Seeking Alpha
Investment strategy, economy
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

The two-day selloff in the S&P 500 took a pause Friday with index posting a closing gain of 0.88%. Friday's rally, however, was not enough to avoid a loss for the week, albeit a small one of 0.28%. This is the first week of decline in 2013 and only the third weekly loss over the past 15 weeks. The US market Friday was essentially following the lead of Europe, where the major indexes posted substantial gains. The EURO STOXX 50 index gained a whopping 1.95%.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

(click to enlarge)

Here is weekly chart since January 2011. A correction at this point should not come as a surprise. That said, the number of pundits forecasting a correction might be a contrarian indicator. On the other hand, this week will be loaded with economic data, culminating on Thursday with the second estimate for GDP and on Friday with the January Personal Consumption Expenditures and Outlays.

(click to enlarge)

The S&P 500 is now up 6.27% for 2013 and 1.00% below the interim closing high of February 19, 2013.

From a longer-term perspective, the index is 124.0% above the March 2009 closing low and 3.2% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here's a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

Source: S&P 500 Snapshot: Friday Rally, But First Weekly Loss Of 2013