Sirius XM: The Big Money Keeps Pouring In

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 |  About: Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI), Includes: QVCA
by: Little Apple

According to NASDAQ's latest data from the end of Q4 2012, Institutional Ownership of Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) jumped 141 million shares. Currently, 482 institutions own 1,957,953,534 shares, up from 456 institutions that owned a total of 1,817,333,613 shares in Q3.

Top 15 Institutional Owners of Sirius XM

Owner Name Date Shared Held Change (Shares) Change(%) Value(in 1,000s)
VANGUARD GROUP INC 12/31/2012 172,865,323 27,210 .02 547,983
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT CO LLP 12/31/2012 140,713,322 12,403,250 9.67 446,061
SAC CAPITAL ADVISORS LP 09/30/2012 131,376,600 16,897,064 14.76 416,464
FMR LLC 12/31/2012 127,023,677 42,264,166 49.86 402,665
WINSLOW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 12/31/2012 124,012,478 124,012,478 New 393,120
BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVESTORS UK HOLDINGS LTD 12/31/2012 80,314,251 (7,273,397) (8.3) 254,596
COOPERMAN LEON G 12/31/2012 71,479,203 7,546,900 11.81 226,589
STATE STREET CORP 12/31/2012 60,022,765 1,049,754 1.78 190,272
INVESCO LTD. 12/31/2012 56,266,945 7,889,974 16.31 178,366
COATUE MANAGEMENT LLC 12/31/2012 45,794,813 (4,437,368) (8.83) 145,170
FRED ALGER MANAGEMENT INC 12/31/2012 45,224,130 17,004,984 60.26 143,360
BLUE RIDGE CAPITAL, L.L.C. 12/31/2012 43,300,000 (35,500,000) (45.05) 137,261
SLATE PATH CAPITAL LP 12/31/2012 36,750,000 36,750,000 New 116,498
COLUMBUS CIRCLE INVESTORS 12/31/2012 32,879,946 30,945,906 1,600.07 104,229
NORTHERN TRUST CORP 12/31/2012 26,076,542 2,195,735 9.20 82,663
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As you can see from the list, SAC Capital Advisors has not been updated yet at NASDAQ. However, Bloomberg is reporting that SAC did file with the SEC, and their new position in Sirius is 69,783,900 shares, which is down 61,592,700. This is actually good news, since many Sirius investors were concerned that SAC might be forced to immediately sell its positions due to the insider trading accusations from the SEC. According to an article Friday in The New York Times:

The firm was founded by Steven A. Cohen, its billionaire manager. Over the last half-decade, federal authorities have tried doggedly to build a case against Mr. Cohen, one of Wall Street's most influential players. In late November 2012, the government appeared to inch closer to that goal. According to an article in The New York Times, federal regulators are weighing a civil fraud case against SAC, according to a call that Mr. Cohen held with the fund's investors that morning. SAC said it had received a so-called Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission, an indication that the agency was considering an enforcement action against the hedge fund. A Wells notice from the S.E.C. relates to possible civil action but does not imply that the Justice Department is preparing a criminal case against SAC or Mr. Cohen.

On December 9, I wrote an article pointing out that (as of 9/30/12) Sirius was the largest investment that SAC owned at that time. On December 7, when an exclusive Reuters article broke the news of possible insider trading, Sirius shares fell from a high of $2.85, the day before, to a low of $2.74. However, the price recovered to a high of $3.01 seven trading days later:

Sirius XM Share Price

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
Dec 18, 2012 2.97 3.01 2.94 2.96 89,536,700 2.96
Dec 17, 2012 2.86 2.93 2.85 2.92 85,154,000 2.92
Dec 14, 2012 2.75 2.93 2.68 2.91 121,952,500 2.91
Dec 14, 2012 0.05 Dividend
Dec 13, 2012 2.78 2.82 2.74 2.77 66,917,300 2.72
Dec 12, 2012 2.74 2.79 2.72 2.78 41,906,700 2.73
Dec 11, 2012 2.76 2.78 2.72 2.73 57,753,800 2.68
Dec 10, 2012 2.78 2.78 2.73 2.74 44,711,800 2.69
Dec 7, 2012 2.81 2.82 2.75 2.76 74,722,800 2.71
Dec 6, 2012 2.85 2.85 2.79 2.79 120,929,900 2.74
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.
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I think that most Sirius investors realized that this is an ongoing situation at SAC. And the effect on the share price was only temporary. However, the fact that the firm has pared down its ownership in Sirius is good news for Sirius bulls.

Forty-four institutions sold out of their positions in Sirius during Q4. These all had insignificant holdings in the company. Here are the top 15 according to NASDAQ:

Top 15 Sold Out Positions: Sirius XM

Owner Name Date Shared Held Change (Shares) Change(%) Value(in 1,000s)
3G CAPITAL PARTNERS LTD. 09/30/2012 0 (18,739,395) Sold Out
A.R.T. ADVISORS, LLC 12/31/2012 0 (1,021,100) Sold Out
ADVISORS ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. 12/31/2012 0 (15,051) Sold Out
ARCHIPEL ASSET MANAGEMENT AB 12/31/2012 0 (2,110,399) Sold Out
BRIGHTON JONES LLC 12/31/2012 0 (36,705) Sold Out
BURNEY CO/ 12/31/2012 0 (157,170) Sold Out
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INC /CA/ 12/31/2012 0 (640,300) Sold Out
CORSAIR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 12/31/2012 0 (100,000) Sold Out
DF DENT & CO INC 12/31/2012 0 (10,700) Sold Out
DIAMONDBACK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 12/31/2012 0 (246,356) Sold Out
DP FUND MANAGEMENT LTD 09/30/2012 0 (387,689) Sold Out
EVEREST CAPITAL LLC 12/31/2012 0 (419,200) Sold Out
FIRST NEW YORK SECURITIES LLC /NY 12/31/2012 0 (100) Sold Out
FRANKLIN STREET ADVISORS INC /NC 12/31/2012 0 (64,560) Sold Out
GEDULD E E 12/31/2012 0 (25,000) Sold Out
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However, 76 new firms added Sirius positions in Q4:

Top 15 New Institutional Positions: Sirius XM

Owner Name Date Shared Held Change (Shares) Change(%) Value(in 1,000s)
WINSLOW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 12/31/2012 124,012,478 124,012,478 New 393,120
SLATE PATH CAPITAL LP 12/31/2012 36,750,000 36,750,000 New 116,498
GCIC LTD. 12/31/2012 17,506,900 17,506,900 New 55,497
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS 12/31/2012 11,055,000 11,055,000 New 35,044
HOUND PARTNERS, LLC 12/31/2012 10,801,656 10,801,656 New 34,241
NUVEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC 12/31/2012 9,433,443 9,433,443 New 29,904
JAT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 12/31/2012 7,511,271 7,511,271 New 23,811
SEI TRUST CO 12/31/2012 6,020,700 6,020,700 New 19,086
LIGHT STREET CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 12/31/2012 2,574,147 2,574,147 New 8,160
CHARTER BRIDGE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 12/31/2012 1,862,000 1,862,000 New 5,903
INDEPENDENCE CAPITAL ASSET PARTNERS, LLC 12/31/2012 1,610,600 1,610,600 New 5,106
NATIONWIDE FUND ADVISORS 12/31/2012 1,583,400 1,583,400 New 5,019
GREEN ARROW CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 12/31/2012 1,423,307 1,423,307 New 4,512
ARROWPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC 12/31/2012 1,275,000 1,275,000 New 4,042
EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS 12/31/2012 1,181,000 1,181,000 New 3,744
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As I pointed out in my last article, the most significant one was Winslow Capital:

Winslow Capital Management, LLC purchased almost 125 million shares last quarter, making it the 4th largest institutional owner of Sirius. The company was founded in 1992 by Clark Winslow, and focuses on its high net worth investors. Winslow only buys fundamentally sound stocks that are put through very rigorous analysis.

And now, once the new list at NASDAQ is updated with the SAC sale, Winslow will automatically become the third largest institutional owner of Sirius XM. Many analysts are also focusing on the fact that Leon Cooperman added another 11% (7th on the list above) to his Sirius holdings. But in spite of all of this institutional activity, the share price has remained relatively flat for the last month:

Chart forSIRIUS XM Radio Inc.

There has been some new anxiety concerning the tender offer for the 7% exchangeable 2014 Notes. And some investors are getting antsy because of the delay in the share buybacks. As I noted in a recent article, February will be the month to hold your shares tight. Because investors are competing against the company for share ownership, as Sirius tries to accumulate $2 billion worth of stock at the cheapest possible price.

Consider that there are approximately 6.5 billion shares. Fifty percent of those are owned by Liberty Media (LINTA), and almost 2 billion shares are owned by institutions. So 3.25 billion added to 2 billion equals 5.25 billion. Once the buyback is implemented, there will be .635 billion shares off the market (at today's price of $3.15). That would be a total of 5.86 billion shares in what I consider strong hands, or retired. This only leaves 640 million shares, of which 400 million are shorted. This may cause a considerable short squeeze around the middle of March as the options expire. And as I predict, once this first buyback is complete, the share price should top $3.65. When will that happen? Only Sirius insiders know for sure.

Disclosure: I am long SIRI. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.