Echostar's Sirius Power Play 85 comments
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For market outsiders who don’t relish the chess game of corporate finance, headlines don’t always excite. But bankruptcy headlines get noticed.
In the past few days, some of the most interesting news coming out has been centered on Echostar Corp’s (Nasdaq: SATS) power plays. It appears like it’s looking to take control of Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI).
Echostar was rebuffed in December from a takeover offer. Since then, Sirius XM has been struggling to refinance over $1 billion in debt due this year. If it can’t, it’ll look to go into bankruptcy for protection.
But like any good chess match, that hasn’t stopped SATS. They have been quietly buying up large portions of the Sirius debt.
To an outsider, that would look like a foolish move – buying up a near-bankrupt company’s debt. But it couldn’t be more brilliant in this case.
In bankruptcy situations, the debt holders are first in line for assets and can dictate terms of a break up. In addition, the bankruptcy will wipe out the remaining debt and equity from stockholders.
If Echostar can get Sirius into bankruptcy, it can walk away from the deal with all of its satellite assets, none of its shareholder obligations and for a low, low price of a few hundred million. Checkmate.
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This article has 85 comments:
hahaha yA RIGHT!@!!
You should be in the dumb article hall of shame for this piece of trash...What a dummy..
Right now Im looking at 4.1 million block of smart money buying up small lots of dumb money on level 2....Level 2 says your wrong, your dumb, and level 2 never lies...
Only about 100 better options for Sirius, and they have 100 percent control...Stock to sell, private investors who believe in Mel and not Ergin..Etc...OMG your so naive...Or criminal...Do you have any market experience? Is letting a beginner write articles that could affect millions of dollars of good peoples money a moral thing to do? Wow, I hope your editor gives you a lecture later..
Right now we dont need comments or one sided opinions....WE NEED FACTS!!!
Up the tail pipe again.
or so and they then went into BK.
As i have said many times their goal is to dump the debt thru BK and wipe
out old shareholders. Then when they emerge thru BK restructuring
they can bring in new money with new issues. With the debt gone and
old equity obligations off the books, Sirius becomes a goose with a
golden egg. The value of the assets, including subs. base, a $2.7 income
stream, future subs thru autos, and growth make the total value much
to high for a quick hostile takeover.
In the meantime, they keep the company under their management.
I don't know how many times I've laid out this scenario. Some said
I was off the mark. But as things are going it looks like that is the scenario.
Keep in mind, my whole premise was that they were operating on the greed principle. They saw the $2.7 bil revenue stream. A solid in this
economic environment. All they had to do was get rid of the debt and the
old stockholders. The only 2 options were private equity or BK. Private
equity is out because of the credit crisis. That only leaves BK.
There is no other option because the revenue is not enough to pay debt, there is no credit available, and a hostile takeover means they
lose the company.
I am sorry for all of us. It hurts to be shafted this way, especially because there was potential if the management had planned and run the company better. But their plans did not include the shareholders.
The reason this could be seen was that when the PS dropped the company could have easily bought the shares. But why would they when
they knew they would go BK.
I've said it before, dump the current shareholders and debt, save the company for the current management , and raise capital with new shareholders.
As far as lawsuits, it would take years and years. In the meantime they
rake in the $2.7 bil year after year. They drain the plaintiffs by stalling and stalling on legal issues.
Then when the company equity is returned they could easily cash out
with a bundle.
The writing is on the wall. It' sad for all of us. We got the shaft and we've
all lost a lot of money. I did try to express this before but I was always
put down. So anyhow, I don't see any other scenario. Maybe some of you do.
may side with management. Who else is going to be appointed with the
knowldege of the business. I'm sure they have a chance to remain the management.
I know people will be hostile to my scenario. I would just like to know what
the alternative scenario is.
If they don't pay the debt, they don't accept a hostile takeover, what is their move.
Relmor stated about a week ago that I would not be able to purchase shares at .08! I asked him if he had ever looked at a chart of SIRI? Now we are looking a the .05 range....what now?
On Feb 11 02:23 PM Sirius In Seattle wrote:
> ...and I just got my C/B down to $0.31. This sucks!
On Feb 11 05:05 PM Tavares wrote:
> If you are still holding on to this stock you are ignorant. You people
> yes I said you people were bashing me for getting out at 2.30 bragging
> about how this stock was going to turn around and hit 4.00 in a year.
> Now look at you peasants. Begging for crumbs that fall to the floor.
> Go down with the captain of this landfill dump company. Thank the
> FCC for this!
sports.yahoo.com/olymp...
Now while there is some truth to it, it is nowhere close to being true.
Second, Phillies77 I dont know where you are getting your information but the company now known as SIRIXM/SIRI never went bankrupt before. While they came close they were able to come up with the 1.3 billion in refinancing, they also diluted the hell out of it. You are talking about the 2001 and 2002 financing problems right because that was the only time they came close to it.
Would we be in this situation if the FCC approved the merger sooner?
The answer is "probably."
Long live Holmes..super bowl MVP! If you want to see some of my friends acting like retards go to you tube ....Steelers in Tampa.. We purchased a Fitgerald Jersey and ripped it into pieces..stomped it..poured some Pabst Blue Ribbon on it...good times. Parents were letting their four year olds stomp the jersey..we kind of started a riot. Watching an adorable four year old in a pink #7 Big Ben jersey jumping up and down a Cardinals jersy is something to see. Nice parenting! LOL
In other words, noone is attacking your opinion just asking you what you base it on. So far noone has said they sat next to Mel at lunch and he told me what was going on. That would be FACT! So far no one on either side has issued any statements but BK is being assumed and everyone thinks that thousands losing a substantial part of their savings and retirement is something to poke fun of. Until the idiots lose their jobs because these people dont have the money to buy the products their company sells. We are all AMERICANS here in the same boat!!!!
Ironic, TWO years exactly on Presidents day Feb 16, he announced the merger of both companies and taking on the massive debt of XM.
PALM went down end of November fro SP $6.50 to $1.20 and risk of bankrupcy. They get bailed with only $ 150 millions. Now trading SP $ 8.20
It sad that simple folks with foreclosures CAN NOT file bankrubcy and wipe out their debt.
But, F**** corporations can file chapter 11 in a New york second and wipe out shareholders and come clean with no debt.
Where is OBAMA's change and middle class protection, New SEC and treasury sec. I guess they are busy handing down our tax money to their Friends and ex-co workers in big banks and corporations.
I do NOT understand, why COURTS would allow them to wipe shareholders and start selling new shares to new investors, if the company continues bisness and does not liquidate???
On Feb 11 04:49 PM Phillies77 wrote:
> Yomann are you seriously going to compare Paramount/Viacom/MTV/B...
> with Sirius....When was that stock left to fall to pennies without
> support or at least real substantial announcements from ownership
> ? If BK is the end result for SIRI this was a real hack job and spineless
> in every way.and will be under a spotlight.......
O, and your post about the BK being ineviatable, dont want to scroll up to read your name dont care has a billion flaws...BK court does not eliminate one cent of debt...They can restructure it...but its still there..They can make debtors wait...But its still there...Once again, and I feel redundant, there is no magic wand to get rid of debt, you actually need money...The judge doesnt pay the debt for you ...Nor does the common anymore...Actually puts the company in a worse short term postition ...Long term yes, it can be beneficial...Why worse? No longer sell common stock, no longer get quick control to make decisions...Lawsuits..... mess, no one wants it..No one...
O, and your post about the BK being ineviatable, dont want to scroll up to read your name dont care has a billion flaws...BK court does not eliminate one cent of debt...They can restructure it...but its still there..They can make debtors wait...But its still there...Once again, and I feel redundant, there is no magic wand to get rid of debt, you actually need money...The judge doesnt pay the debt for you ...Nor does the common anymore...Actually puts the company in a worse short term postition ...Long term yes, it can be beneficial...Why worse? No longer sell common stock, no longer get quick control to make decisions...Lawsuits..... mess, no one wants it..No one...
Yes, they are buying the convertibles. It's debt now that pays interest, but upon maturity it swaps into stock. For the Feb tranche that is next week. So . . . if Ergen holds his debt and it converts to equity (which it automatically does), AND THEN SIRI declares BK, he only owns the stock and it is then worth a big fat 0.
Now he can't even trade out of the debt because Mel screwed him with the BK filing. So the debt went from being worth something to being worth almost nothing itself overnight.
Ergen is going to lose money and lots of it unless he wants to make a decent deal. He won't steal this, which is what he thought.
Mel get's it. In BK I doubt the court would let him keep much besides the hardware due to the FCC and the new administration. And there are a lot of other people in line and a lot of other people who can bid for the assets at that point in time.
He's F#$%ed. Any way you slice it he is going to pay or lose big.
Stock will price a deal that keeps Mel in charge with Echo as over riding partner and beneficial owner.
Echo will fund debt. They will figure the profit sharing scenario for future quarters and the stock will recover to around $.25 - $.50.
This will happen over the next week and the stock will continue to trade into the future under the same symbol.
Glad your back! Have you seen the latest news that Mel is in talks with Malone from Liberty Media and DirectTV. If they were to work out some kind of deal what do you think would happen? Link to the article is as follows: dealbook.blogs.nytimes...
I haven't been around in SIRI as long as most everyone else on this Blog, but I believe in what Sirius has to offer and its potential.
What the debate centered on was whether they would take shares at .14 (SP when story first broke) in exchange for the principal. 1,25 billion shares to pay off the feb debt.
On Feb 11 07:41 PM porcelain altar wrote:
> Investment blowhard. Here's where you need to go back to Chess school.
>
>
> Yes, they are buying the convertibles. It's debt now that pays interest,
> but upon maturity it swaps into stock. For the Feb tranche that is
> next week. So . . . if Ergen holds his debt and it converts to equity
> (which it automatically does), AND THEN SIRI declares BK, he only
> owns the stock and it is then worth a big fat 0.
>
> Now he can't even trade out of the debt because Mel screwed him with
> the BK filing. So the debt went from being worth something to being
> worth almost nothing itself overnight.
>
> Ergen is going to lose money and lots of it unless he wants to make
> a decent deal. He won't steal this, which is what he thought. <br/>
>
> Mel get's it. In BK I doubt the court would let him keep much besides
> the hardware due to the FCC and the new administration. And there
> are a lot of other people in line and a lot of other people who can
> bid for the assets at that point in time.
>
> He's F#$%ed. Any way you slice it he is going to pay or lose big.
>
>
> Stock will price a deal that keeps Mel in charge with Echo as over
> riding partner and beneficial owner.
>
> Echo will fund debt. They will figure the profit sharing scenario
> for future quarters and the stock will recover to around $.25 - $.50.
>
>
> This will happen over the next week and the stock will continue to
> trade into the future under the same symbol.
Liberty story is now over the main airwaves...News outlets whatever..You can read it and weap shorts...Bashers and dummies...
2 facts you cant help but cry about...
Sirius isnt stupid...
Sirius has the play..Not the bondholders...Mel wants to stay in power, and he will...DAAHAA
No bankrutpcy, never was going to happen, and never will happen...
Not bad at all...Might by more tomorrow if the fools let me...OOO i hope they dooo. I can get my average in in single digits that way...With # of shares I have I can afford to send Short and Stubby a boohoo bucket for his tears when it hits even .15 cents.... LOL LOL LOL
Looks like the stock might be headed up tomorrow.....you were right on the money!
You are either the smartest man in the world or completely delusional. Time will tell.
You are either the smartest man in the world or completely delusional. Time will tell.
After that is called "in the money" LOL
Take that bashers...Your lost your shares and you want mine...You can have them...for 1 each...
Make that TWO cars, I agree with siri4life. By the way relmar have you seen how your ratings have gone up? The bashers can't touch you!
On Feb 11 08:15 PM siri4life wrote:
> You are one of the main reasons I keep buying this stock. If it does
> NOT go bankrupt we shall meet one day and I will buy you any car
> your little heart desires
Listen...
I was on these boards telling eveyone the merger would pass, its a done deal...What I didnt know were the terms...Sorry..Greed got me..But fear will never...I dont lose to fear...Greed maybe ...LOL
Ill be scared when an employee of Sirius with a name is saying BK or I see the filing...Then Ill be scared, but i STILL WONT SELL..Thats the thing..Its got legs usually anyway...
I wont buy anymore...LOL Thats for sure...
I am not the smartest man in the world, or the most delusional..Im just honestly calling it as i see it...I was right about the merger... I fought basher after basher about that telling me no way, never going to happen...I knew the law, I knew the players, and I knew it would pass..Problem was when I was so up in the green I didnt sell becuase of greed...Before I understood the terms of the merger, by stock was underwater...I sold slowly after that as it leaked away..First sell was under a dollar however...Last one was over .38 cents...I did terrible..>But i perserved capital for the end game...And im using it here, now...The end is near...Not going much cheaper ...Buy here or you lose the game...Might only hit .15 cents..who knows...My I sold out at .19 cents...I rebought too high, but I was trying to play the game..They used a new piece I wasnt ready for..BK leaked rumors from companies are very rare...Not ready for that..I was ready for back to .11 cents though..Just not .05 ...but luckily Its so cheap I could afford to take advantage of it..Dont be afraid to buy at these levels..Be afraid to sell at them...As ive stated a million times...If you bought over .50 cents now..no point selling...I had said over 1, but it keeps dropping!!!Time to sell has past, YOu lost that round, dont lose the war!!!!
Long Sirius
Short short and stubby
And long my dong!!!!
By the time you read most news stories about a stock, its already been priced in...They use that to generate.......VOLUME.... is how stocks are distributed...Has anyone used teh Accumulation/Distribut... chart on a stock before? Anyone know why they use those terms? Because thats how money is made, on the distribution of stocks from smart money....to dumb money(or spec money)....
Only one winner...And one loser...every time...You want to be the winner? Dont read dishrags, and dont listen to people like me or people like Round and Stubby...We both have agendas, both present facts, but both are biased, and cant help it...Use your own brains...Read every article, but read them with a worldview that allows some part of your brain to think for itself...Ask yourself...WHy was this written? Why was it released now? Who was this written for? Buy on the rumor? Sell on the news? Is this a rumor or news? Rumor? Then buy...More than likely your right...
If you didnt know and done your homeworkd and knew that sirius already paid off 175 million of the Feb debt. you might have read the WSJ article and gone wow...COH was around 400..they owe 300..Hmmm maybe they are in troublle...And you sell your shares...But you have all the facts, you know the rules, and your not going to be fooled...Your going to make up your own mind, with your own set of risk/reward variables, and your not going to allow fear to run your finances...Or greed for that matter....A wise investor once said...You cant go broke taking a profit.....
sfsdfsfaja
com....)
and click on the gold forum...People in there(a few) have taught me a lot...
Heres some fun...Take any stock with news...Chart it...
One side note the price of the stock...Next note news articles about that stock...Click them as negative news...posititive news or neutral news...Then notice how the news affects the price...Does negative stock news(even blogs) affect what a stock does...Does good news affect how a stock does...Do this with a few companies...Start reading between the lines...and find out whos giving good advice, and who gives bad advice...If you see a stock jumps after goo dnews ,, then back again...its probably using that article to generate volume to distribute shares...Remember how the banks and freddie mac were well caplitalized, and the banks and Freddie stocks were soaring..>Then BAM...AH government take over...3 dollars to .10 cents....No warning..>Thats how it works...AIG>.No warning..They were fine one day before tehy were begging for money...Go see ...Go back and read old articles following AIG...See how many rags gave investors the foresight to pull there shares days before they became almost worthless..
On Feb 11 08:31 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> A bunch of numbers, cos1000 and sl62 are smarter than me...They know
> more about financing and books...But I know the media...Ive been
> studying how the media works for years...I watch and read very closely,
> and relate concepts I see in play..I am good at judging lies, and
> how the media uses diction...(english degree, writer)..I know language,
> and how the markets work...I understand how companies work, and how
> volume works...If you think news drives most stocks your wrong...Technicals
> drive most stocks, and then the market...News makes about 10-20 percent
> difference...50% drop on a rumor is hogwash..No facts to support
> it, and no fundamentals either...IT will go back up on no news...
>
> By the time you read most news stories about a stock, its already
> been priced in...They use that to generate.......VOLUME.... is how
> stocks are distributed...Has anyone used teh Accumulation/Distribut...
> chart on a stock before? Anyone know why they use those terms? Because
> thats how money is made, on the distribution of stocks from smart
> money....to dumb money(or spec money)....
> Only one winner...And one loser...every time...You want to be the
> winner? Dont read dishrags, and dont listen to people like me or
> people like Round and Stubby...We both have agendas, both present
> facts, but both are biased, and cant help it...Use your own brains...Read
> every article, but read them with a worldview that allows some part
> of your brain to think for itself...Ask yourself...WHy was this written?
> Why was it released now? Who was this written for? Buy on the rumor?
> Sell on the news? Is this a rumor or news? Rumor? Then buy...More
> than likely your right...
> If you didnt know and done your homeworkd and knew that sirius already
> paid off 175 million of the Feb debt. you might have read the WSJ
> article and gone wow...COH was around 400..they owe 300..Hmmm maybe
> they are in troublle...And you sell your shares...But you have all
> the facts, you know the rules, and your not going to be fooled...Your
> going to make up your own mind, with your own set of risk/reward
> variables, and your not going to allow fear to run your finances...Or
> greed for that matter....A wise investor once said...You cant go
> broke taking a profit.....
You can put me on what appears to be a pretty good list of supporters. I haven't been here long but getting into the Stock market game is becoming pretty fun and educational reading the comments you post. Anyone else for buying shares in relmar? I think that stock might just sore!
You have 5 large mm;s
They have 100 customers demanding SIrius shares as cheap as they can get them...
How do you do this without driving up the price? Hmmmm...You just saw how silly geese...They all work together...There after your money...They know you wont buy here, they want you to SELL HERE....
I second your sentiment on Relmar. He's got the touch and he isn't afraid to teach us a thing or two...I've been a slient watcher for a while but I always read his posts.
I second your sentiment on Relmar. He's got the touch and he isn't afraid to teach us a thing or two...I've been a slient watcher for a while but I always read his posts.
Silent watching was the name of my game for quite a while, but things have just been getting too good lately and I had to post a few. I just enjoy all the knowledge that is posted and I think this relmar offers a lot.
RELATED QUOTES
4:00 PM ET 2/11/09
Symbol Last % Chg
SIRI 0.06 -51.71%
LINTA 3.33 -0.30%
SATS 15.15 -3.81%
Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sirius XM Radio Inc. is in preliminary talks with Liberty Media Corp., in a move that could spark a bidding war for Sirius between Liberty and fellow suitor EchoStar Corp. , according to a media report late Wednesday. The online edition of the New York Times, citing unnamed sources, reported that the talks between Sirius and Liberty are "preliminary." Meanwhile, Sirius Chief Executive Mel Karmazin "has been locked in talks" with EchoStar CEO Charles Ergen over a possible deal, according to the report. Sirius shares were hit hard Wednesday by reports that the satellite-radio company is considering filing for bankruptcy.
We are on the same wave length. It has been getting interesting.
I just got off the fence and started posting as well, but Relmar is good.....so are cos1000 and sl62 and they all help us understand what is going in this mess.
Relmar the only thing is you need to keep your cool at bit more witht he bashers. They are just trying to get under your skin and you sometimes let them see you mad. Just ignore the MF.
But the logic for the past week is correct. SP has doubled and then halved without one shred of concrete news and the volume has been crazy.
Personally I doubt there are any shorts left. Buttheads who sold on smoke and mirrors let them have their shares.
What do you think about the noise with Liberty? Do you think we are going to catch a break or is this another rag spouting out crap trying to get volume as you say?
Our new buyin were for levels we thought obtainable...This company has screwed the longs(o excuse me he got pissed on the dilution and R/S vote..) wow no one complains about that anymore do they..LOL See how times have changed.. New rules...1.20...90 cents...New rules..>More dilution, r/s..new rules...Echostar buying debt...new rules...BK scare..New rules...Everytime the rules change, you have to be ready...You must play this stock now at these levels...Do anything different is naive...The bump we get now might just be to .15...Or it could be 2 dollars..I have no idea...But if its to .15 you have to recognize it as the end game...To know the end game you need to know the rules...What are the new rules?
BK is on the table..
Buy out offers are coming..
Mel is on a timeline...
News coming...
Price....055 cents...
Play the new price...
Is .03 cents the bottom(touched briefly)...? If it is...IF it is...and you think it is...Whats the new ceiling...? Hmmm Maybe you need to buy here to make sure the new rules ceiling isnt .20 cents...etc...Market cap market cap market cap...What is sirius worth? I told you months ago to find out...And give that as a reasonable price target...Anything else is "static"//
can mel continue to screw the longs? Yes..but not the stockholders...Remembe... most insitutions bought sub .50 cents...
The true longs have already been screwed...Will he screw the new longs? I dont think so...Hes one of them..And so is his board...and apollo averaged down..and a ton of investors bought more..bondholders bought stock for debt...etc...
Well said and goodnight!
Relmar, cos1000, and sl62, MAYBeMayBeNot
If Siris can get by Feb do you think it has a chance of being sustainable? After all we have been through I don't want to see at $0.20 and see it go to $3 later!
My crystal ball is broken what about yours?
If more people got mad, CEO pay wouldnt have been were it was...our politicians would do what is right..and the media wouldnt be lying to us anymore..No coolhead, I want YOU to get mad...
I have noticed that both cos1000 and sI62 have been posting some really great stuff as well. Just want to thank all three of them. As far as Relmar loosing his cool, he does seem to let the bashers get under his skin a bit, but he usually pummels them with facts, analysis and of course good old fun language. Rock on Relmar!
Should we write to our Senators and Congressmen about how over 6 billions of investors money disappeared by Mel K.? When he said in justifying Merger exactly 2 years ago that merger would save over 10 billion dollars in synergies !!
Do Share holders have any say in stopping BK or Mel decision in refusing any offers?
Im mad as hell, and im not going to take it anymore!!!
Thats what everyone needs to say to each other these days...
Whatever the cause..Even if its a clerk talking on the phone while ringing you up...Get mad...Make them a better employee... Or it just lets them know there are consquences to their behavior...Credit card company wont lower your rates..Get mad...Get mad every chance you get...Just dont forget to relax later...and enjoy your family...:) Peace...
You are right......if we get mad and stop letting them run the show things would be different. I'm with you.
I just hate seeing you have to change your name becuase you get blocked. We need you and cos1000, and sl62, MAYBeMayBeNot on this blog.
Have a good night and see you bright eyed and bushy tailed tomorrow.
Mel Karmazine has one final trick up his sleeve.
First to start off; on the Howrd Stern Show, Sal mentioned that he spoke with karmazine, and karmazine stated that the report or talks of bankruptcy were not executed by anyone with in sirius/xm. This information was leaked by a second party.
Secondly sirius/xm is in talks with liberty media/direct TV to get them out of the take over.
BK isn't likely to happen and more than likely the agreement with liberty media and sirius/xm is more than likely to happen. Last thing libety media needs is for Ergen to take over sirius/xm, and taking control of the sat TV industry.
Let me guess.... it doesn't fit your self-educated calculations. Hard to explain how this love-stock could treat you so bad, isn't it? Just can't imagine Mel & Co. make you look like complete hot-air buffoons. Shocking. And all the cheerleaders who rooted you on..... how could your limited wisdom let them down like that? Kind of hard to imagine which is the bigger fool now. Is it the leader..... or the follower?
Perhaps you all need a group hug..... to tell each other every thing is going to be all right and Mel is going to coming riding in and save you all from humiliation. Try to razzle dazzle each other by throwing a bunch of fancy Wall Street words and acronyms around.... and then make claims how SIRI is testing a new low, so other new readers think you really know what you are talking about, when really you & I know better, and know you don't have a clue. Good luck with running your mouth much more than your ears.
Maybe next time those fakes won't be so eager to criticize others. Maybe now they will understand that Mel doesn't give the first flying flip about them and all their flag waving.
Please, and you know which ones I am talking to, please explain how this happened to such market scholars as yourself?
On Feb 11 05:03 PM 04251961 wrote:
> I agree with dayworker except for 1 thing.Sirius has filed BK before
> and there is a lot of people who do not believe the satrad is a viable
> concept. The existing shareholders, i would presume would not be
> taking any chances on buying anymore stock. I personaly own 15000
> shares at 4.50 per share and I will not buy any in the restructured
> company. You know the old saying fool me once shame on you, fool
> me twice....................