Renewable Energy Reality: We're Dependent on Coal 35 comments
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But even with massive amounts of capital investment – and widespread adoption by utilities and end users – renewable energy will still only account for roughly 10% of world energy output by 2030, an increase of only three percentage points from today's estimated 7% contribution. Depending on whom you talk to, however, that estimate is wildly optimistic.
The stark reality of worldwide energy production is a dirty, four-letter word: coal. Since the beginning of the 21st century, its worldwide consumption has outpaced any other fuel source, growing nearly 5% per year. This, too, in the face of prices that have escalated every year since 2000.
Consider 97% of that growth has occurred in emerging market countries, most notably China and India. They've respectively accounted for 66% and 19% of the total increase.
To keep up with the demand, world coal production is projected to increase by nearly 60% by 2030. Every major coal producing country will see huge increases in its coal output: China will almost double its output, India's will more than double and Russia's will rise almost 75%.
What about reserves... is there enough coal out there to meet this huge increase in consumption? The answer is yes. World reserves are more than adequate, with China, Russia and the United States accounting for 60% of them.
Presently, China's a net exporter of coal, but that will change in a year or two. By 2030, China will be importing 88 million tons of the black rock a year. India will be importing a staggering 220 million tons per year, overtaking Europe to become the second-largest importer.
All this is of great benefit to U.S. coal producers, who have seen their exports surge nearly 45% in 2008 alone. They will continue to see increasing exports of coal to China, India and other emerging market countries.
Large investments will be needed on the prospecting side – to identify economically viable deposits – and on the mining side to develop new projects once identified. Total investment in coal-supply infrastructure is expected to be $730 billion through 2030, with 91% of that going to mine development and mining equipment, and the rest for port expansions and shipping upgrades.
Mining Coal's Profits
The safest direct coal play is the Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), which tracks the performance of the Stowe Coal Index. This gives investors a means of tracking the overall performance of companies engaged in the coal industry. This is a relatively new ETF and it gives investors exposure to the major players in the industry including:
- Arch Coal (ACI) – One of the largest coal producers in the United States.
- Peabody Energy (BTU) – The largest private sector coal company in the world, with majority interests in 31 coal operations located throughout the United States and Australia.
- Bucyrus International, Inc. (BUCY) – A world leader in above and sub-surface mining equipment.
Another safe coal bet is Joy Global, Inc. (JOYG) – essentially a carbon copy of Bucyrus. Joy's wholly owned China Mining Machinery subsidiary recently acquired Wuxi Shengda, a Chinese manufacturer of long wall shearing machines used in underground mining operations in China.
Speaking of China, the second-largest coal producer in China, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (YZC), owns eight working mines – including one in Australia – with many others under construction. The seven working mainland mines have almost two billion tons of proven reserves. That's enough to run China's power plants for five-and-a-half years.
Of course the negative aspects of increased coal usage are increased greenhouse gas generation. Right now coal is responsible for 42% of greenhouse gasses emitted worldwide. The International Energy Agency estimates that will increase to 46% by 2030, even with aggressive implementation of new carbon capture and storage technology.
Coal is a dirty four-letter word when it comes to energy generation. And unfortunately, even under the best-case scenario, the world will have to depend on it for years to come. Investors would be wise to consider some form of exposure to coal as part of a well-balanced energy and infrastructure portfolio.
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This article has 35 comments:
We're concerned that the BTUs IN for renewable energy sources of solar and wind may not be adequate for advertised mega-, kilowatts of electricity.
Further, we feel that solar and wind advocates should be stating mega-, kilowatt hours output as opposed to peak output specification.
Coal, we learned, contains impressive amounts of BTUs.
www.prosefights.org/co...
"Coal is a dirty four-letter word when it comes to energy generation. And unfortunately, even under the best-case scenario, the world will have to depend on it for years to come. Investors would be wise to consider some form of exposure to coal as part of a well-balanced energy and infrastructure portfolio." appears to be unfortunately true because of environmental reasons.
"If at first, the idea is not absurd, there is no hope for it." -- Albert Einstein.
Revolutionary energy technology can enable a surprisingly rapid rebirth of the automotive industry.
Renewable energy systems are in development throughout the world – as they penetrate the market, demand for fossil fuels will drop. However, few have the potential to catalyze changes in the entire energy picture. Even fewer can substantially wind down carbon dioxide production fast enough to end the need to import fuel and avoid the most drastic, life threatening, impacts caused by Global Warming.
The earth is immersed in an extremely dense sea of energy. In 1926, inventor Hans Coler, in Germany, tapped what he termed “Space Energy”. His first generator delivered a few watts of electricity. During 1937, Coler demonstrated a second, 6,000 watt, generator that was later shown to the German navy. During WWII, a secret R&D project attempted to achieve production of the device in order to recharge submarine batteries without the need for a sub to surface. Late in the War, his laboratory was destroyed by a bomb. After hostilities ended, Coler cooperated with British Intelligence, which published a Report in 1946, concluding his achievement was real. In 1979, the British Intelligence Report was declassified and can now be found on the internet. A new version could become a University Demonstration device.
We are developing revolutionary new technology. Some of our generators may prove to be tapping that same Space Energy resource. It is now often referred to as the Quantum Vacuum, or Zero Point Energy (ZPE). U.S. Patent, No. 7,379,286 (not directly connected with our work) is entitled: Quantum Vacuum Energy Extraction and provides a comprehensive discussion of the Zero Point Field - and one way to tap it. Reading this Patent will provide scientists and the legions of skeptics with an excellent analysis.
Unconventional energy conversion systems may prove to be tapping this never previously commercialized, renewable, abundant source of energy. These revolutionary new energy conversion devices can be manufactured in many of the world’s existing factories. They are inherently cost-competitive. Not only can they be used to power homes and businesses of every variety, but also to make practical cars, trucks and buses that need no engines, banks of batteries, or any variety of conventional fuel or recharge.
Advanced designs are capable of producing electricity on a self-sustaining basis. Some devices without moving parts are comparable to an inexhaustible battery. One Proof-of-Concept prototype was evaluated by Lee Felsenstein, EE. He concluded it to be analogous to the early work on the transistor, which eventually led to a Nobel Prize and the creation of Silicon Valley.
One generator we are developing is expected to generate sufficient power to demonstrate replacement of the plug needed by a plug-in hybrid car. This will be a harbinger of automobiles that need no conventional fuel. With normal progress, a prototype new energy conversion system is anticipated to replace an automobile engine within three years. That goal might be achieved more rapidly if development involves four teams of engineers and technicians working on a 24/7 basis. The prototype will open a path to mass production of entirely new varieties of automotive power plants. Vehicles powered by these technologies will never require conventional fuel of any kind.
Cars can become a source of income and alternative to coal
Vehicle to grid (V2G) power was demonstrated by Google and PG&E during 2007. It has been estimated that selling power to the grid from future production hybrid electric cars might earn the vehicles’ owner $4,000 each year. This assumes that power will be drawn by utilities from the car’s batteries, by means of a two-way, plug.
However, in the future, cars powered by revolutionary energy conversion systems are expected to earn much more, as these generators are anticipated to replace both banks of batteries and car engines. Therefore, they are expected to produce far greater amounts of electricity. No plug will be required.
Generators of the variety we are developing to power electric automobiles might be thought of as analogous to a fuel cell that needs no hydrogen. We can easily switch this cell on or off. When the car is driving the conversion device is switched on, providing energy to the electric motor that propels the car. When the vehicle is parked, the motor that drives the vehicle is turned 'off', but the modular system remains "on", still producing energy, like a fuel cell that needs no fuel. In larger cars, trucks and buses, up to 150 kW, produced while the motor is off, can be transferred from the vehicle through a wireless technology requiring no physical connection to the parked vehicle.
This power might be sold to the local utility. Instead of paying to park, the electric power utility may decide to pay vehicle owners, because their cars and trucks become a source of electricity, a clean alternative to any existing variety of power plant. Over a reasonable period of time, payments to the owner may be sufficient to reimburse the purchase price of many vehicles.
Once cars, trucks and buses become available that need no fuel and can earn their keep, it is logical to expect automotive manufacturers will sell every such vehicle they make. Plants that have been shut down will reopen. Auto workers who have been laid off could have the opportunity to be rehired. Large numbers of new manufacturing jobs will be created.
A revolutionary product this far-reaching has the potential to provide huge numbers of new jobs and opportunities for new enterprise. The economic impact of cars as power plants is likely to prove a surprising way to stimulate the global economy.
It can also provide distributed generation of electricity wherever the grid is lacking or unreliable. Moreover, cars can wirelessly power homes and businesses. Imagine the many advantages, such as the aftermath of storms and other disasters.
These technologies will rapidly reduce the need to import fuel and thereby accomplish a huge reduction in the balance of payments, a huge drain at present on our economy.
Auto manufacturers are already preparing to market plug-in hybrids and electric cars. However, present technology sharply limits projected production volumes. Eliminating fuel burning engines and the need for large number of batteries with their recharge requirements will open huge new markets.
When jet engines were proposed for airliners, experts projected it would take 20 years for the changeover to take place. In fact, it took only 5 years!
When World War II began, auto makers shifted production to tanks and aircraft in less than a year. These changes required massive reorganization. Shifting to new energy conversion systems that require no fuel or recharge is infinitely less difficult. It only requires the determination to adapt to rapid change that can insure not merely the survival, but the blossoming of the automotive industry.
While oil prices are presently low, when the economy booms once more, they will tend to rise again. Revolutionary technology can eliminate that threat. Imported oil will gradually become unnecessary.
With the surprisingly rapid pace of CO2 production, human survival on the planet is presently at stake. Myles Allen of Oxford University captures the essence of the situation in one sentence: "The danger zone is not something we're going to reach in the middle of the century; we're in it now." It has been said: “What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”
Energy consumption is at the core of human existence. We must sharply accelerate development of new, cost-effective, sustainable alternatives. The auto industry has the potential to catalyze, with a kick start, a global economic recovery.
The recent pair of TVA catastrophes are likely to stop any new coal plants in the USA.
And thanks David Fessler for an interesting and useful article..
on a smaller scale... as a personal source... and patents to back it up.;
On Jan 11 10:16 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:
> Mark Goldes, there is no alternative to coal. Looking for one is
> a waste of time. The optimal policy is to use as little as possible,
> to clean as much of it as is possible, and to find and if necessary
> subsidise new technology for cleaning coal. Isn't it time for some
> realism where this topic is concerned?
>
> And thanks David Fessler for an interesting and useful article..
Again Congrats!
I know the feeling. We ( America) are the leaders! AND are going to lead the World Economic Recovery! If you are planning on using Carbon fibers or need foam insulation materials, rest assured these materials will soon be more economical too!!
I made this comment to Mark Goldes last year: "I wonder how many other unbelievlable Products are about to be announced" I hope that we see many more!
On Jan 11 02:29 PM John Lewis Mealer wrote:
> I hate to repeat myself... But not enough people know the facts already.
>
> Mealer Companies LLC (as Mealer American Motors Corporation) has
> a vehicle that does not use fossil fuels and will also power a retrofitted
> home or small office (to a degree). We have had this for over a decade!
>
>
> No government will allow such a product to hit the shelves without
> a substitute for current FUEL TAXES. We have that solution too with
> the McCain 3R Economic Energy Plan... Google it.
>
> NOW.. We have the okay for all of the above.. but nee fthe development
> funds that just dropped us and all associated companies out of the
> funding queue.
>
> We will do it and we will save this nation.. The rest of the world
> will follow America's lead.. Mealer Companies LLC and our inspiration
> to others will bring USA MFG back to the forefront of our dying society.
On Jan 11 03:27 PM User 335028 wrote:
> True and objective analysis by the author... I realize that many
> are still under the illusion that new energy sources and rapid, radical
> changes are at hand now that the evil regime has been cast into Hades.
> The day of the "Dilithium Crystal" is at hand. And, all the technoligies
> that have been supressed by the ogres of the universe, can now at
> last be brought into the light by the "chosen one."and his Angels.
> And, that all the technology that was discovered at the crash site
> in Roswell will soon be announced. All I can say is that, PT Barnum
> would have a field day these days. I have a vision of "Rain Makers"
> akin to the ones during the "Dust Bowl" that keep coming to mind.
> Heed the realities that the author is trying to point out to the
> reader. They are in line with a realistic projection and analysis
> curve. No one is denying that upcoming technology is not on the horizon.
> But some, ( the ones that have managed to stay away from the mushrooms)
> are trying to explain the realities to the rest of us that are overwhelmed
> with facts that are hitting us expotentially. Here is a concept that
> you first must grasp to understand the changing world of energy production........
> Plugging your car into the wall in your garage and selling the power
> to the grid is a great idea....... But what if you don't have a garage?
> Like, .... 90% of the growing population? What if your neighborhood
> is 600 miles from anything that resembles a grid. What if getting
> your first tractor is a priority so that your dear sweet mum won't
> have to gather wheat this year with a scythe..( I calls it a Kaiser
> Blade....{sorry}) and fuel for it must be brought in on roads that
> are not paved for 200 miles.And,....disel fuel pollutants are the
> least of your concerns! The millions of Chinese that will be leaving
> there rural lifestyles in the next 40 years will be thankful for
> electricity period. We tend to judge the realities of the world in
> accordance to our standards and not the realities of the world as
> a whole. For too many in America, the understanding of "www" is limited
> to "web" only, with very little, or no understanding of the "World
> Wide" view and implications. For the investor that is reading this
> for information and insight regarding future investment planning,
> and, not to catch up on the current science fiction episodes, take
> the authors opinion as a levelheaded view of what the "numbers and
> the "real time" investment invironment is pointing to. For the serious
> investing reader; ...Don' buy any "snake oil" an don't "trade the
> cow for magic beans".... Coal,and the other dirty words,... Nuke,
> Natural Gas, Bio Fuels, and good old Gasoline, are what the emerging
> masses will be relying on. The status quo is a slow changeing "function
> of X" but change,... it does. Remember, in this market, that the
> problem is not enough "energy fuel"... It's that there are too many
> people!... And that explosive ratio will only increase. If one just
> must speculate on new theories.... Palladium is the best source for
> the "not understood" effects of "cold fusion". It's real.. but so
> what... We will need a transcript beamed down from Alpha Centaury
> to understand why the damned thing works!
I liked the comments, both the SciFi and realistic ones. Real like, our contemporary problem is, not enough energy and too many people.
i m just nodding my head to your pathetic wussy denials...
Cant you see or understand that I am talking to everyone not to you alone... in your case in the northern frigid area,yours is an extreme case that you cannot base your argument on for the rest of us...So please be a little more logical, ok??? Neverthelessly, my tinfoil can work in your area, you will be surprised.... There may be a problem with mounting the tin foil reflector while waddling kneedeep in the snow, I presume... It is not impossible... Now,, listen again... you can order special solar reflector foil of high efficiency of 95% or so . They are expensive.. But they will work even at 12 degree F... Sunlght dont stop in cold air... It is radiation that pass through cold air andthrough your window... you will roast in the warm sunlight!!! much like the window on your sunny side!!! Have you tried that??? So what I am proposing is just reflect sunlight that go to waste over your house to your backyard if it is on northern side of your house where sunlight never shines... If you stop heating your home, you will feel a lot colder in the northern part of your home than the southern part of your house... So the colder air in the northern part of yourhouse drag down the warmer air in your souhern part... This is where I am talking about... Just place the reflector foil on a nice lightwieght stiff board with a mounting pole and a hinge or on a tracking mount if you can find one strong enough to hold the large reflector foil on the board, You adjust the foil reflector against your colder shady northern part of your house on the outside.. Just position it so that sunlight will get through any of your large windows like sliding glass doors. You can even mount a wall greenhouse on your external siding anddrill a couple of inlet and outlet holes through your siding wall. Use your creativity to get the reflected sunlight through any kind of glass surface... the heat will pass through the glass ..it works!! even if you may not feel the heat, it will raise the temperature in your colder northern part of your house and slow down the cannibalizing of the southern sunwarmed part of your house... you will still probably use firewood but much less of that... As for my case, I dont live in a cold area like yours, but my house do get cold in the northern part. Now I am enjoying two suns shining into my house... it is so unbelievable.. you have to come to my house to see for yourselves.. not everyone live in your cold area... there is millions of us living in 20, 30, 40, 50 degree areas.... This helps... It will do wonders for our carbon neutral hassles.. you understand??? so please quit squabbling with me over silly litttle pussy details.... ok??? my idea works and it can therotically cut down millions barrels of oil daily...it is so unbelievable ... nowonder our stock market is freezing up out of fear about what will happen to our energy industries... if my idea spread like cancer!! poor exxon mobil poor chevron poor conoco poor utilites poor you!!!
what I cannot understand is hooey pussy liars!!
are yo one of them or what/??
so get on with this!! will ya?
>>>>The recent pair of TVA catastrophes are likely to stop any new coal plants in the USA.<<<
There are now 29 new coal power plants under construction in the US. By the end of 2010, 60% of those will be operational.
Interesting conversation ----- what say we burn another log and toss GUMBY on the fire?
On Jan 13 01:18 AM wallyjm wrote:
> germany made coal into diesel fuel to power their submarines in ww2