Now that 2009 is off and rolling, many strategists have thrown in their two cents on what is going to happen with the markets, stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs). Byron R. Wien, Chief Investment Strategist of Pequot Capital Management offers the following 10 surprises we could be seeing in 2009:
- In anticipation of a market rebound during the second half of 2009, the S&P 500 will rise to the $1,200 mark. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is a possible play.
- As paper value decreases and the demand for precious metals increases, gold will jump to $1,200, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) would be a good option.
- A jump in commodities sending oil to $80/barrel and natural gas to $9/mcf; United States Oil (NYSEARCA:USO) and Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:VDE) are possible plays.
- The dollar plummets due to low Treasury interest rates, huge borrowing by the Treasury and continuous printing of money. As a result the yen goes to $0.75 and the Euro to $1.69; CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSEARCA:FXY) is one to watch.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield climbs to 4% on inflationary worries iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury (NYSEARCA:IEF) could be influenced.
- China’s growth jumps to 7%, revamping their economy, iShares FTSE/Xinhua 25 Index (NYSEARCA:FXI).
- Falling tax revenues from the financial sector threaten to bankrupt the State of New York and corresponding municipalities.
- Housing prices stabilize, Obama’s stimulus plan sends third and fourth quarter real GDP in the positive, Dow Jones US Real Estate (NYSEARCA:IYR).
- U.S. savings rates diminish, consumer confidence is regained and 2009 sees the best Christmas ever, Retail HOLDRs (NYSEARCA:RTH) would benefit from this.
- Obama softens his bring the troops home slogan and threat of terrorism forces U.S. to keep strong presence in the Middle East, Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense (NYSEARCA:ITA) would be a good option.
The mentioned surprises are all speculation, and on the tone of a broken record, no one can read through the all-mighty crystal ball. Always be cautious and do your research when choosing an investment option.