The Bull Run Begins This Week 129 comments
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Are you ready for a significant move up to begin in the stock markets this week? Why a move now?
Here are five reasons for you to consider:
1. Because individual stocks continue to shake off negative news. Indeed some have even moved higher. Of particular note is that negative news seems to be producing little if any downward movement in individual issues.
Several examples this past week include:
- Intel (INTC), the Chip maker's net income dropped 90% from a year earlier.
- Sealy Corporation (ZZ), the bedding maker said fourth quarter sales fell 26%.
- Apple Corp. (AAPL), whose leader Steve Jobs announces a leave of absence for health concerns.
The markets watched these events this week, nodded, and moved on.
2. Because disappointing news in the macro market is becoming nothing short of blasé.
Stock markets are now numb to the bad news beats. News of more large bank bailouts and massive write offs did move stocks somewhat lower, but any actions were no match for the lows seen in November when the uncertainty of the extent of those bailouts was much greater. With even more large bank blood on the street, the market apathetically moved higher in its run into the weekend.
(click to enlarge)
3. Because there is now a cease fire in Gaza. Stability in the region takes one more uncertainty off the market's table. Mid-East experts will be quick to show us why balance in that region has a calming effect in world markets.
4. Because a signal for sea-change in economists' sentiment may be indicated in the conference board's report due out this week.
You'll remember that their November reading, (reported in December), already showed 4 of 10 leading indicators moving positive. With current reports already out that are used as reference by the board, it is likely you'll see a move to 6 or 7 out of ten readings staying or moving to the positive column.
5. But probably the most significant market mover over the next several weeks will be the Obama factor.
One of the great orators of our times will inspire the world this week. It is likely that he will jolt confidence and innovation into action. In turn, Obamamania will stir consumer confidence. A one, two punch no less. One at the Inauguration on Tuesday and the other at the state of the union address in the next several weeks.
So to recap: individual stocks are now shrugging off any negative news. The macro market is growing disenchanted with its gloom diet. A major Mid-East conflict is now under the terms of a cease fire. The conference board report moves to a positive bias. And an international orator takes center stage with an inspiring message of hope.
I'm ready. You're ready. And so are the markets.
(Keep those stories coming. Thanks to those of you that have already sent in good news stories from around the country. I hope to compile the best of those in an upcoming post. Send your story to good.news.econ@gmail.com)
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This article has 129 comments:
Now that's "cool".
Perhaps the market is not shrugging off bad news. Maybe they are just ignoring them like this author is. If that's what the market is doing, I would be very scared. This article sounds so desperate that it made me feel more scared than I was feeling before. When people start willfully ignoring bad news, you know things are really bad.
I remember the days in the late 90s when companies with poor revenues and earnings would continue to go up based on future prospects. So, it is very difficult to know how the market will react to news from week-to-week.
I hope you are right, but the Dow has been down 7 of the last 9 days. There are too many unknowns with the banks and we might hear about some new moves by the Treasury tonight or tomorrow. So, without the news flow or lack thereof, I think it is too early to predict anything for the coming week.
And while there may be an Obama bounce, though that is not certain as many earnings will be released next week, the structural aspects of this decline are worsening as they surface.
Declining estimates of economic growth, rising foreclosures, collapsing industrial production, growing estimates of what is needed in the stimulus package, rising estimates of banking sector losses and growing unemployment are simply the first things that come to mind.
If we face deflation and the corrective actions are not equal to the task, we are some ways off from the streets of Barcelona where the bulls run.
With that said, I have seen the market move before in an illogical direction for quite some time. The recent slope of the last sell-off has steepened, so there may be a technical bounce as a move toward the mean, and resume a down trend.
Catalysts for more downside:
1) BAC and C point to Fed changing the rules of the game midstream, basically hijacking common equity for the common good, and creating a smokescreen to detract from the fact that the present banking system is basically insolvent (in UK, they can at least admit that!). BAC was thought to be one of the few strong financial companies left. Again, creates major uncertainty.
2) Earnings estimates still need to be adjusted down.
3) Breakdown in the charts.
4) Obama bounce already happened.
5) Sentiment? Still a lot of complacency. Americans are notorious for being optimists (which is something to be proud of and what makes us resilient in the face of adversity) however, also notorious for being able to selectively filter data through a screen of denial, that allows through only the data points that support what we want to believe. This is human nature. It is only in retrospect that we realize it was no mystery at all, and it was staring us right in the face the whole time.
On Jan 18 01:54 PM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:
> I am sure we will be getting a lot of "bull" this week and little
> policy for a long time. After all, Obama begged the Congress and
> Bush Administration to do the heavy lifting in order to Socialize
> the economy. All he has to do is take the money and shovel it to
> his contributors.
>
> Now that's "cool".
On Jan 18 02:17 PM t_avatarici wrote:
> It's about time. First let's get Frank, Dod, Waters, & co. behind
> bars where they belong as a sign of Obama sincerity or it will be
> criminal politics as usual. Too many worry about war crimes when
> the real crimes continue in D.C. offices. I ready for all these dogs
> and cats I bought to make some money.
I am 33. Still pretty fricking young. But 10 years ago I would have been Hopin' and Changin' but no mas.
On Jan 18 02:32 PM buffalobusy wrote:
> The only good news would be if the government would get out of the
> pocket of the American public. The consumer is the fuel that energizes
> any economy, but the so called programs and "stimulus" does nothing
> to leave more of his hard earned income in his pocket. Good news!?!?
> There is no good news for the young in this country. Welcome to socialism!
> I'm 74 years old and I can't offer good news to the youth, who will
> be paying for this government made mess.
This is a very tricky week. The earnings and fundamentals are not there but the fist of the government can pound at any time.
On Jan 18 03:37 PM the ilster wrote:
> I hope your right for the trade I just put on last week SSO. However
> it will be short lived at best. We are going to take out November
> lows this year and shock the world. The avalanche of Debt will bring
> lots of bankruptcies this year and squash any rallies. Keep Hoping
> buddy!
What will be different this time, is who will come out first, who will grow, who will use this fiscal demolition to advantage.
On Jan 18 02:17 PM t_avatarici wrote:
> It's about time. First let's get Frank, Dod, Waters, & co. behind
> bars where they belong as a sign of Obama sincerity or it will be
> criminal politics as usual. Too many worry about war crimes when
> the real crimes continue in D.C. offices. I ready for all these dogs
> and cats I bought to make some money.
Again.
On Jan 18 05:46 PM Big K wrote:
> I can see many people have a negative view of the future of our economy
> and stock market. With the vast majority of people so bearish, I
> can think there is a possibility of a bull run coming soon. When
> everybody is bearish, all who are going to sell have already done
> so, and big money is sitting on the sideline. At this point only
> long-term investors remain, so there are few people to sell on the
> bad news, hence apparent support. The bearish sentiments have been
> priced in the market. Possibly, many of the above bears have put
> in short positions, which is even more bullish. The market usually
> moves in the direction opposite to what the majority expect. This
> makes perfect sense. Everyone has already positioned themselves for
> the anticipated direction. Why would all these chicken littles saying
> armageddon is coming still be invested in the market? Of course they
> are not, because once armageddon comes, it's already too late. Therefore,
> I think there is a higher probability the market will go up rather
> than down.
You are right on the button.
Pessimists never achieve anything in their lives.
That's the fact.
That's why there's only one Buffett in the world.
On Jan 18 01:54 PM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:
> I am sure we will be getting a lot of "bull" this week and little
> policy for a long time. After all, Obama begged the Congress and
> Bush Administration to do the heavy lifting in order to Socialize
> the economy. All he has to do is take the money and shovel it to
> his contributors.
>
> Now that's "cool".
Those would be as follows: retail, auto, financial, real estate.
Those of you who can go into those garbage dumps and pick winners, you have my hat tip, and I wish you well.
But specifically, regarding the article and the prediction that stocks will run up this particular week, I've been studying stocks and watching markets since the 1960s, and I personally believe it's mere folly to put the tiniest bit of effort out in predicting the week to week or day to day machinations of indices.
However, I wish the author well with this endeavor.
There will be opportunities but mostly for the patient.
On Jan 18 02:35 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:
> I make a habit of being as respectful as possible on this board and
> others but this article taxes my restraint.
>
> And while there may be an Obama bounce, though that is not certain
> as many earnings will be released next week, the structural aspects
> of this decline are worsening as they surface.
>
> Declining estimates of economic growth, rising foreclosures, collapsing
> industrial production, growing estimates of what is needed in the
> stimulus package, rising estimates of banking sector losses and growing
> unemployment are simply the first things that come to mind.
>
> If we face deflation and the corrective actions are not equal to
> the task, we are some ways off from the streets of Barcelona where
> the bulls run.
When the young will discover (of course too late) that Obama will have taxed away their inheritance the enthusiasm will cool off rapidly.
They let Communists post on this board?
news.yahoo.com/s/ynews...
On Jan 18 07:33 PM Laurence wrote:
> I was under the impression that Obama promised that whatever we wanted
> and couldn't afford would soon be free for the taking. I'm having
> a hard time justifying a runup in stock prices under such conditions.
On Jan 18 06:51 PM Borscht wrote:
> Time for the US economy to socialize and evolve. Americans will thrive
> with such things as universal health care, government administered
> no fault auto insurance and a whole bunch of other good things.
>
>
>
> On Jan 18 01:54 PM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:
"But probably the most significant market mover over the next several weeks will be the Obama factor."
... that's BOGUS.
Since Obama was elected in early November, the market has fallen over 15% to date. That's the real Obama factor. Investors and business owners are scared to death of America turning into a euro-socialist hellhole, but thats what Obama, Pelosi, Dodd, Frank and the other DC clowns want to do.
Any more "Obama factor" like that and we will be in the Great Depression 2.0.
as far as economics are concerned, it's pretty hard to argue that democrats are any more socialistic than republicans. the big difference is that republicans are more embarrassed about it. wasn't it ronald reagan who spouted that popular line "government is the problem?" wasn't it the current, outgoing administration who pushed the concept of the "ownership society?" (i don't think what they had in mind is government owning the banks, though.) how nice it all sounded and how popular it was until the roof fell in.
now everyone in government is a socialist.
On Jan 18 02:35 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:
> I make a habit of being as respectful as possible on this board and
> others but this article taxes my restraint.
>
> And while there may be an Obama bounce, though that is not certain
> as many earnings will be released next week, the structural aspects
> of this decline are worsening as they surface.
>
> Declining estimates of economic growth, rising foreclosures, collapsing
> industrial production, growing estimates of what is needed in the
> stimulus package, rising estimates of banking sector losses and growing
> unemployment are simply the first things that come to mind.
>
> If we face deflation and the corrective actions are not equal to
> the task, we are some ways off from the streets of Barcelona where
> the bulls run.
"I'm ready. You're ready. And so are the markets."
After reading this article, I'm convinced the author is trying to convince the reader to jump, blindfolded, and without a parachute..."And so are the markets." Let's see where y'all land.
On Jan 18 01:54 PM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:
> I am sure we will be getting a lot of "bull" this week and little
> policy for a long time. After all, Obama begged the Congress and
> Bush Administration to do the heavy lifting in order to Socialize
> the economy. All he has to do is take the money and shovel it to
> his contributors.
>
> Now that's "cool".
On Jan 18 03:37 PM the ilster wrote:
> I hope your right for the trade I just put on last week SSO. However
> it will be short lived at best. We are going to take out November
> lows this year and shock the world. The avalanche of Debt will bring
> lots of bankruptcies this year and squash any rallies. Keep Hoping
> buddy!
Until then the artical above using the phrase" Bull Run" is just a little premature in my eyes! Short covering is the only movement you see with the Matrkets trading higher.........But somewhere in the future the money will return to the market and that would be the only sign of any kind of a Bull Run!..................... week...?.........don't think so..........GLTA
the nickname alone does display a pretty strong directional bias, and a strong directional bias is the last thing I want to see with an economist, market observer or whatever.
you want my take on the 'shrugging off bad news' thing? well, the market is not holding up in the face of bad news. it has discounted THESE bad news and is now waiting whether they will keep coming in Q1 and q2 or whether they will improve. If they keep coming and get worse, the market will tank, no matter who speaks and however rhetorically perfect and what stimulus is announced.
The only indicator that matters now is employment. No jobs, no recovery, no bull.
Get used to it, your "Obama Factor" (which is the only real reason you wrote that piece) will be irresponsibly short lived.
Sealy Corporation (ZZ), the bedding maker said fourth quarter sales fell 26%.
One of ZZ largest competitors Simmons Beautyrest is in violation of their lending covenants and have a 30 day notice to correct or file for Ch. 11...
If truth be told ZZ is in not much better condition.
Hope you are right on the rally though as I can take more short positions as any rally will be short lived as we remain in a bear market...
Longer-term, for most of 2009 in my opinion, investors will increasingly fret over the pace of layoffs, drops in earnings, and slowdown in all manner of economic activity, both domestically and globally.
Consumers are satiated, and so I doubt demand will be rekindled, no matter how much the government tries to coax people into borrowing to keep overconsuming goods and services that they now recognize they didn't even need in the first place.
I'll go ahead and agree that there is more upside potential than downside risk though.
I do not pretend to know when this happens, but most of the above comments taking issue with the author are offering arguments that have been around for some time. The next move, up or down, will be driven by largely new and thus undiscounted data.
One other thought is that at market tops the vast majority are bullish and fully invested. At bottoms (wherever that is) the vast majority are bearish and likely in cash or bonds.
On Jan 19 09:27 AM Jackson Cash wrote:
> For the Good News Economist:
>
> The only indicator that matters now is employment. No jobs, no recovery,
> no bull.
>
> Get used to it, your "Obama Factor" (which is the only real reason
> you wrote that piece) will be irresponsibly short lived.
On Jan 18 01:54 PM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:
> I am sure we will be getting a lot of "bull" this week and little
> policy for a long time. After all, Obama begged the Congress and
> Bush Administration to do the heavy lifting in order to Socialize
> the economy. All he has to do is take the money and shovel it to
> his contributors.
>
> Now that's "cool".
Sorry if I rambled, but thats the way it is as I see it! good luck- Clark
Phrase for this year - "Critical Mass".
Where were you when Carter & Clinton were running this country ?
Go study more before you comment about Bush.
Blame everything else but yourself is what you belong.
I'm staying mostly in cash right now, and wish the author good luck in his endeavor.
I for one hope Obama can pull this off. I'm a Democrat, but I voted for McCain. I think three factors will influence what comes:
1. Will Obama finally get the elephant out of the closet with our financial system? -- As bad as it may be, honest may be the best policy.
2. Can he educate the population to the fact that what went on the past 15-20 years was a sick economy and that what's occurring now, no matter how bad things get, are putting us on track for a healthier economy in the future?
3. Will people accept doing without for the next decade, or so, things they took almost as an entitlement?
We may not get an Obama bounce at all tomorrow. I think Great Britain thought they had a great idea (that the U.S.A. is thinking of emulating) with the banks -- well -- the markets in Europe sure voted that one down.
Sad, but this bad debt issue could be 1.0 to 4.0, 5.0, ??? GDP? I think the Europeans are now getting a whiff that the entire banking system may be insolvent, at least in Europe and the United States. Bad news...
So there may be no Obama effect at all...
Since I voted for Clinton the first time, I have no problem telling you that his administration continued on with policies that led to increased outsourcing, major increases in the consumer/consumption sector (the box store HQ's in Arkansas is...), as well as major trade imbalances.
First major housing bubbles and problems with real estate-banking sectors started really in the late 70's - 80's.
What happens is when there is no political will to change things, as is the case when the economy is going up, but when things go down, they are given a quick political band-aid. Obama is in a position where things are going down and no quick fixes.
On Jan 18 01:54 PM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:
> I am sure we will be getting a lot of "bull" this week and little
> policy for a long time. After all, Obama begged the Congress and
> Bush Administration to do the heavy lifting in order to Socialize
> the economy. All he has to do is take the money and shovel it to
> his contributors.
>
> Now that's "cool".
On Jan 18 01:54 PM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:
> I am sure we will be getting a lot of "bull" this week and little
> policy for a long time. After all, Obama begged the Congress and
> Bush Administration to do the heavy lifting in order to Socialize
> the economy. All he has to do is take the money and shovel it to
> his contributors.
>
> Now that's "cool".
On Jan 18 06:47 PM Roy M. wrote:
> Big K;
> You are right on the button.
> Pessimists never achieve anything in their lives.
> That's the fact.
> That's why there's only one Buffett in the world.
On Jan 19 03:23 PM xb74 wrote:
> We will have an Obama bounce this week followed by an Obama Crash
> next week when every one sees the numbers haven't changed, only the
> figurehead. By the way the Dems have controlled congress since 06
> all you Bush hatters.
Right now the "real economy" has some "real" troubles that may take some time to work through. No doubt the economic cycle will turn around, one day, as pendulum swings the other way. Just be careful to preserve capital, because it is really hard to make up losses. I have held on to positions out of "hope" before, only to get crushed.
On Jan 18 05:46 PM Big K wrote:
> I can see many people have a negative view of the future of our economy
> and stock market. With the vast majority of people so bearish, I
> can think there is a possibility of a bull run coming soon. When
> everybody is bearish, all who are going to sell have already done
> so, and big money is sitting on the sideline. At this point only
> long-term investors remain, so there are few people to sell on the
> bad news, hence apparent support. The bearish sentiments have been
> priced in the market. Possibly, many of the above bears have put
> in short positions, which is even more bullish. The market usually
> moves in the direction opposite to what the majority expect. This
> makes perfect sense. Everyone has already positioned themselves
> for the anticipated direction. Why would all these chicken littles
> saying armageddon is coming still be invested in the market? Of
> course they are not, because once armageddon comes, it's already
> too late. Therefore, I think there is a higher probability the market
> will go up rather than down.
Don't say he did not warn us!
The problems really came with Reaganomics - but now Voodoo economics is (hopefully) dead for good.
I could never understand why the right-wing fundamentalists who find biological Darwinism so distasteful, will flock to and bow down before and worship the economic Darwinism. FOLKS - there needs to be a balance! We have rushed to the deregulation extreme and now suffer the consequences. While Clinton did nothing to mitigate it, thie really has been the Republican agenda all along. THEY are the ones promoting it.
King Voodoo is dead !! Alleluia !
On Jan 18 02:35 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:
> I make a habit of being as respectful as possible on this board and
> others but this article taxes my restraint.
>
> And while there may be an Obama bounce, though that is not certain
> as many earnings will be released next week, the structural aspects
> of this decline are worsening as they surface.
>
> Declining estimates of economic growth, rising foreclosures, collapsing
> industrial production, growing estimates of what is needed in the
> stimulus package, rising estimates of banking sector losses and growing
> unemployment are simply the first things that come to mind.
>
> If we face deflation and the corrective actions are not equal to
> the task, we are some ways off from the streets of Barcelona where
> the bulls run.
consumers. The best thing Obama could do is to outlaw these
SHORTS!!!!
Ironically, to quote Polyanna:"When you look for the bad in mankind expecting to find it, you surely will."
You don't have to look far.
Now, this discounts the growing unemployment numbers, mortgage defaults and earnings losses, but frankly how else will we ever see a turnaround unless consumer spending "comes back". Isn't the only thing we have to fear is negative media? Now that Obama is in the White House, look for uplifting and positive spin articles from NYT & CNN to flood the market, so that people aren't afraid to buy buy buy...
On Jan 18 05:17 PM X-15 wrote:
> IMHO, i'm still seeing commerce take place everyday. Americans will
> only save until they cannot take it anymore. Then wallets open commerce
> continues,saw it in 82 & 83 nothing has changed.People say this
> is different,WHY, because many of those going down are rich?
>
>
> What will be different this time, is who will come out first, who
> will grow, who will use this fiscal demolition to advantage.
>
>
> On Jan 18 02:17 PM t_avatarici wrote:
You were right about the NY Times and CNN spouting Obama propaganda ad nauseum. And we thought Bush's presidency was the "Imperialist" presidency. Forgetabout it! The mass media has elevated Obama to a deity. It's absolutely revolting if you ask me. The day that the NY times declares bankruptcy will be a fine day. I will enjoy "dancing on their grave". As for Obama. Well what can you expect when one candidate outspends the other by 20:1 and is given a free pass by the media. And wasn't Barrack just a positive campaigner when he accused McCain of playing the race card, and then turned around and played it himself (...did I happen to mention the other candidate is black?) There's only one problem with Barack's comment. McCain NEVER made that statement. But it went unchallenged by the media because the NY times was too busy cooking up a fraudulent and slanderous article on McCain accusing him of cheating on his wife. Funny how once it was proven false there was no retraction or apology by the Times. Ooops.
Let's be honest. Obama is extremely inexperienced and beholden to massive special interests that have no interest in fixing this economy. Trial lawyers, union activists, corrupt judges, and others are "leeches" on an economy that is now on life-support. He has ZERO foreign policy experience. Oh I almost forgot. Joe Biden and HIllary are going to walk him through that one. Yeah right. This guy will be the ultimate "bagholder" victimized by European leaders who want to see us pulled down to their level. And more likley than not bushwhacked by a Putin-led Russia just itching to test Obama's resolve. Too bad that we will find out he has none. This guy is a fraud and charlatan. All talk. No substance whatsoever. We will be paying the price for his inexperience for a long time.
Yank
On Jan 20 09:26 AM Dixie Dawg wrote:
> Completely agree, it seems like every plane I'm on is full to overfull
> (yes, routes & flights have been cut), every mall parking lot
> is, if not completely full, full enough to make a lot of people say
> "what economic downturn?"
>
> Now, this discounts the growing unemployment numbers, mortgage defaults
> and earnings losses, but frankly how else will we ever see a turnaround
> unless consumer spending "comes back". Isn't the only thing we have
> to fear is negative media? Now that Obama is in the White House,
> look for uplifting and positive spin articles from NYT & CNN
> to flood the market, so that people aren't afraid to buy buy buy...
>
Capitalist markets are based on private property. If property rights were mortally wounded under the Bushies, what chance have they under Obama / Pelosi / Frank / Dodd / Reid?
Take your good news and happy oratory and shove it. I'm going to BlanchardOnline.com and putting my money where my mouth is.
On Jan 18 10:25 PM freefall51 wrote:
> Equity has no Clue wrote: "The irony is that the young LOVE obama"
>
>
> When the young will discover (of course too late) that Obama will
> have taxed away their inheritance the enthusiasm will cool off rapidly.
Doesn't look like the markets are cutting Obama any slack -- Dow is down over 200 and falling.
There are too many structural issues out there to have the markets rise even at this histroic moment.
PS: Wish it were otherwise, but that's the way it is.
I heard the NY Times Corp. just got a cash infusion from a Mexican investor to keep them going. I'm not sure how that model will work... Now they charge $5.00 for their Sunday papaer -- the NYT just sits everywhere I've seen it for sale.
On Jan 20 02:03 PM curbs-in wrote:
> Yank:
>
> I heard the NY Times Corp. just got a cash infusion from a Mexican
> investor to keep them going. I'm not sure how that model will work...
> Now they charge $5.00 for their Sunday papaer -- the NYT just sits
> everywhere I've seen it for sale.
On Jan 20 02:03 PM curbs-in wrote:
> Yank:
>
> I heard the NY Times Corp. just got a cash infusion from a Mexican
> investor to keep them going. I'm not sure how that model will work...
> Now they charge $5.00 for their Sunday papaer -- the NYT just sits
> everywhere I've seen it for sale.
Bull got punched in the nose today...
Dow 7,949.09 -332.13 -4.01%
Nasdaq 1,440.86 -88.47 -5.78%
S&P 500 805.22 -44.90 -5.28%
Bull... That's for sure...
I've always found it odd that people in the business of news would have no clue about their own business trends.
Beyond me... I know that the media, especially the print media, has been under pressure, but they should have seen this coming 10 or more years ago.
On Jan 20 03:31 PM yank wrote:
> Don't quote me on this but i thought I heard recently that NYT ad
> revenues for 2008 were roughly 50% of 2007 levels. I also understand
> that circulation is down 35% year over year. I don't question Carlos
> Slim's business savvy but I don't understand the rationale for taking
> a stake. Unquestionably, the print media is going the way of the
> dinosaur, reorganization or not. I think people have had enough of
> reading a paper that tells them who to vote for. About all this paper
> is good for is the bottom of my birdcage. I hope Sulzberger and his
> cronies rot in hell.
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
To The Good News Economist:
Here's a tip: drive too any neighborhood, look at all the dead lawns and the for sale signs. Now drive to a local mall, small or large, notice all the vacancies? Stop at a few shops: food, car dealers, clothing stores, large or small and ask, how's business? That will tell you a hell of a lot more about investing than any of these articles.
On Jan 18 02:35 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:
> I make a habit of being as respectful as possible on this board and
> others but this article taxes my restraint.
>
> And while there may be an Obama bounce, though that is not certain
> as many earnings will be released next week, the structural aspects
> of this decline are worsening as they surface.
>
> Declining estimates of economic growth, rising foreclosures, collapsing
> industrial production, growing estimates of what is needed in the
> stimulus package, rising estimates of banking sector losses and growing
> unemployment are simply the first things that come to mind.
>
> If we face deflation and the corrective actions are not equal to
> the task, we are some ways off from the streets of Barcelona where
> the bulls run.
On Jan 18 01:58 PM Robotto wrote:
> "No Gloom here. Only Good News."
>
> Perhaps the market is not shrugging off bad news. Maybe they are
> just ignoring them like this author is. If that's what the market
> is doing, I would be very scared. This article sounds so desperate
> that it made me feel more scared than I was feeling before. When
> people start willfully ignoring bad news, you know things are really
> bad.
I wonder when (and if) the Obamanoids will realize that one does not think with the emotions. Only crowds do. Herds.
By the way, I am an optimist. Very much so, in fact so much so that I am willing to trust thinking over emotion when making decisions.
Best of luck to you all. Attempt to know your limitations.
"One of the great orators of our times will inspire the world this week."
Let's see...
Dow 7,949.09 -332.13 -4.01%
Nasdaq 1,440.86 -88.47 -5.78%
S&P 500 805.22 -44.90 -5.28%
What was it that Cramer called him after today's mini crash, oh yes... "Babble Oboma." "I'm just telling it like it is", he said.
Bump. Let's keep this article popular so we can keep making fun of it.
On Jan 18 06:47 PM Roy M. wrote:
> Big K;
> You are right on the button.
> Pessimists never achieve anything in their lives.
> That's the fact.
> That's why there's only one Buffett in the world.
On Jan 20 10:21 PM Moral Hazards Amok wrote:
> This one's my favorite.
>
> "One of the great orators of our times will inspire the world this
> week."
>
> Let's see...
>
> Dow 7,949.09 -332.13 -4.01%
> Nasdaq 1,440.86 -88.47 -5.78%
> S&P 500 805.22 -44.90 -5.28%
>
> What was it that Cramer called him after today's mini crash, oh yes...
> "Babble Oboma." "I'm just telling it like it is", he said.
>
> Bump. Let's keep this article popular so we can keep making fun of
> it.
>
>
>
>
If the Dow is down 332 on on his FIRST DAY (OK, 1/2 day),
then I sure don't want any of this kind of "factor".
On Jan 20 08:29 PM Yohei wrote:
> The very large market drop this inauguration day plus the market
> drop since Obama was elected is not auspicious. At all.
>
> I wonder when (and if) the Obamanoids will realize that one does
> not think with the emotions. Only crowds do. Herds.
>
> By the way, I am an optimist. Very much so, in fact so much so that
> I am willing to trust thinking over emotion when making decisions.
>
>
> Best of luck to you all. Attempt to know your limitations.
I expect normal investor and saver to be extremely cautios for the next few years.
On Jan 18 05:46 PM Big K wrote:
> I can see many people have a negative view of the future of our economy
> and stock market. With the vast majority of people so bearish, I
> can think there is a possibility of a bull run coming soon. When
> everybody is bearish, all who are going to sell have already done
> so, and big money is sitting on the sideline. At this point only
> long-term investors remain, so there are few people to sell on the
> bad news, hence apparent support. The bearish sentiments have been
> priced in the market. Possibly, many of the above bears have put
> in short positions, which is even more bullish. The market usually
> moves in the direction opposite to what the majority expect. This
> makes perfect sense. Everyone has already positioned themselves for
> the anticipated direction. Why would all these chicken littles saying
> armageddon is coming still be invested in the market? Of course they
> are not, because once armageddon comes, it's already too late. Therefore,
> I think there is a higher probability the market will go up rather
> than down.
On Jan 18 10:25 PM freefall51 wrote:
> Equity has no Clue wrote: "The irony is that the young LOVE obama"
>
>
> When the young will discover (of course too late) that Obama will
> have taxed away their inheritance the enthusiasm will cool off rapidly.
On Jan 20 10:15 AM yank wrote:
> Dixie:
> You were right about the NY Times and CNN spouting Obama propaganda
> ad nauseum. And we thought Bush's presidency was the "Imperialist"
> presidency. Forgetabout it! The mass media has elevated Obama to
> a deity. It's absolutely revolting if you ask me. The day that the
> NY times declares bankruptcy will be a fine day. I will enjoy "dancing
> on their grave". As for Obama. Well what can you expect when one
> candidate outspends the other by 20:1 and is given a free pass by
> the media. And wasn't Barrack just a positive campaigner when he
> accused McCain of playing the race card, and then turned around and
> played it himself (...did I happen to mention the other candidate
> is black?) There's only one problem with Barack's comment. McCain
> NEVER made that statement. But it went unchallenged by the media
> because the NY times was too busy cooking up a fraudulent and slanderous
> article on McCain accusing him of cheating on his wife. Funny how
> once it was proven false there was no retraction or apology by the
> Times. Ooops.
> Let's be honest. Obama is extremely inexperienced and beholden to
> massive special interests that have no interest in fixing this economy.
> Trial lawyers, union activists, corrupt judges, and others are "leeches"
> on an economy that is now on life-support. He has ZERO foreign policy
> experience. Oh I almost forgot. Joe Biden and HIllary are going to
> walk him through that one. Yeah right. This guy will be the ultimate
> "bagholder" victimized by European leaders who want to see us pulled
> down to their level. And more likley than not bushwhacked by a Putin-led
> Russia just itching to test Obama's resolve. Too bad that we will
> find out he has none. This guy is a fraud and charlatan. All talk.
> No substance whatsoever. We will be paying the price for his inexperience
> for a long time.
>
> Yank
If we complete Q1 without the bad news accelerating - maybe even slowing bad news - we might see some of the money on the sidelines hop in. Fewer earnings forecast cuts and dividends reductions, slowing job loss (not reversing, just slowing) and continued good numbers from select sectors like we're seeing now tops my wish list for establishing a bone fide bottom. Oh - that and no more last minute $16b Merrill Lynch 'we're taking more TARP money and cutting our dividend for 3 years' bombshells from the 'strong, we didn't need TARP in the first place banks' would be helpful.
Until then, it's hard to see us not trading in a range between 7900ish and 9000ish - maybe with the occasional whipsaw above or below.
And it's not too far fetched for the "Good News Economist" to predict a "rally" when we're at the bottom of that range. Just don't repost this article in 10 days at 9000 DJIA and expect a "rallying cry" to get any respect.
;-)
On Jan 18 09:07 PM JaymanThai wrote:
> Dream on Alice you are in Wonderland. This market it going to test
> new lows in the 6500-7000 range before we start seeing bullish movement.
> It is true that some isolated issues may move contrary to this trend
> but they will be few and far between. If you want to play now play
> with skilled stockpickers who have a good reputation, Otherwise,
> steer clear and watch as this unfolds.
> There will be opportunities but mostly for the patient.
You haven't converted me. There will certainly be a continuation of yesterday's rally. My feeling is that one should sell into it and preserve as much of one's skin as possible. There will be better buying opportunities ahead of us.
Best,
Seamus O'Bannion
seamusobannion.blogspo...
On Jan 18 10:25 PM freefall51 wrote:
> Equity has no Clue wrote: "The irony is that the young LOVE obama"
>
>
> When the young will discover (of course too late) that Obama will
> have taxed away their inheritance the enthusiasm will cool off rapidly.
You R;s make up all your own stuff........Bush gave the wealthy tax cuts, Obama wants to FINALLY give the middle class a cut......The wealthy scream like stuck pigs. The middle class pays for everything.......Bush took the money away from the middle class, the economy went to hell, because it is not maintained by the wealthy. How much of those trillions you all made in speculation that killed the economy is being used to help the economy now? Take away their money, then blame the middle class for not keeping the economy going....Hoard those trillions boys !!!
I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT AND SO DO INVESTORS!
However, I disagree and everyone has their own opinions. Personally, when many stocks that make up the Dow are in a DOWNTREND MODE right now, according to INO TREND.COM, and most 1st quarter earnings reports will be lower than expected, I do not see the Light that you see in the Tunnel of Wall Street.
1)New President can't wave a wand like a magician.
2) Unemployment still headed to 10%
3) Foreclosures to double then in 2009
3) Mom & Pop Stores, and even Shopping Malls are closing down around the Country
4)Amidst the biggest Robbery in the History of the World-Wall Street-Washngton, SCAMS,the Credit Crisis, and a spending spree nearing a Trillion dollars of bailouts, and continued Bank Failures
5) Unrest in the Middle East is Far from over
Therefore, my 5 reasons, do not set the stage for a Bull Market as you have painted, rather more of a reality check for potentially testing New Lows from last November are more in order first, before you can walk through the
"LAND MINED FIELDS OF BASIC ECONOMICS"
Hasn't Americans lost enough money these past
3 months to learn that we are on Unstable Grounds
right now and we should step back for awhile?
Maybe late 2010 - after the SP Index hits 500. And Citi and BAC are finally put into receivership after Geithner has wasted another $300 Billion on them.
On Jan 21 09:44 PM sether wrote:
... and marginalization of their regressive influence. The young love
> Obama because he is YOUNG. And he believes, as they do, as does anyone
> else who can see beyond the end of their balance sheet, that being
> poor, ignorant, ill and afraid is no way to go through life in America.
I sincerely wish it were otherwise as I know there are many people who read and post on this site have lost their rear ends the past few months. I know people who have lost their savings, their retirements... People would go back to work if they could, but there's no work.
Desperate situation.
I think they keep this item on Seeking Alpha for the humorus aspect...
On Jan 22 08:23 AM theobannion wrote:
> Are you a minister, sir? I get the distinct feeling that you're a
> minister.
>
> You haven't converted me. There will certainly be a continuation
> of yesterday's rally. My feeling is that one should sell into it
> and preserve as much of one's skin as possible. There will be better
> buying opportunities ahead of us.
>
> Best,
> Seamus O'Bannion
> seamusobannion.blogspo...
I guess Good News is looking for a 700-1000 point upswing?
ROTFLMAO {:D
Until things stabilize, and we see how the 3 mentioned things above turn out, you're not gonna make any killing in the market. The blood is not in the street yet.
Even here the agenda driven actions are rife. Try making an adverse comment about Gold and see how quickly you comments get sabotaged.
On Jan 18 01:58 PM Robotto wrote:
> "No Gloom here. Only Good News."
>
> Perhaps the market is not shrugging off bad news. Maybe they are
> just ignoring them like this author is. If that's what the market
> is doing, I would be very scared. This article sounds so desperate
> that it made me feel more scared than I was feeling before. When
> people start willfully ignoring bad news, you know things are really
> bad.
I look forward to more discussions on seeking alpha as the market waits for no one...
gne