Sirius XM's Latest Pricing Move Helps the Bottom Line 155 comments
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While consumers may not appreciate a price increase for any product, investors most certainly understand the dynamics of what such an increase means. For Sirius XM (SIRI), the impact of their recently announced price increases will surely help the bottom line as well as cash flow.
The company will soon be rolling out a $2 per month price increase on their “Family Plan”. In general, the “Family Plan” are additional receivers activated on an account. Typically, satellite radio has seen about 20% of their self paying subscriber base in the Family Plan category. Thus, out of 20 mil. subscribers, there are 4 mil. that would fit into this category and those 4 mil. delivered about $28 mil. in revenue each month. If we were to assume that the price increase would cause a 10% drop (a high estimate in my opinion) in the existing Family Plans, we would see 3.6 mil. Family Plan subs left, each paying $2 more than they were. The price increase would effectively give a $4.4 mil. per month raise to the revenue line of Sirius XM, bringing revenue to $32.4 mil. The fact of the matter is that it would take a subscriber drop of over 20% to make the move a net negative. That kind of backlash simply is unlikely.
Meanwhile, the company is also going to charge for the Internet feed of the service. The $3 per month charge means that subscribers will no longer get to listen over the net unless they pay. This move makes devices like the Logitech Squeezebox, which uses the Internet feed, become a $3 per month device rather than free as in the past. Royalties for on-line listening are higher, so the company will be able to offset some costs, but in real terms, the take rate on the Internet feed may be more than what people initially think. If we assume that 4 million subscribers take up the added cost, that represents $12 million more in revenue each month.
Combine these two increases, and the company will be seeing an additional $16.4 million in revenue each month. While this may not seem tremendous, it is nearly $200 million per year added to the coffers. The other item to consider is the cash infusion that will come from subscribers who will pay early to lock in the lower rates. People look for value. When XM satellite radio did a price increase from $9.99 to $12.95, they allowed subscribers to pay ahead to lock in the lower rate. The response was measurable, and the cash on hand for the company increased. For Sirius XM, with various debt issues, additional cash is a good thing. The company will be getting $7 per month more from my account:
EXISTING ACCOUNT
Main Subscription with Best Of XM - $15.95
Second Subscription —————-$6.99
Third Subscription —————— $6.99
TOTAL—————$29.93
NEW PRICING
Main Subscription with Best Of and Internet - $18.95
Second Subscription ————————–$8.99
Third Subscription —————————-$8.99
TOTAL———————-$36.93
The bottom line is that this move by Sirius XM helps the bottom line, and helps the health of the company. It allows the business model to be modified so that the company will appear more attractive not only to potential lenders, but to the street as well. Metrics such as ARPU will see a positive bump. From my own account, I will be paying $7, or $2.33 per account, per month more than I once was if I opt for the Internet feed. The price increase helps add revenue (and deferred revenue), helps defray costs, and is not so offensive that it will spurn mass cancellations. From a business perspective, this is a positive move for the company.
Position: Long Sirius XM
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This article has 155 comments:
Disappointed American
Anyway, as an XM sub for so long, I love XM, but it was on the chopping block BEFORE these price increases and I make a very good living. I think you are highly underestimating the amount of people who suffer from this downturn, it is very far reaching. As soon as the price increases hit, it is definitely goodbye to the online feed. I have a family package too and my sister and girlfriend may bail out with the extra expense. As a long time sub, all this increase does is remind you that you pay $13/month or $7/month and how easily you can stop paying that and pick it up again later if the company is still around. I hate regular radio and don't like listening to my iPod unless I'm working our or running, but I do have an iPod connector in my car and will tough it out in these tough times. A lot of people will be doing the same.
I think you need to change your disclosure to VERY VERY VERY LONG Sirius XM.
Is it different in the US? Is the average person really cutting spending and removing luxury items? Do you actually feel poorer right now than usual? When I read comments like "people will be cancelling SiriusXM because of the recession" I am truly wondering if things are so bad that you can no longer afford $12.95 monthly down there???
The media isn't making up the fact that people are being laid off and that companies are losing money or seeing drastic shortfalls in revenue. My company reduced salaries 10% across the board in lieu of firing people, but I'm sure we will get to that. I think there are a few industries that are shielded from the downturn, but it is here and it is real. Ask someone who works in the consumer electronics or tech business. Ask someone who works for a retailer. If it hasn't hit you yet, it will.
The main reason this increase is bad is the fact that is serves as a reminder to people. "Hey, remember that you pay me $13 a month? Yeah, me, your buddy SiriusXM. You've been giving me $13/month for the past 4 years. Yeah, I know you forgot about it because you got so used to just paying, but I just wanted to give you a big reminder tha tyou pay for me!"
This is the biggest problem. It made me scratch my head a bit and ask myself, do I really need to be paying for this right now?
On Jan 23 10:51 AM Sirius Long Hauler wrote:
> I'm curious about the impact of the recession in the US to the general
> public. Here in Canada, I read news about the Canadian economy going
> south every day, and yet my daily routine / spending has not changed
> one bit. Without the media, I'd say the majority of people I know
> would not even know that we are in a recession at all.
>
> Is it different in the US? Is the average person really cutting
> spending and removing luxury items? Do you actually feel poorer
> right now than usual? When I read comments like "people will be
> cancelling SiriusXM because of the recession" I am truly wondering
> if things are so bad that you can no longer afford $12.95 monthly
> down there???
Increasing revenues from existing customers is the easiest way to to add to the bottom line as long as the content remains a value. The key to growing the company is new subscribers. Besides new car subscribers there are a couple of other key areas that new customers are waiting on:
The major league baseball contract and the combination Sirius-XM unit.
There is no question in my mind that baseball with it's long season will be a big winner to satellite radio. The hardware unit will simplify the process and reduce confusion for new customers.
The elimination of the Free feed will require those using it on portable devices to:
1. Pay the 2.99 or give up their usage, reducing royalty costs for the company
2. Sign up for a full subscription program capped pricing, with the new a la carte radio or any other radio, and pay the additional 2.99 for your own feed
3. Pay the 12.95 Internet feed price without a radio to continue to use the feed on all of your devices.
4. Cancel your subscription to Sat Rad and be forever banished to Terrestrial Radio and your cool music downloads to your MP3
In all of the above scenarios except #4, the company is simply managing costs and generating revenue, while laying the foundation for the future use of its excellent WIFI content.
Raising the additional subscriber accounts by $2 is a reasonable request and a necessary revenue generator for the company IMHO. I have 1 Main Subscription which I pay annually for, and 3 additional accounts that I have also paid on an annual basis. Two of my additional accounts are for family members that do not reside with me. The 6.99 a month was a great deal compared to the 12.99 that they would have had to pay for their own account. It also gave me an affordable way to give these as gifts with annual subscriptions. Neither of these two accounts used the internet feed, free or otherwise, so the 2.99 won't be an issue. For a total of $48 annually these two full subscriptions will be maintained, still at a discount 3.96 per month times 2, or around $95 per year.
Again I think that the company is doing what it needs to do to become FCF positive and to bring in a longer term profit. In these difficult economic times, being able to get good value for your dollar is more important than ever. Satellite Radio is an inexpensive form of entertainment and a necessary Oasis during most peoples grueling commute to work. In my opinion this is a very responsible way to generate additional revenue while managing costs.
I agree that the media does not report economic conditions correctly. Economics in Michigan has been in a recession mode a lot longer than the media announced. Economic indicators on a national level aren't accurate for people who live in areas dominated by similar industries. An industry being down for more than two years is unusual. The ripple effect of any industry being down that long will eventually hit even the most balanced Economic areas. GDP is an inefficient indicator of truly how the economy is going. The excessive growth in one or two areas may give a false impression of how the whole economy is doing. Its like expecting the Popular vote in the Presidential election to match who the winner is. More often than not, the positive number gives you the winner. Unfortunately, a lopsided loss or win will skew the results.
On Jan 23 10:37 AM kb5nsd wrote:
> I am both a stockholder and a customer. I currently have the $12.95
> base plan plus one $6.99 radio on the family plan. I will be dropping
> the $6.99 radio, turning off the internet feed, and reducing the
> base to the $9.99 music only plan. If the price goes up again, I'll
> probably drop it entirely. With all of the other choices available,
> the service just isn't worth that much to me (especially since they
> axed Fine Tuning).
On Jan 23 12:42 PM voogie61 wrote:
> You're actually sweating a 2 dollar increase? Please! Maybe you
> should just drop all your subs and go back to Terrestrial radio.
> Let me know how NASCAR, NFL, NHL NBA, NPR and commercial free music
> stations sound on your radio?
>
>
> On Jan 23 10:37 AM kb5nsd wrote:
I think comment posters should have to state whether or not they are SIRI shareholders. I guarantee that most of the angry posts are from shareholders that are still hoping and praying that very biased articles like the ones posted here will get the stock back up to $9/share. Face reality people, you won't see $9/share again in your life time. You may not even see the $0.11/share if they file for bankruptcy (I'm not saying they will, but it isn't looking good). Common shareholders are the LAST people to get paid, if there is any money left at all.
Don't get me wrong, I LOVE SATELLITE RADIO. I was a shareholder of both companies, I still believe it is a GREAT product, but in there times, you have to think about how others are thinking and feeling and, unfortunately, I think this will be one of the things to go.
I haven't decided to ditch my sat radio yet, but the online feed is definitely going. Not worth $3/mo to me.
Good luck to everyone who is feeling the pinch. Hand in there. For those of you who don't know what we are talking about and how we can't afford $2 extra / month, be thankful you don't know what this feels like and hope that you don't end up in the same position in the near future.
I don't understand how your saving money by getting rid of an Internet Feed service at $3/month that you didn't subscribe to before. Puzzling.
By the way I am and have been a subscriber and investor in the company for years. The re-evaluation process that you speak of will work to the pro and con of folks making a decision regarding the fees associated. Those that use the free feed and enjoyed it and use it on other portable products will pay the fee if they value it. Those that borrowed the feed from a subscriber and have been exposed to a now valued product may subscribe.
My point is, not everyone is going to cancel and yes, some will drop their additional less valued subs. Going forward I believe the end result will be a stronger business model for the company which in turn will generate a stronger product line with paid for partnerships with the music industry through royalty contracts.
I didn't say that I would save money by dropping the internet fee. I said it is not worth $3/mo to me and it makes me rethink what I'm paying for. Something I didn't think about before. So I'm not sure why you are puzzled. Maybe your puzzlement is more due to the fact that you may still be dizzy from the spiraling nose dive the stock has been in and the massive amount of losses you've sustained. I can smell a delusional investor thousands of miles away through the internet tubes.
I was in your shoes as XM dropped from the 40s to the teens. Luckily I got out without doing too badly, but I hung on too long for the wrong reasons. I believe in the industry, I like the product, but you need to take a step back and realize that you are delusional about the stock and the companies performance over the next few years. I had the same thoughts, posted comments to articles, wrote to the authors of the articles, but it won't move the stock. It doesn't matter what you or I think or what we post online...
Good luck bro
I find it ironinc that for months people on this board are saying "I would gladly pay more, donate more anything to rescue the stock" then when service increases come in that effect very few, and have no effect on basic service, everyone goes scrambling for the door.
You wrote:
I haven't decided to ditch my sat radio yet, but the online feed is definitely going. Not worth $3/mo to me.
Saying that the internet feed is definitely going to me implied that it was a choice that you were making and had not yet made about your sat radio yet. Now if you were referring to the Free Feed than that will not be a choice, the company is discontinuing it.
Regarding your astute investing decisions and your concern for my state of mind..... congratulations and thanks. Regarding your sense of smell and the internet tubes, good luck with that.
I think the following will come from this change:
1. Much needed short-term cash
2. Start to establish a music only intenet package (for iphones, etc.)
3. With perhaps a premium content online package for more dollars.
4. Perhaps there are partnerships being formed (apple, microsite, etc) which would require an internet only service fee.
I sure hope so.
For full disclosure, I am a long time shareholder and stand to benefit a great deal if the stock price increases (no, it’s not my retirement money or a significant portion of my net worth, nor do I need it to jump 3000% to recoup my losses). Your assertion that it will not see $9/share in this lifetime is also not tenable – if you assume that they do not file bankruptcy (which you seem to be saying), then you also assume that they will be able to maintain revenue and handle the debt that is strangling current share price –in this scenario it is certainly possible to see it hit $9/share at some point. I’m not saying anytime soon, but to make a sweeping generalization that it will never again go that high reveals a different bias.
To answer your question, if your serious, I cant tell but if you are its not a matter of how many shares it has tons of factors...
Blocks of shares affect movement, if there are more buyers than sellers during any time frame..etc...The volume of bids vs. asks...etc...
No magic number sorry...Market Makers have a huge influence on price, as does option trading on the underlying stock..
If you have 100 buyers asking to buy stock at any given moment and you have 50 bidders selling stock, its going to go up fast...If there purchases are equal, for arguments sake and to majke it easy...
The only silver lining is reserved for satellite radio subscribers. There's a good chance that bailout funds will be set aside to take on Sirius' debt once they file for bankruptcy. The main reason I believe this is because this new socialist administration certainly wants to kick conservative talk radio off the air. Bailout funds can be used by the government to consume Clear Channel, who's in dire straits, else pass "Fairness Doctrine" legislation. In order to keep Limbaugh and Hannity from using the Sirius escape route, the government must take it over, too.
Either way, the common stock is worth zero, so this company is no longer an investment option. Unless, of course, you want to go short, but 10 cents isn't really worth it, in my view.
These actions are necessary going forward and I applaud this approach to increase the bottom line. I do not feel that it will be a negative for the company. I agree with Tyler that this is good news for the newly merged entity.
Long Sirius XM
You're a genius! Thanks for the advice and wisdom. Now I can sell all my shares--and will do so at 9:31A on Monday. Thank you, thank you, thank you, for coming by and letting me know what I should do (and why!). I'm impressed with your logic and adroit computations. What was I thinking? Well, just wanted to say I apreciate you so much for finally helping (I guess me AND everyone here) out! I feel bad even that I don't have to pay you. Normally, advice like yours costs an arm and a leg. To think I just got lucky and found you on a blog. I can't wait to tell my other investor friends about you. Anytime you can pass on any other tips and such, I would greatly appreciate your posts..keep 'em coming! Thanks again...
Great comment.
Are you aware that your FREE internet feed was costing the company money??? They had to pay royalty fees at a higher rate than Sat/Rad. Why not inhance your FRIENDS listening experience by making him pay you for the $3 internet feed (outstanding 128kb feed) or get his own damn sub. Why is the company losing money....idiots like you are giving away the companies services...and then whining and crying about it. Cancel and go away. Customer Service has more things to worry about than to listen to crybabies all day long.
What? You've got to be kidding me. That there is even one comment to that regard apalls me. Look. As 163888 said, SIRI is not a necessity. Therefore, none of 100% of the subs NEEDS to have this service. They WANT this service, and pay for it. How much does your cell package cost? Another service NOT a necessity, and people pay dearly for it. When your rates go up, do you drop your cell service? How 'bout your Comcast cable subscription? Your high speed internet service? Do you just drop any of these NON NECESSITIES because they raised your monthly price?
The deal is that cost increases are passed on to the comsumer right and left for anything and everything. Why the increases? Because life continues to appear to cost more because our dollar continues to lose value. But just as common shareholders, We the Consumers are the N's of the world. Business drives the bus and we are the passengers who pay, and pay, and keep paying. Look, I sympathize with anyone who can't pay their bills, etc... but of course, if that were you, you wouldn't be blogging about stocks, thus wouldn't be here now would you? But for a sub service like SatRad, to be up in arms about a $2 a month increase for a service you enjoy... What? I don't get it. In a few years, you'll be paying $15 for a Royal w/cheese...what will you say then?
This increase is exactly what SIRI needs to do. Jeez, dudes, I pay about $90 for high-speed internet and premium cable combined. Talk about a cash cow! (hence Comcast's share price with now almost the same amount of subs as SIRI). I wish SIRI could raise their rates another $5 on top of this. You'd be surprised how many people wouldn't cancel. And whoever then can't affford it, just cancel and live with the free terrestrial...no sweat. But enough being up in arms over a $2 increase. Pretty pathetic. Let's face it the service is drastically under-priced. Plus with higher prices, you'd need less subs. Simple economics. Think about it. A six pack of beer is $8. How many sixers do you buy a month?...go to a bar and buy ONE shot for $8. where else do your entertainment dollars go? A ticket to ONE stupid rock show is $75 minimum. I think SIRI should eventually do a radical rate increase, separate the wheat from the chaffe, be left with the serious SatRad people and become a more viable business. The Street would love it.
If anyone feels like attacking me or my high horse (lol), think twice. I realize times are tough and getting tougher. But in tough times, prices go up, it's that simple....esp for non-essential goods and services. I have empathy for anyone struggling...and who would still like to have their toys. Been there, I've lived out of the car before and had no toys. But, you've got to get real. SIRI is a business and they have raise prices like any business facing viability issues or just to keep profit margins. Without enough profit, you're not a business, you're out of business. IMHO
Well said...
We are now getting down to the next step in this company's maturity. They have 19M plus subscribers attention. Some who found the additional radios on the Family Plan a great opportunity to overcome some of the hassle of portability are upset that a great deal is now only a good deal. OK, make a decision based on your ability to afford the service or not. Those who drop it will be back.... at an even higher rate because as s162 has said, costs go up and for the things we enjoy, we pay.
I am in the camp of thinking like JamesPS above. This internet free feed discontinuation, with only the Premium Feed being available moving forward, is a great model for things to come. Most innovative software applications are now geared toward the internet and seamless services at one point of contact. Moving in the direction of WIFI is an important next step that will remove many of the portability problems and allow Sirius Xm's content to become seamlessly integrated with all the push to listen / buy software app's being made available.
Generating a pay for service model also allows a means to pay for that premium content in a variety of ways. That's why I believe that this as others have already said, is an important next step. Complain as you want, but the days of quality content on the internet being free are fast becoming fewer.....
OK, so here we go into week 4 out of 52 in 2009 and look what's happening. Nothing. Look what all this nothing is doing to everyone. Dow closes today @ 8077. Are you kidding me? I have said this before. Too many money managers are playing with their peepees and "afraid" to commit money. Look where that's gotten us (and them). Again, nowhere. It's stupid. And because of it, everyone suffers but are we tanking? No. Look at these earnings reports...no different than any other quarter. Some beats, some misses. I mean, people are waiting for some armageddon, THEN, they'll jump in??... but it's not going to happen. The new Stim package support is on its way and the market's not going anywhere. What would be the reason to take the market lower? Can anyone tell me? Instead, these guys are playing with themselves. Standing around and waiting. FOR WHAT? And further what's this, suddenly no one will commit money until they have a guarantee the market won't ever go down. See, they're trying to take all the banks down but they're too chicken to go for it because they know they can't. And we see they can't tank this market. They've been trying this week harder than last few weeks but still nothing. All we're getting is a big duh... going nowhere and making no money. People need to get over their little anxieties and get back to making money in stocks. Let's face it. The stock market is loaded with sissies. We've got to be ready for some kind of meaningful rally very soon. So what we now have is Sept-bad. Oct-bad. Nov-bad. Dec-bad(but not as bad). Jan-bad. That's 5 straight months. Got to be a breakout soon of this malaise. I'm sick of bad.
The company is most certainly at the next level of evolution. I would even say overdue. I don't want to see anyone HAVE to pay more since we're all being pinched more everyday. But if there is any service that could be more expensive for what it delivers, it's SATRAD. IMHO
My friend right now uses my internet account for free. When I told him the sirius was now going to chatge a fee he said that he did not have a problem paying the $3.00 a month.
I am however against the rate hike to family plan subscribers. I think it will become a down fall.
I own cable TV in my home, I can get 4 recievers, but I pay one flat rate for the service. When I get satellite radio, I pay for a service on each reciever... I am 1 customer, so why should I be double charged for a service I already own. The math doesn't add up on the consumers end and I think people will get smart to this con game.
Guys, people are mad because the gravy train is leaving the station. It is understandable after all, because now instead of paying 6.99 because they are using some friends subscription FAMILY plan they will have to pay another 2 bucks.
By the way, for anyone that has had a problem with this price increase, I have to ask you; When was the last time you had a price increase in satellite radio rates?................... Yea thats what I thought if you had SIRI never, and if it was XMSR it was a long time ago. Now what other service can you say that about not having a increase for the last 5 and 6 years?................... once again thats what I thought also, NONE.
Love it!!!!
If you understood Chapter 11 you wouldn't post such an uninformed comment. Chapter 11 if entered into for protection, is but one option for the Company to manage its debt and come out stronger on the other side from a financial point of view, but with a much damaged reputation. Most here are speculating that the company will not enter Chapter 11, that's the investment. A speculation of a better outcome. So stop being such a Cramer wanna be....... Lottery Ticket, how original. LOL
You'll always be the undisputed shred king...
I woke up today thinking how stupid that MSFT news was this week. Calling them a tech bellwether is like saying satellite radio is dead has a clue. What? They're a dividend stock (.48) and that's it. Anyone, please look at their 10yr chart. Fast Money put it up yesterday since 1998 (when they released Windows 98). That was MSFTs "pop" and since then have been a horrible stock to own (unless you're into strictly dividends, or like stocks that go nowhere). Look at their products since W98. W2000, WME, WNT, VISTA...ALL BUSTS!!! WXP was their only hit in the last 10 years. That's a bellwether company? And MSM have the nerve last week to say "oooo, if MSFT isn't doing well (and laying off 5000 jobs), then the whole tech industry must be bad!" I say again, WHAT? MSFT sucks as company, who have ridden the coat tails of Gates, who happened to make a killing from the word go as a smart snot-nosed college dropout and cornered the PC market. But that's more luck than anything and Gates has even admitted it. No, they should lay off jobs cause they can't produce any quality products. And no one should ever call them a tech bellwether and one who is some kind of proxy for all tech. See, that just goes with the other shinannegans going on in the market. The MSM plays that up when they know it will keep the market down and keep people confused so they have a story.
This is a time in the market when all investors and traders should be wary. This is what they do. Right now, they know all eyes of We the Peons are on the market, just waiting for it to go back up so they can make their money back. BUT. The powers don't want too many sheep making their money back. So you watch. Watch how this market is just going to QUIETLY go higher very soon. Similar to end of Dec/early Jan. Suddenly it was Dow 9000 and nobody knew how it happened. But, if this is now counted as yet another retest (what is that about 5 or 6 now?) of the lows, very soon the train will be leaving the station for a while and not coming back (for a while). And many people are going to miss all the action because before they realize they should have gotten in, all the gains will be locked up. Then all the sheep who dumped their 401Ks will be left with the intended result: nothing, and no chance to get back in at the right levels. It's actually happening right now. There ARE managers starting to buy. Money is QUIETLY starting to flow back in...that's what's keeping the market from tanking. They're just not getting any headlines. Why should MSM give buyers any airtime when they've got more controversy and crap, backward looking nonfarm payrolls and housing starts to milk yet? Look at the 2yr swaps chart in relation to the S&P. It screams the market should be going higher. Like I said, people are starting to buy already but by the time MSM is ready to make that the story, all the buying will be next to done. Just an observation...
Thanks for that. I wasn't going to leave that lottery ticket concept unanswered. Further, I'm sick of people who liken the stock market to a casino..."except that people have more fun losing their money at a casino". Yes, they are both gambling with personal wealth but here's how that comparison fails:
If I go into a casino and put $5,000 on red and the ball falls onto black.. I just lost $5,000. Period, end of story. I DO NOT get the opportunity to wait a few days by the roulette wheel hoping the casino will be nice guys and give me my money back. AKA, I have ZERO recourse. Money = GONE. Now, if I buy $5,000 worth of stock and my stock tanks, I've lost some or most of my $5K....maybe. Because I am NOT in a casino, I can elect to wait until my stock recovers and low and behold, I have my money back (and maybe even a profit on top of it). That's the difference. One is MONEY GONE no questions (unless you want a beating on the sidewalk from casino security lol). The other is all money NEVER gone (because even if your stock goes into BK, you're still guaranteed x amount on your dollar), but also time to gain same money back. Hope this helps the shortsighted out there. Thank you.
And a good example is 'ol jpau's post up there. Obviously this guy has no clue about what came out of the meeting, and is conjecturing out his behind. Because jpau and all, to say SIRI would be headed for a Chapter "before the end of the year" you really "KNOW NOTHING!" (to borrow 'ol Cramers tired yelp). Because, if you did your homework (another Cramerism), you would know that if they successfully get past March 1 with a plan in hand to deal with '09 debt, then it will be off the table, dealt with, my friend. It wouldn't be revisted at "the end of the year". And you would also know that they have (as of right now) no debt due in 2010. So see, the next time any kind of Chapter talk could arise is towards the end of 2010, looking toward 2011's debt/whatever '09 that may be pushed back. So whatever dude. That's just a good example of a guy making an uninformed comment. Cramer is informed and he gets plenty wrong. So the moral to this post is trust no one but yourself and your own due-diligence when making investment decisions. And quit blaming us. Thank you.
i was diggin' your microsoft rant man. yea what a freakin' dud that stock has been . even when it reported a real nice quarter in a stronger market the stock still did absolutely nothing. maybe instead of buying yahoo with all that cash they have, they should just fire steve balmer and hire john thain, i heard he's real good at using a companies extra cash.
Yeah, Thain. what a joker. A million bucks to redo his orafice and paying his driver 200K! Sad. As you say, the truth is MSFT has ben given a free pass...up 'til now. Hence their now $17 SP. Bet on this...if they didn't have all that COH, they'd be exactly where YHOO is. $8-12...and that's it. Horrible performance record/products but because they still have a stranglehold on their market through software bundles, they at least bring in OK numbers. All based on de facto, not actual innovation or driving their market forward. This Q's numbers were no surprise except that the company blamed them on the downturn--which is lame. Fact is, VISTA sales were going bad from the get go, they just didn't show up in earnest 'til this Q.
sl62 - I have no clue? If they get past Mar 1 with a plan all will be rosy? Wishful thinking does not make for good investing. IIRC they have $400 and $300 million of XM notes due later this year, no? Getting anyone to refinance that debt in the current environment is extremely unlikely. And that doesn't even address the 100+ million still due in Feb. Are you so sure all those people will trade their bonds for 12 cent stock? Oh, my bad, it's now 10.8 cent stock. Just because we disagree doesn't make me clueless, I suggest you spend more time refuting my arguments, and less just trying to attack me the person.
I haven't mentioned Cramer at all, what's that all about?
My comments do not attack you personally, they refute your comment that you yourself made. But how can you not agree your comment leads one to assume clueless? Again, I don't know you but I know your comment only. You said:
>>this company is, IMO, on a collision course with Chapter 11 before the end of the year. All these people who somehow delude themselves into thinking that SIRI will somehow manage to trade the entirety of the hundreds of millions of dollars of debt that is due this year for penny stock $6 or $7 million at a time should just go buy a lottery ticket instead.<<
Do you really think a lottery ticket is a safer (and more lucrative) bet than SIRI getting through this debt hurdle? Now come on. Have you ever tried to win the lottery? Good luck my friend. Does getting struck by lightning mean anything to you? Your chances of that happening are actually better than winning the Lotto.
Further..for right now, "all those people" are known as Goldman Sachs. To which the remainder of the 2 1/2 Notes pricincipal is owed by Feb 15 (and I believe the Dec 33.2M Notes). And thus far, yes, they have taken SIRI up on the swap at the price you mentioned. So what's your point? What they do from here is yet to be revealed. They have the remaining 2 1/2% GS Notes due Feb 15. Most likely this will be handled with upcoming share swaps (and potentially a little COH). And you're proven wrong about who would take these shares at this SP. GS would because they know SIRI is not going to BK. Had they feared that at all, they would not have begun accepting shares as they have. Further, they are also currently a holder of significant other common of SIRI dating back to who knows when. Don't forget, Mel and GS are old financial partners and it's no surprise GS would be a holder of SIRI common.
The May debt, due May 9th, is all bank facility and thus has the great potential of being extended. If only a year but ideally to Dec. 2010 as no debt is due that year. That amount is 250M + 100M = 350M (all XM). It's unclear as to what bank but from the July 30 Prospectus (have you seen it my man?). All it says is "a group of banks." But JPM's Prime Rate is mentioned so I have to believe JPM is the primary source. And which makes sense since in the meeting PPT (have you seen it?), JPM is mentioned as one of the partners working on the '09 debt (along with Evercore). So it is entirely possible, as a bank facility, this can and will be extended and dealt with another day in the future--esp. if JPM is indeed the major lender of the "group". Then is the 400M 1 3/4% changed to 10% Notes, and the 33.2M 10% Notes due Dec 1 and the 1.7M 8 3/4 Notes due in Sept. These most likely will be dealt with in shares and some COH from Q's 1, 2 & 3. However, given that Dec 1 is still 10 months away, it leaves open possibilities for a new bank facility to handle that. As the financial picture in general stablized in the next few months, who know what opportunities can lie ahead to address this Dec due date. What if they can get a commitment from a JPM or other, who would agree to refi that debt if SIRI shows certain positive metrics in the next 3 Qs?
My last comment is the buyout itself. So far SIRI has demonstrated continued growth in Q3 and, by their own guidance in late Dec, I expect the same in Q4. You have to ask yourself. Yes, some ugly financing was used at the time of the buyout--and that has hurt shareholders. Although the financial meltdown from Sept on, has hurt most shareholders of most companies. But do you really think Mel would have done the deal if he planned on going straight into BK court in '09? Somehow I don't think so.
So you see? It's not as bad as you paint. You sound to me like a typical hater who can't see past his nose...and supplies no facts behind your claims. Further, if you're in the group who thinks locking yourself in a closet with your head between his knees because things have goten a little rough, then so be it. There are others who will stay out here and fight--like SIRI. Drawing forgone conclusions of their demise at this stage is a mistake IMHO. Anyway, I could be wrong about you but that's my first impression of you through your words. You certainly have the opportunity to refute my opinion through hard facts--I'll leave that up to you. And as said, I am refuting your argument not your existence. It is your argument I call clueless but you are the one who made it. Btw...do you know why I mentioned March 1? Or do you think I just grabbed that date out of thin air?
Btw...don't know what you mean about Cramer...
I never said anything about Chapter 11 being an emotional decision, although I doubt that anyone who has had to file for this type of protection from the courts to mitigate debt would say that it wasn't emotional as well as a necessity to continue business operations. Of course its a business decision, that is what I said. It is but one of their options.
My response to you was more due to the fact that you would not lock in longer term pricing because of their collision course with Chapter 11. I was pointing out that if you were more informed you would not that this type of Court Protection, a business decision, was made to continue operations while the company and the courts, restructure the debt. With Sirius Xm's Revenue of over $2.7B in 2009, and a projected $350M in synergies from the merger, and this most recent increase in user fees, debt is only one side of this complex equation.
As has already been pointed out to you by 163888, the $350M due in May 09, is a bank facility that only needs to be extended by their already existing Banking partners. Why would the Bank want to risk BK when Sirius Xm has been such a great, on time payer of debt and they can probably get a better rate for the extension and a chunk of stock at the same time?
The February debt will be taken care of with more stock, COH, or combination of both. That leaves the $400M due in Dec 09, a little less than a year away. By then again, a combination of Stock, COH, and even some converts renegotiated and issued will take care of this. Remember these Dec 09 Converts / Notes were XM debt that was at 1.75% and already the holders agreed to carry them and do away with the Change of Control condition on these notes for a modified increase to 10%. Investors in Sirius Xm debt are Institutions already familiar with the company, its operations, management, and future potential.
These debt issues due, as has been said many times by everyone, and especially 163888, is NOT NEW DEBT. Sirius Xm, together or separately, have never defaulted on their debt. Why? Because their business is a revenue growing machine that once past the debt issues of 2009, will be a Media Giant to be reckoned with. So go ahead and lock in your rates, save some money, and enjoy the show......
By the way, the only thing that will make me feel better at this time is if the company succeeds and is allowed to become the media provider that we all can enjoy.... taking its shareholders along for the ride.... Your being right about your shout of Bankruptcy and epiphany of the course the company is heading in, means very little to me..... enjoy and have a good one... Next time I hope to hear some original thought about what this company's chances really are based on ....Nothing but the Facts... Sir / Mam.
I'm not a hater, I've been a subscriber for almost 3 years. I just wouldn't consider it prudent at all to buy the common shares now. No, I don't think Mel planned to go to BK court in 2009 when he did the deal, but when he tried to do the deal, the credit markets hadn't dried up, had they? I'm not hiding at all, I'm just investing in much better stocks. Please understand, I'm not saying better companies, just better stocks. I truly think BK would give SIRI the fresh start it now needs, IMO.
As for me supplying hard facts, the only thing you offer is that Mel will magically make the creditors agree to everything he needs by early March and then SIRI investors will live happily ever after. I'm sorry, but the odds are against SIRI getting the refi they need this year, not with them. As much as you want to ridicule my pessimism, I at least see 170 million reasons for it coming up soon, and another 400 million reasons coming due December? this year (XM 1.75% notes). I cannot understand the optimism in these threads, nor the bashing of those of us who understand the obvious.
What really makes me laugh is the articles here. Like when SIRI trades $6 million with some bondholders for stock, leaving SIRI with what, $178 million to go by end of February, and we get an article saying that they don't seem headed for restructure. Sorry, but writing an article that the goal is in site because 3 to 4 percent of the journey is complete is ridiculous.
cos1000: If they make it to Jan 2010, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.
Judging from our posts, we have the debt pretty well surrounded.. Now if the company could give us some insight on the details of the plan going forward......... We could focus on the business of doing business with company......
I hope we all make our money back, but the above is strictly fantasy. Sat rad is a niche product, with only one viable star (Stern) and a lot of sports programming that, hopefully, remains on the channels. Among young people say under 22, it's virtually not even an afterthought. Go to any college campus in the country and try to find it in the dorms. If it didn't come standard in their vehicles, they don't have it.
You can get it at Best Buy, but try to find it at Costco, Target, or Walmart. Good Luck!
Too bad they bet the farm on the auto revenue. I'll bet Steve Jobs would have known how to make this work.
I'm not Jim Cramer, I will say this for the umteenth time. Internet has to many problems not the least of which is royalties. There is a reason Slacker cant make any money, Pandora is on the verge of bankruptcy ("jpau" Now there is a company we can talk about going bankrupt by the end of 2009.), and the internet radio companies were just saying a year and a half back, that it is already almost to hard for them to stay in business and if the royalty rates go up anymore then they wont be able to stay in business. There is a reason SIRI and XMSR were not in the internet as much as many think they should be. Did you ever notice that most of the content is not music. There is a reason that that free gravy train is pulling out of the internet station.
Nice to know I am not the only person that has interpreted your articles incorrectly Tyler. The fact is your bias opinion has contributed to many loosing much money. I am simply amazed that you have not dropped from the face of the earth with SIRI SP at .11 cents, based on the fact that you have written positive articles on SIRI the entire time as it has plummeted from 6 dollars to .11 cents. This makes you look like either an idiot or you are paid by SIRI to pump there stock. Blogs are the stock pumping tool of today. It used to be mailings, and before that faxes, and before that phone calls. It is easy to be long on a .11 cent stock today but many of us remember the ride down from 6 dollars or more as you Tyler and your cronies chanted cheers that SIRI was going to the moon. I think your articles just serve as a place for the SIRI casualties to post futile hopes of a recovery or some idea of how to get their money back that was stolen by Mel and CO with the aid of cheerleaders like you. You will be remembered by many as one who could not see the forest through the tree's. New investors beware of the SIRI Black Hole. Many have fallen victim. You remind me of a client that has owed me 200k for over three months. Every week he tells me some story about the money coming, will have it soon, the check is in the mail. I just laugh at him because he sounds just like you Tyler. False hopes. Besides SIRI SP could go to the moon right now, but the real longs are already out and have been burned. There is no redemption. The only ones buying SIRI are gamblers that are hoping for 50% or 25% gain in a quick pop and get out quick. Amazing CNBC has Mel that sack of sh on there commercial.
My point exactly. UTTPA
On Jan 25 01:00 AM I'm not Jim Cramer wrote:
> Cos: "Because their business is a revenue growing machine that once
> past the debt issues of 2009, will be a Media Giant to be reckoned
> with."
>
> I hope we all make our money back, but the above is strictly fantasy.
> Sat rad is a niche product, with only one viable star (Stern) and
> a lot of sports programming that, hopefully, remains on the channels.
> Among young people say under 22, it's virtually not even an afterthought.
> Go to any college campus in the country and try to find it in the
> dorms. If it didn't come standard in their vehicles, they don't have
> it.
>
> You can get it at Best Buy, but try to find it at Costco, Target,
> or Walmart. Good Luck!
>
> Too bad they bet the farm on the auto revenue. I'll bet Steve Jobs
> would have known how to make this work.
Their is no fantasy in my statement. I qualified them becoming a Media Giant to be reckoned with by saying they needed to first get past the 2009 Debt Issues. How is that not a reality. Here are some facts that are working in Sirius XM's favor once past the 2009 Debt Issues.
1. Sirius XM has more Spectrum under FCC license than any other entity currently in business.
2. They are paying their fair share under contractual agreements with the music, publishing, and recording industry. They are the only broadcaster who is doing this. It is in their business model and now revenue / cost structure with this pricing change.
3. The revenue sharing agreements (royalties) under #2 are removing barriers from expanding their content to other medians / platforms at lower costs by volume. They can and will include: Internet feeds world wide, cell phone streams, WiFi portable devices. They will be where you have to go to get legitimate paid for content.
4. Because of their ability to deliver content over a wide National and Potentially Worldwide geography, branding of new artists, concert series events supporting the branding, and all the marketing products that go with it are a possibility for revenue sharing and exclusive content sponsorship in the future. If your a new artist what better way to get your music out their, quickly.
5. The new Audiovox distribution agreement is setting the foundation for releasing new products through a variety of retail channels. Sirius Xm is not in the hardware business so why would they develop expanded retail chain agreements. Audiovox will do this along with others down the road depending on the partnerships developed (cell phone, Xbox, Sony, Apple, etc).
All of the above will and can happen whether they enter BK protection under Chapter 11 or not. Like you and others, we are all frustrated with the lack of marketing being done at this time. As everyone has pointed out the Debt Issues are so large at this time that it is almost impossible to see around them to the future. My point, is this is still a maturing business, that needs to develop standardized product lines before marketing the hell out of them. This company is still 2-3 years away from Broadcasting one signal through one satellite system, which will bring down the Capital, Maintenance, and Broadcasting costs significantly. Until then developing their Internet Presence in a way that sustains itself and adds to being FCF positive is a good move.
Neal Barkett
I don't disagree with your point, as we have discussed before. Timing is going to be everything. They are still working on becoming one company with synchronized programming. The thing about that age group, is there is always an ability to tap into it. It tends to be a tighter demography, with the Cool Factor being a bigger part of the draw. If the products and content aren't ready, and I believe that they aren't, you could do more harm than good.
First, cos1000, as usual you are right, and is my point that the quicker SIRI gets their plans announced the better because I also look forward to when we can stop wasting time talking about their viability with disbelievers. And to all of you, you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Some of us here continue to see the glass half full to your totally empty. For those who talk about SIRI not do this or marketing to that, what, everything has to happen in 4 months? Obviously the FCC hold-up created massive delays marketing initiatives. Waiting month to month (as we are now btw) for the FCC decsion caused probelems because why shoud SIRI have marketed as half the company they were waiting to become? Esp, since their new half was about to be their biggest and only competitor. Futile. They had to wait to be SiriusXm to maximize product capabilities per marketing dollar. In addition, they knew every day the FCC held it up, it was becoming more and more expensive a deal so marketing dollars began to be reallocated elsewhere. As far as target demo, IMHO, SatRad is not for 18-22yo's and never will be. Why? They have no cash!
Now this other stuff. Wow. Credit markets freezing up? The credit markets began freezing long before Sept. my friend. Do some research. Why do you think by July, the company was forced to use IB's for funding? Hmmm. Credit markets starting freezing in the spring. So my comment still stands. Mel, with already knowing the credit markets were locking, still did the deal not because he figured he'd head right into BK court about 4 -5 months later. And you neglected to read my whole post. If it turns out as I believe that Feb 15 is taken care of, May 9 bank facilities are extended, it leaves all year for new opportunites to deal with Dec.1 Notes as economy gets waaay better than it is right at this moment. I see no creativity going on here. All I read is "they can't pay so go to court." What if they paid half of Dec in shares (and less shares due to higher SP in June or July) and did a new bank facility for 200M? Very realistic, showing growth in Q's 4,1,2. That is entirely possible my friend. That's really even the point. SIRI's job 1 right now is put together a string of great Q's. That is what they control. If they do that, the rest will follow.
Speaking of control. Up the Pipe, you hurt your argument more than help it. Exactly. Now you blame Tyler for the SP being .11? Why because he writes articles about what happens? Do you realy think blog posts are what drives this or any other stock? And so what if Tyler might spin more of what he reports on positive. What?, everyone should just do what TMF, WallSt/247, Douggie M, Weinkes, Slick Rick, et al have been doing now for about a year and a half? Predicting SIRI's demise, if not total liquidation? I'm glad Tyler sees the positive side. You blame him for your troubles. And how is it that Tyler suddenly creates the news? Makes it up? He REPORTS IT. And since when should people be making investment decisions soley based on the reporting of Tyler Savery? Or of course otherblog posts for that matter... Your entitled to your opinion...I don't agree with it.
Look. Believers and non believers will be at odds until about 30 days from now. Then we shall see. But in the meantime, I still don't get it. What? Non believers post here to defend the BK argument? Seems like a waste of time to me. Or...that you are playing Underdog (Here I come to save the day!) protecting unsuspecting Polly Purebread posters from reading too many positive opinions? Hmmm. Odd at best. Yet you say you are either still invested or a satisfied consumer of the product? Further if this stock is such a poor "buy", why even bother writing anything about it? You say there are so many other better stocks out there to buy. Shouldn't you be blogging on those boards instead? Weird to me...
Lastly, this is quite a CYA disclaimer:
>>cos1000: If they make it to Jan 2010, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong<<
So, I see, you'll be a hater unless things go better. That's really taking a stance! Sorry to say, but not much fortitude there...
SIRI has a lot of growth yet to occur. And potential to the max with a huge spectrum, new marketing opps, et al. It's like when you move into a new house. Is it perfect as is for you? As if you've already been living in it for several years? Way more times that yes, no. You have to paint, knock down this or that fargin wall, buy new furniture to match the new decor...all of it. Including unpacking all your junk. Anyone knows it takes abut 1 year (or even longer) before you are actually "moved in" to "your" new digs. But I guess SIRI doesn't get that time....as anyone else does. No, they have to do it all in 6 months or they're criticized and impugned. Oh well.
Appreciate your opinion. My take on that demog. is exactly as you say though, already saturated with ipods, et al. Too much competition with video games, guitar hero, and the thrill of collecting your own music (now in mp3s, 4s, and I guess still CD's although even those are going extinct). It's been a while since I was 18 - 22 but not that long! lol...of course the radio in those days was no big deal, but something. But, even for what it was, radio still took second or even third place to me collecting my favorite albums. That's where my money went. And I would even argue that I got more exposure to new music from different buddys' record collections (and that of their brothers) than the radio. I know it's different today, but I suspect some things will never change. IMHO, you just don't know how to put value on something like SIRI at that age. It's ALL about your ipod/computer and what mp3's you have on it that make you cool. The fun is in the collecting, not necessarily what you might derive from a radio stream. So I think for that age group, mom and dad's money will still be going towards buying the next ipod with bigger GB's. I could be wrong but that's my take...
I tend to agree with your opinions regarding that younger demographic. The Cool Factor is an elusive and fluid image to maintain. Slip once and your gone forever. Succeed and your Apple and Steve Jobs. I do find that Neal's point in terms of directing retail dollars, as to what and where they are spent, is definitely in the hands of the young, and plays to the need for their parents to please. That's why I feel that Sat Rad can best do this by redressing their image as a premium content provider of the latest, front line talent out their. Let the gadget makers decide on the most efficient and coolest ways to deliver it.
cos: you're right about the sharing across the different platforms, but this patient does not have 2 or 3 years. As shareholders who don't want to die this year, we need lifesaving medical attention or that 2 - 3 year become superfluous.
Cell phone provdiers did not think this way, which is why they drove their business by providing subsidized hardware to incur profit on the usage. It's too late to try now, because there is no way for sirisu to borrow money. You have to wonder though how differentl the story might have ended had Sirius 3 or 4 years ago decided to substantially subsidize the cost of portable receivers, to recoup on the long term comittment.
Our debate seems to be more about the company's future viability than the facts of how the business is run. Debt restructuring without BK will take care of shareholders now, and in the future. The facts on the ground regarding their restructuring of the 2009 debt will be out in less than 30 business days, 3/1/09, so there really is no need to continue that debate. We will all know soon enough......
I feel that this company is too often compared to Cell Phone companies. As far as manufacturing subsidies, Sirius XM has paid for chip set subsidies since its origin. Cell phone companies have been around for more than two decades bringing portability to communications. They have overcome many obstacles to prohibit calls from being dropped, finally obtaining the coverage that make them a reliable platform option for telecommunications service. The only real similarity between the two companies is that they are a subscriber based service for revenue and both subsidize manufacturing of equipment. The extensive and successful research and development of the Telecom Industry, makes them a Platform for Media Companies such as Sirius XM to be available on. Wifi and the Internet, Satellite TV and Cable TV, and Sirus XM's own satellites are but other Platforms for Sirius XM to be available on. Also Sirius XM is not driven exclusively by commercial free Music, although this is its lead to overwhelm terrestrial radio, but it is also driven by News, Talk, Sports, some Video, Weather, Traffic, Navigation, etc. in Real Time. The question here is its short term viability, not its longer term potential. IMHO
Their business model has always paid for chipset subsidies to manufacturers and OEM's. While apart XM and Sirius kept their technology proprietary, due to their competition, and therefore had a more involved relationship with manufacturers. from concept to roll out on the retail shelf the product and did not do a very good job on the retail side. Since the merger and the FCC requirement for open access to their technology, they have moved away from proprietary control and have selected Audiovox to distribute manufactured products. My statement of 2-3 years is primarily due to their honoring legacy agreements in providing uninterrupted service to existing customers at the time of the merger. That is why they have to maintain both satellite systems. At some point it will become cost efficient for them to offer legacy subscribers a new radio to transfer over to the one system broadcasting technology.
Your off base. I don't give away my internet feed to others, but know for a fact that others do. And looking in a positive way I would expect the ones that do get the internet feed for free will pay, adding overall subs. I am not crying but sure am pissed off at the stock....and the FCC. I have 4 subs and will keep them as long as Sirius doesn't go BK.
On Jan 23 06:50 PM still sirius wrote:
> Disappointed American
>
> Are you aware that your FREE internet feed was costing the company
> money??? They had to pay royalty fees at a higher rate than Sat/Rad.
> Why not inhance your FRIENDS listening experience by making him pay
> you for the $3 internet feed (outstanding 128kb feed) or get his
> own damn sub. Why is the company losing money....idiots like you
> are giving away the companies services...and then whining and crying
> about it. Cancel and go away. Customer Service has more things to
> worry about than to listen to crybabies all day long.
Why do you stay here bashing the stock and the company so much? If you want to seriously do some good.....go bash the folks driving the price of OIL higher .....while supply continues to rise....and demand continues to fall......even with OPEC implementing their cuts. You wantr to talk about crooks and manipulators...there are the crooks and manipulators to talk about. The only comment of yours I agree with is for those who can avg down more to continue to do so!
If you rode the stock down from over 1.00 those shares will lose money.
However buying at .11 is a hope to recoup money from those higher priced shares with lower priced ones. You buy 10x as many new shares as old and hope price climbs to .25 or above. You can still end up losing even more money if that does not happen. (I am hoping to see at least .20 to recover money from shares bought above that)
When you go to sell your shares you will sell the ones bought first. This will result in a loss. Not until you sell shares bought below sell price will sale produce profit. The over all result will be exactly as if you sold all your shares and then later bought back in at .11
You could in fact have recovered your money sooner by selling all your SIRIUS shares and bought stock in another company. The money is SIRI currently is in trading not investing. You sell when price is .02 or more over where you bought in wait for it to go back down and repeat.
I am still holding my higher priced shares because I am going to sell them when SP climbs to where my .11 shares would realize a profit. Then I wait and buy more when price receeds again. ( I am no longer an investor)
On Jan 26 03:04 PM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, In reality your 1000 shares at 3.00 will lose money and your
> new investment of 1,000 will lose money if SP falls below .11 and
> stays there but will earn money if it goes up. If it gets to .40
> your even for your 4000 investment. But its the 9000 at .11 that
> matter. The first 1000 shares you sell at .40 will record a .60 loss
> per share.
It's funny, your example is almost exactly what I have done in reality. I started with about 1100 shares at $2.70, and now I have averaged down to about .39 cents a share. So I am a true-life representation of your analogy.
The money I invested at the higher price is pretty much a write-off. I am waiting for profits at the lower level to balance out the losses at the higher level, the break-even point being 0.39 cents. Some people say it's never a good idea to average down, but in my opinion it's a case by case analysis. The only question is, given SIRI's current situation, is 0.11 cents a good buy. If the answer is yes, then I'll average down, irregardless of past history. The analysis is no different than if I'm considering buying a completely separate stock.
Those who say its never a good idea to average down are usually traders, not investors. I imagine that you bought with the idea of selling at some point...but were not in any hurry to do so, because you had faith in the company and believed you bought something that was valuable and would appreciate over time. I know that was my reason for buying the first time. I will tell you that I sold the first time at an 80% return on my original investment in Sirius. I too am now averaged down to about .29 cents a share. I intend to purchase several thousand more shares to lower my cost even more, and ultimately sell about half of it at a profit, keeping the other half as a long term purchase. I believe in this company, I believe in the business, I think they need to re adjust in a couple of areas, mostly on the marketing side, and they need to do some strategic partnering. I would love to see them partner with Microsoft and be able to stream SATRAD through an XBOX. Don't know if that will happen, but I am looking to the future on this one as well as some instant gratification. The possibilities are many...I just hope it is as apparent to the company as it is to many of us on here.
I just hope we are not waiting for bad news!
BTW....I don't think we are waiting on bad news. No one really knew how bad things were going to get, and SIRI has been beaten to a pulp and then some. I don't think it would be as low as it is right now if the overall market hadn't taken such a beating, though it would still be well below where it should be or needs to be to turn around! I don't like this cat and mouse game either....but I like the company and the service, and I am purely speculating, but i believe that those who stick around will eventually be very happy they did.
3510
390
3900
I have bought shares at many prices on the way down because I hope the lower priced shares will make up what the higher ones lost. I have an average price but in reality I have 18 different positions on the same stock.
Do not "average" unless you think each new buy is something you would do if you did not make the earlier buys (pretend you are not trying to recover from a loss but rather are looking for a profit from a new position.
You buy stocks because you think their value will increase not because you have lost money while it declined. The most correct course is to sell stocks that are in a long term decline and buy another stock that is going to increase. It is OK to sell a stock in July and rebuy in December.
I am not picking on anyone I have those 18 different buys to show I was in the "price avg" mode. I would have been wiser to simply sell when SP continued decline at start and put money into other stocks. Since I do think SIRI will increase from .11 I could have bought several times the number I currently hold by simply waiting for these .105's (or wherever it ends up before finally going up for real) By doing all this avg I have denied myself chances with other stocks. My money is tied to a stock that has only declined since I bought it. It has been wishful thinking on my part to think upward movement would happen prior to all the issues being settled.
(.39 would produce a niffty profit for majority of my positions in SIRI)
thats 3000 buy producing 2610 loss
990 buy producing 2520 profit
3510
390
3900
Your still light 90 plus price of trades
On Jan 26 07:58 PM Come on Guys Lets get Sirius! wrote:
> Hey guys Could SIRI go us as fast as it fell on good news and good
> Quarter reports?
On Jan 26 08:47 PM Come on Guys Lets get Sirius! wrote:
> Yomann, Oh yea?? U think it could go up easier than down?
Its not about percentages to regain, its market cap....When investors feel their market cap is worth more, the stock will go up...Its irrelevant to current and future and past prices....No one knows how many shares will be issed on any given date...etc...If they pay off their 09 debt, and dont add any more, then there market cap will improve dramatically...It could be 300 PERCENT HOLY COW WOW O MY 300 PERCENT O GEEZ!!!
Silly....Ask Freddie Mac investors that if held from bottom to 1.90 again if there percentages were warrented...
It can go up a million percent if there market cap says so...who cares...Percentages are only important if you own a double short ETF...etc....Not for stocks that track market cap value...
I think in September, thru December we should all be a SiriXM stock Member.
Dont dwell now, cuz the price will Swell!
Now will this suit us quite Well?
On Jan 26 09:52 PM Come on Guys Lets get Sirius! wrote:
> i waz talking about my last quote
Thanks for stepping in. It does seem that some here are getting way too technical in their approach to this stock, like they are managing a fund. If you need to get that technical , you probably shouldn't have bought in the first place.....or you overbought the position and are in panic mode in most cases. The market gets crazy enough without people adding to the situation.
corrupt your messages with dots . . . Place a space between each dot and your entire message will be accepted!
otherwise you get
..................you never know what you'll get
instead of
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . you never know what you'll get
On Jan 27 11:29 AM killerkaul wrote:
> yomann................ just saw your comment on kidding. Sorry I
> flew off the handle. I get so tired I could puke.......... on PC.
agree with you 1000%! It worked for both internet service and cell phones, neither of which took off until implementation of simplified pricing models.
I think you are definitely on to something there. It won't fix the other issues but it will go a long way toward improving company revenue because i think it would in fact bring more folks into SATRAD. I know since I first tried it, it's very difficult to listen to terrestrial radio, I am a life sub now and damn glad I made that decision.
London071, your comment, just makes no sense. so let me get this straight you were able to afford 3 extra radios at a cost of almost 21 dollars a month, so because of 6 extra dollars a month you can no longer afford or accept the extra cost, so as said before that just makes no sense. I have to ask, why did you not just get one radio that you could switch from place to place in the first place. Your comment might make more sense if you would have said you are canceling one to make up for the cost of the increase.
I also guess you dont have cable or satellite TV anymore ether. I say that because what extra did you get from them when they increased their prices several times in the last 6 years while SIRI kept their prices the same.
Guys, you have to throw the current SP right out the window. Due to circumstances even your 90 y/o grandmother knows about, SIRI SP is right now grossly undervalued. It is currently priced as being on the doorstep of BK (which if that does not happen, there must be a correction). So my point is...there is little math you can use at this point to determine what the "actual" price of this stock should be. First you will never be able to pin down an accurate P/E multiple here. Why? The company is still too spec. So it could trade with any number of sky high multiples for extended periods of time with no problem at all. Of course that keeps the SP unstable but there is no way around it. People will pile in AND pile out just as fast because SIRI is a vehicle stock not a destination stock. So count on plenty of volitility all the way through 2014 (or until their balance sheet gets evened out). And I think many of us know the best way for them to do that is through new revenue streams via their huge spectrum or new services. Existing avenues alone will no do it. But I digress. My point here is you have to forget about percentage moves, et al. Percentages are out the window. Think about how .0035 is 3 1/2 percent. So meaning that given awaited positive upcoming news, this stock is first going to have to "correct". And corrections come in all shapes and sizes. At very least, they can be wild and unpredictable (i.e. the 900+ point days we saw on the DOw last year). IMO, a first conservative correction would be back into the .30 range. From there, it will go to where I believe it should be right now .50 - .70 (without market meltdown). Due to over buying, it could just bypass the first correction altogether, hard to say. But from there in time (and not long), it will touch 1.00 again. Don't foget, the SP was revalued at 1.50 post buyout (before the stock started getting its arse kicked)...same exact debt load as now. Was that a fair revalue? That was the agreed to number all things considered so it must have been somewhat correct. Now there is some further dilution proper, but where does that leave the corrected SP (this time with even less debt than before as at least 300M 2 1/2 Feb Notes will be gone)? Still over a dollar is my guess. With euphoric conditions, who knows how far over as a spike. That's up to the free market to decide. But whatever the move, it's a correction not a standard move under regular circumstances. So I would just forget about percentages at this point. Wait untill the stock corrects first. Trying to use percentages to determine where the stock can or cannot go from here is futile. IMHO...
WHERE DO I START...OMG I needed that..
Cell phones took off when they stopped being 50 pounds, only got a signal in certain area, and didnt cost an arm and a leg...
Combine that with non stop advertising, huge money investments into the infrastructure...
But your right..>When I could read my bill better I decided to get one...LOL
LOL
Adding those personal comments was for humor....I made some of them up... :)
thanks for your comment. I tend to agree. who really knows the value of this company at this point. so many factors. suffice it to say that someday this stock will trade like a utility or a comcast...stable, modest growth. today though, it's a spec stock all the way. cramer wasn't far off when he called it a lottery ticket, as much as that upset all us longs. i do see a nice pop in the short term. my only concern is that we get dragged through the rest of this year dealing with remaining 09 debt. if mel only comes with solution for feb debt and no long term game plan, i could see us hanging around at this level for quite some time. sure hope he has plan for entire 09 debt, even if its just extension. i know there's no place for "hope" in investing, but at this point, what else do we have. mgt not giving us any real data to bite into so hope reigns. waiting on you mel....
Yes, this stock has been negatively affected (pummeled) by BK chatter and disbelief. And with the company not ever saying anything to refute whispers of the Street, there was no place to go but .11 (sadly). The problem is going down is super easy but getting back up is super hard (without the right reasons). You are correct in that if plans are not announced to satisfy the Street, the SP will languish. Somehow I don't believe that will be the case though as there is much more at stake here than just taking care of the Feb Notes. Don't forget, the company doesn't like being .11 any more than we do. IMO, they will make the proper announcements as they said they would in the Dec 18 PPT. What we do know is there has been more than ample time to craft the plan/figure out what to do based on current conditions--and we know they have been working with other financial institutions to accomplish said goals. They said they would have 09 debt answers by March 1 and the Street is waiting for those answers. If not, what the hell were you doing all this time? Right now shareholders were thrown under the bus and run over once. Extending this malaise any farther beyond March 1 is being run over by the same bus multiple times. I don't see that as the likely scenario given the company's own rhetoric.
Maybe this will be the beginning of bringing new musical talent to Sirius XM as we talked about this weekend....
From www.orbitcast.com/arch...
<< Sirius XM Radio are launching Sirius XMU Sessions, a series of in-studio performances from ground-breaking artists.
Sirius XMU Sessions will debut on Wednesday, January 28th on Sirius XMU (Sirius channel 26 and XM channel 43) with a performance by indie rockers Blitzen Trapper.
Sirius XMU Sessions will offer up listeners stripped-down performances and in-depth interviews with a different groundbreaking Sirius XMU artist every week.
Upcoming sessions will include performances and interviews by Andrew Bird, Neko Case, Jenny Lewis, Matt & Kim, A.C. Newman and Ra Ra Riot.
Sirius XMU Sessions will air every Wednesday at 9pm ET on Sirius XMU Sirius channel 26 and XM channel 43. Encore broadcasts will air on Thursdays at 4pm ET, Fridays at 9am ET and Sundays at 12pm ET. >>
I agree with your SP analysis, correction first after debt announcement, then play the channels..... Lets hope the announcement will be good news for the patient investor..... who may becoming a patient with all the waiting around we're doing...
We're almost there....
Thanks for that news.on the music. I think we all agree that this company has much potential to exploit new avenues and potential services. All they have to do is fund it properly (other than shares) in the form of rate increases and new advertisers. If they can do this and bring their model in line, sky IS the limit (including demographics I will admit for Neal B!).
And yes, hard to believe it's been now 6 months since Aug 1 for SIRI...and nothing but bad news. That stat alone says some good news has to be close. No company can keep such a streak of negativity in tact much longer. Esp. not when other things like Q reports are so positive. Hang in there all, I say. This thing will normalize very soon and make a huge difference. Look at the "Bad Bank" news leak today after hours (supposed to be officially announced early next week) that will absorb and sequester toxic assets... All the banks got a pop out of that already tonight. We are beginning to pull out of a huge mess from Sept - Nov in the financial markets, which will help tremendously. Dudes, this was about as rough as it gets (what we just went through). The market bonafide crashed whether anyone realizes it or not (as did SIRI which we know)... and many of us have not only gone through it, but lived through it and survived. I admire all of us who stayed in the market through this and didn't run away (like many did) and hid in their closet....keep the faith...
I think we often get carried away on this board with limitless potential, but as a functioning business, or even as a business model, sat rad has NEVER been proven to work yet!
One hundred percent of the stock price is speculation, so I agree with those who say that the upward price appreciation is not limited by normal percentage constraints. Let's just not act like we're sitting on proven gold reserves, and just need to bring in some miners to get them out!!!!!
p.s. this stock was a hype stock (momentum stock) 5-7 years ago, but it's a different time now, move the f--k on
Konsta, are you kidding me this stock has alot of hype left what do you think one of the big reasons that took it down. Not to mention I heard that hype is over theory before back in 2000. Then what did I see Google and Apple hyped to levels that they should have never been ether. Apple went from 19 to 83 then split 2 for one and went to 240 all in 2 and a half years. I dont care how many Ipods and such they sell that PPS was mostly hype. unless you think Apples market cap should have gone from 10 billion to 250 billion in 2 and a half years.
They recently called offering 5 months for $19.95 which I accepted. The music quality on the merged menu has really taken a dump. I'll probably stay with it for five more months, but not afterward. I see many friends and a businesses are now tuned to Pandora.com. No comparison in quality, variety and artistry.
XM/Sirrius is bland, but Pandora rocks! It's a no brainer.
Pandora is cool, but there is not the variety of types of Radio available through SATRAD...its an entirely different thing.....like apples and oranges
Pandora is trying to fight paying its statutory requirement to pay its fair share to the RIAA. No matter how cool you think they are, they will go away without paying musicians for the use of their original content.
Slacker although it doesn't have live content, seems to have a better model, commercials and poster board advertisements for their free service, with limited skip song capability (4 per hour) and an unlimited skip song and no commercial service for around 3.99 / mo. Slacker has contracts in place for content and a pretty good portable unit, Wifi compatible. LIfe content and on the road seems to be its biggest draw back currently.
I comment as a consumer. Do i value XM/Sirius? I think broadcast quality has fallen since the merger. I don't think XM/Sirius is a good value, even at $4/month. Sorry.
Pandora is just a comparison. I can get personalized content which I would never hear on sattelite. XM/Sirius may have had its day in the sun.