Berkshire Testing November Lows - Already Down 17% YTD

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway saw its holdings fall by 25% in the fourth quarter based on the recent release of its 13-F. Berkshire Hathaway's Class A (BRK.A) shares were down $4,000 today to close right at $80,000. As shown in the first chart below, the stock is getting close to testing its November low of $77,500. For the year, BRK.A is already down 17.2%, which is about 450 basis points worse than the S&P 500. Shares will face a key test of support if they decline just a little bit more. If this support holds, BRK.A could make a nice reversal. But if it breaks, look out below.

click to enlarge

Comments

[morph366:]

One definition of a depression might be an environment where there are no more smart investors just poorer investors

Feb 19 07:34 AM

[CautiousInv...:]

Buffet has met his challenge with this market.

Feb 19 07:43 AM

[User 317357:]

IS Buffet really the largest day trader on the market?

Feb 19 07:51 AM

[investor88:]

A black swan scenario can wreak havoc on any strategy including buy and hold forever Buffet style.

Are we in a black swan event? Maybe, Dow 3k-6k a possible zone.

Feb 19 07:51 AM

[campo:]

Explain "Black Swan"

Feb 19 11:12 AM

[PROXIMO:]

When this thing finishes playing out, Buffett's legendary status will have been reduced to a footnote.

Feb 19 11:44 AM

[ATLBob:]

"A Black Swan event: refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations." (from Wikipedia)

(The following is from "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable", By NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB)

"A Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.

Second, it carries an extreme impact.

Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. "

Feb 19 12:02 PM

[raytayzmd:]

..."But if it breaks, look out below."???...is this supposed to be the wisdom that I am to derive from this article?...and exactly how many yachts do your customers own?

Feb 19 12:36 PM

[captkirk:]

lets see i buy a piece of paper in mid october. for $150 thousand and 4 months later it hits a interday low of $78thousand looks like my ass is loosing $18.thousand a month from the greatest investment mind cence king solomon me thinks warren should go up to bernies pent house and get some pointers

Feb 19 03:08 PM

[sr9web:]

A rare, unusual event - eg: most swans are white, so black ones are rare and unexpected


On Feb 19 11:12 AM campo wrote:

> Explain "Black Swan"

Feb 20 12:27 AM