ECRI: Economic Recovery Not Yet in Sight

According to the U.S. Weekly Leading Index (US WLI) released on 01/09/09 published by Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the economy still remains near the low point in the cycle. Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI states:

While WLI growth has inched up over the past four weeks, it remains deep in negative territory, indicating that an economic recovery is not yet in sight.

The US WLI has a slight lead over business cycles.

As a leading indicator, the WLI is demonstrating that economic conditions in the future are going to be worse than they are today.

Disclosure: none

Comments

[patio:]

Mr. Hand sir, it seems crystal clear we will be seeing deflation for some time to come, deflation as defined by low demand, over-supply, prices falling.
The only way cash ( dollar cash ) is not king is if the dollar is devalued versus other fiat currencies, due to printing money yada yada , you know that argument.
My opinion is no one wants that to happen; the Chinese, the Saudis, all for their own reasons, so....
Is cash king?

Jan 11 09:16 AM

[actionashley:]

America is at a serious crossroads. In light of the fact that our economy is in the toilet, it's time for our elected leaders to consider some new ideas to pull us out of the recession. The best way to make sure they do this is to make our voices heard. I encourage everyone to check out www.friendsoftheuscham... and sign the petition - strength in numbers!

Jan 11 10:18 AM

[Duke Wong:]

The economic recover can not happen in a day, week or month. It takes year or several quarters. Safety to keep the cash until more jobs create and the debt to be control. I think the market will be side way for a while (hopefully in 1 or 2 quarters). I don't want to catch the knife at this moment. We will have a better picture in next or second quarter.
Opinion:
1) Deflation, if the new ideas doesn't work out (cross your finger) then we get a deep-deep of trouble.
2) If the ideas doesn't do so well then it could takes several years to tune it.
3) If the ideas perfectly works then we can tell it in next quarter. By make a little of money to buy it now, but it's too risky.

Patient ...for the fact

Jan 11 11:39 AM

[Ricard:]

Thanks for the chart...a good reminder.

Jan 11 01:25 PM