Fourth Quarter Sees Decline in Cell Phone Shipments

Are cell phones no longer a growth business? At least in the fourth quarter, cell phone shipments actually declined. According to Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff, shipments from the top five cell phone manufacturers (Nokia (NOK), Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson (ERIC), and Motorola (MOT)) dropped 13 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2008. Unit shipments decelerated from 14 percent growth in the second quarter to 2 percent growth in the third quarter, and then finally went into negative territory in the fourth quarter.

Shipments for the top five started decelerating sequentially (quarter-over-quarter) in the third quarter, when they were down 2 percent, and then were down 4 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter. The deceleration is likely to continue through 2009.

Even Apple (AAPL) saw a 36 percent quarterly decline in sales of iPhones (4.4 million in the December quarter versus 6.9 million in the September quarter). And RIM’s Blackberry Storm sold only 500,000 units its first month, despite a $100 million marketing campaign.

As a result, Apple and RIM have about 3 percent market share between them, down from 4 percent in the third quarter, estimates Modoff. Still, that’s half of Motorola’s 6 percent share.

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Comments

[texasgolfer:]

Not inclined to rely on DB analyst..most DB analyst missed on their analysis and certainly on their own employer.

Jan 26 01:14 PM

[.crazylegs..:]

Dumb comparison for apple and RIM. While the largest manufacturers are flat, the movement from dumb to smart phones is helping both RIM and Apple. Look at the YOY growth for both of them. And look at RIM's sequential growth. The only reason Apple didn't grow sequentially is due to the product cycle (comparing vs prior 3G launch Q which was preceded by two months of zero iPhone sales). Just terrible analysis in this POS.

Jan 26 01:37 PM

[Oh Blah Dee...:]

RE: "... Even Apple (AAPL) saw a 36 percent quarterly decline in sales of iPhones (4.4 million in the December quarter versus 6.9 million in the September quarter). ..."

It is believed that approximately 2 million of the over 6 million iPhones that Apple shipped in the prior quarter were "channel fill." Meaning that, they were iPhone that retailers used as inventory and showroom stock.

Jan 26 02:51 PM

[sarbj:]

I think G1 will kill them all. The kind of apps people are launching on Android,no body can beat them

Jan 26 03:41 PM

[reagan:]

Yes, Apple can beat them & will beat them.

Jan 26 06:54 PM

[squawk:]

Re: "Are cell phones no longer a growth business?"

What planet do you live on, Eric?

Jan 27 12:44 PM

[KenC:]

Actually, not "believed", it's a fact. Just listen to the conference call. Or, read it here on the seekingalpha website. Apple sold 4.9M iPhones the previous quarter, and 4.65M this past quarter. Why wasn't it 4.4M? They drew down inventories 250k, as mentioned in the last conference call. Thus, the sell-thru was 250k higher. It's all mentioned in the conference call.

So, you would compared sequentially, 4.9M to 4.65M.

Jan 27 02:31 PM