Microsoft's Windows 7 Is a Threat to Linux - But Watch Out for Google

There's been a recent spate of predictions that Windows 7 will kill off the Linux desktop, especially on netbooks. My favorite title so far is Windows kicks Linux to the curb, which provides a nice visual. Well, I'm not actually going to disagree, at least as far as traditional desktop Linux and netbooks go.

But first, a question to drive a point home. Have you ever used a version of OpenOffice Cloud? Neither have I, because it doesn't exist. The closest you can come is to use Ulteo, a virtualized Linux provider service, started by a previous Mandriva founder -- then everything is running on a VM in the cloud including OpenOffice. If you want to go cloud, you have to use something like Google (GOOG) Docs. And isn't a netbook about the cloud?

Microsoft (MSFT) hasn't been sleeping while the cloud trend has been developing. A few months ago they announced they're extending Office to the browser, with lightweight versions of Word, Excel, PowerPoint and OneNote. And they also announced Azure, their vision of an OS for the cloud. Now, a Linux vendor could pray that a move from XP to Windows 7 on netbooks would mean a return to the days of high priced BOM-based sales (and thus an opportunity for Linux to compete more favorably again). But the reality is, Microsoft will charge whatever the market will bare for netbook platforms, and move the rest of the business to chase the after-market revenues that cloud computing offers. That's something very hard to compete with, for desktop Linux distros which often struggle to stay afloat. This was why I wrote the article about how to make the Linux desktop profitable. The reality is that, in my humble opinion, the Linux distros will never compete well with Windows on BOM-based sales.

So who is the one company who really gets cloud computing, has the infrastructure for it, and an interest in Linux? Google. My take is Windows 7 is a threat to the classic Linux desktop distros. And that Google is the future of the Linux desktop, with Android pushing up the food-chain, and many of Google's infrastructure bits pervading the desktop. Note to distros, belly up to Google...

Disclosure: no positions

Comments

[Jonathan Scott:]

the conversation around Microsoft is changing. It has a more positive tone.

Jan 28 01:32 PM

[Rayken:]

I find it interesting that people are actually saying good things about the beta version of Windows 7. When so many people hated Vista. I need to pick up the beta before they close it down. One of my engineer friends downloaded it, and informed me that it outperformed XP. To put this in perspective, most (if not all) of my engineer friends hate Vista.

Jan 28 02:26 PM

[Bugs Bunny:]

Google and Microsoft each have a lot of catching up to do for their competition. Microsoft from the online powerhouse, Google from the business software powerhouse. I use Google as my search engine, and Microsoft for my business software. Both are the best in those respective areas. Google as an OS? Humm, well we shall see. Does this mean that I will have to use a *browser* as my de-facto UI for every application I work in? (I find that idea laughable). Or is google going to go into the desktop software business as they tried with Google Search? (what happened to the 'cloud'?)

Jan 28 03:56 PM

[obvio.capit...:]

We're watching a new cycle of Moore's law: "Less is Moore".

The computers of 3 years ago are good enought today. Thus, instead of getting more for the same price, people are starting to ask for the same, but for much less.

A laptop configuration that costed $1000 then, can be bought for $300 now -- and will probably cost around $100 in the next 3 years.

Linux already won 20% of the huge netbook market (11 million in 2008), and Microsoft won't be able to compete on price: Windows will always cost more than Linux.

Jan 28 04:00 PM

[Sakami:]

Jonathan's correct. Microsoft is getting a tremendous amount of positive talk as a result of the Windows 7 Beta. Most first adopters are techie types who probably are, more or less, predisposed to dislike Microsoft for a host of reasons. Still, people are pretty impressed with a new operating system that is, after all, still in the testing phase. I can't recall any other Beta release quite catching fire this way. I'm quite impressed with the product.

Jan 28 04:22 PM

[lordshipmayhem:]

Windows is no threat to the Linux desktop: being open source, there's no one single company behind it to go bankrupt and fail, orphaning the operating system. Instead there are not only lots of companies of every size but lots of foundations as well. This fundamental misunderstanding of the economic nature of Linux is what keeps these excited "reporters" breathlessly reporting the imminent demise of Linux.

As long as you continue to want to use Linux, it will continue to be available for you to use.

Jan 28 04:56 PM

[Jonathan Scott:]

So is any Microsoft product

Jan 28 06:04 PM

[chestnut:]

I've installed Windows 7 beta on my eeepc1000h, and am so far impressed with it (considering it is still in beta). This is coming from a Vista-hater, & long time OSX & linux user.

It is already light years ahead of the horrendous Windows Vista, which I dumped some time ago.

Jan 28 09:42 PM

[fritzair:]

I think W7 has to be. You all rejected Vista because it was too much and too soon, and too fancy like OS10. Now 7 is here and we must "belly up" because the beast is hungry. (you are the beast) Its been too long since a new OS and you are tired of Apple kicking the Sh_t out of you. Go W7.
Runs real slow on VM?

Jan 28 11:44 PM

[Mac'em X:]

@Fritzair: "You all rejected Vista because it was too much and too soon"

Huh? Of every 100 comments about Vista I've heard, about... oh, 100... have said that it was too little and too late.

Jan 29 08:59 AM

[nonbourn:]

Hard economic times call for radical changes Microsoft is unwilling to take, the reality is Microsoft is being pushed from three sides that don't derive their money from the selling of software. Those entities are Linux, Open Source, and Google and no matter how good W7 is, it will not bring Microsoft back to the grand old days of yesteryear. Linux is not supported by just one company but many corporations, developers, and communities around the world for free. It is the same for Open Source its not just for Linux but for all o/s platforms Mac and MS. The real threat for MS is Google not only is it looking to put chrome but eventually androide on all equipment manufacturers to monotize it self on the web for advertising The profit margin on these netbooks will be small because of the economic climate to cut costs. Microsoft must change in order to survive this economic implosion.

Jan 29 12:09 PM

[obvio.capit...:]

The title of the article fails to make sense because Google's Android is based on Linux. So: "Watch Out for Linux"

Jan 30 06:41 AM

[fritzair:]

Too much refers to the slowness if you install with too little memory or graphics capability.
Too little refers to the "few" devices which are supported in Vista. Does that sound familiar?


On Jan 29 08:59 AM Mac'em X wrote:

> @Fritzair: "You all rejected Vista because it was too much and too
> soon"
>
> Huh? Of every 100 comments about Vista I've heard, about... oh, 100...
> have said that it was too little and too late.

Jun 15 05:40 PM