New iPhone App Could Boost Sirius XM's Cash

The NiceMac USirius StarPlayer application for the iPhone is generating a ton of buzz! SiriusBuzz is giving away 7 invites for the application, and with over 300 comments on the promotion, it is clear that people are clamoring for an application that marries Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) with the iPhone.

The application, developed by NiceMac, requires an existing subscription to Sirius XM Radio, and relies on the Internet feed of the service to deliver content. That Internet feed is currently free with a paid subscription, but beginning March 11th subscription pricing will change, and among those changes is the Internet feed which will cost an additional $2.99 per month on top of the $12.95 if you have an existing radio. Internet-only subscriptions are available for $12.95 per month, and do not require a radio.

So how does a third party application help Sirius? In an ironic twist, Sirius XM Radio is allowing subscribers to lock in current rates, and maintain their free Internet feed for the length of their contract. Thus, if you renew your subscription prior to March 11th, you can keep your Internet feed for the term of your renewal.

The longer two and three year plans offered by Sirius XM already build in savings, but now, with applications such as this, locking into these rates to maintain the Internet feed has even more value. The potential for Sirius XM is pretty big. If 1 million subscribers lock in by pre-paying for $349 for the three year plan, it delivers an infusion of $349 million into the coffers. Considering that over 20%, or 4 million radios, of the subscriber base is in family plans which will also see a price increase, the activity on locking in lower rates could be huge.

While the prepay aspect of this issue helps bring cash into the doors, the other potential savings comes from cutting expenses. The company subsidizes the cost of retail radios, pays marketing costs, rents shelf space, and employs a sale force. With the iPhone capable of getting Sirius XM, there are no such costs. Sirius XM literally gains an advantage on the viral aspect of the iPhone phenomenon! From a business standpoint, a subscription on a device that costs the company nothing is far superior than one that costs the company money.

Many analysts that followed the sector had all but given up on a price increase after the merger concessions were published. It was thought that any mechanism for increasing revenue and ARPU were a sacrifice to the merger, and that prices would be stagnant for three years. The company has increased prices in the two ares they could, and that will drive Q1 numbers substantially. Unfortunately, this information is lost on the street because many analysts simply are not covering the equity any more.

The take rate on locking in rates was already going to be decent. People want value. With the NiceMac’s application hitting the market, and the certainty of more in the pipeline for Blackberry and other smart devices, the value of the Internet feed will only increase.

While the numbers presented here are not enough to wipe out all of the debt, they are substantial enough to give the Sirius XM debt picture an entirely new perspective. This will make the next few months even more interesting, and will give shareholders something to look forward to in the Q1 numbers as we await the finalized data from Q4 of 2008.

Position: Long Sirius XM

Comments

[cos1000:]

killer,
The saga continues..... We are definitely getting ready to lesson our short load on this equity.... Any news of debt restructuring weakens all the talk of immediate BK. The Wall Street Journal, through what I read on Orbicast (I don't have access to Journal Articles), reported Mel in "Advanced" talks with parties to take on the 175M Feb debt. Not enough info to really sink the Dog's Teeth into, but enough to increase share transaction volume over the last couple of days..... Here's the link, and were all here standing ready for the charge and battle ahead, the nose on that Dog will give us the signal... be strong and at the ready.....

www.orbitcast.com/arch...

Feb 03 10:50 AM

[163888:]

I dont know, It might be because as you guys know as the PPS goes down they come out of the wood work. Then when it goes up they seem to disappear. I will say, I dont know if it is just me or what, but it feels like a cloud has just lifted over this company, the tide has started to turn. It also maybe because I have not had EBS in a while, LOL.

Feb 03 11:35 AM

[shure46:]

well if ya want to keep the government from "taking over" , tell all the companies NOT to take the money !!!!! Hell I didn't see GM or Goldman Saks too worried about "Marxism" when they had their hands out for some welfare .....The government is no more evil than coorporate America , and it's all run by a bunch of damn idiots or crooks or both ....Bernie Madoff should be hung from the highest tree , but instead , he is sitting in his penthouse sipping champagne ...THAT is why everything is turning to "you know what"......people with expensive lawyers get away with murder , and poor people go to prison ......If this was truly a capitalistic nation , businesses would be allowed to fail , and another would take it's place ...and failure / fraud , would not be rewarded ......Shareholders get wiped out , but CEO's get million dollar bonuses .....That's BS , and a crime as far as I'm concerned ....


On Jan 30 05:38 PM satellite radio is dead wrote:

> KMC, you are the man. You took the words right out of my mouth. If
> reading the messages posted to SIRI stories on SeekingAlpha weren't
> so hysterical, I'd have to cry for all the idiots who are holding
> this stock.
>
> And these articles by Mr. Savery multiple times/week are only written
> to refresh the depression forum for SIRI shareholders, that's why
> proof-reading for errors is really not necessary. No one with the
> mental capacity to recognize a typo is reading this stuff, anyway.
>
>
> I think Mr. Savery should step aside and allow a therapist to write
> SIRI articles every few days until the bankruptcy filing. I've got
> a great title for the first one: "SiriusXM Shareholders: The First
> Step is Admitting You Have a Problem".
>
> And for those who doubted my government buyout theory, you clearly
> don't know a thing about socialism. The FCC's Fairness Doctrine was
> implemented during the Great Depression, and we'll soon see Great
> Depression II thanks to this Marxist administration that America
> elected. Most oppressive socialist agendas become law during economic
> downturns, not times of prosperity.
>
> And do you honestly think that this $1.1 trillion "stimulus" is a
> one-tmer to the annual Federal budget? HA! Once a spending level
> is in place, it only grows further. How often does the federal budget
> shrink? So $1+ trillion is plenty of money to purchase multiple segments
> of business in the years ahead, particularly in a deflationary environment
> where asset prices fall relentlessly. This government would love
> nothing more than to take control of its own media sources, that's
> practically the norm in socialist countries. The government already
> has a stake in NBC via GE bailout money, why is this so difficult
> to comprehend?
>
> Socialism is all about owning all strategic business classes, not
> just banks!

Feb 03 11:42 AM

[shotsii:]

What the hell happened? Why did we drop from .14 to .12?

Feb 03 11:58 AM

[shotsii:]

What the hell happened? Why did we drop from .14 to .12?

Feb 03 11:58 AM

[Come on Guy...:]

shotsii,

I think its because the company that Sirius sold shares to for money to pay off the debt are selling their shares short, then covering. Just my guess??

Feb 03 01:23 PM

[Come on Guy...:]

- the share price rises a few cents.

- Investors dump their stock and cash out, making it even more worthless than it is now.

Feb 03 01:42 PM

[killerkaul:]

888s........... Tom Daschle has been dumped............. just like when we here in the Dakota's, dumped him from his Senate/Majority Leader seat in So.Dak. state.! I should have saved my DUMP DASCHLE bumper stickers. It appears that the dirty/appointees are falling like dead pigeons at a carnival shoot. LOL. Cos......... thanks for the link........... are you guys still trading siri stock .02 cents at a time in the channel ? or ....... has it gotten too risky/danger of being shut out on a quick rise/bump?

Feb 03 02:19 PM

[yomann:]

your a Dakota boy? COOOOLLLL


On Feb 03 02:19 PM killerkaul wrote:

> 888s........... Tom Daschle has been dumped............. just like
> when we here in the Dakota's, dumped him from his Senate/Majority
> Leader seat in So.Dak. state.! I should have saved my DUMP DASCHLE
> bumper stickers. It appears that the dirty/appointees are falling
> like dead pigeons at a carnival shoot. LOL. Cos......... thanks for
> the link........... are you guys still trading siri stock .02 cents
> at a time in the channel ? or ....... has it gotten too risky/danger
> of being shut out on a quick rise/bump?

Feb 03 02:42 PM

[163888:]

killerkaul, The thing I find most interesting is Obamas response of regret. What happen to being the president of change and cleaning up Washington. I guess that did not last to long. He is in big trouble come next election, People elected him expecting change, even the New York Times is getting on him and his selections. I even see some senate democrats are pissing and moaning about his bill saying it will not do anything in the near term and what do they want, MORE TAX CUTS, isn't that amazing.

Also I never did trading like that, maybe I should have but I just kept buying as it went down and If I had extra dividend money. My last buy was at .115, unbelievable as it sounds it finally went up after I bought. Thats what I get for buying more of this crap when I said I wasn't going to. I said that so many times on this piece of crap it is making me sick. I wish I didn't see such a great outcome for this company.



cos1000, by the way happy belated birthday D, Man are you old..............Quit laughing killerkaul you are older then he is, LOL.

Feb 03 03:07 PM

[163888:]

Disclaimer, I ment I never traded like that when it got this low.

Feb 03 03:15 PM

[mogami_99:]

Hi Buddy I am in the same boat. I have made 19 buys of SIRI on the way down from .60 7 of them are now in the Black. .1584 is my median price. I have 8 between .145 and .17
If SP can hang on tomorrow I'll start getting excited.
Liked how it pushed to .14 at close


On Feb 03 03:15 PM 163888 wrote:

> Disclaimer, I ment I never traded like that when it got this low.

Feb 03 04:08 PM

[cos1000:]

Killer,

I had been trading when the was above higher. I sold all my shares at .24 and bought back in at an average of .1512. I did sell them all and buy back lower a couple of times in last few months. I now have a little over 72K shares. I need to get to a 1.53 to break even from my initial investment. That's not bad considering in Sept 08 I was at an average of 2.45 at the time of the merger. I wouldn't sell now until all is known and the stock makes a decent correction. As you say, it has gotten to risky right now. After the correction, I might go back to trading 15-18K shares in newly formed channels with tight stops. Oh by the way, smart move Daschle removing himself from consideration, with all his health care lobbying over the last few years, tax issues would be least of his problems coming up in the confirmation hearings. Tough to find a good man or woman these days if they have a history in Washington.

888's, Why thank ya son..... Old is just a state of mind.......... (I find myself saying that a lot) .... and getting older is better than the alternative.... LOL

Feb 03 04:09 PM

[killerkaul:]

cos1000.................. amen........ bro .........amen.

Feb 03 04:42 PM

[relmor:]

Its all a circus show...There was a reason they choose him, and a reason he wont be serving...I suspect it was to show the country that Obama has checks and balances..See, he isnt a dictator...If anyone in this country is stupid enough to think that this information was "discovered" by responsible media personell, that triggered an embarrassing media episode that caused him to withdrawn his name should buy some swap land in Florida I have for sale. Last great men to run for president were
Gary Hart(destroyed for voicing against central banks/FED/ and CFR), Ron Paul(never taken seriously by the media), Ross Perot(only allowed to bellow so Clinton could win), and Ralph Nader(too nice, media wont even cover him, no chance)..
And we choose to follow the media and go with Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, and now the Obama...Lets see how the medias track record is working out for everyone...
Republican and Democrat oligrachy rules this country, and you are all a bunch of sheeple to even debate issues...You dont deserve the right to debate issues if you only vote for one of two parties that have obviously been slowly ruining out country...How dumb do we have to be to keep electing puppets of the banks...You will never get an ounce of legitamite government concern, help , or real effort to do what they were enacted to do if a democrat, republican, or any candiate that is endorsed by the main media...Never, never never...Never...

Feb 03 06:46 PM

[relmor:]

Yes, I have no doubt the government would love to run these satellites, and will probably be the running them for the banks soon...But in the mean time, Id like a little short squeeze here, some profits, and then Im hiding in gold to save myself from Obama destroying the dollar...Already in most money, just need this last spec money pulled and Im out of this circus show you call a market...You can have it...
Call me when gold is 4000 an ounce, the DOW is around 5000, Maybe then Ill buy the DOW back...But only short term, as they will rob you eventually all over again...
I wonder how many Ameros I will be able to get for an ounce of gold?

Feb 03 06:51 PM

[relmor:]

Two ways to reinflate the economy...
1. You can give it to banks to loan it out...
2. You can give it to consumers in the form of tax cuts, and rebates...Incentive programs...etc...

Why do we choose #1? Why cant JP Morgan go out of business? Just create a new bank called JP Morgan II, cancel all debts due to JP Morgan(yes, that means a ton of free stuff)..and open a new bank...
Why? Because then the gigs up, people will realize money is a joke, and we are being controlled by banks...
Doing it this way ensures peoples thinking that that way would never work...You cant just give things away...Yes we can, and we do every day, just not to us...the sheeple...DOnt be insulted when I call you a sheeple...
Hes some more sheeple..
Michael Jordan...
Tiger Woods..
Tom Brady..
95 percent of elected officials
99-100 percent of all millionaires and billionaires...
To be a sheeple doesnt mean your poor, it just means you dont know who your masters are...Its people who think they actually have freedoms and choices..Really? Try sueing the IRS over illegal taxation? Try suing the federal government for breaching laws that state federal law can NEVER override a state law(Federal Laws were only originated to cover gaps, trade, and things to keep things following intrastate...Never could the government tell a state what to do within there borders..They broke that repeatedly, and non stop almost from day 1...
If the constution demands that real money only be coined by government mints in the forms of silver and gold, and all real money should be backed by gold, why dont we? cause of the banks...See, you cant have trillionaries and thousands of billionaires if they have to pay out gold to workers for pay...Also cant wage wars either...If Obama was a good man and president, he would abolish the FED, cut government spending in half, recall 30-40 percent of our military, and remove bank interests from all commodities markets..(Prices for commoditites would be determined by one buyer to one seller...Corporation to corporation...Governme... to government..Not from London and NY computers sitting on thousands of contracts over what is possible to deliver, timing attacks and raids as they see fit, and pricing goods at exactly were the banks want them priced...See, Obama isnt a good man, or he would have already done one of these things..O and abolish fractional banking immeditetly...
World goes into a great depression, we come out of it smelling like a rose..

Feb 03 07:04 PM

[sl62:]

Killer K...

Sorry got a little busy on another project. But I agree with other posts about SEC issues if insiders were buying here. I suspect they will start buying more shares once the SP corrrects. It would just look way too shady if stock drops to .10, homers pile in, stock corrects on debt news. After debt news, insiders WILL add to positions, existing options IMHO. This will add to the hype and cause SP to go even higher. That's why I see a return back to the revalue number (1.50) next few months for sure. Hang in there. WSJ news is no surprise. That was one of the bullets in the meeting PPT...(new investors). SIRI has some great cards in hand right now because their metrics rock.

163888...I couldn't agree more about the turn. It's real and happening. WS24/7 Doug M is in therapy right now because SIRI buried a boot in his sphinctor and he has to figure out extraction methods. Rick A at The Fool suddenly is presenting FACTS (Whaaaaat?) and not bandwagon rubbish. Suddenly, there is a way when before there was no way. Looks like we've finally hit the leading edge of critical mass.

cos1000...

What's this, a birthday? Happy days my friend...

Closed at the highs today. Suddenly we're looking at a .04 move. As said before, this thing will move and be gone before anyone realizes it. The countdown continues.

Oh, mogami_99...

You wrote that no one was shorting the stock anymore. Check out the Jan A SI...

Feb 03 08:08 PM

[sl62:]

relmor....

Keep the posts coming...you and me both = ready for a short squeeze! After I get back the money I loaned to SIRI (and one other stock I'm still waiting to correct lol), I will forget the meaning of "long-term" trades forever. Big lessons learned last 4 months. DOW 5000...no problem. I'll still be making money then and all the way down. In and out, in and out...just like a good lay lol....

Feb 03 08:15 PM

[koop127981:]

relmore,
Great rant....couldn't agree with you more....US is heading down the sewer...Costa rica is a beautiful place...internet there works so you can scalp what's left of the market in the future and live like a king!
Koop


On Feb 03 07:04 PM relmor wrote:

> Two ways to reinflate the economy...
> 1. You can give it to banks to loan it out...
> 2. You can give it to consumers in the form of tax cuts, and rebates...Incentive
> programs...etc...
>
> Why do we choose #1? Why cant JP Morgan go out of business? Just
> create a new bank called JP Morgan II, cancel all debts due to JP
> Morgan(yes, that means a ton of free stuff)..and open a new bank...

>
> Why? Because then the gigs up, people will realize money is a joke,
> and we are being controlled by banks...
> Doing it this way ensures peoples thinking that that way would never
> work...You cant just give things away...Yes we can, and we do every
> day, just not to us...the sheeple...DOnt be insulted when I call
> you a sheeple...
> Hes some more sheeple..
> Michael Jordan...
> Tiger Woods..
> Tom Brady..
> 95 percent of elected officials
> 99-100 percent of all millionaires and billionaires...
> To be a sheeple doesnt mean your poor, it just means you dont know
> who your masters are...Its people who think they actually have freedoms
> and choices..Really? Try sueing the IRS over illegal taxation?
> Try suing the federal government for breaching laws that state federal
> law can NEVER override a state law(Federal Laws were only originated
> to cover gaps, trade, and things to keep things following intrastate...Never
> could the government tell a state what to do within there borders..They
> broke that repeatedly, and non stop almost from day 1...
> If the constution demands that real money only be coined by government
> mints in the forms of silver and gold, and all real money should
> be backed by gold, why dont we? cause of the banks...See, you cant
> have trillionaries and thousands of billionaires if they have to
> pay out gold to workers for pay...Also cant wage wars either...If
> Obama was a good man and president, he would abolish the FED, cut
> government spending in half, recall 30-40 percent of our military,
> and remove bank interests from all commodities markets..(Prices for
> commoditites would be determined by one buyer to one seller...Corporation
> to corporation...Governme... to government..Not from London and NY
> computers sitting on thousands of contracts over what is possible
> to deliver, timing attacks and raids as they see fit, and pricing
> goods at exactly were the banks want them priced...See, Obama isnt
> a good man, or he would have already done one of these things..O
> and abolish fractional banking immeditetly...
> World goes into a great depression, we come out of it smelling like
> a rose..

Feb 03 09:15 PM