Could It Finally Be Time to Buy Sirius XM Stock? 202 comments
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Even I must admit, that buying Sirius XM (SIRI) common stock at this time is a crap-shoot, or borrowing a term from our old pal Jim Cramer, akin to buying a lottery ticket. There is a case to be made for such a purchase however, if you are like myself and have lost nearly your entire investment in the stock.
Let’s assume that you purchased 1000 shares of Sirius XM stock at 3.00. Your $3,000 investment has declined in value to a mere $140.00! If you were to dollar cost average now, and purchase an additional 1,000 shares, you would be putting at risk only an additional $140.00. This means of course that the stock would only have to rise to $1.50 for such an investor to break even on his/her investment. With such a minimal amount of additional risk, it would be at the very least prudent to consult with a financial advisor regarding such a strategy.
There are also several points of interest that give this plan a higher probability of a successful outcome. There have already been reports that Sirius XM is in the final stages of debt renegotiations with their lenders.
Certain naysayers have forgotten that Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin has stated publicly on more than one occasion that the company has been looking to retire all of its 2009 debt obligations in one fell swoop rather than in pieces. These naysayers have already begun to make reference to the company’s May 2009 debt obligation, and just may be in for a real shocker if the company announces with the February debt retirement that they have successfully completed that issue as well.
To top it all off, Sirius XM stock has been trading up, despite the absolutely abysmal OEM numbers reported on Tuesday by the automakers. It is clear to me that Sirius XM management made the right decision months ago to begin up-selling its service to its already existing 20 million subscriber base, rather than depend on new subscriptions from the OEM sector. This should translate into increased revenue on lowered costs for the yet to be reported fourth quarter, and that revenue may bring with it a fourth quarter upside earnings surprise. Also of significance, are the facts that the Senate approved a tax break for new car purchases which will help Sirius XM as much as the auto manufacturers and for my fellow technical analysts, that SIRI closed above its 50 day moving average for the first time in over 6 months Tuesday as well.
Position: Long Sirius XM
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This article has 202 comments:
I'm hoping Charlie pulls the chair right out from under Mel.
Many of us still remember Mel's terrestrial past.
Who better to run a satellite company than somebody like Charlie Ergen that understands it?
If you thumbs down this post..... you are just a Mel-suckass.
If you thumbs up this post..... then you really do care about Sirius XM..... and your investment.
The part that concerns me is the possible purchase of May bank debt as alluded to in WSJ article. I know that they were just speculating on that one, but if true, could be big problem. If Mel uses 1/2 COH for Feb debt, then possible not enough COH if ECHO has accumulated significant portion of May debt and will not renegotiate!
NEW YORK, ENGLEWOOD, COLORADO and FORT WORTH, TEXAS -- February 12, 2004 – RadioShack Corporation (NYSE: RSH), EchoStar Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: DISH) and SIRIUS Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) today announced the formation of a satellite entertainment alliance that positions EchoStar’s DISH Network and SIRIUS as the only satellite entertainment brands offered at RadioShack. DISH Network also announced it will make SIRIUS music programming available to the majority of its 9-million customers.
You can read the whole thing here if you like:
investor.sirius.com/re...
Oh, and I really could care less how you rate this post.
some of you have hit a double . congrats.
beware of a morning pull back
Just noting what was said in WSJ article. something about bank debt traded thinly on OTC. I honestly do not know enough about bank debt/bonds. Thats why I try to glean information for the knowledgable posters. thanks for your input
www.marketwatch.com/ne...={6DA577E6-58A8-4AE2-B...
888's,
I agree with you that the May debt is not bond debt so it doesn't make any sense. The Dec 09 Bonds would be where you would go to force some type of refi or payment crisis, but if this were Hostile, then that would be taking a big risk, given that by then the Feb and May debt would already be taken care of. Common sense would say that this is a Friend and business partner not a hostile bid. Plus EchoStar has its own problems to weather, even though their debt is not that high, cash is still in limited supply, in a declining subscriber market for them.
They sent me an e-mail and a letter giving me the opportunity to reset my subs, 4 of them. I reset three for 2 years and one is still good for a year. I will probably change that radio when it expires to a newer version. I get free internet on all of them until expiration. I though it was good that they sent the notice to me a month before one of them expired, so I could avoid the price increases, while they got additional cash for all three subs.
If Mel "pays it off", Charlie gets $1.00. If not, he is in control.
Make sense?
On Feb 05 08:51 AM 163888 wrote:
> So How would that makes any sense for Charlie
> to buy debt Mel could pay off if needed, then try to start all over
> again with the Dec. debt. I am sorry that just dont make sense to
> me.
I would not sell here... premarket at .24 would have been great... it always overshoots.... with this little amount of factual news the stock is jumping all over the place. I am holding here. You could play with sum and try to accumulate shares. I don't have any actionable information to make a informed decision here. It's all speculation. I'm in till it makes good sense to take ... some... out.
jswede,
I have heard from someone trying to buy some of that Dec 09 debt that it is very thinly traded, if at all at certain times. Wouldn't it also make sense that if the word out there is that someone is trying to accumulate this debt that it would appreciate quickly as demand for the issues grew?
ok - they bought Feb at $85. and they get PAR back. That's a 212% yield for 1 month.
get it now?
I pointed out the Dec to give some reference to the shape of the curve - (and I'm sure they are involved there as well).
On Feb 05 09:47 AM 163888 wrote:
> jswede, no because the WSJ said they are buying Feb. not Dec., nut
> job. As I said before if it were Dec. That would be something to
> worry about.
good luck my friend and happy hunting..... it really depends if the Street sees this as a serious of Good News events or not. As you say, Level II shows them trying to get control, but to many investors who got in a .10-.12 , are taking profits, and if the price holds at .18 they won't want to miss the next news cycle, the shorts are trying to get out (some of them) in an orderly fashion. The rush to take a small profit because of the lack of confidence in SP are having the small investor panic out of the equity, but they will quickly get back in sending another wave of buying. In my thinking this is a start of a good news cycle, removing BK, and getting debt resolved.... The news on this was out in the early am, with the WSJ, no time to digest before pre market, that's why it overshoots. Today will be important to see how much buying on this Rumor there will be, and whether or not it will hold....
This is really a no news story, Rumor has everyone in panic mode. If this is as we have said, the beginning of some good news, then the SP will take care of itself. Everyone forgets the mountain of negative press and realities that this company's stock price has had to endure. BK, Auto Industry, Annual Meeting and Proxy, and all of the metric concerns regarding COH, churn, sac, and arpu. If this is what a rumor of an investor / business partner assisting with some debt, maybe, some time...... Remove that downward negative pressure, and it will quickly go up.
30 $1mil or larger trades in the $400mil maturity of the 12/1/09 10% converts in the last month. That's decent institutional volume for that size issue. Yes, likely very "thinly traded" to retail, but I do see a few.
$1mil or larger trades are listed as "$1mil+" -- they could be $2, $5, $20, $30mil+ in size -- no way of telling, but pretty safe to say most of those trades are by institutions. One or more of them by Echostar.
The price was driven up -- from $.30 start of the month, to just over $.41 mid-to-late Jan, backing off to the most recent at $.38 yesterday. Will be interesting to see where it trades today.
I get this from Bloomberg, but I believe the same info is available on a delay at investinginbonds.com (killer site for education and price posting in bonds) --- CUSIP is 983759AC5.
On Feb 05 09:50 AM cos1000 wrote:
> jswede,
>
> I have heard from someone trying to buy some of that Dec 09 debt
> that it is very thinly traded, if at all at certain times. Wouldn't
> it also make sense that if the word out there is that someone is
> trying to accumulate this debt that it would appreciate quickly as
> demand for the issues grew?
I just feel like this is the play that gives Mel a chance to step out and save some face. The leverage Charlie will have, regardless of Dec or Jan debt, is the 800 lb gorilla in the room.
I bought 12000 shares at .15.
how long should I hold?
Thanks
You can trade bank debt. See www.lsta.org/
Thanks for the link. I haven't done bond trading, but with the general market being what it is and likely to become by summer, the educational component, cusip #, and a good place to find the numbers will be helpful. I'll let you guys get back to your debate........
Also because this giant power play really draws a line between who is interested in their money....... and who is interested in Mel. And you got to ask yourself..... do you really think Mel gives a damn about YOU?
The problem is just undercapitalization and overspending on big names, not the product itself, in my view. I had a rental car (a Hyundai Sonata, and their XM and speakers are awesome) that made me a believer in XM, particularly The Village station, which was crystal clear and the choices and commentating were superb. So I think if the company survives financially, in the long run its monopoly will be successful, but DYODD.
siriusbuzz.com/forum/s...
I sold approx 1/3 (getting money I never intended on putting in back out) Now I am sitting on shares I bought at .13 and under. So as long as we end up over yesterday I am safe (coward)
Sirius Long Hauler, They bought Feb. Converts, how much is still at question. it is at most 174 million, because that is all that is left.
Here's the link to typing.com......... stop that hunt and peck style of typing........ you too can be a speed typist...... for only 19.95 I'll send you my disk....... try my product, ......you'll be glad you did......LOL (i made up the link, I checked it and its real)
Now while I am not even close to as old as you are, this old dog cant be tought anymore new tricks, so I'll just keep pecking away ......................... I thought you would like that
On Feb 05 11:06 AM learn to think wrote:
> Cos, I think that is a good sign that they are trying to raise cash
> to take care of debt.
What are ramifications of my rebuying when SP settles back down. I understand I lose the tax write off on the shares I sold at a loss today.
I sold 12k shares but if price goes back to yesterdays close I could rebuy 15.5k
On Feb 05 11:25 AM relmor wrote:
> Yep,there goes .17...Fill order in now at .16, 1/4 position...
I only watch level II. The trading is much less frantic now and if I had to say where we would settle today it will be around .18-.19.
Neal,
you can tell from the discussion on that thread that the article painted a very grim picture. The stock trades up, because the street reads between the lines. Even if their is debt being bought as reported, why is that bad unless its hostile. Echostar does not have that kind of relationship with Sirius Xm and they just don't have that kink of COH. The more talk of debt being taken care of the less like there will be opportunity at .12-.14 (priced for disaster) to make money shorting the stock. So they need to get out and their are plenty of willing sellers in this equity. That's why its not a squeeze but and orderly march upward as more buyers and holders come into the market. I always look at the volume to confirm short selling activity. Today we are already over 100M shares for the day.
The buyers were showing they were confident that they would be paid on time.
You can sell any blocks you want..If your a day trader, you sell shares bought most recently, otherwise its first bought, first sold...It will sell your oldeest shares first, but you cant set this up anyway you want, or choose which lots to sell...
I agree Cos1000, i think i messed up...going to take the .17 cents if offered...
Today is first day ever where my position in SIRI is worth more then I paid for it.
On Feb 05 11:52 AM cos1000 wrote:
> relmor,
> I only watch level II. The trading is much less frantic now and if
> I had to say where we would settle today it will be around .18-.19.
>
>
> Neal,
> you can tell from the discussion on that thread that the article
> painted a very grim picture. The stock trades up, because the street
> reads between the lines. Even if their is debt being bought as reported,
> why is that bad unless its hostile. Echostar does not have that kind
> of relationship with Sirius Xm and they just don't have that kink
> of COH. The more talk of debt being taken care of the less like there
> will be opportunity at .12-.14 (priced for disaster) to make money
> shorting the stock. So they need to get out and their are plenty
> of willing sellers in this equity. That's why its not a squeeze but
> and orderly march upward as more buyers and holders come into the
> market. I always look at the volume to confirm short selling activity.
> Today we are already over 100M shares for the day.
On Feb 05 11:57 AM relmor wrote:
> Mogami...
> You can sell any blocks you want..If your a day trader, you sell
> shares bought most recently, otherwise its first bought, first sold...It
> will sell your oldeest shares first, but you cant set this up anyway
> you want, or choose which lots to sell...
> I agree Cos1000, i think i messed up...going to take the .17 cents
> if offered...
On Feb 05 11:46 AM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, It is my understanding that when you sell shares you always sell
> the ones you bought first. (you can't sell ones you bought at .11
> if you hold ones bought prior at .20 for example)
Thanks for the tip. I was in a holding pattern till today. I am averaged to .26 cents....and will definitely take it down further before it climbs above that number. Today is a confirmation of my confidence !
With its stock trading under $1.5 on many days, Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) shareholders don't have much hope to make money. But, whatever hope is left may be about to go away.
EchoStar (NASDAQ: DISH) is buying up the maturing debt of Sirius, and probably getting a good deal on the distressed paper. According to The Wall Street Journal, "EchoStar, has recently acquired part of a $300 million tranche of Sirius debt that matures on Feb. 17."
DISH may continue to buy SIRI debt and use the move as a takeover method. It is not clear why the money-losing satellite radio company has a suitor, but that may beside the point.
Buying debt is a novel way to get around shareholder approval of a acquisition and may even take the SIRI board out of the picture. Once the debt is due and SIRI is in default the firm does not have a lot of options.
Sirius stock has been heading toward zero. It may get there in the next few weeks.
www.bloggingstocks.com.../
Don't let the door hit ya, Mel. Beat it.
This saves them a ton of dilution....
Is it their last attempt to scare us and take our shares cheap?
On Feb 05 12:17 PM Marcap wrote:
> Not necessarily! While FIFO (First In First Out) is certainly the
> primarily method used for valuing inventory, shares, etc. especially
> for tax purposes, it is not the only method of valuation which can
> be used or accepted. There is also the LIFO (Last In First Out) and
> the Weighted Average methods.
>
> On Feb 05 11:46 AM mogami_99 wrote:
I wanted to take advantage of the surge to straighten up my position. Now my understanding is as long as I do not rebuy SIRI before a certain period I can use this mornings sale as a loss. If I do rebuy I lose the loss and just go from where I rebought. (or some such malarky) In any case my account is now positive and I have a few K to play with (either back in SIRI or a new position in another stock)
I will be quite happy if we close above .1425 (yesterdays close) anything above that is gravey to me.
I am certainly glad I have to time to spend watching the ticker. However I started my sale at .20 then before I could execute mommy got stuck in the ice and I had to go push her out and then the babies needed diapers so by the time I actually completed the sale the price I got (after Sharebuilder took their commision) was .185
SP then when back up over .19 before heading south
You mentioned getting your subs renewed now for no additional charge. Dont you still have to pay the 2.99 charge monthly that they added as a premium package?
www.mffais.com/siri.ht...
On Feb 05 03:41 PM chizzle wrote:
> we will be down by the end of the day
Good quotes,, just curious,, what would happen if EchoStar bought more of their future debt, if that happens should we be worried?
Why is it Howard Stern discussed his planned departure [when his contract expires] just one day before the Echo Star announcement?
Why is it Howard Stern today (02/05/09 @ 7:10am) went even further and reported that Gary had lunch with some people in the business to find out what jobs might be available for a HTJA in the future when this show "goes away?"
Why even bring this up when the SP is in the toilet? Is Howard jockeying for a new contract? For new offers from radio or TV? Doesn't Howard realize that if he leaves Shareholders (his listeners) in the dust we will never listen to him again regardless of which medium he moves to?
Why is it that there are so many rumors of a take-over by Echo Star buying debt, forcing BK, and buying on the cheap when it is well known that a large percentage of the stockholders are Sirius subscribers and if a suitor does an unfriendly takeover there will be a mass exodus of subscribers cancelling their Sirius xm subscriptions including myself leaving echo star with a worthless product?
Echo Star would then need to develop a new customer base from scratch--yeah, like that's going to happen in this economy!
Doesn't Mel K understand that if Sirius goes BK (by ES or any other means) Mel will be persona non-grata on the Street? What company would ever want him at the helm?
If he hadn't gone for the 11th hour financing to complete the merger, would echo star have swooped in to make the same move they are now rumored to be making?
Why is it Howard Stern got to be number one in most markets on FM (by any means necessary, including parades and going on location) all the while only getting paid less than $15 million a year and yet on Sirius, he has done nothing in the way of promotion while making approx.. $100 mil a year? I'm just scratching my head...
And finally,
Why is it that Sirius Buzz Radio talks financials for the first half hour and takes approximately 3 calls (giving each caller an unlimited amount of time) in the last half hour of the radio show? Just let the callers make their point, move on and take more calls. But otherwise, Sirius Buzz Radio is the definitive show for shareholders and fans alike.
Keep up the good work
Nope. If you reset existing subs or get a new one with an extended plan, 1 yr or more I think, maybe 2yr, the free 32K internet feed will be maintained throughout your subscription period. You need to do this before March 11, 2009 or the offer will be gone.
I had annual subs on all of mine and was on a couple of months into them. They credited me the balance and charged me for the new resets. The cost I gave above was the result of that prorated credit. The premium feed, 128K, is as it has always been, at an additional monthly cost of 2.99 if you want it. I do have it on my primary sub, because I listen online all the time, and enjoy the enhanced bandwidth, but it is not required.
On Feb 05 01:52 PM Jagman wrote:
> COS1000
> You mentioned getting your subs renewed now for no additional charge.
> Dont you still have to pay the 2.99 charge monthly that they added
> as a premium package?
Wow, thought I heard it all on these boards but the non-pros have circled the stupidity wagons today like never before. Great comedy! Thanks for the laughs. You guys are so gullible LOL!! Echo is going to assume 51% of SIRI's debt and then take it all into BK court? Wow. you're all genius'...like old chizzle up there...chizzle, get to know how the market works before you try to make predictions..thank you. I've said here before how this was going to go. Today pre-market was .24. Next time it might be .44 or .54. Hmmm. I thought the clowns said this stock was dead? Doesn't look too dead to me. 151M traded hands today..yeah that's pretty dead. Second highest SI on the Street and a dead stock huh? You guys are just that unobservant. You're too busy trying to prove you're right that you miss the facts. Short cover/reshort probably about a wash today. Bottom feeders salivating on their keyboards EVERY morning since about December jumped in and out. Hold on to your proverbial hats. Clowns, a suggestion...please move along and go bother some other tickers!
Just a reminder:
>In December, Sirius Chief Executive Mel Karmazin said that while the tight credit market has made it difficult to get optimal terms, he is confident the company can refinance the debt<<
Killer, relmor et al...nice work today makin moves...I might of but I had to be out today. cos1000, 163888, informative as usual.
maffais.com is really later than that. From an Institutions end of quarter they have 45-90 days to file their 13F-HR with the SEC. I am not sure if its 45 or 90 but that makes it old anyways. The report, 13F-HR, (H)oldings (R)eport, is for all positions in previous quarter taken or given up, hence the added more, sold some, new holding, sold all, categories. The dates of purchase on the 13F-HR are the generally the form reporting date, not the position change date. The price reported is the equity's SP on the last day of the quarter reporting in all cases. This means you cannot tell by SP on the 13F when the stock was purchased.
In summary, this information is only useful to know who owns Sirius, what their activity in ownership has been over the last quarter, and really only useful when compared over 4 quarters. It also gives very General changes in overall market trends towards and equity over time. Percent buying, selling, and the like. Hope that helps or even confuses a little..... Here's an SEC link about 13F FAQ's:
www.sec.gov/divisions/...
On Feb 05 02:24 PM relmor wrote:
> Actually, last activity says jan 31st...So its like 3 days late now..
>
> www.mffais.com/siri.ht...
This is first day ever where the stock I hold are priced over what I paid.
I was looking to rebuy when it entered the .15's but never pulled the trigger.
If it goes up tomorrow from .165 then I would say we have crossed the Rubicon
After this mornings sale my remaining share price avg is .13 (down from .16)
What's up dude. Guaranteed, SIRI won't be saying boo about anything except for what they are and have been doing. Obvioulsy they haven't been sitting on their hands since the meeting (and before) so, we've pretty much learned that they comment on anything related their biz when ready (ad not before). All in good time, which is fast approaching...IMHO.
Oh, the other thing that mffais.com reports that confuses, changes to past quarter reports, which I have found out the hard way by not clicking on the institution and actually inspecting the 13F that mffais.com has picked up off of the SEC site. These add and sells can be very misleading, and very out dated.
On Feb 05 04:25 PM WhyBuySiriusNOW? wrote:
> Can Brandon or Tyler address these items on the Sirius Buzz Radio
> show tonight at 9pm?
>
> Why is it Howard Stern discussed his planned departure [when his
> contract expires] just one day before the Echo Star announcement?
>
>
> Why is it Howard Stern today (02/05/09 @ 7:10am) went even further
> and reported that Gary had lunch with some people in the business
> to find out what jobs might be available for a HTJA in the future
> when this show "goes away?"
>
> Why even bring this up when the SP is in the toilet? Is Howard jockeying
> for a new contract? For new offers from radio or TV? Doesn't Howard
> realize that if he leaves Shareholders (his listeners) in the dust
> we will never listen to him again regardless of which medium he moves
> to?
>
> Why is it that there are so many rumors of a take-over by Echo Star
> buying debt, forcing BK, and buying on the cheap when it is well
> known that a large percentage of the stockholders are Sirius subscribers
> and if a suitor does an unfriendly takeover there will be a mass
> exodus of subscribers cancelling their Sirius xm subscriptions including
> myself leaving echo star with a worthless product?
>
> Echo Star would then need to develop a new customer base from scratch--yeah,
> like that's going to happen in this economy!
>
> Doesn't Mel K understand that if Sirius goes BK (by ES or any other
> means) Mel will be persona non-grata on the Street? What company
> would ever want him at the helm?
>
> If he hadn't gone for the 11th hour financing to complete the merger,
> would echo star have swooped in to make the same move they are now
> rumored to be making?
>
> Why is it Howard Stern got to be number one in most markets on FM
> (by any means necessary, including parades and going on location)
> all the while only getting paid less than $15 million a year and
> yet on Sirius, he has done nothing in the way of promotion while
> making approx.. $100 mil a year? I'm just scratching my head...<br/>
>
> And finally,
>
> Why is it that Sirius Buzz Radio talks financials for the first half
> hour and takes approximately 3 calls (giving each caller an unlimited
> amount of time) in the last half hour of the radio show? Just let
> the callers make their point, move on and take more calls. But otherwise,
> Sirius Buzz Radio is the definitive show for shareholders and fans
> alike.
>
> Keep up the good work
Good day.
There may be something to this "NEWS", but I call it all Rumor...
With only $175M left to pay off in Feb, and no factual reconciliation of which Bondholders took debt for shares so far, GS may still own $127M of the Feb Bonds left. How is it that Echostar can do any more than buy $47M of what's left. Not much control in that. This whole story seems to be nothing more than manipulation and speculation. I read the whole WSJ article and there is very little factual data to sink your teeth into. I liked the action the SP had, just confirms our suspicion on how fast this thing will move when we get some real news......
THIS DOES NOT MEAN I AGREE WITH WHAT FOLLOWS. I AM NOT A SIRI BASHER. I OWN A LOT OF SHARES. I JUST WANT YORU THOUGHTS ON WHAT IS BELOW:
Clayton Destroys the value of Sirius by over paying for EVERYTHING from the NFL to Stern. He then loses credibility with shareholders as well as columnist who cover and write about Sirius as the company continues to miss its target dates of CFBE. Joe then turns around and hires Mel K...why? because Mel K. has the respect and credibility from the media sector and Wall Street. As Howard Stern's start date approaches- Joe Clayton starts selling shares of Sirius every month in 600,000 share lots. The closer Stern's start date gets the more shares Clayton sells. So,Mel K. steps up the plate and buys shares in Sirius to show his "support" and "belief" in the company...Wall St. yawns at the move and shares start to slide. Wall street starts pricing Sirius shares on the fundamentals of the company and not news hype about the increasing subscriber base like it has in the past. Mel K. buys another million shares to show his "confidence" in the company,as shareholders cheer the move-Wall Street yawns....again. But why shouldn't Mel K. buy shares-he's going to own a few million shares in a company that will be taken private anyway, so what does he have to lose. This plan was hatched over a year ago by Mel K. and Joe Clayton and is why there was a big push for a merger. They consolidated all the satellite spectrum into one company (a monopoly) and agree to the concessions set forth by the FCC to not raise prices for 2 years.....how can two companies that lose money hand over fist agree to not raising prices when no matter how many subs they get they continue to lose money?...Take it private.
Mel K's mouth is as big as his eyebrows and let it slip of what he would like to do-which would be to take the company private. That was just another nail in the coffin and Wall Street knew it-hence the current share prices.
If this was in fact a real buyout of the company the share price would have launched into orbit today and not just a jump up of .04-.05 cents with declining share volume. Wall Street knows this,but unfortunately retail investors don't, and bid up the price without understanding what is happening or has happened in the past.
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On Feb 05 05:24 PM chicagogary wrote:
> I am long sirius. i read this in another message board. I respect
> 163888, relmor, cos1000 and would like to hear their opinion on what
> I read below.
>
> THIS DOES NOT MEAN I AGREE WITH WHAT FOLLOWS. I AM NOT A SIRI BASHER.
> I OWN A LOT OF SHARES. I JUST WANT YORU THOUGHTS ON WHAT IS BELOW:
>
>
>
>
>
> Clayton Destroys the value of Sirius by over paying for EVERYTHING
> from the NFL to Stern. He then loses credibility with shareholders
> as well as columnist who cover and write about Sirius as the company
> continues to miss its target dates of CFBE. Joe then turns around
> and hires Mel K...why? because Mel K. has the respect and credibility
> from the media sector and Wall Street. As Howard Stern's start date
> approaches- Joe Clayton starts selling shares of Sirius every month
> in 600,000 share lots. The closer Stern's start date gets the more
> shares Clayton sells. So,Mel K. steps up the plate and buys shares
> in Sirius to show his "support" and "belief" in the company...Wall
> St. yawns at the move and shares start to slide. Wall street starts
> pricing Sirius shares on the fundamentals of the company and not
> news hype about the increasing subscriber base like it has in the
> past. Mel K. buys another million shares to show his "confidence"
> in the company,as shareholders cheer the move-Wall Street yawns....again.
> But why shouldn't Mel K. buy shares-he's going to own a few million
> shares in a company that will be taken private anyway, so what does
> he have to lose. This plan was hatched over a year ago by Mel K.
> and Joe Clayton and is why there was a big push for a merger. They
> consolidated all the satellite spectrum into one company (a monopoly)
> and agree to the concessions set forth by the FCC to not raise prices
> for 2 years.....how can two companies that lose money hand over fist
> agree to not raising prices when no matter how many subs they get
> they continue to lose money?...Take it private.
> Mel K's mouth is as big as his eyebrows and let it slip of what he
> would like to do-which would be to take the company private. That
> was just another nail in the coffin and Wall Street knew it-hence
> the current share prices.
>
> If this was in fact a real buyout of the company the share price
> would have launched into orbit today and not just a jump up of .04-.05
> cents with declining share volume. Wall Street knows this,but unfortunately
> retail investors don't, and bid up the price without understanding
> what is happening or has happened in the past.
>
> ReplyReport AbuseEditDeleteHide Options
I hear ya. I never thought anyone was sitting on their hands. I do think that Mel, for the most part, has been plugging away on every option while keeping his fingers crossed for a drastic turn around in the market. As we know, our economy continues to circulate in the vomit of the steaming lagoon of awful news and there is very little anyone can do to settle the intense fear. As observed, timing is everything. I have been very careful to make moves in and out of the market based on the overall state of the market and all factors involved that may affect a particular security or sector. This is particularly difficult with Sirius since I have never seen an instance where it reacted to anything other than itself. What sector is Sirius a part of? Technology? Auto? Entertainment? or the Sirius XM sector. This is my dilemma.
On Feb 05 05:28 PM chicagogary wrote:
> CLAYTON IS ON THE BOARD OF ECHOSTAR AND HE IS THE ONE THAT HIRED
> MEL K
On Feb 05 05:24 PM chicagogary wrote:
> I am long sirius. i read this in another message board. I respect
> 163888, relmor, cos1000 and would like to hear their opinion on what
> I read below.
>
> THIS DOES NOT MEAN I AGREE WITH WHAT FOLLOWS. I AM NOT A SIRI BASHER.
> I OWN A LOT OF SHARES. I JUST WANT YORU THOUGHTS ON WHAT IS BELOW:
>
>
>
>
>
> Clayton Destroys the value of Sirius by over paying for EVERYTHING
> from the NFL to Stern. He then loses credibility with shareholders
> as well as columnist who cover and write about Sirius as the company
> continues to miss its target dates of CFBE. Joe then turns around
> and hires Mel K...why? because Mel K. has the respect and credibility
> from the media sector and Wall Street. As Howard Stern's start date
> approaches- Joe Clayton starts selling shares of Sirius every month
> in 600,000 share lots. The closer Stern's start date gets the more
> shares Clayton sells. So,Mel K. steps up the plate and buys shares
> in Sirius to show his "support" and "belief" in the company...Wall
> St. yawns at the move and shares start to slide. Wall street starts
> pricing Sirius shares on the fundamentals of the company and not
> news hype about the increasing subscriber base like it has in the
> past. Mel K. buys another million shares to show his "confidence"
> in the company,as shareholders cheer the move-Wall Street yawns....again.
> But why shouldn't Mel K. buy shares-he's going to own a few million
> shares in a company that will be taken private anyway, so what does
> he have to lose. This plan was hatched over a year ago by Mel K.
> and Joe Clayton and is why there was a big push for a merger. They
> consolidated all the satellite spectrum into one company (a monopoly)
> and agree to the concessions set forth by the FCC to not raise prices
> for 2 years.....how can two companies that lose money hand over fist
> agree to not raising prices when no matter how many subs they get
> they continue to lose money?...Take it private.
> Mel K's mouth is as big as his eyebrows and let it slip of what he
> would like to do-which would be to take the company private. That
> was just another nail in the coffin and Wall Street knew it-hence
> the current share prices.
>
> If this was in fact a real buyout of the company the share price
> would have launched into orbit today and not just a jump up of .04-.05
> cents with declining share volume. Wall Street knows this,but unfortunately
> retail investors don't, and bid up the price without understanding
> what is happening or has happened in the past.
I still have several times more shares then I ever intended on owning. (when I began I thought 10k shares was a lot and 5k was my dream target LOL)
Best of luck. (I have two big dogs who sit next to me and demand I pet them)
On Feb 05 05:21 PM killerkaul wrote:
> Mogami-99................ If I were you I'd buy as many more shares
> as I could risk before the 15th thru the 2nd................... as
> your current risk is zip IMHO. It would be a very low risk to gain
> ratio for me. We may never again have this oportunity...............
> on this the greatest of all poker tours. ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL INNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!...
> Long Siri. ..killer
A few thoughts. First, I have to stick with Mel and what they have told us (which is your usual position). As far as the SP going up, there are a few things in play starting today. The sleeping giant has woken up (it was bound to either this week or next). We know the SP has been gurggling at the .11 bottom due to shorts and MM's holding steady. They've been waiting for one of two things, a BK announcement (where they could get the SP down to where CHTR's is now), or news where they all have to get the F out and fast. Even in a BK or similar, they would take it down to .06 first, then get the F out while driving it back up to .25 -.30, then back down into sub penny on other mass exodus selling. Nothing new there as we know.
I think today was just a confusion trade all the around where most people thought it was refi news-related. But also people heard "take-over" news..more related to the tender variety (but in this case using the debt). But that still is going to awaken people who are waiting on any news with baited breath. Do we really believe Mel would allow this? I read one article that says Echo "has been buying and amassing SIRI debt for some time now". What? You mean to tell me that wouldn't have leaked out before today? Further in this environment we're all told is so bad (and getting worse), suddenly assuming another company's debt (and attempting to assume enough that they become the main creditor entity) is sound business strategy? I don't believe it. Not for a minute. If anything, I can see this as part of SIRI's strategy of handling debt between all players (JPM, UBS) et al. Remember Evercore was in the mix, JPM was active in consulting (per SIRI's PPT at the meeting). The goal was to create a strategy that works. Echo is probably part of it. As you say, taking on debt of another company and just hoping to be near the front in court is not what anybody wants right now (if ever). Very messy and time consuming. I have to believe this is just the tip of the iceberg of the dealing with the debtload. My guess it was agreed to by all the party's involved that Echo would take on some SIRI debt at this time. Certainly it does make them a creditor and they get interest payments. So they make money there and maybe they do look at it as a win win since maybe someday they might want to take the company into their fold. Certainly not now though. IMHO. As i said earlier in another post. Mel and Co have been eyeballing all of this now for 6 months. They hired Evercore. They said JPM was consulting. Way too long for just something like this to pop up out of the blue as a negative or a trump (just before the GS Notes are due). I don't buy it. I think Echo was a company that was contacted by the consulting companies and it was a good deal for them to take some of the debt for now. This is what SIRI has been trying to do all this time. Find creative ways to deal with debt load so they can get back to growing the company full time and to get this SP back up.
SIRI is not CHTR. I don't think at all this is any kind of final short squeeze after which the whole thing is going to collapse. Just doesn't add up for SIRI right now.
Relmor also makes a very significant point to which one must wonder where is the negative in this debt purchase by Echostar.
Looks like another positive day for SiriusXM with many more to follow.
Long SiriusXM
Wasn't insuiating anything...you're all good w/me. Their Industry is Media and their Sector is Services but you're absolutely right. They are tied to so many other Industries and sectors that can influence their SP. And yeah, not much action at all last 6 weeks. But that's all about to change...glad it's all good w/you..
With ya on that...all today was, was the starting gun going off. It was bound to either this week or next.
What is good is another company believing Sirius is going to pay the Feb debt.
All the other hype I thought was to get hits on their pinhead web sites
I'm not sure how to respond to what you read from another site. It sounds like one man's (or woman's) version of a bunch of loosely put together historical events, colored with opinion, viewed with some knowledge of the present. The author puts cause and effect together, taking actual events and tying them to a stock price outcome, absent of all other possible variables that may have been present at the time. In short, its a story, and if it is all true, I would think that a few people..... .....got some splainin to do.... I can think of a few sites that would publish such non substantiated collaboration to commit fraud, default shareholders, violate a number of SEC regulations and in general conspired illegally, for their own supposed gain in front of the world....... I can't wait for the sequel.
How much can I get for the one below and do I get paid by every site that posts it?
Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ SIRI) Has Serious issues that will need to be resolved before goblins come out of woods and devour their panic stricken stock holders. First CEO Mel Karmazin needs to figure out how to pay his bills in this depression bound economy. Can he do it? or will monkeys fly out his butt? Stay tuned as we explore the dangerous rapids SIRI must navigate before landing the shareholders in the promised land of $3.00 shares.
First the company needs to payoff 900 million in 2009 debt with a mere 2.7 billion in yearly revenue. Hard to find credit in today's market. And then there is the auto market Sirius needs as a source for new subscribers. With only a $15,000 tax credit being offered to new buyers it seems there is no relief coming from that direction.
And of course we would be remiss if we failed to mention the on going drama of the hostile takeover coming from Echo star who quietly amassed 51% of the 174 million debt due in Feb. With this colossal leverage Echo will no doubt drive Sirius into bankruptcy where they can line up behind the other holders of more then 3 billion in debt and divy up Sirius assets. Shrewd move all of Wall Street acknowledges.
It seems Sirius along with it's shareholders are headed for destruction.
POSITION: Short Sirius
Yes, man something is going on here...But its much easier to fake a high price stock up than bring a huge company in the spotlight down...From $15 a share, with obvious dilution...There is no hidden story with Sirius pre merger...Hype with Howard, Clayton was smart and sold into the hype, knowing the books, etc...
The connection is not lost, and the WSJ article is a joke today, pure horse crap...Biggest smelliest piece of cow dung I have ever smelled...
Im pissed I got cute today..Not im sitting with a 1/4 position, only shaving 2 cents off, with premarket tomorrow to try to scramble to get my shares back..Im actually not even hoping for a pullback, I want everyone on here to go up up up from here..Ill be fine, Ill get my position back reasonably , I will buy in the morning most of it back, but I never enter a position with only 2 purchases...So I will be exposed probably to a few days of worry....I like worrying about not making money vs. worrying about losing money though..I banked a .07 cent gain on this stock, at a 100 percent position, I am not upset...I feel this is good news, I feel a jump was coming, and this is all they could use to scare us off the stock..Who knows the MM's might have allowed this jump, used news to control the buying, and send it back a few cents...It makes the up jerky, and gives chances for smart money(insiders) to jump in, if they havent already...Or the other way...investors to Jump out, if it goes south...
NO ONE buys debt because they want to see if a judge will give them some money...SIrius isnt going to lose control of this company to Echostar..>What a joke..Echostar wishes they were Sirius...Just need a clean balance sheet, and its a go from here..Time to start making money
Headline
Sirius XM is SERIOUSLY SCREWED:::DUMBSTREITJO...
(Im still waiting for this headline by the way for real, I know its coming)
Sirius XM today just announced that its paying off every penny of its 09 debt, but that doesnt mean this stock is out of the woods. Rumor has it that a gang of Somalian Pirates have latched on to 2 of the companies satellites and are prepared to board...There demands could be billions of dollars of ranson from this company. Word has it they will threaten to broadcast audio and video of Rosanne Barr and Rosie O donell singing the shower, while they wash themselves with squooshies. This of course with send its stock into the worthless area once again. More news as it comes...
you did good. Don't beat yourself up. With so much cash to recover, many of us will be trading the hills all year at various times and at various SP levels. You got a jump on it out of the gate. That's a good pop for you on 100%...now like you say, just average back in...you're all over it.
All I say is this is more of the information/mis-inform... that we want to be back to. Not "SIRI won't make it past '08" but "what deal this and what deal that". That will keep MM's honest and keep them from being comfortable pulling bids...
Give us more!!
Toss and turn, fall to sleep holding my pillow tight (waiting for the market to open)
All the time I think of you, you're with me no matter what I do
Walk around with a smile upon my face,
In my mind, you have taken up permanent space
I am feeling what I can't explain, and if where your going is the same
Let's get Sirius
Let's get Sirius
Let's get Sirus, and make a fortune
Let's get Sirius
Let's get Sirius
Let's get Sirius, and make a fortune
S.I.R.I.U.S.
baby let's get Sirius
yeh, yeh, yeh, yeh, yeh, yeh, yeh, yeh, yeh, yeh
In my portfolio is the place you wanna be
With my investment in you, and your profit inside of me (bank)
Longing for a pop just ain't fair
call the broker to buy another share
Let's get Sirius
Let's get Sirius
Let's get Sirius, and make a fortune
(repeat ad nauseum)
Both of us feel like exploding, 'cos this stuffs too hot for holding
Let's get Sirius and make some bread
Stock you've got my wallet moaning, just believe profits ment for cloning
Let's get Sirius and pay off my car
Sirius, (oh) Sirius
Let's get Sirius, my baby needs new shoes.
On Feb 05 08:18 PM connorport wrote:
> Mogami! Seriously! stop copying and pasting.. have a thought!
>> EchoStar Corp. and Sirius XM Radio Inc. have been engaged in talks for several weeks about EchoStar's interest in the troubled satellite-radio company, but have failed to come to a resolution, according to people familiar with the situation.
Sirius is trying to avoid a bankruptcy filing and the possibility that the EchoStar could take control of the company on a hostile basis. But that could prove difficult, given the difficulty Sirius has had raising the $175 million necessary to satisfy a debt <<
OK, so what's wrong with this picture besides (as someone posted earlier) MSM are hard up for conflict news.
First, the article says SIRI and Echo have been "in talks" for several weeks (earlier today it was reported/implied that Echo has been buying up the May SIRI bank debt on the sly in attempts to coup SIRI) LOL. But this now says they have been "in talks". As implied by this spin, the talks they have been in, were ostensibly SIRI trying to talk Echo out of taking them over LOL. As they then say >>Sirius is trying to avoid a bankruptcy filing and the possibility that the EchoStar could take control of the company on a hostile basis. << Huh? BULL S! What? Apparentely SIRI is begging Echo not to take them over!!! LOL Not!
Ok so then they say this:
>>But that could prove difficult, given the difficulty Sirius has had raising the $175 million necessary to satisfy a debt<<
Hmmm. Remember not to long ago when the MSM couldn't stop reporting that SIRI was having trouble paying 300M? (the full 300). Now it's 174M that they're having trouble paying. I see. Just the same BS, different day, different numbers.
(For the purpose of making my point that this is an Article in the WSJ about nothing, I have made some comments throughout the first half, a little more than most news outlets carried to emphasize its nothingness. my use of periods ...... was to accentuate the speculation and lack of facts that I stated in earlier post.)
EchoStar, has recently acquired part of a $300M tranche of Sirius debt that matures on Feb. 17th, ...... according to the people......
Sirius recently converted part of the debt to equity, reducing the total debt outstanding to about $175 million. .....
(my insert: Notice Here)... It isn't clear whether Mr. Ergen participated in the exchange,......
...... however......, Mr. Ergen .......could........ also be buying up senior bank debt, due in May, which trades thinly on the over-the-counter market.
Mr. Ergen's .... (my add here to bring it down because they forgot to in the original article) COULD BE .... salvo comes as Sirius shares have sunk to just 14 cents each, and large portions of its $3.4 billion debt load trade at a deep discount. The company, which has a market value of $501 million, isn't profitable, and has lost nearly all its value since the Sirius-XM combination was finalized this summer.
Echostar....... could be pursuing...... a plan to use the debt as a way take control of the company either inside or outside of bankruptcy.
Either way, (my add here: this is good because they want you to believe now it is their intention) current shareholders would be left with nothing. It ......could push....... for a debt-for-equity swap outside bankruptcy, so long as it was not trying to impair or force concessions on bondholders or vendors.
More likely, it is using a strategy ...... (my insert here: notice how now that it is More Likel, and IT IS USING, now we're really on a role)...... often employed by equity funds, which will buy up to 51% or more of the bank debt, (my insert: and of course now)...... knowing the company will soon need a concession from its bank group, such as a waiver for a pending loan default.
(my insert: This is where we bring it all together in our fantasy)...
It can then block any such move, force a bankruptcy, and try to take control of the company in the bankruptcy process, swapping its debt for equity in the company. Under this scenario, funds often buy out at a discount other bondholders while cutting deals with banks to roll over or continue their pre-petition loans.
With about $925 million in debt coming due this year, Sirius is up against a wall. It also owes $43 million for programming fees to the National Football League on Feb. 17, plus $60 million to Major League Baseball in March. The MLB cash is in escrow, and a person familiar with the matter says that the company is negotiating hard with the league to let Sirius tap those funds.
When Sirius and XM completed their merger last July, it was supposed to represent a strong new beginning, with the two fledgling companies becoming an entertainment force. Instead, a 17-month approval process diverted valuable executive attention from the underlying business, and consumers grew more enamored with their iPods, mobile phones and other alternatives to satellite radio.
I had to go back and dissect the original as I saw it this morning. Man are we on the same track or what. Not only should it not have been printed to begin with, but now their giving their fantasy a second write and read for all of us to wonder. WoW, WTF
OK, OK, I'm done..........
right on man.... Buy, Buy, Buy,......... but DYODD LOL
Right on. Makes good sense..deal a little bandwith. That's why SIRI is so powerful. WSJ = spin losers. As we know that's why NAB fought like hell to block this. They knew that if SIRI could get past '08 (and they know what kind of a m'fer Mel is, who WILL), look out. Also as we know that's why the MSM, bought and paid for by NAB money, has had it in for SIRI and tried to kill the SP. They thought they could. They threw a party a few weeks ago when we intradayed @ .10. Oh, but guess again. We're baaaaaak. Now they will have no way of stopping this giant from kicking ass all over their terrestrial wasteland.
cos1000...
Not surprised we both just had to read between the lines. I missed all the fireworks in real-time this morning but later saw all the articles. Each one a slightly different spin but the same bent. Good breakdown!
This is maybe even more telling of how bad this wreaks:
>>When Sirius and XM completed their merger last July, it was supposed to represent a strong new beginning, with the two fledgling companies becoming an entertainment force. Instead, a 17-month approval process diverted valuable executive attention from the underlying business, and consumers grew more enamored with their iPods, mobile phones and other alternatives to satellite radio.<<
So let me get this straight. It's the debt and MSM that have killed the SP. Hmmm, but wait. This article says in July it was supposd to represent a strong new beginning. Granted. Uh...but wait, they HAD the debt in July. Naturally they conveniently overlook that here like it didn't exist. Then they say the delay diverted valuable executive attention away from the underlying business. BULLSH%T. And consumers grew more enamored with ipods, et al. BULLSH%T. Subs have not suffered once (as we know) and they've outperformed all their punk-ass competition throughout. It's ALWAYS been about the debt. Period.
So yep. An article loaded with crap. But in this case it awoke our sleeping giant and all the parasites started scrambling like roaches this morning when the light was turned on. So we'll take it, thank you very much...
better days ahead...
For anyone interested on a comment about the last 15 min of trading today...when the SP cascaded down to .15 then shot back up just at the close (and which fooled at least one poster here). That is known as a classic shakeout. MM's start pulling bids to see who they can get to panic. Probably reaped them a nice haul this time. Then they put all their bids back up last minute/seconds. They only do that to trick joe inexperienced trader...something to keep in mind in the future--esp. when a stock is in play like today. If playing the short-term trade like Killer did, it can reap cause of the EOD correction into the BMO sucker kick. Watch Killer, he knows what he's doing...
Scrambling to Clear Debt, Sirius Talks to Echostar..
"Sirius XM Radio Inc. Chief Executive Mel Karmazin is scrambling to raise about $175 million by Feb. 17 to fend off the company's bankruptcy and a possible takeover threat from EchoStar Corp."
Screw these a-holes..fend off the company's BK.. News to me..didn't know that they had already filed. WSJ sucks. Hope they BK like NY Times will soon be!
my sentiments exactly....had to change my name this morning just to post. My email and old name were not being accepted....so I am no longer asm610....but I am still here!
I will always be in the fight...you'll find me smack dab in the middle of it!
As to the debt info we are hearing.....take what you hear with a grain of salt and the peoples upraised eyebrow! Most of this is nothing more than spin doctoring.....and alot of what the MSM is putting out there is meant to crush our spirit....in the hopes that their Mogul bosses can destroy this company. Terrestrial radio is on the attack!
Let me guess.... it doesn't fit your self-educated calculations. Hard to explain how this love-stock could treat you so bad, isn't it? Just can't imagine Mel & Co. make you look like complete hot-air buffoons. Shocking. And all the cheerleaders who rooted you on..... how could your limited wisdom let them down like that? Kind of hard to imagine which is the bigger fool now. Is it the leader..... or the follower?
Perhaps you all need a group hug..... to tell each other every thing is going to be all right and Mel is going to coming riding in and save you all from humiliation. Try to razzle dazzle each other by throwing a bunch of fancy Wall Street words and acronyms around.... and then make claims how SIRI is testing a new low, so other new readers think you really know what you are talking about, when really you & I know better, and know you don't have a clue. Good luck with running your mouth much more than your ears.
Maybe next time those fakes won't be so eager to criticize others. Maybe now they will understand that Mel doesn't give the first flying flip about them and all their flag waving.
Please, and you know which ones I am talking to, please explain how this happened to such market scholars as yourself?