Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) is due with its Q1 results after the close tonight, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.03 per share on revenue of $1.55 billion.
AMAT has a tendency to reverse its after-hours movement the next day following an evening earnings event. It has done so after 21 of the last 35 earnings events.
Looking deeper into the performance data, AMAT has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 17 of the 35 quarters we've tracked, and in 12 of those events, 71% of the time, the stock has reversed or narrowed its evening gain in the following day's regular session. On the downside, AMAT has recorded an after-hours decline in 18 of the 35 quarters we've tracked, cutting back or reversing its decline nine times, 50% of the time.
On Nov. 15, 2012, AMAT advanced 1.8% in after-hours trade after topping Q4 estimates, but also setting its Q1 earnings outlook below the Street view. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Nov. 16 regular session off 1.4%.
On Aug. 15, 2012, AMAT declined 2.8% in evening trade after beating on Q4 earnings but posting a weak outlook. The stock reversed direction the next day, ending the Aug. 16 regular session up 1.5%.
On May 17, 2012, AMAT dipped 0.7% in evening trade after beating on Q2 and guiding to the high end of its outlook. The stock added modestly to its downside the next day, closing the May 18 regular session down 1.1%.
On Feb. 16, 2012, AMAT advanced 4.7% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 expectations. The stock reversed direction the next day and closed the Feb. 17 regular session down 1.6%.
On Nov. 16, 2011, AMAT declined 2.5% in after-hours action despite beating Q4 expectations. The stock moved deeper in the red the next day, closing the Nov. 17 regular session down 7.5%.
On Aug. 24, 2011, AMAT declined 4.2% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 estimates and calling for a sharp sequential drop in its Q4 sales. The stock added slightly to its downside the next day, closing the Aug. 25 regular session down 4.8%.
On May 24, 2011, AMAT declined 2% in night trade despite topping Q2 expectations. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the May 25 regular session up 1%.
On Feb. 24, 2011, AMAT gained 0.3% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 estimates. The stock added to its upside the following day, rising 1.8% by the close on Feb. 25.
On Nov. 17, 2010, AMAT edged down 0.1% in evening trade after beating Q4 estimates and setting its Q1 outlook in line with expectations. The stock reversed into the green the following day, closing the Nov. 18 regular session up 2.1%.
On August 18, 2010, the stock edged up 0.3% as the company moved into profit but missed the Street view. Shares slipped 0.1% the next day.
On May 19, 2010, AMAT ended down 0.2% in after-hours activity after the company just beat Q2 EPS estimates. Shares declined further the following day, ending the regular session down 2.5%.
On Feb. 17, 2010, the stock gained 0.8% after an EPS meet, sales beat and raised sales outlook. The stock fell 2.4% the next day.
On Nov. 11, 2009, AMAT gained 0.6% in evening trade after beating Q4 estimates. The stock lost its upside the following day, closing the Nov. 12 regular session down 3.2%.
On Aug. 11, 2009, AMAT advanced 3.1% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and issuing strong Q4 guidance. The stock added to its upside the next day, ending the Aug. 12 regular session up 3.3%.
On May 12, 2009, AMAT declined 2.2% in after-hours trade after beating sales expectations, meeting loss estimates, and issuing mixed guidance. The stock added to its downside the next day, dropping 4.2% in the May 13 regular session.
On Feb. 10, 2009, AMAT declined 2.3% in after-hours trade after meeting quarterly expectations and guiding for a quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue. The stock recorded a sharp reversal the next day, ending the Feb. 11 regular session up 0.8%.
On Nov. 12, 2008, AMAT declined 1.4% in after-hours action after beating Q4 expectations but also setting its guidance below Street estimates. It turned to the plus-side the next day, advancing 14.2% by the closing bell on Nov. 13.
On Aug. 12, 2008, AMAT advanced 4.4% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 expectations. It edged just higher the following day, ending the Aug. 13 regular session up 4.6%.
On May 13, 2008, the stock gained 1.4% during evening trading after beating with Q2 results but guiding for a drop in Q3 orders. The gain was trimmed to 0.2% the next day.
On Feb. 12, 2008, the stock gained 4.4% during evening trading after a Q1 beat and largely upbeat guidance. The stock jumped 10.1% the next day.
On Nov. 14, 2007, AMAT declined 4.8% in after-hours trade after beating earnings expectations but also setting guidance below the then-current Street view. The downside was reversed in the Nov. 15 regular session, with AMAT ending the day up 0.3%.
On Aug 14, 2007, AMAT slipped 3.2% in after hours despite beating Q3 estimates. It also issued Q4 guidance. Shares eased further the next day, closing down 4.1% in the regular session.
On May 15, 2007, AMAT dropped 3.9% in night trade after topping Q2 estimates but predicting Q3 orders to drop 10-15%. Shares recovered slightly the next day, ending the regular session down 3%.
On Feb. 13, 2007, shares were up 4.3% in the evening hours after the company beat with EPS though missed with sales. The gain was pared to 3.8% the next day.
On Nov. 15, 2006, the stock fell 1.4% in the evening session as disappointing guidance trumped earnings that beat. The loss deepened to 3.5% by the close of trading the next day.
On August 15, 2006, AMAT edged up 1.3% in evening trade after topping Q3 expectations. The shares, though, couldn't hold onto gains and closed the next day session up only 0.1%.
On May 16, 2006, AMAT shed 3.3% in after hours when the company topped Q2 estimates and guided for Q3 above Street views. The shares fell further the next day, closing the regular session down 5.1%.
On February 15, 2006, AMAT edged up 2.6% in night trade after beating Q1 expectations. However, the shares lost their steam the next day and ended the regular session down 2.4%.
On November 16, 2005, AMAT edged down 2.9% in evening trade despite beating Q4 estimates. The company had given in a conference call Q1 earnings guidance that sandwiched the FC mean. Shares trimmed their losses the next day, ending the regular session down 2.4%.
AMAT gained 3.7% on the night of Aug. 16, 2005, after reporting a decline in Q3 results, compared with the same quarter in the previous year. It widened that move in the Aug. 17 regular session, climbing 6.1%.
On May 17, 2005, AMAT slipped 2.4% in after-hours trading despite topping Q2 Street targets. It narrowed that action in the May 18 regular session, edging down only 0.6%.
AMAT added 1.5% the night of Feb. 15, 2005 after the company beat on revenue and came in a penny ahead on EPS. The stock saw much of that modest upside trimmed on Feb. 16 as AMAT closed the day's bell-to-bell play up a mere 0.06%.
AMAT slid 3.5% in the Nov. 17, 2004 after-hours session after the company beat estimates, but set its outlook below the Street view. AMAT cut its downside in next-day trade, and ultimately ended the Nov. 18 bell-to-bell session up 1.8%.
On Aug. 17, 2004 AMAT added 0.6% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations but set its EPS guidance range below the Street view. It reduced its upside modestly the next day, closing the regular session up 0.5%.
Following its May 18, 2004 earnings report, AMAT closed the after-hours with a fractional decline, and ended the next day down 1.1%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.