Stocks Churning, Commodities and Currencies Burning

The Yen Seems To Be the Currency of Choice as a Safe Haven

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The Collapse of the Banking System Catalyzed Unraveling of the Financial Markets

Crude oil peaked over $147 in the Summer and Collapsed to $40 by Winter

VIX Historically Elevated: Option Sellers Raking It In

The Dollar Rallies Sharply After Collapsing, Then Gives Some Back

Treasuries Have Exploded as a Safe Haven

The SP 500 Collapses Fall 2008

Silver Bubbles Up and Collapses

The Nasdaq and Techs Collapse As Well in 2008

Oil Service Stocks Blow Off to the Upside then Collapse in 2008

Natural Gas Bubbles up and Collapses

Small Stocks Peaked and Collapsed

The Euro Exploded and then Pulled Back Versus the Dollar
Gold Peaked and Then Consolidated But Did Not Collapse in 2008
Emerging Market Stocks Collapsed in 2008
Baltic Dry Shipping Index Collapsed Along with the World Economy in 2008
Copper Considered the Best Economic "Tell" Collapsed in 2008
The China Stock Bubble Burst in 2007 and 2008, the Earliest "tell" of Things to Come
The Brazil Stock Bubble Peaked and Collapsed in 2008

Disclosure: None

Comments

[bosun.j:]

Dr O can expect a flood of patriotic condemnation for suggesting the Yen is the currency of choice.

Jan 12 09:58 AM

[GMiki1:]

The yen may simply have risen on the repatriation of the carry trade. Moreover, do I see a *Whiskey and Gunpowder* article today saying that Japan is about to devalue the yen? (Yes.) Moreover, physical gold is still the safe haven.

Jan 12 10:53 AM

[Dr. O:]

Although it's early, one wonders whether most of the economic risk has been priced into commodities and equities.

Currencies are notoriously difficult to formulate, given that they trade as pairs, not in absolute terms.

Precious metals are the historical store of value, although buying in the past few years has been too late and resulted in losses too.

The silver chart is ugly, and the gold chart looks to show a series of lower highs and lower lows in the intermediate-term.

Jan 12 11:38 AM

[Conan the B...:]

Either the Dollar drops and Gold goes up or VV.

Faber's weekend Barron's comment was to the effect of what is the USD going to collapse against? The Weak Euro, The Weak Ruble?

So if the Dollar is done with its correction in its new bull phase, will gold rise? LOL

Min. move up 92, max. 1.00, Gold down to Min. of $700, maybe $600 or less depending on the Rush to bail and Fear that maybe it will deleverage as much as the other commodities have already.

IMHO

Jan 12 12:54 PM

[AndrewBaker:]

Dollar up and gold down! Quantititive easing of the dollar when already the economy is near bust! The sickness of overleveredged debt due to too much cheap money being treated with too much cheap money! (Even homeopaths would baulk at that, surely?) No, we've got nowhere near the bottom yet. Strap yourself in: you've not seen anything yet.

Jan 12 02:05 PM

[X-15:]

Obama will need to give some definitive detail on how his administration will proceed. SOON. If they have no plan, and meander about bickering, with Republicans providing the backstabbing -then I'm out of this market cuz it could go way ugly.

Jan 12 06:54 PM

[GMiki1:]

Sorry, the article was in *Daily Wealth* and NOT *Whiskey and Gunpowder*. Japan as an expoert economoy loses money when the yen is strong. So, the article suggests, the government will print yen.

I would certainly rather hold gold and silver, never mind the charts.

Jan 12 08:21 PM

[Hefaistos:]

Why has the dollar again been strengthening in the latest time? Interest rates are zero, which gives really no incentive whatsoever to hold dollars. Apparently, we again see a flight to safety. Prospects are also lousy for the dollar, due to the stimulation packages due out, increasing the deficits in the balance of payments, increasing the risk of inflation. All of this should really bring the dollar down, instead we see the reverse. Supposedly we face another period of stress in the financial system, with redemptions, etc.

Jan 13 07:45 AM

[Dr. O:]

Did you ever wonder if the whole game was rigged to the make the most money for the fewest most powerful people?

Jan 13 08:07 PM

[Dr. O:]

Factoid: The Nikkei 225, at 40,000 in 1990, is now at 8400, below the DJIA, which was around 2000 in 1990. Lesson: buy and hold is just as speculative as anything else.

Jan 13 09:48 PM