Mixed Analyst Forecasts for General Motors (GM)

No sooner did I mention that portfolio holding General Motors (GM/NYSE) had been trading above the $26.75 per share price at which I first recommended it then it closed lower. The shares closed yesterday at $26.57 each, down more than 5% from Friday.

Well, at least I could chuckle about it.

I also chuckled reading the "Observer" column (sub. req.) in yesterday's Financial Times. It's entitled "General Disagreement":

Securities analysts have often been accused of a herd mentality. No such aspersions can be cast when it comes to opinions on General Motors.

In recent weeks, John Murphy at Merrill Lynch and Prudential's Michael Bruynesteyn have upgraded their ratings on the troubled carmaker to "buy". Himanshu Patel at JPMorgan recommends holding it "overweight". These optimists cite a strong response to GM's offer of severance packages to its North American blue-collar workforce, and the popularity of its big new sports utility vehicles.

But Ron Tadross, at Banc of America Securities, and UBS's Rob Hinchliffe are among those still advising investors to dump GM. Tadross titled a recent report "Top 10 Reasons to Sell GM".

Then there are the fence-sitters, such as Robert Barry at Goldman Sachs, who takes a "neutral" view. Sanford Bernstein's Brian Johnson has a "market-perform" rating.

GM shares fell steeply in 2005 but have bounced back in recent months, with some less volatile periods in between. If that pattern continues, all the analysts will be able to claim victory - and preserve their bonuses.

GM 2-yr chart: