Today, we ran a series of market conditions tests on the 469 dividend champions, contenders and challengers list maintained by David Fish (we are forever grateful to him for those lists).
The test covered a variety of measures using moving averages, and price position within various ranges, and also the linear regression trend slopes of all 469 stocks in David's list.
Do-it-yourself dividend investors might find some of the test data helpful.
Here is a list of the 10 most overbought of those dividend stalwarts.
|CPB||CAMPBELL SOUP ORD|
|AXS||AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS ORD|
|BIP||BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTUR PARTNER UNT|
|CINF||CINCINNATI FINANCIAL ORD|
|WTR||AQUA AMERICA ORD|
|EOG||EOG RESOURCES ORD|
|RBC||REGAL BELOIT ORD|
|AWK||AMERICAN WATER WORKS ORD|
|WES||WESTERN GAS PARTNERS UNT|
|ADI||ANALOG DEVICES ORD|
Overbought/Oversold, for this exercise is defined in terms of the price position within the top and bottom 2 standard deviation 63-day Bollinger Bands (2 standard deviations either side of the 63-day moving average). A value of 1.00 means the price is at the upper 2 standard deviation boundary, and a 0.00 means the price is at the lower 2 standard deviation boundary.
While it is possible to be overbought without being at highs, the 10 we identified are both at 1-year high prices, and above their 63-day 2-standard deviation upper boundaries -- probabilistically vulnerable to a reaction move.
And, here is a list of the 10 that are the most below their trailing 1-year high price.
|BBY||BEST BUY ORD|
|FRS||FRISCHS RESTAURANTS ORD|
|NUS||NU SKIN ENTERPRISES CL A ORD|
|RAVN||RAVEN INDUSTRIES ORD|
|JCS||COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS ORD|
|KGC||KINROSS GOLD ORD|
|PBI||PITNEY BOWES ORD|
When price levels go at least 10% below their 1-year high, they are considered in a correction. When they go at least 20% below their 1-year high, they are considered in a bear condition.
The data tables provide several other market condition facts for each of the companies. This is a legend for the column headings in the tables.
C/21 = the Closing price divided by the 21-day (1 market month) simple moving average ("SMA")
C/63 = the Closing price divided by the 63-day (3 market months) simple moving average
C/252 = the Closing price divided by the 252-day (1 market year) simple moving average
21/63 = 21-day SMA / 63-day SMA
63/252 = 63-day SMA / 252-day SMA
POS252 = position of closing price in the 252-day (1 year) price range [1 = top, 0 = bottom]
POS-5 = POS252 minus POS252 5 days ago [ negative values means price is moving down, positive means price is moving up]
%BB63 = position of closing price in the 63-day (3 month) range of the 2-standard deviation bands surrounding the 63-day SMA [2 standard deviations on both sides of the moving average is the expected range for 97.72% of prices -- meaning only about 1% chance of being above or below -- values above 1 are considered Overbought and below 0 are considered Oversold
%BB63-10 is the current %BB63 minus the %BB63 10 days ago [negative values means the price direction within the volatility range is declining -- if the %BB63 is above 0.5 and %BB63 is negative, then the price is approaching the moving average. If the %BB63 is less than 0.5 and the %BB63 is negative, then the price is below the moving average and moving away from the average)
TrailOff = the percentage difference between the 1-year trailing high price and the current price [values are always negative unless they are a new high -- values of negative 10 percent or more are in "correction" mode up to negative 20 percent which is "bear market" level]
SLP21 = the 21-day (1 month) linear regression slope divided by the price [ by dividing by the price, the slopes of the securities are "normalized" ] -- negative values are for declining trend, while positive values are for rising trend
SLP252 = same as SLP 21, but for 252 days (1 year)
If you would like to see the market conditions for the other 449 companies in David's champions, contenders and challengers list, you may opt into our mailing list and obtain a free copy of the Excel spreadsheet (.xlsx file format) from our Rational Risk Equity Income Investor website from this link.
Disclosure: QVM has positions in INTC as of the creation date of this article (February 9, 2013). We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article, but are compensated retroactively by Seeking Alpha based on readership of this specific article.
Disclaimer: This article provides opinions and information, but does not contain recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Do your own research or obtain suitable personal advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. This article is presented subject to our full disclaimer found on the QVM site available here.