iRobot (IRBT) is slated to report its Q4 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to report a loss of $0.23 per share on revenue of $100.8 million.
IRBT favors adding to its earnings-driven extended-hours performance in follow-on regular session trade. It has widened its trade 18 times, reversed nine times and once recorded a flat evening move followed by a robust next-day move over the 28 reports we've tracked. In the near term, the stock favors widening as well, doing so in four of the last five quarters.
Looking deeper into the data, longs will notice the stock has responded to earnings with a gain 18 times, widening that move 12 times, or 67% of the time. The downside trend is also convincing; the stock has declined nine times, widening its move in six events, or 75% of the time.
On Oct. 23, 2012, IRBT cratered 13.9% in night trade after setting its Q4 guidance below expectations. The stock moved deeper in the red the next day, closing the Oct. 24 regular session down 19%.
On July 24, 2012, IRBT gained 8.7% in after-hours trade after blowing away Q2 expectations. The stock soared higher the next day, closing the July 25 regular session up 17.9%.
On April 24, 2012, IRBT declined 2.8% in after-hours trade after beating on Q1 and setting mixed guidance for its FY 2012. The stock slumped lower the following day, ending the April 25 regular session off 6.6%.
On Feb. 8, 2012, IRBT plummeted 20.3% in after-hours trade after missing Q4 revenue estimates and setting its outlook below the Street consensus. The stock was punished for deeper losses the next day, closing the Feb. 9 regular session down 34.2%.
On Oct. 25, 2011, IRBT advanced 5.1% in after-hours trade after posting better-than-expected results and in-line guidance. The stock soared the following day, closing the Oct. 26 regular session up 17.4%.
On July 26, 2011, the stock gained 4.6% after a Q2 earnings beat, hikes guidance. Shares reversed and closed down 3.5% the next day.
On April 26, 2011, IRBT declined 3.6% in evening trade despite beating quarterly expectations. The stock tumbled deeper in the red the following day, ending the April 27 regular session down 7.9%.
On February 9, 2011, the stock edged up 0.07% in evening trading after a Q4 beat and guidance that was in line with the Street view. Shares came back with a robust 6.6% gain the following day.
On Oct. 27, 2010, IRBT jumped 8.5% in evening trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Oct. 28 regular session up 9.4%.
On July 28, 2010, the stock jumped 13.3% in after-hours trading after the company swings to Q2 profit that easily beat expectations. Shares rose a slimmer 6.9% the next day.
On April 28, 2010, the stock jumped 19.3% in after-hours trading after a convincing Q1 beat and strong guidance. Shares soared an even stronger 32.8% the following day.
On Feb. 17, 2010, IRBT edged down 0.3% in after-hours trade despite beating Q4 expectations. It added slightly to its downside the following day, ending the Feb. 18 regular session down 0.4%.
On Oct. 21, 2010, the stock was flat in evening trading after a Q3 beat and mixed guidance. The stock rose 16.7% the next day.
On July 22, 2009, the stock edged up 0.4% after a Q2 beat but guidance for Q3 that was below the Street. Shares tumbled 14.6% the following day.
On April 22, 2009, IRBT jumped 12.2% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 expectations. The stock leaped higher in the April 23 regular session, ending up 19.3%.
On Feb. 11, 2009, IRBT advanced 2.8% in evening trade despite missing expectations and setting guidance below the Street view. The stock firmed even higher the next day, rising 8.6% in the Feb. 12 regular session.
On Oct. 22, 2008, the stock jumped 10.5% during evening trading after a Q3 beat. Shares reversed and closed down 10.4% the following day.
On July 23, 2008, the stock advanced 6.5% during evening trading after a Q2 beat. The advance improved to 8.8% the next day.
On April 30, 2008, IRBT tumbled 14% in the after-hours on the heels of disappointing guidance. The stock narrowed its downside in the May 1 regular session, losing 11% by the closing bell.
On Feb. 19, 2008, the stock gained 4.5% during evening trading after the company reports ahead of the Street with Q4 revenue and guides above. The gain was pared to 0.4% the next day.
On Oct. 24, 2007, the stock gained 8.3% during evening trading after IRBT reported in line with Q3 revenue and guides above Street for full year revenue. The gain swelled to 15.9% by the closing of regular trading the next day.
On July 25, 2007, IRBT edged up 0.5% in the evening hours after reporting a loss in line with the Street estimate and raising its revenue view. The stock gained 3% the next day.
On April 25, 2007, the stock fell 1.7% during evening trading after the company reported its Q1 results. Shares rebounded to close up 6.3% the next day.
On Feb. 12, 2007, IRBT tumbled 14.8% in after-hours trade after the company missed on Q4 revenue and issue disappointing guidance. The stock held much of that decline the next day's regular session, losing 14.6% by the closing bell.
On October 26, 2006, IRBT edged up 0.6% in evening trade on improved Q3 results from a year ago. However, shares failed to hold their gains and closed the next day session down 7.6%.
On July 31, 2006, IRBT rose 5.6% in night trade after topping Q2 estimates. Shares soared the following day, closing the regular session up 17.8%.
On May 2, 2006, IRBT jumped 7.9% in after hours when the company reported improved Q1 results from a year earlier. It added to its gains the next day, closing the regular session up 8.2%.
On February 14, 2006, IRBT dropped 8.1% in night trade when it missed Q4 and FY estimates. Shares sank further the next day, closing the regular session down 22.5%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.