HBO (TWX), is using the internet for a creative new marketing strategy. As part of their campaign to promote the third season of "Entourage," it is offering Internet users the chance to undergo a nerve-racking job interview with the cutthroat Hollywood agent Ari Gold, played by Jeremy Piven.
AmTech notes that both XM Satellite (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite (SIRI) have been poor performers. XMSR, in particular, has been hit with a succession of bad news and the stock reflects capitulation in analyst confidence. Though it feels like a bottom is near, it's not clear that the stocks won't sink further. They do believe that valuations will converge and recommend a long XMSR and short SIRI pairs trade.
AmTech also notes that SIRI now trades at nearly 50% greater enterprise value and more than double the value per sub. XMSR has a larger OEM channel, with about automakers that 60% of annual output promoting XMSR service. They say both companies report OEM users in promotional period as subscribers, but with more aggressive accounting and longer promotional periods, they believe that this is about 60% of SIRI's OEM base vs. 20% for XMSR. As these subs come up for renewal through the year, they believe this makes SIRI's churn guidance unrealistic.