real thing - Why? Because they are the ones unemployed not the A-Holes in Washington.
By the way what did happen to all the TARP money given out so far? Could have kept allot of peope employed if used the right way.
All I can say is - Got Gold?
Got Silver?
Better get some this is going to be one hell of a year for it. I know how can I get gold and silver if unemployed. Well if I can you can. I am one of the one's Now on the Unemployed list. One ounce here one there adds up.
Until later,
My You See Some Flower of Sweetness in 2009. (Whenever it presents itself.)
What you may overlook, is the majority of our national economy is INFORMATION based, not manufacturing based. Many people are product, be we as Americans, mostly use our INTELLECT (the few of us that have it) rather than our hands to produce goods.
On Jan 10 08:32 AM Dr.Jackpot wrote:
> Fact is-----most Americans don't do anything PRODUCTIVE. My 22 year
> old grandson (definitely not rich) never did a hard days work that
> I know of. Nobody in my neighborhood does anything or produces anything.
> One way or another (military pensions, federal aid, SS, food stamps,
> paid tuition, government pensions, housing subsidy, etc, etc, etc)
> everyone is on the dole to sit on their butt. So 90 % of us are unemployed
> and the rest are illegals doing the roofing and digging. We're not
> pulling our weight so we are getting soft and squishy and won't survive
> the coming invasion when we renege our debts in 5 years.
In my town alone - and it is small - there are hundreds of people selling on ebay. For these people this is either their sole source of income or at least an important supplement. And yes, some do these things to supplement their government benefits.
The rise in unemployment will cause many of these "underground entrepreneurs" to fail in their efforts since the demand for their products and services will be decreased. In fact, as unemployment runs out - many people will attempt to find alternative means of making money themselves. This will cause a great imbalance in supply and demand, worsening the situation.
It's frightening to think that this economy has been functioning on a precarious balance between those who work buying products and services from those who can't. When too many of those who can work have no jobs available the balance is upset and widespread poverty could prevail.
Great post!
Other countries are in the same shape we are or worse. They won't have the ability to invade. Our liars have better suits than their liars; that's all.
On Jan 10 08:32 AM Dr.Jackpot wrote:
> Fact is-----most Americans don't do anything PRODUCTIVE. My 22 year
> old grandson (definitely not rich) never did a hard days work that
> I know of. Nobody in my neighborhood does anything or produces anything.
> One way or another (military pensions, federal aid, SS, food stamps,
> paid tuition, government pensions, housing subsidy, etc, etc, etc)
> everyone is on the dole to sit on their butt. So 90 % of us are
> unemployed and the rest are illegals doing the roofing and digging.
> We're not pulling our weight so we are getting soft and squishy and
> won't survive the coming invasion when we renege our debts in 5 years.
If an illegal alien shows up as unemployed, he/she may just leave. It is very possible these people are being counted, but how big of a problem is that? Who's problem is that?
Say what you want, many women work who simply choose to and may move in and out of the workforce at no great hardship to their family if they choose to quit, take lower pay, or get laid off.
Many other women work to support a stressed middle class just getting by. If one income is lost in those homes it is a big problem, but not the same problem we had pre 1980 or in the great depression with single wage earner homes as the standard.
On Jan 10 09:53 AM Bruce W. Cain wrote:
> Obama needs to do the following immediately or we may correctly lable
> him a TRAITOR to the American people:
>
> * A Complete halt on Legal Immigration for at least 10 years begining
> immediately
> * Universal manadate for all employers to implement E-Verify on both
> new and existent workers. This will send the illegals and Visa overstays
> home.
> * An immediate moritorium on all foreclosures and evictions from
> primary residences should they be homes or apartments.
>
> Concurrent with this Obama needs to implement all 10 planks of the
> "New Agenda for America:"
>
>
> NEW AGENDA FOR AMERICA: Preliminary Planks
> ======================...
> Help Influence the 2008 Presidency
> [More info: www.newagecitizen.com and click on topic]
> [Video: www.newagecitizen.com/...]
>
> (1) Universal Health Care for All American Citizens
you forget plank #11
#11. UNLIMITED FREE TIN-FOIL HATS FOR EVERYONE!
Nobody counts the people that exhausted or never qualified for unemployment!
The illegal emigrants do not qualify for any government assistance.
My question is where are the money?
Where are the money we lost in the 401K RIFs etc?
Are we going to be able to retire ever?
God help us all poor people!
Best wishes to all!
Don't forget a swatika, oh that's right, he has the rising sun on his. Or is it setting?
Jeff
On Jan 10 09:53 AM Bruce W. Cain wrote:
> Obama needs to do the following immediately or we may correctly lable
> him a TRAITOR to the American people:
>
> * A Complete halt on Legal Immigration for at least 10 years begining
> immediately
> * Universal manadate for all employers to implement E-Verify on both
> new and existent workers. This will send the illegals and Visa overstays
> home.
> * An immediate moritorium on all foreclosures and evictions from
> primary residences should they be homes or apartments.
>
> Concurrent with this Obama needs to implement all 10 planks of the
> "New Agenda for America:"
>
>
> NEW AGENDA FOR AMERICA: Preliminary Planks
> ======================...
> Help Influence the 2008 Presidency
> [More info: www.newagecitizen.com and click on topic]
> [Video: www.newagecitizen.com/...]
>
> (1) Universal Health Care for All American Citizens
> (2) A 20-year moratorium on all immigration into the United States
>
> (3) Legal Marijuana for all Adults and Medical Patients
> (4) An immediate reversal to the Offshoring and Inshoring of American
> Jobs
> (5) A strict enforcement on issues of Separation of Church and State
>
> (6) An immediate move from so-called Free Trade Agreements to Bilateral
> Trade agreements
> (7) A major R&D project to bring energy independence to the United
> States and the World through recycling, reuse, ending hyper-consumerism
> and investing in the development of sustainable energy sources (e.g.,
> solar, photovoltaic, wind, geothermal)
> (8) No further ownership of US Assets (businesses, homes, ports,
> stock exchanges) by foreign governments or individuals!
> (9) Replace the Federal Reserve with a People's Reserve which allows
> public oversight
> (10) Absolute support for Net Neutrality
> ======================...
On Jan 10 08:49 AM patio wrote:
> Soft and squishy perhaps, but we have way better and more weapons
> than anyone else. Plus, I'm 57, weigh 180, and can bench 225, so
> there.
>
>
> On Jan 10 08:32 AM Dr.Jackpot wrote:
Stopping illegals from distorting the labor market would immediately and significantly help U.S. workers. The American West would have an insatiable demand for U.S. workers and would pay them a living wage.
We may never hear again that insulting phrase: "work Americans won't do." That is hogwash.
They are not ignoring it. Full-bore amnesty was already put in the Senate Congressional meat-grinder by Harry Reid.
It's a dreadful bill, worse than what was proposed in 2007.
They will get to destroying us demographically in a few months, but first the priority will be to destroy us economically first (the $2 TRILLION DEFICIT BAILOUT BOONDOGGLE).
Mr. Retsinas would appear to be behind the power curve there.
Chinese workers earning $10/day are doing every bit as much to push down US wages as immigrants. Cost of labor differentials are what is behind the vast move of manufacturing jobs overseas.
It's also beginning to be seen in white collar work too. Many jobs in software, engineering, accounting, etc. are moving overseas to India where labor is comparatively cheap, English is widely spoken, and there is an educated workforce.
It's a trend that won't stop any time soon. The information age has shrunk the effective size of the globe and this will have an impact on the US economy, whether we like it or not.
The end result is a two edged sword: 1) Costs for many items and services will drop (good for US consumers) and 2) downward pressure on wages will continue if not increase (bad for US labor).
This is the nature of capitalism. Compete or die. American wage earners expectations for 'deserving' high wages are going to run into economic reality. If you can't outproduce the Chinese or Indians, you are going to find that there will be immense pressure on your employer to lower labor costs or they might go under.
Not pretty, but reality is usually messy. The US is going to need to get its act together and figure out how to out produce foreign competition.
Stopping all immigration for 20 years or any other time frame would be quite bad for the U.S. On the other hand the current immigration policy clearly has been a contributor to unemployment. Border control is essential and so is an immigration policy that extends preferences only to nuclear families, not to parents, siblings, etc. which leads to an immigration conveyor belt for the probably unexceptional while denying access to those who would like to enter based on merit. National quotas should be dispensed with - nuclear families and the most quaified (as measured by educational attainment, English language fluency and knowledge of American history) should be by far the predominant number of immigrants.
The current insane policies which encourage illegal immigration by those unwilling to obey the law and toss out or bar those who are most able to contribute to American society should be stopped immediately.
Too many folks contributing to this blog are echoing ideological positions and simply create noise which one has to filter out in order to get to some of the valuable contributions that others are making to the discussion. It would be nice if they kept their opinions within their own echo chambers.
I've worked in sales for 25 years...my office 10 years ago had roughly 15 salespeople in an area, by two years ago it ballooned to 40 salespeople.
Competitors followed the same approach.
So the pie was the same although pricier....the winner was the company with
all those salespeople bringing in sales...the losers in many ways...salespeople
that stuck it out only to have their pie cut and sliced in much smaller pieces.
Same holds true in labor or business....the CEO or corporation wins via
cheap labor and lower costs....the work force just gets watered and watered
down or unemployed...therefore is the looser. A little competition is good for
productivity, to much and you start to cannibalize the work force...this is
what I feel has systematically happened or happening in our country....
really the only benefit is to the top of the food chain.
On Jan 10 09:31 PM X-15 wrote:
> Sorry it is bullcrap-- Unemployment may be under reported now, but
> in 2005 we couldn't hire enuf people. Even though of matching 401K
> and great health care insurance....people would come and go as it
> pleased them. So I do not buy the shadow unemployment figure for
> 2005, it just was not the case in Washington State.
>
On Jan 10 10:06 PM Smarty_Pants wrote:
> Chinese workers earning $10/day are doing every bit as much to push
> down US wages as immigrants. Cost of labor differentials are what
> is behind the vast move of manufacturing jobs overseas.
Yes. However, coupled with outright grants from the American government to American corporations to close factories and move them to China and elsewhere we have a bit of a problem. AND, would these corporations have moved were they not paid to do so?
How great a thing that a corporation can increase its profit by half a percent through paying $10 a day rather than $10 an hour!
> This is the nature of capitalism. Compete or die.
Except that you are talking about PEOPLE dieing, real live breathing people not phony juristic persons!
Therein lies the essence of the abject failure of the religion commonly known as Capitalism
2. Yes the figures (unemployment, inflation and others) are manipulated and government is corrupt, tell me something I dont know
3. Buy gold? Yes!; Silver? Yes!; other stuff that stores well and you can use of trade when the dollars look like the currency form Zambia! And Ammo when preople come to srteal ur stuff and the police arent around to respond because the city is bankrupt.
4. America is an information based economy? Yes! but the important info is that info wont put food in ur belly or clothes on your back.
5. Illegal immigration and obesity will cease to exist as problems over the next few years. Because there wont be any jobs in the US moszt of those people will leave. And with not enough food and burger joints closing people will lose weight.
6. The earth cannot sustain 6 billion people. Its carrying capacity equates to the number of people alive in the mid 1800's. How are we going to get to that number? The world is in this predicament because of the discovery of and exploitation of cheap oil, medical advances and do gooders who think equal opportunity means everyone getsw to win. There are only so many resources and there arent enough to go around. There will be fewer when the people who create things get tired of having things given to those who dont create.
7. Military retirees contributed much to our country. They are probably NOT unemployed and seeking a handout.
We could have a labor shortage TOMORROW, and there would be FAR more jobs than there are people: just outlaw Farm machinery.
As we apply more capital to produce things, the nature of the jobs change from actually making things (production jobs) to keeping the capital base working right (programming, engineering, planning --- SERVICE jobs).
Probably the most important service job today is taking people's savings into profitable investments (the track record here has been terrible in 2008) -- what is called "inter mediation".
In the 1980s, the US made about 20% of the the world's "stuff", and in 2006, the number was the same even though there are FAR fewer people employed.
A Freudian slip if I ever read one!
On Jan 10 02:26 PM bosun.j wrote:
> Don't worry you won't have to fight. As America is now debtor in
> possesion and China holds the note when the time comes Hu Jintao
> will simply fly to Washington DC and demand the keys to the White
> House. Congratulations! You made it!
On Jan 10 11:59 AM tedstr wrote:
> This is a generational recession. A pretty significant shift that
> will be taking us back to pre 1980 economics. But why is nobody
> talking about the huge societal shift that has taken place since
> then and since the great depression...working women and two income
> households and the presence of 7,000,000 illegal aliens in America.
>
>
> If an illegal alien shows up as unemployed, he/she may just leave.
> It is very possible these people are being counted, but how big of
> a problem is that? Who's problem is that?
>
> Say what you want, many women work who simply choose to and may move
> in and out of the workforce at no great hardship to their family
> if they choose to quit, take lower pay, or get laid off.
>
> Many other women work to support a stressed middle class just getting
> by. If one income is lost in those homes it is a big problem, but
> not the same problem we had pre 1980 or in the great depression with
> single wage earner homes as the standard.
will constantly be going down since they can't ever get into equilibrium. the fake (or mirage) of that that was funded by credit is dead. it will end up with only one result. a world wage with every country on the same wage. and no country that will be wealthy. we will all be one big third world country, and maybe todays crunch is just the beginning of the equalization.
On Jan 10 10:06 PM Smarty_Pants wrote:
> "when will economists starts paying attention to the scholarship
> of Harvard economist Nicolas Retsinas, who has described how immigration
> pushes down wages for U.S. workers?" - mallarde
>
> Mr. Retsinas would appear to be behind the power curve there.
>
> Chinese workers earning $10/day are doing every bit as much to push
> down US wages as immigrants. Cost of labor differentials are what
> is behind the vast move of manufacturing jobs overseas.
>
> It's also beginning to be seen in white collar work too. Many jobs
> in software, engineering, accounting, etc. are moving overseas to
> India where labor is comparatively cheap, English is widely spoken,
> and there is an educated workforce.
>
> It's a trend that won't stop any time soon. The information age
> has shrunk the effective size of the globe and this will have an
> impact on the US economy, whether we like it or not.
>
> The end result is a two edged sword: 1) Costs for many items and
> services will drop (good for US consumers) and 2) downward pressure
> on wages will continue if not increase (bad for US labor).
>
> This is the nature of capitalism. Compete or die. American wage
> earners expectations for 'deserving' high wages are going to run
> into economic reality. If you can't outproduce the Chinese or Indians,
> you are going to find that there will be immense pressure on your
> employer to lower labor costs or they might go under.
>
> Not pretty, but reality is usually messy. The US is going to need
> to get its act together and figure out how to out produce foreign
> competition.
On Jan 11 02:47 AM Econ 101 wrote:
> 1. Many states are trying to pass the "Ammunition Accountability
> Act" to get ammo out of the hands of everyone so you may have a gun
> but nothing to put in it. Then they will invade.
>
> 2. Yes the figures (unemployment, inflation and others) are manipulated
> and government is corrupt, tell me something I dont know
>
> 3. Buy gold? Yes!; Silver? Yes!; other stuff that stores well
> and you can use of trade when the dollars look like the currency
> form Zambia! And Ammo when preople come to srteal ur stuff and the
> police arent around to respond because the city is bankrupt.
>
> 4. America is an information based economy? Yes! but the important
> info is that info wont put food in ur belly or clothes on your back.
>
>
> 5. Illegal immigration and obesity will cease to exist as problems
> over the next few years. Because there wont be any jobs in the US
> moszt of those people will leave. And with not enough food and burger
> joints closing people will lose weight.
>
> 6. The earth cannot sustain 6 billion people. Its carrying capacity
> equates to the number of people alive in the mid 1800's. How are
> we going to get to that number? The world is in this predicament
> because of the discovery of and exploitation of cheap oil, medical
> advances and do gooders who think equal opportunity means everyone
> getsw to win. There are only so many resources and there arent enough
> to go around. There will be fewer when the people who create things
> get tired of having things given to those who dont create.
>
> 7. Military retirees contributed much to our country. They are
> probably NOT unemployed and seeking a handout.
On Jan 10 12:31 PM Tony Chirulescu wrote:
> I believe the unemployment numbers published are off (lower) by 4
> - 6 percent or more.
> Nobody counts the people that exhausted or never qualified for unemployment!
>
> The illegal emigrants do not qualify for any government assistance.
>
>
> My question is where are the money?
> Where are the money we lost in the 401K RIFs etc?
>
> Are we going to be able to retire ever?
> God help us all poor people!
>
> Best wishes to all!
On Jan 10 08:38 AM User 184868 wrote:
> hey, moron! Military pensioners didn't do anything productive? How
> about protecting your FREE, moronic ass from terrorists and countries
> that wish us ill will! I've been serving my nation for over 18 years
> and worked my way up through the ranks from a soldier to sergeant
> an officer..
>
> What you may overlook, is the majority of our national economy is
> INFORMATION based, not manufacturing based. Many people are product,
> be we as Americans, mostly use our INTELLECT (the few of us that
> have it) rather than our hands to produce goods.
> Thank you for your service to our country. However, there are only three ways to create real national weath - Manufacturing, Mining or Agriculture.
That answer is simple: economic liberty including this time liberty in money and banking. Let those who depend on government not fight over a shrinking pie but allow American ingenuity to float all boats.
How much do you guess it would have cost to produce the equivalent to your basic iPod in 1980? Let's say one with 100 GB of memory.
Today it costs around $250 at retail prices and it fits in your pocket. Back then it would have cost tens of thousands of dollars and you'd be lucky to fit it in your bedroom, much less carry it around with you. It would probably be a better home heater than electronic gadget.
Sure, people lose jobs whenever somebody figures out how to produce stuff better. That's always going to happen. (How many people would it take to plow 10 acres in a day without a tractor? Today an 18 year old can do it and still have time to catch a movie after dinner.)
Those people will find other work, because the lower end prices will save consumers many billions of dollars to be spent on other things.
If American business hadn't been based on capitalism, we'd all still be subsistence farmers. Limited to travelling as far as you could ride a horse in one day. No cars, no telephones, no HDTV, no DVD players, no electric lights, no central a/c, no indoor plumbing.
The advances brought by capitalism benefit everyone through better products and services at lower prices.
Can you play an instrument? Don't need to, someone else records music for you to listen to for less than the cost of most instruments, much less an entire band or the rental of a recording studio.
Can you slaughter a pig and butcher it? Don't need to, someone else does that, packages the resulting products and sells them to you far cheaper than you could do it yourself.
Can you remove your child's inflammed appendix? Don't need to, several doctors, nurses, and other medical supply people provide the tools and services necessary to do it for you safely.
In 1700, when you got sick enough, you died in your bed soon after. No skilled specialist to treat specific diseases, no iPod to listen to while recuperating, no packages of bacon to cook up for breakfast selling in the store for a couple bucks. Just disease, discomfort, and a funeral.
Back to that iPod. How many people made a lot of money because Apple spent the money on design and production of those iPods? Stockholders, employees, distributors, retailers, salesmen, musicians.
Productivity increases benefit EVERYONE through better products and services at lower prices. Those benefits far out value the loss of jobs on the whole.
And yes, the people who do lose the jobs need to find another. Life can be cruel. Many people lose jobs for health reasons, or family issues. Anyone who believes that everyone should be guaranteed a job is unknowingly asking for socialism.
I've lost my job twice. Quit one once because I was underpaid. I've worked 16+ hour days seven days a week at starting my own business, eating a couple slices of bread with butter for dinner some nights. I KNOW what it's like. I've been there. If you want a job badly enough, you'll find one. Somehow. Determined people who are willing to work will find a way to make themselves worth hiring. I did, more than once.
And if you want my opinion, I wouldn't have it any other way. Anybody that can outproduce me is welcome to bring it on. I'm game. Either they're going to learn a thing or two, or they're going to have a new partner that they could only have dreamed of having before.
Either way they will wind up better off than they were, so will I, and so will everyone else, because capitalism works. Of that I'm certain.
The sorry state of affairs playing out across the USA is the direct result of "Capitalism" at its finest.
Socialism is spreading because of the extreme Capitalistic Greed which Capitalism engendered. I have no idea how far or for how long the backlash will be but I do know that only the Uninformed believe that the previous status quo will be maintained.
Of that, I'm certain.