Currency ETF Charts

We haven't checked in on the currency markets lately, so below we highlight price charts for a number of currency ETFs. The only currency that has been in a continuous downtrend over the past 6 months is Mexico's Peso (FXM), and who knows when this downtrend will end. The Australian Dollar (FXA) and Canadian Dollar (FXC) have both been able to remain above their November lows over the past few months, forming a U-shaped bottom.

The British Pound (FXB) was in the same boat as the Peso until it recently broke above its 50-day moving average to give it life again. But it quickly pulled back below its 50-day, so the jury is still out on whether or not a bottom has been made.

After suffering a severe pullback following its multi-month rally, the US Dollar has found its footing again, but it has struggled to test its '08 highs recently and has been trading sideways. This sideways trading is paving the way for a big move once it finally breaks in one direction.

And finally, the Japanese Yen (FXY) has been trading in a long-term uptrend until it recently broke below its 50-day. This sure looks like a sign that the Yen could be in store for a protracted pullback, at least based on technicals.

Comments

[Jake Berzon:]

On top of the price charts it would be interesting to see dividend histories.

I got out of Yen when it just started its sideways action in December. I think Canadian and Australian $ look attractive and not just technically.

Feb 14 03:39 AM

[morph366:]

Jake - I'm not quite sure what you mean by their "dividend histories" - can you explain.

Feb 14 05:54 AM

[Elaine Supkis:]

1. Europe is furious that the euro is rising.
2. The Bank of Japan is using every tool they have to weaken the yen.
3. All currencies of commodity-based nations are going down across the planet.
4. England is in the same boat as the US with one gigantic difference: no one is going through hell to raise the value of the pound. They are, with the dollar, because they want to restart the US with buying imported goods from them. England is in the same boat with Iceland and Ireland and will see significant import goods inflate.

Now, currency traders have a different view from nations. They think 'going up' is good and 'going down' is bad. But this is not true in all cases. Major exporters of MANUFACTURED goods desperately want weaker currencies vis a vis the US dollar. And periodically, the US goes through bouts of trying to depress the dollar for the same reason only this always causes a global financial collapse since the dollar is the world's fiat trade currency basis.

Thank you, emsnews.wordpress.com

Feb 14 08:39 AM

[Witzy:]

If we're going to look at these "entrails" of the various currencies to predict the future, let's also look at Gold vis-a-vis the US Dollar. The recent raly in gold and very strong options interest in XGD suggest a lot of people are betting on a (further) gold rally, which for some is the same as weakness of the Greenback.
Full disclosure, I moved from overweight to market-weight in gold this week.

Feb 14 10:39 AM

[MarvinMBA:]

The next big play is going to be to short the long term Treasury Bonds. This is a bubble that is going to burst soon....MarvinMBA

Feb 14 11:49 AM

[je:]

My technical predictions:

FXA to .55
FXC to .67
FXY to 1.28

Feb 14 01:36 PM

[je:]

I forgot gold

Retrace back to the low $800's one more time. The biggest spending program in our history and it could not top the old high I think bodes ill for gold before its breakout.

Yes I am a gold bug but I think gold is being suppressed so that money is sure to go in bonds.

I also own CDE and HL. If you want to see the largest short positions I have ever saw in your life go to Yahoo finance and look at the % of the float that is short

finance.yahoo.com/q/ks... and HL is

finance.yahoo.com/q/ks...

These short positions have been increasing since last fall and continue to go up. Other gold stocks are not shorted like this. This is artificial suppression and illegal I'm sure with naked shorts.

The only thing I can see is something is going to happen to silver. These guys are big producers- are the maines going to be nationalized on a big move up in silver.

CDE was below 50 cents and short positions continued to be added.

Does anyone know anything that I do not?

Feb 14 01:47 PM

[Spartacuss:]

It is interesting, moving away from technicals, that the metals remain resilient including platinum.With enormous deleveraging continuing and still with multi trillions to go where everything including the kitchen sink is on the block to get the dollars to deleverage with, yet the metals haven't yielded.

Now we see both Dr. Copper and the Baltic Dry Index moving up. Is this a head fake? It would seem to me that China for one is buying commodities again to stockpile...a very smart move; whereas the US is stockpiling more debt vis-a-vis treasury issuance supposedly bought up by eager investers seeking sanctuary...or is it the FED buying treasuries to keep rates down? Hmmm.

Feb 14 10:37 PM

[Steve Soden:]

Fiat money, ALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...

Feb 15 03:20 AM

[Moise Levi:]

Australian and Canadian Dollars are "commodity" related.
When commodities bounce up again, it will be time to switch back to those oversold currencies.

Feb 15 06:48 AM

[Conan the B...:]

Dr. Copper is moving up and so are London and New York stockpiles. More slowly than before, so maybe China no longer purchases in Bulk.

The Baltic Dry is moving up, great now if it could only move up another 500% to be where it was in 2007 and 2008.

If the Current Droughts in China and Australia persist, then BDI will move up some more, but it will not be because of increased trade in other goods.

Exports out of China dropped about 18% and imports dropped 43% in January.

I'm not into the Dry Shipping Sector until economic conditions stop getting worse. But Do own SBLK and Oil Transporter TNK, with hope that TNK moves back below $10.

Feb 15 06:56 AM

[Conan the B...:]

JE: CDE insiders have acquired about a million shares in the last couple of months.

Hecla had to raise capital. The shorts were right.

I own CDE so I follow their exploits.

Feb 15 07:01 AM

[je:]

paultaut
Thanks for the comment. It does not make sense to keep adding shorts to a stock as low as CDE. The short position has even increased almost 3% in the last couple of months with silver and gold going up.

I agree that Helca has continued to disappoint me as well but it does not explain a 12 1/2% short position. I can find no other stock that has a fraction of that amount of short position.

I think there is more behind this.

Feb 15 12:44 PM

[Kunst:]

Based on what, pray tell? Anyone can pick numbers out of the air. I assume you have reasons for yours. How about sharing them with us?


On Feb 14 01:36 PM JE wrote:

> My technical predictions:
>
> FXA to .55
> FXC to .67
> FXY to 1.28

Feb 16 12:41 AM

[je:]

Hi Kunst
I can't present my charts in this forum or I would be more than glad to share that information with you.

Feb 16 07:37 AM

[sa44ron:]

Good call. I bought CDE and HL on Friday the 13th (of February)


On Feb 14 01:47 PM JE wrote:

> I forgot gold
>
> Retrace back to the low $800's one more time. The biggest spending
> program in our history and it could not top the old high I think
> bodes ill for gold before its breakout.
>
> Yes I am a gold bug but I think gold is being suppressed so that
> money is sure to go in bonds.
>
> I also own CDE and HL. If you want to see the largest short positions
> I have ever saw in your life go to Yahoo finance and look at the
> % of the float that is short
>
> finance.yahoo.com/q/ks... and HL is
>
> finance.yahoo.com/q/ks...
>
> These short positions have been increasing since last fall and continue
> to go up. Other gold stocks are not shorted like this. This is artificial
> suppression and illegal I'm sure with naked shorts.
>
> The only thing I can see is something is going to happen to silver.
> These guys are big producers- are the maines going to be nationalized
> on a big move up in silver.
>
> CDE was below 50 cents and short positions continued to be added.
>
>
> Does anyone know anything that I do not?

Feb 17 10:41 AM

[sa44ron:]

Hey, can you plot the Swiss franc, too?

Feb 17 10:44 AM

[MacKay Dave:]

FXA going to .55 would be the bottom seen in approx Aug. 1998 and is also representative of 78.6 retrace from high in 2008

Feb 17 08:52 PM

[Steve Soden:]

You can't trade when governments keep changing the rules!

Mar 20 12:51 AM