Sirius XM Gets Some Breathing Room from Delisting Freeze 172 comments
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The New York Stock Exchange has put out a new policy that temporarily lowers the minimum market capitalization requirement for public companies. The move will allow several broadcasters to avoid delisting. A similar move regarding minimum stock price was enacted and then extended by NASDAQ.
The move by NYSE allows companies like Citadel (CDL), Emmis (EMMS), Regent (RGCI), Saga (SGA), and others to maintain their listing status as the economic downturn remains a major factor in the markets. Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is below the $1.00 minimum price requirement to remain listed on NASDAQ, but moves by the exchanges have essentially put a freeze on any delisting.
Specific to Sirius, the NASDAQ freeze is in effect until the summer. Extensions on delisting would potentially take the company into 2010 before they would have the potential for delisting, and that is only if their price remains below $1. Shareholders have already approved the use of a reverse split, which in effect could bring the company above the delisting threshold. That reverse split authorization expires December 31, 2009.
Media companies have taken a virtual beating across the board. A contraction in advertising has lasted for several months, and while there are some signs that things are reversing, it is not yet to a point where confidence is expressed by the street.
Position - Long Sirius XM
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This article has 172 comments:
Relmor, Cos, 163888, Bueller?
Big Ben
Going to Tampa Friday....oh yeah!
What is the price increase for the internet access after March 11t?
If it is a price increase,
IMHO this is the first real positive move from Mel and Siri. If they are raising prices and cutting back service, I'm pumped! This is exactly what the FCC and anti-competitive crowd was talking about. Six months after the merger they are going to charge more for internet access.....I love it! This service is really worth to me atleast 50 a month. Regular radio is unlistenable and truly dying on the vine. If I can fork out 45 dollars twice in a month for UFC and Affliction pay per views, then 50 for Siri is nothing.
Comments?
Stern is starting on the west coast feed! Out
Long car ride to Tampa from Myrtle Beach, I would drive from Egypt to be in that crowd! Don't miss it if your close!
Big Ben
On Jan 28 09:28 AM Sirius sucks wrote:
> If Sirius does a reverse split, I bet a hundred million dollars the
> shorts will push the stock back below a dollar in less than 6 months.
Good luck on your trip down to Tampa and in the big game....
In the order you asked:
Feb 15th, 2009 $174.588M due. Mel can hide until a pre-annoucement or the 4Q and 2008 Annual Conference Call now estimated to be 2/23/2009. We probably will hear something by Feb 15th. May debt is known as the XM Revolving Credit Facility, (two lines for $250M with JPMorgan Chase, and $100M with UBS, AG), expiring on May 5, 2009. The $400M is due on Dec. 1, 2009 and also XM debt constructed as 10% Senior Exchangeable Notes, prior to the merger they wer at a rate of 1.75%.
The price increase on the internet, is really an elimination of the Free Feed, 32K bandwidth, to monthly subscribers, and the continuation of their already existing 128K bandwidth feed for 2.99 / month. Those on lifetime, or any of the annual or multi year contracts will not change. The Free Feed will continue to be available until their existing contract expires. Those on monthly plans can subscribe for longer term contracts locking in current rates and feed access.
Tyler, I thought the last rule suspension for trading under a buck by NASDAQ was put out until April 15, 2009. What does the Capitalization requirement have to do with this?? Even at .10 cents Sirius XM is above the 100M requirement. Did they extend the $1 Buck trading rule again?
On Jan 28 09:59 AM cos1000 wrote:
> Big Ben,
>
> Good luck on your trip down to Tampa and in the big game....
>
> In the order you asked:
>
> Feb 15th, 2009 $174.588M due. Mel can hide until a pre-annoucement
> or the 4Q and 2008 Annual Conference Call now estimated to be 2/23/2009.
> We probably will hear something by Feb 15th. May debt is known as
> the XM Revolving Credit Facility, (two lines for $250M with JPMorgan
> Chase, and $100M with UBS, AG), expiring on May 5, 2009. The $400M
> is due on Dec. 1, 2009 and also XM debt constructed as 10% Senior
> Exchangeable Notes, prior to the merger they wer at a rate of 1.75%.
>
>
> The price increase on the internet, is really an elimination of the
> Free Feed, 32K bandwidth, to monthly subscribers, and the continuation
> of their already existing 128K bandwidth feed for 2.99 / month.
> Those on lifetime, or any of the annual or multi year contracts will
> not change. The Free Feed will continue to be available until their
> existing contract expires. Those on monthly plans can subscribe
> for longer term contracts locking in current rates and feed access.
>
What other financing is possibly and realistically available to SIRI other than DIP financing? TARP?
On Jan 28 10:06 AM rtatp31 wrote:
> With the potential for delisting way out to 2010 we should be in
> good shape once we are able to get all the debt under control/refinanced
> plus a positve cash flow should drive the stcok up well above a buck-with
> no need for a reverse split-this is really great news. Unless of
> course they want it over five to get higher instituion intrest. Either
> way looks like bankruptcy is out of the question--really really great
> news
I'll have to write that one down.
On Jan 28 10:06 AM rtatp31 wrote:
> With the potential for delisting way out to 2010 we should be in
> good shape once we are able to get all the debt under control/refinanced
> plus a positve cash flow should drive the stcok up well above a buck-with
> no need for a reverse split-this is really great news. Unless of
> course they want it over five to get higher instituion intrest. Either
> way looks like bankruptcy is out of the question--really really great
> news
HOLD SIRI
Telstar
mydogniles, Mel has already stated that while the black Friday sales were better then they expected it was because they were not expecting a great deal. Barring that though, he did say they were well on there way to getting double digit growth for the quarter. I would expect SIRIXM to come within there 19.1 million estimate. Also while churn is important so is ARPU, SAC, and other savings that the merger created and if those numbers off sets a higher then expected churn then so will the downward pressure on the PPS. You see most analyst at this time should be expecting churn to go up with the economy being as bad as it is,(the surprise was that the churn did not change that much) but then take in the changes (for synergies that will save them more money then they lose in loss of subscribers) and a up and coming price increase (once again for more revenue then they will lose in loss of subscribers). Then thats what you call the good out weighing the bad. Also if they show a good FCF positive number then that would for the most part take out any chance of bankruptcy. For instance if they have 350 million in COH and another 200 coming in FCF then that gives them 550 million add that to the 3.5 billion in dilution and it adds up to being able to make it with out going bankrupt, reguardless of any financing. This is also why I have been saying from the beginning that this bankruptcy talk because of the Feb debt is hype not reallity. That said there always is the reason that most others that finish Med school file for bankruptcy, it is just easyer to do that and come out stronger, then try and work it all off. Now that being said Mel has alot more consequences to deal with then a med student. The least of which is his reputation, which I believe is not small to Mel.
1) Spreading potential SIRI bankruptcy rumors?
2) Constant shorting of a $0.12//share stock? How do you make much money doing that?
3) Constantly harrassing SIRI with shareholder suits?
4) Costant lobbying of the FCC to harrass SIRI?
5) The constant character assasination of SIRI management?
I am not usually a conspiricy theorist but "Terrestrial Radio" interests, who have everything to benefit and little to lose by the destruction of Sirius/XM. If someone is a SIRI owner why would you want to constantly bash the stock? It can only have a detrmental effect. If you are not a SIRI owner,, why would you spend your days surfing message boards to make negative posts? Because you have something to gain, that's why.
The strategy of negative votes against you is to drive out any positive mention of SIRI. I'm glad you got mad. BTW, Relmor: I never voted before but I always give you a "thumbs up" now!
On Jan 28 01:32 PM relmor wrote:
> Ok, I am now convinced someone is actually paid to bash Sirius on
> here, and spend time voting down all positive comments. Based on
> this information, combined with the delisting information...bounce
> it had today then beaten down again(volume drove it up, NO volume
> drove it down)..and its proximity to financing news...Im doubling
> down today...Thank whoever is working on voting no on all positive
> threads, I think you just made me a lot more money today..I needed
> just one more reaons to pull the trigger, and you gave it to me...I
> now no longer think you are just bitter, you ve spent way too much
> time to be just bitter...No ones that big a loser...
thoughts on this news?
thanks for your comments. i agree, synergies could offset weak subs or higher churn. closer to fcf the better, thats for sure. just seems like there is such little wiggle room. deep down i believe in mel, the company and i love the product. overall i think he's done a great job navigating thru what we'd all call the perfect storm for sat radio. car sales and discretionary spending getting whacked big time...credit markets totally frozen. but we're still here posting our thoughts and waiting for the tide to turn. i believe it will...
My above comments are serious...10000 shares coming in tomorrow at 10 am...Keep showing me your paid, and you keep convincing me the higher this stock is going to go
I now recommend this stock as a strong buy and will be attempting to get everyone I know to buy more shares. I always had my doubt(not wanting to make others lose money , but I am now 100 percent convinced of a huge rebound)..Hopefully I can get a million shares bought from friends by the end of next week(I have bored friends with money)...
So keep posting dumb comments, keep hitting our ratings, keep yahoo message board filled with bashers, and the more I will attack.
No risk left for them....ZERO....The balance of the 5% left CANT be better spent...Time to sell ended..Now time to hold...Theres a time for everything, just like the song says...
www.fool.com/investing...
www.fool.com/investing...
Nice juxtapostition..Sorry for the big words Im not Jim Cramer...Look it up...
My first of 100 posts between today and tomorrow..Dont worry, they will be information based...Im calling Hartleib on the phone right now to tell him to go lay an egg....) I just got my friend from Cali to buy 20000 shares on my recommendation(I told him to buy AUY when it hit $4...He likes my advice...)
On Jan 28 04:35 PM relmor wrote:
> More proof Im right....
>
> www.fool.com/investing...
>
>
> www.fool.com/investing...
>
>
> Nice juxtapostition..Sorry for the big words Im not Jim Cramer...Look
> it up...
> My first of 100 posts between today and tomorrow..Dont worry, they
> will be information based...Im calling Hartleib on the phone right
> now to tell him to go lay an egg....) I just got my friend from
> Cali to buy 20000 shares on my recommendation(I told him to buy AUY
> when it hit $4...He likes my advice...)
Killerkaul, I see you were rated down as soon as you posted your comment, see that means someone doesn't have a life but rate the positive people down. Someone on here needs to get a life, huh? My dog is white and I am hopping yours in not really blue but if it is that is fine. English is my third language so I may be missing something. Take care! G
On Jan 28 05:16 PM killerkaul wrote:
> relmor................... posts are getting positive marks from me.
> I'm buying siri shares also. ..LONG SIRI!!!! ... NO FEAR!!!!!!!!!
> .. Run Blue Dog Runnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn... ...killer.
On Jan 28 05:26 PM Gina2009 wrote:
>
> Killerkaul, I see you were rated down as soon as you posted your
> comment, see that means someone doesn't have a life but rate the
> positive people down. Someone on here needs to get a life, huh? My
> dog is white and I am hopping yours in not really blue but if it
> is that is fine. English is my third language so I may be missing
> something. Take care! G
>
> On Jan 28 05:16 PM killerkaul wrote:
On Jan 28 05:37 PM Gina2009 wrote:
> OK, so now I am down 2 on my last comment. So for a woman my feelings
> are hurt already but I am ready to be part of this group only the
> positive ones on here matter to me. So whoever you are Mr Minus get
> a life and share rather than hide behind a computer. I really don't
> care about the rating, but I am hopping am welcome to the club that
> believes in SIRI! Gina
Don't let them get you down.... In five days they have awarded me with another 400 plus negative posts. We must be raising some concern to have such an intense campaign waged against all those who post realistic opinions on what's possible for this company. I thought it was just a one time thing but, every one posting here for months has been getting whacked with these negative ratings over last couple of weeks (except for a few). They have gone all the way back and put ratings on posts no longer relevant. What's the point??? It's not like anyone is going to stop us from writing our opinions. Why not just debate the issues?
All are welcome as far as I am concerned..... I have know idea what's up with the ratings. Believers or non believers it really doesn't matter as long as the issues are debated rationally....
On Jan 28 06:12 PM satellite radio is dead wrote:
> Once the Q4 numbers reveal the death and despair, it'll be painfully
> clear that bankruptcy is the only option for Sirius XM. I still
> think the feds take this company over. It's extremely strategic
> in this liberal Congress' efforts to invoke the Fairness Doctrine.
> Certainly explains the successful stall tactics last year by Dorgan
> and other liberal senators. The common stock is a zero, you're torturing
> yourself if you think this stock has any hope.
I just blew coffee on my screen....Thats about an ascinine a comment on here I have ever read...HAHAHAHHAAAA
Thanks bro, I needed that...They wont even take GM over or GE but there going to take over Sirius....LOL LOL They wont even take a bank over officially......LOL LOL LOL
Q4 is going to be a very good quarter. Even if its a terrible quarter, the government still isnt taking them over...Maybe there taking your brain over...
So basically this is what we can conclude about you Satellite is dead based on facts..
1. You have no life.
2. You are bad at stock analyis...
3. Your a mystic..(You know the future)
4. You dont know math(selling after buying over 1.50 doesnt make mathematical sense, law of probablility are now on your side to recoup some losses if not all...
5. Im betting your not good with the ladies either...Thats a fact I just sense..cant explain it...
Whatever you do don't post your email, pictures or anything else of a personal nature. As far as I am concerned Gina2009 is who you are no further proof needed. Try not to pay to much attention to the ratings. Instead just feel free to engage other posters and their opinions. Yours will be as good as any other if based on the facts at hand.
Take "Satellite Radio is Dead's" comments. They are based on the continued poor performance of the stock price, the silence from the company, and the fear that all investors have regarding their investment. Little else is fact, just supposition... His or Her concern for our tortured soles is irrelevant and feds and Congress taking over this company absurd..... but entertaining. Fairness Doctrine, liberal Senators, and it being extremely strategic, mean little in determining what will happen next... So sit back relax, and post your opinions away.... and let the haters be damned.
NFL would sue to make sure their contract remained the same...
MLB would sue to make sure their contract remained the same..(They arent dumb either) If they thought this merger was planned to take them to bankrupcty so they can rework contracts, Oprah will sue, Howard will sue, and NASCAR will sue....
Jim Cramer would be sued....
Goldman Sachs would have about a million lawsuits..
You would lose around 5 million subs that day....
Only reason to go to bankrupcty is to redo existing contracts, but there is way too much evidence that the merger would have been used as an excuse to risk,,, They would be tied up in bankrupcty court for a long long time....Losing subs daily....
clean up that screen man, your a mess!!! Good points though, keep them coming..... I think your right on about the haters... The louder they speak the closer we get to something positive on this company breaking through the malaise.....
Bankrupcty buys you time, thats all. Does nothing to improve your business. When your a media information company that relies on loyal supporters and image, bankrupcty doesnt get you one penny..
Nor does bankruptcy erase debt...It just lets some judge tell you who to pay, and who has to wait to get paid, while the creditors bight their nails...Im sure all those creditors want the bk nightmare...Bondholder... wont get paid, they would be last....Banks first sorry bros...Banks would rather they have a steady flow of money, than to change bk...All those options for the board, directors, Howard...worthless...A... those shares all those insitutions and funds bought..worthless....
Worst case scenario they sell more bonds to be paid back at a later date...That is the WORST CASE SCENARIO.....
Your right about the Chapter 11. It would soon become Chapter 7, making everyone a loser. Not much of a plan........
Relmor, Really I liked you more few days ago. You don't make any sence now! Am confused? maybe the language barrier is hitting me now ( english third language) ! But why don't you be yourself and F Mr minus I liked you more before he got to you! Geessssse now I have to try and understand your stand from him manipulating you to be negative. Please keep this real for my 350k of my Siris depends on the believe that I was not a dumb ass to believe in this company! Gina
On Jan 28 06:56 PM relmor wrote:
> If they file Chapter 11, they would never get out of court....XM
> stockholders would be first in line...Then Sirius stockholders...then
> subscribers who bought lifetime subs...
> NFL would sue to make sure their contract remained the same...
>
> MLB would sue to make sure their contract remained the same..(They
> arent dumb either) If they thought this merger was planned to take
> them to bankrupcty so they can rework contracts, Oprah will sue,
> Howard will sue, and NASCAR will sue....
> Jim Cramer would be sued....
> Goldman Sachs would have about a million lawsuits..
> You would lose around 5 million subs that day....
> Only reason to go to bankrupcty is to redo existing contracts, but
> there is way too much evidence that the merger would have been used
> as an excuse to risk,,, They would be tied up in bankrupcty court
> for a long long time....Losing subs daily....
Killer nailed it when he wrote a few articles ago to just stop the rating game but I couldn't help myself, it was fun to see folks that I identify with in the top ratings. But I'll stop now. Keep up the great rhetoric, it keeps those of us who've been long for awhile just that much saner.
Avg'd down to around .5 now...
The central banks want to control Sirius radio 100 percent...They force chapter 11, and become the new owners(behind the scenes) as the new bondholders...The shorts never have to cover and its a tax free trade...
Now you would have to be insane to believe this of course....
The Chapter 7 bashers know most wont buy that, so they go with the only fear card they have...chapter 11...Thats where the ruthless judge comes in and spanks all stockholders, and hands the company over the the bondholders...Who if the bashers are correct, are now the new losers of all their money......LOL LOL LOL LOL
I like how bashers think chapter 11 does anything other than buy them time....And since they are doomed, what does a few more months matter...
My position is pretty small in terms of the big players but in my reality it is big and every month I keep buying and lowering my break even point and maybe increasing my upside. As Relmor put it there is nothin else to do but buy more...
The news is finaly changing and the folks that will turn this tide have not a clue of the message boards and the investors. It is the folks that keep buying the product that are making the difference in the stock.
I know music conasuers (sic) that gave up cd's and recorded music for sat rad. others i know luv the talk shows. I have no time to be recording stuff and playing it back to myself. I think the same goes for many that actualy buy and will buy the product.
I will keep buying and make some money or lose it all. It is money i am gambling with anyway...
Cheers and i woud realy like to meet you... Just got my passport and can meet you anywhere in the satellite world
On Jan 28 05:55 PM Gina2009 wrote:
> lol, is this for real, I open my mouth and am minus 1....Geeessssssssssss!
> I better shut up huh? I still believe that we are all waiting but
> we should all receive because we are believers and none believers
> shouldn't be here right???? Gina
Speaking for killer, the big blue dog is the SiriXm logo. He always ends his posts with run blue dog run. hope that helps. Welcome to the blog.
Cos, Sl62, 16388, Relmor
thanks for keeping us informed. Your knowledge and opinions are appreciated.
Come out come out...let us see you. Nothing worse than a coward.
I'm still with Killer rules...no ratings.
One guy mentioned the Apple news. More steps...if for nothing else great exposure in their storefront. What's not to like? Overall we closed above 868 today. Very bullish...and we'll take it. Bottoms are in everywhere you look...including right here in this stock. Haters, your days are numbered here. Then you can go spread your hate elsewhere... Enjoy your final days pushing buttons...
Sorry about your bullish close, what was important was the 15 min candie right after the FED announcement, Plunge Protection Team to save the day, and a bs close...Look at what the S & P did after close, and futures are down...The other key point of the day was the smackdown the 8400 resistance DOW level gave the market, was like it flew into a wall, and fell back...50 point drop in under a minute...Shorters are lurkering there, and the longs have no balls...Balls must be aquired and shorts need one more down swing to exhaust themselves for awhile..
again, thanks for your comments. i tend to agree. I'm optimistic about q4 and hope to see continued improvement across the board. just a little worried about the overall impact on churn that this severe recession is having. but that too could be offset with higher penetration rate of vehicles coming off the line equipped with sat rad. all in all i see this thing moving in the right direction. everyone has so many ideas about what this company should be doing, and the lack of effective marketing...i don't get all those complaints. company as a merged entity is only a couple quarters old and climbing a severe mountain of debt and other operational challenges. I think Mel is doing just what he needs to do by sticking to the basics, watching costs and all the other steps required just to keep this company solvent. Mel is no dummie...once he gets some breathing room I'm sure you'll see the company get a lot more creative with strategic partnerships and great identity building marketing that will take us to the next level. but that is "then"...today we are in the "now" which requires caution, operational conservatism, optimziing synergies of the merger, etc. I feel, just like many of us...that we are really close to turning a corner. not sure if 3/1 brings us all the answers, but hopefully enough to eliminate threat of BK restore confidence in the street,
Then to test 8400 again...If that doesnt break...oooooo. that would be very bad, or if 8000 gets broken again...oooo very bad...
In honor of the Motley Retarded I have some nominees for the worst stock of 09 that still exists...
Sirius...LOL No way...
Try FRE
FNM
Bear Sterns...LOL(Ok thats cheating.. but you see my point already..)
How about AIG...
Or GM...
Sirius? Ok....Thats a neat little choice...Percentage wise it wasnt the worst, and of all the companies Ive mentioned above, all are bankrupty officially without governemnt support...So I think Sirius will do better in 09 than the above stocks will....
blog.wired.com/busines...
This too......
According to these sources, the uSirius StarPlayr app will be submitted to the Apple Store by Saturday, January 31st. After submitting, Apple simply needs to approve the iPhone app, and it will go public.
It really needs to be highlighted that the developers have no control over how long the approval process takes. Apple sometimes will approve apps immediately, or sometimes will go back and forth with the developers until they're satisfied.
Bottom line: for many anxious iPhone users, the wait will soon be over and you'll be able to listen to Sirius XM on the iPhone.
I dont see how that hurts....LOL LOL
Hey, Fat and Stubby...Where you at today? ....I miss u....
I would still be happy to see .425 but I'd rather see it in 3 mon.
Making another buy today.
On Jan 28 04:27 PM relmor wrote:
> You will not convince people who bought in over $1.50 to sell on
> my watch...Its immoral and evil to try to make people sell that have
> bought that high up...
> No risk left for them....ZERO....The balance of the 5% left CANT
> be better spent...Time to sell ended..Now time to hold...Theres a
> time for everything, just like the song says...
On Jan 29 11:47 AM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, It's my fault. No matter how I try to time a buy the price always
> drops further as soon as I buy.
siriusbuzz.com/nicemac...
On Jan 28 09:28 AM Sirius sucks wrote:
> If Sirius does a reverse split, I bet a hundred million dollars the
> shorts will push the stock back below a dollar in less than 6 months.
what do you estimate SIRI will go up to in Feb/March?
. . Feb 15 is Debt day. But don't expect any surprises. Cash on hand can be used for resolution, or stock offerings. Price right now is impacted by the economy and the option to offer shares (dilution). I don't expect anything serious (Sirius. . . LOL) until after the May Debt and positive Car sales. Any Domestic sales trending above 10.5Mil will have an positive impact on stock. Otherwise I don't expect to see any change till the December Debt is taken care of and revenue from subscriptions to at least hold steady!
Does anyone disagree?
How long till it breaks 1.00$ without RS?
Would enjoy anyone's opinion or disagreement with previous opinions.
Im not a customer, but do own an iPhone and am very excited about the possible revenue and resulting increase in SP that the new app will generate. It's really amazing what this little "phone" can do, what a minor portion of it the actual phone function really is.
Anyway, cheers everyone. Best of luck on your future stock picks.
Is there a cliff notes version that spells out liabilities versus income A link to a prospectus would be nice but a fre link to 2008 4th Q financials would be preferred.
I do think 163888 said it best when he said: "So now we are back to anything is possible."
wrcorowitz, having just taken a long road trip myself, I can also agree that without sat rad., it would have been a much longer trip. Central Massachusetts to Charlotte, NC area, down Interstate 81 through the Appalachia's, it was nice to have the consistent programming. The exposure in rental cars would be great and should be a focus with introductory and free trial offers to consumers to give them a taste of what's possible. We here a lot of talk about people on these boards canceling subs, but I don't believe their BS. Like you said, once you get used to it as with cable TV, it becomes a part of your quality of life experience. I think a Sirius Xm Blog, sponsored by the company or company approved partners, would be a great to generate product improving ideas.
As far as the stock's price, I just feel that debt and bankruptcy risk, are what's holding it back. What keeps me from adding to my shares? Its Not A Sure Thing Here.... and there are many other opportunities in the short term. Having said that, as relmor says, you would have to be crazy to sell here, but I am now careful about adding any new money, before I here from the company. There will be opportunities if things are to right financially for a change..... A lot of new money that go in at these stock prices will be getting out early, creating opportunity.
The 4Q numbers will be more important than the annual report because of the mixed accounting that "fog's" the numbers. I really believe that, as many here feel, February debt is not an issue, news would be nice, but a non issue just the same. COH is what we really need to focus on, and how it will be deployed. I agree with 888's regarding 4Q FCF and think Best of Both, subscription resets as part of this program, auto penetration at the OEM's, and additional retail subscribers, will generate a Unique 2008 Year of 4Q numbers.
Traditional stats (operating metrics), like churn, sac, arpu, take rates and the like, will be skewed by the new programs and the hurt auto sales, some up and some down. So for me, it will be about COH in the 4Q (and we need a nice surprise), debt restructuring of which May 5, 2009 is now the most significant hurdle to jump (an extension out until mid 2010 with some pay down would also be nice), and some idea of how December debt will be handled. I think the Feb debt, 4Q, and Annual will be announced at the same time, leaving short any real news on the debt restructuring plan. The CC will be short and sweet with an announcement as to the debt restructuring plan coming in two weeks, say Feb 27th, a Friday (only if its bad), or the week of March 2nd, say Thusday, March 5th (more of an event).
Lets face it if the company cannot refinance its debt then they will not pay the remaining debt due on the Feb 15th, they will say how they tried but couldn't (wouldn't pay the rate), and will go the way of Chapter 11. We will know this shortly. They will not announce the 4Q and Annual unless they already have the debt resolved, and only details left to complete. The rest will be showmanship and an effort to get everyone on the Street to pay attention while Mel shows them how they did the impossible. A debt restructuring plan that removes BK from 2009, will cause an immediate and significant pop. The correction that s162 talked about will occur, and IMO getting over a buck in short order is easy. This stock price is priced for bankruptcy right now. If the debt plan cannot be actualized they will announce BK (Chapter 11) instead of the 4Q and Annual. Otherwise debt restructuring will take BK off the table and then..... Anything Is Possible.
Wont see 4th quarter results until late February, after Feb Debt comes due. Probably about the 25th, similar to last year. Financials from last year won't help too much. XM & Sirius operations are now combined. Check out the 3rd quarter financials for latest from company. My Previous posts have some info on Debt. If you cant follow my past posts send another message, I'll be glad to dig up the old data. To see financial holders of this stock and others go to mffais.com. There has been some Debt resolution since merger, but not much.
What was your old pseudonym ?
Thanks for the MFFAIS web site.. 174mil shares for Ameriprise surprised me.
Cos1000 thanks for the details.. I guess I got a little research to check out those operating metrics for subscriber services. Up till now have only dealt in Bio/Pharm Companys.
Good post as always.
I can't believe I just was actually nice to Slick Rick over at the Fool but, I have to say he's gotten it (I still let 24/7 Doug M and this new idiot James R have it though lol). But finally, and of late, he finally gets that if SIRI was headed for BK, it would already be done. There would be no reason to wait until now, February. But his article was on that idiot James R @ Barclays, who just dropped covering SIRI because "they are a lottery ticket." And only trade on if the debt will be addressed. What a DOPE!!! Somebody's got to slap that guy upside the head. Now only SIRI is a lottery ticket? Really? People who make inane statements are just a scream.
But most importantly Slick Rick finally brought some goods. Accurate goods and exactly what we've been talking about this week. He said (and uh, listen up doubters and haters):
>>If you want to make some easy money with your financially dim buddies, bet them that they can't guess what the price of Sirius would be if the market's perceived value of the company would double.
The correct answer isn't $0.22, based on its $0.11 starting point. It's actually closer to a buck, when you factor in the company's debt load to arrive at an enterprise value of roughly $3.4 billion. If it's enterprise value would double to nearly $7 billion, that's where the stock price -- and market cap -- would have to be.<<
How about 'dim posters'!! LOL...this is exactly what some of us are trying to say about SP correction. When BK is not influencing this stock, it's the same (but now when debt addressed an even better) stock it was as the revalue of late July. Because that SP was based on it's EV also. Further, underlying internal metrics have even improved since the revalue (but of course short-nose James R doesn't care about that!). Adding in likely likely dilution with new shares, SP based on the new EV is most likely around $1.10 - $1.25 (straight up, little if any spec premium). Haters are so gullible and can't see past the nose on their face. They say this stock is dead. It's no where near as dead as you are in your heads...and if that's so, you have no reason being here and posting stupid comments. Why waste your ummmm, valuable time!? Just to get your rocks off for sure (and push little red buttons!) lol.
And to you idiot red button pushers: I don't care if my rating is minus 5000!! You idiots! Means nothing anymore. Click away losers!!!
Killer Rules: no ratings.
relmor...
I wasn't planing on using all of my 8150 (or your 8140) today lol! Watch out tomorrow guys. GDP numbers...Good news is if headline number is even -3 (upside surprise), combined with Amazon's Q, we could sky tomorrow, which would kick off the next real rally. And even -6 (expected) is baked in. But if it's worse than that, I don't know what to tell ya...
Just to be clear..... my post about of what my opinion is about the company, was not directed at you..... but if it fills your J. Springer fix then, Whateverrrrrrrr..........
Good analogy to Springer. Some here are Jerry and the rest are the f'd up guests....lol
Great explanation of this company's risk based valuation and very intuitive..... I had been looking at this stock for so long as just a beat up company, misunderstood by the street and full of potential, that I had forgotten how quickly we came down to these levels on that anticipated failure.... What value success??? ..... Now that's the real question. Thanks for keeping it straight and me thinking..........
Im long S & P...Long gold..Long Nat. Gas. long grains..and well...to be honest Im just long....I was short today though..Rode SRS for 3 dollars, and S & P for 4 down...Today is another tune...Futures up..SPY closed up afterhours...here we go!!!
Maybe I'm missing something......but with financial institutions swapping SIRI/XM debt notes for stock recently, wouldn't that suggest they see or know something positive that would make them willing to trade those debt notes for shares? Just a simple question to try and clear the pretzels out of my head.
I don't disagree with you that the note holders exchanging shares for debt are, as us believers are, seeing the positive in this company's future and they have access to more information than we do. Quite frankly, its the only reason I still own a position in this company. My point was that if they are going into BK, which is an unlikely possibility IMHO, we will know before or at the same time as that Feb 15th $175M is paid or 4thQ and the 2008 Annual is reported. BK cannot be taken off the table until it is off the table by restructuring debt. I believe that date is Feb 15th. The time that the company has had to restructure debt is at hand. Mel said by March 1st he would have the plan for 2009. If he over delivers as everyone says he is famous for, why not announce debt restructuring, 4Q and annual at or near the same time. Otherwise why hold off?
Thanks for your opinion. The folks here for the most part are well informed and civil and it makes it a pleasure to read and post here. Sometimes I like to validate my thoughts, and I appreciate the ability to do that here with input from folks like yourself. The more eyes the better.
no problem and I agree with your take on the discussion and reasonableness of most who post here..... most of us are here to try and piece together the puzzle that has become this company and salvage some or all of our lost investments.....
Here's a link to Siriusbuzz.com and an article that speaks to our discussion written by Brandon Matthews.
siriusbuzz.com/sirius-...
thanks for the link.
asm610...
This company is not stupid. They've lookd at their options by now and certainly before the end of '08 they knew what they had a shot at and what they did not. The new share traunch they hold is their reserve if and when needed. But they also are partnered with the right people in the likes of JPM. If SIRI owes JPM right now at least 250M (of the inherited XM facility due May 9), do you think they want to see SIRI hit BK court right now (esp with all other debt that would have to be divyed up)? In a sick way, SIRI having all this debt (with a variety of lenders) actually helps their situation and causes all lenders to want to help "keep this boat" floating. Think about it. They know if they cause a Chapter, now way are they guaranteed x recovery. There are too many players involved and it's to uncertain who would get what. Basically that's one huge frickin mess to all lenders that they'd rather not be part of. And I wouldn't put it past Mel to be using that very card in negotiations (in a suble kind of way!). So yes, people like Jaime D will be happy to extend that facility, etc...IMHO.
Also, my thinking is no way would SIRI have already been dealing shares (and that were accepted by GS), if they were even considering filing. Although, there is one counter thought that strikes me as remotely plausible...the fact that they've so far only dealt "a cetrtain number of shares" to-date, that as GS is a long time partner, they are siphoning "some" assets to GS before a big free-for-all begins. But again, I view that as highly suspect largely because of JPM. I think JPM is the golden player in this and who knows, maybe Mel already had talked wth Jaime before the deal was done about needing to extend and got a commitment. Maybe that was what allowed him to pull the trigger in the end. You would think he almost had to. I mean if you were about to inherit $250M in debt from one lender (that was coming due in 8 months time), wouldn't you talk to them about future options? I know I would.
Personally I think the scenario is more like this: SIRI continues to work on best options for handling Feb Notes. Don't forget, Mel put together the buyout deal in one week with a large chunk in one night before the deal close. So I think a few options are in place and they are just waiting until the last minute to decide which way is best. And the to-date small traunches of shares were good faith chipping away in the meantime. I think the May bank debt extensions are generally approved and they are just in negotiations about new interest rates (with regard to Libor, etc..). I think the Dec Notes will be announced as "in negotiations" into this summer but with a certainty that they will be addressed outside of BK. And it will noted that as our economy improves as do markets this year, so do opportunities at best options for Dec debt. I truly believe that going into a Chapter right now makes little sense for way too many players in this drama...
See what's going on here? Obama is going for the jugular to defend the middle class..thereby diluting de rigeur profits for the elite (Rebub conservatives)....and they are not happy!!!! Obama is going to undo everything that GWB fought to preserve for all his elitist Repub brethren...
Didn't mean to imply the company was stupid at all. In fact my comments were in response to some on here who take Bankruptcy as the scare tactic that it is and beat it to death in hopes of making us all feel more miserable than we already do about the stock price. We all know there is a chance that Bankruptcy could happen...but given the circumstances of the past few months, I for one do not believe it is happening any time soon, and alot of my reasons for feeling that way are in your post above, as well as some other posts I've read here at Seeking Alpha. My earlier post was only meant to employ psychological warfare on our opponents and their negative constant spin! The fact that cos 1000 and you expanded on it made me feel correct in my assessment and i am sure pissed off alot of the naysayers that come here.....at least in the short term.....but they'll be back!
$56,850 Republican
$128,000 Democrat
$32,456 special interest
total: $217,306
He even gave 2500 to NAB in 1990
On Jan 30 11:25 AM sl62 wrote:
> Interesting...
>
> See what's going on here? Obama is going for the jugular to defend
> the middle class..thereby diluting de rigeur profits for the elite
> (Rebub conservatives)....and they are not happy!!!! Obama is going
> to undo everything that GWB fought to preserve for all his elitist
> Repub brethren...
correction that was 27500 to NAB over years
On Jan 30 11:39 AM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, Mels political contributions
>
> $56,850 Republican
> $128,000 Democrat
> $32,456 special interest
> total: $217,306
> He even gave 2500 to NAB in 1990
....and your point is
No worries. Wasn't attacking you in any way...just giving my take. Your opinion is valued...
Yeah, all anyone can do is try to interpret many confusing facts and rumors and try to make sense of it. I say it's better than lurking in the shadows clicking little red buttons and blaming the world like some do here.
As far as my 11:25 post...I'm meaning that Obama has come out strong for the middle class...which seems to have the wealthy running a bit scared all of a sudden. Don't know if you saw this AM's press conference with him and Biden. But everything they're doing is pro union, pro transparency and pro the middle guy. As you know most government, the markets, banks, all cater to the rich (and have for some time)...something it apears Obama is apparently going to try to change. The Stim Plan looks like it's more geared toward creating lower/middle class jobs than bail out the wealthy (who are the ones now scared stiff about how they are gong to make money if these toxic assets aren't dealt with). Obama went after bonuses of the wealthy yesterday and it appears to me it's going to become more and more apparent he is not only not pro-rich (as GWB was), he's anti. The scary part is how to walk the line. Dems now have complete control of Congress and can almost pass anything they want. A little scary and a lot of power. All I say, is whatever plans get passed, it better be right. But I see the wealthy are starting to scream already about where this all could be heading for them and the gravy train they've been riding the past 8 years.
As a middle classer, I'm all in favor of more manufacturing and other middle class jobs obviously. My only issue right now is how you approach making change. We all know Obama ran on a change ticket and he's showing already he was not fooling around. But we have a delicate situation at hand right now where we need a mix of fixing the last 8 years and also making positive changes for the middle guy. Alienating big money right now all at once, may not totally be the best medicine with our economy and markets in such a fragile state. I'm looking for a deft transition and change for the better, not a brave new world in 6 months that keeps our economy stuck in the mud for the next 2 years. The
Street cheered Obama taking over from "the other guy". What I don't want to see is the Street suddenly go sour on him because he begins ass-kicking a non-popular agenda too hard too fast. If that happens, it could be a LOOOONG '09 and possibly '10 (if not '11 and '12). That's exactly what we don't want so I hope he understands the need for "a deft touch"...
That's much more than I was saying in my earlier post, but there it is...
On Exxon. Yeah, how about it. What last Q4 was like 25B and this one was only 12B (somwhere in there)...awwwww, we feel bad for them. Still a record year due to last 3Q's (like 45B). Now we feel REAL bad for them!!!
Ridiculous.
I think you misread my point...I, like others are not necessarily in favor of this stim bill they are trying to pass. It's addressing the wrong issues upfront. That's why I said, my fear is he's going to attack this thing with blinders on, only trying to make good on his campaign promises and cause us to choke for the next few years. Fighting for the middle guy right now just with programs and jobs (which as you say have ramp up time), should not be the priority. What should be is without fail, setting up some kind of exchange or bad bank or whatever works to deal with the original TA in TARP: Troubled Assets. And my bigger fear is they can now pass just about anything..and that's scary for any party.
Love your analogy about Texas hold 'em.
Agree with your asssessment although...
I'm not sure first TARP traunch was a total waste. Most of that money was injected as Preferreds with a 5% rate that goes up to 9% after 5 years. So the cash is not just gone and should all be coming back eventually with interest. Taxpayers are already making money on the principal. Also, I'd hate to see where we'd be in the market and general economy had that TARP not been created. Paulson had no choice but to inject into banks (@ interest) to stablize confidence because as we see, trying to set up some kind of bad bank, or separate exchange to trade those bad securities is just not an easy thing. In those days when Paulson changed up, I think he had no choice. We needed some kind of confidence, and fast, to stablize. So that was 350B I think well" loaned" considering the alternative. IMHO...
Totally agree about the pork, this buy only american bs, and programs only aimed at creating gov "jobs". As 163888 said, with a 7% unemployment rate, the gov has no reason to outright just go out and create jobs. Now if the rate was 33% like the depression, yes you have to. But not at 7 or even 10. As said, my fear is Obama is too locked on being seen as "fighting for the middle guy" and loses sight of what really needs to be addressed first. And I don't care if it's Dem or Repub, any kind of absolute majority is inviting badness. And his hard line in that direction so far has me worried. Getting us out of this will take the just the right strategy and keen scope...not just tryng to prove a point that you're all about getting working class people "back to work" in gov created jobs.
So Monday is Feb 2. Exactly 10 trading days until Feb Notes are due. Market is closed Feb 16 so we might not hear anything until Tuesday Feb 17. Or...we might not hear anything at all I have to add. I just went through this with another stock that had Notes due on Oct 15. Oct 15 came and went with no news release. About two weeks later the company formerly released that transaction completion with other financial bank news of theirs. So one would think in this case, we'll hear but stranger things have happened...a word to the wise. I guess just depends where it all stands. I'm still seeing earnings looking like 2/23. They might wait until then to release that and all debt news...getting closer!
I just noticed we closed @ .12 for the first time in a while. The small things tend to rule the day nowadays. Hey, I'll take it...
2 year moratorium on personal, SS, employment taxes.
This gives consumers all their income to spend on the items that the gov says we need to buy in order for the economy to be stimulated. People will now have 100, 200, whatever amount more each month and they can create a budget.
This 1000 for each person stuff is a joke. I know if they give me a 1000 and tell me how tuff it's going to get, I will stash the money for harder times.
Corporate taxes get reduced so they can afford to keep employees and keep their businesses solvent.
Last but not least... the gov needs to cut its spending to offset the zero $ they will be getting from 0 taxes.
Wouldn't this actually STIMULATE the economy?
Congress' SPENDING, IMHO, on margin, is what got us in this predicament.
Koop
Right now, Obama is scaring me. And he'd better watch it because the Street falls out of love very quickly. They will turn on him (and all of us parasites who slave to the big money of the Street) before we know it if he's leading us down the wrong path. It could get ugly. He's got to get repubs in the conversation and alter this bill so we can move forward not backward.
Hey aren't we lucky...worst Jan in the market ever...
Koop..did you get removed too? You were always pretty straight up weren't ya?
Why not a tax holiday? I like it. Gov is so focused on giving us money back, why not just let us keep all our actual pay for one year. Then, since they're going to "spend" money they don't have anyway (print or borrow), use that money to fund what would otherwise come from our taxes (i.e. government and social programs). Done!
Then use other traunches as needed to focus on the toxic assets/new exchange to trade them. Getting a handle on that gets confidence moving, gets more credit flowing, gets consumers spending again (their own money), gets businesses doing more business (and gets them hiring again), gets people back to work....etc...then next year we go back to regular tax year.
Did you guys hear that female Senator is introducing a bill that any institution that has or received TARP money cannot have any management or employees that make more than the Prez? (400K). How 'bout them apples? What da heck?
JanA 01/12/09 6.00 219.63 M
DecB 12/26/08 5.00 214.74 M
DecA 12/10/08 5.10 263.77 M
This brings up a good point. Some here (shall remain nameless to protect the guilty) have doubted that anyone would short an .11, .12, .13, stock etc...guess again.
Indie investors cannot short ANY stock less than $5 because you are not marginable to your broker. Certain institutions, hedgies, MM's, et al CAN and will short ANY stock they care to.
Thanks for the "straight up" comment. I'd like to think i was...am...LOL
Been lurking around recently. trying to make heads or tails with SIRI and market in general.
Appreciate all you guys comments...bantering.....
Koop
On Jan 30 05:20 PM sl62 wrote:
> 127981...
>
> Koop..did you get removed too? You were always pretty straight up
> weren't ya?
>
> Why not a tax holiday? I like it. Gov is so focused on giving us
> money back, why not just let us keep all our actual pay for one year.
> Then, since they're going to "spend" money they don't have anyway
> (print or borrow), use that money to fund what would otherwise come
> from our taxes (i.e. government and social programs). Done!
>
> Then use other traunches as needed to focus on the toxic assets/new
> exchange to trade them. Getting a handle on that gets confidence
> moving, gets more credit flowing, gets consumers spending again (their
> own money), gets businesses doing more business (and gets them hiring
> again), gets people back to work....etc...then next year we go back
> to regular tax year.
Is the new link you refer the one where you and cos are "loosing it" over the iPhone issue?
Man you guys gotta take a couple of deep breaths. You're gonna blow n anurism.
Koop
Thanks for the advise on keeping an anurism from becoming a reality. Your advice on stopping government revenues for 2 years seems to assume that all that revenue comes from recipients of government social programs. With SS being a slush fund for the general fund, what pays for the elders to get their contracted and well deserved retirement checks or medicare. Nice to throw out simple solutions, but where's the responsibility in government's promise to its retirees.??
It's late.... and I will salute you all, but the future on its current path, with those leading us who have no idea about sacrifice, does not have me sleeping well..........
Cos....
Whoooaaa nelly!
Nobody said anything about kicking the elderly or throwing puppy's out with the bath water.
I know it was a simplistic argument on fixing the economy, but it was a "concept"
If the gov is going to print money, to do whatever the hell they have in mind with this bailout package, I'm certain that they would continue to print enough to make SS payments. The whole economy is a ponzy. Robb Peter to pay Paul.
The citizens of this country learned how to be putz's from the best instructors....The US Gov.
"where's the responsibility in government's" period!!!
Congrats on making it to "double nickels", I did 2 weeks ago. btw.. I have a 12 yo son and there isn't a day goes by I don't think about how this multi-trillion dollar cluster "fiasco" is going to affect his life.
Now for my first cup of java.
have a great weekend and SSunday!!
Koop
look at it this way...If I'm going to borrow a trillion dollars and put the payments on the shoulders of everyone in the future, what the f...let's just make it a trillion and a half...who's counting...Call me a buffoon for thinking simplistically, but sometimes the best way to reach your goal is on the straight path.."grasshopper"
Koop
the problem with the welfare state that we are heading to, is and has been perpetuated by the very folks that are creating the plan to correct their past sins. When in this country's past has the gov reduced spending and reduced personal taxes? this country has been spending money it doesn't have...the citizens have been living their live's above their financial means...gov pushing low interest loans , many of which were made to unqualified folks. Bubble burst and now we have the whole system melting. I don't see gov spending doing much more that perpetuating the problem...gov needs to stimulate us to spend our money not borrowed money...IMH simple O
Koop
How much does the country spend every day on Waterman pens when the pres signs documents? I bet we spend 10's of thousands giving away perfectly good/full pens...:)
Koop