Sirius XM: Working on Debt, But Not Out of the Woods 235 comments
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It is not the February debt that made the news today, but rather some of the XM debt from December of this year. Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) announced that XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., its wholly-owned subsidiary, had exchanged approximately $172.5 million aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 10% Convertible Senior Notes due December 2009 for a like principal amount of its newly issued Senior Secured Notes due 2011. An aggregate of $400 million in principal amount of the 10% Convertible Senior Notes due December 2009 was outstanding prior to this transaction.
In simple terms:
- There was $400 million in debt that was due in December of this year.
- The company exchanged $172.5 million of the debt thereby extending the due date until 2011.
- The new notes also went from senior convertible to senior secured (gives the holder more security).
- $227.5 million worth of the original $400 million remains as it was prior to the transaction.
- Unless or until registered, the notes or shares can not be sold. The party that worked the deal with Sirius XM has not been identified.
- Charles Ergen was making efforts to obtain some of the December debt. Whether this move was with Ergen or not is not known. However, this move does take away leverage from the Ergen activities if it was not with Ergen as it extends the deadlines.
The company has not backed away from a possible bankruptcy, and speculation is that they could file as early as Tuesday, February 17th, if they are unable to take care of their obligations on the February 2009 debt due the same day. The company needs a bit less than $180 million to take care of the February debt.
From an investor's standpoint, the extension of some of the debt is good news. However, the immediate concern is the February debt, and as yet there is no resolution on this matter. This leaves investors in a bit of a dicey situation, and perhaps a long weekend of mulling over their investment strategies.
Meanwhile news continues about discussion with both Ergen as well as Liberty. Ergen wants control, and the Liberty plan would not involve control.
Some may assume that the February debt may be a done deal because the company is announcing restructuring of December debt. I would caution that this is not a foregone conclusion. Ergen was obtaining February debt for leverage. He gets no leverage by extending the February due date, and perhaps will not even sit at the table to discuss anything other than control. The February debt is still up in the air, and until something is announced on that specific issue, investors should be prepared for anything over the next few days.
Disclosure: Long Sirius XM Radio
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This article has 235 comments:
On Feb 13 03:32 PM Phillies77 wrote:
> Tyler...Who are these "ghost" sources saying SIRI is not backing
> away from a possible bankruptcy....??....I am hearing SIRI is flat
> out denying it....The stock is showing you something different than
> what you are reporting....Any of your personal portfolio go up 50%
> today on BK news ?.....Let's start naming sources or representatives
> who are talking BK
On Feb 13 03:32 PM Phillies77 wrote:
> Tyler...Who are these "ghost" sources saying SIRI is not backing
> away from a possible bankruptcy....??....I am hearing SIRI is flat
> out denying it....The stock is showing you something different than
> what you are reporting....Any of your personal portfolio go up 50%
> today on BK news ?.....Let's start naming sources or representatives
> who are talking BK
Read the press release from Sirius. They say they could file as early as Feb. 17. It is a real possibility. Deal with it.
USMC 73-77
USN 81-92
USA (Ohio ANG) 06-present
I went fg from E-5 to E-3 going from USMC to USN
I kept E-6 when I joined the Guard.
Just returned from OIF with 37th IBCT (ONG)
On Feb 13 03:36 PM 163888 wrote:
> mogami_99 I read you were in the Corp. what was you MOS. Did you
> get promoted when you transfered to the Army?
On Feb 13 03:54 PM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, I was a 0844 (Field Arty Firecontrol) My service record is confusing
>
> USMC 73-77
> USN 81-92
> USA (Ohio ANG) 06-present
> I went fg from E-5 to E-3 going from USMC to USN
> I kept E-6 when I joined the Guard.
> Just returned from OIF with 37th IBCT (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
>
You got a double, sell half, your in for free........ This is your kids talking..... you can always add more later... don't gamble.
On Feb 13 03:49 PM I'm not Jim Cramer wrote:
> I am going to do the most stupid thing I have ever done in 10 years
> of investing. Doubled down at .0571 and am now sitting on an 85%
> gain! God help me I am holding for the weekend. If my kids ever
> did something like this I would take their money from them and tell
> them they weren't smart enough to manage it for themselves. LOL
On Feb 13 03:58 PM cos1000 wrote:
> INJC,
> You got a double, sell half, your in for free........ This is your
> kids talking..... you can always add more later... don't gamble.
>
On Feb 13 03:49 PM I'm not Jim Cramer wrote:
> I am going to do the most stupid thing I have ever done in 10 years
> of investing. Doubled down at .0571 and am now sitting on an 85%
> gain! God help me I am holding for the weekend. If my kids ever did
> something like this I would take their money from them and tell them
> they weren't smart enough to manage it for themselves. LOL
If the company does not announce BK on tuesday you can get back in and make money. If your already in money it is too risky. They waited all day for news. I did not sell but I may regret it. SP never reached my buy prices (if it had I might have sold)
On Feb 13 03:58 PM cos1000 wrote:
> INJC,
> You got a double, sell half, your in for free........ This is your
> kids talking..... you can always add more later... don't gamble.
>
I can't believe I wasted my time finding the link for you. But here it is:
investor.sirius.com/re...
Last sentence in the 4th paragraph. Now who needs to get their facts straight?
On Feb 13 03:55 PM Phillies77 wrote:
> Doobz...That was said before the debt restructure....so get your
> facts straight.....and it was a smart thng to do to keep the SP in
> check.....Now today you still have WSJ and Reuters "looping" the
> same BK BS....is the stock responding like it is facing BK ?....Hope
> you are a short....
On Feb 13 04:17 PM Doobz26 wrote:
> Phillies77,
>
> I can't believe I wasted my time finding the link for you. But here
> it is:
>
> investor.sirius.com/re... <br/>
>
> Last sentence in the 4th paragraph. Now who needs to get their facts
> straight?
Take info below on the refinanced debt from DEC. for what its worth. But you have to ask yourself why they would accept shares that become toilet paper if SIRI declares BK?
"The purchasers of the new Senior Secured Notes will be paid an aggregate structuring fee of $9.45 million, $5.07 million of which was paid in cash and $4.38 million of which was paid in the form of shares of the Company's common stock based on the closing sales price of the Company's common stock on February 12, 2009, which was $0.074 per share."
Still Long...still bullish on SIRI!
Well no s--t......
That is not the same as Mel or a Board member saying publicly that BK is being considered...it is purely a legal disclaimer that would be part of any filing like this....Thanks for you effort Doobz and I am sure you are a nice person...but you only proved my point....
I hope they don't make us wait for news all weekend.
On Feb 13 04:35 PM Doobz26 wrote:
> I think we are all, at least all who have been in this thing for
> a while, a bit skeptical. We'll believe it when we see it. We've
> been burned and suffered for a long time now. I need to see that
> everything is taken care of or restructured before I can accept that
> BK is out of the picture for now. Things certainly do look better
> today than they did yesterday. If Wall St. was confident BK was not
> an optioin the stock would be trading a lot higher than .10. There
> is still doubt in many people's minds. We will know before market
> opens on Tuesday.
I apologize for referring to an official company press release that was also cited by most every major news agency covering the issue. I'm not sure what your point was... anyways. Who are your sources that are saying BK is out? If you haven't noticed there are no board members or CEOs saying anything on the issue. Just some random leaks from unnamed sources.
I think the street is not quite sure at this point. Somewhat optimistic... but you could see the spike after the news was announced and then the flat line when everyone realized it was the December debt that was re-structured and Feb debt still needs to be addressed.... along with Sirius "legal disclaimer" that they could file BK as early as Tuesday morning, which the media seemed to enjoy printing everywhere.
On Feb 13 04:21 PM skyking wrote:
> Yo Cos ....went in for 125K @ 5.8 ish....riding it down to the end....Been
> in and out for 4 years...love the stock...love the product...perhaps
> ahead of its time...certainly downtrodden...(FCC-NAB etc)...Mels
> going to give it his all....Thanks for helping us keep the faith...I
> hope to see you all Wednesday on the other side......still above
> 10...Its time to warm up the songbird and fly into the sunset
10% Convertible Senior Notes due December 2009 for a like principal amount of its newly issued Senior Secured Notes due 2011
The purchasers of the new Senior Secured Notes will be paid an aggregate structuring fee of $9.45 million, $5.07 million of which was paid in cash and $4.38 million of which was paid in the form of shares
So out of $13.52M in fees only $4.38M is in shares and you now have a Senior Secured position rather than a Convertible Senior Unsecured note. That's why they did it..........
On Feb 13 04:28 PM rtatp31 wrote:
> asm61064- thats been the consenus amongst most everyone here that
> gives a ray of hope---why would anyone take common stock when the
> threat of BK is looming--doesnt make sense unless they already know
> its a done deal.
On Feb 13 05:06 PM cos1000 wrote:
> The reason why you would take the shares, is because they also renegotiated
> the note that you hold for a better position in line should SXM file
> BK and they were paid Cash & Shares for the restructuring in the
> form of fees. They exchanged:
>
> 10% Convertible Senior Notes due December 2009 for a like principal
> amount of its newly issued Senior Secured Notes due 2011
>
> The purchasers of the new Senior Secured Notes will be paid an aggregate
> structuring fee of $9.45 million, $5.07 million of which was paid
> in cash and $4.38 million of which was paid in the form of shares
>
>
> So out of $13.52M in fees only $4.38M is in shares and you now have
> a Senior Secured position rather than a Convertible Senior Unsecured
> note. That's why they did it..........
>
> On Feb 13 04:28 PM rtatp31 wrote:
And then there are buyers taking a chance at getting in at under .11 in advance of good news this weekend
Over all price is up from close.
Much too much risk right now if you already had a profit you could take.
For those above todays close we have little choice but to hold over weekend.
The only option was to say "enough" and take what was left and go else where.
If we crash this weekend we wll regret not being able to accept defeat.
But I think most of us have accepted that long ago and are now holding because the worst has already occured. What difference between taking .10 today or .04 tuesday?
On Feb 13 05:12 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Not to be a downer, but a realist, I cannot argue with Doobz26's
> skepticism and realistic approach to what's in front of us..... It
> does look better today, there are signs of life, but we need Feb
> 09 debt taken care of before BK is off the table next week. We need
> The Bank Credit facility rolled over to a date in at least June 2010,
> and that will take it off the table probably for the whole year if
> we can get the stock price up and autos turn around.
On Feb 13 05:10 PM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, Not to mention 60 million shares that gain .05 net 3 million
> instant cash profit and you can still sell the bond.
>
>
> On Feb 13 05:06 PM cos1000 wrote:
What you just explained seems even more reason as to them not going BK next week. They would have an awful lot of explaining to do as to why they made that deal the Friday before they went BK. It would stink all the way to DC!
On Feb 13 05:35 PM asm61064 wrote:
> cos 1000,
>
> What you just explained seems even more reason as to them not going
> BK next week. They would have an awful lot of explaining to do as
> to why they made that deal the Friday before they went BK. It would
> stink all the way to DC!
.I never said BK was out...although based on todays news/dealings I do not see BK in the cards at all...I still feel the BK story was a smart leak to keep the SP down until SIRI could work out all of the restructuring...How bad would it have been to restructure debt and finalize pricing of converts with the stock price soaring.....As you said all we have heard are random leaks...and that was my point about Tylers article..it is always unnamed sources..
even with that disclaimer...they would have an awful lot of explaining to do giving ANYONE 5 MIL when they are talking about not having the funds to get past February debt. It makes zero sense to be spending like this when they can't pay the Feb debt anyway. As I said earlier...it would stink all the way to DC. Also they haven't made anything with the shares...and I'm sure there is some sort of restriction on selling them.
The Company is in discussions with others with respect to transactions that could refinance some of its and its subsidiaries' indebtedness. These transactions may not be successfully consummated.
This was in the caution about still needing to file BK not the rejection of the Senior Secured Transaction. Asm61064 may be more correct, with an SEC / DOJ investigation being more in order if what I defined above is the motive and a BK is filed anyway. Would seem someone got some protection first, bettering the BK position, before a BK had to be filed. Very Interesting to say the least..... And good point ASM6.
Enjoy the weekend!
Best of luck to all---Keep the faith!!!
Long SiriusXM
On Feb 13 05:48 PM Zealonsunited wrote:
> Guys, I have been reading from different places that Ergen offered
> $1.37/ per share in Dec. Is that true?
What are you talking about?? Where in Great Spirits GD It.... Why is everyone ...... just kidding have a great weekend and I hope we are all in good spirits also...... : )
Just want to let you and 163888 (bunch of numbers) know that I appreciate your service. I was AC Army from 99-06, 06 to present full time RC Army. Haven't been in as long as many here, but averaged out at a little over the .10 mark and decided to hold on for the hopeful good news next week. Hurry up and wait time now!
On Feb 13 03:55 PM mogami_99 wrote:
> Oh forgot, I was a GMG (gunnersmate guns) in Navy
Patrick Henry - 1773
"Give me Liberty or give me debt"
Mel Karmazin - 2009
Patrick Henry - 1773
"Give me Liberty or give me debt"
Mel Karmazin - 2009 Feb 13 06:10 PM |Report abuse| Link | Reply 00
Patrick Henry - 1773
"Give me Liberty or give me debt"
Mel Karmazin - 2009
On Feb 13 06:12 PM chicagogary wrote:
> Give me Liberty or give me Death"
>
> Patrick Henry - 1773
>
> "Give me Liberty or give me debt"
>
> Mel Karmazin - 2009
I'm not any smarter.... I'm wiser......
no matter what though......... I'm definitely loosing my boyish figure.... gravity works my friends..... no matter what you do...
they didn't tell me when I was younger that your ears and nose keep growing either.... life is tough man..
By the Way ....... Staff Sargent reporting for duty Sir.... USAF..... 6 years active..... honorable out in 1981. Avionics Tech. Comm / NAV / Flight Controls, Lochheed Tech Rep after, Motorola Gov. Eng., Microwave Comm Tech., now I blog for a living........
Sorry about the Overshare...........
On Feb 13 05:59 PM 163888 wrote:
> mogami_99, hey you are almost as old as cos1000, I was an 0211, S-2,
> Intelligence anaylst with. I dont know why you went into the sister
> service though.
quote from "Cross of Iron"
"dirt and a combination of body oils will make you water-proof"
On Feb 13 06:16 PM cos1000 wrote:
> I'm not old..... I'm mature....,
> I'm not any smarter.... I'm wiser......
>
> no matter what though......... I'm definitely loosing my boyish figure....
> gravity works my friends..... no matter what you do...
>
> they didn't tell me when I was younger that your ears and nose keep
> growing either.... life is tough man..
>
> By the Way ....... Staff Sargent reporting for duty Sir.... USAF.....
> 6 years active..... honorable out in 1981. Avionics Tech. Comm /
> NAV / Flight Controls, Lochheed Tech Rep after, Motorola Gov. Eng.,
> Microwave Comm Tech., now I blog for a living........
>
> Sorry about the Overshare...........
Thank you for your service..... these are tougher times than most for active service..... thanks again....
I graduated from HS a year before you went in at 17 and I didn't go in until I was 19. How old am I ? Just kidding, I just turned double nickels.....
Maybemaybe...
I can only tell you that the private sector doesn't come with any guarantees either...... if you know what I mean. Looking back, as revisionist history is well known for, the service was a pretty good gig for me, but not so much for my young family. Unless that's changed that's the sacrifice that's out of your control. It's not a bad decision when it's just you....... if their good with it, tell them what it is again... then decide.
On Feb 13 06:43 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Mogammi,
>
> I graduated from HS a year before you went in at 17 and I didn't
> go in until I was 19. How old am I ? Just kidding, I just turned
> double nickels.....
>
> Maybemaybe...
>
> I can only tell you that the private sector doesn't come with any
> guarantees either...... if you know what I mean. Looking back, as
> revisionist history is well known for, the service was a pretty good
> gig for me, but not so much for my young family. Unless that's changed
> that's the sacrifice that's out of your control. It's not a bad decision
> when it's just you....... if their good with it, tell them what it
> is again... then decide.
On Feb 13 06:51 PM MAYBEMayBeNot wrote:
> Family's very supportive and I love serving, just needing a break
> for a bit, but definitely plan on staying the course whether it be
> reserve or active.
>
>
> On Feb 13 06:43 PM cos1000 wrote:
BREAKING NEWS....
www.nypost.com/seven/0......
Good news if its true...
NY post not the best...
John Malone's Liberty Media is offering Sirius XM a bridge loan of several hundred million dollars to help the nearly insolvent satellite-radio company pay off debt that matures Tuesday, The Post has learned.
According to a source close to the situation, the loan is part of a two-step approach that Liberty wants to take as it looks to bail out Sirius XM, which is struggling to make its debt payment and fend off takeover maneuvers from EchoStar CEO Charlie Ergen.
As part of the plan, Liberty would provide Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin enough cash to replay $175 million in debt that Ergen currently holds and is due Tuesday.That then would give Liberty three months to come up with a plan to restructure Sirius XM's roughly $600 million in debt that comes due in May and in December.
One scenario could involve Liberty borrowing from Ergen's playbook by buying up Sirius XM debt on the open market. Another involves Liberty making a pitch directly to Sirius XM's bondholders.
Keeps them in play and buys them time
Puts Ergen out on his ass.
This stock might be valued by wall street at around .50 cents now.
But that might be wishful thinking.
Id be happy with .25 for now.
.50 after they report a good showing.
1 if they pay May
1.50 if they clear dec.
Last: $ .1199 After Hours
High: $ .12
After Hours
Volume: 5,010,490 After Hours
Low:
After Hours
Last: $ .12 After Hours
High: $ .125
After Hours
Volume: 5,302,932 After Hours
Low: $ .10
This story makes sense, and is as reliable as any we have seen.
Im not sure.
I would think its probably true. NY post would not print something THIS big without some due dilegence. I would hope. Its actually detail oriented, and specific. Doesnt look like something someone was theorizing, or piecing together. But a specific detailed report of some kind. Probably too early for details, this reporter wanted the credit on breaking the story possibly..
DOnt believe everything you read, so we wait..
Long SiriusXM
Here's the link www.nypost.com/seven/0...
From the movie White Men Cant Jump
Thanks for the link..... so how does that go Hoorah! we just gave a fist punch or something like that..... and always new when they landed that we and they lived to fight another day......
Mel looks like Rothlisberger in the super bowl....triple coverage to Santonio....I will squeeze it in!
Long SiriusXM
On Feb 13 08:19 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Maybemaybenot,
>
> Thanks for the link..... so how does that go Hoorah! we just gave
> a fist punch or something like that..... and always new when they
> landed that we and they lived to fight another day......
On Feb 13 08:19 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Maybemaybenot,
>
> Thanks for the link..... so how does that go Hoorah! we just gave
> a fist punch or something like that..... and always new when they
> landed that we and they lived to fight another day......
Looks like the article addresses the May and December debt.
Long Sirius
This stock will get stopped and reversed again dont worry.
Thats why a buying and selling strategy from here on will still be needed to recoup losses for anyone who bought over $1.
I am formulating possible price targets now based on TA, something that many traders right now might be looking at.
TRADERS will drive this stock up tomorrow, and it will appear to be going higher than it will settle at when the smoke clears, and the traders exit.
I dont feel there will be a short squeeze, because Ive said all along they got out already. There are gone the last 15 days to cover it on the SI reports.
www.nypost.com/busines...
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Sirius SH: since 2006
Your moving over to the latest Link, took me over to a great old debate I had with jswede back in August 2008. Good to reminder and I don't think I'd change much but not current.
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
They might try a slow leak tactic...To convince people this news is not necessarily make Sirius still a good stock to own..
The could gap it..Phasing out a ton of money potential unless you already had shares...Let a slow and jerky ride north for awhile..
Im leaning towards the gap, They cant think they can hold the tide of buying interest on open on Tuesday. At least I wouldn think so.
Price targets to consider based on assumptions..,
.32 cents(long time low)..
.50 cents (Some analysts price targets)
1(Psychological barrier...Shorts will usually attack this line as stocks fight to become out of delisting..But since its not as big a deal these days, Im not sure if its relevant other than it sat there for a bit..
The big target is the 1.34 Mel buy in price and the 1.50 convertible bond price before this whole mess began..
If MM's were fair, and the market, etc...And buying interest is logical, I would assume these levels would once again become somewhat relevant..
$2 would be a pipe dream in my opinion...Maybe after all 09 debt is clear and they report FCF...
I would think selling half at .50-.75 cents wasnt the dumbest trade Ive ever seen...
The more conservative price target might be .35 cent area...Were it sat for a bit and where the R/S and dilution news took it too..Then the bk scare started leaning it down to .10....
I want to personally thank each and everyone of you for your service to our country. I have never served. I/we thank you for watching our backs!!!!
IMHO I think Mel has got Charlie by the balls now. Charlie will undoubtedly make some quick cash...but Mel got what he wanted, And Charlie actually helped him get there. I was thinking that if Mel paid off the Feb converts, Charlie would just buy up more of the Dec debt. Thats where Mel outsmarted him. Mel will pay off the Feb debt. Then, extend bank facilities, and finally deal with Charlie. Charlie will get paid in cash for his Dec convertibles and make about 125M, or Mel will try and work the same as the other convertibles and exchange them for senior secured where Charlie makes 10-14% on his money before the mature, or Mel can offer Charlie shares for debt. However, the price will be significantly higher, causing less dilution.
Everybody wins except the long existing shareholders who bought over $2-3. It may take them a long time to be made whole again.
Sirius XM is not filing for bankruptcy. Liberty is offering up a bridge loan and this will either be announced this weekend or next week.
Neither the shorts are longs have anything to worry about at the moment. I suspect the stock to be trading on the .06-.18 range for the remainder of 2009.
For those of you that bought a .05, you have brass balls. Nice job!
On Feb 13 09:40 PM Midas360 wrote:
> This website is a joke sometimes. Stick to copying and pasting the
> news and put your 8 ball in the closet.
>
> Sirius XM is not filing for bankruptcy. Liberty is offering up a
> bridge loan and this will either be announced this weekend or next
> week.
>
> Neither the shorts are longs have anything to worry about at the
> moment. I suspect the stock to be trading on the .06-.18 range for
> the remainder of 2009.
>
> For those of you that bought a .05, you have brass balls. Nice job!
On Feb 13 09:47 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Thanks for stopping by.......
Thanks again.
On Feb 13 08:45 PM kingreecan wrote:
> How does one purchase after hours? I've never purchase AH before
> so I'd like to know if there are limitations to pur shares when markets
> closed... any further info on AH trading is appreciated.
> Sirius SH: since 2006
Your comments are comical.
It was trading at .18 cents when BK was a real threat not 1 month ago..
And in gods green earth it ever touches .06 cents again is beyond me..Sounds like your new to the party...Watch and learn...
You dont have a clue what this stocks range is obviously..
At any rate, it has to be better than BK... I'm looking forward to hearing the rest of the details... good luck to everyone on Tuesday, things are looking better than they have in a looooooong time.
My new buy in with over double the shares however is .12 cents now.
Im even..So every penny from here takes out over 2 cents of losses on my first play...Now I sold higher up, so I actually need less than that even...
I began selling of those shares at around .85 cents on down...
As Tyler writes, anything can still happen, were still not out of the woods yet, but its looking 100 percent better than 2 days ago..We went to the floor with this stock , and held..Hardest thing to do in investing is fight off your own emotions..
If you knew that 300 million dollars can keep a competitor from gaining market share, you do it, especially when you feel you will get the money back and with interest...
Actually sounds like a no brainer to me...I cant find one thing wrong with it...
I will be watching you so that I might pick up some of your insightful strategies that help me make some money. So please, to your lead I await the next move on this company......
I just want to echo BTR's comments. As you said a few days ago Relmor you have to ignore the bashers and get mad and stand up for what you beleive in. Thanks to you and Cos1000 and sl162 for all your great posting and insight.
You guys rock!
On Feb 13 10:04 PM BTR wrote:
> I just wanted to jump in and say , I am new at trading stocks and
> got interested in this stock a few weeks ago . Because of many of
> your willingness to share your thoughts and knowledge , I have picked
> up on 40k shares at .115 avg. I had already decided to stick it out
> with you guys even into BK if that was going to be the case , but
> many of you kept up the hope and knew from experience how this might
> play out . I just wanted to say "thanks" from a rookie on keeping
> everyone posted on how this might play out . I might be a rookie
> at trading but am smart enough to know when to listen to people with
> obvious knowledge and good sense and when to ignore the bashers who
> just want to put it down.
> Thanks again.
You said it, "Hardest thing to do in investing is fight off your own emotions". For so many months everyone was pushing for us to sell. You stuck to your guns and it has paid off handsomely for you getting down almost into the high single digits for your price per share.
I have taken your insight and advice from these past few days and you are right on the money (no pun intended).
See you on Tueday!
Liberty Media Offering Sirius XM Bridge Loan - Report
Friday 02/13/2009 7:38 PM ET - Dow Jones News
On Feb 13 10:30 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> Hey Cos1000, I just dont like us little guys being bullied by the
> media. They told us how stupid we were for 6 months straight now,
> and preserving capital, and being patient may have paid off. The
> opportunity to buy this low has saved many buy in averages, including
> my own..Which was finally able to see sub $1...My original buy in
> average was 2.30...
> My new buy in with over double the shares however is .12 cents now.
>
> Im even..So every penny from here takes out over 2 cents of losses
> on my first play...Now I sold higher up, so I actually need less
> than that even...
> I began selling of those shares at around .85 cents on down...
>
> As Tyler writes, anything can still happen, were still not out of
> the woods yet, but its looking 100 percent better than 2 days ago..We
> went to the floor with this stock , and held..Hardest thing to do
> in investing is fight off your own emotions..
Now Charlie . . . you were not very nice to our CEO Mel Karmazin in making his personal home phone number public. Imagine all of the aggravation and grief that your disrespectful act caused Mel and his family.
How would YOU like it if someone did that to YOU . . . or if someone were to stage a parade in front of your personal residence because the address was published on the internet. I bet YOU wouldn't like it very much.
Here's my advice Charlie . . . take your convertible bonds, go home and live to fight another day. This one ain't worth the personal aggravation.
Surely you don't need the same level of aggravation you exposed Mel to 4 years ago when you publicly displayed his home phone # to your TV subscribers, right?
I mean come'on, whats a $175 mil between friends? A simple public apology to Mel would also be helpful in healing these old wounds . . .
Another night with no sleep waiting for news.
I feel just like I do at the poker table, and I'm all-in on this one.
Good luck to us all!
If this goes bad I'll see ya at the food bank.
I think it will either gap up, or climb steady with few or no real long term pullbacks...
Even after the gap up it might still climb all day..
Depends on the news now.
If we hear nothing all day, then It might stay under .20 cents, but I doubt it..
Seems we have more than SIRIUS in common. I too am a veteran...out since end of Gulf one after 10 years of service. Last stupid decision I made thankfully. I don't know what it is about this stock....but I have been in and out and drawn back in over the course of both companies history. When I started doing research after the merger I came upon this site...and lo and behold...I knew I had found the right place. You fellas are truly good hearted. There are so many who don't understand the dirty little secrets that occur with regard to Wall Street..and get suckered regularly. Having been a broker before, I have some first hand knowledge of the garbage that goes on( how MM manipulate price etc.) so I am thankful there is a place like this that exists for the less knowledgeable or first timers. Not that they should be making decisions based on what transpires here...but they get the jist of what they need to do and where to look for info if they want to invest in a company. This isn't a game for the weak at heart...especially when the shorting crew comes here looking to scare up some fear...perhaps that is why we take it so personally, and dig so thoroughly in pursuit of common sense and fundamentals.
Are they aware about the latest news?
Say him soo pointing at Ergen and ask him to bring his cap back and give it to Mel..
www.tradethenews.com/s...
It was be irresponsible of me to give credance to this story when I suspected others might be false...
So the angle on this might be a good thing anyway...It will drive up the price for ECHOSTAR and give Mel a better deal in those discussions.
So either way its either great news or really good news.
Dec. notes and new debt might mean the legal end of the BK possibility...
Any Bk lawyers or judges or anyone who might know if you can aquire signigicant debt so close to Bk...Sirius could get a better deal in BK court than they could negotiate out of it anyway..Bondholders get nervous in bk court, will settle for lesser deals..Outside, they have more leverage, and THEY think they got a good deal on the bonds...They might have even DEMANDED some shares rather than all cash, or Mel was EASILY able to convince them to take shares. Wouldnt it be secruities fraud to sell shares 1 business day prior to filing bk..
As you see more and more facts come out you see how BK is LESS AND LESS likely.
Hey Jim, just saw some more drive-by reporting over at your website . . you need to tighten-up the editorial control over there and stop the drive-by reporting.
You see Jim, there's a certain pumpkin farm in Hunterdon County, NJ that is getting a pretty nice tax break for a bogus farming operation.
See Jim, it works like this. . . when someone gets a property tax subsidy for a bogus Gentlemen's farm, your neighbors have to reach into their pockets to make up that difference ... Christie Whitman tried it Jim, but then she got caught. Ya see? And I didn't even need to work a hedge fund to figure out that math, right?
So, we're pretty much done here. I think you get the message. I don't expect this will have to go any further.
BOOYAH Jim.
Mel, this is another of my many gifts to you. As long as the mainstream media continues to misreport this story I will be sending you little gifts like this everyday . . . drip, drip, drip.
Perhaps some of the other media outlets will become more judicious in their reporting . . . we will see. Perhaps they will soon understand how their erroneous and misleading reports effect the personal lives of shareholders . . .
Brandon's S&P thread is much shorter...but weird, it has no link in the SIRI masters. I clicked on it yesterday only through MAYBEMayBeNot's link of it above. These threads are getting long. I think we set a record yesterday on Julia's. Over 200 posts.
Anyway, I saw this from MarketWatch this AM (released last night)...
>>There are perfectly logical reasons for Dish Network and DirecTV to be interested in acquiring Sirius XM, according to experts.
"Under both their mission statements, Sirius XM would fit quite easily," said Jimmy Schaeffler, chairman and senior analyst at the Carmel Group, a telecommunications research firm in Carmel, Calif. "They're both looking for a bundle to tie up with their satellite-TV services, something unique that they could use to compete with the telephone companies and the cable operators."
While technical limitations prohibit satellite providers from directly providing telephone service or a state-of-the art broadband offering, Dish or DirecTV could offer a package that includes satellite radio.
Also valuable to the satellite-TV players is the radio spectrum Sirius XM owns, which could be used for a variety of purposes, including wireless transmissions.<<
So, we've mainly been thinking the additive into SIRI not the otherway around. Makes perfect sense. And what I and others have been saying on the last part of the rip is key. This is the main reason Malone cannot afford to even let Ergen have a key to SIRI let alone have him get control of the whole company. Too many x factors and unknowns that could give Charlie an edge. So instead, Malone is not only giving his pal Mel and SIRI the helping hand it needs, he's also buying off any future threats from his enemy.
I see we still have nothing hitting the wires about the bridge deal between Mel and Malone. DowJones picked up the Post's web article. But my take is SIRI will wait until Monday or Tues to release. Maybe paperwork being signed this weekend and also maybe Mel hopes to finanlize bank extensions over the weekend. Come out withthe whole package at once. Also no doubt will announce earnings release...maybe even pre numbers. Which is another point. You know Mel had to show Malone a good Q to get this money (which we already know are good numbers per 12/18 guidance). But this deal greenlight confirms those good numbers. Malone needed at least that much in order to pull the trigger for Mel.
Also...notice BK stories have drastically subsided? MSM is controlled by NAB. They made sure every paper picked up the BK angle.
Not so fast.
JC's days are numbered. He's a little past his 15minutes but people are on to his dart board approach to picking stocks...The guy is worse than the weather. JC never met a stock he didn't like, then dislike, then like, then dislike, then like, then dislike, then like, then....
I can only imagine how many poor novice investors are still waiting to get back to their cost basis on his advice!
Also condenses nicely the story of whats going on with other related Sirius news..Picking up news about new stock owners..etc...
More fuel for the fire..Enjoy..
www.ceoreportcards.com/
Your posts are always appreciated and good luck with them shares...things be lookin' up.
There you get the best and most outrageous angles on what the bashers have as ammo.
They are still on the BK thing..
Bashers are drying up over there..
Down to a core of about 4 of them now..
And get this...
One just posted a bogus article written by the washington post..Citing authors name and everything. He just committed secruities fraud, and he doesnt even know it. Around 100 people just reported him to the post and the SEC..
I am happy to report the bashers have NOTHING to even comment on today. They are even giving in on the bridge loan saying its just a temporary fix, and they will file in may now!!!
HAHHAHAHAHAHHAH
I love it.
This is looking good so far..
Almost 16 hours since the news broke, and no retractions or other headlines denying this news. 2 days to go...
See now this is what we need on all MF's a few days out, not just the Q's
The Cliffs Notes:
>>Cypress Funds Llc Increase SIRIUSXM holdings by 150%
13 February 2009
On February 12th, Cypress Funds Llc reported that they had acquired another 11,000,000 shares of of SIRIUSXM (SIRI) increasing the firm’s current holding to 18,305,000 shares representing a 150.58% increase from its previous holding.
Barclays Plc Increases SIRIUSXM holdings by 514%
13 February 2009
On February 12th, Barclays Plc reported that they had acquired another 6,063,189 shares of of SIRIUSXM (SIRI) increasing the firm’s current holding to 7,242,747 shares representing a 514.02% increase from its previous holding.
Citigroup Increases SIRIUSXM holdings by 207%
13 February 2009
On February 11th, the Citigroup reported that they had acquired another 3,531,004 shares of of SIRIUSXM (SIRI) increasing the firm’s current holding to 5,228,657 shares representing a 207.99% increase from its previous holding. <<
Hmmmm. Feb 12th. Isn't that when MSM blew out the BK stories in droves? But these guys aren't stupid and picked up mad shares @ .05. And Barclays!!! Ha ha ha...remember that article on how that idiot analyst "was throwing his hands up in the air" and dropping SIRI because they were "no longer trading on fundamentals????". Huh but his own company is a bottom feeder!!!! Love it!
You guys are great! Some of these posts....like roadkills...had me shooting my coffee across the room. If nothing else...this situation has gotten my wife.....who is not a big SATRAD fan to take some interest in what I do with our portfolio and why I am here all the time reading and sometimes posting.
Lots of eyes help too...so much info to sort through with so littler time to sort through it lots of times.
btw.....the avatar is the photo of Malone holding a life preserver with Mels mugshot off to the side which was featured in the Post article. I couldn't resist!
No surprise shifting BK hype now to May. We said they would do that. My hope is that Mel is negot. extensions as we speak now that he got the bridge anda announced both. Then Mal and Libery work on remaining Dec in coming months. I don't expect retractions on the bridge (at least from Malone's POV). Malone's got to do it. And as I posted up there, it's a great move for Direct to offer SatRad content as well...leaves Charlie in the cold..again. Granted, it's been offered, we still need Mel and BOD's to accept it at terms.
I appreciate everyones input, and I know where not there yet, but Its looking better. I hope it stays that way. Still cautious, and dont get greedy here.
Yahoo's still refuses to pick up anything on this story so far...
Nothing...
ETRADE as well...
Both Wall Street tools..
once the bridge-loan arrangement is announced and formalized, which will definitely include an announcement that the May bank debt has also been restructured, the news cycle will shift to a new headline on the order of "Malone Rescues Siri, Investors Face Massive Dilution"
I guarantee the above. Copy & paste this post somewhere.
They will totally ignore that the dilution has been baked-into the share price since NOVEMBER. They will totally ignore the positive Q4 earnings . . . they will continue to write scare pieces.
Please keep posting the links to these scare-pieces here.
One-by-one we will dismantle the drive-by media and it WILL be personal, the same way Charlie made it personal with Mel . . the guilty must suffer!
On Feb 14 12:09 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> YOu guys are missing out on yahoo message board.
> There you get the best and most outrageous angles on what the bashers
> have as ammo.
> They are still on the BK thing..
> Bashers are drying up over there..
> Down to a core of about 4 of them now..
> And get this...
> One just posted a bogus article written by the washington post..Citing
> authors name and everything. He just committed secruities fraud,
> and he doesnt even know it. Around 100 people just reported him to
> the post and the SEC..
> I am happy to report the bashers have NOTHING to even comment on
> today. They are even giving in on the bridge loan saying its just
> a temporary fix, and they will file in may now!!!
> HAHHAHAHAHAHHAH
> I love it.
> This is looking good so far..
> Almost 16 hours since the news broke, and no retractions or other
> headlines denying this news. 2 days to go...
Bulls
3679
[3679 outperforms, 899 underperforms]
Bears
899
11 bulls and 1 bear from the 12 tops
I guess what this means is that more than 90% of wall streets tops think were on our way UP!!
I am feeling good about my position in SIRI. In the mean time, I have to get back to work doing battle on another penny stock. Unlike SIRI, though, this one is even a tougher nut to crack.
I look forward to checking back as the coming week approaches.
Carry on.
I say we set a target goal of a certain number of total shares held by convention goers. 3.51b outstanding currently. Once we hit our goal we have our first convention. Then we go from there...
Our own little SIRI investor club. With a bite.
asm - Connorport's comment almost caused a coffee geyser for me too.
On Feb 14 11:56 AM connorport wrote:
> Guys, does anyone have anymore gutwrenching stocks i can play. This
> has been a h?ll of a ride. Too many have laughed while i was repositioning
> from $2.85 with 10000 shares to .40 and 100000 shares. had to do
> it! its become an addiction. ive been up way late too many nights
> reading and trying to understand every angle here and bloggers like
> cos, relmor, siriusroadkill, mogami and yes! even pig farmer had
> his place in this 2nd season reality show we call the SIRI COMMONS!!!
> remember over this last season and give thanks that Season Three
> is right around the corner and it looks like it will be a little
> brighter. This will be the season the COMMONS climb out and say What
> was that? I shouldn't do what? RRRIIIIIIIIGHT!!!
killerkaul 774 Comments
163888- What are your thoughts on an interest in say an aapl, goog, or other interested party buying Siri after the merge?
May 03 11:23 AM |Report abuse| Link | Reply
163888 1137 Comments
Killerkaul, If that were even a remote possibility, I believe that it would be better to merge with something like DISH or Directv. The Synergies would be almost a good as the ones between SIRI/XMSR. It is alot less expensive to add capabilities to satellites then to launch a totally seperate one. Capabilities that may already be there. Think about this XMSR said that its two newer satellites can support SIRI spectrum. The work on those satellites was done well before any serious talk of merger between them. On top of that ( I am not even going into the savings on content that there would be), what has Mel always worked with, media. He most likely will stick with what he knows. Plus XMSR already deals with Directv and SIRI already deals with DISH, on content distribution. Now while I do not believe another merger with anyting else would happen. I also do not pretend to be even close to as intelligent as Mel on media/mergers, and I think it is safe to say vary few know what he is thinking when it comes to other mergers. So unless you are close to Mel it is all wide wide wide speculation.
May 03 04:16 PM |Report abuse
Chalk another one up for common sense.
Remember what I was saying in the private message at Sirius Buzz. Just like, the used car market being a new big generater of free revenue (killerkaul remembers that one from the Barrons blog). This is nothing more then common sense, logic, research, and not going to far off the reservation.
On or about August 1, 2008, a group set asail...no less out of Boston Harbor, on a majestic Cutty Sark... loaded with food, fresh water, ammo, and cast of characters...and of course, a cool blue dog! Their seek? That which all men seek. Wealth and riches, knowledge and experience, and the thrills that accompany being alive. As this group pulled away with a hopeful victorious shout from the safety of their known land (their terra firma)...they knew not exactly what was in store for them...only that there were vast open waters...and probably great challenges ahead. Soon they found themselves in a flat, desolate watery wasteland...surrounded by nothing but itself. It was replete with intensely high seas and storms, battling rogue pirates, and giant snakes and serpents. Sails were torn, bows were broken, yet the Cutty remained afloat and seaworthy. The band of men found themselves at times confused from the searing sun, dehydration, and starvation. Supplies ran low. But they regrouped, never giving up. Fighting on...battle after battle. Determined to reach that new destination that can only be attained by way of a courageous journey, proof of fortitude, and mastery of adversity. Finally, through a sudden yell from the crows nest of "Land Ho!", the cast of characters see what appears to be land. The place where they can get fresh water, a hot meal, new supplies, some drink and song (AND A BATH!). That which can re-invigorate their spirit and desire to sail on...to take new but less circuitous and trecherous journeys...fighting again new battles, new foes...but with new wisdom, new and better tools, new strategies...That in turn bring new and more plentiful riches, of both the monetary and insightful kind.
So the saga continues...
I don't think there is a person here who isn't prepared for the next round of BS to come. I know for sure that I am, and if I am, I know for damn sure that cos1000, relmor,sl162, sirius roadkill, and163888 are along with many of you others. I only wish Mel knew how much faith there is in his abilities! It's the one thing I have clung to from the beginning of his involvement with Sirius....that if anyone could do it, he could.The man is a master! Charlie Ergen has nothing on Mel Karmazin....this is the real world...not the world poker tour. Mel is the Chessmaster to Charlie and his poker playing ways. He got schooled on this one.
On Feb 13 10:04 PM FoolNHisMoney wrote:
> kingreecan, many online platforms allow AH trading. Just look at
> what they offer. I'm on TDAmeritrade, and it offers AH trading.
>
I think I am still not going to celebrate until I can sell enough of my position to cover my overall buy-in and then let the 3000 $.06 shares grow into the future (thank you for giving me the confidence to put more money in near the bottom, that scared the heck out of me).
I am a novice investor, as you can probably tell but what an experience I've had over the last year and a half with this stock. I'm no longer naive about the control that large investors have with stock prices and the concessions that have to be made when taking on debt. I have also become somewhat of a dictionary of investing terms at work with the knowledge that I've gained reading all of your comments lol!
I really hope the Liberty "bailout" happens as reported, we see a positive Q4 report with and they take care of May and Dec debt. But, most of all, I hope there are some shorts that get Siriusly burned by the news. IMHO, shorting stocks should have been stopped completely when the banks started failing.
Anyway, thanks for all the info, and good luck to all Longs.
Good call back then. And while we've all been thinking the way of SatTV coming through SIRI, it probably turns out it's the other way around. Which turns into a great value add for the player who secures the Dog--which now will be Direct. Both Ergen and Direct have been considering the notion for a while (my Business Week article from 2003 proves that in Ergen) but SIRI's current predicament, and now Ergen actually making his hostile move, has accelerated the timetable for addressing the synergy issue. Unfortunately for Ergen, Malone's Liberty has since taken a controlling interest in Direct. And on top of now looking out for Direct, Malone hates Ergen. So through Malone helping Mel, he locks up dibs on the SIRI spectrum for future offerings through the Direct Network (or whatever may become possible through SIRI) and Ergen gets the gate. He blew it. Malone loves it. And so do we...
i am a musician by trade and now instead of composing a requium(death mass) for the big dog, i think come tuesday i will instead open up a bottle of some good merlot and play a few bars of the HALELULIA-BOOYAA chorus...
Later
I for one was definitely thinking along those lines since SIRI was already doing some channel broadcasting with some kid shows. But now as you put it its a reverse of our previous thought process. I wonder....could Malone even be thinking of broadcasting QVC (audio only)through SIRI. Call us at 555-555-5555...our operators are standing by especially for you SIRIUS listeners looking to purchase(name of Product) in time for the holidays and stuck in traffic. If women will drive and put their makeup on at the same time...they will shop while driving if you give them the opportunity. Just a thought...possibly crazy....but a thought none the less..
On Feb 14 03:14 PM asm61064 wrote:
> sl162,
>
> I for one was definitely thinking along those lines since SIRI was
> already doing some channel broadcasting with some kid shows. But
> now as you put it its a reverse of our previous thought process.
> I wonder....could Malone even be thinking of broadcasting QVC (audio
> only)through SIRI. Call us at 555-555-5555...our operators are standing
> by especially for you SIRIUS listeners looking to purchase(name of
> Product) in time for the holidays and stuck in traffic. If women
> will drive and put their makeup on at the same time...they will shop
> while driving if you give them the opportunity. Just a thought...possibly
> crazy....but a thought none the less..
Good afternoon. Hope you are enjoying the weekend....big week ahead.
Would still like to see the pairing of MSFT and SIRI with a ZUNE player that can broadcast SIRI. Makes good sense for both parties.
Is this a case of "no news is good news" I think not. Also Sirius has not posted the SEC form 8k for the Dec 09 debt deal that they say must be consumated.
do not want to be a worry wart but I am not putting on my party hat before I see the news.
On Feb 14 03:35 PM 163888 wrote:
> sl62, here is another little tid bit people must have missed. Mel
> has said that without the CAPEX cost (with is the cost of that satellite)
> they would have been FCF positive for the 2009 year. Now if you take
> no cash burn which if you have FCF positive you will have no cash
> burn (money that comes off your COH) that 360 million that they had
> in 3rd quarter of 2008 and more (FCF from the 4th quarter). That
> means that the COH while maybe needed at various times in the year
> would be about even again at the end of the year 2009.
I think "audio-wise", there are many possibilities that Direct and SIRI can share. Win-win for both. But here's the key. As written about, Malone does not WANT SIRI...the way Ergen does. Ergen's a fool, which is why he will never overtake Direct. Malone sees the benefits of creating synergies as strategic partners not as a new parent.
...... to all the Bashers, you didn't even make it a good fight.......
163888,
common sense goes along way during these times, when all you can hear confuses you and you know the facts, not changing direction is the action to take. Thanks for your common sense.
killer too!
thanks again
gary the banker
On Feb 14 04:04 PM 163888 wrote:
> mogami_99, I dont know what more you are waiting for. Yes I know
> that they kept repeating the news of bankruptcy but dont think that
> is going to happen with good news. They have said that 175 million
> of Dec is taken out, they have said that they are going to get a
> brige loan of several hundred million to at least take out the remaining
> Feb. debt. the only real thing is the May credit facilities those
> will ether get extented or paid off. look at the 2 banks that hold
> the credit facilities JP morgan who has been working with SIRIXM
> and UBS who has been working with Directv and SIRIXM both are invested
> in SIRIXM besides the credit facilities. I think it is a matter of
> who will give the best terms at this point. As said before when the
> 175 million Dec. converts where reconverted I think at this point
> it is a done deal.
You always bring good common sense to the table...I agree and see Mel about to have some room to start focusing more on new income streams and less on the survival of the company. COH is king as is FCF. That's his focus, which he has stated many times in recent months. Malone is creating a bridge to the future for SIRI because he's not a bank. He sees what Mel is trying to do and he is more than happy to be part of it. F'ing Ergen: Priceless. This is what we needed. Someone (benevolent) with deep pockets who understands the business model. Malone may have been the only one who fits that description on this planet. But sometimes that's all you need is one.
run blue dog run and bite egren on the a**
run blue dog run and bite egren on the a**
run blue dog run and bite egren on the a**
On Feb 14 05:38 PM chicagogary wrote:
> i currently have comcast. if i ever want a sat dish....it will be
> malones co never egrens(bastard)
>
> run blue dog run and bite egren on the a**
You my friend are not only the KOTD...you are one of the true beating hearts of this juggernaut. With all these military guys around...A. I better watch my step (lol!)....but B. it would be appropos to invoke the timeless USMC creed of Semper Fi. This would describe you and many others here who have stuck together in the trenches. Thanks Killer and thanks to all.
Now there is no news at all. Must be good?
On Feb 14 05:53 PM sl62 wrote:
> Killer K....("thee" Killer, one and only)...
>
> You my friend are not only the KOTD...you are one of the true beating
> hearts of this juggernaut. With all these military guys around...A.
> I better watch my step (lol!)....but B. it would be appropos to invoke
> the timeless USMC creed of Semper Fi. This would describe you and
> many others here who have stuck together in the trenches. Thanks
> Killer and thanks to all.
killerkaul, as you know I am a common sense kind of guy. and while I can see the PPS being low it should have never been this low. I am not the type of person that believes in conspiracy and manipulation of a stock to this extent. With all that has happen with the PPS and false news articles that come out. I am starting to believe there are certian people (the NAB comes to mind) that really wanted this company to fail. You know what kept me in and optomistic about this company. It was that every bone in my body was saying the PPS should not be this low. I have never been so confused about the PPS about any other stock I have owned. I generally could see exactly why the PPS was were it was. The PPS being this low gos against all common sense and logic. Now I know people will say that they had a lot of debt, how many other start ups dont. Then you have to ask yourselves is the debt really that much compared to the revenue being generated. Are they losing money, yes but what start up doesn't for years, you have to ask yourself are they not losing alot less every year aren't the metrics improving each year (hell each quarter in this case). Hell one only has to compare DISH to this case and they will see the same problems and I will say, these same problems went on alot longer for them. I know people will say but DISH had some big time backing behind it. Then again when we are talking about 3 or 4 hundred million is that alot for someone like Mel, I some how dont think so. So like I said until I see something that comes out that will show me that the PPS deserves being this low none of this will make sense to me and until it starts to make sense I am in.
As I recall you haven't been a fool at all in your strategy for playing this stock's ups and downs. Nice move on your buy and lets hope that we get a very detailed press release from the company by Tuesday, am...... good luck
Long SIRI, Long ECL
Thanks for keeping the big blue dog fed and watered! Pretty soon it will be time to hire him out for STUD services! The ladies will never no what hit'em. But before he get's to play, there is alittle unfinished business with Ergen. First, Big Blue is going to knock him on his ass..then, I hope he tears him limb from limb, bites him is d... off, and finally pisses on what is left. Ergen deserves everything he's going to get...trying to screw the fans of the big blue dog.
On Tuesday early AM(pre-market open) we(the long holders of SiriusXM) will be waiting anxiously to hear you say
SIC'UM RUN BLUE DOG RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
Ya'll's collective knowledge, logical thinking, and rational posts helped keep many of us in the game. I for one would have caved and taken a significant loss. But after continuing to look at the logic and sense behind your posts, I made the decision to stay in the game. I know that it is officially not over yet, but I feel that it is just a formality now. I believe that Ergen tipped his hand to Mel when he brought Clayton onto the board. I believe that Mel the savvy businessman that he is knew what was going to happen, just did not know exactly how and when. Things might have been different if Charlie and Clayton had played it a different way.
Again, as I, killer, and others have said before...We thank you and probably owe you for your professional/psycholog... services. Please send the bill to Charlie Ergen C/O Echostar!!
My thoughts are still longterm but I was just wondering of the other longs , are any of you going to take any off the table? what percent is still long of your portfolio and at what price are you going to take some off. My original idea was to sell at .23 if it got there on rumor before the confirmed news and have half my position holding with no money invested. But now it is either real news or a bust on Tue. So I am now thinking of holding on till .50 or even 70 to take my invested money out and hang on to the free shares. Still temped to let it all ride for 2 years min though.
Thanks to Cos and remar for your great posts. Your analysis helped me back up my analysis and gave me a few ideas I hadnt thought of.
We arent out of the weeds yet but i have faith that we will make it. I think Still a 20% chance that things fall through and for unknown reasons Mel doesnt make the then hard choice of sticking with the shareholders.
This is my first post because back when I started reading this longs were getting bashed. Vic of Value(Dave) or some sort of idiot name. Anyway he may be shown to be incorrect in the end(Remember him saying that BK was inevitable then! We shall see if he shows up and admits his mistake if all goes well, I have no dought he will be back if it doesnt go well.
Sleep well we will all need it for Tues.
Since all the words have been said in your appreciation and nothing much has been left for me to say except GOD BLESS YOU.
Give us a long weekend to think about how quickly were going to sell.
Seems strange to post article after article and then real news comes out, and nothing. Anyone here still think the medias coverage of this stock is unbiased and ethical? I have some land on the moon Id like to sell you if you do.....
I'm hoping we see $1.00 in the next year.
Go Cubs
Yo
I am truly amazed at the falsehoods and untruths thrust at this particular stock. If it were not for some here who took up the fight long before me...with honesty and sincere integrity....many would be out alot of money right now...with no chance of getting it back at all.The nerves of steel, and the savy expressed by cos 1000, 163888,relmor,and several others are heroic in my opinion. They have been the gatekeepers of truth and honesty, all the while taking up the challenge from all the dark souls who would attempt to use scare tactics on the average investor here. by typically spouting all out falsehoods and quoting biased articles in the media that the average person swallows as gospel. I....like killer, would gladly man the trenches with the lot of you, battling shoulder to shoulder against the Dark side. Finally....this story has a fever.....and the only thing that can cure it is more cowbell! Have a great night folks....rest up for the next couple of days...as posted earlier....the battle lines will be shifting after the news...we will all need to be observant and proactive.....hold the lines....don't give in .....and deal from a position of comfort and strength....let those with evil in their hearts and minds see the strength of our conviction....and be weakened by our resolve!
As I have said time and again....thanks for keeping the faith and pointing out the biased media and whirling lies that have been blowing constantly and especially of late.
A lot of us wouldn't have made it without you. I echo the sentiment of many by saying that I have also learned a lot from all of you (and even a little from those trash taking bashers who just don't get it).
Thanks! Peace! Here's to another chapter on Tuesday
Lets see where we are going to be at on Tuesday and also, after the release of the 4quarter and when the iphone app comes out..
Then we will crack a bottle..!
airman, While I cant speak for others I can tell you why I was pissed at Cramer The fact is he first lowered his target if merger happens from 6 to 5 and made it seem like it was always 5. Then barely a month latter after nothing form him he comes out with (after the merger was approved) that it is a lottery ticket. Mind you he took it from a 5 dollar target to a lottery ticket in a month with no other downgrades. that is what pissed me off and I think many others. Now if he would have said something earlyer about it being worth 4 then 3 and so on, people would not have been so mad at him. Now thats just my opinion but I think it is shared by many.
No doubt you are correct. As i noted, I do blame him for going ravenous on this stock overnight. he should have explained why he liked the stock but how it was going to be torturous for those that held it. He was right about where it went. The Lottery pick comment was over the top too.
With that said,My point was that many say pick against what he says on his show. I disagree, He brings up many very interesting plays about stocks I would not have even considered. But then it is Time to do your own homework. That is well relmar,cos,you and a few others have helped me. I now know where and what to look at to get a good feel of the companies health and dealings. Still have much about trading and following trades to learn like the level 2 stuff.
By the way that is where Cramer fails. As a matter of fact that is where almost all talking heads fail. They really dont point you to what to look at. Sure they tell you to listen to the Conference call .. but that is about it!. I just use the heads to get ideas to look at for myself.
The biggest thing I learned following this stock is that you have to be careful believing anything that comes out. Especially articles. You never know if the person has any bias or just plain knows nothing about the stock or the market in general. in Politics you know they are biased and full of BS but for some reason I believed a little more when it came to their business divisions. NO MORE!
And dont trade more than you can lose in spec stocks. Many here that you see come and go do ... they have to much emotional attachment to the money side... Dream of riches then realize they may not be able to eat. Unfortunately I think those kinds let a lot of the shorts out the last week or so. Hope I am wrong there.
The comment on Jim Cramer is very accurate. I remember 2.70 was a buy, buy, buy just days before the merger. Then it was a lottery ticket and he was hailing Weinke with GS as the only one that got it right (When Mel came on the show). This reversal was astonishing to me at the time. I was in at 3.25 when this was going on. I took the chance and bought down until it got silly. Average is now under .8 with a boatload of shares. The last lot of shares was at .122. Of course this was against Cramers suggestions of sell, sell, sell since the merger. Now Cramer is saying this will never be more than a .2 cent stock. One day someone is gonna shut him up and it is not going to be pretty. No wonder he got "death threats" on his change of opinion. I really lost any respect that I had for him during this time and do not even watch CNBC any longer. Although I have been through this drama since the SP fall, I have had many moments when I considered this a huge mistake. Needless to say, I am quite a bit more confident going forward. All the positives are still in place that have been outlined here for months. The financing has been the biggest hurdle and now it seems this is a non issue (they now have the necessary time needed to make this work). The news will be a string of positives from here(4Q results, restructuring debt, new marketing, hardware, alliances) and patience has prevailed for those that have stayed with the company. With all this said, Jim Cramers actions were appalling on this stock and continue to be so. He really gave no warning of the 95% drop which was coming; and he had to have known something since he is so in with GS.
Long SiriusXM
You guys totally missed my point . I will shut up from now and go back to lurking
There is no reason for you not to post. All,opinions are welcome. and I am sure everyone here agrees with that. What is not wanted here...are lies and bogus information. Of course we all will not agree on everything....but we all can use the perspectives of our fellow posters to validate the information we discover and hear.
The facts need to be considered when discussing Sirius Xm and Cramer's change of heart. Forget everything else about him and discuss the facts and you will see that his Ravenous Change of Heart was base on new information provided the day after the Merger was consummated. He specifically addressed the surprise that we all experienced and did not know before the merger. The ugly deal for $550M and the 263M Lent shares that went with it, with a resetting of the stock price at $1.50. This was the puzzle piece that no one new before the merge. It was this piece of info that was a cause and effect of the SP decimation IMHO. Love Cramer or Hate him, he was right about the effect of this deal.
All opinions are NOT welcome here. if you make the point that all is not bad about cramer and that you can get some good ideas from him. Even with the disclaimer that you should do your own research and not just listen to buy,buy,buy or sell,sell,sell. Then there will be a slew of "unsubstantiated" comments about crammers character come flying are those the lies you are talking about?
mlongj, Cramer did say that it was going to go to nothing(when it was still above $2), albiet after alot of cheerleading for the merger. maybe he did "know" something, maybe not. I did not believe him! I wish I would have listened ... I could have 500k shares for the same money that I have 47k shares.
He also said that after it went to nothing was the time to buy, I for one would like to continue to see you post.
INJC...
AH closed @ .129. So your post is already outdated. I assume you meant .13 since you forgot the decimal point. But .129 = .13. And yes, for a company like SIRI that STILL IS ridiculously cheap. INJC, I'm fine with you generally because even though you never believed in SIRI on the way down, you at least posted cogent reasons why...which I can respect but also which is more than can be said for other disbeievers and bashers. But I have to tell you. You can't change your colors now. Yes, you can buy in at .05 when there is absolutely 0 risk remaining, probably like other bashers will and make some bucks (all the while using comments of pros. here to keep you at least interested in the SP)...but IMHO that is not on the level...at least where I'm concerned. I have no problem with people not believing in anything. If you don't then so be it, and you walk away. But when you just pop back after all the fighters are bloodied and the fort is filled with bullet holes, and you swoop in for a quick hitter of financial gain on our backs....that rings hollow with me. Like I said, I'll probably get over this with you because you are best of basher breed. But right now I have to say it stings a little. And for you to be telling people who are a little excited that maybe they can actually get a drink of water and a hot meal, and stop getting hit with shrapnal for a change, it also rings hollow. No one wants to be taking anything for granted just yet...and I don't think anyone here has. All the indicators are green right now for what we believe is about to happen. And we will wait until the white flag is raised. But please, you're the last person (maybe not last), let's say among the last, who should just be admonishing the aforementioned weary at this stage of the ordeal. JMHO.
Well said and I agree.... caution is a reasonable sentiment coming from those who have held their ground and done the hard work..... many a day has been spent having to ignore or constantly dispute the one liners of the non believers.... to take their advice now is simply unwise.....
anyway i now would like to THANK all the bashers and naysayers, perpetraters of gloom((medea)
and in general all of the negative bastards who have so generously allowed us to buy in at such ridiculously low levels.keep it up boys
as for jim cramer, how can you blame anyone who changes their stance as new information comes through. even the best stocks will not always be a buy,buy,buy. in this game as in life in general, its timing my friends.
Second, Thanks for the left-handed compliment . . . er, sort of! Here's what I took from your post. (I have no idea if this applies to you as an individual, but I think it's the sentiment reflected in your post) The market isn't a religion, and you don't get a better seat in heaven for having been on board early. Any stock that you treat in that way, will kill you every time. I bought sirius to make money. I don't believe at all in the future of sirius as an independent publicly traded company. That being said, there HAS to be place in everyone's portfolio for speculation. Otherwise, buy up Treasury's and sleep well. For me, sirius was a great place to do just that.
I got nailed as an investor, as many other on this board have, because I violated all my own rules of investing, and road the stock all the way down. Then, I did it again when I bought at .0571. We'll see in the coming week if two wrongs do indeed make a right!
All rich investors, and I mean ALL rich investors trade on inside information. Not necessarily the SEC kind, but the kind that says you're going to get burnt because you don't know as much about the stock as me. The people who drove Sirius down to .055, knew much more about the stock than we did. No amount of faith or hope in the product or process can make up for that lack of accurate information.
I bought on a hunch, and I held at Friday's close on a hunch. If anything goes against me tuesday, I fully deserve to lose my money. There are a lot of people on here who don't deserve to lose money because they got caught up in investing by listening to people like JIm Cramer. It's the same impulse that makes millionaires out of tv preachers, caught up in the moment.
Cramer is an entertainer, and if you wouldn't take medical advice from the actors on ER, then you shouldn't take stock advice from Jim Cramer.
I hope that everybody who has non-speculative money invested in sirius gets there money back I really do! If they do, a lot of "non-believers" such as myself will also break even or make money too. My father worked for General Electric for almost 40 years and has owned stock in the company for almost as long. He has NEVER sold a single share. He has lost almost 70% of his money this year. The people who shorted and sold GE owe him nothing. An efficient market has room for everybody.
This is probably unnecessarliy long, but it all comes down to making money. I think it's great if you believe in the company, but if there were a few more accountants and a few less optimists working in sat rad the last 10 years, I don't think that the companies would have made so many bad deals and be in such bad shape. Remember, they needed a merger because they couldn't make money. The government delay didn't help them, but it didn't CAUSE their troubles in the first place either.
Good luck on Tuesday to you and all those who exceed my year and a half of investing in Sirius. I will be happy to stand in line behind everyone who actually has a subscription, or who has been here for the duration. I will close this overly pompous posting with one last thought. True believers NEVER drive the price of any stock high. There just aren't enough of them.
So many rookies, so little time. Get a grip.
On Feb 13 10:23 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> Midas, he was being sarcastic.
> Your comments are comical.
> It was trading at .18 cents when BK was a real threat not 1 month
> ago..
> And in gods green earth it ever touches .06 cents again is beyond
> me..Sounds like your new to the party...Watch and learn...
> You dont have a clue what this stocks range is obviously..