We have written in the past about the delays in Microsoft’s next Windows upgrade, Vista. Many investors were counting on the Vista upgrade cycle to give tech spending a boost in late 2006/early 2007. That has been delayed, and according to Personal Computer World, investors aren’t the only ones being affected.
The greater technology requirements of Microsoft’s Vista operating system was seen by some at Computex as the great hope that will kick start component and PC sales.
Although talk centred more around Intel’s upcoming Core 2 Duo Conroe and Merom processors, and to a lesser extend AMD’s AM2 update, Vista was still considered an important reason that many are stalling their buying decisions.
Furthermore, although Vista will be available early next year, most businesses are likely to delay installing it until the first service pack is released, which will fix most of the major bugs and vulnerabilities. Many consultants are recommending that enterprise (large business) customers wait until 2008 to upgrade.
That could cause a very nice mini-cycle since it would be 4-5 years after the 2003-2004 upgrade cycle, which in turn replaced aging systems bought ahead of the Y2K scare. But in the meantime, it could be very lean times indeed for PCs, semiconductors and related industries.
MSFT 1-yr chart: