Slow Down Mr. Roubini 31 comments
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Roubini is getting on my nerves, because he's been pessimistic forever. When the market dived in 2008, suddenly everyone anointed him a guru--even though he was bringing the same negative shtick for over a decade. Now, he's made a prediction I think will be proven false:
And how long will it be before the administration goes in formally for nationalization? “I think that we’re going to see the policy adopted in the next few months . . . in six months or so.”
Set your calendars. If by August 22, 2009, Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are still private entities, Roubini will be wrong. In fact, it looks like he's already wrong--the White House has publicly announced it will not nationalize banks and has taken action to prop up Citigroup.
Bonus: I've never heard of a Jim Morrison market, but apparently it's when "The future's uncertain and the end is always near." Check out this pessimistic Barron's article.
I would have preferred the more optimistic "Take it as it Comes" instead:
Go real slow
You'll like it more and more
Take it as it comes
In other words, slow down Mr. Roubini.
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Now, he is a prisoner of his boogeyman's role and he will be wrong in the future.
What is intolerable is an attitude that wants to shut down uncomfortable information. This is a characteristic that Wall Street and their media circus perfected during the bull - demonizing and ridiculing anyone who was not wildly bullish.
If you have a counter case make it.
If you have data to bring to the table bring it.
If interviews with those who believe this crisis has a lot farther to run bother you - turn them off.
But do not, in the United States of America, try to stifle opinion.
On Feb 23 09:54 AM kelm wrote:
> Nouriel Roubini and a good number of others predicted the current
> crisis. If their analysis say that the crisis will go on longer fine.
> If the media chooses to interview him constantly that is their business.
> You may choose to listen or not listen. He will be the first to say
> that he will not be right about everything. he has stated publicly
> that he is in cash.
>
> What is intolerable is an attitude that wants to shut down uncomfortable
> information. This is a characteristic that Wall Street and their
> media circus perfected during the bull - demonizing and ridiculing
> anyone who was not wildly bullish.
>
> If you have a counter case make it.
>
> If you have data to bring to the table bring it.
>
> If interviews with those who believe this crisis has a lot farther
> to run bother you - turn them off.
>
> But do not, in the United States of America, try to stifle opinion.
Now, I'm going to predict that the market will rally stronger up by at least 30%,....and I will keep doing this every week and month for a decade. One fine day, you are going to call me a guru although I'm unknown now. But the problem is I cannot predict which day or week it will happen, I just know it will happen within the next 10 years.
So cut the craps and stop lying for those who claimed they can predict the future ! Just shut up.
On Feb 23 10:22 AM HC wrote:
> Who cannot predict there's going to be a market crash in a period
> of 10 years, idiot! The question is whether he can predict precisely
> when, the month or date.
> Now, I'm going to predict that the market will rally stronger up
> by at least 30%,....and I will keep doing this every week and month
> for a decade. One fine day, you are going to call me a guru although
> I'm unknown now. But the problem is I cannot predict which day or
> week it will happen, I just know it will happen within the next 10
> years.
> So cut the craps and stop lying for those who claimed they can predict
> the future ! Just shut up.
(e.g., "In fact, it looks like he's already wrong--the White House has publicly announced it will not nationalize banks and has taken action to prop up Citigroup.".....lollol...
rather than Nouriel Rouibini who so far has been correct about EVERYTHING THAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR.
Because I believed Roubini and others like him in Dec 07, I was able to reposition my portfolio so that now I have MORE money than I did in Dec 07, unlike those who believed Wall St and Washington political BS, who have lost 30-50% of their savings.
Amen! These boards rip someone a new one every time facts are selected over truthiness.
And, although the author of the piece does not consider it so, I do consider a 40% stake in Citi to be partial nationalization. In fact, the feds are now obligated to throw other people's non-existent money at it to infinity, or be wiped out like any "common" stockholder.
I will be nice to you but your opinions are worthless since you can provide no reason why things should get better. In fact, many banks are already wards of the state and are only alive because letting them fail would cause th stock market to fall by thousands of points all at once and might cause social disruption that would take decades to repair.
Do your homework and deal with facts and you will quit disliking people like Nouriel Roubini and you will find that you can make money in this market.
What we need is clear-thinking people who will not allow themselves to be blinded by the ideology of the moment. (such as that house prices must always go up at least a little bit)....and as soon as one ideology is
debunked, two or three others crop up and keep most of us hostage.
The analysts don't do so well, do they?
Whether we like it or not, he was right about this one, and was trying to warn people about the factors that brought about the crisis as they were unfolding and before everything blew up.
And besides... as people have been saying... these banks are essentially nationalized. If the government tells them to do something, do you honestly think they'll say no? Citi and company are entirely reliant on the bailout funds.
They effectively are national entities. Just witness Citi asking for the government to exercise the preferred shares to common shares to give the government a 40% equity share in advance of the stress test.
They already are at the beck and call of Uncle Sam.
He's not the only one to have been right about things going so very, very wrong.
On Feb 23 06:29 AM J. Nielsen wrote:
> I couldn't agree more. It is amazing about these so called experts,
> who keeps predicting the end of everything, whether it is the Dollar,
> the Euro, The Swiss Franc, the Sterling, - or the eventual collapse
> of the UK, the US, the EU, Switzerland, Eastern Europe, Russia and
> China.
>
> The experts have no expertise in predicting anything, it is all about
> about getting as much publicity as possible, making it about them
> and not their predictions. Soros is a big Soros propaganda machine,
> even in Congress he encouraged them to read his book.
>
> Certainly, there are problems out there, but why create an evil spiral
> of negative forecasts.
>
> It would be very interesting if somebody created a list of all the
> predictions of mr Roubini, Geroge Soros and Jim Rogers and others
> and see how often they are wrong.
>
> I bet they are wrong more often than right, just like everyone else.
>
>
> You cannot predict the future.
>
> We all know the butterfly effect.
>
> I hope somebody will create the list and prove them wrong during
> and after the crisis.