Sirius Can Expect Good Q4 but Debt's Still an Issue - RBC 55 comments
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After a long dry spell of analyst reports on Sirius XM Radio (SIRI), RBC Capital’s David Bank has come out with an opinion on Q4. The firm sees a good Q4 given low expectations, but also notes the issues such as debt, car sales, and a potential reverse split weighing on the stock.
The report sees a good Q4 considering that in late November 2008, Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin stated that 4Q revenues should grow at a double-digit rate. The firm notes that this would put the company’s performance above guidance of $2.7bn. RBC notes a late December FY2008 adjusted-EBITDA guidance by the company which called for a narrower loss of $200mm. These factors lead RBC to believe that the company will meet or beat guidance.
However, RBC also notes the uncertainty concerning the refinancing of debt due this year as well as soft consumer landscape at both retail and the auto channels. In Bank’s opinion these factors will continue to weigh on the stock in 2009. All told, RBC is on the sidelines, and maintaining a Sector Perform rating.
On the potential reverse stock split, RBC sees that such an event is likely to happen. They note management's position that the only reason for a reverse stock split would be to comply with NASDAQ listing requirements of a minimum $1 share price. By RBC’s estimation, the Board of Directors will be left with few other options but to enact a reverse stock split even if Sirius is able to successfully refinance all its 2009 debt maturities within the next few months.
All in all, the RBC report offered no real surprises either to the up-side or downside. Challenges still exist, and the most notable aspect of the report is their position on the reverse split.
Position - Long Sirius XM Radio
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I was wrong.
They call each other the same names
Post the same hype about future price increase
Post the same negative about future price declines
Have the same type of flame wars
So my deduction is
"It is not the stock that counts the internet simply attracts morons where ever they are allowed to post"
Message boards offer sometimes useful information, but it can take hours grinding it out...Ive learned more about certain aspects of BK from bashers actually on yahoo message board I was not aware of...But like I said, its rare to find useful information on a message board...Youve heard the best arguements against SIrius on this forum, and weve heard the best reasons pro Sirius on this forum...We actually have it covered...
BUY BUY BUY>.......There...... hope it works!!!!
There is no reason since on the internet there will be prolific posters on either side of any subject that might come up. I have moderated a forum for some time and no matter what one poster might say it does not take long before another disputes it.
People lurk on internet forums simply for the conflict they can provoke.
If I was "pumping" the stock there would be people who have no interest at all in the stock attacking me. If I was "bashing" the stock people who have never owned it and never will would be here advocating it. Their purpose is the conflict.
I do not quite understand what satisfaction this provides but I have been online long enough to know it's there.
The internet reality is SPAM, and Flame War in massive amounts with polite exchange of data or conversation being the exception.
On Feb 04 06:39 PM relmor wrote:
> You have to understand the purpose of those message boards...They
> are for pumpers and bashers(everyone who posts owns stock or is shorting
> it)...Or they are paid to bash or support it(I have my theories on
> this....)
> Message boards offer sometimes useful information, but it can take
> hours grinding it out...Ive learned more about certain aspects of
> BK from bashers actually on yahoo message board I was not aware of...But
> like I said, its rare to find useful information on a message board...Youve
> heard the best arguements against SIrius on this forum, and weve
> heard the best reasons pro Sirius on this forum...We actually have
> it covered...
But not to depress anybody lol...
Back to SIRI...the king of all engines that could! I'm digging it. I love this story. SIRI left for dead then shoving a nice steel-toed boot right up the arse of all disbelievers--sinking that thing in nice and deep...
Now, you KNOW the tide has turned when The Fool is boning their reader fatihful up on what a short squeeze is! LOL
Don't call it a comeback
I been here for years
Rockin' my peers
Puttin' suckers in fear
Makin' the tears rain down like a monsoon
Listen to the bass go boom
Explosion, overpowerin'
Over the competition, I'm towerin'
Records shock
When I drop these lyrics
That'll make you call the cops
Don't you dare stare
You betta move
Don't ever compare me to the rest
They'll all get sliced and diced
Competition's payin' the price
I'm gonna knock you out
Mama said knock you out...
How do you like me now?...
Everybody wants a bailout...Well well if you bail out everyone, then you bail out NO ONE!!!. God bless us all, even you Im Not Jim Cramer...I know your just shorting this stock, and trying to make a buck like everyone else..I just hope your dont lose too much money when this thing reverses...Have fun with that short squeeze...We will be over .20 cents soon...
Being a "powerhouse in radio" is like being the country's leading carriage maker in 1908. Radio is a dying entertainment delivery system, on satellite no less than terrestrial Do you think it's an accident that you can buy stock in any radio company in America, including sirius, for less than a hamburger at McDonald's? Haven't you seen that some new car makers are already adding Wi-fi technology? Remember when "everybody" was supposed to buy a CB in the 70's because that was a hot communnications medium. How much longer will stores devote huge amounts of floor space to CD's when most music is being moved digitally? Think this is a good time to be a powerhouse in CD's?
Go Sirius. Get back to .55 so I can break even and get the hell out. How's that for optimism? lol
Peak oil is a perfect example of how very experienced and knowledgeable people can be myopic in their view. Daniel Yergin and Bill Simmons are extremely persuasive in their books, but they are ultimately wrong. Oil is universal because it is the most cost effective energy usage, not the most efficient. Cost is a moving target, and as we have seen, the world is awash in oil at $60-$100 a barrel, but at $30-$40 they're almost like dairy farmers pouring their milk into the ground and selling their cows because they can't make the profit they want. We will never run out of oil, but ultimately some other energy system will exceed oil in it's cost effectiveness and render it a niche product.
Just posted on yahoo..Echostar accumulating Sirius convertibles due in Feb. I would post the link, but severly computer challenged. Take a look and tell what you think. Thanks
If you think sirius is immune, you're wrong. We have 5 years, MAYBE. If anything, a terrible economy acclerates the transition of all entertainment content to the internet, because consumers will give up everything else, but they will never give up the internet.
Today, and I mean TODAY, every movie is on the internet the day it is released into the theaters. Sure the quality is not good, not good enough to use your sling box to move it to your big screen, but the marginal movies, the crappy ones that you use to keep your kids occupied, will not continue to draw your $6-$7 a kid to see them in the theaters. There is no line at my local Blockbuster, the closest of which literally just went out of business, but the Red Box at my grocery store always has somebody in front of it for a $1 rental. The movie chains are pumping a ton of movie into various 3-D formats because they know that the non-dating public will not continue to pay $10 a piece for the same experience they can get on their big screen at home.
The internet, much like the Borg, devours all, sometimes slowly, but inexorably.
On Feb 05 01:10 AM I'm not Jim Cramer wrote:
> still sirius: you didn't ask me (lol) but here's my take. why would
> a satellite company buy the debt of another satelllite company? Because
> they need more satellites? I don't think so! Probably because they
> realize that content is king. If they can jettison Sirius debt in
> bankrutpcy, or kill some major capital costs by gradually replacing
> sirius satelite transmission and personnel costs by piggybacking
> on their own satellites, but keep the contracts with the major revenue
> sources, wouldn't this be a coup for them?
still sirus, It scares me more then all the talk of bankruptcy. As I have said before many times, this is the type of thing that you could be worried about not bankruptcy. I also as "killerkaul" can confirm said a long long time ago, that if their was anyone that would be interested in bying SIRI it would be Directv, or DISH, not Apple or MSFT, or Google as almost everyone else was talking about. The synergies made more sense to me, with DTV or DISH then with the others (remember when you asked me about that killerkaul). I hope something like that does not happen. I have been waiting for to long to be shafted at this point. I have already said many times about how big that spectrum is and what that amount of spectrum is capable of. I dont want one or two dollars a share now, I want another DISH (a stock that split 3 times and went over 80) to happen at a later date. I hope that it is something different then what they are saying it maybe.