Tuesday Trading May Bring New Life to Sirius 363 comments
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In a turn of events worthy of a Hollywood movie script, the New York Post is reporting that “John Malone’s Liberty Media (LINTA) is offering Sirius XM (SIRI) a bridge loan of several hundred million dollars to help pay off debt that matures Tuesday.” The article also mentions that Liberty and Sirius XM are working together on a plan to deal with Sirius XM’s other debt obligations due in May and December.
It appears that Sirius XM has in fact accepted the offer as the following news had come across the Dow Jones Newswires just hours earlier:
S&P Removes Sirius XM Rtgs From CreditWatch Neg
Last update: 2/13/2009 4:31:38 PM
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires (201-938-5400)
February 13, 2009 16:31 ET (21:31 GMT)
With literally hundreds of news agencies reporting that Sirius was heading for a Chapter 11 filing as early as Tuesday, it would appear that the bondholders were given notice of the events that were going on behind closed doors at Sirius XM headquarters.
Taking a step back to review the bigger picture, this should generate a lot of excitement on Wall Street. With credit markets making it hard for struggling companies to survive in the current environment, news of such a bridge loan warrants center stage as other companies may now look to the lead provided by Mel Karmazin and John Malone.
This could turn out to be a SIRI investors' best case scenario as the news had broken after 7 p.m. Friday. Facing a three day weekend, most traders had left for the weekend yet the stock, which had risen nearly 42% during the regular market hours on Friday, rose an additional 23% as the news was breaking. With all of the outstanding debt issues currently being addressed, Tuesday trading may bring new life to the struggling equity. The nagging debt has held SIRI shares down since the completion of the successful merger of the two U.S. satellite radio providers. With the company’s debt issues removed, SIRI investors who have held their shares may finally be rewarded.
Position: Long Sirius XM
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This article has 363 comments:
Long Sirius XM
Anything is possible now in my opinion. However, there are still major challenges in the overall economy, which are being worked on. I think that the SP could see 1.00 by the end of the year at this point. If there is better news in the auto industry (which there should be) and the stimulus package begins flowing to the workers in this country quickly it could be much better. I never fail to remember 2.7 billion in revenue per year. This number is huge and will grow according to Mel. Mel has brought us through this far and I do not see any reason to disbelieve him now. We will increase revenue this year when others are struggling to break even. The debt will be resolved with a partner that is a powerful player in today's media sector. There will also be a very critical look at the contracts which are either in place or need to be renegotiated. After 8 months of agony since the merger, its all up from here IMO. But Tuesday should be great!!!
Long SiriusXM
Long SiriusXM
Thanks for the positive article.I believe as we all do that SIRI is about to turn the corner after walking down the wrong street in the wrong neighborhood for several months.
I can't say, but would suspect that the S&P is privy to information that we are not.... and the timing of reporting probably has little to do with when the info was known...
I am still cautious on this deal getting done until the Company puts out its press release.... cautious or not we are in a fairly helpless position as shareholders. The situation is definitely improving and I am hoping that Mel will use President's day as a day to announce some good news finally for the company and its shareholders......
1. Their Cash & Cash equivalents went from $1.08B on 12/31/07, to $2.99B on 9/31/08.
2. Y O Y Revenues went from $12.4B to $14.4B
3. Most of their increase in COH came from increasing its LTD position from $3.4B to $5.8B. None of this debt is due until 2013 and beyond.
5. Net income for the company gone from 1.1B to 1.2B YoY.
6. DTV has a $500M Revolving credit facility that is fully available for operations as needed or Strategic Investments.
It would appear that DTV is capable, simply by using its $500M for Strategic Investment, to assist in helping to fund Sirius Xm's debt. I am much more encouraged after looking at DTV's financial statements than I was when I looked at DISH and Ergen's position.
What a way to spend your valentines day...digging through financial statements...Thank you for that information...that is HUGE! I believe that this further validates what we are all hoping for. What is the prospect of getting through this without further massive dilution?
news flow is dead hence deal announcement is imminent . . just hope the media doesn't try to spin the dilution angle, which I know they will (enter Cramer stage left).
On Feb 15 10:45 AM cos1000 wrote:
> To fill the time I did do a little digging about DTV and their financial
> condition from their last 10Q for the period ending 9/10/08. Might
> as well get to know who this White Knight is and whether they really
> are in a position to help.....
>
> 1. Their Cash & Cash equivalents went from $1.08B on 12/31/07,
> to $2.99B on 9/31/08.
> 2. Y O Y Revenues went from $12.4B to $14.4B
> 3. Most of their increase in COH came from increasing its LTD position
> from $3.4B to $5.8B. None of this debt is due until 2013 and beyond.
>
> 5. Net income for the company gone from 1.1B to 1.2B YoY.
> 6. DTV has a $500M Revolving credit facility that is fully available
> for operations as needed or Strategic Investments.
>
> It would appear that DTV is capable, simply by using its $500M for
> Strategic Investment, to assist in helping to fund Sirius Xm's debt.
> I am much more encouraged after looking at DTV's financial statements
> than I was when I looked at DISH and Ergen's position.
I enjoyed being out of the Dog House for owning this stock with my wife and dug through the financial statements this morning. Yahoo's Edgar on line makes it fairly easy to do. I posted a summary of highlights and didn't really see any specific downside to DTV that is not part of every company's concerns during this economic down turn. They also used 1.8B of their cash to buy back 69M shares of their stock. Trading shareholder debt for Senior Note debt. Kind of a was but with more corporate control.
for a down'n dirty perspective, take projected pfcf for '09 and apply a 1X next year's growth rate multiple . . . then divide at current dilution, at 75% dilution and at full dilution . . . I can live with that sp for '09 . . . but we have got to show qtr-to-qtr reports that are on target to meet projections!
2 news angles I see in coming days:
1.) shareholders suffer massive dilution (like that's really news)
2.) siri kicks debt-can down the road
If news is not posted as of Tuesday morning what are the thoughts on what will happen? is there a chance that official announcements don't come till after hours Tuesday? What will that mean if so.
Just trying to noodle out all scenarios?
Another scenario is as we heard about Ergen/Echo. Individual investment or company? Malone could be doing this outside of Direct...and with Liberty. That's my feeling. A little on him:
>>John C. Malone
Executive summary: Cable TV billionaire, Liberty Media
Net worth $2.2B (Forbes 2008).
09.20.07
Longtime cable baron abhors taxes, loves dealmaking. Partner to TCI cable founder Bob Magness (d. 1996) sold nation's largest cable company to AT&T in 1999 for $54 billion. Today publicly held holding company, Liberty Media, owns stakes in cable (QVC, Encore, Starz), cell phones (Motorola), online retailing (InterActiveCorp). Ended tense standoff with Rupert Murdoch in April; gave up $11 billion in News Corp. shares for 39% stake in DirecTV and $550 million in cash. Plans to spin off DirecTV with public offering of Liberty Entertainment. In May Liberty swapped 68.5 million shares it held in Time Warner in exchange for that company's pro baseball Atlanta Braves, craft magazines and $960 million cash.<<
Though it's clear through your due diligence DTV would have the resources to make the loan to SIRI and you might be right, my take is it will be desired(for now) to keep these two companies separate even in an investment capacity (yet synergistic)... I think Liberty/Malone will be the actual lender of record at first. Reports said, this would be a few stepped process. Maybe Liberty does the first tranche contingent on if SIRI can prove to live up to their guidance next Q. If so, then maybe Direct money is made available. Not sure they want the initial exposure on Direct just yet.
When Malone did the deal with News Corp., he reportedly got 550M in cash in additionto his stake in DTV. That was '07. Not sure what he did with the 550M but that could be a source of this loan. Conjecture, but just throwing it out there as possible.
I'd also like to extend my thanks to the regular posters for your diligence with regards to this company..... so many metaphor's come to mind for this one, but it truly was darkest, just before the dawn. Certainly still waiting for official word though. (we've been here before)
Also, I find it interesting how many here have military backgrounds, USN here, 1997 - pres. Coincidence?
They were on credit watch I believe till they....
GOT MORE CREDIT...
Well they did, and the banks are probably rollingover loans(or a complete refi might be in the works, with better rates, now that Malone is backing the credit). Not would be great. The dilution is already baked in. Dont let them full you with that. They could only get .13 cents a share from bondholders because those bondholders worried about BK too, im sure. If not, then they new the score, and played hardball, knowing Mel was desperate to use shares instead of cash. With the threat of BK, Ergen will now probalby settle for shares. Just the offer of a bridge loan might have been enough to make Ergen cave.
Or Sirius might not want him getting any shares via a convertible exchange for notes(worried about a common stock take over) and just pay him cash for all bonds due in DEC.
We know no one does.
SI is relased to the general public retro. In general there are two releases per month. An "A" and a "B". As of now, all we know is through Jan B. The Feb A period just closed Friday...unfortunately... it takes 10-13 days before we get...
And btw...If all plays out as anticipated with SIRI debt resolve...SI will no longer matter as much. Sure there will be a squeeze factor of some magnitude, but as was proven on Feb 12 and 13 by news of banks buying huge chunks of common, new investors wil be coming back in and driving the SP up on real buying, not necessarily just on covering.
Sluggish is not the term I would use for its reaction to no BK, and total 09 debt resolutions. Those facts would put it at least back to .32 cents immeditately, and then trade higher all day...Probably ending in the .40-.50 cents range. A good quarter, and were back over $1. Full dilution worries will never let this stock go back to premerger levels, at least not until they show a very good profit for more than one quarter, or buy back stock. If Mel thought there Market cap was 12 billion right after the merger, then thats around 1.50. So theres are target price for all hopeful parties.
1.50 would be best case scenario for this year.
Some here have said all shorts have left...with which I disagree. Feb A just locked up. I'd like to hear your opinions as to what that report will say. Thank you.
I understand your optimism, but optimism has not worked for me during the past 12 months,
The rule is that you buy on the rumors and sell on the news. This could all happen in one day, so I remain pessimistic in the short term but optimistic that eventually I will get my principle back.
Remember that the costs of this deal are likely to be quite high, and there is a reverse split coming.
Still a lot of headwinds for siri.
Hope is not in my vocabulary any more after last year. If the stock hits .32, a progammed trade takes me out and I will be quite pleased.
It just makes no sense to me why a short position would have been held over this long weekend when the SP was at or below .06.
If the BK rumor made 900,000,000 shares sell last week what motivation for buying was stronger. Cover a short position or courage?
I know many of us here viewed .05 as a massive opportunity. (I would have thrown every cent I had into .05 but had already thrown it at .11 before the horror stories broke)
I just feel that the logic for covering was stronger then that of holding waiting for a few more cents to drop. The last new short would have been those who sold on the 5th and 6th of Feb. (while everyone else was buying the rumor that increased price)
On Feb 15 11:48 AM sl62 wrote:
> Oh and about SI...
>
> Some here have said all shorts have left...with which I disagree.
> Feb A just locked up. I'd like to hear your opinions as to what that
> report will say. Thank you.
I too am of the opinion that it is Liberty/Malone through which the investment is being made. I also am curious whether SIRI is going to be involved some way in the spinoff of Liberty entertainment. Still alot of info to come for us to pore through.I don't think he is looking to do all this through DTV here at first though.....I think it would be an issue for the FCC if it was done through DTV....it won't be through Liberty.
Does anyone?
I have been in and out of this stock since the 3.00 days, and have puked it up more than once.
The last time I got in was at .24. This stock has nearly put me in the hospital. (Maybe it did)
The "sluggish" term I used was more related to the posters believing it will break over a dollar or higher. That is whatI was refering to.
I just wanted to respectfully respond with my opinion about your post on the other article about Cramer. All anyone has to do is watch but a few episodes of Mad Money to realize Jim Cramer is a jester. His show is based entirely on entertaining buyers and sellers of common stock. Sure, he will be right on some calls, but mainly he is wrong. Why? Because that is the case with ANYBODY trying to anticipate the market. That's why his opinion of the overall market changes everyday. He has not once stuck to any opinion he has given. First, it was the fortress 4 banks. Then it was the fortress 5. Finally, all he said he would trust is No Trust. He said we would head into a depression if TARP wasn't passed. Then it was passed and he said TARP is the reason we still might head into a depression. Hs calls on SIRI were abominable. And I would offer that most people who have taken his advice, are right now mostly underwater, waiting for their cost basis to come back around. All his sound effects are ridiculous. His hype is insane. All distractions to a "real investor". His goal is to sell his books, keep his ratings high and maintain his self-appointed status of pied piper of the stock market--which he is not.
As far as SIRI goes. As cos1000 said, he was the one who told the world about the hedge....when Mel never would have on his appearance. However Mel never denied it and he agreed with it under his breath. Here's the problem. Just because Cramer know the SP was going down and we didn't believe it...NO ONE knew just how far. No one knew that it would have to go all the way down as it has. So listening to Cramer so you could properly allocate your share buy, is pure conjecture (unless you yourself had a crystal ball). It was NEVER a foregone conclusion the SP would touch .04 in AH. There were many other circumstances in play with this besides Cramer saying the stock will become worthless. To further support that thesis, it is known that Cramer disbelieves in any stock under 1.00 and deems them "worthless". So there is your misnomer. To Cramer an SP is worthless whether it's .90 or .09. And some of us out here know that's untrue.
On Feb 15 12:07 PM skyking wrote:
> WOW...this is great news.....I wonder what effect the NiceMac app
> for I phone is going to have? SEveral of my friends with Iphones
> are waiting for the Apps release They plan to come on board Sirius
> as soon this occurs.If approved this would be a back door into apples
> Millions of Ipods and Iphones...and may even balance off lower car
> units....till economy revives....this is a WIN-WIN either way. Presidents
> day would be a great date to annonuce our Emancipation....Vive Sirius...Vive
> MK
I'm not sure about the FCC regs but you might be right. We never did learn if EchoStar was the official buyer of the reported SIRI debt. Or was it Ergen set up as another entity or what. Being a man worth about 9B, Ergen could have done just about anything. Something tells me he wasn't exposing Echostar's balance sheet when BK was so much part of the mix.
Cos1000 is one of the best numbers guys here and he might very well be right. But my feeling at the moment is for simlar exposure reasons and caveats, DTV may not be the inital source of funding for SIRI. It just seems the prudent thing not to do. DTV is a leader in their space and it would appear pockets are deep enough through Malone/Liberty to get the rescue ball rolling.
Some info on Liberty:
LINTA Profile
Corporate Profile
Liberty Media Corporation New- Interactive Series A
12300 Liberty Boulevard
Englewood, CO 80112
Phone: (720) 875-5400
Web Site: libertymedia.com
Email Address: investor@libertymedia....
Industry: Retail
Sector: Services
Employees: 19,000
Business Summary
Holding company owning interests in a range of electronic retailing, media, communications and entertainment businesses. The Interactive Group will focus on video and on-line commerce businesses.
Officers: Gregory B. Maffei , CEO
Key Statistics and Ratios
Price & Volume Recent Price $3.31
52 Week High $17.58
52 Week Low $1.97
Average Daily Volume 39,402
Beta 2.39
Share Related Items Market Capitalization $1.87 B
Shares Outstanding 593.83 M
Float 558.56 M
Dividend Information Yield 0.00%
Annual Dividend $0.00
Payout Ratio (TTM) 0.00%
Financial Strength (MRQ) Quick Ratio 1.10
Current Ratio 1.80
Long Term Debt/Equity 1.04
Total Debt/Equity 1.16
Valuation Ratios Price/Earnings (TTM) 23.60
Price/Sales (TTM) 0.24
Price/Book (MRQ) 0.27
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) 3.00
Per Share Data Earnings (TTM) $0.14
Sales (TTM) $13.78
Book Value (MRQ) $12.10
Cash Flow (TTM) $1.11
Cash (MRQ) $2.43
Management Effectiveness (TTM) Return on Equity N/A
Return on Assets N/A
Return on Investments N/A
Profitability (TTM) Gross Margin N/A
Profit Margin 1.30%
and I add, was it really necessary for him to tear-up lottery tickets?
maybe he should have done more "homework" before proclaiming a $5 share price
lets go back a little further, say pre-Stern, when cramer had an afternoon radio gig on 92.3 k-rock and continually pounded sirius day-after-day (little conflict of interest there?)
lets remember right after stern, when jim proclaimed that "HD Radio" was the nex big thing and satellite radio had no future (HD what?)
lets remember jim tongue kissing his buddies everyday over at goldman sachs (oh yeah, thats right, they had a big piece of the converts and had a vested interest in shorting the common)
now old jimmie really luved his boyz over at GS cuz they were whispering sweet nothings in his ear. and jim and erin burnett had a real giggle fest with each other and their beloved GS.
that was until GS downgraded GENERAL ELECTRIC. What? how dare they? they must not have the right guys working over there anymore
(for those who aren't aware, GE is the parent of CNBC and jeff Imult is basically Cramer's boss; get it?)
cramer is playing the same game with retail investors he played as a hedgie.
he is not a friend of the common man as he professes. the sooner people stop the idol worship and tune him out the better off they will be.
cramer is the smartest man in the room. just ask him.
On Feb 15 12:07 PM sl62 wrote:
> airman...
>
> I just wanted to respectfully respond with my opinion about your
> post on the other article about Cramer. All anyone has to do is watch
> but a few episodes of Mad Money to realize Jim Cramer is a jester.
> His show is based entirely on entertaining buyers and sellers of
> common stock. Sure, he will be right on some calls, but mainly he
> is wrong. Why? Because that is the case with ANYBODY trying to anticipate
> the market. That's why his opinion of the overall market changes
> everyday. He has not once stuck to any opinion he has given. First,
> it was the fortress 4 banks. Then it was the fortress 5. Finally,
> all he said he would trust is No Trust. He said we would head into
> a depression if TARP wasn't passed. Then it was passed and he said
> TARP is the reason we still might head into a depression. Hs calls
> on SIRI were abominable. And I would offer that most people who have
> taken his advice, are right now mostly underwater, waiting for their
> cost basis to come back around. All his sound effects are ridiculous.
> His hype is insane. All distractions to a "real investor". His goal
> is to sell his books, keep his ratings high and maintain his self-appointed
> status of pied piper of the stock market--which he is not.
>
> As far as SIRI goes. As cos1000 said, he was the one who told the
> world about the hedge....when Mel never would have on his appearance.
> However Mel never denied it and he agreed with it under his breath.
> Here's the problem. Just because Cramer know the SP was going down
> and we didn't believe it...NO ONE knew just how far. No one knew
> that it would have to go all the way down as it has. So listening
> to Cramer so you could properly allocate your share buy, is pure
> conjecture (unless you yourself had a crystal ball). It was NEVER
> a foregone conclusion the SP would touch .04 in AH. There were many
> other circumstances in play with this besides Cramer saying the stock
> will become worthless. To further support that thesis, it is known
> that Cramer disbelieves in any stock under 1.00 and deems them "worthless".
> So there is your misnomer. To Cramer an SP is worthless whether it's
> .90 or .09. And some of us out here know that's untrue.
First week of last July Cramer was screaming why the SP is gowing down to $2.75... It should double to $5.... despite he was aware of all debt problems and dilutions.
Day of merger, he call Siri a $ 2 lottery ticket... I wonder what kind of bizz degree he has.. even at McDonald university they teach them better economics.
Martin is bugging out, and that leaves the FCC with a bias toward trust busting like we have never seen before teddy roosevelt. M@A activity will be very probematic in this new era.
I think what we have developing here is a joint venture that is designed to avoid FCC interferences.
In my humble opinion...............
Yes 900M shares traded but as I mentioned in another post, much of that was at an SP between .05 - .07. So that's 50% of the SP as when it was trrading .10 -.14. You have to build in that some of the trade blocks were also increased by the same amount. I would say many. When the price drops that drastically, people can buy more shares for the same money as when it was 50% higher--and most of the time they will.
Anyway, if the last report was 271.9M...I was just asking to those who think all the shorts cleared out, what will the Feb A report say (which is now locked up).
Also remember, BK was not yet off the table as of the close on Fri. I think some shorts didn't want to be so over the weekend, but just as many longs didn't sell to protect from an unfavorable Tuesday (or weekend announcement), neither did shorts on the cover side. ALL shorts under a $5 position are institutions, and as such they trade much differently than the average indie investor. They are set up in different stop configs and have different access to MM's (and for that matter some of which are MM's themselves). So just by looking at CHTR, who traded @ .02 all day Friday after BK announcement, institutional shorts will wait until the fat lady has sung on this. So far she's only doing her warm-up scales.
Liberty Media Corporation INVESTMENT SUMMARY (as of 11.20.2008)
Liberty Media Corporation is a holding company that owns interests in a broad range of electronic retailing, media, communications and entertainment businesses. Those interests are attributed to three tracking stock groups: Liberty Capital, Liberty Entertainment, and Liberty Interactive.
The following table sets forth some of Liberty Media’s major assets that are held directly and indirectly through partnerships, joint ventures, common stock investments and instruments convertible into common stock. Ownership percentages in the table are approximate and, where applicable, assume conversion to common stock by Liberty Media and, to the extent known by Liberty Media, other holders. In some cases, Liberty Media’s interest may be subject to buy/sell procedures, repurchase rights or dilution.
LIBERTY CAPITAL
ENTITY DESCRIPTION OF OPERATING BUSINESS ATTRIBUTED OWNERSHIP
Atlanta National League Baseball Club, Inc. Owner of the Atlanta Braves, a major league baseball club, as well as certain of the Atlanta Braves' minor league clubs. 100%
Current Group, LLC Provider of Broadband over Powerline (BPL) solutions and services to electric distribution companies. 8% 1
Embarq Corporation
(NYSE: EQ) Provider of a suite of communications services to customers in its local services territories, including local and long distance voice, data, high speed internet, wireless and entertainment services. 3%
Hallmark Entertainment Investments Co. Owner of controlling interest in Crown Media Holdings, Inc., the owner and operator of U.S. cable television channels, including the Hallmark Channel. 11% 2
Jingle Networks, Inc. Operator of the advertiser-supported 1.800.FREE411 service which allows callers to obtain residential, business and government telephone numbers for no charge. 9% 3
Kroenke Arena Company, LLC Owner of the Denver Nuggets basketball team, the Colorado Avalanche hockey team and the Pepsi Center, a sports and entertainment facility in Denver, Colorado. 6.5%
Leisure Arts, Inc. Publisher and marketer of needlework, craft, decorating, entertaining and other lifestyle interest "how-to" books. 100%
LodgeNet Entertainment Corporation
(Nasdaq: LNET) Provider of media and connectivity services designed to meet the unique needs of hospitality, healthcare and other visitor and guest-based businesses. 9%
MacNeil/Lehrer Productions Producer of “The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer” in addition to documentaries, web sites, interactive DVD's, civic engagement projects and educational programs. 67%
Motorola, Inc.
(NYSE: MOT) Provider of integrated communications solutions and embedded electronic solutions. 3%
Overture Films, LLC Motion picture studio plans to make 8 to 12 feature-length films a year. 100%
priceline.com, Incorporated
(Nasdaq: PCLN) Provider of an e-commerce service allowing consumers to make offers on products and services. 1%
Sprint Nextel Corporation
(NYSE: S) Provider of a comprehensive range of communications services bringing mobility to consumer, business and government customers. 3% 4
Starz Media, LLC (formerly IDT Entertainment) Creator and distributor of animated and live-action programming, creator of content under contract for other media companies, and leading independent home video/DVD entertainment company. 100%
Time Warner Inc.
(NYSE: TWX) Media and entertainment company whose businesses include filmed entertainment, interactive services, television networks, cable systems, music and publishing. 3%
TruePosition, Inc. Developer and implementer of advanced wireless location products, services and devices in a cross-carrier environment, including potential for use in connection with social networks, mobile gaming companies, search companies, mobile advertisers and providers of music, comedy and entertainment content to wireless devices. 100%
Viacom Inc.
(NYSE: VIA) Global media company, with positions in broadcast and cable television, radio, outdoor advertising, and online. Brands include CBS, MTV, Nickelodeon, Nick at Nite, VH1, BET, Paramount Pictures, Infinity Broadcasting, Viacom Outdoor, UPN, TV Land, Comedy Central, CMT: Country Music Television, Spike TV, Showtime, Blockbuster, and Simon & Schuster. 1%
WFRV and WJMN Television
Station, Inc. CBS broadcast affiliate that serves Green Bay, Wisconsin and Escanaba, Michigan. 100%
LIBERTY ENTERTAINMENT
ENTITY DESCRIPTION OF OPERATING BUSINESS ATTRIBUTED OWNERSHIP
The DIRECTV Group, Inc.
(NASDAQ: DTV) Provider of digital television entertainment services to more than 16.8 million customers in the United States and over 5.0 million customers in Brazil, Mexico and other countries in Latin America.
52%
FUN Technologies Inc. Online and interactive casual games provider. Provides cutting-edge gaming systems to top distribution partners around the world. 100%
Game Show Network, LLC Operator of GSN, a cable television channel featuring multi-platform interactive game programs, and GSN.com, an internet gaming site. 50%
Liberty Sports Holdings, LLC Provider of sports oriented programming in Denver, Pittsburgh and Seattle and surrounding areas. 100%
PicksPal, Inc. Provider of free online games, information and entertainment for sports fans. 73%
Starz Entertainment, LLC Provider of video programming distributed by cable operators, direct-to-home satellite providers, other distributors and via the Internet throughout the United States. 100%
WildBlue Communications, Inc. Provider of two-way broadband Internet access via satellite to homes and small businesses in rural markets underserved by terrestrial broadband alternatives. 37% 5
LIBERTY INTERACTIVE
ENTITY DESCRIPTION OF OPERATING BUSINESS ATTRIBUTED OWNERSHIP
Backcountry.com, Inc. E-commerce business that sells performance gear for backcountry adventures, including backpacking, climbing, skiing, snowboarding, trail running and adventure travel. Backcountry.com also operates BackcountryOutlet.com, Dogfunk.com, Tramdock.com, SteepandCheap.com and WhiskeyMilitia.com. 81%
Bodybuilding.com E-Commerce business that sells supplements, clothing, tanning supplies, accessories and other bodybuilding products as well as hosts an online site where visitors can network and exchange information related to bodybuilding. 83%
Borba, LLC Provider of full range of nutraceutical and cosmeceutical products. 25%
BUYSEASONS, Inc. Online retailers of costumes, accessories, seasonal décor and party supplies. BUYSEASONS, Inc. also operates BuyCostumes.com and CelebrateExpress.com. 100%
Expedia, Inc.
(Nasdaq: EXPE) Empowers business and leisure travelers with the tools and information needed to research, plan, book and experience travel. It also provides wholesale travel to offline retail travel agents. Expedia's main companies include: Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Expedia Corporate Travel, TripAdvisor and Classic Vacations. Expedia's companies operate internationally in Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and China. 24% 6
GSI Commerce, Inc.
(Nasdaq: GSIC) Provider of outsourced e-commerce solutions. 19.7%
HSN, Inc.
(Nasdaq: HSNI) A retailer and interactive lifestyle network offering and assortment of products through television home shopping programming on HSN television network and HSN.com. 30%
IAC/InteractiveCorp
(Nasdaq:IACI) Operator of businesses in sectors being transformed by the internet, online and offline. Comprised of Cornerstone Brands, Inc.; HSE24; Shoebuy.com; RealEstate.com; ServiceMagic; Match.com; Entertainment Publications; Ask.com; Citysearch; Evite; Gifts.com; iBuy; Pronto; and CollegeHumor. 30% 7
Interval Leisure Group, Inc.
(Nasdaq: IILG) Provider of membership services to the vacation ownership industry. 30%
Provide Commerce, Inc. E-commerce marketplace company providing a collection of branded websites each offering high quality, perishable products shipped directly from the supplier to the consumer and designed specifically around the way consumers shop. Comprised of Cherry Moon Farms, ProFlowers, Secret Spoon Sweets, Sharis Berries, and Red Envelope. 100%
QVC, Inc. Markets and sells a wide variety of consumer products in the U.S. and several foreign countries, primarily by means of televised shopping programs on the QVC networks and via the Internet through its domestic and international websites. 100%
Ticketmaster
(Nasdaq: TKTM) Ticketmaster is a live ticketing and marketing company. 30%
Tree.com (Lending Tree)
(Nasdaq: TREE) An online lending and real estate business which matches consumers with lenders and loan brokers . 30%
Notes:
1) Liberty Media owns interests in Current Group, LLC through two different partnerships, Liberty Associated Partners and Associated Partners.
2) Liberty Media has an approximate indirect 9% economic ownership in Crown Media Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWN) through its investment in Hallmark Entertainment Investments Co.
3) Liberty Media owns interests in Jingle Networks, Inc. through two different partnerships, Liberty Associated Partners and Associated Partners.
4) Less than 1% of voting power. Liberty Media beneficially owns shares of Sprint Nextel common stock and instruments convertible into Sprint Nextel common stock.
5) In addition to its approximately 37% equity interest in WildBlue, Liberty Media also owns 53% of a first lien credit facility of WildBlue and 50% of a second lien credit facility of WildBlue. This debt is attributed to Liberty Capital.
6) Liberty Media owns approximately 24% of Expedia common stock representing an approximate 58% voting interest; however, the Chairman and CEO of Expedia currently has the authority to vote these shares.
7) Liberty Media owns approximately 30% of IAC common stock representing an approximate 62% voting interest; however, the Chairman and CEO of IAC currently has the authority to vote these shares.
INVESTOR RELATIONS Overview Stock Quotes Financial Reports SEC Filings Asset List Analysts Events Company Overview Corporate Governance Investor Relations Stock Cost Basis Press Releases Careers Liberty Capital Liberty Entertainment Liberty Interactive © 2009 Liberty Media Corporation Privacy Contact Us Terms & Conditions
I guess you didn't really rad my posts on the other board. Or you just by-passed the point i was making. Which by the way was originally an off-hand comment about where i originally got the idea to do the research to invest in SIRI.
"Sure, he will be right on some calls, but mainly he is wrong."
I never said he would be right on any calls. As a matter of fact I said you shouldnt be listening to his buy,buy,buy and sell,sell,sell. THE WHOLE POINT ONCE AGAIN is that he does bring up alot of interesting information and stocks that i would have never heard about. THEN you go figure out if it is worth it to you as an investor after you research yourself!!!
I did make the point had I listened and followed his advice after the merger I would now have more than 2x the amount of shares I have now. And wish I did. But I didnt understand why and didnt do enough research to figure out why he said it.
If in the end you buy on anyone elses information other than your own research you are magnifying your risk on any stock pick.
As you see with the other response to your post that people here are not rational when his name comes up. PILE ON. it even followed to a different thread.
I find these kind of posts just as bad as the Value of Vic types.
And they make people like me not post that, "DO NOT BOW AT THE ALTER OF CRAMER" as i once saw a post say, but see some value in the interesting points he makes about stocks i new nothing about till he brought them up.
After selling short at .20 something you would then look for an exit point.
Viola the BK rumors. Shares were trading as low as .045.
Weekend coming, SP at .06 mabye good news maybe not however the story of rescue operations began at .06 and were not rebutted.
In Short (pardon my pun) any short who still holds a position deserves to be spanked. I wish I was allowed to short. I would have shorted on the 5th (rather then sell the shares I sold) Oh wait in essence I did short since I sold shares and then rebought at lower price. My bad was I rebought before the BK stories drove price down to .05
On Feb 15 12:38 PM sl62 wrote:
> mogami_99...
>
> Yes 900M shares traded but as I mentioned in another post, much of
> that was at an SP between .05 - .07. So that's 50% of the SP as when
> it was trrading .10 -.14. You have to build in that some of the trade
> blocks were also increased by the same amount. I would say many.
> When the price drops that drastically, people can buy more shares
> for the same money as when it was 50% higher--and most of the time
> they will.
>
> Anyway, if the last report was 271.9M...I was just asking to those
> who think all the shorts cleared out, what will the Feb A report
> say (which is now locked up).
>
> Also remember, BK was not yet off the table as of the close on Fri.
> I think some shorts didn't want to be so over the weekend, but just
> as many longs didn't sell to protect from an unfavorable Tuesday
> (or weekend announcement), neither did shorts on the cover side.
> ALL shorts under a $5 position are institutions, and as such they
> trade much differently than the average indie investor. They are
> set up in different stop configs and have different access to MM's
> (and for that matter some of which are MM's themselves). So just
> by looking at CHTR, who traded @ .02 all day Friday after BK announcement,
> institutional shorts will wait until the fat lady has sung on this.
> So far she's only doing her warm-up scales.
Sorry for the long posts.....just want to make sure that info is availalbe for all.
What will it mean if no official news comes out by COB Tues?
I think it is possible we wont know till after after-hours trading. maybe not probably but possible. Will people panic again with no official news?
I think a significant portions of shorts got out this week but it is unclear. I have no idea how to figure it out by the options trading ... anyone have a clear idea how many shorts left?
Could there be even more dilution? What does that mean about the share price we can expect? I know lower but what are the possible amounts of shares that can be added from this situation?
I am still debating if I am going to take some off or not if the news holds. I may so if it retracts after the pop I can get back in with no investment. But this may not work this time.
just want to be ready for all scenarios
On Feb 15 12:52 PM asm61064 wrote:
> All,
>
> Sorry for the long posts.....just want to make sure that info is
> availalbe for all.
Ready to worry less about Tuesday.
72 articles were the main theme was Sirius. These articles used 2 things to base them off of.
1. Insiders sources close to the deal, these sources were from the WSJ only.
2. Press release from Sirius(which I still have never read or seen, stating possible bk tuesday.
72 articles and about 25 more mentioning Sirius in them.
Since S & P news and NY Post article and the debt sale in Dec.......
0 from the main stream media. All sources from the 72 has yet to comment since.
ANYONE HERE still want to debate with me that the media in unbiased and FOR THE COMMON investor....
Ill be here waiting....
So the MSM went from 20 a day(unheard of by the way) to zero. Do you really think if there was ANY negative angle to those three news stories you woulndt have heard something in 3 DAYS NOW.
3 days later they pop in to see if it hit zero yet, and see 1.20 next to it...No stories from the WSJ or the AP appear anywhere about this stock.
They have to keep it out of the news next week, or people will notice the SP jump. No bad news, then there is NO NEWS.
Nothing against you dude and no offense. Just giving my opinion on Cramer the man. I got your point earlier and if it's worth listening to all is childish SFX and consistent proselytizing to get a suggestion or two...then that's your business. I get most of my suggestions from the daily ticker and then check out what I have just seen related to their SP performance...which then leads to further research into the company itself. It's not from a raving lunatic..."House of pleasure"..."House of Pain"..."That was easy"...too distracting for me. I don't hold it against you. I just can't sift through all his bs and self-aggrandization anymore. Like SR said, "just ask him." Once in a while suggestions aside, I'm calling him out on his lack of character, his un-apologetic pushing his books in front of the camera lens, and how he thinks he's some kind of genius. It's not piling on. What we're pointing out are facts not fiction. The guy's right there on the TV, no need to wonder. Again, if you like him/respect him, you're certainly entitled.
Not sure if it is directly related but it is interesting:
SEC FilingsPREM14A
LIBERTY MEDIA CORP filed this Form PREM14A on 01/22/09
<< Previous Page | Next Page >>
Use these links to rapidly review the document
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Annex C—Liberty Entertainment, Inc., LMC Entertainment and Liberty Media Corporation Financial Statements INDEX TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Annex D—The DIRECTV Group, Inc. Financial Information
Table of Contents
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
SCHEDULE 14A
I couldn't copy and paste the whole document....it's much too long...but it is worth reading over. My take is that SIRI is somehow connected to this spin off...but it is just my take.
LOL...your "hindsight is 20/20" comments make no sense to me. You should change your moniker to Cramer_99!!
On Feb 15 01:03 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> No, they are shutting up now, they dont even want Sirius in the head
> lines anymore...This is what they hope for...The common investor
> looks away from Sirius, thinking BK is inevitable...
> 3 days later they pop in to see if it hit zero yet, and see 1.20
> next to it...No stories from the WSJ or the AP appear anywhere about
> this stock.
> They have to keep it out of the news next week, or people will notice
> the SP jump. No bad news, then there is NO NEWS.
We are on the same page......Love the WSJ quote! So true......
No you werent just stating an opinion you were responding to my comments. Now are you saying they werent responses to my context?
Even this last post seems to be putting me down for admiting listening to a "childish SFX and consistent proselytizing","raving lunatic","bs and self-aggrandization", "lack of character". instead of the "daily ticker"
But of course you are just pointing out "facts".
You even say to me "Again, if you like him/respect him, you're certainly entitled." I never said such i just said that he is where I found out about sirius and that there are other interesting stocks you may not hear about otherwise that he brings up.
Maybe not you but most people hate him because the lost money because they only listened to "buy,buy,buy" rather than "Do your own homework".
Hence the reason why many do not post here!! Cause you never know will set people off.
"Nothing against you dude and no offense" okay sure sure
agreed as long as it isnt a head fake by Direct until the last minute.
My question is more about what will happen to the stock that day if no official news surfaces till after hours? no matter what the real deal is!
I am with you, I actually bought more at .06 specifically because there was to many unsubstantiated stories that seemed to be pushed. I have heard so much talk about the unsophisticated investor that it seemed this was done to take advantage of them... but then again I am an unsophisticated so maybe i got burned and didnt know it anyway:)
This is getting good. Malone is the man. Karmazine is the man as well. Drop the stock as low as possible, put out speculation that there is possible bk.
Buy in low @ .06 and .08 with in 48 hours of claiming BK watch the market readjust with the direct TV buy in that was going to happen, and every one becomes a winner.
Stock becomes stabilized and the shorts are out, this is great.
On Feb 15 01:14 PM sl62 wrote:
> mogami_99
>
> LOL...your "hindsight is 20/20" comments make no sense to me. You
> should change your moniker to Cramer_99!!
Here is the link from Sirius Xm's press release on Friday 13th. Note the 4th paragraph for the statement about BK.
investor.sirius.com/re...
asm6,
Thanks for the information.
all,
I do not disagree that the financing could come from Malone directly or Liberty the holding company. It would appear that all of these sources, not sure about Liberty directly with them trying to spin off, are capable and that is what is important with so little in the way of facts available.
The Jim Cramer issue is a road traveled that leads us to nowhere, IMHO. I personally don't listen to him when he says the SP is going to $5 any more than when he says its worthless. My only point on the other thread, and I didn't understand it at the time (end of July), is when the bond sale and shares lent release to support was out there, he was right that the bondholders would be in control until after Feb. 09. Given I didn't understand what that really meant, and many who post here didn't either, it was not actionable information and is now pointless information. Love Cramer, Hate Crame, who cares........ Been there, done that already
Geez, It made sense. But if you say its impossible based on the FCC merger requirements I will believe you. Still doesnt change the fact that the FCC license going to Ergen in bk court would be impossible. No way there giving bandwidth awarded to XM/Sirius merger to DISH.
So did they really ever have anythign to worry about. Im sure it would have just been given in court to Sirius. You should consider this before your so sure...Possible the FCC already told Sirius how they would respond to ECHOSTARS take over attempt, and how it would be handled. I know BKing XM was a last resort, but I will never believe they EVER intended to BK the combinded enitity. Your bearish veiw on siriusbuzz was unfounded, and you fell for the same media bs as everyone else did. Its ok, you came around. I forgive you.
72 articles written about Sirius from Tuesday to today. All using 2 sources of information..
1. Some unnamed source and a press release from Sirius, which I still havent seen.
Since news of S & P removal of credit watch, the sale of DEC bonds(reworking of them) and moving them to 2011, and the NY post story broke....ZERO articles from those same news sources.
ZERO...Basically 3 facts no comment
No facts...72 COMMENTS...
So how did you fall for it? Are you a true bull?
Thats not exactly a press release concerning bk..Its more of a legal warning...So they covered that line only in the MSM...Nice...Thats even more laughable...
Forget what the filing means, go to the warning about bk as focus on that...Very suspicious to say the least. No opinion on what it could mean, but plenty of opinion on the bk option..They should all be sued for sp manipulation by Sirius.
thanks for the acknowledgement. Just trying to help however I can. Besides....having others look at what I can find helps me too. I need others take on this info. It's impossible as we all know to be aware of every possibility out there. The more the merrier!
On Feb 15 01:46 PM cos1000 wrote:
> relmor,
> Here is the link from Sirius Xm's press release on Friday 13th. Note
> the 4th paragraph for the statement about BK.
>
> investor.sirius.com/re...
2. Just in case, you never know.
3. It was for XM, not the combined company. Better to take them BK, then both. More logical. They can work around an XM bk....No stockholders to piss off, number 1.
Homer thinks they have negative 99 million COH if they pay FEB debt with cash. But he assumes NFL and MLB payments were coming from COH and not an escrow account, were the money already sits. I feel if anything Sirius asked them to use some of this money to pay debt, but return it as soon as they were able.. Possible after selling shares AFTER the SP rebounded from avoiding BK and Feb debt issues....
Liberty Capital group
The Capital group includes all of our businesses and assets that are not attributed to either the Interactive group or the Entertainment group. Businesses and assets attributed to the Capital group include our subsidiaries Starz Media, LLC, Atlanta National League Baseball Club, Inc., and TruePosition, Inc., and minority equity investments in Time Warner Inc. and Sprint Nextel Corporation.
They based all these stories on that?
Good Grief!
On Feb 15 01:51 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> Ok sl62 I saw that...
> Thats not exactly a press release concerning bk..Its more of a legal
> warning...So they covered that line only in the MSM...Nice...Thats
> even more laughable...
> Forget what the filing means, go to the warning about bk as focus
> on that...Very suspicious to say the least. No opinion on what it
> could mean, but plenty of opinion on the bk option..They should all
> be sued for sp manipulation by Sirius.
I don't buy the -99 mil COH figure at all. Mel stated in Nov I believe at some automotive function that they had something like 360 Mil COH at that time! They have done nothing to date but increase revenue with new fees and making people recognize the value of a lifetime sub if they love the product so much.....so where the hell is pulling that figure from....his anus! Unless Mel is lying cork sucker.....a fargin icehole........homers assumption is absurd!
As far as the press release containing the BK statement as a legal warning or disclosure, of course it is... That doesn't change the risk reality. This deal is not done until it is....
My last call on what will happen when the risk of the company, Sirius Xm, not going BK on Tuesday, was that the relief rally and smile on my face would be worth .10 to .12 cents from where we start... At the time I thought .18 -21 cents but with an AH close of nearer to .13 and rising, I now think we could spike past .30 and settle in at the .24 - .28 cent range. As everyone has said, the devil is always in the details, and the announcement has not been made yet. No announcement in the morning and we will see it drop down again to .08 IMHO. But, that is all a guess based on past channels, with no dilution on shares for debt, and a good solid press release at 8 am., we good easily jump into the .5-.75 cent range.
I don't know what they have for COH, but do not believe that it is any less than what they reported at the end of their 3Q, given that they generated cash from B of B and subscription resets in the 4Q. Also new subscriptions in OEM's actually cost them money from operations for chipsets and rev share with the OEMs, so slower growth hear may actually increase margins and FCF. Also their push was not for retail through advertising, but retail probably grew from 3Q, which was low and the margins are better. On top of that, the merger synergies were going to be realized in the 4Q, and most downsizing costs were taken in the 3Q. With all of that I doubt that there was a big cash burn but rather a positive kick, even if only 40M from FC.
I too thought the MLB contract escrow of $120M was to pay 2009, and 2010. Unfortunately it is not. It is for the 2011, and 2012 years, making 2009 and 2010 payments having to be made out of COH. They would have to renegotiate this contract (good luck) in order to change this. I argued and lost with Homer about this. The information is on XM's 2007, 10K, p. 45, I checked and confirmed it.
A hedge fund game.
On Feb 15 02:15 PM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, I wanted to see if it was a generic thing contained in all 8ks
> and such. I read Googles they do not have one. I read Apples no BK
> disclaimers. I read several others. The only companies I found a
> BK disclaimer were Sirius and companies that have since filing the
> 8k have in fact went BK or are still in distress.
>
>
Ask yourself this would you rather spend 1 billion or 2 billion to have a major stake in the company.
Hi, OK that bothers me. I thought BK was never possible because of COH.
The way I understood things was Sirius said they would rather refinance or issue shares and preferred not to use COH. (implying they had the COH if needed)
It's not only affecting SIRI. It's affecting all of the companies with negative cash flows.
Until they can stabalize it,which Mel promises to do, they are paying exorbitant rates, or cannot make a rational deal. The company still has good assets, but credit is way too tight at present. This makes BK more than just a option and why the statement was inserted.
On Feb 15 02:46 PM mogami_99 wrote:
> "They don't insert a BK disclaimer until such a fact is possible
> due to a inability to fund current liabilities without investor or
> bank assist . But the thing is, that this is a legal requirement
> and the potential for BK has existed for a few months. "
>
> Hi, OK that bothers me. I thought BK was never possible because of
> COH.
> The way I understood things was Sirius said they would rather refinance
> or issue shares and preferred not to use COH. (implying they had
> the COH if needed)
Check this out?????
"US, UK Credit Ratings Look Set to Be Downgraded
The credit rating agency Moody's has said that the UK and US credit ratings were being "tested". In a novel and somewhat bizarre departure, Moody's has split various "AAA" sovereign countries into three categories based on their strength in weathering the economic storm, denoting Ireland and Spain as the weakest, with the UK and US somewhere in the middle and Germany, France, Canada and the Scandinavian nations at the top.
This will in time be seen as gimmickry. Standard and Poor's have already downgraded Spain to AA+ and did not create sub grades within the credit rating system.">>>&g...
<This makes BK more than just a option and why the statement was inserted.>
It doesn't make it anything but a statement of cause and effect... If we can't pay our bills we will default and seek BK protection, period.
I was once in that same position with my company so that statement was nothing more to me than a statement of fact for investors, and not worthy of so much attention to something we had known for some time, yet it drove the SP to .5 or less
I think that in and of it's self is really the newworthy part and the why of it.
But we will never see that in print.
I hope that explains my statement more fully.
On Feb 15 03:10 PM cos1000 wrote:
> wirestripper,
> <This makes BK more than just a option and why the statement was
> inserted.>
>
> It doesn't make it anything but a statement of cause and effect...
> If we can't pay our bills we will default and seek BK protection,
> period.
PERIOD ENDING 30-Sep-08 30-Jun-08 31-Mar-08 31-Dec-07
Total Revenue 488,442 283,017 270,350 249,816
Cost of Revenue 101,142 223,325 236,168 273,092
Gross Profit 387,300 59,692 34,182 (23,276)
Operating Expenses
Research Development 10,407 9,028 8,656 7,946
Selling General and Administrative 378,780 91,599 87,245 90,894
Non Recurring 4,758,316 - - -
Others 66,774 27,113 26,906 27,638
Total Operating Expenses 5,214,277 - - -
Operating Income or Loss (4,826,977) (68,048) (88,625) (149,754)
Income from Continuing Operations
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 1,069 1,438 2,725 4,188
Earnings Before Interest And Taxes (4,828,997) (66,610) (85,900) (145,566)
Interest Expense 49,215 16,746 17,675 19,887
Income Before Tax (4,878,212) (83,356) (103,575) (165,453)
Income Tax Expense 1,215 543 543 770
Minority Interest - - - -
Net Income From Continuing Ops (4,879,427) (83,899) (104,118) (166,223)
Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations - - - -
Extraordinary Items - - - -
Effect Of Accounting Changes - - - -
Other Items - - - -
Net Income (4,879,427) (83,899) (104,118) (166,223)
Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments - - - -
Net Income Applicable To Common Shares ($4,879,427) ($83,899) ($104,118) ($166,223
Makes sense to KNOW if without shares if Sirius could pay its bills or not with COH. Forcing the COH issue was Egens game the whole time. Dont renegotiate the debt, dont take shares(as the automatic converstion price was no where near met) and force Sirius to deal with him or go to bk court, where he has a shot at cheap assets he can use, or even control of the whole company. Its still a win win for Ergen, but Malone is makign sure its only a small win. Baseball keeps it contract(no BK), NFL keeps its contract(no bk court), Mel keeps his job(no Ergen control or bk judge booting him) and everyones shares remain relevant(keeping the stock dilution on the table again.)
If this is how it plays out, its brillant. Mel will be my CEO of 2009.
If if if,this is the longest weekend to me..Doesnt it seem long
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a0...
And please I dont want to get into a 40 post arguement like I did the last time. Learn from your history.
Ever watch paint dry......that's how long this weekend has become.
What thread are you on over there??
I agree, and now that I understand the escrow payment of 120M is for the last two years, accounting properly would accrue the 2009 payment for both these contracts as will be done for the 2010 payment. They are operating expenses not capital investments. They should be in the monthly, ergo, quarterly #s as an accrual. I personally have not tracked it down and at this point probably won't. Homer seems to be trying to put a dampener on all the excitement in saying that the BK filing is still a very real possibility. At this point I am going with it not being probable although is possible. Nothing left to do but wait. If they are going to file it will be announced before we can do anything about it anyways.....
On Feb 15 03:35 PM 163888 wrote:
> cos1000, I have left a rebuttle to Homer (in the forums) on what
> he was talking about for COH. I reminded him that the company has
> revenue for each quarter that some cost get taken out of that, that
> it is the cash burn you need to look at not just the payments due.
> I say that because his figures did not makes sense to me his figures
> seemed to high I dont believe there cash burn was that great 1st
> and second quarter of last year. He still has not replied, I would
> really like to hear his answer on it.
Key statement from that article:
"Mr Malone sees the proposed deal as a “good financial investment”, the person said."
good financial investment
as proof look at the volume that happened in the days the PPS was between .12 and .13
Should have been .05 and .13
Assets
Current Assets
Cash And Cash Equivalents 359,657 220,133 252,508 438,820
Short Term Investments - 35,465 35,461 35,469
Net Receivables 127,894 99,017 92,735 104,072
Inventory 31,935 23,616 25,344 29,537
Other Current Assets 219,278 51,328 52,716 70,959
Total Current Assets 738,764 429,559 458,764 678,857
Long Term Investments 141,250 21,000 - -
Property Plant and Equipment 1,700,279 812,307 798,852 806,263
Goodwill 1,875,645 - - -
Intangible Assets 2,777,866 83,654 83,654 83,654
Accumulated Amortization - - - -
Other Assets 223,301 98,822 116,768 111,511
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 45,969 11,143 11,785 13,864
Total Assets 7,503,074 1,456,485 1,469,823 1,694,149
Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 874,106 373,735 333,523 489,715
Short/Current Long Term Debt 572,646 302,498 304,749 35,801
Other Current Liabilities 957,328 575,666 561,710 548,330
Total Current Liabilities 2,404,080 1,251,899 1,199,982 1,073,846
Long Term Debt 2,800,107 977,369 977,994 1,278,617
Other Liabilities 904,472 24,272 19,424 23,898
Deferred Long Term Liability Charges 1,378,666 110,064 111,857 110,525
Minority Interest - - - -
Negative Goodwill - - - -
Total Liabilities 7,487,325 2,363,604 2,309,257 2,486,886
thanks for the link, and a "good financial investment" sounds good to me also.
Little concerning that they are stating that the company does not have enough COH to take care of the Feb debt though...
asm6,
the paint is almost dry in my little part of the room..... now if I could only get that grass to grow.....
the grass will hopefully look real good by Wed or Thurs. I'm not even nervous....just anxious to get it over with one way or the other at this point.
You go away and spend a little time with your wife and you guys manage to write War and peace.
Anyway, a few thoughts
On BK filings-
The amount of time required for a filing to be processed, let alone be addressed, indicated the FEB DEBT IS NOT THE REASON. The COH that Sirius has would be required by A Judge to settle debt before filing. Statements last year by Mel indicated that a COH number would cover the Feb Debt. To ensure survival of the parent company XM holdings files for Bankruptcy. The FCC license and subs still belong to the parent company. The Sats, repeators, Office buildings and equipment of XM holdings would most likely exceed the Debt. Any Accountant in their right mind would not lend money without an asset to secure in the event of BK. The disclaimer in the financial statements indicated that the parent is not responsible for the subsidary debt, and visa versa. These facts make the BK being a XM holding only issue. With the potential of Liberty being the white knight to rescue Sirius from the debts problems, nuff said.
On Share price-
The current price is what it is!! The merger changed the price from $3 to $1.50 practically overnight. Mr. Market determines the price. Mr. Market is a conglomeration of many corporations, investment houses, and common investors. What you or I individually believe the price to be, is moot. After the merger, credit conditions, upcoming Dilution, and the release of the Ernst & Young brought about the $1.50 to $1.00 drop. Slower than predicted Domestic Auto sales, and upcoming Debt with no announcements, slammed this stock to BK price levels of .05.
Futures-
Don't use reverse logic to reverse the stock price.
Consider the following
1) TARP funds were not used to bailout this company. GM, Ford, AIG, BAC , and others are going to have their hands full with regulations laid out by a bunch of people (lawmakers) than can't balance their own debt. The constraints laid out by Liberty has to be much less invasive.
2) Little pressure from debt in 2010 ( will find out exactly how much in 1Q statement)
3) Domestic Auto sales increasing from 2009 levels of 8.5 million (maybe 9 million) will make saturation rate an impact on share price.
4) Transfer of assets for Debt reduction. (there is currently too many SATs in orbit..ditch 'em) Scheduled Loral SAT for launch could be retrofit or set-up for dual use with Liberty.
5) Reverse split with the Cancellation or Reduction of Authorized shares to be released.
Any of the above conditions could contribute to a 15%+ gain in share price. The most significant development would be the fifth item. without the fifth item, a SP of more than .50 would be very optimistic.
I agree, tat BK is still in the headwind list but is moving down and off the front end, assuming the NYP story is accurate and at this late date after posting, it appears that it is.
Mel has once again proved why he was hired and that is why I have continued to trade this stock as a longshot. I can't seem to get away from it, even after taking a beating.
I want only to get my principle back and I will let the rest ride and perhaps add some more on future dips as I have a theory...................
I believe sat radio demand may well increase dramatically as a direct result of Congress's screwing around with terrestrial regulating. I think that current talk radio may be forced to find a new home within a year or two, maybe sooner.
If this goes as I believe it will, sat radio may become nearly as necessary as a cellphone or cable.That is my conclusion, based on recent elections and statements made by Pelosi. They are going to destroy talk radio and cause a move to the less regulated sat radio and add dramatically to the customer base.
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a0...
I would love nothing more than to see a certain Republican talk show host move to SATRAD along with all his listeners not yet subs to SATRAD! I know he doesn't want to make the move. Or at least that is his public stance.
Interesting point you make on the terrestrial prognosis. You may well be right on this going forward. The winds of change are blowing in the direction of Terrestrial Radio, and the regulation is going to be hard to stomach for them. Could be a windfall for SatRad.
Long SiriusXM
Specifically :
5) Reverse split with the Cancellation or Reduction of Authorized
shares to be released
This is a pipe dream my friend. I am not a pessimist but you really set the bar high on this one. I am gonna save the link to this one and give you credit for calling it first, if Mel recends the offering. Mel needed the shares as a mechanism to generate income. Reduction of of authorized shares would generate a pop, but I doubt Mel will give up this power card! I agree with you about what sets the price. Prices right now are more about emotion than logic .
On Feb 15 04:20 PM The Original JB wrote:
> WOW....
> You go away and spend a little time with your wife and you guys manage
> to write War and peace.
>
>
> Anyway, a few thoughts
>
> On BK filings-
> The amount of time required for a filing to be processed, let alone
> be addressed, indicated the FEB DEBT IS NOT THE REASON. The COH that
> Sirius has would be required by A Judge to settle debt before filing.
> Statements last year by Mel indicated that a COH number would cover
> the Feb Debt. To ensure survival of the parent company XM holdings
> files for Bankruptcy. The FCC license and subs still belong to the
> parent company. The Sats, repeators, Office buildings and equipment
> of XM holdings would most likely exceed the Debt. Any Accountant
> in their right mind would not lend money without an asset to secure
> in the event of BK. The disclaimer in the financial statements indicated
> that the parent is not responsible for the subsidary debt, and visa
> versa. These facts make the BK being a XM holding only issue. With
> the potential of Liberty being the white knight to rescue Sirius
> from the debts problems, nuff said.
>
> On Share price-
> The current price is what it is!! The merger changed the price from
> $3 to $1.50 practically overnight. Mr. Market determines the price.
> Mr. Market is a conglomeration of many corporations, investment houses,
> and common investors. What you or I individually believe the price
> to be, is moot. After the merger, credit conditions, upcoming Dilution,
> and the release of the Ernst & Young brought about the $1.50
> to $1.00 drop. Slower than predicted Domestic Auto sales, and upcoming
> Debt with no announcements, slammed this stock to BK price levels
> of .05.
>
> Futures-
> Don't use reverse logic to reverse the stock price.
> Consider the following
> 1) TARP funds were not used to bailout this company. GM, Ford, AIG,
> BAC , and others are going to have their hands full with regulations
> laid out by a bunch of people (lawmakers) than can't balance their
> own debt. The constraints laid out by Liberty has to be much less
> invasive.
>
> 2) Little pressure from debt in 2010 ( will find out exactly how
> much in 1Q statement)
>
> 3) Domestic Auto sales increasing from 2009 levels of 8.5 million
> (maybe 9 million) will make saturation rate an impact on share price.
>
>
> 4) Transfer of assets for Debt reduction. (there is currently too
> many SATs in orbit..ditch 'em) Scheduled Loral SAT for launch could
> be retrofit or set-up for dual use with Liberty.
>
> 5) Reverse split with the Cancellation or Reduction of Authorized
> shares to be released.
>
>
> Any of the above conditions could contribute to a 15%+ gain in share
> price. The most significant development would be the fifth item.
> without the fifth item, a SP of more than .50 would be very optimistic.
Rush Limbaugh just got a huge contract, so I don't think he is going anywhere soon. But stranger things have happened....so who is to say. If Rush came to Sirius it would be bigger than Howard, but it would also cost as much too.
Long SiriusXM
However, he just signed another longterm contract, but I imagine there is a contractual out in the paperwork, He won't have any other options but retirement when this goes down. And, there are many others who will likely precede him.
What will occur in the terrestrial talk radio format is that the regulations will force them to carry shows that will be dead air losses for every minute they air shows by Rush and others. This has a history, as it has happened before. Air america proved it again recently. We know the results and pay radio is the only way out for the talkers and the AM terrestrials will merge/fold and/or return to music formats. It's a simple financial decision.
I don't yet have a siri subscription, But plan to get one as a birthday present for myself next month.
On Feb 15 04:36 PM asm61064 wrote:
> wirestripper,
>
> I would love nothing more than to see a certain Republican talk show
> host move to SATRAD along with all his listeners not yet subs to
> SATRAD! I know he doesn't want to make the move. Or at least that
> is his public stance.
If he is forced off the terrestrial air due to circumstances( and he will be if they have their way), I will be jumping with joy....not because he is off the air with terr radio.....but because it would mean he was coming to SIRI and would increase subs even more. IMO he'd be worth every penny of his contract!
I am already a life sub to XM. It came with a trial sub in my car....and since I was traveling to the tune of 1000 miles or more a week at the time...I got hooked. Still have in my car and listen on my PC. Waiting for the right device to purchase so I can enjoy it anywhere!
> stating possible bk tuesday.
investor.sirius.com/re...
"The exchange of 10% Convertible Senior Notes due 2009 for new Senior Secured Notes is part of a larger restructuring effort. The Company is in discussions with others with respect to transactions that could refinance some of its and its subsidiaries' indebtedness. These transactions may not be successfully consummated. If these transactions are not consummated, it may be forced to file for bankruptcy protection as early as February 17, 2009."
On Feb 15 01:00 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> I did some research on the media coverage of Sirius since Mon. of
> last week.
>
> Ready to worry less about Tuesday.
>
> 72 articles were the main theme was Sirius. These articles used 2
> things to base them off of.
> 1. Insiders sources close to the deal, these sources were from the
> WSJ only.
> 2. Press release from Sirius(which I still have never read or seen,
> stating possible bk tuesday.
> 72 articles and about 25 more mentioning Sirius in them.
> Since S & P news and NY Post article and the debt sale in Dec.......
>
> 0 from the main stream media. All sources from the 72 has yet to
> comment since.
> ANYONE HERE still want to debate with me that the media in unbiased
> and FOR THE COMMON investor....
>
> Ill be here waiting....
>
> So the MSM went from 20 a day(unheard of by the way) to zero. Do
> you really think if there was ANY negative angle to those three news
> stories you woulndt have heard something in 3 DAYS NOW.
investor.sirius.com/
Not counting on it! Just daydreaming of the possibilities.
Assuming that, if in fact, Liberty provides a bridge loan covering the Feb debt. (1) How long/what price do you think the SP will carry forward momentum before the WSJ, the other 75 copy cat writers, Cramer, and the other bashers begin to start the next downturn with agruements like May debt, and Libety taking control and screwing over the CS, etc. (2) If they do begin to control a downturn, do you think it will be as significant as the one leading up to the Feb debt? I truley appreciate all of the insight from all of you. I have learned at least one thing from all of this...If I lose everything, I can always become an investment writer. All you need to do is Parrot the WSJ. LOL! Thanks again.
Rush never did operate under it as it was long gone.
But now it is coming back with a vengence and many years of democrat anger for a payback. At the time it was last in force, it destroyed any sort of opinion radio. It is all based on the so called "best interests of the public airwaves".
Pay radio, in any form will defeat it.
Inclusion of TV into the mix, or the internet will also put a burr under the saddle of any attempt to reinstate it,
There is a major political fight coming soon.
On Feb 15 05:06 PM 163888 wrote:
> asm61064, I would not count on that the worst that would have to
> happen is that the radio stations would have to put on a Liberial
> talk show for the same amount of time. Rush has servived the last
> time they tried this and will most likely make it again without having
> to come to satellite radio. (Not that I would not want it to, it
> just wont happen any time soon as someone else said.)
On Feb 15 05:12 PM Los Tiburones wrote:
> Sorry, newbie ...
>
> investor.sirius.com/
I must admit that my wife also threatened me with a divorce......LOL!
On Feb 15 04:59 PM 163888 wrote:
> cos1000, there was one thing that I was thinking about it has to
> deal with the total COH. now while we know the total was 360 as of
> the 3rd quarter. I believe if it were broken down 120 million is
> really SIRI side and 240 is on the XMSR side. Now if we break it
> down to that and they really cant inter mix the COH then SIRI would
> not have the COH to pay its 175 million due in Feb. Now while I had
> thought that once they merged they could combine that COH, after
> hearing the talk of filing seperately and assets and all I maybe
> wrong and XMSRs COH cant be used for SIRI debts. I dont know, maybe
> I am over thinking this piece of crap.
On Feb 15 03:23 PM 163888 wrote:
> Sirus Road Kill, I dont think alot of dilution will be part of this
> deal. ThaI will say it again go back and reread the NY Post article
> It says "bridge loan". there would be very little dilution from a
> brige loan. (of course if the article it true) Now will there be
> fees for it yes will they pay some in shares or cash I dont know.
> I just dont see a massive dilution to the stock from a brige loan.
> Once again a bridge loan is not exchanging shares for stock.
Its saying we cant pay the debt with COH, if we dont get a loan, were screwed.
IMO,it was the demise of the fairness doctrine that alowed talk radio to begin to prosper and it literally saved the AM radio band from extinction.
Rush will tell you it did as there were less than 1500 stations left when he started, and he alone is responsible for the thousands of stations that were resurrected from the dumpster.
"Possible"
Semantics.
On Feb 15 05:30 PM cos1000 wrote:
> I posted this earlier today above, its not a press release of a Tuesday
> BK, its a press release of restructuring 172M of Dec 09 debt, with
> filing BK possible if all restructuring is not completed by Tuesday
> the 17th.
On Feb 15 05:29 PM wirestripper wrote:
> The history of what is now called the fairness doctrine goes allthe
> way back to 1940 and it was called the mayflower doctrine under Roosevelt..
> It became the fairness doctrine in the late 60s and was killed during
> the Reagan administration, which predates Rush.
>
> Rush never did operate under it as it was long gone.
>
On Feb 15 05:43 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> That was mainly my point...Its not like Sirius made a press release
> to announce possible bk...
> Its saying we cant pay the debt with COH, if we dont get a loan,
> were screwed.
This is the reason Egan made his move. The insertion of the disclaimer came after the fact and not before so it was moot and not worthy of the press it recieved, in my opinion and some others.
On Feb 15 05:48 PM Los Tiburones wrote:
> Correct, was just refering to; "2. Press release from Sirius(which
> I still have never read or seen, stating possible bk tuesday." <br/>
>
> "Possible"
>
> Semantics.
I was in the radio businesss at a FM in Florida during that entire episode so I recall it pretty well. I may be off a month or two.
On Feb 15 05:52 PM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi, Rush Limbaugh show first aired in Aug 1988. RR was Pres till
> Jan 1989
On Feb 15 06:02 PM wirestripper wrote:
> By the time Rush went into syndication and even before he was in
> Sacremento, the doctrine was history under the Fowler FCC. In fact,
> in 1988 they tried to resurrect it as a result of Rush.
>
> I was in the radio businesss at a FM in Florida during that entire
> episode so I recall it pretty well. I may be off a month or two.
>
You opened up a can of old memories back when I was in radio.
I recall vividly a couple of geeky dudes coming to the station selling a new fangled computer......
It had a funny name......APPLE..........
Yes. It was the two founders. I think that was 1976 or 77.
Not even a Sirius article.
According to this article it is actually a bidding war for the common right now for direct control of the company. This might actually be THE deal Mel is going to make. He might be sellilng the company to the highest bidder. Can he do that without stockholder approval? Can the board decide this alone?
www.denverpost.com/tel...
I think that this is more of a bond holder and institutional holder/hedge fund battle. They want to force a deal that screws the common and get's them their money back, and Mel is using competitive interests and BK as a way to fend them off by doubling their losses or keeping the status quo thru 2009 until the market picks back up and everyone will be happy.
These distressed debt holders are in at 30cents on the dollar and secured for much more than that so they have nothing to lose by forcing a default and the media is assisting them by publishing their leaked info.
Somebody up thread said earlier that SIRI common holders have been getting screwed at every turn. I agree with that sentiment.
This is the pimple coming to a head and if we pass through this event with our shirts on, 3rd and fourth qtrs of 2009 and then 2010 will still be lined up as bogey men and more pimples.
SIRI must get enough cash to run some promotions and get sales up.They cannot do that now or even if all they accomplish is pushing the can down the road. They need a real injection of capital which is why I have been hedging on any major price moves past .32 cents.
A real joint venture with a big conglomerate will give them what they need if they can trade their wares for a substantial amount of upfront cash.
As they improve cash flow, the stock will follow, but it may not be short term and more like the latter part of 2010.
I look forward to the announcement, and I hope the deal does not screw the common. I don't think it will.
This constant fear of a bellyup or chap11 has to be put in the past for the company to move forward. On the other side of the coin, if a BK of all or part will help do that, Then it's the right thing to do.
But I think the BK is only part of the negotiating strategy that mel is using. I don't think that is what he is trying to do.
It looks like he may have dodged that bullet. I think we have a joint venture and a big one.
On Feb 15 06:41 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> IF its an outright sale it would have to be well over $1, or perhaps
> $2. If so, Im going to do literal backflips. I get all my money back,
> plus a make money too. I hope this is the case. This could be his
> deal, and he retains CEO till he retires.
Sirius XM weighs up offer
By Kenneth Li in New York
Published: February 15 2009 20:01 | Last updated: February 15 2009 20:01
Sirius XM is weighing up a financing offer from Liberty Media ahead of a deadline on Tuesday to repay $175m in bonds in a potential transaction seen as thwarting EchoStar’s attempt to take over the US satellite radio company, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
A decision from the company, which broadcasts radio programmes from Martha Stewart, Howard Stern and Major League Baseball is not expected until at least late Monday or Tuesday.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Sirius faces spectre of bankruptcy - Feb-13Merger of XM and Sirius gets go-ahead - Mar-24Sirius/XM deal passes muster against odds - Mar-25Sirius and XM in antitrust doubts - Dec-13Media and internet news - Dec-13Liberty Media, run by cable pioneer John Malone, is offering a senior secured loan that will allow Mel Karmazin, chief executive of Sirius XM, to repay $175m in bonds held by EchoStar that are due by tomorrow or risk filing for bankruptcy protection.
The offer from Liberty, which could later involve strategic partnerships between Sirius and DirecTV, the top US satellite TV operator controlled by Liberty Media, is viewed as a more friendly offer and does not contemplate a takeover of the company while leaving Mr Karmazin to run the company.
Mr Malone sees the proposed deal as a “good financial investment”, the person said.
According to a Wall Street Journal report last week, EchoStar is considering injecting $500m to take control of Sirius and Mr Ergen is now prepared to let Mr Karmazin keep his job.
The terms or the size of Liberty’s offer is not yet determined, but is expected to provide for additional capital to help buy more time to restructure other maturities due this year, the person said.
Sirius XM’s total debt now stands at about $3.25bn with $1bn due this year.
Since rebuffing an unsolicited offer from Charlie Ergen’s EchoStar, a US satellite television company, to take over Sirius XM late last year, Mr Ergen has been buying Sirius debt.
Sirius does not have enough cash to repay the $175m in bonds that are due on Tuesday.
The discussions pit three of the media’s biggest power brokers in a battle that could determine the future of the sole satellite radio company in the US.
Mr Ergen and Mr Karmazin have a difficult history. In 2004, Mr Ergen’s EchoStar sued CBS, then run by Mr Karmazin, for antitrust violations for forcing the satellite TV company to carry smaller cable networks as a condition of receiving CBS’ local TV station signals.
At one point in the dispute, which led to the blackout of CBS signal in close to 2m EchoStar subscribers that year, EchoStar urged subscribers to complain by publishing Mr Karmazin’s home phone number on screens.
Sirius XM said on Friday that it had exchanged $172.5m of its convertible notes due in December for newly issued senior secured notes due in 2011 and indicated that it would have to file for bankruptcy if it is unsuccessful in restructuring some of its debt obligations by tomorrow.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
During the shareholder meeting, Mr. Karmazin acknowledges that bankruptcy is a possibility if the company cannot reach agreement with lenders, but he says it is unlikely.
“You have to play the hand you’re dealt,” he says in the interview. “Right now, I don’t like my hand. But we’ll play it.”
On Feb 15 05:57 PM wirestripper wrote:
> I think the point is that the raft of news articles warning of bankruptcy
> were based on that one legal admonition. This bankruptcy potential
> was already well known for many trading weeks, and that little admonition
> would have been part of the 8K if they did not get refinancing or
> a bridge loan as they negotiated the debt that is coming due. <br/>
>
> This is the reason Egan made his move. The insertion of the disclaimer
> came after the fact and not before so it was moot and not worthy
> of the press it recieved, in my opinion and some others.
I note reading the story that they use the term "shareholders" rather loosely, when the stories they referenced were about debt olders, or bonds and secured stock.
I can't take it seriously................ think the writer was just trying to create drama and they did this to me once before.
On Feb 15 07:14 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> Well, its only beneficial to the stockholders if you bought under
> what the sell price is for. So I guess that would be a very selective
> question. Personal. What price could he sell to the institutions
> is more like it. They bought probably from 1.50 on down..So I would
> assume 1.50 or more would be necessary.
On Feb 15 07:30 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> I agree, its more likely just a loan with partnership, but I like
> how they are guessing the other way at least. BK was not really the
> focus. It was more like who was going to give Sirius the better deal,
> and when you have 2 deals, are always going to get a better deal
> than if you only had one offer. Not only would the second offer have
> to be better, but you can create the 1st offer to now become the
> better offer of the two. Then the ....Well you know how a bidding
> war goes...Before you know it, the deal Mel has actually looks good
> to stockholders, where before it didnt.
wirestripper 25 Comments 357519:
I must admit that my wife also threatened me with a divorce......LOL!
Trading can be brutal. Absolutely brutal.
You have to develope a thick skin, but wives don't follow that logic.
Losing hard earned money is dammed hard, but you have see it as a tool and not a property. I try that all the time, but my body via blood pressure and heart palpitations often betrays me.
Sleep well. Tuesday will be a hoot, and all sorts of things can and will happen, so don't expect too much and you will be fine. Then when you finish the day, you will meet those expectations and maybe do much better than expected or just a little worse.
On Feb 15 07:50 PM 357519 wrote:
> I feel like I'm 9 years old and it's Chrismas Eve. I'm setting out
> a plate of cookies, a glass of milk, and I'm going to bed. Here's
> praying we don't wake up to a lump of coal....or the number to a
> divorce attorney in a stocking.
>
> wirestripper 25 Comments 357519:
>
> I must admit that my wife also threatened me with a divorce......LOL!
>
If Malone is indeed giving SIRI a bridge loan as a sound investment....I get the feeling he will be involved in the future in a large way,,,,he's just looking to see if the fog clears!
On Feb 15 07:59 PM kingreecan wrote:
> Current Bid/Ask is .01/2.10... what's this suggest?
I think right now, as Mel and BOD decide on the offers (but I don't see much chance if at all, anything comes to pass with Ergen), one has to zoom out and go extreme macro...
OK. It's July 20th. This new deal would eventually consumate in 8 days, but you are Mel. You still have not pulled the trigger and have options. And one of those options is not doing the deal. Why? Credit markets have been already freezing up since the spring and the noose is getting tighter. Mel knew full well at that time if he went ahead and was even able to still pull of a miracle deal (which he would wind up doing 24 hours before the close), he would be facing major headwinds to deal with the '09 debt load--SIRI's 300M due, then exacerbated by the newly inherited approx. 750M XM. Mel knew full well that the markets were getting worse and his options would be drastically limited. Of course he didn't know Lehman would file, which was the death stroke to credit markets, but he knew it was an uphill climb. As a master salesman, of course his brightest source of confidence was his belief that since much of the debt was Bonds, he could see himself negotiating extensions...which we have now seen happen with part of the 400M Dec. And as a side note, on that transaction... that deal happened on Friday. Coincidentally the same day the news about Malone and Liberty hit the wires. The tranche of Dec 10% Notes was rolled to 2011, now as secured. Hmmm. Does anyone think those (or that) bondholder(s) would have done that deal if they weren't advised that BK wasn't going to happen? Most likely that the deal with Malone was a essentially done, only left to be approved by BOD's and paperwork drawn up this weekend? I think not.
But back to my macro missive...So Mel knew all he knew at the time of the leveraged buyout. We know the answer to this but, if you are Mel, what propels you to take and make this deal for XM? It's a known fact XM was near BK as it was. Why would you opt to take on that kind of debt of a company with one foot in the grave, rather than just waiting a few months until they file and going about trying to pick at assets in court. The answer is because he knew how messy and sloppy that process would be. And with banks and bondholders in line ahead of him, he knew good luck even getting a chance at assets. And especially the crown jewel of the deal: the 10M subs. So. Now in the present, you have to ask yourself. Does Mel believe going into a BK is the way all this should go? All his plans basically up in smoke with all assets put in jeapordy..exactly what he moved on just 6months ago to avoid? Just doesn't add up.
One thing I do think Mel did know, was that the common was going to take a huge hit. No surprise there. Esp with the bondholder hedge going into full effect. But of course we know he himself bought 2M shares @ 1.37 in August. So there has to be logic here. Again, let's review. He already knew the credit markets were drastically frozen at the time he bought his shares. We didn't know this of course because We the Peons are last to get any info of that nature (until it's too late that is), but HE knew. And facing a 1.09B due debt load beginning in less than 6 months, what would propel a man to buy 2M shares of his own common stock if he felt he would really wind up BK? AND that the SP was going to take a severe hit. To me the answer is simple. He would do it if he knew the SP would dive, but also that it would revive. IMHO, that's the only logical explanation. The nonconern he has shown shareholders speaks louder than any concern he could have offered. BK to SIRI is the LAST thing they want to happen for a multitude of reasons--esp given how new this buyout deal is. No one does that. Takes on that amount of debt in a major deal and then BK's 6 months later. No one. If anyone can find me such an instance on this level, I'd be glad to read about it. And Esp... a guy like Mel Karmazin, a titan as such, would never do it. He had to know. But of course, he also had to play his hand to get what he was after. If anyone thinks Mel K is some stupid...guess again. He's a businessman. He's a master salesman. That's what he does. It's his expertise. He understands his tools and he has used them to perfection. IMHO, you guys are about to see some major SP action in the coming days. Someone asked what my strategy is. Here's what I expect. I WILL NOT be selling on Tuesday. Period. There wil be MM fakes going on all day but the SP will finish at the highs. Then there will be another premarket jump on Wed. Depending on what that is, I may sell my entire holding then because no matter how high the SP climbs, it will have to settle back at some point. My take is that will happen on day two or three. I may sell in the AM, then wait and see what happens. This is not becuase I'm afraid the SP will crash again this severely, because if the news is what I expect, this SP will be done crashing. But it will settle on profit taking and I will try to play the dips to maximize. And MM's could leave it settled for a bit before they move it higher still to fake out traders. I'm not giving any targets but I am well documented here saying this SP could move over a buck on the right news.
Nighty night.
very well laid out and very plausible.... my only add is that at the time of the merger Mel was saving both companies from BK, neither could survive without the total subscriber base and spectrum for the future, with merger synergies to be realized.... Both of their COH positions were not enough to keep them going and BK would have been all that would have been left.... I definitely think that this will be a case study to go down in the history books regardless of how it turns out, but my money obviously is on no BK and Mel pulling this off, with a little help from a friend....
For many reasons the merger was delayed----read my previous posts and you'll understand what shareholders were able to glean during the days of merger talks.-----as well as the posts of the others from the early days of merger talk.
What I would ask of Mr. Karmazin and of Mr. Malone is that they not take the road of least resistance which would be chapter 11 voluntary Bankruptcy. While it clears debt----it also leads to lawsuits that will last for years--------and I do mean years.
I would ask that they take the high road and the road less traveled by companies seeking to avoid debts and obligations------work to make the company solvent and profitable.
There is another option that I suggest that both consider-----going directly to the Sirius/XM common shareholders. There are many creative ways to solve the paying off of debt.
1.. Provide an incentive to the Common Shareholders issue and attach rights or warrants to the commonstock to trade either with the stock or to trade separately.
2. A Sirius XM---Radio Marathon/Auction to raise dollars to cover the debt to keep the music, shows and freedom of speech flowing. There are many ways to set this up-------it's done legally all of the time for charities and non-charities such as politics.
Just a few ideas that can be made to work.
Incidentally, Tyler thanks for starting this message board----it has been a gathering point for many intelligent and knowledgeable people.
Roxieanne,
Great post..... Let them take the high road for all of our sakes...
1970s
After dropping out of college, Limbaugh moved to McKeesport, Pennsylvania. There he became a Top 40 music radio disc jockey on station WIXZ, a station that covered the Pittsburgh area. In October 1972, he broadcast over Pittsburgh station KQV under the name "Jeff Christie".
For the rest of the decade Limbaugh moved around to several radio stations before settling in Kansas City, Missouri. In 1979, after several years in music radio, he took a break from radio and accepted a position as director of promotions with the Kansas City Royals baseball team.[4] Retired Kansas City Royals star George Brett is one of his best friends.[9]
1980s
In 1984, Limbaugh returned to radio as a talk show host at KFBK in Sacramento, California, where he replaced Morton Downey, Jr.[4] The repeal of the Fairness Doctrine — which had required that stations provide free air time for responses to any controversial opinions that were broadcast — by the FCC in 1987 meant stations could broadcast editorial commentary without having to present opposing views. Daniel Henninger wrote, in a Wall Street Journal editorial, "Ronald Reagan tore down this wall (the Fairness Doctrine) in 1987...and Rush Limbaugh was the first man to proclaim himself liberated from the East Germany of liberal media domination." [10]
On August 1, 1988, after achieving success in Sacramento and drawing the attention of a former president of ABC Radio, Edward F. McLaughlin, Limbaugh moved to New York City and began his national radio show. His show debuted just weeks after the Democratic National Convention, and just weeks before the Republican National Convention. Limbaugh's radio home in New York City was the talk-format station WABC, 770 AM, and continues to this day as his flagship station.[4]
1990s
The program gained in popularity and moved to stations with larger audiences eventually growing to over 650 radio stations nationwide. When the Republican Party won control of Congress in 1994, one of the first acts by many freshmen (calling themselves the "Dittohead Caucus") was to award Limbaugh the title of "honorary member of Congress" in recognition of his support of their efforts during this period.[11]
Humor columnist and journalist Lewis Grossberger acknowledged that Limbaugh had "more listeners than any other talk show host" and described Limbaugh's style as "bouncing between earnest lecturer and political vaudevillian".[12]
wirestripper, So as Rush has said many times he not only made a living during the Fairness Doctrine he thrived through it building his listenership the whole way. Know your history before you try to debate me.
Now I am not going to debate if it was because of the fairness doctrine being lifted or if it was because of the huge increase in his audience that grew every year, is the reason he went national because I am unsure of that myself. What I am sure of is what Rush has stated several times on air. That he thrived during this period.
On Feb 15 09:45 PM Roxieanne wrote:
> Many on this board worked, and I do mean worked hard, without pay
> to give Mel K. and Sirius and XM support in getting the merger approved.
> Incidentally, Tyler thanks for starting this message board----it
> has been a gathering point for many intelligent and knowledgeable
> people.
I was fortunate, I started investing around the 1st of January 2009 when the stock went down. my avg purchase price is $.0953. I have purchsed close to 100,000 shares and plan to jump in first thing Tuesday and purchase some more - hopefully around the $0.10 - $0.11 mark. I have a friend who bought at over $6.00/share, $4.00/share and $0.65/share trying to get his average down. He has over $80,000 for what I have paid around $6,000 for. If only we had a crystal ball!!!!!
On Feb 15 09:42 AM mlongj wrote:
> This is the SA article we have all been waiting for!!! This is great
> news for all shareholders. A new day is dawing for the monopoly SiriusXM.
>
>
> Long Sirius XM
Its on Ergen!
PS: Thanks for 100% gain we will see on Tuesday.
"Creditors will act quickly and definitively if they perceive that management is (not) acting ... in the best interest of the estate," the paper quoted Edward Weisfelner, a partner with Brown Rudnick LLP - the law firm representing the creditor group - as saying."
Who could be behind this, Ergen? These are big egos, Ergen, Karmazin and Malone, and I suspect that this isn't much different than the OK Corral. Somebody is going to be very dead when the smoke clears!
like that means anything.
Banks dont either...
So there you have, this latest news might be the breaking of the camels back for clues leading up to the actual announcement. No way Mel keeps his job through bk process, they will put in someone whos an expert at handling a balance sheet, not handling a radio station, which would mark the end of satellite radio. Mel would go down as the man who killed SATRD, and kept the NAB thriving for a few more years. I dont think he wants that.
Issues arent liberal or conservative, democratic or socialist, they are either moral or immoral, based on good intentions or bad intentions.
Cool pic...
Good add. I did remember and kind of left that out because I think as now, Mel would have had a more likely time refiing/extending w/o the new XM mountain he took on. But you're right, even though XM was more imminent, SIRI faced the same insolvency issues solo...which we wrote about way back when
As we're seeing today, creditors apparently are getting a little nervous maybe that there has ben no announcement yet...If we are to believe MSM. I think the announcemnt will be coming today...as said, the company (and the bondholder(s) that rolled the partial Dec tranche into 2011 and into secured), would not have done that if BK were anywhere near a possibilty. Why woud anyone bother to do that then file for BK?
As you say, this will be a great case study for next generation college kids. As we all know, no one bothers to merge two entities then files for BK in 6 months. Nobody. For me, BK is/has been one of Mels negotiating tools. He ain't no dummy...and he ain't no chump.
How's Jethro and Granny?
Took a closer look at Liberty's holdings, specifically, their 37% stake in Wild Blue ......which provides sattellite internet using KA -band spot beam allowing multiple re-use of the same frequency....is there possibly some sort of deal in the works involving this? I know their competitors use Ku which is what sirius has I believe.
On Feb 16 10:10 AM sl62 wrote:
> ellie_mae...
>
> How's Jethro and Granny?
Good work. You're all over it. My take is Malone gets a plethora of opps here. As we know that Liberty Entertainment is intersting cause one would assume that's largely content-driven. Many ways he could utilize SIRI/ a partnership. We're down to tick tock, tick tock.
I do not use my iPOD and listen to satellite radio only.
Are you a shareholder?...
On Feb 16 10:15 AM ellie_mae wrote:
> Dead, as Sirius should be.
>
>
> On Feb 16 10:10 AM sl62 wrote:
Thanks. Looks like Malone has much more interest than just adding SIRI in a bundle with DTV. This looks like a win win big time for both sides.
<The satellites are specifically designed for the S-Band… even more specifically, 2332.5~2345 MHz. And that portion of the S-Band is only allocated for DARS service. That limits the uses.>
On Feb 16 10:11 AM asm61064 wrote:
> relmor,
>
> Took a closer look at Liberty's holdings, specifically, their 37%
> stake in Wild Blue ......which provides sattellite internet using
> KA -band spot beam allowing multiple re-use of the same frequency....is
> there possibly some sort of deal in the works involving this? I know
> their competitors use Ku which is what sirius has I believe.
LOL. A little humor never hurts...(unless you're actually diving into the drained ceeement pond!) ouch!
No one cares if you cancelled your sub. Unless you have something to offer, cancel this screen and go away. Were not interested here in your one line comments about this stock. Take your drivel to the yahoo message board, and join your fellow bashers there.
The only dead is your opinion. I died in AH on Friday.
It amazes me how much venom he can stir up on the left hand side of the aisle. I see a few seminar posters coming here just at the very mention of his name.
I think the issue is 20million loyal listeners. This equals or exceeds SIRI/XM current subcribers! I believe that answers someones question as to why I brought the subject up.
And no, I would disagree about his thriving under tis onerous reg. He is now syndicated on hundreds of stations. Each one would be required to carry 3 hours of air america or some equally pitiful stuff. It would be akin to fingernails on a chalkboard to their listeners. Rushes show would eventually suffer do to cancellations and there is no where to go but sat.
On Feb 15 10:32 PM 163888 wrote:
> wirestripper, just so we are clear Rushes listenership was growing
> each and every year at KFBK in Sacramento for the 3 years before
> the fairness doctrine was lifted.
>
> Now I am not going to debate if it was because of the fairness doctrine
> being lifted or if it was because of the huge increase in his audience
> that grew every year, is the reason he went national because I am
> unsure of that myself. What I am sure of is what Rush has stated
> several times on air. That he thrived during this period.
On Feb 16 10:40 AM cos1000 wrote:
> Of course I was speaking metaphorically...... wouldn't want ellie_mae
> to really jump...... : )
On Feb 16 11:25 AM killerkaul wrote:
> 39646.................... speaking of pinheads................. I
> think I'd figure that percentage again if I were you.
Before the
FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20554
In the Matter of
Consolidated Request for Limited Extension
of Deadline for Establishing WCS
Compliance with Section 27.14 Substantial
Service Requirement.
)
)
) Wireless Telecommunications Bureau
) WT Docket No. 06-102
)
)
Opposition of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.
Respectfully submitted,
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC.
By: /s/ Patrick L. Donnelly
Patrick L. Donnelly,
Executive Vice President and General Counsel
I believe that document is only the precursor to what is going on now. I am still digging and will let you know what I find .....but I think we are on to a much bigger piece of news than we previously thought.
SDARS operators XM Satellite Radio Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. have requested that the FCC finalize rules that will allow them to use repeaters broadcasting at 40 kilowatts, while limiting operators in the WCS band to 2 kilowatts. The SDARS operators also have urged the FCC to limit the power output allowed in the popular unlicensed 2.4 GHz band. The SDARS proposals and comments to the FCC are decidedly self-serving and show no recognition of the importance of coexisting with operators in adjacent bands.
On Feb 16 11:54 AM asm61064 wrote:
> Anyone ever see this document or hear of it before:
>
>
> Before the
> FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION
> Washington, D.C. 20554
> In the Matter of
> Consolidated Request for Limited Extension
> of Deadline for Establishing WCS
> Compliance with Section 27.14 Substantial
> Service Requirement.
> )
> )
> ) Wireless Telecommunications Bureau
> ) WT Docket No. 06-102
> )
> )
> Opposition of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.
> Respectfully submitted,
> SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC.
> By: /s/ Patrick L. Donnelly
> Patrick L. Donnelly,
> Executive Vice President and General Counsel
An ongoing NAB(BING) issue.
NAB doesn't want them.
Sirius Users would benefit.
Not totally positive on mechanics. But i believe it goes something like this: Placement is first requested as trial basis. Then proof of substantial benefit to customers needs to be proven. If proven Terestrial repeater is ok'ed to stay. If not approved...tsk...tsk..... from the FCC (remember those during merger??)
ALSO!!
NAB does not want any locally (within repeater range) produced works to be transmitted over repeaters. Effectivly having hometown blackouts!
On Feb 16 11:54 AM asm61064 wrote:
> Anyone ever see this document or hear of it before:
>
>
> Before the
> FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION
> Washington, D.C. 20554
> In the Matter of
> Consolidated Request for Limited Extension
> of Deadline for Establishing WCS
> Compliance with Section 27.14 Substantial
> Service Requirement.
> )
> )
> ) Wireless Telecommunications Bureau
> ) WT Docket No. 06-102
> )
> )
> Opposition of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.
> Respectfully submitted,
> SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC.
> By: /s/ Patrick L. Donnelly
> Patrick L. Donnelly,
> Executive Vice President and General Counsel
I do agree with wirestripper that Rush coming to satellite radio is a point for discussion. While I dont think 20 million listners means that would translate to anywhere close to 20 subscribers. Just like Stern having 12 million listners only translated to about 2.3 million subscribers. It would still be big.
On Feb 16 12:05 PM killerkaul wrote:
> testing.
On Feb 15 09:58 AM mlongj wrote:
> Zealonsunited
>
> Anything is possible now in my opinion. However, there are still
> major challenges in the overall economy, which are being worked on.
> I think that the SP could see 1.00 by the end of the year at this
> point. If there is better news in the auto industry (which there
> should be) and the stimulus package begins flowing to the workers
> in this country quickly it could be much better. I never fail to
> remember 2.7 billion in revenue per year. This number is huge and
> will grow according to Mel. Mel has brought us through this far and
> I do not see any reason to disbelieve him now. We will increase revenue
> this year when others are struggling to break even. The debt will
> be resolved with a partner that is a powerful player in today's media
> sector. There will also be a very critical look at the contracts
> which are either in place or need to be renegotiated. After 8 months
> of agony since the merger, its all up from here IMO. But Tuesday
> should be great!!!
>
> Long SiriusXM
OK............I don't want to belabor this issue, as it was not my intention to go into the minutia regarding Rush's early career day in Mexifornia, but I think the basis of our disagreement lies with the potential effect of the "Fairness doctrine' of his future as the AM king of radio.
On that point, we will have remain in some disagreement because I believe the effects will be very detrimental to his cash flow and he has a lot of it to protect.
I know he looks far ito the future all the time, and I believe he must see what is coming if this albatross is once again instituted. As do the others at ABC and independents.
As I said,It is just a teory of mine that SIRI, should it survive and I think it will, should benifit greatly if the doctrine passes, as I outlined.
As for Rush, I don't know what he plans to do. He has a successful website with direct feeds that 24/7 listeners can access anytime. The problem would be largely in the drive time periods where he gets most of his audience. I would envision a change in his distribution to compensate for losses if the current congress puts this through and they will try.
You have to see this from the station managers perspective. Those stations with broad appeal may not be adversely affected, but there are very few left. Most are niche types with loyal followings. They will be in a bad position and forced to make dollar based decisions to retain advertisers for their ROS or run of schedule ad rates. These ads will rotate throughout the schedule and be heard anytime, any program. Advertisers are very finicky about what programs they support and this is why lib radio has failed time and time again. It's something they don't want to be associated with and if you ever listen to one of them, you will know immediately why this is.
Anyhoo................... will see.....The war for the control of the culture has begun.
You make it difficult for me to give further statments from you any credibilty when you post nonsense.
On Feb 16 05:16 AM User 356946 wrote:
> i love when pinheads throw around percentage gains and losses for
> penny stocks. siri goes from 10 cents to 13 cents and he says IT
> GOES UP 42%.
> like that means anything.
License Holders - Sirius and XM Radio
Valuation of License - Sirius and XM paid a combined $173.2 million for the two
licenses in 1997.
Band Summary and Rules Satellite radio licenses allow the holder to operate
hybrid satellite/terrestrial systems that carry national audio programming. The
licenses also permit data services over the same network.
Satellite Broadband is a data service! Anyone...........anyon...
www.boerse-frankfurt.d.......
On Feb 16 01:06 PM yomann wrote:
> Hello friendly people of the siri blogs. I have high hopes for tomorrow,
> but am unsure how high they should be. I noticed yesterday the 1
> year target on yahoo for siri was .45, then today I saw it dropped
> to .32. Later today it said .78, and now it again says .32. Does
> anyone have an opinion about why it keeps changing, or better yet,
> do you guys have a feeling about the sp in the next month? Thank
> you very much for your diligence and all your free advice!! Yo
On Feb 16 01:19 PM asm61064 wrote:
> Frequency -2,320-2,345 MHz
> License Holders - Sirius and XM Radio
> Valuation of License - Sirius and XM paid a combined $173.2 million
> for the two
> licenses in 1997.
> Band Summary and Rules Satellite radio licenses allow the holder
> to operate
> hybrid satellite/terrestrial systems that carry national audio programming.
> The
> licenses also permit data services over the same network.
>
>
>
> Satellite Broadband is a data service! Anyone...........anyon...
www.boerse-frankfurt.d...
On Feb 16 01:28 PM 163888 wrote:
> wirestripper, The original disagreement is that You think Rush would
> go to satellite radio soon after I think it would be a long time
> if at all. While I agree that it would make it more difficult for
> the terrestrial radios revenue stream. I dont think it will be worse
> then it would be if they just cut Rush out all together. For instance
> while progressive (liberial) organizations may not think Mitch Album
> is liberial enough, I do and can argue how he is. He comes on for
> 3 hours after Hannitys show in my market.
Also the same rags that refused to run the NY Post angle(who has now defended in an email the validity of his report) and the S & P removal of credit watch, and the significance of the Dec. bond movement to BK laws, has decided to pass all those angles and stories and just reprint the same creditor threat to Mel over and over today. So is there STILL anyone who thinks the media is unbiased and for your best interests...
As always...
I'll be here waiting..
Im actually getting angry now.
After this is all over, I just may have a few words for some of these dishrags.
Data is extremely loose term by the way. Data could mean ANYTHING. I think we need more information on this. Any technical savy satellite guys here? Or gals sorry ladies...Sallie Mae? Any thoughts? LOL LOL LOL
HEHEHHEHE
On Feb 16 01:31 PM cos1000 wrote:
> try this link:
> www.boerse-frankfurt.d...;ISIN=US82967N1081
Agree data is a loose term....but it tells me the allocated bandwidth is not locked down to only DARS like many of us have been told or are thinking doesn't it?
Ummm, this is a 10 cent stock and you think long term longs will be rewarded??? Denial ain't just a river in Egypt dude. You need to seek professional investing advice if you think this is anything more than a very short term day trade.
Man there is a sucker born everyday isn't there?
do you have anything to add? Didnt think so. Why dont you go away, literally no one here cares what bashers think. We only use facts not opinions. So go f*** yourself. And the horse you rode in on.
I hope your shorting, and you go broke. How much do they pay you to post? Or is that it? Hows the weather in vietnam today? Is it. 05 cents a post now? Or do you get more?
Well anyway, your an idiot, and your last days of bashering are here. Id say your have hours left before I dont have to listen to your stupid flapping mouths spewing hate anymore.
Either this post proves your..
Immoral
Lying
Bored and hateful
Stupid
Please let me know which one, Ill be here waiting. If you want to present facts in your crap spewing out your mouth, Id love to hear one.
Isn't this old news?
Heres a thought. In almost a week now this WSJ "unnamed source" has NO new information to add. Seems suspicious. Nothing. No comment to his reporter buddy after all this new news. Nothing to add. Mel leaked that rumor now we can see that obviously. These "creditors" complaining are probably Ergen, LOL LOL LOL
HEHEHEHEHE
On Feb 16 01:54 PM danny10 wrote:
> What is with the newest headlines, "Creditors take aim at CEO"?<br/>Isn't
> this old news?
>
yomann, Holy crap you really have to get a Etrade, Ameritrade, Scottrade or something. Most of those dont require any minimum and you would have only paid between 8 and 14 dollars for the trade you just made.
also, lets have some fun and assume that the malone bridge loan is the way this thing rolls out, but may debt is still unresolved. that's what the post article said. they would take the next couple months to address that as part of the plan. so feb debt handled and very strong commitment from malone to help resolve may and dec....ok....what does the stock do tomorrow based on that announcement?
13 people who are desperate in under 1 minute. This is looking better and better by the minute.
O, and so no one else risks going insane, there is no new information today, yesterday or any other time for bashers. They still go on the bk disclamier from Sirius and the bank debt due date. NOthing to worry about so far. And they are getting more and more childish.
airman, I will agree with what you said about a short squeeze. Dont count on it look as I said along time ago about after the merger (cos1000 remember) there will be no short sqeeze. First there are way to many shares out there, I mean are 270 million shares being short alot, YES. The fact is though there are 4 billion shares open for trading and when you compare that to 270 million shares it is small. Second there are going to be alot of people that bought at .05 to 13 that will sell at .28 to .30. as proof look at the volume that happened in the days the PPS was between .12 and .13, you see it was alot more then 270 million. Third The shorts that are in now for the most part are there to protect their investment. They will not get out until the converts they have are sold or the company files for bankruptcy. Now there might be some buying presure when converts are bought out but I dont think there will be a short squeeze as many may think.
And please I dont want to get into a 40 post arguement like I did the last time. Learn from your history.
Feb notes paid...
Bridge loan from Liberty..Partnership to follow...Interest only loan, no stack in shares..etc...
Then Im going to guess it close tomorrow at
.31 cents.
Bank debt resolved...
.50 cents
You forgot #5: All of the above! One thing I would like to add to the investment equation is don't discount idoits like this or the flock of sheep that follow their "chicken-little" propaganda. Opportunities arrise from the stupidity of others. Chances are these clowns will pressure the SP down again. The question is how long until they do and how much?
P.S. I do find it interesting that none of these clowns of taken you up on your challenge: )
On Feb 16 01:45 PM yomann wrote:
> thank you very much cos1000, I appreciate the link and hope that
> this willcontinue here. I am so new at this, I missed buying at
> .055 -- although I called my broker than day, he said there is a
> three day buying lag period. Also, I think I might need a new way
> to buy. When I bought at .31 -- I was charge $250 just to buy 16k
> shares -- is that right? I have an Ameriprise broker.
>
>
> On Feb 16 01:31 PM cos1000 wrote:
again, thanks to all you guys that deal in the facts and keep us grounded in reality. soon, i think we're all going to be glad we hung in there
WildBlue uses the Ka-band exclusively for both the receiving end and the return path on two satellites using VSAT technology.
Anik-F2
This Telesat Canada-owned Boeing 702 Anik-F2 satellite has a Ka-band payload designed for and leased by WildBlue. It has four spot beams for a total of 38 transponders in the Ka-band. It also has C-band and Ku-band payloads for other customers. It is located at the 111.1° W, geostationary orbit slot.
I checked my german account. Siri started at 8 cent , was at 10 cent and closed at 9,2 cent (all in Euro, rate 1,2785 ). Most shares were traded in Stuttgart, some in Frankfurt and a few in Duesseldorf, but the total was only about 900.000 .
You paid waaaaay too much for that trade. One reason why to x degree is if you used a manual broker trade (a warm body with a pulse)...those will always be higher fees. Electronic is always cheaper. My broker charges $7 plus .5% of the principal when under a buck. In that scenario 30K shares @ .30 would be $52. Broker assisted adds like $20. But suffice it to say you should change brokers if that's what they are charging.
And the 3 days he was referring to is the T+3 settlement window. It will take 3 days before you actually have secured the stock but your buy date entitles you that purchase from the actual buy. Settlement is the official transfer between parties of both the stock and cash.
On Feb 16 04:43 PM sl62 wrote:
> yomann...
>
> You paid waaaaay too much for that trade. One reason why to x degree
> is if you used a manual broker trade (a warm body with a pulse)...those
> will always be higher fees. Electronic is always cheaper. My broker
> charges $7 plus .5% of the principal when under a buck. In that scenario
> 30K shares @ .30 would be $52. Broker assisted adds like $20. But
> suffice it to say you should change brokers if that's what they are
> charging.
>
> And the 3 days he was referring to is the T+3 settlement window.
> It will take 3 days before you actually have secured the stock but
> your buy date entitles you that purchase from the actual buy. Settlement
> is the official transfer between parties of both the stock and cash.
1. MSM killed the story last few days. There was just one straggler from an NBC news affiliate yesterday which rehashed old news.
2. MSM changed tacks to bondholder's potential suit if BK. I just checked and there are now 4 or 5 new posts on the same topic since I left earlier. What else can they do? It's that or they get nothing more out of this.
3. Nothing has leaked out by now. If Mel and BOD's decided no go, that decision would have been made Saturday/yesterday the latest. They would want to get that on the wires as far away from Tuesday trading as possible. Not that it would mitigate much, but that's just a Street mentality.
No, every minute that goes by is in our favor. We'll still remain calm. My guess is they are finishing paperwork and SEC filings. And maybe still negotiating May bank details (If Malone wasn't also absorbing any May). This info will hit the wires late tonight or obviously BMO tomorrow. Looking good dudes.