Looking at Apple's Staggering Financial Performance

I just wanted to add a quick post on Apple (AAPL). A number of you have asked for Apple’s recent financial numbers, so I’ve added this spreadsheet which contains the quarterly figures going back ten years.

As you can see, Apple’s performance has been staggering. Sales and earnings growth is through the roof. Gross margins are around 35% and operating margins are near 20%. Most impressively, Apple has zero debt and a gigantic cash horde that comes to $27.55 a share.

Given Apple’s closing price on Friday of $82.33, that means that the “nuts of bolts” of the company are worth $54.78 a share, which is roughly 10 times trailing earnings.

Obviously the key factor is future earnings, not trailing. I’ll have more this Wednesday when Apple reports its fiscal Q1 earnings. This will almost certainly be Apple’s first report of lower earnings in over five years. Sales will probably be flat. The first quarter is traditionally Apple’s most important quarter when the company records about one-third of its yearly sales and earnings.

Disclosure: None

Comments

[Titan100:]

Apple will not have declining earnings quarter over quarter. Gross margins will surprise in the 33% range and the iphone earnings snowball will cover any shortfalls elsewhere. This will be the earnings report that ends the downgrades. After Wednesday afternoon the big brokerage houses will start up the Apple band wagon again. I along with everyone else have noticed that the Apple stores are not as crowded as they were last year, but last year Best Buy was just getting started as a Apple Distributer and this year they are in full swing. I also cannot go anywhere with out seeing multiply iphones in use. The iphone ecosystem is beyond critical mass and there is no going back.
Like I said come Thursday morning they analysis will be tripping over each other to upgrade. I also look for a press conference announcement around earnings to bring out product upgrades or new products. Next month it will be Steve who?

Jan 18 06:55 AM

[mollytjm:]

Steve Jobs gave us today's Apple Company and secured it for the future. this is a great time to shop!!

Jan 18 09:52 AM

[pk de cville:]

Great spreadsheet.

Have you looked at Turley Muller's Apple work? He's more complex, but interesting, nonetheless. He calculates Apple's non-GAAP numbers making the iPhones deferred revenue 'undeferred'.

Quite astonishing profitability when you do that.

Turley... financial-alchemist.bl.../

Jan 18 10:26 AM

[FreeRange:]

Great post - thanks! Everyone interested in apple should read...


On Jan 18 10:26 AM pk de cville, VA wrote:

> Great spreadsheet.
>
> Have you looked at Turley Muller's Apple work? He's more complex,
> but interesting, nonetheless. He calculates Apple's non-GAAP numbers
> making the iPhones deferred revenue 'undeferred'.
>
> Quite astonishing profitability when you do that.
>
> Turley... financial-alchemist.bl.../

Jan 18 12:11 PM

[top_tier:]

Why do many analysts still use PE as the key metric when valuing Apple. Cash flow is a much better metric that captures iPhone revenue. Or use non GAAP. Unusual, but necessary with Apple.

Jan 18 01:43 PM

[Zoltan L. K...:]

This is the time to give kudos to Apple's conservative guidance. All those years analysts were trying to involve AAPL into the usual and ridiculous earnings game. Why should a company speculate about market movements? Apple has no influence on the current or other economic conditions. It can partially guess its margins, but most of its stats depend on the general economy.
P/Es are really not the best metrics, they can however be approximately transformed into a cash flow valuation. The higher expected value growth is the higher the multiple should be. In case of Apple it is very low. The company has a historical beta of 1.87 and its risk premium should be measured according to it. But than again, the alternative safe investments do not offer very high returns at the time being.

Jan 19 08:47 AM