The Great Awakening: Boomers, Your Crisis Has Arrived (Part 3 of 3) 113 comments
February 11, 2009
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Winter of Our Discontent
We enter 2009 and the Presidency of Barack Obama with citizens pessimistic about the future of our country. The public has lost faith in government, financial institutions, and religious institutions. Distrust of politicians, bankers, CEO’s, financial advisors, and moral leadership is well founded. The popular culture of over hyping public figures and then tearing them down has led to everyone and everything being discredited. The personal and public choices that will be required in the next few years will be harsh. Moral courage and leadership is what is needed. As I watch the likes of Barney Frank, Nancy Pelosi, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity work their rhetorical magic, it is clear that we have a major deficit in wisdom, courage and leadership. Instead of analyzing how we got here and how we want the country to be in ten years, when this crisis has past, we are focused only on specific right wing or left wing agendas and how to position ourselves for the next election cycle. The short sightedness of our current leadership will lead to the next more dangerous phase of this crisis.
Congress will pass a stimulus bill with wave pools, Frisbee golf courses, digital TV coupons, tax incentives to borrow money and buy houses and cars, and billions more of pork in the next week. The bill is being sold as an infrastructure bill despite the fact that only 5% of the bill is for infrastructure. President Obama will sign it. The second helping of TARP will be dished out to banks, insurance companies, automakers, and people who bought more house than they could afford. It is tough to predict what will happen in the next week, let alone the next decade. Here is my best guess:
- The stimulus bill will grow to $900 billion (this is how Senators & Representatives compromise) and be passed on party lines, with virtual Democratic Senators Specter and Collins showing their true colors and providing the deciding votes. President Obama will use fear tactics, convincing the non-thinkers that inhabit most of America that not passing this bloated pig of a bill will result in a permanent Depression. I’d love to find out which economists told him this would happen. Every dime of this stimulus package will be borrowed from foreign countries and be paid for by increased taxes on future generations. An unfunded tax decrease or spending increase is a tax increase for our children and grandchildren.
- Timothy Geithner, our TurboTax expert Treasury Secretary, will introduce the sixth variation of the TARP program since we were told it had to be done to save the world from collapse. It will not do what needs to be done. Smoke and mirrors will not pay off debt. The bankrupt financial institutions and corporations (Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), General Motors (GM), Chrysler) must be put into receivership and their shareholders wiped out. Good banks should take over from bad banks. Corporations with sound management and viable business plans should prosper. Corporations that sell every product at a loss, financed by its subsidiary at a further loss, must go out of business.
- We are in the midst of a Global recession. Every country in the world is decreasing its interest rates, trying to devalue their currency, protecting domestic businesses, and subsidizing domestic employment. Every politician on the planet is playing to their constituents with protectionist rhetoric and actions. There are Buy American clauses in the stimulus package. French President Sarkozy has been ratcheting up protectionist ideas. Calling your biggest lender a currency manipulator months before you will need to borrow an additional $2 trillion is probably not a bright idea. Our new Treasury Secretary did just that last week. Protectionist measures will lead to retaliation and a worsening global economy.
- The Federal Reserve has doubled their balance sheet in the last year. They’ve done this by printing $1 trillion. They will double their balance sheet again if that is what it takes to generate inflation. They have bought toxic assets from banks but will not reveal the banks or assets they’ve bought, to the public. They work for taxpayers, not vice versa. Pundits on CNBC casually say that the Fed can just print money and everything will be OK. Their words prove that the Federal Reserve System is just the BIGGEST PONZI SCHEME ever perpetrated on the U.S. public by bankers in conspiracy with government. The Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke did not see this crisis coming. He thought we had a strong housing market, when any impartial observer, such as Robert Shiller, proved that we were three standard deviations too high. Mr. Bernanke will succeed in igniting inflation. He will not see it coming and as a political animal, will not pull the punch bowl away before the party gets going. Inflation will get out of control within three years.
- The annual deficit for 2009 will exceed $2 trillion. The government bean counters haven’t realized that people without jobs don’t pay taxes and companies with no profits don’t pay taxes. When you bring in less tax income, increase spending, and send out tax rebates to all Americans, deficits tend to rise. In the next two years the National Debt will exceed $15 trillion. GDP is headed in the opposite direction and will drop below $14 trillion in 2009. At this rate of increase, we’ll be approaching the debt to GDP ratio of 120% reached during WW II by the end of the Obama Presidency. This increase in debt combined with the enormous printing of dollars by the Federal Reserve will drive the value of the dollar down. The only question is whether it will go down slowly or violently.
- The U.S. has been dependent on Japan, China, and the Oil exporting countries to purchase our debt in the last ten years. Japan has entered recession and will need to stimulate their economy. Social unrest is growing as factories shut down in China. The government has begun domestic stimulus programs and will need more. Oil revenues have dropped 70% in the last year for the oil exporting countries. With their own domestic issues and U.S. Treasuries yielding 3% to 3.5% and U.S. annual funding needs of $2 trillion, demand is likely to wane. The only possibility is dramatically higher rates. High interest rates devastate a heavily indebted country.
- Oil prices below $40 a barrel will lead to a deepening of this crisis in the not too distant future. At these prices it is no longer profitable to develop alternative fuels and search for new supply. Rigs are being shutdown, deepwater projects canceled, shale and oil sands projects being delayed, and natural gas exploration dramatically scaled back. The fact remains that the world has reached peak oil supply. The Saudi wells are 50 years old and are depleting rapidly. Mexico’s Cantarall oil field is in rapid decline and Mexico, the supplier of 12% of U.S. supply, will become a net importer in five years. The drastic decline in oil revenue will further exacerbate social unrest in a country on our border. The complete lack of a comprehensive energy plan will result in oil prices exceeding $200 a barrel in the next five years. Politicians will blame oil companies and the Arab countries, further alienating us from the world.
- The Military Industrial Complex will grow stronger. We have no intentions of leaving Iraq and we will double our presence in Afghanistan. The Defense (should be called Offense) budget will increase. We will be told that the Russian threat is growing. We will be told that China has aggressive intentions and that Iran threatens the Middle East. The public will go along because they don’t think for themselves. We will be told that the Defense industry generates American jobs. As the government identifies false threats, they will take away more rights and liberties in the name of protecting us. It will be gradual and almost unnoticeable to the Average American, but it is happening. A stronger more powerful Military will want to prove itself. They will be itching for action. When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
- Boomer leaders are always sure, and often wrong. They are dogmatic and cocky. They utter the words catastrophe, without specifying what will happen if you don’t follow their plan. They say that we will enter a permanent decline if we don’t spend our way out of a situation that was caused by spending too much. Boomer followers are so shallow and self involved that they will put reason aside and believe that we can spend our way out of this. The easy sound bite solution is what they are looking for. The word sacrifice does not exist in their vocabulary. The well being of future generations is of no interest to them. The day trading, house flipping, BMW driving Boomers are looking for the next big thing. The danger is that the next big thing could be a major war. They are too old to fight, but they are not too old to send others to their death.
- The stimulus package and TARP 6 plan will be implemented. The economy will not improve. By the Fall, Obama and the Democratic led Congress will push through trillions more in spending. The dollar will continue to fall versus gold. As the deficits grow and foreigners buy less and less of our debt, interest rates will rise. Oil will gradually rise as long as no external event causes it to spike. Protectionism will increase, leading to declining world trade. When we have not pulled out of this downturn in 2010, people will realize we are in a Depression and politicians have lied to them again. Social unrest will grow. Riots are likely to break out in poor urban areas. Governments always react to internal strife by seeking an external threat.
- The external threat could be anything. Russia could invade Ukraine. Israel could attack Iran. When oil reaches $200 a barrel, disputes over drilling rights in the Arctic with Russia or China could cause a confrontation. Oil is the lifeblood of our society. If major shortages occur in the U.S. it would bring the country to a grinding halt. The panic would be so drastic that our Leaders will use every means at their disposal to get more oil. With the most powerful military on the planet at their disposal, and itching for a fight, our Leaders will manufacture a reason to go to war in order to secure oil supplies. The problem with waging a major war is that you need troops to sacrifice. The volunteer army will not do. When the government tries to reinstitute the draft, the fabric of this country will be torn to shreds. This will be where I get off this merry-go-round ride.
- In ten years my sons will be 25, 22, and 20. They will not be sacrificing their lives for oil, bankers, corrupt politicians, and Defense industry CEOs. If I see the future developing as I fear, I will move my family out of this country to a place where individual liberties are respected, sound fiscal policy is practiced, and people can live in peace. I don’t know if that place exists, but I’ll be looking.
The good news is that every modern Crisis has been followed by a new High. Of course, in every modern U.S. Crisis we had a strong leader. Will Barack Obama be that strong leader? If no strong wise leader emerges, could we follow the path of the Roman Empire? Can we as individuals change the course of history? I don’t know the answers to these questions. It is up to each of us to analyze the facts and act accordingly. A recent song by The Fray, "You Found Me," asks the question we will all need to answer.
Where were you
When everything was falling apart?
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This article has 113 comments:
A freshman student of statistics could crush this garbage.
cyclingscholar
Having never matured enough to make the transition from liberal to conservative thinking, Boomers will lead America into a declining twilight period like the one "old Europe" is experiencing now: declining white atheist populations; expanding ethnic religious populations; Islam rising to dominance due to rapid population growth while genderless atheist whites don't bother to reproduce.
In contrast to World War II, America will lose the current war (the smoldering, largely covert global jihad) because Boomers would rather hug and discuss than fight. Boomers cannot support a culturally shared love of home and love of national character, which carried the US and Britain to victory in WW II.
Nobody will ever call Boomers "gritty" or "determined" or "honorable" or "courageous" or "noble" or "loyal" or "proud" or "bold" or "aggressive". In fact, Boomers run schools that punish boys for displaying those traits, and those are the very traits enable people to win wars and prevail during crises.
Boomers cannot allow themselves to believe that it is right to fight a war for oil or coal or land, and absolutely refuse to fight a war over a religous belief, and will ultimately lose to those who still believe that it is right to do so.
These differences cause the future to be different, too.
This is why using the past to predict the future is usually...wrong.
User 224899 is succinct. The axiom about fooling all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time rings true.
Unfortunately, too many boomers are too self-absorbed to either hear or understand. When they wake-up from their slumber it may be too late.
Let's face it, the time for sugarcoating the predicament we're in with bailouts, TARPS, stimulus plans, etc. are all digging us a deeper hole than we're already in. If we think times are tough now, just wait another 3-5 yrs. Inflation will be a bitch and whatever people are saving now in terms of dollars will get them nothing in 5 yrs. Look at the federal reserve - once that capital hits circulation, the dollar is going to be used for nothing more than kindling for heating our homes.
I understand that this article is going to rub a lot of people the wrong way. But THINK about it. Turn off your CNN for a minute and really think about the big picture - expand your thoughts and look at what the hell is going on. Read Ron Paul's "Revolution." Read Andrew Napolitano's "Nation of Sheep." Start to listen to the few thinkers left in America, and for once, maybe consider that CNN and the New York Times aren't always the basis of realism.
We all need to start looking beyond what has been fed to us for the past 50 yrs and start thinking pragmatically. For the sake of the child I am about to bring into this world, and the author's sons, that is the favor, I believe, Mr. Quinn are asking of everyone.
As a boomer born in 1946, I found some of James' generalizations about my generation applicable, and and others not so much, as is the case in all generalizations. I have also found that my generation is a rather difficult one to quantify, and as such is not really amenable to broad generalizations.
I have never lived in a McMansion; materially, I have always tried to balance my pursuit of personal goals with an awareness of my civic responsibilities and duties; rather that permissiveness, I instilled in my children and grandchildren the principle that every right carries the equal weight of responsibility, and so on...
Personally, I have always had the attitude that 'if the shoe fits, wear it; if not, let it go'. (Perhaps this also a characteristic of many in my generation!)
Yes, it is easy to criticize the boomers for the excesses of some, and just as easy to ignore the contributions and sacrifices of others.
As for leadership, we will get exactly the quality of leader we deserve. The crisis we face was of our own making, and the solution must come from us as well. Those solutions might be painful and demanding and difficult. We don't require a secular messiah; all the resources we need are really right here within ourselves!
In the past, people married earlier and didn't live as long. Generations came every twenty years as opposed to every 30 years today. Is that factored in to this formula?
What about Russia? They had hard times starting in about 1900 and, they suffered for 90 years until communism was overthrown.
Africa? Suffering now, in the past, and into the future.
Great Britain? They were the world's super power at the turn of the century, lost it after World War II, and have not recovered.
Iraq? They ruled 5000 years ago but haven't been able to make much of a dent on the world since.
No, I don't think this theory holds water. What you can say about human history is that there is struggle, success, expansion, indifference, apathy, breakdown, struggle....
The Great Generation came out of WWII with a strong desire to get married, have a family, work hard, and not be shot at. They gave birth to the Baby Boomers, a generation that is more self absorbed, has higher expectations, enjoys life, and still has some sense of values that were taught to them by their parents. The Boomers gave birth to a generation that wants it all without having to sacrifice, They expect it and are surprised when it isn't given to them. (apologies to all who are sacrificing every day like our service men and women overseas in harm's way).
Eventually hard times hit and a generation is forced into action. The survival of the crisis changes that generation and provides them with a strength that is evident to all. The material things don't matter as much. The luxurious comforts are thrown aside. Family becomes the most important priority.
We are wrapped in a crisis of great magnitude that has not even begun to have its effects on society. The streets are still safe, (mostly) there is food in the stores, and our dollars are still good. It will get worse before it gets better. But 10 years from now, it will be over. We are not doomed!
User224899,
"Never have matured enough to make the transition from liberal to conservative thinking". Isn't that just exactly what Strauss was predicting when he envisioned bitter, inflexible, "burn down the barn to kill the rats" Boomer oldsters? THAT'S conservative thinking in a vivid metaphor. "Burn down the barn!" Yep.
I guess I'm an a-typical boomer... I'm retired.... I severed my country as a Marine aviator during the Vietnam era.. I think I've paid my dues... my house is paid for.. I did without.... I don't live in a McMansion
My dad was an immigrant from Germany.... he learned how to speak English ...He instilled a work ethic in me... He served in WWII and he lost several of his brothers to the war.... he's rolling over in his grave right now...
The dumbing of America is so true....
ask people on the street if they know who Harry Reid is.... then ask them if they know who Simon Cowell (American Idol host) is... I rest my case..
I wish I could do more to turn things around... but I feel like a mosquito on a run-away elephant's ass...
And this last statement of the article is part of the reason I am in therapy. Seriously.
I was born in 1964. Some have me as the last Boomer, some as the first Gen-Xer. My father was born in 1932...part of the Silent Generation. And silent he was. I was raised to believe in God, Country, The American Dream and Capitalism.
I have seen from my birth to now a gradual degradation of all the institutions and things I was taught to believe in. I was raised Southern Baptist. I left it when I discovered we were "Southern" Baptists and not just regular Baptists because our Baptist forefathers believed in slavery as a God-given right. Plus, it has been and continues to be more or less a religious version of the Rotary club. I then became Episcapalian only to leave that church when Boomers took over and it became the religious arm of the U.N. supporting abortion, gay rights and other herectical teachings. The final straw came when my Boomer priest who I thought was conservative was kicked out when he was found to be shacking up with one of the female deacons and then leaving his wife of several decades and 18 year old son whom they had adopted from China years before.
I believed in the capitalist system until it became nothing more than a system based on indentured servitude. No more respect for the people who helped get you successful...you're now just a liability because according to this algorithm we could hire 2 young punks out of college to do the same thing and even with LESS productivity for a while save money rather than to pay your high salary and your retirement coming up in two years. Hell....we can offshore the whole damn thing to India or China. Because, after all, Wall Street demands we meet the quarter...quarter after quarter...never failing....like clockwork.
Oh yeah...not to mention these new MIT inspired algorithims which says we can cut and package mortgages like cocaine and sell them to every bank in the world along with their Credit Default Swaps and we'll never have another down year ever again.
I believed that the Republicans were the party that stood for Truth, Justice, the American Way....that they were the Party on God's side. Until I understood they were whoring so badly with Wall Street that they gave the whole country the Sexually Transmitted Disease of Socialism in the guise of Democrats.
And worst of all. WE THE PEOPLE have raised up this generation, we have taught them, we have instilled our values in them, and yes we have even voted for them. We have invited and have never treated the growing atheroschlerosis of socialism from 1913 through today.
And now with the revelation that Europe's banks have at least 24 TRILLION dollars of toxic assets, more than their combined assets, and the same or worse could be said of ours; with Boomers starting to suck in earnest off an already broke Social Security system not to mention Medicaid/Medicare, Peak Oil which limits our ability to grow as fast and as cheaply as we did for the last 100 years, our religious and political institutions are abject failures....and worst of all....
Unlike my Mayflower ancestors....where the hell can I go now for a new birth of freedom?
Once again....one of the reasons I'm in therapy.
But what about Vietnam? Wasn't that one of the greatest blunders of the greatest generation that was paid for by the baby boomers?? How about the kennedy assassinations? Racial Lynchings? How come nobody ever mentions those things?!
I say this from the persepective of someone who worked on Wall Street during the dot com boom, who's lost people in 9/11, has served in both Iraq and Afghanistan, knows what war & bloodshed actually look like, but still manages to enjoy watching some of the Paris Hilton-like excesses of our culture, and still trying to wrap my head around the TMI-ness of Facebook, Myspace, and the internet in general...
I'm a bit (just a bit) more optimistic about the future, because I sense that attitudes ARE changing, and they are changing quickly. I see it happening here, on other forums that I frequent, and among friends and work colleagues. There IS a growing sense that we are still heading in the wrong direction and that we need to change course.
Most people I know opposed the TARP, oppose the stimulus (certainly in it's present form), and oppose most if not all of the new treasury bailout plan. More and more people recognize the reality of all of this - that it amounts to little more than a transfer of credit bubble economy losses from the powerful elite to the helpless taxpayer.
So I believe that if the President and congress don't change course, and I doubt that they will, there will be a political revolution in the 2010 congressional elections and the course WILL be changed!
All the country needs to survive this, and to come out the other end of it headed for prosperity, is to rediscover our roots and what made this country what it is: individual freedom.
The further the government moves to restrict freedom, the greater the resistance from those of us who crave it and the easier the sell to those who still need to be convinced.
I think it is too easy to make historical generalizations from hind-sight. The people living through all eras make what they think are the best decisions for the time. We look back, and often disagree. They, however, did not have the luxury of knowing what would result from their decisions.
The other problem is that this analysis is narrowly focused on the American experience. Europe and Asia had very different experiences in the first half of the 20th century from the USA. Would the generational generalizations hold up in these contexts?
www.fourthturning.com/
On Feb 11 02:23 PM Larrysyr wrote:
> Thank you, James Quinn, for an extensive and thought-provoking article.
>
>
> I think it is too easy to make historical generalizations from hind-sight.
> The people living through all eras make what they think are the best
> decisions for the time. We look back, and often disagree. They, however,
> did not have the luxury of knowing what would result from their decisions.
>
>
> The other problem is that this analysis is narrowly focused on the
> American experience. Europe and Asia had very different experiences
> in the first half of the 20th century from the USA. Would the generational
> generalizations hold up in these contexts?
I enjoyed the article. I share your worry about what lies over the horizon, but then again it's familiar feeling to someone who grew up w/ nukes pointed at all our cities. I do get the sense that as a nation, it's time we get our shit together because it's hitting the fan.
For the last 3-4 months I’ve followed your articles on Seeking Alpha. Most of them I like. I’m happy to see that you appreciate the insights of BIll Strauss (sadly now dead for a little over a year) and Neil Howe. But you perhaps have missed an important bit of information found in the Earlier Generations book and in the Fourth Turning–that all generation types are equally necessary and ALL have contrasting virtues and drawbacks. No generation or generation type is better or worse than any other, which of course doesn’t mean that generation types don’t get sick of other generations, or even the generation they belong in.
I suspect that you don’t value certain traits very much that are part of the Prophet generation type (ie. Boomers). But having read the books, didn’t you notice that S&H point out repeatedly, that like the four seasons of the year, the longer cycle of the 4 generation types would not succeed without all 4 types playing out their part?
In US history only once did a generation type fail to evolve into its expected type, and that was caused by the most dire Crisis in our history–the Civil War. The Progressive generation, instead of becoming the Hero generation of the Civil War crisis, became Progressive Artists, like Teddy Roosevelt, moreover since the oldest were born in 1843, and at the end of the Civil War were therefore only 23 years of age, a great amount of the dirty work and dying went to the preceding Nomad Gilded (two instances back of the current Nomad type:Gen X’ers). They who suffered most are remembered as the Bloody-Shirt Gilded (Grant, Sherman and many other officers plus a cynical sole you might of heard of, Samuel Clemens). Lincoln was a Transcendental Prophet, and probably the most obsessed President and prophet of our history. His generation was the most influential generation in American history, measured by leadership dominance.
I don’t care why Boomers bother you so much. But understand this, anyone who studies this stuff enough can find plenty of bad traits in every generation type, and for every generation instance that we have decent historical information. It’ like shooting Koi in a shallow pond with a 12 gauge, trivial to do but decidedly not pretty. I could easily run through all the Nomads: Gen X, Lost, Gilded, Liberty and Cavalier and show their consistent weaknesses, but that wouldn’t be fair without pointing out their consistent shared strengths. The same could be done for all types.
In my mind the thing to do is not to exaggerate generational failings, but to understand strengths and weaknesses and to gain skill in melding the current mix of 4 mature generations to get the best outcome. If you think this best outcome would arrive by pruning the Prophet Boomers from the mix, you’ve missed the boat.
Daniel Luedtke
I have a recent update to my Generations/Turning chart that you can request for the asking by sending e-mail to me, djluedtke@gmail.com or looking at the PDF files on SCRIBD:
For a Graph of DJIA with CPI factored in:
www.scribd.com/doc/122...
www.scribd.com/doc/122...
For a printable (as 4 Legal Sized Sheets) Generations Chart of all US History:
www.scribd.com/doc/122...
For a harder to print, one large page chart to print big or to use in a PDF viewer of all US History:
www.scribd.com/doc/122...
Plus I’ll be working on providing the fancy multi-layered version (makes isolating certain features much easier) soon... so, send me your e-mail if you’d like a notice or a multi-layered chart when it’s released.
p.s. All Chart Viewers, Please take a long hard look at the various years of Peace between Great Wars. Think of what the odds would be to have that number be so similar in the 4 Saeculum since the Spanish Armada. Some social mechanics is at work, it should be studied, and if not understood, at least given recognition. Note too, that we’re right on the cusp of starting the new Crisis, or perhaps we’re already in it, since the Crash of October-November of ’08.
1. Our Aging Society. The percentage of the population over 60 will grow to levels not experienced before due to the higher birth rates (1946-1964) and increased life expectancy. The population pyramid is rapidly vanishing in favor of the population rectangle. We(boomers) may become a huge social financial burden to youth, unless we 1.) stay healthy, 2.) stay working longer, and 3.) consume only within our means by right-sizing our housing, walking and biking in more efficient urban settings. Social Security was a incentive to get people out of the workforce, so the young and the restless would not rebel. It is common knowledge that SS payouts would begin at 65, when people died at 63, so it wasn't really expected to cost anything. But if 3 million older people do not retire, and we add 3 million young people to the workforce, we would need to create 6 million jobs per year, to break even.(Ouch!) Maybe we should get older people to quit, but work for free-volunteer. But they can only work for free if they can afford to do so. For many 30-40% of the wealth they did have in housing and savings is now gone. That's one way to keep the older people working, although now they will have to do it for money, not for kicks.
My is a twist on an old solution. After WWII, we built universities and dorms-a place to put GI's- give them something to do. How about if we did the same thing for old people-built dorms(updated version) and sent boomers back to school. This time, I doubt we would start another "Baby Boom" out of dorms full of 50 or 60 year old people. While college costs are high, the cost of living for students is low..under $10,000 per year, even at the most prestigious of private universities. While they are there, retrain them to want to be socially responsible, or do something that is "meaningful", or has a larger "purpose to life" than a big paycheck required to raise a family. Train them in low paying, but needed social/civic work like solving global poverty or global warming. Think of the low cost, but happy workforce that could be developed to teach, work in health care, government or NGOs. And just so no one gets any bright ideas, the housing has to be cheap. People currently working on this want $300K to $400K up front, followed by above market rents. I call this stealing from old people. Would an 18 year old entering college do this? No, so why would an older person have to pay this? If it is government land grant property(free) and construction costs are held at $100/square foot(reasonable), a 500 SQFT, highly efficient apartment should cost around $50,000/unit, or annual rents could be $6,000. 50% of boomers are single, and 30% already have 4 year degrees or more. These new dorms would result in a reasonable return on investment, and older people could afford it. If some of the above sounds negative, you have me all wrong. I would be the first to sign up and go! Obviously unemployed here, as I am spending way to much time writing this, so if all of you, who have the money, you could hire me to build the public private partnership to do this.
2. Wealth Distribution. Social unrest historically develops when the rich get too rich, or there is too much of a concentration of wealth. Recently, I have to smile when I hear a battle cry for "Transparency" Doesn't this also mean, Show me your money, and if you have too much, I want a piece of it? Better be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.
"In the United States, wealth is highly concentrated in a relatively few hands. As of 2001, the top 1% of households (the upper class) owned 33.4% of all privately held wealth, and the next 19% (the managerial, professional, and small business stratum) had 51%, which means that just 20% of the people owned a remarkable 84%, leaving only 16% of the wealth for the bottom 80% (wage and salary workers)." It is even more lopsided now. sociology.ucsc.edu/who...
And,
Marriner S. Eccles who served as Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Chairman of the Federal Reserve from November, 1934 to February, 1948 gave his view of what caused the Depression in his memoirs, "Beckoning Frontiers" (New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 1951):
As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth -- not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced -- to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nation s economic machinery. Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped. robertreich.blogspot.c...
3.Things change faster than they used to, don't they. Does the Internet change everything? 80% to 90% of the population worked in agriculture for 12,000 years. In the last 200 years this number dropped to about 1% now. 60 years ago, 30% of the workforce worked in manufacturing. 10 years ago it was 15% and now, about 8%. Farmers always said farming is safe, because "people gotta eat". "Made in America" campaigns don't seem to be fairing so well either. Save America and only Americans can make "Quality" vehicles, does seem to work. Is teaching "safe" for as long in the future as one can see? Have you ever taken a real time class on line? You can see and hear and talk to the teacher and classmates in real time from anyplace with a connection. How many students can a teacher teach at one time, 20? 100? 1000? And, does that professor, the really great one have to live in the U.S? The cost for the technology is less than $50/student per year. So, how safe is teaching? And how fast could it also implode?
See ya at school!
The nation just elected a man who has promised government would do everything and fix everything. How is faith lost in government?
This is just one of oodles of ridiculous statements in what is little more than a rant against Boomers.
Hatred, envy, and bitterness hang predominantly over the article. There are very few specifics regarding what Quinn's evil Boomer Generation actually did wrong.
Mr. Quinn, you must be the child of Boomers who perhaps divorced, bounced you back and forth between them, and one maybe even abused you.
That's the only answer I can gather for blaming so many problems on one generation.
How does this rant help us invest or trade?
Having read a couple of Strauss' & Howe's (S&H) books, I am intrigued by this post and the responses it has provoked. While I appreciate the broad accuracy of S&H it reminds me a bit too much of astrology in some way, maybe it's all of the made-up words, and concocted spirituality. Just a matter of taste I guess.
My real problem with the work of S&H stems from the complete rejection of any responsibility, it implies that the forces at work are inevitable, and completely lets those responsible off the hook. I also found their methodology a bit difficult to define, which could simply be my bad. Where we are today and where we go tomorrow are the result of our own choices. Not some preordained ritual dance around the campfire. While there is no doubt in my mind that boomers are not a monolithic group, they do seem to relish their own internal ideological split, a split along the lines of a swiftboat campaign, the Moral Majority, celebrations of Woodstock and the like. As many of the comments to this post suggest, and as the last 30 years of American political culture reinforce, the Woodstock crowd did not win this ideological contest. Clearly all boomers fall neither into the Oliver Stone or Dick Cheney classifications, and yet we never hear from these people in the middle, at least not with any degree of volume or clarity.
One characteristic that most boomers do seem to share is what I would call their gullibility, and what S&H might term "a fondness for belief." It may seem self-serving and convenient to non-boomer observers, but I am forced to conclude that it is genuine. It is in my opinion how an entire generation has been duped continuously by Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and now quite possibly Barak Obama. I've been duped too, once or twice, but there seems to be a certain eagerness with which boomers approach ideological purity that is frightening to me. From extreme to extreme, as a people we too often reject a pragmatic middle course, and the boomers seem the likely culprits, or at least the catalytic drivers in these contests. It seems to me we need to let go of the past and start talking like reasonable adults. A first step might be to stop indulging in the notion that the future is predestined. Another temptation we should avoid is clinging to our past, and now invalid, expectations for the future. As things continue to deteriorate we should at least admit that those who will be most negatively impacted are the very young, and possibly even the yet to be born. As they do not yet have a voice, it would seem that it is up to us to do something.
The time for reading the meanderings of S&H was 20 years ago, and then to act toward the prevention of their "predictions." Since we (and by "we" I mean you boomers) have failed to do so, does that really mean boomers should continue to hurl their ideological feces at one another? Granted, it can be entertaining at times, but right now it seems like a downright dangerous indulgence.
As a first wave X'er I have to admit I am very disappointed in my next elders, but then I have made my fair share of mistakes too. Surely there is a Boomer Silent Majority out there that adheres neither to Rushdoony or Nader? I hope so, I really do. Until we get our own heads on straight, all of this amounts to yet more fiddling while Rome burns.
Generationaliy speaking, I don't know who is most to blame. I know that if we adults, regardless of the time we were born, persist in these old habits, it will be OUR fault. The country is pretty diverse, this "One True Religion" approach to social, political, and economic issues has got to go. Yesterday.
So too must our infatuation with pseudo-science like the ideas of S&H. As for whether there is a war in our future, who can say with any degree of certainty? If war does come, will it be the result of some cabal or conspiracy?
It is looking like we still have a lot to do in the way of fostering a reasonable discussion of these important issues. I'm worried that the clock is ticking, and we have yet to moderate our dialogue, we have yet to ignore the extremists at both ends of the spectrum. Unity still seems like a far off place, obscured by memories of Vietnam and Woodstock. I hope I am wrong.
Maybe because only 15% of the public thinks Congress is doing a good job. Maybe because 80% of the public think we are on the wrong track.
I'm a boomer. I must have really hit a nerve old boy. I guess you resemble many of my caricatures.
My parents are still married for 55 years.
Who is the angry one? Sounds like you may have lost 50% of your net worth in the last year.
Your final sentence says it all. You are truly a Boomer. How do I profit?
Keep dodging arty.
On Feb 11 03:44 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:
> Quinn wrote: "The public has lost faith in government..."
>
> The nation just elected a man who has promised government would do
> everything and fix everything. How is faith lost in government?
>
>
> This is just one of oodles of ridiculous statements in what is little
> more than a rant against Boomers.
>
> Hatred, envy, and bitterness hang predominantly over the article.
> There are very few specifics regarding what Quinn's evil Boomer Generation
> actually did wrong.
>
> Mr. Quinn, you must be the child of Boomers who perhaps divorced,
> bounced you back and forth between them, and one maybe even abused
> you.
>
> That's the only answer I can gather for blaming so many problems
> on one generation.
>
> How does this rant help us invest or trade?
On Feb 11 10:18 AM investor88 wrote:
> It may not be far fetched to expect a tough decade or two before
> a new world order comes about. This time it may not be business as
> usual, just coast along and things will work out fine. Things may
> get real tough in the years ahead.
On Feb 11 10:18 AM investor88 wrote:
> It may not be far fetched to expect a tough decade or two before
> a new world order comes about. This time it may not be business as
> usual, just coast along and things will work out fine. Things may
> get real tough in the years ahead.
This discussion could go on for a long time but I'll net out by saying that our generation will prevail, your family, Jim's, mine are worth it. I'll also state that the constant refinement by fire, opening a business in 2001 to current has produced incredible management skills by numbers, understanding of markets and the business cycle. So much so my small businesses have the cash flow to survive and thrive later. I think we ALL collectively as a nation are pissed at the obvious continuing corruption.
What is required of my generation to learn is patience because after the dust all clears, perhaps 2020 and beyond we shall reap our rewards manyfold. Think of the Roaring Twenties crowd. By the time WWII concluded they were called the Greatest Generation and that crop of leadership kept America humming for a good 50 years afterwards. For those of us entrepenuars being angry that we still are being withheld opportunity, refer back to my point of patience. Timing is everything. Do you know some of my tech friends who made during the Bull years of the nineties slept on cots, ate surplus foods and drove used Toyota Corolas? Patience my generation and steely resolve. Our time will also come.
On Feb 11 10:35 AM Larry House wrote:
> This is certainly an ambition piece/series. I have very mixed feelings
> after reading it. I am a 60-year-old, and some of your Boomer comments
> are generalizations that are not only wrong, they sound very mean-spirited
> on the author's part. The author appears to be angry that he was
> born when he was. I have three children and four grandchildren. I
> want a sane country/world for them that allows them to be productive
> and pursue happiness--just as I have in my life. As the author said,
> some generations are called upon to do more than others. It is hard
> to do anything but play the cards we are dealt. Do we really further
> the dicsussion of how to deal with our current economic crisis by
> placing blame on a generation? Sounds about like the Germans and
> the Jews to me. I believe the author is victim of the same base reasoning
> that he wants to attribute to others.
On Feb 11 12:59 PM mr freddo wrote:
> I believe that the future hasn't happened yet! It is completely up
> to the individuals alive now to create the future. Nostrodamus does
> not control our lives nor does this 100 year theory. We are free
> to make decisions and profit or lose from the decisions we make.
> Rest assured no matter how things turn out, someone will try to cram
> it into a predictive model like the one the author describes.
>
> In the past, people married earlier and didn't live as long. Generations
> came every twenty years as opposed to every 30 years today. Is that
> factored in to this formula?
>
> What about Russia? They had hard times starting in about 1900 and,
> they suffered for 90 years until communism was overthrown.
>
> Africa? Suffering now, in the past, and into the future.
>
> Great Britain? They were the world's super power at the turn of the
> century, lost it after World War II, and have not recovered.
>
> Iraq? They ruled 5000 years ago but haven't been able to make much
> of a dent on the world since.
>
> No, I don't think this theory holds water. What you can say about
> human history is that there is struggle, success, expansion, indifference,
> apathy, breakdown, struggle....
>
> The Great Generation came out of WWII with a strong desire to get
> married, have a family, work hard, and not be shot at. They gave
> birth to the Baby Boomers, a generation that is more self absorbed,
> has higher expectations, enjoys life, and still has some sense of
> values that were taught to them by their parents. The Boomers gave
> birth to a generation that wants it all without having to sacrifice,
> They expect it and are surprised when it isn't given to them. (apologies
> to all who are sacrificing every day like our service men and women
> overseas in harm's way).
>
> Eventually hard times hit and a generation is forced into action.
> The survival of the crisis changes that generation and provides them
> with a strength that is evident to all. The material things don't
> matter as much. The luxurious comforts are thrown aside. Family becomes
> the most important priority.
>
> We are wrapped in a crisis of great magnitude that has not even begun
> to have its effects on society. The streets are still safe, (mostly)
> there is food in the stores, and our dollars are still good. It will
> get worse before it gets better. But 10 years from now, it will be
> over. We are not doomed!
On Feb 11 01:41 PM Sentinel wrote:
> "In ten years my sons will be 25, 22, and 20. They will not be sacrificing
> their lives for oil, bankers, corrupt politicians, and Defense industry
> CEOs. If I see the future developing as I fear, I will move my family
> out of this country to a place where individual liberties are respected,
> sound fiscal policy is practiced, and people can live in peace. I
> don’t know if that place exists, but I’ll be looking."
>
> And this last statement of the article is part of the reason I am
> in therapy. Seriously.
>
> I was born in 1964. Some have me as the last Boomer, some as the
> first Gen-Xer. My father was born in 1932...part of the Silent Generation.
> And silent he was. I was raised to believe in God, Country, The American
> Dream and Capitalism.
>
> I have seen from my birth to now a gradual degradation of all the
> institutions and things I was taught to believe in. I was raised
> Southern Baptist. I left it when I discovered we were "Southern"
> Baptists and not just regular Baptists because our Baptist forefathers
> believed in slavery as a God-given right. Plus, it has been and continues
> to be more or less a religious version of the Rotary club. I then
> became Episcapalian only to leave that church when Boomers took over
> and it became the religious arm of the U.N. supporting abortion,
> gay rights and other herectical teachings. The final straw came when
> my Boomer priest who I thought was conservative was kicked out when
> he was found to be shacking up with one of the female deacons and
> then leaving his wife of several decades and 18 year old son whom
> they had adopted from China years before.
>
> I believed in the capitalist system until it became nothing more
> than a system based on indentured servitude. No more respect for
> the people who helped get you successful...you're now just a liability
> because according to this algorithm we could hire 2 young punks out
> of college to do the same thing and even with LESS productivity for
> a while save money rather than to pay your high salary and your retirement
> coming up in two years. Hell....we can offshore the whole damn thing
> to India or China. Because, after all, Wall Street demands we meet
> the quarter...quarter after quarter...never failing....like clockwork.
>
>
> Oh yeah...not to mention these new MIT inspired algorithims which
> says we can cut and package mortgages like cocaine and sell them
> to every bank in the world along with their Credit Default Swaps
> and we'll never have another down year ever again.
>
> I believed that the Republicans were the party that stood for Truth,
> Justice, the American Way....that they were the Party on God's side.
> Until I understood they were whoring so badly with Wall Street that
> they gave the whole country the Sexually Transmitted Disease of Socialism
> in the guise of Democrats.
>
> And worst of all. WE THE PEOPLE have raised up this generation, we
> have taught them, we have instilled our values in them, and yes we
> have even voted for them. We have invited and have never treated
> the growing atheroschlerosis of socialism from 1913 through today.
>
>
> And now with the revelation that Europe's banks have at least 24
> TRILLION dollars of toxic assets, more than their combined assets,
> and the same or worse could be said of ours; with Boomers starting
> to suck in earnest off an already broke Social Security system not
> to mention Medicaid/Medicare, Peak Oil which limits our ability to
> grow as fast and as cheaply as we did for the last 100 years, our
> religious and political institutions are abject failures....and worst
> of all....
>
> Unlike my Mayflower ancestors....where the hell can I go now for
> a new birth of freedom?
>
> Once again....one of the reasons I'm in therapy.
From ancient soothsayers reading omens in thrown bones and mysterious women in smokey veils reading palm lines, to morose German scholars declaring that a scientific evaluation of history and economics reveals an historical imperative that will lead inevitably to the creation of a Socialist Collective Utopia (right after the dissolution a similarly imperative dictatorship of the proletariate), we've always had cranks of one sort or another trying to predict the future by interpreting patterns in history. Some have relied on proximate, short term events and others remote, long term. If history shows us anything for sure, it's that such efforts are futile and can be seen as "true" only by way of selective hindsight validations. This is more of the same.
There is no such cycle. There is no rational basis for believing there is such a cycle. If, in fact, there was one, surely the future performance of mutual funds and/or stocks could be accurately predicted by their past performance patterns within the overall economic environment. Similarly, red 23's on the roulette wheel could be predicted with sufficient statistical precision to make a fortune. Anybody investing that way out there or trying to predict red 23's? How's that working out for you?
Whether we are currently living through what will eventually be judged to have been a watershed event in the course of Western Civilization, most of us alive today will likely never know. But if we are, that event is most surely NOT being caused by some inescapable historical cycle or imperative, if you prefer.
Quinn sometimes has some interesting notions (I loved his Turning Japanese piece), but this historical cycle business is utter rubbish!
I am not one to apply strict patterns to history, but yes, I do think there is a cyclical nature to it all (as the S&H book describes), and fascinating to see it painted out as such.
I could certainly relate to the description of Gen X (being one), and the Boomers seemed harsh yet somewhat true!
Yes, the crap is going to hit the fan...no question about it. When and how hard we shall see, but it looks like soon and very hard.
I'm also looking for that place where true liberty is practiced and there is peace. It sounds rather hippie in this day and age, but we can dream. Maybe New Zealand? I'm thinking somewhere that is a bit remote (geographically), is blessed with plentiful natural resources that have not been plundered completely, and has a smallish population. I'm not in that place just now, but it sounds good to me.
And you, sir, must obviously be an authority on the subject? The author's article is informative and delves into one theory as to how events in our country over the past couple of centuries possibly fit into a cyclical pattern that repeats itself. Is it gospel fact. No. Is it plausible? In many respects, yes. Does it account for every last detail, cause and effect, etc. that encompasses our overall history as a country and society? Obvioulsy not.
That said, to dismiss the article outright with a statement that "there is no such cycle" simply because you believe so is your opinion. Constructive critique based on notions other than "I say so" would be more relevant in the future.
Keep up the good work, Jim.
On Feb 11 05:47 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:
> Very interesting reading, and the comments are interesting too!<br/>
>
> I am not one to apply strict patterns to history, but yes, I do think
> there is a cyclical nature to it all (as the S&H book describes),
> and fascinating to see it painted out as such.
>
> I could certainly relate to the description of Gen X (being one),
> and the Boomers seemed harsh yet somewhat true!
>
> Yes, the crap is going to hit the fan...no question about it. When
> and how hard we shall see, but it looks like soon and very hard.
>
> I'm also looking for that place where true liberty is practiced and
> there is peace. It sounds rather hippie in this day and age, but
> we can dream. Maybe New Zealand? I'm thinking somewhere that is a
> bit remote (geographically), is blessed with plentiful natural resources
> that have not been plundered completely, and has a smallish population.
> I'm not in that place just now, but it sounds good to me.
>
>
>
Historiography is the study of theories of history. "Cycles" is the label for one group of such theories. One Christian view of history is that everything before Jesus' birth leads up to it while everything since leads up to His second coming. I'm a Jew; it is a bit of a jolt to read comments by professed Christians endorsing a cyclical historiography.
As a graduate student, I did a term paper on the idea that civilizations go through a life cycle -- birth, development, maturity, senescence, death. These theories are slightly different from cyclical ones.
The past can be re-written to fit whatever historical theory you prefer. However, no historical theory has been shown to be good at predicting the future. I agree with those who can say only: "The future lies ahead."
I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I finished last year with an 11% gain. Not great—but I am, after all, as my fellow investing friends call me, the Artful Dodger.
If you’re a Boomer yourself, then you must either be one of the youngest of the generation (most of whom feel their older siblings soaked up everything before they had the opportunity) or you have a frontal lobe deformity (which would account for your cynicism and bitterness). In the former case, I’d say, get over it. And in the latter, there are drugs to aid this type of problem.
Either way your writing betrays a bitter Boomer. In that respect, I’m very sorry for you and those who bear similar feelings.
As to my last comment regarding your rant not helping readers in either investing or trading, it is certainly true. Is this not an investing blog, one meant to help folks with their investments and/or trades?
There is no greed involved. I'm been investing in stocks since the mid-60s, and I take the wins and loses about the same. But when I'm trying to read investing info, that's what I want to find, especially on an investing blog.
I monitor a biblical linguistic and language site, meant to assist folks in their bible studies.
When someone strays from those subjects—much less goes on a generalized rant against a group he blames for the world’s problems—we don’t publish the articles.
I suppose the editors at SeekingAlpha publish yours because they garner a lot of comments. Otherwise, I have no idea why they would bother. However, it is their blog, and they can certainly do as they please.
Or, perhaps I'm wrong, and there's something worthwhile regarding investing and/or trading in your rant.
Understand, I don’t care what you write about. I just don’t think this type of rant belongs on an investing site, Quinney me boy.
With all respect, AD
Write a book, I'd buy it.
However, I do find Artful Dodger's comments humorous nonetheless.
i came to this site to get investing info and i find an author using an FDR man-the-battle-station... quote and rambling on and on about cultural generational problems.
a good editor is called for with your writings james quinn, if i may say so. even if it fit the site it's too much too much.
molly
There is more to life than investing. Broaden your horizons old boy. I hope you are a better trader than psychoanalyst. Maybe you should stick to your knitting.
It appears your opinion is in the minority regarding the article.
Every boomer made 11% last year, that is why the market was down 40%. Fill us in with your trading wisdom, Arty.
On Feb 11 08:31 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:
> Mr. Quinn:
>
> I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I finished last year with an 11%
> gain. Not great—but I am, after all, as my fellow investing friends
> call me, the Artful Dodger.
>
> If you’re a Boomer yourself, then you must either be one of the youngest
> of the generation (most of whom feel their older siblings soaked
> up everything before they had the opportunity) or you have a frontal
> lobe deformity (which would account for your cynicism and bitterness).
> In the former case, I’d say, get over it. And in the latter, there
> are drugs to aid this type of problem.
>
> Either way your writing betrays a bitter Boomer. In that respect,
> I’m very sorry for you and those who bear similar feelings.
>
> As to my last comment regarding your rant not helping readers in
> either investing or trading, it is certainly true. Is this not an
> investing blog, one meant to help folks with their investments and/or
> trades?
>
> There is no greed involved. I'm been investing in stocks since the
> mid-60s, and I take the wins and loses about the same. But when I'm
> trying to read investing info, that's what I want to find, especially
> on an investing blog.
>
> I monitor a biblical linguistic and language site, meant to assist
> folks in their bible studies.
>
> When someone strays from those subjects—much less goes on a generalized
> rant against a group he blames for the world’s problems—we don’t
> publish the articles.
>
> I suppose the editors at SeekingAlpha publish yours because they
> garner a lot of comments. Otherwise, I have no idea why they would
> bother. However, it is their blog, and they can certainly do as they
> please.
>
> Or, perhaps I'm wrong, and there's something worthwhile regarding
> investing and/or trading in your rant.
>
> Understand, I don’t care what you write about. I just don’t think
> this type of rant belongs on an investing site, Quinney me boy.
>
>
> With all respect, AD
On Feb 11 09:44 PM blonde molly wrote:
> i think the Dodger has nailed down a good point. i was about half
> way thru when i asked myself, why i am reading this piece.
>
> i came to this site to get investing info and i find an author using
> an FDR man-the-battle-station... quote and rambling on and on about
> cultural generational problems.
>
> a good editor is called for with your writings james quinn, if i
> may say so. even if it fit the site it's too much too much.
>
> molly
>
I'm a GenXer, and can relate to your 3 piece article. If war comes, however, I don't think I will exit the USA although I am still young enough for the draft for the next 10 years or so.
Fore more elucidating articles I recommend Robert Reich blog below. He had some time as a Washington insider in a past administration.
robertreich.blogspot.c...
people tend to become very introspective when things get bad - analyzing their lives and events which lead us to this point on the timeline of history. There are elements of truth in these wave theories.
i actually am one person who believes the vietnam war actually defined the boomers. The older boomers served or lost friends or both.
I can tell you that people who went to nam did not come back in one piece. i can tell you that there is nothing like being embarrassed to wear your uniform in public on the streets in america. I can tell you that it is hard to execute orders when your friend was just blown away, and your government is negotiating in paris to "surrender" - this process lasted five years.
i can tell you that all the sacrifices made by the early baby boomers wiped out by the canning of the domino theory. The early boomers learned there was little black or white - or rewards for trying to do the right thing. The only winners of the vietnam war was the war industrial complex.
watching cronkite on tv at night seeing the images of nam, the senseless killings, and an enemy you could not identify ..... challenged your faith. what was happening seemed nothing like wwII of our parents - we were not fighting against evil.
the final result is a me too boomer generation - but not because they were pampered.
dogmatic and cocky
glib
wasteful
shallow
self absorbed
illogical
have no sense of duty
psychotic
materialistic
and a homicidal warmonger.
You, I assume, imagine yourself moderate and reasoned in your views, never one to reach glib conclusions of splutter gibberish.
Now that you've finished your rant, I hope you've wiped the froth from your mouth and taken your medication.
I can't wait for the second installment.
I like to think of myself as passionate about the future path of our country. I certainly don't fit into this Politically Correct Double Speak world that you inhabit.
On Feb 12 02:04 AM User 213023 wrote:
> I'm reading your best guess for the future, and learn from point
> 10 (you've got a lot of guesses) that as a baby boomer I'm:
>
> dogmatic and cocky
> glib
> wasteful
> shallow
> self absorbed
> illogical
> have no sense of duty
> psychotic
> materialistic
> and a homicidal warmonger.
>
> You, I assume, imagine yourself moderate and reasoned in your views,
> never one to reach glib conclusions of splutter gibberish.
>
> Now that you've finished your rant, I hope you've wiped the froth
> from your mouth and taken your medication.
>
"I didn't know the Boomers started welfare, SS, food stamps, medicare, maxicare, payments to those not working; and that they nationalized cancer (that’s done a lot of good!), took us off the gold standard, created a central bank that prints fiat money at will, opened the gates up to every 4th world immigrant breathing, enacted steep progressive income taxation, started national highway projects, built the military complex, pushed the nation into two World Wars plus Korea and Vietnam, enacted excise taxes and tariffs on whatever, used the government to make wealth transfers to certain races and age groups, enacted corporate taxes, inheritance taxes, started deficit spending, ordered companies to match a worker's SS, to pay workman's comp; and placed onerous rules and regulations on everything from hamburgers to autos to manufacturing, in addition to a whole host of other things the modern government has done.
Of course, the Boomers also legalized abortion in 1972 and the pill in 1964—so that now the oneness crowd can say, America is not producing enough children to keep future generations up, so the nation must immigrate even more illiterate broke 4th worlders.
And of course, the Boomers began radicalizing the Supreme Court back in the early part of the last century when TR appointed the first atheist evolutionist, Oliver Wendel Holmes, to the court—who led the way to help get the income tax and other unconstitutional burdens laid on the people. Then I suppose the Boomers advised both FDR & Ike and had them put more radicals on the court who hated the Constitution.
The child who wrote this article must have found some Abbie Hoffman material and swallowed it like perhaps one-half of 1% of the Boomers did. Those of that group not dead, like Hoffman, are working in the government or are tenured at what are now mostly leftist universities and colleges.
Re this crack that Dumborats make all the time: "The top 20% of households make 12.5 times the lowest 20% of households. This ratio was 7 to 1 in 1982. The top 1% of households make 20% of all the income in the U.S., the highest rate since 1928."
This is because the US continues to immigrate poorer and poorer people from 4th world countries. Take them out of the equation and the ratios narrow quite a lot. But no, we’re bringing even more in—illegally or otherwise.
So, of course, this is simply more WoodrowWilson-Hoover-F... balderdash. Each one of these—and only two are Boomers and certainly one fits in quite well with the Abbie Hoffman followers—have dumped on the Constitution and taken the federal government miles and miles further away from its original principles.
As far as the greatness of the "Great Generation" (so named by leftists such as Tom Brokow), they should be called the brainwashed generation, because they bought every syllable of propaganda vomited forth from the only three networks the nation had then and still has now: ABC, CBS, NBC.
Now, thank God we have the non-partisan, non-propagandizing CNN, PBS, CNBC, MSNBC, the History Channel (ahem), BET, and oodles others to help the Big Three feed hoi polloi honest and objective material.
I’m sure this child has also read a few of the writings of Heather Booth, Steve Max, Mickey Flacks, Nick Egleson, Barbara Garson, Amy Kesslemen, Vivian Rothstein, Naomi Weisstein, Alan Haber, Jerry Rubin, Paul Booth, Steve Max, Jim Mosonis, Allen Ginsberg, Arthur Waskow, Lee Weiner, Lee Webb, Todd Gitlin, Huey Newton, Malcolm X, Tom Hayden, Sydney Hook, Michael Harrington, Saul Alinzky, and Jack Newfield.
Have I left out any Marxists this little boy may have read? Well, that’s all I can think of right now.
By the way, the US government has enacted almost every thing (in some degree) this group advocated.
The biggest thing I can fault the Boomers for is going about their lives while this small group of leftists ruined their nation."
ARTY DODGEBALL - NOV 9 5:16 pm
On Feb 11 08:31 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:
> Mr. Quinn:
>
> I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I finished last year with an 11%
> gain. Not great—but I am, after all, as my fellow investing friends
> call me, the Artful Dodger.
>
> If you’re a Boomer yourself, then you must either be one of the youngest
> of the generation (most of whom feel their older siblings soaked
> up everything before they had the opportunity) or you have a frontal
> lobe deformity (which would account for your cynicism and bitterness).
> In the former case, I’d say, get over it. And in the latter, there
> are drugs to aid this type of problem.
>
> Either way your writing betrays a bitter Boomer. In that respect,
> I’m very sorry for you and those who bear similar feelings.
>
> As to my last comment regarding your rant not helping readers in
> either investing or trading, it is certainly true. Is this not an
> investing blog, one meant to help folks with their investments and/or
> trades?
>
> There is no greed involved. I'm been investing in stocks since the
> mid-60s, and I take the wins and loses about the same. But when I'm
> trying to read investing info, that's what I want to find, especially
> on an investing blog.
>
> I monitor a biblical linguistic and language site, meant to assist
> folks in their bible studies.
>
> When someone strays from those subjects—much less goes on a generalized
> rant against a group he blames for the world’s problems—we don’t
> publish the articles.
>
> I suppose the editors at SeekingAlpha publish yours because they
> garner a lot of comments. Otherwise, I have no idea why they would
> bother. However, it is their blog, and they can certainly do as they
> please.
>
> Or, perhaps I'm wrong, and there's something worthwhile regarding
> investing and/or trading in your rant.
>
> Understand, I don’t care what you write about. I just don’t think
> this type of rant belongs on an investing site, Quinney me boy.
>
>
> With all respect, AD
Let's put ideology aside - where could we move? How can we educate out kids so they become part of the future solution, not problem.
I too am ready to pull my family of four out of here if things degrade much more. Born in '57, I have had quite a few years to digest both the good (90's), the bad (00's) and the ugly(80's). This country runs around chasing it's tail so much it's ridiculous. And credit/money is at the root of all of it - hmmm - "money is the root of many evils". The Bible is a geat source of wisdom, maybe people should actually read it.
You see, there never was a Social Security surplus, a pension surplus, nor has there been a true budget surplus since before the Vietnam War. We went off the gold standard so we could pay for our imported oil instead of developing new sources of energy. Living of the national credit card for nearly 40 years has finally caught up with us.
We chose the easy way out, and now we and our children will pay the price.
Welcome NWO, so long America's middle class.
Meanwhile, peak oil can be obviated by trillions of dollars in investment in solar and the grid, and solar will not run out for a very long time. China agriculture can be made significantly more productive with hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in irrigation and flood control. Once we get past this traumatic period where no one knows how much of their wealth will be left when the dust has settled, Americans can go back to sharing their wealth and knowledge with the rest of the world, which in the majority is significantly worse off.
So retirement has to be postponed for many Americans- what's so bad about that?
So I am not really a big fan of the all-predictable 100 year cycle theory. But I agree with the prediction at the end of this article.
On Feb 11 10:56 AM User 224899 wrote:
> Boomers never evolved a will to win, and don't embrace the will to
> survive, which is necessary for a nation to adaptively prevail in
> a crisis.
>
> Having never matured enough to make the transition from liberal to
> conservative thinking, Boomers will lead America into a declining
> twilight period like the one "old Europe" is experiencing now: declining
> white atheist populations; expanding ethnic religious populations;
> Islam rising to dominance due to rapid population growth while genderless
> atheist whites don't bother to reproduce.
>
> In contrast to World War II, America will lose the current war (the
> smoldering, largely covert global jihad) because Boomers would rather
> hug and discuss than fight. Boomers cannot support a culturally shared
> love of home and love of national character, which carried the US
> and Britain to victory in WW II.
>
> Nobody will ever call Boomers "gritty" or "determined" or "honorable"
> or "courageous" or "noble" or "loyal" or "proud" or "bold" or "aggressive".
> In fact, Boomers run schools that punish boys for displaying those
> traits, and those are the very traits enable people to win wars and
> prevail during crises.
>
> Boomers cannot allow themselves to believe that it is right to fight
> a war for oil or coal or land, and absolutely refuse to fight a war
> over a religous belief, and will ultimately lose to those who still
> believe that it is right to do so.
How's this for a better theory: for the first time the US is facing extremely tough competition from the giants of Asia, China and India. (Japan was/is a competitor, but with a lower population than the US was not as formidable.)
The lower prices in goods and services produced in China and India is seriously eroding the profitability of US business - and worse these economies do not play by the 'Queensberry' economic rules. (Huawei's products for example are a direct crib of Cisco's product set - all achieved without R&D. There are huge import tariffs - tangible and intangible - on many goods imported into China and India, yet the US's tariff are relatively low, etc).
And just like generals fight the last war, America is fighting the last economic crisis, enormous Keynesian stimulation which worked last time round (or so orthodoxy has it).
All this competition is now starting to take its toll on the US. From a competitive point of view Spain was overtaken by the Netherlands; the Netherlands by England and the old Germany, England by America. Now there is the battle for China and India to overtake America.
Recently I spent a week in Bangalore and Mumbai - the feeling among the man in the street is uniformly upbeat. Sure there is a downturn, but we will come out of it and eventually take a rightful place in the world. Things will improve. China has a similar view.
Contrast that to the bleak view of James Quinn. America getting its comeuppance as a historical inevitability.
Playing the fear card? You wouldn't happen to be a boomer would you?
If you consider facts than scary is the right description. I'd love to hear your 12 counterpoints.
On Feb 12 01:27 PM mattlesnake wrote:
> Your article was incredibly interesting until you hit your numbered
> points at the end. Then it just got scary/Jerry Bruckheimerish <br/>
>
> Playing the fear card? You wouldn't happen to be a boomer would you?
>
I recently started reading George Friedman's "The next hundred years" which does attempt a real geopolitical analysis of the cycles we're in. Although no one knows whether the predictions will come true, it is a good method of identifying trends and breaking points if use appropriately.
I read Friedman's article on Mauldin and he also ponders war with Mexico and that Turkey and Poland will develop into world powers. He may be right.
On Feb 12 02:57 PM bcncv wrote:
> The observation of historical cycles is a great way to look at the
> world, but you seem to be taking biases and applying them to cycles
> instead of analyzing the cycles themselves. Remember, of all of the
> cycles throughout US history, only two involved major war (Civil
> war and WWII) and one involved the great depression. Your "predictions"
> also have nothing to do with the cycle we're in.
>
> I recently started reading George Friedman's "The next hundred years"
> which does attempt a real geopolitical analysis of the cycles we're
> in. Although no one knows whether the predictions will come true,
> it is a good method of identifying trends and breaking points if
> use appropriately.
this whole article IS inaccurate. It wants to know the future. For that to be the past has to be modeled. And that IS difficult. Nevertheless it is so very true to present. Not a model but just a feeling. Of course others do better at "predicting". But this whole "doing analysis on PCA = factor analysis". Get over it. Get some course in fractal stuff and see how the unpredictable evolves.
The ones who what to know have just no clue!!!!
Boomer leaders are always sure, and often wrong.
They only know about contacts, and when they fail.......... then they just begged they had a clue......
On Feb 12 09:41 AM pockyclips 2020 wrote:
> Oh, how I laugh when I think of the good old days (late '90s) when
> the talk about town was retirement @ 45 due to capital appreciation
> . Now it looks like for mid boomers and beyond, anything more than
> a 5 year retirement will be a luxury few can afford,
>
> You see, there never was a Social Security surplus, a pension surplus,
> nor has there been a true budget surplus since before the Vietnam
> War. We went off the gold standard so we could pay for our imported
> oil instead of developing new sources of energy. Living of the national
> credit card for nearly 40 years has finally caught up with us.<br/>
>
> We chose the easy way out, and now we and our children will pay the
> price.
> Welcome NWO, so long America's middle class.
As an almost-50, late Boomer/single mom/bootstrapped entrepreneur, I've also looked back and noticed cycles -- taken on and accelerated by my own generation.
In the San Diego, CA area, repeated "meltdown" phrases I've heard have included, "The Rise and Fall of the American Empire," another Depression, "money/power/greed [tagline of D.C.'s "Regardie's" magazine years ago?] being kicked in the a$$" etc. I've overhead wealthy folks in Starbucks ask each other, "Just how much is enough? How many houses do we NEED?" I've heard 80-something relatives from The Greatest Generation (Depression/WWII) *for the first time ever* talk about being "scared" because they might have to sell homes to pay for deteriorating health medical care -- when they dutifully worked for decades, built gradually, paid into retirement, benefited from careful stock purchases ... and are now vulnerable ... because of the money/power/greed actions of people they've never met. I could raise shackles and suggest that *their* generation, in addition to our children and grandchildren's generations, have been *robbed*.
My big concerns are about the insidiousness of "the changes in/around generations like mine -- who were raised, generally, to think in terms of "we" and came to think in terms of "I". Of those who watched women burn bras, get divorced, go to work -- and what have we got besides a growing culture that values money over people, family and education.
THAT, to me, creates a breakdown in the overall fabric of a nation.
It's entirely about character. Personal, community, state, regional, national. It's about thinking past one's own self, life, needs to the greater good. It's about sacrifice.
My dad and those of his generation were the first to tell me, when the market tanked last fall, that we were headed toward a Depression. They'd BTDT. He told me two months before it happened that the Dow would hit 7000. When I asked him, later, how it felt to be right, he said, "I'd rather be whole than be right." He was lucky; he'd seen it coming and had moved his assets into bonds.
I have to agree with the author that there *are* cycles to human behavior. Just as 20 years is the cycle for someone to grow to maturity, these are also the cycles when maturity takes on the reins of power, responsibility and decision-making, for good or for ill.
I never imagined in my wildest dreams that I'd be raising an 11 year old daughter in an environment where this would be what she faced. It's tough to explain, since no external calamitous event caused it. WE the People caused it. How embarrassing. We the People have had it to mess up, and now We the People are going to have to live with the consequences of our choices, and find a way to fix it. Or lose it.
It's my hope that these will be lessons learned about honesty, truth, humility, compassion, generosity, collaboration -- and that they'll bring a coming *back* together for this nation. For we have everything at stake now. If this series of events makes America once again a nation of activists, good. We each, as citizens, have a voice, a role and a responsibility to be part of the solution.
I'm in agreement w/ JQ on this one, and would certainly include the revolution. While much smaller in terms of numbers participating and dying, the population of the colonies was quite tiny, and that war reached far into every corner of the society. Highly divisive, as much so as the Civil War. Battles fought across the colonies. For its time, far much more of a cataclysm than anything since WWII for those alive now, I'd argue.
Sustainability, long term thinking needs to be what replaces the childish selfish greedy all extraction consumption debt driven society to which we all belong.
On Feb 11 01:41 PM Sentinel wrote:
> "In ten years my sons will be 25, 22, and 20. They will not be sacrificing
> their lives for oil, bankers, corrupt politicians, and Defense industry
> CEOs. If I see the future developing as I fear, I will move my family
> out of this country to a place where individual liberties are respected,
> sound fiscal policy is practiced, and people can live in peace. I
> don’t know if that place exists, but I’ll be looking."
>
> And this last statement of the article is part of the reason I am
> in therapy. Seriously.
>
> I was born in 1964. Some have me as the last Boomer, some as the
> first Gen-Xer. My father was born in 1932...part of the Silent Generation.
> And silent he was. I was raised to believe in God, Country, The
> American Dream and Capitalism.
>
> I have seen from my birth to now a gradual degradation of all the
> institutions and things I was taught to believe in. I was raised
> Southern Baptist. I left it when I discovered we were "Southern"
> Baptists and not just regular Baptists because our Baptist forefathers
> believed in slavery as a God-given right. Plus, it has been and
> continues to be more or less a religious version of the Rotary club.
> I then became Episcapalian only to leave that church when Boomers
> took over and it became the religious arm of the U.N. supporting
> abortion, gay rights and other herectical teachings. The final straw
> came when my Boomer priest who I thought was conservative was kicked
> out when he was found to be shacking up with one of the female deacons
> and then leaving his wife of several decades and 18 year old son
> whom they had adopted from China years before.
>
> I believed in the capitalist system until it became nothing more
> than a system based on indentured servitude. No more respect for
> the people who helped get you successful...you're now just a liability
> because according to this algorithm we could hire 2 young punks out
> of college to do the same thing and even with LESS productivity for
> a while save money rather than to pay your high salary and your retirement
> coming up in two years. Hell....we can offshore the whole damn thing
> to India or China. Because, after all, Wall Street demands we meet
> the quarter...quarter after quarter...never failing....like clockwork.
>
>
> Oh yeah...not to mention these new MIT inspired algorithims which
> says we can cut and package mortgages like cocaine and sell them
> to every bank in the world along with their Credit Default Swaps
> and we'll never have another down year ever again.
>
> I believed that the Republicans were the party that stood for Truth,
> Justice, the American Way....that they were the Party on God's side.
> Until I understood they were whoring so badly with Wall Street that
> they gave the whole country the Sexually Transmitted Disease of Socialism
> in the guise of Democrats.
>
> And worst of all. WE THE PEOPLE have raised up this generation,
> we have taught them, we have instilled our values in them, and yes
> we have even voted for them. We have invited and have never treated
> the growing atheroschlerosis of socialism from 1913 through today.
>
>
> And now with the revelation that Europe's banks have at least 24
> TRILLION dollars of toxic assets, more than their combined assets,
> and the same or worse could be said of ours; with Boomers starting
> to suck in earnest off an already broke Social Security system not
> to mention Medicaid/Medicare, Peak Oil which limits our ability to
> grow as fast and as cheaply as we did for the last 100 years, our
> religious and political institutions are abject failures....and worst
> of all....
>
> Unlike my Mayflower ancestors....where the hell can I go now for
> a new birth of freedom?
>
> Once again....one of the reasons I'm in therapy.
Why is social security, of which we all have had our wages stolen for our entire lives to fund an "entitlement", yet the BILLIONS in federal pensions and the best health insurance in the country, immaterial?
So, a person who works 20 years for the feds deserves to be paid for life, then their spouse, with nearly free health care. But those like my dad, you had huge chunks of small incomes stolen from the age of 15 until 70 are getting "entitlements."
Glad to hear that even after the collapse the government minions will eat, too bad I don't have that faith for my family. After all, we only work with no breaks, no vacation and for our entire lives, we don't deserve our money back.
Finally, if you really think this is coming (I think it is and much faster than you), and you don't want your sons harmed, may I suggest you get out now? For if you don't, no way will a failing government ruling over anarchy allow your passage. Well, unless you have huge chunks of cash to bribe the wheel.
On Feb 11 01:41 PM Sentinel wrote:
> "In ten years my sons will be 25, 22, and 20. They will not be sacrificing
> their lives for oil, bankers, corrupt politicians, and Defense industry
> CEOs. If I see the future developing as I fear, I will move my family
> out of this country to a place where individual liberties are respected,
> sound fiscal policy is practiced, and people can live in peace. I
> don’t know if that place exists, but I’ll be looking."
>
> And this last statement of the article is part of the reason I am
> in therapy. Seriously.
>
> I was born in 1964. Some have me as the last Boomer, some as the
> first Gen-Xer. My father was born in 1932...part of the Silent Generation.
> And silent he was. I was raised to believe in God, Country, The American
> Dream and Capitalism.
>
> I have seen from my birth to now a gradual degradation of all the
> institutions and things I was taught to believe in. I was raised
> Southern Baptist. I left it when I discovered we were "Southern"
> Baptists and not just regular Baptists because our Baptist forefathers
> believed in slavery as a God-given right. Plus, it has been and continues
> to be more or less a religious version of the Rotary club. I then
> became Episcapalian only to leave that church when Boomers took over
> and it became the religious arm of the U.N. supporting abortion,
> gay rights and other herectical teachings. The final straw came when
> my Boomer priest who I thought was conservative was kicked out when
> he was found to be shacking up with one of the female deacons and
> then leaving his wife of several decades and 18 year old son whom
> they had adopted from China years before.
>
> I believed in the capitalist system until it became nothing more
> than a system based on indentured servitude. No more respect for
> the people who helped get you successful...you're now just a liability
> because according to this algorithm we could hire 2 young punks out
> of college to do the same thing and even with LESS productivity for
> a while save money rather than to pay your high salary and your retirement
> coming up in two years. Hell....we can offshore the whole damn thing
> to India or China. Because, after all, Wall Street demands we meet
> the quarter...quarter after quarter...never failing....like clockwork.
>
>
> Oh yeah...not to mention these new MIT inspired algorithims which
> says we can cut and package mortgages like cocaine and sell them
> to every bank in the world along with their Credit Default Swaps
> and we'll never have another down year ever again.
>
> I believed that the Republicans were the party that stood for Truth,
> Justice, the American Way....that they were the Party on God's side.
> Until I understood they were whoring so badly with Wall Street that
> they gave the whole country the Sexually Transmitted Disease of Socialism
> in the guise of Democrats.
>
> And worst of all. WE THE PEOPLE have raised up this generation, we
> have taught them, we have instilled our values in them, and yes we
> have even voted for them. We have invited and have never treated
> the growing atheroschlerosis of socialism from 1913 through today.
>
>
> And now with the revelation that Europe's banks have at least 24
> TRILLION dollars of toxic assets, more than their combined assets,
> and the same or worse could be said of ours; with Boomers starting
> to suck in earnest off an already broke Social Security system not
> to mention Medicaid/Medicare, Peak Oil which limits our ability to
> grow as fast and as cheaply as we did for the last 100 years, our
> religious and political institutions are abject failures....and worst
> of all....
>
> Unlike my Mayflower ancestors....where the hell can I go now for
> a new birth of freedom?
>
> Once again....one of the reasons I'm in therapy.
https://cia.gov/library/public...
On Feb 11 10:56 AM User 224899 wrote:
> Boomers never evolved a will to win, and don't embrace the will to
> survive, which is necessary for a nation to adaptively prevail in
> a crisis.
>
> Having never matured enough to make the transition from liberal to
> conservative thinking, Boomers will lead America into a declining
> twilight period like the one "old Europe" is experiencing now: declining
> white atheist populations; expanding ethnic religious populations;
> Islam rising to dominance due to rapid population growth while genderless
> atheist whites don't bother to reproduce.
>
> In contrast to World War II, America will lose the current war (the
> smoldering, largely covert global jihad) because Boomers would rather
> hug and discuss than fight. Boomers cannot support a culturally shared
> love of home and love of national character, which carried the US
> and Britain to victory in WW II.
>
> Nobody will ever call Boomers "gritty" or "determined" or "honorable"
> or "courageous" or "noble" or "loyal" or "proud" or "bold" or "aggressive".
> In fact, Boomers run schools that punish boys for displaying those
> traits, and those are the very traits enable people to win wars and
> prevail during crises.
>
> Boomers cannot allow themselves to believe that it is right to fight
> a war for oil or coal or land, and absolutely refuse to fight a war
> over a religous belief, and will ultimately lose to those who still
> believe that it is right to do so.
What an amazing article.
Great awakening indeed.
What an amazing article.
Great awakening indeed.
Great post Rosey, yours like so many other post echoed one common theme to me. That is that many of us want to contribute something to help "move on with our lives" and do so with the maximum positive impact to our world. You all can help and achieve a very great and positive impact on our world. You can do this by checking out AND then spreading the news about SWAP . These Patent Pending processes are unbelievable Environmental and Economical beneficial solutions that consumes waste products like Carbon dioxide and combines them with other waste to make valuable industrial materials (hydrogen, carbon fibers to name a few) in great volumes. Which makes it possible to 1) economically burn hydrogen to generate power and 2) a cheap source of carbon fibers for stronger than steel construction materials. World wide there are literally billions of tons of waste that can be used instead of being dumped into OUR Environment. You can start NOW! Most of my post are about SWAP processes. Here is part of their statements:
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Together WE can make it happen!
On Feb 11 03:56 PM rosey99 wrote:
> Wow! Not just thought provoking, but this post has surely brought
> out the most diverse comments I have seen on SA. .......(see Rosey99's post for the rest)
Hey Daniel Luedtke, Thanks for the FREE Charts. You must have spent a lot of time, energy & resources creating these charts. I am just getting started. It took 6 weeks for my copy of the book "The Fourth Turning" to arrive.
Many people take for granted that lives always get better, and the next generation will live better and longer. BUT, that's through "American" eyes. Look south of the border, how come after milleniums, many of them are still living in abject poverty?
Then let's look around at countries with longer history. China last reach its peak some 1400 years ago, or the Tang Dynasty, and then it was wars and poverty up until 20 years ago that Chinese started their "new" life, and now they are also taking this "american" way of life for granted and want to live like the "Americans". Other civilizations? They fared even worse, Iraq was the craddle of middle east civilization, and the Americans are still bombing the sheet out of them. The Romans? We can visit their ruins in the poor cousin country of EU. Oh, and the Mayan civilization? Go to a museum.
The British Empire, now that wasn't too long ago, where the sun never sets on its teritories. Now it's becoming an insignificant player. (I surely will get flack on this one, but when was the last time you bought anything British?)
We've seen the best times, welcome to the decline. Once we admit the inevitability of it, it actually isn't too bad.
James, there aren't many hiding places out there, but still a few to consider. War is inevitable (surely you know, as a student of history).
May us all live in an interesting time!
A great article, even though it could have used a little editing. You and I are simpatico. There are many scholars who understand the role of cycles (my namesake Nikolai Kondratieff is one of the father's of the Long Wave Theory of economics) and have written widely about the rise and fall of great societies. Oswald Spengler, Paul Kennedy, and Edward Gibbon are others who have chronicled the the cycles of prosperity and decline in great civilizations.
According to the Long Wave view of things, we are in economic winter. Which brings me to my point. We are witnessing the twilight of the American civilization and unfortunately the policies of the Obama economic team are hastening its arrival. I voted for Obama and think he possesses great qualities needed in a leader during times of crisis. But it's clear to me that his pick of Geithner, Summers, Gensler, and others to advise him on issues of economic, fiscal, and monetary policy, and his inability to pick a qualified commerce secretary (both Richardson and Gregg were political picks and would have been disastrous) makes me realize his administration is going to accelerate the decline of our great nation.
But all is not lost. We need to go through this period of contraction so we can have a great reset. My biggest fear is that the process will create social unrest and will incubate neo-fascist and authoritarian ideologies. And when that happens I shall be joining you in your hunt for a new place on this planet to call home while the fires burn in the land of my birth.
The greatest irony I see these days is that there are more smiling faces in India, than there are in the US... even on a per capita basis.
thanks.
I am recently retired. For the past 3 years, I've done an extensive amount of reading and study of global economics, various markets (stock markets, bond markets, currency markets, oil markets, precious metals markets, etc.). Based on what I've learned, I can clearly see that our government has undertaken major steps to protect the Power Elite and the extremely wealthy in this country, by:
1. Changing the laws (e.g. in 1999, the coercion of Congress to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933) to support banks use of excessive leverage,
2. Systematically manipulating the above-mentioned world markets for the past 16 years (e.g. conducting oil swaps from oil in the US SPR; conducting gold swaps from the 260 million oz. of gold that used to be in Ft. Knox; etc.),
3. Forcing US Federal agencies (e.g. the SEC and the CFTC are great examples) to "look the other way" instead of prosecuting the massive fraud that occurred in markets that were in their jurisdictions),
4. Allowing the US Federal Reserve to far, far exceed their authority, as expressed in the Federal Reserve Act of 1933 (e.g. the establishment of 90% non-recourse financing for purchasers of debt via the TALF; this is effectively an appropriation of $900 billion, but our Constitution clearly grants the "government appropriations" of taxpayer money to the Congress, not an semi-public agency that was created in 1913!),
5. Consistently lying to the American people regarding major decisions (e.g. the need to "go to war with Iraq").
This is only a small "subset" of the deceitful tactics of the Executive Branch of our government, and I realize that what I have summarized above will rub some folks the wrong way. Nevertheless, it needs to be said, and is a natural adjunct that needs to be appended herein.
God Help America.
On Feb 11 11:47 AM GEN X wrote:
> I hate to agree, but I agree with this article. Actually, I feel
> like I wrote it myself... as pessimistic as it is, I think it is
> the first article I have read in a while where I don't feel like
> the author can't see the forest because of the trees.
>
> Let's face it, the time for sugarcoating the predicament we're in
> with bailouts, TARPS, stimulus plans, etc. are all digging us a deeper
> hole than we're already in. If we think times are tough now, just
> wait another 3-5 yrs. Inflation will be a bitch and whatever people
> are saving now in terms of dollars will get them nothing in 5 yrs.
> Look at the federal reserve - once that capital hits circulation,
> the dollar is going to be used for nothing more than kindling for
> heating our homes.
>
> I understand that this article is going to rub a lot of people the
> wrong way. But THINK about it. Turn off your CNN for a minute and
> really think about the big picture - expand your thoughts and look
> at what the hell is going on. Read Ron Paul's "Revolution." Read
> Andrew Napolitano's "Nation of Sheep." Start to listen to the few
> thinkers left in America, and for once, maybe consider that CNN and
> the New York Times aren't always the basis of realism.
>
> We all need to start looking beyond what has been fed to us for the
> past 50 yrs and start thinking pragmatically. For the sake of the
> child I am about to bring into this world, and the author's sons,
> that is the favor, I believe, Mr. Quinn are asking of everyone.
>
>
>
As far as predicting the future, I give the author about as much credence as I would give anyone else, aboslutely none!
I have a teenage son. He has a high I.Q., but is clueless if I ask him about things he should have learned in school even though he gets good grades. I have to wonder what the heck they are teaching him. And he is above average compared to most of the mindless skull teenagers out there. These are the people that will run our country in the future. Scary stuff.
www.chrismartenson.com...
If after you watched all the chapters and you disagree about his theories on the economy, the environment and oil and resources, feel free to mark my comment down.
give the people what they want Jim then call yourself a prophet.
btw...markets were down 40% if you were long...in an era of eft's, utlra short eft's ultra short indexes and the idea of shorting stocks to wealth in every article of every business rag and every financial website for the last six months, the only people dowm 40% are the passive investors...the ones not reading the drivel on this site everyday anyway. Everyone else is minting money, there's never been a better time in the history of the stock market to throw darts at a list of stocks and short them. nothing immune, every short is making money.
get off your doomsday soapbox and go hug your kids, you know, the ones who will inherit a third world country in a few years.
That is a pathetic response. Mr. Quinn is sharing his well thought out and very interesting opinion and you have to bash and brag about your "11% gain". Get a life.
On Feb 11 08:31 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:
> Mr. Quinn:
>
> I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I finished last year with an 11%
> gain. Not great—but I am, after all, as my fellow investing friends
> call me, the Artful Dodger.
>
> If you’re a Boomer yourself, then you must either be one of the youngest
> of the generation (most of whom feel their older siblings soaked
> up everything before they had the opportunity) or you have a frontal
> lobe deformity (which would account for your cynicism and bitterness).
> In the former case, I’d say, get over it. And in the latter, there
> are drugs to aid this type of problem.
>
> Either way your writing betrays a bitter Boomer. In that respect,
> I’m very sorry for you and those who bear similar feelings.
>
> As to my last comment regarding your rant not helping readers in
> either investing or trading, it is certainly true. Is this not an
> investing blog, one meant to help folks with their investments and/or
> trades?
>
> There is no greed involved. I'm been investing in stocks since the
> mid-60s, and I take the wins and loses about the same. But when I'm
> trying to read investing info, that's what I want to find, especially
> on an investing blog.
>
> I monitor a biblical linguistic and language site, meant to assist
> folks in their bible studies.
>
> When someone strays from those subjects—much less goes on a generalized
> rant against a group he blames for the world’s problems—we don’t
> publish the articles.
>
> I suppose the editors at SeekingAlpha publish yours because they
> garner a lot of comments. Otherwise, I have no idea why they would
> bother. However, it is their blog, and they can certainly do as they
> please.
>
> Or, perhaps I'm wrong, and there's something worthwhile regarding
> investing and/or trading in your rant.
>
> Understand, I don’t care what you write about. I just don’t think
> this type of rant belongs on an investing site, Quinney me boy.
>
>
> With all respect, AD
On Feb 13 10:38 PM mwfall wrote:
> This guy takes bubble head babbling to a whole new level.
>
On Feb 14 03:17 AM Dean M wrote:
> lame lame lame.
On Feb 13 11:01 PM typopolice wrote:
> wow Jim feeding his ego with positive feedback on a negative article
> during one of the most negative periods in history...lol...ral tough
> to there jimbo.
>
> give the people what they want Jim then call yourself a prophet.
>
>
> btw...markets were down 40% if you were long...in an era of eft's,
> utlra short eft's ultra short indexes and the idea of shorting stocks
> to wealth in every article of every business rag and every financial
> website for the last six months, the only people dowm 40% are the
> passive investors...the ones not reading the drivel on this site
> everyday anyway. Everyone else is minting money, there's never been
> a better time in the history of the stock market to throw darts at
> a list of stocks and short them. nothing immune, every short is making
> money.
>
> get off your doomsday soapbox and go hug your kids, you know, the
> ones who will inherit a third world country in a few years.
It doesn't matter where you relocate... as long as there are many billions "without" and a few millions "with"; the millions will lose as soon as they storm the fortress. Just ask the French, anyone in Africa or South America or ?????
I don't agree with the 100 year cycle theory at all. Average life expectancy was in the 40-50s until the 1900s.
www.cdc.gov/nchs/fasta...
I do agree that our politicians are dooming us with the same broken policies of FDR
www.amazon.com/Forgott...
from the poem, Premonition by G. Santayana
"Till haply, lightning through the storm of ages,
Our sullen secret flash from sky to sky,
Glowing in some diviner poet's pages
And swelling into rapture from this sigh."
On Feb 11 03:44 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:
> Quinn wrote: "The public has lost faith in government..."
>
> The nation just elected a man who has promised government would do
> everything and fix everything. How is faith lost in government?
>
>
> This is just one of oodles of ridiculous statements in what is little
> more than a rant against Boomers.
>
> Hatred, envy, and bitterness hang predominantly over the article.
> There are very few specifics regarding what Quinn's evil Boomer Generation
> actually did wrong.
>
> Mr. Quinn, you must be the child of Boomers who perhaps divorced,
> bounced you back and forth between them, and one maybe even abused
> you.
>
> That's the only answer I can gather for blaming so many problems
> on one generation.
>
> How does this rant help us invest or trade?
On Feb 11 01:52 PM pasher wrote:
> I'm weary of generalizations made about generational differences.
> I'm Gen X/Y, & it seems me criticisms of boomers generally come
> from people with conservative politics whereas "the Greatest Generation"
> is rarely taken to task for its racism, xenophobia, ignorance and
> other fuck ups. Those negative characteristics of the greatest generation
> are overshadowed by surviving the depression, beating the nazis,
> blah blah blah.
>
> But what about Vietnam? Wasn't that one of the greatest blunders
> of the greatest generation that was paid for by the baby boomers??
> How about the kennedy assassinations? Racial Lynchings? How come
> nobody ever mentions those things?!
>
> I say this from the persepective of someone who worked on Wall Street
> during the dot com boom, who's lost people in 9/11, has served in
> both Iraq and Afghanistan, knows what war & bloodshed actually
> look like, but still manages to enjoy watching some of the Paris
> Hilton-like excesses of our culture, and still trying to wrap my
> head around the TMI-ness of Facebook, Myspace, and the internet in
> general...
> So retirement has to be postponed for many Americans- what's so bad
> about that?
Indeed. I'm 38 and have known since my early 20's that I wasn't going to have a 30-year retirement. The only reason anyone has it right now is because of Social Security, which is going to be used up by the time I reach the age of 60. Without a corrupt Ponzi scheme to prop it up, a 30-year retirement has NEVER been a realistic idea for ANYONE, except for a small handful of people who become wildly successful financially and manage to get millions socked away.
Stop and think for a minute about just how much money you would need to have in order to spend that much time not working. Most people don't save ANYTHING, let alone enough to stockpile that kind of cash. Sure, everyone had unrealistic expectations of stock market returns, but even then, you had to put something IN the stock market to get any return at all out of it. The average household income is something in the neighborhood of $40K a year. Are you kidding me? How in blazes are these people going to spend that many years getting by with no job? Forget about doing anything fun while you're at it.
There is simply no way anyone below the age of 50 can possibly accumulate that kind of money for our own retirements while we are pouring 15% of what we make into a Ponzi scheme that pays for everyone else's.
This is something I realized, got angry about, and then got over, a long time ago. This has allowed me to cope with a massive injustice and still keep a happy and positive attitude about life, but it does kind of irritate me in a way that my generation has come to accept this. We're making it way too easy on the government to swindle us, because they KNOW we've already lowered our expectations.
But I am fine with the idea that I'll never have a 30-year retirement, because I figured out that I can live cheap, save up money short-term, and take intermittent sabbaticals and do the things I want to do. I had to completely change careers and go into a different line of work to make it happen. But the good part of it is, I don't have to wait until I'm old to enjoy myself. As this author discusses:
www.amazon.com/Die-Bro...
there's something depressing about working nonstop through all the good years of life, only to reach the edge of a cliff and jump, thinking that now that you never have to work again, you can finally start having fun. It isn't going to bother me to have to work once in a while. I may never get to the point that I can take decades off work, but I can live cheap and at least get to the point where I don't have to work all the time. When I look around me at the old bluehairs living off my Social Security payments, I think they might be healthier and have less boring lives if they took the occasional gig working, too. They are wasting too much money at the casinos anyway.
> him.
If you don't know what "they" are teaching your own kid, you are part of the problem. You are his parent, not the school and not the government. It's your responsibility.
On Feb 11 10:56 AM User 224899 wrote:
> Boomers never evolved a will to win, and don't embrace the will to
> survive, which is necessary for a nation to adaptively prevail in
> a crisis.
>
> Having never matured enough to make the transition from liberal to
> conservative thinking, Boomers will lead America into a declining
> twilight period like the one "old Europe" is experiencing now: declining
> white atheist populations; expanding ethnic religious populations;
> Islam rising to dominance due to rapid population growth while genderless
> atheist whites don't bother to reproduce.
>
> In contrast to World War II, America will lose the current war (the
> smoldering, largely covert global jihad) because Boomers would rather
> hug and discuss than fight. Boomers cannot support a culturally shared
> love of home and love of national character, which carried the US
> and Britain to victory in WW II.
>
> Nobody will ever call Boomers "gritty" or "determined" or "honorable"
> or "courageous" or "noble" or "loyal" or "proud" or "bold" or "aggressive".
> In fact, Boomers run schools that punish boys for displaying those
> traits, and those are the very traits enable people to win wars and
> prevail during crises.
>
> Boomers cannot allow themselves to believe that it is right to fight
> a war for oil or coal or land, and absolutely refuse to fight a war
> over a religous belief, and will ultimately lose to those who still
> believe that it is right to do so.
On Feb 11 01:38 PM ManFromMars wrote:
> I find the article to be highly insightful. As a reasonably successful
> late 50s boomer, who never has utilized debt (save first, buy later),
> I totally concur with the description of the typical boomer as shortsighted.
> Government is at its essence corrupt - reelection is the curse of
> our system. Term limits on politicians is necessary to cure the problem
> - necessary but not sufficient?? To appreciate this just look at
> the current house "leadership" - ancient demagouges from totally
> uncompetitive districts. Polosi is the worst example of this. Would
> you hire this woman - be honest.
>
>
The fact is, the future could be bright, recession will slow down the pace of over development and Hardiboard production, will give the human race some time to think, experiment, and develop some alternatives to globalism, free trade, and office work. I predict a boom in American manufacturing, greenhouses, furniture building, small farms, small towns and the growth of localism. One thing's for sure, we will go on.
A jolt of positive thinking would help, even though it's easier to continue down the path of seemingly bitter analysis. There have been some positive ideas behind the world as it's developed over the last 20 years, pride of home ownership started off as a mild and good thing for instance, prior to becoming an obsession and economic nightmare.
If I was from the younger generations, I'd be mad at Boomers for making the world white collar by necessity. Now everyone is competitively tapping away on their keyboard for a living, many fewer are working for a living with their hands, etc. There's probably no going back for Gen. X, but maybe Y or today's children will find something more cherishable in nature and a way to live from it again. Sustainability and green talk still seem like abstractions at this point. There's got to be richer discussions of what we want for our futures and now's the time to have them.
And even though neither Harry Reid nor Nancy Pelosi are Boomers, one nasty thing I'll own up to as a Boomer, we are responsible for current gridlock in DC and the unbelievable hesitancy that was shown last fall when quick action and cooperation was needed to solve the credit crisis and possibly jolt things back to life. The national discussion of this current crisis has been incredibly disappointing. To some degree, I think Gen. X is partly culpable for providing ZERO backup or alternative ideas, but instead betting against everyone, as is their wont. (I can see this sentence in quotation marks).
For a bunch of college-educated "problem-solvers", the people since the Greatests have not done a good job on this latest crisis in particular. Maybe we've had too much of a good thing. Gee, I started off positive and have ended up dejected.
1) I agree with most of your statement. The exception is this: The younger generations will not be paying higher taxes in order to pay off the stimulus package. Barring the Powers That Be blocking the SWAP processes. The economy is soon to be stronger than anyone could hope for. As I proclaimed the Stimulus debt will be paid off in ten years with the tax revenues from the carbon fibers alone.
2) This is going to sound like the SWAP processes are the center of all, but something this big will have this kind of effect.
Bailing out the Bad Banks it would be less likely to concentrate the wealth vs letting them fail and thereby concentrating more wealth in the hands of the few survivors . (lesser of the two evils)
On the other hand:
Remember the lead/carbon batteries? I believe that the cost of the carbons needed will be very affordable thanks to the SWAP processes. That and carbon fiber car bodies should make electric cars safer and very competitive.
The SWAP processes used to generate electricity will make clean abundant and very cheap electricity for transportation energy of choice.
The SWAP processes make it possible to increase the capacity of our existing electric grid using the Right of Ways and towers already in place by replacing the heavy metal cable conductors with strong light weight high capacity carbon fiber cables. (less need for expensive Right of Way and Environmental development cost).
The list of benefits from the use of SWAP processes goes on and on.
3) Again the SWAP processes are Global processes that will bring
dollars home by way of license fees and royalties, thereby reducing
the need for protectionism.
4) No comment.
5) No comment
6) There is another possibility, The revenues generated from over 25
billion tons of carbon dioxide waste each year being combined with
other waste byproducts to make 25 + billion tons world wide each
year of valuable construction products will soon pay back the loans
need now AND put millions of workers back to work using all of that
new carbon fiber building material.
7) As soon as the short sellers are brought under control, real demand
for oil, coal and gas will occur through What else.....the use of the
SWAP processes to generate electricity more efficiently and produce
carbon fibers used to produce everything from light weight
electrically conducting cables for our new power grid and low cost
carbon for lead carbon batteries to car and aircraft bodies, high
strength light weight carbon armor plating, high strength extruded
carbon fiber tubing and even I beams for bridges & buildings.
Starting to get the picture?
8) The Military Industrial Complex will grow stronger.... Without a
doubt! But hopefully without a conflict to prove itself. The abundance
of strong economical carbon fibers for every aspect of our Industrial
Complex combined with all forms of clean economical energy and the
strongest economy ever known.......well need I say more?
9) Say what you want about Boomers, (sorry Ray there is no denighing
that you are a preboomer) the Boomers like me are making the
SWAP processes happen!
10) In light of the aforementioned, do you still think that the economy is
doomed?
11) Energy, NOT just Oil, is the lifeblood of our society. At the present
time anything can happen but given the good that is in the hearts
of the Baby Boomers and the SWAP processes we have a very
real opportunity for Peace on Earth!
12) GO HUG YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS, THE SOLUTIONS ARE
REAL!
Seeking Alpha normally publishes sane, credible pieces. Your puerile contribution merely diminishes the site.
Perhaps they're going tabloid.