The Sirius Price of Liberty 216 comments
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As a writer with a huge ego, I want the world to put me on a pedestal for publishing the only story out of the thousands written that made the claim that Sirius XM (SIRI) had avoided chapter 11, a full 3 days before it was made official. As an investor, I want to jump for joy that Sirius XM avoided bankruptcy. I want to join in the celebration of the more than 50% gain in the stock price, but I cannot.
Like many, I am a bit disappointed that SIRI shares did not respond better than they did due to its debt restructuring. I believe that SIRI would be fairly valued at 1.40 to 1.50 a share, yet that is not my immediate concern as I believe it will get there soon enough. Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad a deal was struck but I’m at a loss as to why it needed to be.
No, my problem lies in the deal itself. To begin with, Sirius XM claimed to have nearly 400 million dollars in cash as of its last SEC filing. I’m confused as to the reason the company felt a need to secure a deal to meet its February 2009 debt obligation of only 172 million dollars in the first place. Has the cash burn increased so dramatically as to have wiped out the company’s cash reserves? That, I suppose, will be answered at the next quarterly report.
The thought that I am stuck on, however, lies in the price that Liberty (LINTA) paid to acquire so much of Sirius XM. Just a few months ago, Sirius, in a merger of equals, bought XM for 4.6 billion dollars. That figure does not include the attorney fees, fines nor the general loss of productivity that occurred while the FCC battle went on.
Having doubled the size of the company at such a high cost, to turn around and sell 40% of the combined company for a minuscule 530 million dollars does not sit well with me. This great deal for Liberty begs the question; if 40% of the company is worth 530 million, is the company as a whole only worth 1.2 billion now? Of course not. It occurs to me that without that 4.6 billion dollar mistake, the company would have not only survived, but thrived.
Position: Long Sirius XM
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This article has 216 comments:
Very good and interesting points. Keep it real!
If you really want to know what has gone on with this company.....the truth, I suggest you do the following:
SEC Freedom of information act request:
There is no form to file. Just send a written request to the FOIA office by e-mail (foiapa@sec.gov), fax (202-772-9337), or mail (100 F Street NE, Mail Stop 5100, Washington, DC 20549). Be sure to state your name, address, and telephone number on your request. You need not say why you want the records. Please limit a request to one subject. If records are required on more than one subject, i.e., a company or individual, please submit a request for each subject. If a request contains multiple subjects, it will be divided into multiple requests.
MEL K you can KISS MY ARSE
Hi, Does UBS being in trouble impact us? I think they hold some debt and also are "advisors" to Sirius
Appreciate your and the others analysis and time you have put into this. You have been right on with your trading strategy since you stopped averaging down a few months back. I, on the other hand, have watched and held as each significant pop evaporated in a couple of days. I did manage to pick up 25k at .06 the other day and brought my average down to where a buyout would make me some money. I'm going to start using your strategy though as that seems to be the best way to navigate the next couple months. Question is, we have earning coming up next week. What is your opinion on SP going into the CC and coming out of the CC. I'd really like to start to accumulate some "free" shares, but don't want catch the wrong wave and end up getting slammed into the reef.
Appreciate "most" everyone's input here as well. Great info and analysis...that hasn't done crap in the way of a decent SP, but has helped to keep me an others totally out of the dark.
On Feb 19 12:03 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Shure 46,
> I agree that it is hard to be an optimist, but with the unreliable
> main stream media out their, I try and stay with the facts as reported
> to the SEC through filings. The shakeout is for real and I am just
> trying to accumulated shares on "News Pops" down here. I am obviously
> in till the end ..... I posted this as my reality on Tyler's other
> article.
>
> All I know is this company as of Tuesday is now in a position to
> stave off BK. The Feb 09 is done, and with no other offers Malone
> will buy the UBS $100M Bank Debt, and Mel did not us any COH to take
> the Feb 09 debt out. This means he has the COH to take out the May
> 09, remaining $250M held by the banks. What Mel and John Malone set
> up as of Tuesday is a block to forcing the company into BK due to
> Feb or May 09 debt. The payments to MLB should be able to be made
> if properly accrued for $60M, if not the initial $150M to XM can
> be used for this and other operational costs during this period.
> So although nothing is in stone yet, the framework is there and that
> has me sleeping better at night. Eventually everyone out there following
> the company, and there are not many who do in detail, will get it
> right and the SP will move organically in the right direction. If
> Ergen buys us out for $1.50 then fine, the nightmare for me will
> be over and I will move on to other things, shippers, solar / renewable
> co's , infrastructure, to name a few. There will be life after this
> and opportunities will abound.
Amen to that! Nothing ventured nothing gained.
I feel like I got punched in the gut...
biz.yahoo.com/prnews/0...
The entire wall street plays the game..
NASDAQ knows there ploy was bs, and they dont give a rats ass. Exception...173 million needed for months, and they have COH. And they sold the company for loans. WOW. Worst deal in CEO history. Easily.
I wouldn't be too worried about that yet..there is an opt out clause for a reason.
How does anyone still feel there will be a buyout offer for the common? Never. Not needed. If they take it private, then there will be. But that wont be for years. They dont need to transfer ownership and give a penny. Only way this pig gets wings is if startling news breaks out, and the shorts need a few seconds to fix the problem(SP going up is a problem to them).
Still holding out hope that this is all for institutions to buy cheap, and transfer shares from the masses to them. Wont get my shares. Im holding till this all plays out.
Good luck to everyone, were going to need it. Now bordering on a mircacle need to get this past $1 now.
O no this is it. This is the deal. We got sold out again for the future.
Is the NASDAQ trading platform usually used by retailers? What about ARCO? Im guessing those two are almost mainly retail buyers right?
On Feb 19 01:43 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> Cos1000 did you see that bs right there. Takedown baby!!! Never goes
> up a half cent in 3 seconds, but it can go down that much in 3 seconds..Takes
> an hour to get back...Like pushing a boulder uphile, like that Prometheus
> guy...Just rolls right back down...
On Feb 19 01:52 PM Blue23 wrote:
> I'm just going to quit watching. They are not going to sucker me
> into selling. I am just going to quit watching and make my little
> chunk of SIRI off limits and as expensive as possible for whoever
> to purchase...when they do eventually. My little victory in this
> godforsaken war.
Not many .13 are giving up and moving to .14...
And to be honest...
I dont blame them...
I wanted to do more this my research, but I ran out of awake power last night. But i think my point is clear. You can rationalize SP movements till your blue in the face, but when Cramer's team in involved, you just dont know whats really going on. NOthing in this system is designed to help the common investor. No instiutional reports on time. No SI on time. 4 legal communications a year from your company. Voting rules suspended because your CEO isnt running the company for you, hes running it for him. Etc...
Media drills you with bs information, till you start doubting yourself. They know they can affect EVERYONE. I know its happening and it still works on me. Why didnt i buy more at .05 cents, even though I knew BK was impossible? Because they put just enough fear into me to not pour it all in at that price, coudlnt risk it..What happens if im wrong...Media says i am...Etc...Works on your subconcious. I could have retired on what I could have pumped in at .05 cents and sold at .24 cents. But I didnt, and I bought less than I wanted too. Works that way too. Makes buy ins smaller, etc...Makes you sell faster...Even we are talking about bailing the first light over .20 cents now...Well not all shares but some. Thats what they want us to do, they won. Or the possiblity is still there since cramer is involved, is that it is a total take down, and we might never get back to reasonable prices. Dont know, dont think so, but the doubt is there...Crippling my abilities to think rationally.
This stock pretty much followed the cycle from Dec to 5 Feb
1. When is the quarterly CC? I have heard Monday but also saw what seemed like a press release from Sirius that said Feb 25th(Wed). Cant find it anymore. Which is it? Where can I see this info from a company source? Ok more than 1 question imbedded here:)
2. With this amazingly low trading cycle is bad news (other than BK) priced into the CC? can it go lower than .10-11 on any conceivable news other than BK? As all of you I am bewildered. I wasnt expecting 1.00 much less .40 till after CC anyway. I guessed .20-25 with maybe topping .30 on decent CC.
Would Mel voodoo dolls sell?
Mel sells the company for a box of cheerios..
Quote...I was hungry...Didnt think the stockholders would mind, and we were on the verge of BKcy...
Mel cant stand before the stockholders and convince them the company is worht 1.2 billion dollars. They would throw pencils at them, sticking them in his head...
go to the bottom of the page and click on Investor Relations, then click on Press Releases, all.
I don't think you .20 - .30 is unreasonable on a good call, but without any news we could go to .10 or .11. Who knows?
On Feb 19 02:29 PM noppes wrote:
> 2 questions.
>
> 1. When is the quarterly CC? I have heard Monday but also saw what
> seemed like a press release from Sirius that said Feb 25th(Wed).
> Cant find it anymore. Which is it? Where can I see this info from
> a company source? Ok more than 1 question imbedded here:)
>
> 2. With this amazingly low trading cycle is bad news (other than
> BK) priced into the CC? can it go lower than .10-11 on any conceivable
> news other than BK? As all of you I am bewildered. I wasnt expecting
> 1.00 much less .40 till after CC anyway. I guessed .20-25 with maybe
> topping .30 on decent CC.
Hard to run a company when "OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO" is your starting point.
He's crazy He's crazy wait till he changes to "Lucky Charms"
On Feb 19 02:36 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> Latest news!!!
> Mel sells the company for a box of cheerios..
> Quote...I was hungry...Didnt think the stockholders would mind, and
> we were on the verge of BKcy...
> Mel cant stand before the stockholders and convince them the company
> is worht 1.2 billion dollars. They would throw pencils at them, sticking
> them in his head...
Just so you realize the power they have...
Im 100 percetn convinced that they could take apple to $1 in one day. They have to justify it only....
Thats it...
Doesnt matter how many buyers, they will issue phantom shares, and use other shares sold(panic selling, going down, must be a reason, to fill the rest.) Timing takedowns, how you allocate blocks of shares..etc..
APPLe can be $1 by close if they really want to take it there.
And i Honestly and truely believe this.
Yes, hes not crazy...I wish it were that simple...
I wish he was crazy, make more sense to me...
Until we hear there plans then I will go with geniously clever until otherwise...Then the name calling begins...
All I know is if they don't do the right thing somewhere along the way, I am going to NY and speak to those suits MYSELF! I may live in NC now....but I am a Brooklyn boy and I know how to swing a baseball bat!
"Tell em what they'll win Johnny"
I was thinking that the CC would send us slowly up now I am not being that optimistic .
The way to make some money is to trade these pop/dips but i just dont have that in me. Long term we will be ok(looking less to be great though) ... if our hearts survive it.
On Feb 19 03:15 PM noppes wrote:
.>
> The way to make some money is to trade these pop/dips but i just
> dont have that in me. Long term we will be ok(looking less to be
> great though) ... if our hearts survive it.
Someone a while back alluded to a previous episode in MK's career where he allegedly made moves that drove down his company's stock before arranging the sale of the company, so there is reason to observe the ceo's behavior and history closely. I don't remember the name of the company and I have no firm opinion on the merits of the accusation, but it's been made before on these blogs.
The total lack of any kind of effort to shore up the value of the company, such as advertising during the Holiday 2008 period and putting up store kiosks as XM did successfully in the prior holiday period, must give one pause; the drop in this company's share price seems to be of no concern to management, rather it seems to fit some kind of management plan. Anybody who retorts that MK has a lot personally invested in shares should ask whether that investment is a substantial part of the ceo's personal assets or is for him a moderate amount that can be sacrified for show as part of some larger plan...
I guess my point is that the trading is very irrational right now. I might think I could make some money on trades,I could make my position worse, I just got my head above water in the past few weeks ... So, since I understand it is irrational right now I am going to just hang out till I get a bead.
On Feb 19 03:39 PM noppes wrote:
> mogami,
>
> I guess my point is that the trading is very irrational right now.
> I might think I could make some money on trades,I could make my position
> worse, I just got my head above water in the past few weeks ... So,
> since I understand it is irrational right now I am going to just
> hang out till I get a bead.
On Feb 19 02:57 PM noppes wrote:
> Cos I went to th investor site and still do not see anything about
> the actual date of CC. I guess I am missing it
On Feb 19 03:25 PM Malkiel wrote:
> It seems clear that a reverse split will have to happen to bring
> the share values back above $1 in order to stave off delisting, at
> which time shorts will manipulate the price back down, so the stock
> had no pop because smart buyers are waiting for the split and the
> five-finger discounting (or are shorts).
>
> Someone a while back alluded to a previous episode in MK's career
> where he allegedly made moves that drove down his company's stock
> before arranging the sale of the company, so there is reason to observe
> the ceo's behavior and history closely. I don't remember the name
> of the company and I have no firm opinion on the merits of the accusation,
> but it's been made before on these blogs.
>
> The total lack of any kind of effort to shore up the value of the
> company, such as advertising during the Holiday 2008 period and putting
> up store kiosks as XM did successfully in the prior holiday period,
> must give one pause; the drop in this company's share price seems
> to be of no concern to management, rather it seems to fit some kind
> of management plan. Anybody who retorts that MK has a lot personally
> invested in shares should ask whether that investment is a substantial
> part of the ceo's personal assets or is for him a moderate amount
> that can be sacrified for show as part of some larger plan...
On Feb 19 04:07 PM cos1000 wrote:
> There is nothing that is clear here........ and why bother repeating
> blather that you've heard on blogs if its unsubstantiated.... go
> somewhere else with your smear campaign or bring facts to back up
> your BS. We are way to far down the road with company to listen to
> more drither from those without the facts.....
Unless.......Killer check your dog. I think he has grown used to running in the wrong direction. Tell him to turn around and chase the pretty rabbit.
On Feb 19 04:19 PM boston 1 wrote:
> The Dow downward movement usually meant Sirius up, however the last
> two days this has not been the case.
THE REAL TORTURE CHAMBER KING!!!
While the NASDAQ rules generally require shareholder approval prior to the issuance of securities that are convertible into more than 20% of the outstanding shares of a listed company, the Company is relying on an exception in cases when the delay in securing shareholder approval would seriously jeopardize the financial viability of the enterprise. The Company's Audit Committee has approved the use of this exception.
On Feb 19 04:34 PM canis major wrote:
> breaking news!!!!! the CIA decieded that instead of water bording
> suspected al queda members they thought that they would get better
> info just making them be long sirius-xm,
> THE REAL TORTURE CHAMBER KING!!!
man look at me, i'm sure becoming a cynical, parinoid bastard eh?
only way out of this mess is performance...that's it. question is...is mel really trying to lift the company or keep it down to take it private. again...we'll never know and it doesn't matter. the way i see it you hang in there for the long run....buy/sell in pops and drops to improve position...or dump it all after Q4 pop. like most of you guys, i'm not selling anytime soon. i do think this company has value and incredible potential..and some one...some day...is going to bring it to a better place.
last comment: I'll bet my 300,000 shares right now that we settle back to .10 - .11 base by end of this week. if I have some balls I'll jump back in for q4...
man the frustration is just incredible. i dont even know if my comments have any value or make any sense...just burning off some steam...thanks for listening.
I wish Obama would quit being such an idiot with these crazy policies. Gosh, I swear, not a single Democrat is worth his salt and only about 10% of the Republicans are. It's beyond scary.
On Feb 19 04:34 PM canis major wrote:
> breaking news!!!!! the CIA decieded that instead of water bording
> suspected al queda members they thought that they would get better
> info just making them be long sirius-xm,
> THE REAL TORTURE CHAMBER KING!!!
A bottle labelled 'tylenol' may in fact contain 'aspirin'. Labels can be
deceptive, but many think in terms of "TEAM SPORTS".
You would think Sirius, or XM would have hired somebody like
Rush Limbaugh, rather than Howard Stern. Stern is a poor role
model for males of any age. Sirius could also have hired Obama's
former pastor, Jeremiah Wright. XM could have offered a channel
offering music by female artists only. But "they" do not want to do
these things. For the Conspiracy which goes by many names, is
Femi-nazism. They divide the males into two classes: Alpha and
Beta, and expect both these classes to serve females. It is why
the expression, "He must keep his ex wife in the lifestyle she has
become accustomed to" was created. They do not want males to
have the legal right (not to be confused with a moral right) to decide
who they want to take care of. Pointing a gun at somebody and
asking them to do what "they" think is right, is coercion, it is slavery,
and not servitude, not love. This word 'slave' only appears once in
the Bible (KJV). Moreover, it is robbery (thievery) when you point
a gun at somebody and say, Give me spousal support...This is what
females do, using 'alpha males', "police officers".
Most of the subscribers of XM Sirius are male. "They" want control
of this media company. And so the DOJ took their time, delaying the
merger between XM and Sirius. XM should have stayed stand alone.
By their financials, it was obvious that the most they would save in
terms of synergies would be half a billion, but they were claiming savings
in the billions. Lawyers, CEOs, Judges, Politicians, serve the whore of
BAbylon, answering to dominatrixes, living in the fear of satan.
And then Sirius, instead of going to Ford, and saying for $1 billion you
get to keep the royalty revenue stream for five years, went to Liberty
Media, and sold the company to them for $500 million. For $500
million, Liberty gets 40% of the company. How difficult is it to acquire
another 11%? For the next three years, apparently they are not
allowed to own more than 50%. So, will they not buy 9% using open
market purchases? Once a company owns 51%, it is not difficult to
acquire the other 49%. Should not Karmazin go to jail for defrauding
shareholders? Why did they put Bernie Ebbers behind bars, and not
Mel Karmazin? World Com is now called Verizon. And Verizon pays out
$3 billion a year to their shareholders, in DIVIDEND INCOME. Sirius
could have sold this company to Verizon, who could then have offered
their customers a quadruple play.
your logic is absurd! Perhaps you should get some therapy because your assertions are rediculous. It is folks like yourself that give the Christian faith a really bad name. Is this comment a financial one or a theological one? Kinda mixed up the two???
Long SiriusXM
To the rest, OMG if I here the possibility of bankruptcy is still out there I am going to puke. Simple math, there was just over 1 billion in debt to deal with in 2009. First take 176 million of Feb converts they took out using dilution then take another 175 million that was extended that adds up to just over 300 million now take the 500 million (malone loan) that really gos to debt (30 million for fees) that leaves a total of just over 200 million for 2009 or the 250 due in May that JP morgan ownes. Now is there anyone going to tell me that could not be extended or paid in COH, come on get real. Now while I still think the deal stunk It does take any possibility of bankruptcy off the table. I would not even bother reading that publisher again if they even mention that again.
Pj568, they dont need that much COH to take care of that. That also maybe why they are required to have the 75 million minimum to stay within their debters agreements.
killerkaul, I dont know what is going on but, when I was kicked off, even when I tried to use a new name I still could not sign back on. It took a several weeks and I think some well placed Emails/post from you guys to finally get me back. Feb 19 05:31 PM |Report abuse| Link | Reply +10 163888 1225 Comments cos1000, I would not put to much into that 1.37 offer made by Charles. There has never been any news reported on it it is just rumor. Second if that was a offer then Charles knew all he had to do is go public with it and shareholders would have demanded a vote. That would not be the first time someone has done that to get a vote on a matter such as that. Lets face it it was always something I was afraid of happening because he would have had the company by now for 1.37, there are just to many people that would have been more then to happy to vote for it
P.S. I cant wait to see the 4th quarter results. I am sure that will put any possibility of bankruptcy to rest. I just dont think they had no FCF from it and not only had to go into COH to pay for operation but to the tune of 100 million they have not had to do even close to that for a very long time.
Cos1000, As to the post before I think he could have got the company for a buck because there would have still been enough votes for it. Feb 19 05:46 PM |Report abuse|
I'm sure you're a fine dude. But...several months late and many dollars short with your info...try to get current with the board will ya??? Got anything else?
On Feb 19 04:02 PM cos1000 wrote:
> No your not missing it. There hasn't been any press release. The
> electronic brokers have been posting the estimated report date as
> the Monday the 23rd, but that's not official. Everyone on the I-Net
> has been running with that date. That's why I posted that I wouldn't
> be surprised to see a delay in filing with all of the manipulation
> that's been going on and deal making..... KPMG still has to complete
> their annual audit and such and this is their first year on the job....
> I don't have any official info, just like everyone else. Not a word
> from the company..... This stock drifts down in limbo, and that's
> where we are...... It's not bad news it's no news.... IMHO
1. It never happened.
2. The offer was so good to stockholders, they couldnt allow a vote(then why no leak of the offer?) Makes no sense.
3. We are being played again, and all the players are playing us.
I choose #3, due to logic. Other 2 make no sense. If Ergen NEVER made an offer to Sirius, wouldnt he just say that at some point?
If there was an offer, it couldnt have been worse than the Malone deal. Notice how the media didnt bash the deal, just Sirius.
Sirius sucks, and Malone is a genius.
Jack Shaw and Eddy W. Hartenstein. So it appears there will be 4 previous or current Direct TV BOD on our board.
Not saying it means anything .. just didnt know it before today
Look, I feel the frustration. I melted yesterday. But today is a different story. I think today we have much better perspective with which to work.
After this deal, and after many of us have wavered once or twice on the opinion of our beloved "leader" Mel K, we now have enough proof as to how we stand. We're not low on the totem pole...We're NOT EVEN ON the totem pole. So good. As we've always said, we just want to know where we stand for sure. Now we know. And thus we can do something about it.
And that's take care of number 1 (us). Mel's already taken care of #2...on us that is. But again, no matter what, Mel could have committed harry carey on us and left us six feet under. We're above ground and hence we still have air, tools and a plan. If everyday you want to see what the alternative would be like, put CHTR at the top of your board and look at it every day. That would be us we're it not for Mels ego...for that we are grateful.
Mel actually did us a favor if you know what to look at. I'm not telling anyone their strategy business but this stock is primed and ready to give...daily. 1K or 2K on this redundant action. Tools: $15K, 100K share blocks, a real-time board. That's it...except for a keen eye and some very easy timing. I am waiting for a fund infusion but that is where I am headed. I will consolidate a few positions. sell a litle SIRI for cash flow but still want to leave like 30K shares long because we will never know now when Melly Mel will be spinning his web. when he does, you don't want to miss it because that one will not be only a test, like the last two chinese fire drills were. That will provide some great movement, I garooonteeee it. The Street is consistent. If youplay the next 60 days right it could make your entire year. This is a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY. Notice anything in common with the last two moves? Why? both were either based rumor or incomplete news. Shorts get pissed because they had to bother covering. Then when they realize there are no buyers lined up, they look stupid and hate that. So they get angry and take ya out back. Simple. In the meantime I will start day trading this puppy. what is the best stock to daytrade? Answer: The one you know. The one you have history with. SIRI. And it's two trades a day, one buy, one sell... I feel bad for some dudes who couldn't take it any more. I understand but soon you are going to kick yourselves. Man have I made that mistake in my early trading days. No, now is not the time to bail or be down. We're good. We've just seen next to worst from this SP @ .05. We made it through that. We've just got to keep being ourselves, doing what we do, and ride Mel like the pig he is LOL. Still PLENTY of gains here my friends. You just have to turn this thing back rightside up. I like a lower SP. I hope it goes lower. I will buy more shares. We're soooo close now. Just a little more time. Hang in there guys. Remember, the tough get going.....
If you own this stock above .30 cents(this is straight from the company), your a fool!!
Thats the message I get. Owning this stock at all is stupid Mel says, for your nothing more than cash to me, cash you hopefully, if it all plays out correctly, will never see. Dont be too harsh on Malkei, hes right, just late to the party.
Mel...I am doing EVERYTHIGN in my power to shake out our stockholders. I delay CC's, I sound like a senial old man in them, we never give specific plans, no plans on growth avenues, no plans on debt obligations. I never attack our critics. I never do ANYTHING to enhance shareholder value.
Mel has time to make ammends however. He needs to do that quickly, or we need to group together, higher a lawyer, and start making demands, and make them accountable.
I would be more than happy to pay into a pool to hire a lawyer.
IF that was Mel's "BIG DEAL" I feel a little unwowed.
How you been? No worries. Mel just threw us under the bus again...nothing new LMAO...Relmor's not negative he's just venting. He's a warrior and he know what to do now..We can handle Mel and we will.
If you can't DT, you are not in bad shape (if you've averaged down enough). This stock will run for longs. If you can wait a few more months on the longside...you will still get paid. No guarantees how the move will fit into your current cost basis but it will be a helluva lot better than .125. IMHO, count on it...
See, now that this is the sentiment in here, I like it!! Perfect. This is when stocks go up. Out of nowhere.
I will hold my full position until after the q4. I dont think its going to pop until then, if at all. Taking care of may debt might gather some interest.Maybe then. After that, I would gather only new revenue streams, and good q's will notice anything significant.
dude..we've got this. We're in a great spot. F the lawyers...we know that goes nowhere. We have power dude. We can take out money back and we will. Two chinese fire drills (no offense to any of our chinese poster btw lol). So what? We saw a few more cards. That's cool. What have we lost? We've actually gained man. Another piece to the puzzle on Melly's lapel. We've got this. We just get a little more proactive while we keep waiting and keep another tranche sitting there. Dude, this could make your year by May 1. We're on it...Let Mel shake people out. We hang on cause we know how to and get paid. Then we tip the man on the way out and say thanks for nothing...LOL
Yeah and F those a-holes NITE. Bad news those boys. They love giving beatings out back. To investors and other MM's. They're the big dogs on the block....
Yes sl62, we will win this one. I know. Im gearing up for war again. Just shaking off the last of the dirt Mel threw on my grave...OK...
Alright., im good to go now.
Lets get this Party started!!! GO TEAM GO!!!
LOL
Seriously, your attitude is what I needed to hear. I agree. They can contain this stock always. We know that now. It will give you chances. I hope this will convince everyone now that if you dont have any buys under .15 cents, your not here to win.
I meant they CANT contain the price forever, not from these levels.
exactly...Mels practically begging us to day trade this thing. I think he's actually trying to be nice to us LOL...
For the long side...all youhave to do in this game is be the last man standing. If you are you will get paid...and well. Mel loves the 11th hour. Right now we're in his 10th. One more hour to go. We can't be controlled. We know too much. We're taking this thing back big time.
know you know contents of my last post...just for others who don't....and just an idea IMHO...
On Feb 19 07:30 PM sl62 wrote:
> We can all get in Old Druids boat, cruise up the east river and moon
> Mel after we get paid...
>
> Yeah and F those a-holes NITE. Bad news those boys. They love giving
> beatings out back. To investors and other MM's. They're the big dogs
> on the block....
Welcome aboard. Good strategy. After what we just went through this week and late last, this is one of the best-positioned DT stocks I can think of (with proper share blocks). Good luck...make sure you wait for MM takedowns to buy. Afterward, they always bid back up at least a penny.
So. Now we are definately going to be diluted.
At least no bankruptcy. (whoopee...)
So, our shares lose more value and will never gain momentum on their own, if at all.
Sirius Corporate does nothing to help SP so our shares remain anemic.
And of course, as usual, the company remains stagnant.
But on the up side, Mel is happy! Not to difficult to understand why.
Guys, this is not how it is supposed to work.
Mel wants this company for himself. HE SAID SO!!
Bold faced, right from the horses mouth. No secret.
"Would LOVE to take Sirius private"
Is there anything I am missing or has Mel in deed been positioning himself to acquire this "extremely distressed" company that he has been doing everything in his power to "save from bankruptcy". Seems more and more likely to have a problem plagued future in its current state, does it not? No only do his strategies make no sense to us, they do not make sense in any realm where a positive progressive outcome is expected. And why no leaks from Ergen? Because he is in on it. He was promised a nice windfall (which he did receive) if he agreed to play the part of the "aggressor", but tell no one. It is impossible for someone to keep the unsolicited "secret offer" a secret. Especially if you had supposedly been humiliated by a flat out rejection. In the real world, Ergen would have spilled the beans the minute Mel rejected his offer. This would have put such a "what are you 4king nuts?" spin on Mel's insane logic that he would have to be led away in a straight jacket leaving Ergen holding the cards. You see, there was no offer in December. There was no offer last week . And phoney Maloney, just another of Mels partners in crime. He was given a sweet deal that was disguised as him lending a helping hand. It was not a bailout and he is not a "White Knight" as we all now know. If he were, the May debt would not have been left flapping in the breeze. As far as the timing, Mel had this entire scheme in place many months ago. I am sure if there was a way to investigate, we would probably be shocked to learn that there was never any real attempt to refinance the debt through conventional lending institutions either. No need to. Why undermine a perfect opportunity to acquire a 6 billion dollar company for less than 20% if its value? And us shareholders? It is true that we are not even on the totem pole. We are weak and out of the way right where he wants us. We can make no trouble for him. Simply put, Mel wants this company. He thinks he deserves it. After so many years of others benefiting immensely from his efforts, now it is his turn. He wants it all and will be damned if anything gets in his way. After all, money is power. And Mel, the big ego with the little dink, needs to be up high on that list before he depart this world making that b- line to hell where he will be buried up to his eyeballs in our excrement for all eternity. Worth it Mel? I'm glad you think so.
So how much longer are we going to speculate? If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck... What more is there to say. We have enough proof in just this posts to bring him down. That should be our goal right now. Stop beating a dead "dog" or "pig" or whatever analogy you choose. Time to spring to action and bring the bastard down before he has the last laugh! I don't know about you guys, but Sirius XM is my company as well. I own 400000 shares of it and I demand that the people running my company be held absolutely accountable for the mess we are in. Mel needs to be thrown to the dogs. Plain and simple. We must petition to remove him. Is anyone here interested?
Sometimes its better to keep the devil you know, than getting one you don't.
Especially in a time of chaos
just my opinion
On Feb 19 08:47 PM OldDruid wrote:
> >>bdp,
> Sometimes its better to keep the devil you know, than getting one
> you don't.
> Especially in a time of chaos
> just my opinion
Even though Management is treating us like they were a privately held company that doesn't mean we don't have a position in line at the closing table. Should they go private as part of a buy out investment, an offer to shareholders for shares would have to be made, and a special meeting for a vote taken, yes or no.
I really do not think going private will be the case here any time soon. I felt a long time ago (it now seems), that 2009 was going to be about debt restructuring and getting over those hurdles. It was on an article titled something like, "SIRIUS XM 2009 Debt Is A Non Issue" by Brandon Matthews. Now granted that was back in mid August and we all have learned a lot since then. Six months and now we know what it is like to get over those 2009 debt hurdles.
All I can tell you about stock price and not trading the stock on pops, is for you to know what kind of money you were looking to get, and place a limit order, for that sell price that achieves your goal. Date it good til cancel and hope for the best, adjusting as need be, but sticking to your plan. If you get sold out, Great! Treat each buy this way, have a plan to sell, and if it goes up you make money and your out. If you do not have a sell strategy your emotions (greed) will take over and you won't sell when the time comes for you to make money. JMO but do have your own strategy....
On Feb 19 06:45 PM OldDruid wrote:
> cos1000, If siri were to be taken private, would it be a loss to
> someone entering at these levels? Do the share holders get any say
> in that process? Thanks for your good post! I spent hours reading
> them as part of my dd before jumping in on tues and again today.
> To anyone who thinks this stock beats on you, you should have seen
> the beating I took with Citigroup.
>
>
> On Feb 19 04:02 PM cos1000 wrote:
just my opinion
On Feb 19 08:50 PM bdp wrote:
> Yes and sometimes it is better to be raped than beaten. What kind
> of a response is that?
If my shares never advance past .50 cents, and I dont get to vote on who owns this company, then yes, I will sue.
We were allowed to vote for the shares...
We didnt know we were voting those shares to just give to someone for free. Literally. For free. Actually it COST us money to GIVE him shares. WOW. I would imagine there would be some public outcry about this deal...
The media is silent, and they are no help. He gets one more CC as Ive said, then im done. I dont care what he says to the stockholder. Just going to keep half my position in case I get lucky.
O ya, I agree, there never was an offer. As my logic stream dictated, that would have been impossible for there to have been an offer, had it rejected in Dec. and not hear of it till now. Ergen would have to be retarded to play that hand, and I dont think hes retarted. This company's future money is going to the board of Echo/DirectTV, and Mel and his croonies. Howard was paid.
The subs who got the company to this point and all the shareholder money that was necessary to get them here..
We will get the shaft. As usual.
DOW broke support today. Not good. Oil did well, so dont believe this market to 6000 bs. Not going to happen. Too many big money margin calls would destroy the system. They would just stop trading if it broke 7000. I dont think they CAN let it go there..
Insurance companies would be bked, banks would be reemed.
I have a question? If the media loved Obama's plan so much prior to him being elected, why the about face? Hes done nothing different from exactly what we knew he would do.
As I told everyone before, Obama will be good for gold, and literally
NOTHING ELSE. Seen what golds doing. Not a coincidence that the dollar index is at levels before when gold was at 700-800...
Now its almost to 1000 and the dollar index is a lot stronger. Where will gold be when the dollar index is back to sub 70? Id imagine over 1200 by then...
Mel knows the economic environment. Hes going to squeeze every last penny out of the common, and then throw it off.
Well...We are there now. Only go up from here. Lets average down again, and lurk in the shadows, ready to bounce.
LOL
Hey a bunch of numbers, whats your DOW low?
COs1000?
Other wonderful poster too numerious to mention?
sl62..
My ultimate DOW low will be 5500, and we will hit it around Nov of this year. I expect a rally to at least 9700 between then and now.
On Feb 19 09:07 PM OldDruid wrote:
> I simply point out, that in this time of extreme global financial
> chaos, were all the shareholders to stage a successful revolt, replacing
> management with unknowns, in a company that was this close to death,
> might not be the best idea, if one thinks it through. I do understand
> the sentiment. I felt the same way about the company I worked for
> some 15 years back. Sometimes it is better to wait until the company
> has a little more strength, then start accountability efforts.
>
> just my opinion
>
>
> On Feb 19 08:50 PM bdp wrote:
Now what do you think?
Now what do you think?
On Feb 19 09:26 PM 360492 wrote:
> Bankruptcy comes later!! Read " How to Buy Satellllites Cheaply-
> As Shown by Liberty Media." You'll find the report on Briefing
> .Com
>
> Now what do you think?
We are agreeing to throw in the towel.We are saying lets plat by his rules. My freinds that is NOT how a war is won. I enjoy all of your posts and I take info from them and preach at work. I tell of better days ahead and how Mel turned out to be a good man by saving the companey from the clutches of Ergen. this is not cut out for me. I could never run my construction buss this way. Lies back room deals and futuretake overs. How the F$%K did we get here? I bought in at 4.77 again at 3.54 I was able to avg down to 1.75. I def run the finances in my house. ALL major decisions go through me, but I can not look my wife in the eyes and tell her I am buying more of this peice of s%^t stock.
I wasn't trying to be prophetic nor was I saying that we were in a good position. I simply stated we have a place at the table, the obvious as you stated, but a question answered after being asked.... What others do when they vote to accept an offer is out of our control. Institutions own many more shares and now it would appear Malone will own 40% of them when this deal is finally done. How many institutions do his many owned subsidiaries have business relationships with that will vote with him, giving him control in 60 days of this company. He doesn't need 51% owned he just needs to control 51%.
I personally wanted to see all of the possibilities of the company come to fruition and pick a nice profit for my patience, but this game is not in our control and you know that. That's why you, me, and everyone else here is trying to figure out how to make some money while we can. I for one, especially in this economy with so many companies trading under a buck, and so many on the brink of BK, or already filed the 11 not executing the Chapter 7, that any lawsuit is going to give me any more money out of this than an offer for $1.50 would give me. The $1.50 and I just using that figure to make a point, gets me out and about to do other things. If that was the plan that management had, they got me, I fell for it, now give me my buck fifty and let me get the hell out of here. Any thing outside of a price that gets me out whole or more, I'll sign up for that suit. Right now that is not in front of me.... What's in front of me is a dog as stock price that I need to find a way to make some money by building my share base with.... I am not interested in taking a penny pop... I sold 1/4 of my shares Tuesday at .2245 and repurchase more for .1585 the same day. I sell on a pop and buy back when it retraces. For me I won't trade for a penny. Today I tried to sell 10K shares at .1437 as I said above and the minute my order hit platform, BOOK put 150K right in front of me, and the stock got taken down to .125 at closing. That's all I am trying to do here... we do not control a thing. At best we can ride with them and make some money. That's it.....
I don't predict the stock price for this company on any given day, but on any given day I can make a sell and a buy and make money. I know everyone is frustrated....... so aren't I.....
I can clearly see your logic and appreciate your views. I just feel like I have come out of a coma and I am not happy with what I see. This company continues to keep us at the chump level and they know they will continue to get away with it. They have us all believing in them over and over again as we are fed just enough to divert us from reality. And if tomorrow there is a 5 penny rise in the sp, well all is forgiven and happy days are here again, until Monday when it drops 6 cents. I understand that this problem is not just exclusive to Sirius. There are many companies folding and in deep trouble because of the economy. But I am sure most of them are trying to survive through this rough time rather than exploit it as an opportunity of a lifetime. This is what disturbs me the most.
I absolutely agree that this company has a grip on me.... It also currently has me underwater and I don't like it..... I do not trade share every day..... as matter of fact this is the only company I trade that way. By doing the painful, not life enhancing trading, of this company now..... I will be able to get out of it sooner. There definitely something wrong with what's going on with this company..... It is very apparent that investing in it was a mistake made a long time ago. I am, like others just trying to get some of it back and I can be like a pit bull when I think someone has taken my trust and then money from me... I can't call a cop because they, the SEC, could care less....
I have no idea what is an "appropriate" offer to be bought out is at this point. The company is worth more than the stock price for sure and I personally need a $.57 price (as of today) to come out even.
But what is a likely take over / take private price at this point?? .30? .60? 1.60? I have no idea how to even guess at the answer.
On Feb 19 09:35 PM cos1000 wrote:
> bdp,
> I wasn't trying to be prophetic nor was I saying that we were in
> a good position. I simply stated we have a place at the table, the
> obvious as you stated, but a question answered after being asked....
> What others do when they vote to accept an offer is out of our control.
> Institutions own many more shares and now it would appear Malone
> will own 40% of them when this deal is finally done. How many institutions
> do his many owned subsidiaries have business relationships with that
> will vote with him, giving him control in 60 days of this company.
> He doesn't need 51% owned he just needs to control 51%.
>
> I personally wanted to see all of the possibilities of the company
> come to fruition and pick a nice profit for my patience, but this
> game is not in our control and you know that. That's why you, me,
> and everyone else here is trying to figure out how to make some money
> while we can. I for one, especially in this economy with so many
> companies trading under a buck, and so many on the brink of BK, or
> already filed the 11 not executing the Chapter 7, that any lawsuit
> is going to give me any more money out of this than an offer for
> $1.50 would give me. The $1.50 and I just using that figure to make
> a point, gets me out and about to do other things. If that was the
> plan that management had, they got me, I fell for it, now give me
> my buck fifty and let me get the hell out of here. Any thing outside
> of a price that gets me out whole or more, I'll sign up for that
> suit. Right now that is not in front of me.... What's in front of
> me is a dog as stock price that I need to find a way to make some
> money by building my share base with.... I am not interested in taking
> a penny pop... I sold 1/4 of my shares Tuesday at .2245 and repurchase
> more for .1585 the same day. I sell on a pop and buy back when it
> retraces. For me I won't trade for a penny. Today I tried to sell
> 10K shares at .1437 as I said above and the minute my order hit platform,
> BOOK put 150K right in front of me, and the stock got taken down
> to .125 at closing. That's all I am trying to do here... we do not
> control a thing. At best we can ride with them and make some money.
> That's it.....
> I don't predict the stock price for this company on any given day,
> but on any given day I can make a sell and a buy and make money.
> I know everyone is frustrated....... so aren't I.....
On Feb 19 09:53 PM cos1000 wrote:
> By the way Bdp,
>
> I absolutely agree that this company has a grip on me.... It also
> currently has me underwater and I don't like it..... I do not trade
> share every day..... as matter of fact this is the only company I
> trade that way. By doing the painful, not life enhancing trading,
> of this company now..... I will be able to get out of it sooner.
> There definitely something wrong with what's going on with this company.....
> It is very apparent that investing in it was a mistake made a long
> time ago. I am, like others just trying to get some of it back and
> I can be like a pit bull when I think someone has taken my trust
> and then money from me... I can't call a cop because they, the SEC,
> could care less....
You and I have woken from different comas to find the same ugly reality..... Let's see if all of this speculation while the wheels of the deal are still turning gets us..... If it goes up .05 without any news tomorrow, I will sell 1/4 of my shares and buy them back on Monday. What can I say.... its going to take real news to sustain any type of turn around.... We will know that News when it comes, everything else is a head fake.... Good night and good luck.......... thanks for sharing your honest opinion with me and the board....
On Feb 19 09:54 PM seri wrote:
> Cos,
>
> I have no idea what is an "appropriate" offer to be bought out is
> at this point. The company is worth more than the stock price for
> sure and I personally need a $.57 price (as of today) to come out
> even.
>
> But what is a likely take over / take private price at this point??
> .30? .60? 1.60? I have no idea how to even guess at the answer.
>
>
> On Feb 19 09:35 PM cos1000 wrote:
On Feb 19 09:58 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Bdp,
> You and I have woken from different comas to find the same ugly reality.....
> Let's see if all of this speculation while the wheels of the deal
> are still turning gets us..... If it goes up .05 without any news
> tomorrow, I will sell 1/4 of my shares and buy them back on Monday.
> What can I say.... its going to take real news to sustain any type
> of turn around.... We will know that News when it comes, everything
> else is a head fake.... Good night and good luck.......... thanks
> for sharing your honest opinion with me and the board....
I guess we'll have to just keep bailing..... and then we swim...
On Feb 19 10:01 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Bdp,
>
> I guess we'll have to just keep bailing..... and then we swim...
In all honesty until all the numbers for the 4thQ, all the actual restructuring of the 2009 debt is known, and how the 1stQ is going right now, there is no way to know what the company is worth... It could easily be worth pre merger levels of 12-14B and it could be argued even more. That's why Malone and Ergen want it...... Its selling for Flee Market prices right now.
On Feb 19 09:59 PM bdp wrote:
> The appropriate price is exactly the absolute lowest denomination
> they can get away with. You can be sure, if the time came, there
> will be all kinds of depreciation formulations and depressed market
> values factored in that would bring the value closer to chump change
> than it is to 6 billion.
Your answer is probably correct (depressingly so). It reminds me of the legal "reasonsable man" test. The test sounds like nice as a way to make an objective legal determination (and a lot of times it works well) but as you add more facts to the "reasonable man" it becomes less objective, e.g., a reasonable man, that is 6ft tall; 65 years old; with blues eyes; lives in Woodstock, NY; was born on a Tuesday, etc.
As a applied to "what is a reasonable valuation of a "typical" company like Sirius?" Answer: there is no company like Sirius. So without any metrics, it is "the lowest they can get away with"
On Feb 19 09:59 PM bdp wrote:
> The appropriate price is exactly the absolute lowest denomination
> they can get away with. You can be sure, if the time came, there
> will be all kinds of depreciation formulations and depressed market
> values factored in that would bring the value closer to chump change
> than it is to 6 billion.
Per your sage posts, the goal to is get as low a break even price as I can and hope that the company is turned over (or turned private) at something above it.
Night to all. I don't post a lot but do read and appreciate all the views - we're all in the pickle.
On Feb 19 10:09 PM cos1000 wrote:
> seri,
>
> In all honesty until all the numbers for the 4thQ, all the actual
> restructuring of the 2009 debt is known, and how the 1stQ is going
> right now, there is no way to know what the company is worth... It
> could easily be worth pre merger levels of 12-14B and it could be
> argued even more. That's why Malone and Ergen want it...... Its selling
> for Flee Market prices right now.
1) Taking the XM division into Bankruptcy would hurt the stock how?
3.2B Current Debt, but only 977,500,00 is Sirius. The Sirius breakdown of Debt is due 2011 SIRI 230,000,000, due 2012 SIRI 247,500,000, and due 2013 SIRI 500,000,000 places the company in position to pay with yearly FCF. This also places the company in position to Launch new sattellite in 2013.
2) Some of the Debts have been reported to be available for .40 - .60 on the dollar. So did this 530M infusion from Liberty purchase all the 2009 Debt? Are the FCF funds purchasing some of the Debt? If so, which debt.
3) Divesting itself of XM Assets(Sattellites & Offices), and isssuing replacement radios to XM subscribers would cost how much? Are the existing Sattellites worth 2.3B? How many Bridges would Mel burn by doing this?
4) How many O's are there in one of those small boxes of Cheerios?
Full Steam Ahead!!!!
I have traded Sirius stock with the BK news and am now done with it at a loss (mostly from being too greedy). Bare in mind that I am not but a country bumkin, and am ill informed in most stock trading matters.
Now I don't want to offend anyone, but I have seen alot of Cramer bashing. I am not trying to be Cramer's advocate, but I (as in many ways) would like to propose a contrarian view point.
Is it possible that Cramer, being as connected with the seedier side of hedge funds/shorting the market, was trying to warn away his listeners/readers from this stock for the very same reasons that many of you may seek legal ramifications (possible naked short selling/securities fraud)?
I dont think thats what happened. Cramer did a classic pump and dump, and anyone who thinks differently didnt watch his shows or follow his fraud.
He told everyone from Jan to June.."You got yourself a $5 dollar stock there".
They lied about synergies.
No WHERE NEAR promised.
Cramer never mentioned this fact nor has he. He said its a lottery ticket "$2 lottery ticket" to be more specific. This was so when it dropped to 1.32 and stabalized, everyone would buy it again.
Then the next shoe drops, the massive dilution, etc... and here we are today.
Cramer is a fraud and a crook, as per the Patrick Bryne, CEO of overstock.com. GO read about him.
Google deep capture.
Have fun convincing yourself that story is false.All IMVHO
.12 cent drop can from all order not seen on the board, or from panic selling, but once again....
WHO PANIC SELLS AT THE BOTTOM!!!!
Really?
Isnt all the .06 cent buyers out? Whos selling at .11 cents? Where did they buy? WHo shorts at .11 cents? This is naked shorting, IMVHO.
Malone is buying his 10 percent stake, or has already. Institutions will fill there orders. Volume at these levels the last 2 weeks has to mean either
1. Huge money dumped(why, where did they buy from?)
2. Huge money loaded.
MM's job if #2 would to now be to shake off all daytraders(they realize now that any long term longs left are here to stay, and they will deal with that, hoping most only make a portion of there money back, be satified with smaller gains, and shake them out later, at higher levels.
YOU CANT TAKE A DAYTRADER UP huge amounts.
Defines the rule of the market...
Funneling large amounts of money to a few profiters.
Fascinating. This is from a successful CEO of a billion plus dollar company too. Not some luney. Mark Cuban was an ally of his...
Whos under SEC investigation? 100 hedge funds that practise naked short selling? NO, Mark Cuban for a small order (to him)..
Thank you SEC, i feel so much safer knowing Martha Stewart and Mark Cuban are under the nail!!!
Forget the billions of shares that never were delivered...
BTW..
Sirius is not on the SOH list...
Could it be the IRS who repoprted your abuse?
Probably the idiot who is taking everyone's rating, hit Report abuse. A convienent way to eliminate comments.
OH. .. .
Just because I'm paranoid.. . . It doesn't mean that people aren't out to get me!
On Feb 18 07:05 PM killerkaul wrote:
> Connorport/ everyone................. tax-wise............ take the
> teeny hit this year and rollover / transfer all SIRI account {{ sep
> and rollover IRA's ]] into your ROTH IRA account............ at these
> penny prices per share, before they are $$$$$$$$$$$$ per share. Then
> never ever pay taxes on it again............... EVER !!! ... Just
> a little tax tip from the Dog...................... WOOF.
Fraustrated looking at screen and seeing trading in 4 decimals.
In worst case going ahead with Melone is better than BK.
I have been following you guys daily for several weeks. I have a decent block now that I have continued to average down and remain hopeful for a favorable outcome. These blogs have been an eye opener for me. I must say that I am a rookie and had no idea how little I really knew about how these games work. Considering the prospect of intentionally forcing the SP down for a cheap takeover, I'm now wondering if we are not seeing the government doing the same thing with the financial institutions.
I'm staying the course with Sirius. I remain optimistic that I will make money eventually. If I don't I still walk away with the value of the education and nail biting entertainment that I have taken from this experience. Cos, relmar, sl62, bunch of numbers, killer, bdp, mogammi....Perhaps you guys should start up a pay per view blog. I'm adicted now and would have no choice but to buy the subscription. Thanks for your countless hours of research and willingness to openly share the results.
Question. I use etrade (cash account). They will not let me trade in fractions of a cent. How do you do it?
If someone would pay me to hear my drivel Id be shocked. No, unfortunately not why we post here. Pay us for what so far? Keeping you invested in a pig? When this stock breaks $1, maybe you can donate 5% to charity for me, hows that.
Level 2 is usual low volume bs day...Heres what it saying to me
It is allowing above .13 cents on weak buying...Then plunging it to under .13...Repeat...NITE will block any advances today. They throw up a large block anytime there is momentum. MM's in 100 percent control today. Stock will end at the exact price they are looking for. Bottom is forming again..Going to take time to reestablish with "NO NEWS MEL" on the loose.
Hey, i like that.
Mels new nick name...
No news Mel...
Or the silent killer... I like that one too.. HEHEHEHe
On Feb 20 11:29 AM relmar2003 wrote:
> Pay per sight? LOL
> If someone would pay me to hear my drivel Id be shocked. No, unfortunately
> not why we post here. Pay us for what so far? Keeping you invested
> in a pig? When this stock breaks $1, maybe you can donate 5% to charity
> for me, hows that.
> Level 2 is usual low volume bs day...Heres what it saying to me
>
> It is allowing above .13 cents on weak buying...Then plunging it
> to under .13...Repeat...NITE will block any advances today. They
> throw up a large block anytime there is momentum. MM's in 100 percent
> control today. Stock will end at the exact price they are looking
> for. Bottom is forming again..Going to take time to reestablish with
> "NO NEWS MEL" on the loose.
> Hey, i like that.
> Mels new nick name...
> No news Mel...
> Or the silent killer... I like that one too.. HEHEHEHe
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE GUIDELINES
Composition of the Board of Directors
It is the policy of the Board of Directors that the Board at all times reflect the following characteristics.
Each Director shall at all times represent the interests of the stockholders of the Company.
SIRIUS: INFORMATION PLEASE!!!
Its all in the numbers.....I have thought at least 519 times about taking this pig out back and shooting it with my 357! I'm soo f*n tired of having my emotions run through the meat grinder. Like the rest of the " Lurkers", I can't thank you and others for all of your relentless efforts in attempting to make sense of this mess. The wall just responded....I'm Crazy....I'm Crazy!!!
You fail....
What you don't realize is that sirus/xm combined was over a 3 + billion dollar write down last year this depreciates the overall value of the company, it can't achieve this type of cash on hand. Now it could be valued at 3.4 billion if it made 3.4 billion cash, total assets are worth about that much, but with high yielding interest still owed on these assets the value is depreciated in this market place, especially since we are in a credit freeze.
Secondly the company depreciates in value from it's subscriber rates. Last year 18.5 million subscribers payed $12.99 a month, now 20 million subscribers pay $6.99 a month. You do the math, over a 3 year period if the subscriber rate was 12.99 a month the debt would be paid. If the rate was 12.99 a month with the combination of the sirius/xm merger then BK wouldn't of even been mentioned or been close to it, and the share price would be much higher than it is now.
FACT: sirus/XM had enough cash on hand to pay the feb debt, however due to the new structure of subscriber rates the additional debts would not have been payed. Since chapter 11 is a long process and restructuring would have to happen immediately especially because of this market place, this is why the company is in the position it is in now.
Sirius is estimated to make 1.2 billion LESS this year than it would have last year at the subscriber rates that were $12.99. Sirius/xm would need 24 million subscribers to equal the cash on hand that was made when sirus and xm on the market only had 18.5 million subscribers.
This is simple to understand, your article sucks.
- SIRI is a monopoly
- BK is off the table
- Debt being negotiated for better terms
- Cash Flow positive in 2009
- Co is still growing
We know that Mel always do things at last moment, keeps their shareholders uninformed, underquote the estimates.
Seeing above How long shorts can control?
If you are in for long SIRI and able to hold for 1-2 years then I do not see any issue
This stock price is criminal. Even with FULL dilution, which still hasnt happened yet. I dont care about 1-2 years. I would like the company to be fairly valued right now...
Spectrum costs 2 billion alone, satellites, ground real estate, infrastructure, cash, etc.. This company is priced for BK still, and is anything under .50 cents. The criminal shorters will never convince me this company should have a 300-500 million dollar market cap. THey could liquidate today and pay all their bills and still have cash to distribute out to shareholders. Thats with a chapter 7. IF they can find value in the satellites, plus the ones on the ground. No one can convince me this stock if fairly priced, or has been since under .50 cents. Some stocks trading on the market are still over priced, so I dont want to hear its the market. No, its not. Its the illegal naked short interest on this stock. Institutional ownership of this stock had been showing as prices dropped, it increased. Investors averaging down, gobbling up bottom prices, Malone possibly buying shares on the open market(has to now, before price goes up, because hes going to want the extra 9% of the common at come point, and in 3 years, he just has to buy 2 percent more and he can do whatever he wants with the company. The tax loss is huge as well, as they are related industries, and Malone can justify the acquiring of Sirius. The media has been criminal in their coverage of this stock. Ive never seen bashing on a company like this. Never heard Cramer ever say a stock that even inside of BK would not be entirely worthless, is saying outside of BK is entirely worthless.
Big Vinnie, your numbers are off, and your 6.99 is outrageous. NO way ever sub took the best of only, and cancelled the main sub. Hes what most did. They kept their Sirius, or XM, and ADDED the best of. Some cancelled and got the new radio. New subs came in after merger. Stockholders were buying subs to help business. I think we are going to be surprised at the subs at the end of the year. If its over 19.5, were in great shape. Internet payments, lifetime subs, paying in advance, and new subs because of the interlopal radio will help immensely. Credit upgrade, no debt due in 2010, most future sport money is already in escrow...
This stock is priced wrong, by a lot. It shouldnt be near these levels unless BK is a near term risk. So if upon the May debt resolution, and a good quarter if this stock isnt trading above .50 cents again, then it can only be naked short interest, or a collusive short effort(timed shorting) to supress the price, which I can prove an level 2. In fact, I could teach a 5 year old how to spot it. Watch how stocks not being surpressed trade, watch Sirius, and then come talk to me.
I put it at 3-5 billion right now.(Im being extremely conservative too). You could find someone to pay more, im sure. In 2 years, Id probalby say 10-15 billion, easy. With full dilution, and some added fluff to the price, $3 in under 3 years is not crazy.
You mentioned that Malone possibly buying shares on the open market(has to now, before price goes up, because hes going to want the extra 9% of the common at come point, and in 3 years, he just has to buy 2 percent more and he can do whatever he wants with the company. The tax loss is huge as well, as they are related industries, and Malone can justify the acquiring of Sirius.
What do you think about Malone being as new CEO?
I said, wow, DirectTV acquired exlusive NFL games. Thats huge. Ive owned the service, no complaints. Screws up only is the worst weather. I dont see how they dont eventually destroy DISH. So, I guess hes a good CEO. They make a profit. They are winning their battle with DISH. I would think one could do worse. I still havent given up completely on Mel taking this stock higher for his friends at some point, and the few of us battered stockholders will go along for the ride.
You know the only reason why I invested or you can say bet my life long savings in SIRI is because of the product and some faith in Mel.
Based on speculation this stock is priced to be doomed.
As speculators see sirius/xm as a luxury, more than likely churn is expected to rise and subscribers are going to diminish. The sector that this company is in, is what is plaguing it to be a doomed stock. Look at FM radio stocks, look at the majority of cable stocks (CHTR) charter communications is a prime example. This is a horrible sector to place satellite radio into, especially since it is a multi media platform. I simply put my view as a speculating annalists perspective, this doesn't mean that my numbers are wrong or that my views expressed are correct either.
Annalists take this economy that we exist in, base it at a quarter ahead of the curve to try and determine an end result. My numbers aren't wrong, and were based on churn being 2.5%, the subscriber growth losses in the auto industry, as well as the subscriber rate and acquisition costs, if you pit those numbers with the new subscriber rate of $6.99 a month the company is plagued for disaster as far as an annalist views it, but this is only short term. This is typically why the value is at where it stands and that is the reality to this market place, that doesn't mean that I have to agree to it either, but it is what it is.
Hell, Im not taking this stock as a sell and I'm not bearish on it either, I try not to speculate which is what has me stuck with this stock and so many shares over 65,000 to be exact and I was one of the few that bought in at .675 cents and still haven't sold it. In fact I've bought more stocks in 2009 (SPWRB), (STP), (SIRI), (WFC), and my only loss for this year (CHTR) which I invested heavily into in late 2008. Fact is we are in a recession this is the time to buy if you are in the long, and no matter how you view it in this market place there are more short sellers than there would be if the market wasn't in this credit freeze.
I believe that people that buy into SIRI, just as I buy into WFC and STP understand that these stocks are on the cheap it's all an assessment of the market, and not the actual value of the company or it's performance.
You will all eventually make loads of money off this stock and I think that its horrible that people feel that its the CEO Mel Karmazines fault for why the stock is were it is at. When the stock was $7 it was over valued in 2004, When the stock was $3 at early 2008 it was as well over valued, and you can see because of debt obligations and that it isn't cash flow positive, it is where it is at today.
There are short sellers everywhere in this market place, not just SIRI, siri just overall has a higher market cap as well as more outstanding shares that allows it to fluctuate at such a low price. SPWRB is full of short sellers as well as WFC and in this you must take everything with a grain of salt. Liberty media owning 40% stake in shares will also dilute sirius shares, but this effect is only short term as the out come will reduce short sellers to this stock, and it's guaranteed that when liberty gets there shares they wont be selling it any time in the near future.
Liberty isn't getting sirius for cheap unlike, charles ergen's bid was for. Liberty is actually taking a greater risk, regardless of tax write off expenses. The risk factor is what has the stock valued at what it is at, short selling has determined where this stock is at, and to many shares outstanding has determined where this stock is at, worst of all the acquisition of the "OVER VALUED" XM satellite radio has determined where this stock is at, especially since it had more overall debt than sirius at the time of it's aquiosition. So Brandon writes this retarded article and wonders why company value has dwindled?
On Feb 21 07:13 AM relmar2003 wrote:
> Big Vinnie, your numbers are off, and your 6.99 is outrageous. NO
> way ever sub took the best of only, and cancelled the main sub.
> Hes what most did. They kept their Sirius, or XM, and ADDED the
> best of. Some cancelled and got the new radio. New subs came in
> after merger. Stockholders were buying subs to help business. I
> think we are going to be surprised at the subs at the end of the
> year. If its over 19.5, were in great shape. Internet payments,
> lifetime subs, paying in advance, and new subs because of the interlopal
> radio will help immensely. Credit upgrade, no debt due in 2010,
> most future sport money is already in escrow...
> This stock is priced wrong, by a lot. It shouldnt be near these
> levels unless BK is a near term risk. So if upon the May debt resolution,
> and a good quarter if this stock isnt trading above .50 cents again,
> then it can only be naked short interest, or a collusive short effort(timed
> shorting) to supress the price, which I can prove an level 2. In
> fact, I could teach a 5 year old how to spot it. Watch how stocks
> not being surpressed trade, watch Sirius, and then come talk to me.
>
Looking at statistics there are only on average 2 million howard stern listeners and roughly 3 million NFL listeners for sirius. I don't know what the numbers are for xm subs, but I would assume that those numbers are roughly the same. So there are a little more than half the subscriber base that has the 12.99 plan still in effect, with 19.5 million subs soon to be 20 million subs by next quarter.
I do have a second receiver that I do pay 6.99 for that is for my wife, she can't stand talk radio and only likes the music, this is as well on an old starmate 4 receiver.
People buying the best of package is such a small percentage of the subscriber base I wouldn't even consider adding it.
We are in a recession, churn will grow. It happens to cable TV providers, and FM radio has seen a huge reduction in advertising. We will be seeing this in the 4th quarter report and it will grow in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 09, It's inevitable.
I do see profitability in the company but not until the middle of 2010 when the majority of the debt is paid so share holders are goingto have to ride this out and expect the dilution and reverse split to happen when nasdaq has the final word.
On Feb 21 06:57 PM 163888 wrote:
> Second you can only get the 6.99 package if you bought the new radio.
A company is only as good as the cash it makes to compensate for it's losses. The metrics of xm sucked and the sirius shareholders suffered the dilution from 4.5 shares to 1 when the deal was said and done. I would admit Mel paid to much for the company and structure and we are still seeing the side effects of this acquisition.
On Feb 21 06:18 PM 163888 wrote:
> Hey I am sick to death of people saying XMSR was over valued and
> SIRI did not have most of the debt. NEWS FLASH..... XMSR has all
> the satellites it needed in orbit already.
Agree that the churn may increase a little becuase of some adjustments in programming and weak economic conditions but going forward I see that to be compensated with retail side when it goes to iPhone etc.
During last few quarter results you would find very few companies annoucing growth in revenue. But SIRIXM is one of them.
Just imagine that for the last few years SIRIXM is focused on Merger and Debt and lacking in promoting their product.
Think about the time when they start foucussing on their product and start full fledged advertising, new products, tie-ups etc.
I think its going to be a GIANT.
Satellite Asset Management company.
Owned 273 million dollars in their debt. Is that number familar to anyone? This is as of q4. They filed their q4 already.
And 400000 shares of common. Would that amount of shares simply be to short the bonds?
www.privateraise.com/d...
But i dont think you need to be a permenant member. SEC filings for demo only get you to 2007, but its ok, the link from the SEc board can get you current filings. ONly using the privateraise site as a search engine.
Now as for the repeater towers that was a cost but not that much more then the ones SIRI had. Do you have any clue how much XMSR just spent on the last 2 satellite they just put up, that was almost all financed through debt. I also have a news flash SIRI was also going to have to do the samething with the 3 satellites they were planning on putting up. You think they were going to just crap that money (1.9 to 2.1 billion). No it would have had to be financed leaving SIRI in the same position XMSR was in. SIRI as a matter of fact still owes some on the one they are planning on putting up in the fall and then there is the cost of the launch and about 80 to 100 million more for the launch insurance.
I hope a lot of stockholders were stupid and bought subs, or plus sold them to friends, etc...
If they break 19.2 we could finally see decent jump, and a hold. Ithink there guidance will remain the same.
I have two questions for your consideration.
1. Will the "uptick" rule be reinstated in this calendar year?
2. Since there are over 200 companies on the NASDAQ under 1.00, will this rule be suspended again or altogether abolished in 2009?
Both of these questions obviously relate to SiriusXM going forward and could have effect on the SP.
Just wondering what the consensus might be on these two questions?
Long SiriusXM
I dont think they are in a big hurry to remove companies from the NASDAQ. They are like anything,and need companys like Sirius's volume. Doesnt make sense for them to hurry with this rule. Its more for good times than bad. If the economy is great, and u cant keep your stock over $1, then its not there problem.
thanks for your comments and support (cos1000,sl62,mogami too), you gave me back some hope for this stock, I did even buy more last week and intent to buy some more next week. What price do you recommend or expect to add some more ?
In one of your posts you mentioned you expect the Dow will be at 6000 later this year, but before that it would go above 9000. I would appreciate if you can explain that, thanks. Michael
On Feb 22 11:26 AM relmar2003 wrote:
> The uyptick rule was removed to help blame why the market is where
> it is. The shorts were attacked too. Its the economy, lol. I dont
> have a clue what those corrupt govenment agencies are up too. Probably
> figuring out the best way to make money for there buddies in these
> hard times. I think shortings easier, so dont hold your breath.<br/>I
> dont think they are in a big hurry to remove companies from the NASDAQ.
> They are like anything,and need companys like Sirius's volume. Doesnt
> make sense for them to hurry with this rule. Its more for good times
> than bad. If the economy is great, and u cant keep your stock over
> $1, then its not there problem.
Cash will be bad to be in soon. Everyone knows that. Inflationary forces are gathering that will make the last one appear tame. Bonds are a joke, they are nothign better than a mattress right now, so people will start to see that, and as risk decreases in the markets money will flow back in. 401ks still have mandatory buys, etc..
Foreign dollars would rather be in stocks than treasuries or 20/30 year...
Good luck getting a 30 year bond to be sold...Our country might not be here in 30 years.
Hard to find, further proves media manipulation, as if i needed more evidence. I think this is from a canadian news service, LOL LOL
satwaves.com/moodys-up...
i've owned the stock since 2004, I follow the sec filings. I know where this stock is going. You need to crawl back under the rock you came from buddy.
On Feb 22 07:49 AM 163888 wrote:
> Big Vinnie , you are getting your facts confused. The FCC required
> SIRIXM to have all the old radios be able to pick up the same service
> they were getting before. They required them to have the "a la carte"
> pricing plans. They did not require them to have the old radios be
> able to get "a la carte" (impossible by the way because there was
> only one other that you still could get some of the a la carte pricing).
> The only way you can get that price is if you buy the new radio which
> allows it. Are you a goof ball do you even know anything about SIRIXM.
> I say that because this is what I would consider common knowledge.
> Now while I could understand that not knowing this just before or
> right after the merger, because there were many confused back then.
> Try going to Sirius Buzz and go back to that dated material it was
> all explained then. The only thing almost all of the old radios are
> able to get is the Best of Both. If you still dont believe me and
> you dont want to do the research here some common sense for you.
> SIRIXM just came out with the "a la carte" radio" because why? I
> mean hell why even bother with it, when you have all the old radios
> that already can do the same thing. I TELL YOU WHY BECAUSE THEY CANT,
> you nit wit.
>
1st reciever (sportster 4) main account reciever I paid= 158.88($12.99X12) - ($12 year paid in full)+ $15 activation fee
2nd reciever (starmate 4) I paid= $98.88 ($6.99X12)+15.00 activation
Once again why do I call you a dumb arse and insult you, it is because when I have to cover the same crap a second and third time so others who come here and read these comments dont believe your dumb arse comments. So read this you idiot:
“We are pleased to launch the first-ever satellite radio enabled for A La Carte channel selection,” said Bob Law, Group Vice President and General Manager, Aftermarket Division, SIRIUS XM Radio. “The Starmate 5 Dock & Play radio reinforces SIRIUS XM Radio’s promise to give consumers more programming and pricing options.”
siriusbuzz.com/starmat...
Once again why do I call you a dumb arse and insult you, it is because when I have to cover the same crap a second and third time so others who come here and read these comments dont believe your dumb arse comments. So read this you idiot:
“We are pleased to launch the first-ever satellite radio enabled for A La Carte channel selection,” said Bob Law, Group Vice President and General Manager, Aftermarket Division, SIRIUS XM Radio. “The Starmate 5 Dock & Play radio reinforces SIRIUS XM Radio’s promise to give consumers more programming and pricing options.”
siriusbuzz.com/starmat...
"No joke this is what I paid, I just looked at my account statement, this is what I paid 47 days ago."
Big Vinnie your wrong once again there was a joke there. The joke was on you. The SIRIXM CSR was laughing that he got you to pay full price without a sweat.
If they can hold or even up guidance, this stock must respond. Media could no longer justify otherwise, especially went May debt is resolved. And especially if COH is over 350 million still.
Kidding.. Calm down tiger.
I remember you blasting me for ignorant comments I have made in the past, and im glad for it. I dont enjoy spreading lies, intentional or otherwise. I try to check my facts first from now on. If Bigvinny bothered checking his first, he wouldnt have posted his bs post. 6.99 for 19 million subs, is he insane? Thats ludicrious. Put down the pipe man.
Your language and attitude just makes you some pissed off jerk off, that dumped to much money into sirius and hasn't made a dime on it yet.
Your anger and attitude is well represented...
Have a nice day.
On Feb 22 07:12 PM 163888 wrote:
> Big Vinnie your wrong once again there was a joke there. The joke
> was on you. The SIRIXM CSR was laughing that he got you to pay full
> price without a sweat.
Sirius Long Hauler, I made mention of it a article or two ago when I said; "I guess we will have to wait till the 23 of Feb. to find out." I said that because that is when most of the brokerage houses are saying it is. Now I dont think it will be a CC but more like the 10-K/10-Q. I dont know if that is the dead line for them to file it or not.
relmar2003, I would watch it around "homer985" dont ever assume anything with him he will nail you on it. He is one of the best debaters I have ever dealt with. I think he writes for a living or at least does it on the side.
Remlor, Cos..?
On Feb 23 08:33 AM relmar2003 wrote:
> I might sell a small portion over .20 cents, but nothing till then.
> NO point to sell this low. .13 cents, .18 cents, not much difference.
> If your trying to make a quick buck, sure sell at .20 cents. If your
> an investor, why would you let someone rob you of your shares for
> that pittance?
Hi, Someone explain to me how Malone can use SiriusXM losses as a tax write off? (WSJ says that is best part of aquiring Sirius)
On Feb 22 09:03 PM relmar2003 wrote:
he wouldnt have posted his bs post.
> 6.99 for 19 million subs, is he insane? Thats ludicrious. Put down
> the pipe man.
I wouldn't go so far as calling it B.S. Lets say I go out and buy a new receiver for a la carte. Lets say I want just the music for $6.99. I have 2 old receivers, and lets say I give one to a family member that as well wants to pay the $6.99. What this does is a split where the original account holder originally paid $12.99 and is now getting a 2 for 1 bargain. Can use the old receiver with the entire service, while the main account receiver (for a la carte) can just get the a la carte at $6.99. I believe this is one of the reasons why sirius is doing a $2 price jack on family subs, it leaves a gap that would offer a 2 for 1 deal.
Also if you look at sirius's generated revenue from quarter to quarter it doesn't add up that over 19 million people are paying $12.99. 1/3 to 1/2 of the subscriber base are paying $12.99. Each receiver activated accounts for a sub, the actual account doesn't account for the sub, so hypothetically lets say one person on this account has the $12.99 service, while maybe one or two are additional receivers on this account that pay $6.99 each. This is also why I believe that sirius is raising the price on family plan subs. There are more people using the service at $6.99 than $12.99. Then accounts for subs for lifetime subscriptions that have already payed $500 and get off the hook within 3, 1/2 years of service. There are already subs that are 3 years old on this deal that can't be accounted for and the money has already been spent.
How do you account for subs that payed for life time subscriptions?
How do you account for subs under the $6.99 family plan?
I would think that realistically there are less people paying $12.99 than you think.
Yes I put that in my pipe and smoked it.
You also fail to realize that the acquisition cost for 2009 is higher since bulk debt is due for this year.
I don't care what 3rd quarter financials were and that never was my point. Besides you didn't even mention what the net profit was user/unit, because if you did those numbers would be silly.
You seem to be educated as to what is presented in the past, but you seriously have no clue what is coming ahead of this company.
Recessions do a couple things. They raise churn and or have most subscribers downgrade to more basic services such as the $6.99 plan. For new subs this is what will more than likely happen with the small subscriber growth that sirius/xm will gain in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarter of this year.
with the thought of bankruptcy in the news you wont see people paying the $500 down for a company that could possibly go belly up next month, in the minds of many consumers that don't know this company.
You seem to be good at reading whats in front of you, but you don't seem to speculate the market very well, you can't read between the lines.
Your failure to understand is also why you don't know why in all seriousness why this stock trades at .13 on avg for the last month.
I did my research and I read the sec filings, I know where this company is going for the next 3 quarters. You look at 3rd quarter filings and assume that it's going to carry this company through this hell storm for the next year, in all seriousness, get real dude. The debt is greater than the cash flow at hand.
On Feb 24 05:27 AM 163888 wrote:
> Big Vinnie, you really need to do some research before you spout
> out figures. Direct from XMSRs quarterly CC their family plans are
> in the range of 22.3%. They stated that they would like to get them
> over 25%, because they feel that it would reduce the churn due to
> costumer loyalty. Now as I said SIRIXM just had a ARPU (average revenue
> per user/unit) of 10.13 for the 3rd quarter the reason is due to
> the fact as I also said, most dont pay the full 12.99 they get deals
> that allow them to pay less, plus you have as XMSR has said (22.3%,
> just so we are clear SIRI never said exactly what their percentage
> of family plans was but it was known to be less then XMSRs) family
> plans included in that ARPU . As to your other point there is something
> called defered revenue. As to your final point I cannot confirm that
> if you can even get the family plan if you dont have a full service
> contract. I somehow dont think you bothered to confirm it ether though.
P.S. we will see what the 4th Quarter holds I say it will show a ARPU of closer to 10 then 7. Which by the way was the point of your original arguement. 8.5 and below you are right and 9.5 and above I am way right, because if you notice I did not even bother to go as low as 8.56 (that would make me sound as dumb as you). Just to let you know now, I am the type of guy who says "I TOLD YOU SO", so when I am right be ready to expect it.
Now my question is do other insitutions also sell shares to pay taxes? Could that account for some of these low priced sells?
(seems silly to have held at .18+ only to sell a week or two later at .12 or less)
Are there mechanisms that trigger selling regardless of SP? (other then loss limits that you would think would have been adjusted higher when SP was higher)
There are also rumors about another round of redemptions that cnbc reported yesterday. Not a big redemption, but big enough to notice.
On Feb 26 09:48 AM mogami_99 wrote:
> Hi,Good morning friends. I just noticed quite a few of the shares
> sold on Feb 23 at .12 were the insiders automatic selling of shares
> to cover taxes on their holdings (the 8k's are all posted on Sirius
> site)
> Now my question is do other insitutions also sell shares to pay taxes?
> Could that account for some of these low priced sells?
>
> (seems silly to have held at .18+ only to sell a week or two later
> at .12 or less)
>
> Are there mechanisms that trigger selling regardless of SP? (other
> then loss limits that you would think would have been adjusted higher
> when SP was higher)
>