Earnings Preview: eBay

eBay (EBAY) is expected to report Q4 earnings after market close Wednesday, January 21, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET.

Guidance

Analysts are looking for a profit of 39c on revenue of $2.12B. The consensus range is 37c-41c for EPS, and revenue of $2.02B-$2.28B, according to First Call. Given the weak consumer environment, Jefferies expects eBay's Q4 results to come in toward the low end of expectations and for management to provide a cautious outlook for FY09.

Analyst Views

RBC Capital's checks indicate eBay will report in-line Q4 results but they believe the company's 2009 will be challenging. Collins Stewart, too, sees challenges ahead for the online auctioneer, including that its online advertising will come under "tremendous pressure" this year and may not provide the kind of growth the company projects. Analyst Sandeep Aggarwal said in a note to clients that eBay is losing market share in its core market places business and that the company's growth profile has come down "materially".

As for forward-looking guidance, many analysts believe eBay will be even more conservative than it has been, particularly considering current company-specific challenges and the dilutive impact of recent acquisitions.

Comments

[Wake-Up!:]

eBay will try to spin the numbers and blame the economy, but when you get right down to it, everybody knows it's JD and his cronies.

eBay should be flourishing in times like these. Instead they chose to cheat and alienate it's core customers. The death rattles cometh and the death rattles taketh away.

Long live www.Bonanzle.com

Jan 20 03:37 PM

[Patricia013:]

I'm sure they'll make it look acceptable but then the analysts start digging thru it.....the truth will come out. Sorry but the way they've treated their customers (the sellers) this past year they deserve what they get! I have no pity for a company comitting suicide.

Jan 20 03:46 PM

[RicRoe:]

Mr Donahoe will pump up the growth in listings citing a now useless metric as millions of listings are placed for free by his favored Diamond Sellers.

Mr Donahoe will pump up new PayPal accounts which he will claim are a result of his declaration that sellers may no longer announce they accept checks or moeny orders to complete purchases. Truth is that many new accounts can be attributed to the resurrected Micropayments accounts which require users to open second accounts in order to take advantage of a reduced fee structure.

Mr Donahoe will attribute eBay's decline to the faltering economy, and will fail to shoulder the resopnsibility for failed policies and fee increases which have severely damaged the marketplace.

Mr Donahoe will continue to assert that eBay is on the right path for a better future, ignoring the stampede of small sellers his policies and system changes chased from the core markeplace.

In other words, Donahoe will continue to run like a bull through a china shop, changing the business model from one that was the most successful into one which imitates unsuccessfully so many other Internet retail sites.

Mr Donahoe is used to being a consultant, where he simply makes recommendations, collects a check for his time and effort and walking away.

In assuming the reigns at eBay, Mr Donahoe still performs as if he was in a consulting role, imposing changes and policy revisions into a marketplace with which he has virtually no experience in as a buyer or as a seller.

It is this lack of experience that has brought eBay to the tipping point and has the company facing a steady stream of buyers and sellers bolting to other more user friendly venues.

Sellers are unable to profit from selling on eBay as the fee structure under Mr Donahoe has made it impossible for sellers to offer pricing which eBay was famous for while still allowing sellers to receive a reasonable markup on products listed.

Until Mr Donahoe faces the reality that it is his poorly implemented policy and system changes that have brought the site to its current state of poor performance, eBay can be expected to face further declines in market share over the coming year.

At this stage, buyers and sellers have voted with their feet, and moved to newer and more friendly venues that are much more buyer friendly, and which also enable sellers to offer better pricing while still being able to make a reasonable profit.

The true growth will be in a spread of new and smaller sites which are currently realizing unprecedented expansion due to Mr Donahoe's alienation of buyers and sellers from eBay.

Jan 20 04:10 PM

[User 265729:]

Ebay allows too much shady dealings on its site to really be safe to use most of the time. When you report problems, they "investigate" and find that there is no problem.

Ebay also allows some of these dealers to use something called "Private Listing" so they can shill bid and other poor practices. Some of these users are well known and there are over 1,000 postings about some of these crooks and everyone says the same thing. Ebay does nothing since they are "Power Sellers."

Ebay: Buyer Beware.

Jan 20 04:14 PM

[Elike Seichiro:]

eBay will NEVER go under $10 a share,
here is why:

Some ebay facts:

ebay shares never have and never will drop below $10 a share.
ebay is a safe investment: It's the economy, stupid!
ebay is an internet giant, it will exist forever.
ebay has never and will never lose a lawsuit.
ebay controls the internet: it owns eBay, Paypal and Skype.
ebay values freedom of speech, due process and free and fair trade.
ebay seller fees have decreased.
the feedback system on ebay is fair and does not discriminate against sellers.
ebay hardly ever suspends sellers.
If a seller is suspended, they are automatically reinstated after 5 days (no more faxing documents needed).
ebay offers phone support to assist sellers and buyers.
Paypal does not hold sellers money for 30 days.
ebay values sellers, treats them with dignity, courtesy and respect.
selling on ebay is fun, easy and hassle-free.

Jan 20 05:19 PM

[Wake-Up!:]

@ Elike Seichiro,

It's ok! We understand that you may have unwillingly been forced to drink the kool-aid. We've dialed 911 for you. Please gather what little strength you have left and resist the urge to "spin".

Go to the door and wait for the men in the white jackets to help you. They'll will be there soon. Don't do anything foolish. It's not your fault. Help is on it's way.

Jan 20 05:39 PM

[Idiots:]

This moron hasn't been forced to "drink the ebay kool-aid" this moron works directly for ebay. Every single report in the internet media brings up a plethora of posts like ours, pointing out the real problems at ebay. You think this ignorant company (which silences seller comments, deletes sellers posting from the sellers own message boards) wouldn't have plants posting this ridiculous ebay propoganda? This idiot DonaHOLE had ebay's stock down an amazing 54% PRE-crash. He's an idiot and Ebay is in freefall, period.

Jan 20 06:06 PM

[Goldner:]

I guess you didn't read the DJ news post about a trust filer through GS as the broker to sell 2,400,000 million shares around Jan 8,09

I would trust that this filer knows something and EBAY is going to go lower much lower


On Jan 20 05:19 PM Elike Seichiro wrote:

> eBay will NEVER go under $10 a share,
> here is why:
>
> Some ebay facts:
>
> ebay shares never have and never will drop below $10 a share.
> ebay is a safe investment: It's the economy, stupid!
> ebay is an internet giant, it will exist forever.
> ebay has never and will never lose a lawsuit.
> ebay controls the internet: it owns eBay, Paypal and Skype.
> ebay values freedom of speech, due process and free and fair trade.
>
> ebay seller fees have decreased.
> the feedback system on ebay is fair and does not discriminate against
> sellers.
> ebay hardly ever suspends sellers.
> If a seller is suspended, they are automatically reinstated after
> 5 days (no more faxing documents needed).
> ebay offers phone support to assist sellers and buyers.
> Paypal does not hold sellers money for 30 days.
> ebay values sellers, treats them with dignity, courtesy and respect.
>
> selling on ebay is fun, easy and hassle-free.

Jan 20 09:05 PM

[keepinitreal:]

How much did you get for that litany of garbage, all totally without knowledge or substance.You are alien to any concept of integrity spruiking such purile crap.


On Jan 20 05:19 PM Elike Seichiro wrote:

> eBay will NEVER go under $10 a share,
> here is why:
>
> Some ebay facts:
>
> ebay shares never have and never will drop below $10 a share.
> ebay is a safe investment: It's the economy, stupid!
> ebay is an internet giant, it will exist forever.
> ebay has never and will never lose a lawsuit.
> ebay controls the internet: it owns eBay, Paypal and Skype.
> ebay values freedom of speech, due process and free and fair trade.
>
> ebay seller fees have decreased.
> the feedback system on ebay is fair and does not discriminate against
> sellers.
> ebay hardly ever suspends sellers.
> If a seller is suspended, they are automatically reinstated after
> 5 days (no more faxing documents needed).
> ebay offers phone support to assist sellers and buyers.
> Paypal does not hold sellers money for 30 days.
> ebay values sellers, treats them with dignity, courtesy and respect.
>
> selling on ebay is fun, easy and hassle-free.

Jan 21 12:43 AM

[leapingcat:]

Nice spoof there Elike Seichiro (I'm sure that you're really an anagram, but I haven't worked it out yet) By blatantly listing a range of 'facts' that are so obviously not facts, you have shown up Ebay's real situation as effectively as any rant can. Once again the pinprick of wit bursts the balloon of spin.

Jan 21 05:28 AM

[arlin:]

your nuts!


On Jan 20 05:19 PM Elike Seichiro wrote:

> eBay will NEVER go under $10 a share,
> here is why:
>
> Some ebay facts:
>
> ebay shares never have and never will drop below $10 a share.
> ebay is a safe investment: It's the economy, stupid!
> ebay is an internet giant, it will exist forever.
> ebay has never and will never lose a lawsuit.
> ebay controls the internet: it owns eBay, Paypal and Skype.
> ebay values freedom of speech, due process and free and fair trade.
>
> ebay seller fees have decreased.
> the feedback system on ebay is fair and does not discriminate against
> sellers.
> ebay hardly ever suspends sellers.
> If a seller is suspended, they are automatically reinstated after
> 5 days (no more faxing documents needed).
> ebay offers phone support to assist sellers and buyers.
> Paypal does not hold sellers money for 30 days.
> ebay values sellers, treats them with dignity, courtesy and respect.
>
> selling on ebay is fun, easy and hassle-free.

Jan 21 09:11 AM

[arlin:]

Ebay is still a cash machine.
Ebay takes more from the sellers then last year.
Ebay new search is a failure.
Ebay advertising on seller sites is confusing,but free for Ebay.
Ebay's empowered buyers are ruthless,without remorse,and destroy sellers on a whim.(This is a plus for Ebay's new business model)
Ebay's "service" for sellers is non-existent.
Ebay is" one of the worst companies to work for."
Ebay is purposly destroying it's uniqueness,to become another big e retailer.
Paypal is it's only growth engine.Monopolistic?
Skype ,may or may not work out long term,or be sold .
We now need to see how all of the above has benefited Ebay.
We need to understand that these changes have come at a cost,and if Ebay is a more profitable company.....then JD gets a raise....
We need to see Ebay's competition growing into the business Ebay has left behind,and how that will effect Ebay going foward.
good luck.

Jan 21 09:36 AM

[Et tu, Brute!:]

I hope Meg DOES run for California Governor.

There will be a spotlight on the machinations of ebay full force and what public has missed all the viciousness will be revealed.

First, on ebay.

And then Meg herself.

On John Donahoe

And the Board of Directors.

I really think that Board of Directors needs to be held more accountable than they have been. Shows deplorable decision-making skills.

Regardless of whether you are pro Meg or not, she was indeed a large rock for the ebay Board to hide behind.

But not any more.

Jan 21 12:12 PM

[Philip Cohen:]

“The facilitating of fraud by eBay: a submission to government”

www.auctionbytes.com/f...

A revised draft of my submission to government regarding eBay’s blatant facilitating of “shill bidding” by their application of the absolutely anonymous bidding alias (ie, “Bidder 'n' ”) in Australia, U.K., Ireland and the Philippines:

Sorry, but it is more than a few paragraphs. Meaningful comment thereon from mature, thinking eBayers is invited.

Jan 21 01:38 PM

[Roberm73:]

Ebay was had been whitewashed, beating up and overpriced for some time. It should be flourishing. It is not. Clear signs management needs a shake up. Skip this stock, there are better one's to be had.

Jan 21 03:37 PM

[x_powerseller:]

EBay earnings slide 30% in fourth quarter

www.marketwatch.com/Ne...

John Donahooooooooooo called his customers “the sellers” nothing more than “noise”. Hope you are hearing it now loud and clear.

He is destroying EBay. FIRE THE IDIOT and send him back to business school!

Jan 21 04:58 PM

[Bob C:]

Well, the earnings are now in, and eBay has a loss of 30% for Q4.

Donahoe is cranking up the spin-o-meter, trying to gloss over Q4 results with how well they did in this tough environment.
I'm sure that he was a spider in some former life.

Folks, eBay is a lost cause.
If you own shares, sell them, or you will get burned!
If you sell there, look for other venues, or you will get burned!
If you buy there, you have my sympathy, and you will get burned!

Jan 21 05:05 PM

[Com-mon-sence:]

In olden days when the world was uncivilized market was defined as a place where sellers could get togther, and amidst healthy competion sell their goods, it helped to evolve civilized societies and a systematic trade.
But, modern day civilized CEO drags the sellers out of a Market to create a Market Place....hmm...am I missing something.... Common Sence or may be it is Human evolution...
Mr. Donhavenoclue should realize and step aside for someone else before he makes situation worse like Mr. Buhh...

Jan 21 05:52 PM

[Allan kraig:]

Time for JD to man up & take the blame for his own failures & lack of real selling experience before his disruptive innovation theory spins out of control .. He could actually turn this around in minutes if he would just take time to talk to the people who actually use & built eBay to what it is .. JD is trying to run eBay by reading a book with no practical experience is on the same plane as me trying to do brain surgery because I read a book one time & saw a movie (hannible lol) ..

JD trying to blame the economy for the eBay slow down is like a new teen age driver blaming the tree for hitting the car after an accident ... It's the nut holding the wheel that steered the car into the tree that is to blame, a real captain lets the buck stop at himself when there is a mishap .. Its a weak leader that blames everything around him, especially when you see that amazon post its best qtr ever & its a fact of life that venues like eBay florish in hard times not decline ..

You have a guy who never sold anything in his life (except girl scout cookies) and never even actually sell anything on eBay trying to tell others how to do it??

If he was a real man & wanted to turn this around all he would need do is confess he #*#@^-up, sit dowm with some real experienced sellers (not the jaded diamond sellers), get their input, go read the boards & see what the real complaints from the actual eBay user's are, Then sit down on a radio show or some other venue & rally the troops to action ..

Funny the real eBay'ers are a community & are very forgiving if approached with dignanty, give them the respect they deserve & have earned & talk this situation out like a good coach should .. If he would just take advantage of the community spirit that was already built into the site before he attemped to tank the company with his lack of real world experience .. Allan Kraig

Jan 21 10:59 PM