Gold vs. Platinum: Is There a Favorite?

Au” and “Pt” may be dull chemical elements, but gold and platinum have certainly played their respective parts during the unfolding of the financial crisis. Revisiting the metals’ movements, it is clear from the table below that gold’s decline was much smaller than that of platinum - as platinum suffered from the deterioration in the auto industry - but the recovery of gold has also been lesser than that of platinum.

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The weekly chart of platinum relative to gold illustrates the massive underperformance (declining green line) of platinum relative to gold from May to early December. However, platinum has since reversed course and outperformed (increasing green line) gold to the extent that it now commands a premium of 16% - up from parity in December.

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The red line shows the platinum price, having peaked in March 2008 at $2,251 and topped out relative to gold in May at a premium of 140%. Technical analysis-orientated readers will also notice the blue MACD histograms moving into positive territory, indicating a buy signal for platinum in relative terms.

Although gold may experience a further pull-back in the short term (also as commodity index re-weighting runs its course), the longer-term outlook seems fairly positive as a result of a solid supply/demand situation, a likely waning appetite for U.S. dollars and store-of-value considerations. According to the Telegraph, Merrill Lynch predicted that gold would soon break through its all time-high of $1,030 an ounce, and would hit $1,150 by June. Paul Walker, CEO of GFMS, said gold could rise to $1,100 by the end of 2009 as a result of the monetization of government debt. However, based on the relative chart above, platinum should have more upside potential than the yellow metal over the next few months.

The magnitude of gold or platinum’s out- or underperformance will depend on a number of fundamental factors, as summarized by Rhona O’Connel (GFMS Analytics), in an article on Mineweb.

• To what extent is the market discounting or overdiscounting a recovery in the auto sector, in the U.S. in particular?
• To what level will the relative fortunes of the jewelry market help to sustain an outperformance by platinum over gold?
• When will the global economy start to stabilize and at what point does the market start to fear systemic inflation risks?

Although platinum does not have the same currency characteristics as gold, it could regain favor as a result of a revitalization of the platinum jewelry trade (especially in China) and tightening environmental restrictions. And, let’s not forget that platinum is 30 times rarer than gold!

In short, there is a place for both gold and platinum in an investment portfolio, but be cognizant of the fact that precious metals are inherently volatile and are best bought following corrections. (The tickers for the gold and platinum ETFs are street TRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) and LON:PHPT respectively. No platinum ETF is quoted in the U.S.)

Disclosure:None

Comments

[Badger The ...:]

U.S. NYSE traded platinum ETNs:

E-TRACS UBS Long Platinum ETN (NYSE: PTM)
keyinvest.ibb.ubs.com/...
finance.yahoo.com/q?s=...

E-TRACS UBS Short Platinum ETN (NYSE: PTD)
keyinvest.ibb.ubs.com/...
finance.yahoo.com/q?s=...

Note: Volume on PTM surged last week, starting Tues 1/6/2009 (3 up days and 1 down day).

Jan 11 04:25 PM

[Mark Anthony:]

That's right, PTM, the long platinum ETN, saw trade volume suddenly surged up to 10 times the normal trade volume since Jan 6th:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

One needs to look at the intrinsic value of precious metals not on the demand side, but rather on the supply side. Currently platinum is sold far below its production cost. Such low price is unsustainable, regardless of the demand, as mining companies simply can not produce at a loss indefinitely. No business can sustain a loss indefinitely. That's one general principle for all commodities.

The best stocks to leverage a recovery of platinum and palladium price, are SWC and PAL, both in North America. They are the world's ONLY platium and palladium producers outside South Africa and Russia.

Jan 11 10:08 PM

[User 337068:]

There is an ETN called PTM, that I believe may be uses as a vehicle for platinum investments. At this time I hold a small position in it. Stocks like ELR.TO, PTM.TO ( not the ETN), ANQ.TO, SWM (Stillwater) may hold potential.

Jan 14 09:06 AM

[naidle:]

SWC and PAL have had negative profits in 3 of the last 5 years so I'm a bit confused as to why they're strong players unless it's strictly based on the metal fundamentals itself.

I'm not as up to date with Platinum stocks so I figured where better to ask.

Feb 05 01:49 PM

[Mark Anthony:]

Naidle:

SWC and PAL are very good buy at current price, based on bullish outlook of the fundamentals of palladium. You must understand the supply disruption in Russia. Read this:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Feb 27 01:55 AM