Bancolombia: Attractive, But Not For the Faint of Heart (CIB)

Last weekend, Álvaro Uribe was re-elected as Colombia’s president with 62% of the vote. We're not surprised: Uribe's the reason Colombia is no longer a completely war-torn country. Today, the fighting is less intense, foreign investment's picking up and the economy's improving, thanks to gravity-defying commodity prices and Venezuela's home run economy.

This could be a great time to pick up some Bancolombia S.A.(CIB). Bancolombia is the largest bank in Colombia in terms of assets and market share and it's the only Colombian company listed on the Big Board.

The stock has gotten hammerred recently because of interest rate sensitivity. Loan growth at the bank, however, remains robust at 15% and net interest margins are far from ugly at roughly 8%. Lastly, the bank's operating structure is lean, which means sizable returns on equity (40% for trailing 12 months). There's even talk that Bancolombia is being too conservative with its books (meaning its loan loss provisions are too high). If any of you remember Wells Fargo in the 90s, you'll know that a bank's stock price can zoom once the Street wakes up to a company's "true" condition. At less than 12 x current earnings, we think Bancolombia is definitely worth a look.

If you decide to pick up some shares, make sure you know what you're getting yourself into: CIB is not for the faint of heart. Bancolombia is controlled by a conglomerate, Grupo Empresarial Antioqueno, which snaps up banks voraciously. We tend to be wary of trigger-happy, acquisitve growth. Also, Bancolombia's loans all originate in Colombia, so if the economy there tailspins, Bancolombia could go down with it. As with any bank, further rate hikes may impinge negatively on shares.

If you can stomach the inflationary risks and a slower 2006 GDP forecast for the land of flowers and coffee, Bancolombia may be for you.

CIB 1-yr chart:

Comments

[Lockstep In...:]

Great summary article, Daniel. Any updates to your pitch in 2008?

2008 Aug 01 01:09 PM

[Dan Jacome:]

hi lockstep - I'll have to re-ramp on the stock, it has been a long time, obviously, since I looked at it.

2008 Aug 02 01:44 AM

[Lockstep In...:]

Hey, I keep coming back to your article. I am now in the shares but I have a put in place between now January because the waters are so choppy all over the place.

The august numbers looked amazing, simply amazing. My take is that if the commodities stop sliding and hold steady at a traditionally high price, Colombia will continue it's current growth rate despite the global head winds. What do you think?

2008 Sep 11 05:17 PM