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Vivus, Arena, And Orexigen Investors Waiting On February 25

Spencer Osborne profile picture
Spencer Osborne
4.11K Followers

February 25th is the day that Vivus (VVUS) will offer its Q4 quarterly conference call. There will be a lot of ears listening to the call, but many of them will not even have an investment in Vivus. Others that will be paying close attention are investors in Arena (ARNA) and Orexigen (OREX). Vivus, Arena and Orexigen all are vying for a position in the prescription anti-obesity market, and while the three companies are at different stages, the results offered by Vivus could be telling in what to expect moving forward.

Vivus was the first to market with Qsymia launching very late in Q3 of 2012. The initial results were well below street expectations and the company took a substantial hit on the news. Vivus then adopted a two-week trial program that delivered much better results, but the jury is still out on whether or not Vivus can continue to gain traction. In fact, the jury is out on whether any of these anti-obesity drugs will become the next blockbuster.

Arena investors will be paying close attention because Arena's Belviq, the only other FDA approved anti-obesity drug, is only a couple of weeks away from its own launch with varied levels of expectations as to what would actually define success. Certainly, savvy investors will be using Vivus's sales data to extrapolate sales results for Belviq.

Orexigen is not yet FDA approved and is still in what one may call a speculation phase. Retail investors with a belief in the anti-obesity market have connected with Orexigen in hopes that the substantial potential of the anti-obesity market will have a positive impact on this company as well.

Lastly, Vivus investors will have a keen eye on the Vivus sales numbers as well as a gauge on what type of success Vivus is seeing

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Spencer Osborne profile picture
4.11K Followers
Spencer Osborne assesses equities in a data supported realistic manner that is often missing in analysis that the average retail investor receives. His analysis is what investors NEED to hear rather than what they WANT to hear. He believes that the foundation of an equity price is based on what is probable rather than what is possible, and the trade focuses on possible near term catalysts and news. Smart investing is understanding how the market works and how that market mentality impacts a given equity. Spencer believes that investors should model their expectations and maintain a critical eye on whether those expectations are being met. If an invesor finds herself making excuses for missing the mark, then they are losing objectivity.

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