Nine Surprises to Expect in 2009

In the spirit of Byron Wien, who every year releases a list of surprises to expect during the coming year, I submit my own surprises for 2009:

1. Investors stop listening to the talking heads on TV after realizing that they are on TV to shill for their own portfolio and not to help them out.

2. Jim Cramer is finally institutionalized after changing his mind ten times in one week about a stock.

3. Commodity bulls admit that oil futures are no different than any other financial instrument and that there are speculators in the oil futures market. The speculators are rounded up, taken to the basement of the Federal Reserve in New York, and hung by the neck with piano wire.

4. After blinding leading individual investors into commodities, the third great investment bubble in ten years, the Sell Side is prohibited from recommending any stock or other investment ever. The terms Buy, Sell and Accumulate are replaced with “the hell if I know.”

5. The term “smart money” is banned from being used in the financial media. A crowd of investors burns an effigy of “smart money” at the corner of Wall and Broad Street.

6. After hiding out for months during the Energy Bear market, Matt Simmons is finally located in Carthage, Illinois and beaten by a crowd of angry peak oil enthusiasts. He is quoted as being “flabbergasted” by his treatment by the mob.

7. Hedge Funds admit that Hedge Funds are not a separate asset class. “We just go long and short stocks, bonds and derivatives like everyone else.”

8. Shareholder activist investors admit that they don’t really care about the long-term health of the companies they are targeting. “We just want the stocks to go up in the short term, and then dump our position at a profit. We have to say we are long term investors so management will listen to us.”

9) Investors start investing rationally, they ignore rumors, they weigh stocks rather than vote for them.

Comments

[Eric Fox:]

wadosy...please explain your comment.

Jan 13 10:12 AM

[notsosmart:]

10th surprise-nobody knows anything.

Jan 13 11:17 AM

[ain't no fo...:]

11th surprise... FBI and SEC officials are waiting at the door when Jimmy Cramer is released from the pysch ward and is immediately taken into custody (with several co-conspirators identified as being senior partners with Goldman Sachs). He and his co-defendants are indicted for conspiracy to commit securities fraud by recommending securities that they had just previously established naked short positions in.

Mr Cramer and his fellow conspirators do the perp walk into the same Manhattan courthouse that Maddog Madoff visits, and Mr Cramer and Mr Madoff establish a romantic bond while waiting in their holding pen for their court appearances.

Charlie Gasparino shoves a microphone into Mr Cramers face as he is led into the courtroom, and Mr Cramer shoves that same microphone back into a very personal part of Mr Gasparino's anatomy.

Jan 13 12:17 PM

[1422moboggie:]

wpdragon-


what a vivid picture i get from your descriptive evaluation on how this scenario is going to play out.Now only if you can write the screenplay and really profit. Yes it is quite prophetic how the market goes into a frenzy and it is applesauce and lemonade for everyone.

Jan 13 12:41 PM

[ain't no fo...:]

1422, I'm merely here to serve ;-)

by the way, our family had a license plate in MA for 50 years that was number 1422... perhaps I should play the number today

Jan 13 01:23 PM

[henarl:]

Good stuff (including comments), and all very likely, except #9.

Jan 13 02:20 PM

[henarl:]

wpdragon; Excellent - but I believe they will have to move the Manhattan courthouse to Maddog's penthouse, since he seems to be firmly ensconsed there.

Jan 13 02:25 PM

[notsosmart:]

LOL.this is a great site for amusement in rough times.better than stand up.

Jan 13 03:56 PM