ECRI: Canadian Inflation Pressures Wane

Canadian inflationary pressures declined in November, according to the Canadian Future Inflation Gauge (CFIG) published by Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). The value of ECRI’s CFIG lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turning points in the Canadian inflation rate.

The CFIG decreased to 101.0 (1992=100) in November from 101.7 in October, as did its smoothed annualized growth rate to -4.8% from -3.8%, mainly due to disinflationary moves in measures of employment and commodity prices, offset in part by an inflationary move in a measure of money supply.

Canadian inflation has fallen sharply since last summer, as anticipated by the earlier downturn in the CFIG. Meanwhile, with the CFIG falling closer to September’s 43-month low, Canadian inflation is likely to fall further in the coming months.

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Comments

[John Lounsbury:]

Has anyone ever studied the correlations between Canadian and U.S. inflation? Is there correlation? Are there any consistent time relationships (one leading the other)?

The same questions might be worth studying for the two business cycles.

Interesting article - the more I learn the bigger the universe of the (recognized) unknown becomes.

Thanks, Steve.

Jan 11 01:12 PM