The Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN)/Vector Capital deal continues to pose one of the more frustrating research and analytical projects in recent memory. While there appears to be a very mild sense within the industry and among some analysts that this transaction may be problematic from a competition standpoint, there does not appear to be a single source for decent market share data for the relevant U.S. or European markets. Furthermore, despite numerous attempts to contact competitors and industry analysts, no source seems willing, or able, to provide an assessment that we consider useful in projecting this deal's regulatory timing.
Therefore, it can only be stated yet again that the evidence available to this point clearly shows a direct overlap and exceedingly high combined market share (the specific market share remains a mystery) in the Software DRM niche, both in the United States and various European markets. Until this publication is able to obtain information from a reliable source that this proposed combination is insignificant in terms of competition, it must be assumed that the FTC/DOJ and the European Commission will conduct lengthy reviews.
It will be noted as well that this is a situation in which unusual efforts have been made to disprove the concept of possible/probable antitrust issues, but these efforts have failed to produce any contradictory evidence so far.