How CNBC Squandered Roubini and Taleb 44 comments
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CNBC had what could have been phenomenal business television yesterday when they managed to get Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Nicolas Taleb on for a double segment. They billed it as Dr. Doom and Black Swan.
Unfortunately it was mostly squandered. Whatever you think of either one of them, they have contributed a stream of consciousness to the current crisis (Roubini more economic, Taleb more philosophical). To the extent they have been useful to anyone, we are at a certain point between the beginning and the end of the crisis and the greatest benefit now comes from their assessment of where things are now, along with some investment philosophy. That is these guys' A-game.
Robin Farzad was on there and asked a ridiculous question about how to invest a college fund for a newborn. Michelle Caruso Cabrera devoted about 30 seconds to a monologue that their status as "rock stars" could be sign of a bottom. Someone else asked if there was anything to the financials being up today (Monday). Dennis Kneale was asking square-one questions, thus preventing the dialogue from advancing beyond elementary. I gather from what I have read from Taleb that he has a lot of disdain for this sort of thing; I doubt anything about yesterday changed his mind.
A couple of things that emerged are that Roubini thinks a bottom might come sometime in 2010, which is not that far away in terms of time, but in terms of price he thinks another 20% down from here. Taleb said we haven't even started deleveraging, a lot of private equity will go out of business, but I did not hear him quantify what he thought the decline in equity prices would be or the time needed for this to all play out.
As opposed to investing advice, I would have rather heard more about Taleb's philosophy on investing. They got into it a little, but there were a lot of interruptions. From Roubini I would have liked to have heard a little more detail on what he thinks is going on currently, and maybe a couple of if/then scenarios about what is being proposed and what he thinks should be done. Instead, we learned that both of them have a large allocation to cash.
As I started to write this, I did not intend it to be a rant. I get plenty of utility from watching CNBC in terms of straight news. For years I have spent more of my reading time on more opinion-oriented commentary as opposed to straight news because of the network. This is a tremendous time saver. An example of this that I have used before is the car companies. I have never owned a car company and doubt I ever will. I don't need every last detail, I just need to be in touch with the story. When something comes up that I hear about on the network that I need to read more about, I can seek that out later.
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"Bill Gates and Michael Dell waited in line for hours" to hear Roubini and Taleb speak. Does anyone believe this?
Also, Griffeth interrupted the guests and interfered with the normal flow of conversation much more than the other jounalists.
That may be considered a "mental block" by the mentally blocked, Mr. Wide Moat, but it is simply a very real probability that has not been widely considered probable. I see, within the next three years, the most significant global political shift since the COLD WAR. European countries such as Greece, Italy, Austria and Belgium will elect will elect highly nationalistic governments that may break from the euro, and if not, initiate policies that will have them excommunicated from the EU. Russia, out of fear of internal disruption, will lash out at its neighbors, China will refocus it resources on breakaway regions. Euro-peace friendly neighbors will clash on policies, and turn inward. Many countries will turn to gold based currencies...the next bubble.
No one will read this, this far down the comment line, but it is just a response, to the comment that got my goat.
"Black swans represent mental blocks--things that we cannot cognize because of our habits of seeing the world." BY WIDE MOAT
On Feb 10 04:19 PM Wide Moat wrote:
>
I second the notion that reminds us that a black swan is not knowable ahead of time. Crucial point of understanding. Protecting, some, against the unknown is not that difficult ( a little gold for example) but even that is not a guarantee.
As for the Bill Griffith comment, let's say that was true (Dell and Gates) all the more reason to just let them go to it. "So guys, recreate as much of your presentation as you can in the next 20 minutes.
Over time, I discovered some sources were friendly, some were indifferent, and some were highly hostile. I have interviewed people from various regions, America, Asia, and Europe. Some were from communist countries. My methods were adjusted to meet these different types of people but I always maintained by cool. I never used a shrill voice and never gave any information or my opinion. My goal was to be stoic and convey no emotion by body or facial action. Occasionally my interviews would become an integration due to the mind set of the subject. I tried to take the high ground, looking for the carrot and the stick to be used on each subject, but I never did anything I would object being done to me.
Use Hannity as an example, he takes thirty seconds to give his opinion in the form of a question and then gives the guest ten seconds to answer before he interrupts. My questions start with an interrogative, what, where, when, who, and how. If Hannity were to interview me, many of his question would be answered with yes, absolutely, and probably and he may not care. He is there to give his answer and yours does not really matter. Multiple questions allow only one answer, the second question is forgotten. My RN wife wonders how I can ask such personal questions and she talks to patients about ED. Where are the investigative reporters of today? Do current journalist schools even have a class in how to ask questions these days? It is all about TV, your hair and makeup.
They need 2 less people in that time slot. The invention of the 'octobox' was a huge mistake by network execs. Now they want multiple people screaming over each other....
bloomberg.com has some video content. I go there every night. Roubini is on there frequently, 15 min interviews, no ads or interruptions. Awesome.
How is that for a downside forecast? down 90% just like GD 1.0
What the CNBC morons did is the same reason that I stopped watching "Fast Money". Dildo Ratgut never let a guest finish a sentence.
> But he bets on such events, and creates scenarios on those probabilities.
> For example, Taleb appears to be currently betting on the REAL probability
> of significant global social and political upheaval.This may be considered
> a BLACK SWAN EVENT, but it is in true terms, a reality that the investi-telligencia
> has yet to appreciate.
>
I think that we agree Mr. Caravaggio. You can set yourself up to benefit from Black Swans, or at least, to limit your harm from them. Taleb has done this well.
But I have seen Taleb get very irritable when people ask him to 'predict' the next one.
But for our purposes, you can know when you're thinking on the right track when your black swan 'prediction' causes people to scoff and call you crazy. E.g., arguing that China will corner the gold market and unload its T-Bonds, the pound will go the way of the Krona, etc.
Shortly after the attack at Bombay, Alex Witt commented, paraphrasing:one would have thought that since Obama had been elected, these types of attacks would stop.
Naive in the extreme.
On Feb 10 02:42 PM caravaggio wrote:
> CNBC's interview was a truly pathetic piece of journalism, credit
> to Roubini and Taleb for not calling the CNBC panel a bunch of ass-clowns
> and walking out. How about asking what black swan scenarios, positive
> & negative , that Taleb has for the future? Ask Roubini to proffer
> the downsides and costs to bank nationalization that he proposes.
>
>
> Cabrera is is shallow barker, who belongs on FOX news, Kneale a punching
> bag, and Farzad's children should be banned from any reputable college.
i SAW THIS "INTERVIEW," HAD THE SAME HOPES FOR IT AS YOU, AND WAS JUST AS COMPLETELY DISAPPOINTED AS YOU WERE.
Expectations, huh! If I'd've grown up in the 80's or 90's maybe i'd not've had an expectation of civility, intelligence, and general maturity. Alas, I keep forgetting, and hope. To no avail. Those network hacks with their earpiece monitor feeds are a joke. What fools to squander the opportunity to get the message out from these men, who in these times, really are SAGES. Thanks Newt and O'Reilly and Rush! I've always sadly noted that it's the biggest troublemaker in the classrooom who makes all the other kids look not so bad. Fact is, many of these "newscasters" are really just talking heads set in motion to rouse passions they call "news" in quotes, when it's really defined as "opinion" or worse, "entertainment." What do they say, bad publicity is better than no publicity. There's a metaphor in there somewhere and it applies as well to here....