Does Obama's Stimulus Plan Pass the 'Prudent Person' Test? 18 comments
an article to
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
The health insurance industry has a concept in medical underwriting called the prudent person. If a prudent person would have sought medical attention (in the underwriter’s judgment) that could have revealed a preexisting condition basis for rejection, the policy is rescinded. In essence, it is undone. The premium is returned and the policy holder must reimburse the insurer for all covered medical costs. Does the Obama Administration pass the prudent person test with its now $900B stimulus plan?
President Obama is acting like the messiah or second coming ready to hand us the new ten commandments of economics, and cannot understand why we are not coming together under his lead. First he tried reconciliation through expanding the plan to include every piece of pork and tax break that both parties wanted. Then when he was unable to convince the grass roots American people on the plan’s merits, he resorted to dictating to both the legislators and the people that he knew best. Sensing President Obama’s frustration as a sign of weakness, the Republicans started to revolt.
Beyond the jockeying for political advantage, the grass roots see an imprudent political process. Switching back and forth between dictating and trying to instill fear of economic disaster, is not winning over the American people. President Obama and his staging crew have learned nothing from Presidents Reagan and Clinton’s mixture of humble optimism. Even President Bush, of whom I was no fan, gave a sense of humble sincerity. President Obama, whom I voted for hoping for healthcare reform, makes me feel that I am being talked down to. Successful presidents are not great stage shows, monarchs or dictators. Successful presidents are great communicators; so far President Obama is not.
Let’s get back to the prudent theme: Germany found out the hard way that sovereign debt of G7 or G8 nations cannot be issued without limit. They recently had a failed auction, whereby they did not receive enough bids to sell the entire issue. Even with interest rates on treasuries and mortgages starting to head up, the Obama Administration believes they can lower mortgage rates and sell an additional $2T in government debt this year. That does not give much credit to the rules of thermodynamics, or the law of supply and demand for you economists. The health insurers would rescind the Obama Administration’s economic policy if next week’s massive $67B treasury auction does not go well. Trouble is the American people cannot get their premiums (taxes) back.
The health insurers would have told the President that rising interest rates was a clear indication that he should have returned to the doctors of fiscal and monetary policies for checkup. That would have revealed that the country had a preexisting condition of borrowing up to the limits of its capacity and an economic insurance policy would not be issued. Unfortunately, the Administration’s chief economic architect Larry Summers does not have to pass medical or economic underwriting. The health insurers would surely reject him on both accounts.
On the serious side: The Treasury needs to test the appetite for the volume of debt they would need to sell this year to support both their stimulus and banking plans. Congress cannot judge the impact on the debt markets of one plan without the other. It appears that the Administration has given up delaying the banking plan until the stimulus has passed.
I believe that next week’s treasury auction will indicate whether the Federal Reserve is still in control of interest rates or whether our debtor nation is at the mercy of our creditors. A rise in treasury rates implies that the United States has reached its borrowing limit at the current rates and the flight to safety does not always mean to the dollar. Keep in mind that our lenders in China, the rest of Asia, Europe and even the oil rich Middle East are also in trouble. Their capacity and desire to buy treasuries has been diminished.
I think that next week will confirm that interest rates are past the bottom and starting back up. The Fed has lost control. But the Administration can control the rate of interest rate increase (the second derivative) by the size of fiscal stimulus. The bigger the better is certainly not prudent.
I see a scenario of deflation in real estate and durable goods, inflation in food and other consumables, and a slowly accelerating rise in interest rates. Some commodities would fall or stabilize to conform to lower durable prices. We are heading for a 5% 10-year treasury and 30-year fixed conforming mortgage interest rates in the 6.5% to 8% range by year's end or earlier. Even former Treasury Secretary Paulson called the 4.5% mortgage a pipe dream.
Related Articles
|




















You seem to be advocating that the Obama administration seek a prescription from the very quack 'doctors' that got us into this quagmire in the first place!
Perhaps instead of band-aids, the patient requires an enema???
Your article touches on something I will be writing about in the next few days - namely - is there a negative feedback mechanism that could come into play with respect to the stimulus? Could we be making the situation worse? Could we potentially choke off recovery because of pro-active actions we take now?
When an airplane gets hit by wind shear the natural reaction is to pull up on the stick - that is, try and gain altitude. The correct course of action is to point the nose down to gain airspeed, and then pull up. It is counter intuitive. I have to wonder if we are in an analogous situation.
1. The Republicans lost for a number of good reasons and anything they say today is white noise for the next two years; the more vitriol the less useful; thoughtful Republicans will succeed at getting thoughtful messages out and perhaps building consensus for good ideas.
2. To any informed or causal observer the current situation is akin to the undertow at the sea shore; good news is pulled out to sea while the life is being sucked from consumer and investor confidence.
3. Who cares how President Obama sounds to your or anyone else's ear? Are his ideas sound or not? The opinions are louder than the waves in the current news cycle.
4. Your point about Germany appears to be germane and important, as do your points about China and the rest of the World's willingness to carry the debt burden of the US; the German situation suggests not.
5. Assuming you are correct in your assertion that the US is at the mercy of its Creditors, other than pointing out the house is on fire, what concrete suggestion would you have beyond the current ebb and flow of ideas being hammered through Congress?
6. We might all benefit if the shift was to "constructive criticism" rather than plain criticism; America's ingenuity is its many small voices and pondering minds having spirited and thoughtful debate for resolution, not for the sake of debate alone.
7. With your assertion over T-Bills and Mortgage Rates; when?
His Exalted Excellency Barack Hussein Obama, the FIBPOTUS
"There is no disagreement that we need action by our government, a recovery plan that will help to jumpstart the economy."
Public response from over 300 economists:
“With all due respect Mr. President, that is not true.”
“Notwithstanding reports that all economists are now Keynesians and that we all support a big increase in the burden of government, we do not believe that more government spending is a way to improve economic performance. More government spending by Hoover and Roosevelt did not pull the United States economy out of the Great Depression in the 1930s. More government spending did not solve Japan's "lost decade" in the 1990s. As such, it is a triumph of hope over experience to believe that more government spending will help the U.S. today. To improve the economy, policy makers should focus on reforms that remove impediments to work, saving, investment and production. Lower tax rates and a reduction in the burden of government are the best ways of using fiscal policy to boost growth.”
Signed by economists:
Burton Abrams, Univ. of Delaware
Douglas Adie, Ohio University
Ryan Amacher, Univ. of Texas at Arlington
J.J. Arias, Georgia College & State University
Howard Baetjer, Jr., Towson University
Stacie Beck, Univ. of Delaware
Don Bellante, Univ. of South Florida
James Bennett, George Mason University
Bruce Benson, Florida State University
Sanjai Bhagat, Univ. of Colorado at Boulder
Mark Bils, Univ. of Rochester
Alberto Bisin, New York University
Walter Block, Loyola University New Orleans
Cecil Bohanon, Ball State University
Michele Boldrin, Washington University in St. Louis
Donald Booth, Chapman University
Michael Bordo, Rutgers University
Samuel Bostaph, Univ. of Dallas
Scott Bradford, Brigham Young University
Genevieve Briand, Eastern Washington University
George Brower, Moravian College
James Buchanan, Nobel laureate
Richard Burdekin, Claremont McKenna College
Henry Butler, Northwestern University
William Butos, Trinity College
Peter Calcagno, College of Charleston
Bryan Caplan, George Mason University
Art Carden, Rhodes College
James Cardon, Brigham Young University
Dustin Chambers, Salisbury University
Emily Chamlee-Wright, Beloit College
V.V. Chari, Univ. of Minnesota
Barry Chiswick, Univ. of Illinois at Chicago
Lawrence Cima, John Carroll University
J.R. Clark, Univ. of Tennessee at Chattanooga
Gian Luca Clementi, New York University
R. Morris Coats, Nicholls State University
John Cochran, Metropolitan State College
John Cochrane, Univ. of Chicago
John Cogan, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
John Coleman, Duke University
Boyd Collier, Tarleton State University
Robert Collinge, Univ. of Texas at San Antonio
Lee Coppock, Univ. of Virginia
Mario Crucini, Vanderbilt University
Christopher Culp, Univ. of Chicago
Kirby Cundiff, Northeastern State University
Antony Davies, Duquesne University
John Dawson, Appalachian State University
Clarence Deitsch, Ball State University
Arthur Diamond, Jr., Univ. of Nebraska at Omaha
John Dobra, Univ. of Nevada, Reno
James Dorn, Towson University
Christopher Douglas, Univ. of Michigan, Flint
Floyd Duncan, Virginia Military Institute
Francis Egan, Trinity College
John Egger, Towson University
Kenneth Elzinga, Univ. of Virginia
Paul Evans, Ohio State University
Eugene Fama, Univ. of Chicago
W. Ken Farr, Georgia College & State University
Hartmut Fischer, Univ. of San Francisco
Fred Foldvary, Santa Clara University
Murray Frank, Univ. of Minnesota
Peter Frank, Wingate University
Timothy Fuerst, Bowling Green State University
B. Delworth Gardner, Brigham Young University
John Garen, Univ. of Kentucky
Rick Geddes, Cornell University
Aaron Gellman, Northwestern University
William Gerdes, Clarke College
Michael Gibbs, Univ. of Chicago
Stephan Gohmann, Univ. of Louisville
Rodolfo Gonzalez, San Jose State University
Richard Gordon, Penn State University
Peter Gordon, Univ. of Southern California
Ernie Goss, Creighton University
Paul Gregory, Univ. of Houston
Earl Grinols, Baylor University
Daniel Gropper, Auburn University
R.W. Hafer, Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville
Arthur Hall, Univ. of Kansas
Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins
Stephen Happel, Arizona State University
Frank Hefner, College of Charleston
Ronald Heiner, George Mason University
David Henderson, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Robert Herren, North Dakota State University
Gailen Hite, Columbia University
Steven Horwitz, St. Lawrence University
John Howe, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia
Jeffrey Hummel, San Jose State University
Bruce Hutchinson, Univ. of Tennessee at Chattanooga
Brian Jacobsen, Wisconsin Lutheran College
Jason Johnston, Univ. of Pennsylvania
Boyan Jovanovic, New York University
Jonathan Karpoff, Univ. of Washington
Barry Keating, Univ. of Notre Dame
Naveen Khanna, Michigan State University
Nicholas Kiefer, Cornell University
Daniel Klein, George Mason University
Paul Koch, Univ. of Kansas
Narayana Kocherlakota, Univ. of Minnesota
Marek Kolar, Delta College
Roger Koppl, Fairleigh Dickinson University
Kishore Kulkarni, Metropolitan State College of Denver
Deepak Lal, UCLA
George Langelett, South Dakota State University
James Larriviere, Spring Hill College
Robert Lawson, Auburn University
John Levendis, Loyola University New Orleans
David Levine, Washington University in St. Louis
Peter Lewin, Univ. of Texas at Dallas
Dean Lillard, Cornell University
Zheng Liu, Emory University
Alan Lockard, Binghampton University
Edward Lopez, San Jose State University
John Lunn, Hope College
Glenn MacDonald, Washington
University in St. Louis
Michael Marlow, California
Polytechnic State University
Deryl Martin, Tennessee Tech University
Dale Matcheck, Northwood University
Deirdre McCloskey, Univ. of Illinois, Chicago
John McDermott, Univ. of South Carolina
Joseph McGarrity, Univ. of Central Arkansas
Roger Meiners, Univ. of Texas at Arlington
Allan Meltzer, Carnegie Mellon University
John Merrifield, Univ. of Texas at San Antonio
James Miller III, George Mason University
Jeffrey Miron, Harvard University
Thomas Moeller, Texas Christian University
John Moorhouse, Wake Forest University
Andrea Moro, Vanderbilt University
Andrew Morriss, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Michael Munger, Duke University
Kevin Murphy, Univ. of Southern California
Richard Muth, Emory University
Charles Nelson, Univ. of Washington
Seth Norton, Wheaton College
Lee Ohanian, Univ. of California, Los Angeles
Lydia Ortega, San Jose State University
Evan Osborne, Wright State University
Randall Parker, East Carolina University
Donald Parsons, George Washington University
Sam Peltzman, Univ. of Chicago
Mark Perry, Univ. of Michigan, Flint
Christopher Phelan, Univ. of Minnesota
Gordon Phillips, Univ. of Maryland
Michael Pippenger, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks
Tomasz Piskorski, Columbia University
Brennan Platt, Brigham Young University
Joseph Pomykala, Towson University
William Poole, Univ. of Delaware
Barry Poulson, Univ. of Colorado at Boulder
Benjamin Powell, Suffolk University
Edward Prescott, Nobel laureate
Gary Quinlivan, Saint Vincent College
Reza Ramazani, Saint Michael's College
Adriano Rampini, Duke University
Eric Rasmusen, Indiana University
Mario Rizzo, New York University
Richard Roll, Univ. of California, Los Angeles
Robert Rossana, Wayne State University
James Roumasset, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa
John Rowe, Univ. of South Florida
Charles Rowley, George Mason University
Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Duke University
Roy Ruffin, Univ. of Houston
Kevin Salyer, Univ. of California, Davis
Pavel Savor, Univ. of Pennsylvania
Ronald Schmidt, Univ. of Rochester
Carlos Seiglie, Rutgers University
William Shughart II, Univ. of Mississippi
Charles Skipton, Univ. of Tampa
James Smith, Western Carolina University
Vernon Smith, Nobel laureate
Lawrence Southwick, Jr., Univ. at Buffalo
Dean Stansel, Florida Gulf Coast University
Houston Stokes, Univ. of Illinois at Chicago
Brian Strow, Western Kentucky University
Shirley Svorny, California State
University, Northridge
John Tatom, Indiana State University
Wade Thomas, State University of New York at Oneonta
Henry Thompson, Auburn University
Alex Tokarev, The King's College
Edward Tower, Duke University
Leo Troy, Rutgers University
David Tuerck, Suffolk University
Charlotte Twight, Boise State University
Kamal Upadhyaya, Univ. of New Haven
Charles Upton, Kent State University
T. Norman Van Cott, Ball State University
Richard Vedder, Ohio University
Richard Wagner, George Mason University
Douglas M. Walker, College of Charleston
Douglas O. Walker, Regent University
Christopher Westley, Jacksonville State University
Lawrence White, Univ. of Missouri at St. Louis
Walter Williams, George Mason University
Doug Wills, Univ. of Washington Tacoma
Dennis Wilson, Western Kentucky University
Gary Wolfram, Hillsdale College
Huizhong Zhou, Western Michigan University
Lee Adkins, Oklahoma State University
William Albrecht, Univ. of Iowa
Donald Alexander, Western Michigan University
Geoffrey Andron, Austin Community College
Nathan Ashby, Univ. of Texas at El Paso
George Averitt, Purdue North Central University
Charles Baird, California State University, East Bay
Timothy Bastian, Creighton University
John Bethune, Barton College
Robert Bise, Orange Coast College
Karl Borden, University of Nebraska
Donald Boudreaux, George Mason University
Ivan Brick, Rutgers University
Phil Bryson, Brigham Young University
Richard Burkhauser, Cornell University
Jim Butkiewicz, Univ. of Delaware
Richard Cebula, Armstrong Atlantic State University
Don Chance, Louisiana State University
Robert Chatfield, Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas
Lloyd Cohen, George Mason University
Peter Colwell, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Michael Connolly, Univ. of Miami
Jim Couch, Univ. of North Alabama
Eleanor Craig, Univ. of Delaware
Michael Daniels, Columbus State University
A. Edward Day, Univ. of Texas at Dallas
Stephen Dempsey, Univ. of Vermont
Allan DeSerpa, Arizona State University
William Dewald, Ohio State University
Jeff Dorfman, Univ. of Georgia
Lanny Ebenstein, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara
Michael Erickson, The College of Idaho
Jack Estill, San Jose State University
Dorla Evans, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville
Frank Falero, California State University, Bakersfield
Daniel Feenberg, National Bureau of Economic Research
Eric Fisher, California Polytechnic State University
William Ford, Middle Tennessee State University
Ralph Frasca, Univ. of Dayton
Joseph Giacalone, St. John's University
Adam Gifford, California State Unviersity, Northridge
Otis Gilley, Louisiana Tech University
J. Edward Graham, University of North Carolina at Wilmington
Richard Grant, Lipscomb University
Gauri-Shankar Guha, Arkansas State University
Darren Gulla, Univ. of Kentucky
Dennis Halcoussis, California State University, Northridge
Richard Hart, Miami University
James Hartley, Mount Holyoke College
Thomas Hazlett, George Mason University
Scott Hein, Texas Tech University
John Hoehn, Michigan State University
Daniel Houser, George Mason University
Thomas Howard, University of Denver
Chris Hughen, Univ. of Denver
Marcus Ingram, Univ. of Tampa
Joseph Jadlow, Oklahoma State University
Sherry Jarrell, Wake Forest University
Robert Krol, California State University, Northridge
James Kurre, Penn State Erie
Tom Lehman, Indiana Wesleyan University
W. Cris Lewis, Utah State University
Stan Liebowitz, Univ. of Texas at Dallas
Anthony Losasso, Univ. of Illinois at Chicago
John Lott, Jr., Univ. of Maryland
Keith Malone, Univ. of North Alabama
Henry Manne, George Mason University
Richard Marcus, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Timothy Mathews, Kennesaw State University
John Matsusaka, Univ. of Southern California
Thomas Mayor, Univ. of Houston
W. Douglas McMillin, Louisiana State University
Mario Miranda, The Ohio State University
Ed Miseta, Penn State Erie
James Moncur, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa
Charles Moss, Univ. of Florida
Tim Muris, George Mason University
John Murray, Univ. of Toledo
David Mustard, Univ. of Georgia
Steven Myers, Univ. of Akron
Dhananjay Nanda, University of Miami
Stephen Parente, Univ. of Minnesota
Douglas Patterson, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and University
Timothy Perri, Appalachian State University
Mark Pingle, Univ. of Nevada, Reno
Richard Rawlins, Missouri Southern State University
Thomas Rhee, California State University, Long Beach
Christine Ries, Georgia Institute of Technology
Nancy Roberts, Arizona State University
Larry Ross, Univ. of Alaska Anchorage
Timothy Roth, Univ. of Texas at El Paso
Atulya Sarin, Santa Clara University
Thomas Saving, Texas A&M University
Eric Schansberg, Indiana University Southeast
Alan Shapiro, Univ. of Southern California
Frank Spreng, McKendree University
Judith Staley Brenneke, John Carroll University
John E. Stapleford, Eastern University
Courtenay Stone, Ball State University
Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, UCLA
Scott Sumner, Bentley University
Clifford Thies, Shenandoah University
William Trumbull, West Virginia University
Gustavo Ventura, Univ. of Iowa
Marc Weidenmier, Claremont McKenna College
Robert Whaples, Wake Forest University
Gene Wunder, Washburn University
John Zdanowicz, Florida International University
Jerry Zimmerman, Univ. of Rochester
Joseph Zoric, Franciscan University of Steubenville
www.cato.org/special/s.../
our municipalities. McCain's doesn't pass, as it will only enrich the already rich....as usual.
an eye opener.
We have been borrowing to live since the 80's. That is why David Stockman got in hot water for questioning Reagonomics.
Sincerely, Poor Dudess
On Feb 07 07:05 PM Poor Dude wrote:
> America has become a subprime borrower. In light of what has happened
> to everybody with real estate, who is going to lend to us? Not being
> a student of world finance, I'm not sure what happens when a country
> that must borrow to live can no longer borrow. But I suspect it's
> not pretty for its citizens. How do we protect ourselves? Buy gold?
I don't think so...
Our professional politicians have ruined our society with the help received from those who don't take responsibility for their own actions (help me government for I an an idiot). Sorry if I'm ranting, but listening to the crap coming out of Congress's collective mouths is just getting more bizarre every day.