Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (1/29/09)

Below we highlight our trading range charts of ten major commodities. For each commodity, the green shading represents between two standard deviations above and below it's 50-day moving average. Moves above or below the trading range are considered overbought or oversold.

There has been some big divergence between commodity prices in recent weeks. As shown, oil and natural gas remain at or near oversold levels, while metals and some agriculture commodities are closer to overbought levels. Natural gas is the most oversold commodity by far, and it has been trickling lower along the bottom of its trading range for months now. Odds are that it will at least make a move to the top of its downtrend channel sometime soon. Oil has been trying to break out of its downtrend recently, as it made a "higher low" on its most recent downturn.

Gold, silver, and platinum are all trading in short-term uptrends, although they look to have stalled out at the top of their trading ranges for the time being. Copper, corn, and wheat are trading in the middle of their trading ranges, while orange juice continues trending downward. And coffee has really made a nice move since bottoming late last year, and it is now trading in overbought territory.

Comments

[777:]

Oil is beginning its up trend about 30%.But the bull ETF uso is still staying at its lows, and bear ETF dto is at its high level.why ?why? Why ?
Is there something like Price control ? My answer is YES

Jan 29 08:16 PM

[777:]

Crude oil has risen from 32$ to 42$, that's 30% up altogether. But why USO still stay at the level of its lows ?I t should be around 40$.
Also DTO double bear should down 60% because of its double about 80$, but why it still stay at the high level of 180 ? If there is "severe contango " ,should exist in both of the two funds, but "severe contango " can't explain the true reason for the funds tracking the crude oil index. Only one thing is there----That's "severe manipulation "rather than " severe contango" .
The canadian EFT hou.to and hod.to are more radiculous. For crude oil has risen from 32$ to 42$, so hou.to should be at around 11$ or more
but when crude oil up 1.2% it up 1.1%, crude down 1.6,it down 4.1%,so hou.to has fallen down over 30 times from 48$, and right now it is just equal to1.525$(5:1consolidat... or 7.63$ now, but oil is just down 147/41.5=3 times.
So contango can explain nothing, Just price manipulation.
Here I believe the market should be fair, just, open to every investor,and it should have a comparatively reasonable game rules.Or the market is robbing money from investor directly. So I call for an investigation from New York stock Exchange to get rid of the clear price manipulation.
If you are interested my opinion, you can compare the 4 ETF: USO bull and DTO bear; HOU.TO bull and HOD bear which is more distinct example for price manipulation rather than so called " contango ".Let up to complain to New York stock Exchange.

Jan 29 08:20 PM

[Jingle-Jangle:]

Democrats are in charge. Expect corruption to become common place and expect to see it out in the open without any consequences.
Manipulation is the name of the game and it is done "for the good of the country".
Get used to it.
Democrat corruption makes the rich get richer and the poor get money from the taxes from the middle class.
Democrats hate the middle class. They have no need for regulation and Democrats are all about regulation (except for themselves).

Jan 30 10:13 AM

[WisdomTrader:]

Actually if you look at those charts and buy/sell the first breakout of the trading range you'll establish a trend following position and would have better opportunity capturing a profit. Buying weakness or selling strength does not work well in commodity investing.

Feb 04 11:10 AM