Canaccord: Three New iPhones Expected in 2009

Three new iPhones could be coming in 2009. The first is a 32G iPhone in multiple colours that is likely to arrive during the next six months. Next up is a lower-cost handset based on the 2.5G iPhone, which is targeted for China and India. Third is a smaller version – about one-third the size of the 3G iPhone – that costs 40% less and is also likely before year-end.

These predictions are the result of recent checks with carrier partners by Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek, who noted that carriers believe the smaller iPhone could have a $99 price point.

As far as rumours of a possible voice-only iPhone, the analyst said the likelihood of such a device is low because the entire premise of the iPhone is as a platform for data. The economics of such a device also look challenging assuming an iTouch with a voice-only chip, which suggests it would have to be given away for free.

He also said a voice-centric device would contain a key pad not a touch-screen and this would squander Apple’s (AAPL) application store and iTunes.

So while Mr. Misek expects a healthy iPhone refresh cycle this year, he said it is too early to include very much upside in his formal estimates and near-term outlook for Apple shares.

“iPhone volumes continue to decelerate based on our recent checks,” he told clients, adding that Mac volumes are also likely trending below expectations.

The analyst is also concerned by the broader spending environment “as repairs to the consumer balance sheet have much further to go...”

As a result, Canaccord continues to rate Apple a “hold” with a US$90 price target.

Comments

[another.ana...:]

"“iPhone volumes continue to decelerate based on our recent checks" he told clients."

Really, who'd he call his brother-in-law, his mother, or most likely his employer---one of the hedge fund yo-yo's paying him the show FUD on AAPL w/o a shred of evidence.

Ayuh

Feb 06 07:03 AM

[Vox Rationalis:]

Anybody who assumes iPhone sales are NOT decelerating doesn't have a clue about product cycles. Why would anybody even question this premise? It's not even a ding against Apple - it's just the way things work.

Last year Q3 - 6.9M.
Last year Q4 - 4.3M.

Feb 06 07:41 AM

[kirasaw:]

While I think it is possible for there to be 3 new iPhones this year I believe you got it wrong. First will be an update of the current iPhone with more memory and new firmware with new features. Second will be a smaller less powerful iPhone for China - India - and underdeveloped counties markets and third will be the "Mac Pro" of the iPhone - an iPhone pro will be very expensive but very powerful also. Multicore and extreme graphics with larger memory and upgraded features. The Mac Pro is a great pro computer but is basically more than the majority of users need, What the Mac Pro does is get people to buy the iMac because they want a Mac Pro but can't justify the price so they buy an iMac. The iPhone Pro will fill the same niche, phone buyers will lust for the Pro but buy the iPhone so as to be in the same family. Over time the more advanced features and hardware will filter down to the iPhone as the Pro gets the latest and greatest. It's Apple marketing plain and simple.

Feb 06 10:59 AM

[mollytjm:]

i don't understand a voice only iphone...i use it in movie theaters waiting for the movie to start (then turn it off!) and in situations where i wouldn't want to be talking. i turn the volume way down so even the 'key's don't click.
as to sales, it is AFTER Christmas...people are paying their card charges. one reason Apple unhitched from Macworld is that January is sort of a deadzone for sales and Apple wants to release products into buying seasons.
also, people who still are on contracts, or get free phones and contracts at the workplace (lots) are buying the iTouch, so some of those purchases are really from people who want the OTHER functions of the iPhone and should probably be put together with the iPhone purchases.
All in all, Apple is making piles of $$$ and will continue to grow market share.

Feb 06 11:03 AM

[Timeline St...:]

Peter Misek and his ridiculous channel checks. I wipe my a&* with Peter Misek's channel checks for iPhone. Here's why.

Sales of iPhone from Oct'08 through 27-Dec-08 (Apple's Q1'09) totaled 4.36 million. That was a reduction of 2.54 million iPhones over Apple's Q4'08, which had excessive sales due to the pent-up demand for the introduction of the 3G version, as well as channel loading. Apple completely emptied the channels of the first generation iPhone prior to the 3G intro.

Follow this now. Web share by Operating System for December indicate that the iPhone OS had 0.44% of page views on the entire internet. That's the baseline, with 17.36 million devices in the field. (For this metric, iPod Touch shows as a different OS.)

January's share number went to 0.48%, an increase of 9%. This implies - and these extrapolations have been remarkably accurate thus far - that the total number of iPhones increased by 9%, logically. That would mean 9% of 17.36 million, or 1.58 million.

1.58 million in January implies a Q2'09 run rate of 4.74 million, which is well more than were sold in Q1'09.

Peter Misek, you miserable wench, you have been wrong constantly and you are wrong now. Go shill some more for RIM, you a**wipe.

Feb 06 11:36 AM

[The Muffin Man:]

BS Detector,

now who hasn't got a clue here?

Apple had about 2 milion iPhones in the pipeline ( from the September quarter) which they cleared in the December quarter, and they didn't show up in the sales statistic
So your figures, though technically correct, don't 'count' so to speak.

I believe that sales of the iPhone are holding strong, despite the depression, and, incidentally, those of the 'touch' are soaring beyond Apple's wildest dreams. Sales of the 'touch' have already overtaken those of the iPhone. This is why the AppStore is booming. It's not just the iPhone but both of them together

Feb 06 11:57 AM

[reagan:]

Wow, $90 price target. What an idiot!

Feb 06 12:59 PM

[Vox Rationalis:]

The muffin man wrote: "Apple had about 2 milion iPhones in the pipeline ( from the September quarter) which they cleared in the December quarter, and they didn't show up in the sales statistic..."

Yep, I must have no clue, because it seems to me that you're saying Apple's not comparing apples to apples (so to speak) in their last two financial filings. Is that what you're saying?

Feb 06 01:34 PM

[AGuysOpinion:]

You can't form a view on yr/yr growth rate based on a sequential sales comparison when the decline is impacted by seasonality


On Feb 06 07:41 AM BS Detector wrote:

> Anybody who assumes iPhone sales are NOT decelerating doesn't have
> a clue about product cycles. Why would anybody even question this
> premise? It's not even a ding against Apple - it's just the way
> things work.
>
> Last year Q3 - 6.9M.
> Last year Q4 - 4.3M.

Feb 06 02:14 PM

[Arnold Rein...:]

Don't forget all those iPhone gift boxes Apple sold in December. It's hard to give an iPhone to someone because they have to sign up for the data plan in person, so Apple made up gift boxes that had cards inside that the recipient can exchange for the phone itself. Apple sold a lot of these but only those converted to phones in the week after Christmas would show up in the last quarter's sales numbers.

Feb 06 03:05 PM

[realitybytes:]

Wait, I'm about to have a "Misek Insight" into Apple...
Give me a minute to get off the toilet and I'll publish it for you...

Feb 06 03:34 PM

[Vox Rationalis:]

On Feb 06 02:14 PM AGuysOpinion wrote:

> You can't form a view on yr/yr growth rate based on a sequential
> sales comparison when the decline is impacted by seasonality

Who said anything about year-over-year growth, and how could anybody think year-over-year sales of a tech gadget is more meaningful than sequential growth?

Feb 06 05:13 PM

[Vox Rationalis:]

On Feb 06 03:05 PM Arnold Reinhold wrote:
> Don't forget all those iPhone gift boxes Apple sold in December.
> It's hard to give an iPhone to someone because they have to sign
> up for the data plan in person, so Apple made up gift boxes that
> had cards inside that the recipient can exchange for the phone itself.
> Apple sold a lot of these but only those converted to phones in the
> week after Christmas would show up in the last quarter's sales numbers.

I don't think so. These are iPhone sales where delivery hasn't yet been taken. Take a look at the financials - there's nowhere for these sales to hide.

Feb 06 05:25 PM

[Doug, Mtn. ...:]

I am constantly astonished at morons like this who think that Apple, or anyone else, can just knock out three phones (snap!) like that. Do these asshats have any idea how difficult it is to get one phone certified, much less three? It's one thing to introduce 3 iPods in a 6 month period, but 3 iPhones? Apple's good ("great," actually), but not that great.

Not to mention timing. Apple has been consistent in the last few years: iPhones in June. iPods in September. (Macs .... whenever.) Why would Apple depart from their enormously successful rollout strategy? Hint: any cell phone makes a lousy Christmas present for most people --- it comes with monthly payments.

And why? Why would Apple introduce these products, as described? What separates each from the others? Steve Jobs has ALWAYS offered a sparse product line to avoid customer confusion. Now he gets the hair up his butt to flood the market with 3 phone models that all do pretty much the same thing and with features that break his App Store business model? How stupid are you?

This speculation is perhaps the dumbest I have read in the past 12 months.

Feb 06 05:27 PM

[reverie:]

BS Detector,

You cannot use Apple financials 1:1 to determine the company's business performance. Here's one example why (another example would be subscription accounting):

In Q3, Apple sold 6.9 million iPhone 3Gs into the channel. Of those, 4.9 million were sold/sold on to consumers. Apple started the quarter with 0 iPhone inventory in the channel, it ended the quarter with 2 million in the channel.

In Q4, Apple sold 4.3 million iPhone 3Gs into the channel, while 4.6 million units were sold to consumers. During the quarter, Apple reduced channel inventory from 2 million to 1.75 million. The channel inventory figures were revealed by Tim Cook on the respective quarterly investor briefings.

So, in terms of performance on the market, iPhone 3G reached consumers in these volumes:

Q3 - 4.9 million
Q4 - 4.6 million

iPhone demand therefore was flat. Disappointingly so for a Christmas quarter. However, there is so far no reliable data that suggests dropping iPhone sales. If you look back at last year you can actually see that iPhone sales improved in the winter vs. the preceding summer (2007).

Feb 10 11:52 AM