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LSI Corp. (NASDAQ:LSI)

Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

February 26, 2013 3:45 pm ET

Executives

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director

Analysts

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

I'm going to read the safe harbor real quickly. Please note that all important disclosures, including personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures, appear on the Morgan Stanley website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures or at the registration desk. Very happy, today, to have with us the CEO of LSI, Abhi Talwalkar. Abhi's going to start with some brief opening remarks and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Okay, great. Thank you. Hopefully, most of you know the company but let me give you a little bit of a context around LSI. We're very excited about where we are as a company. The transformation that we drove over the last 3, 4 years really starting to bear fruit. And our entire focus has been around networking and storage applications that have to do with storing, moving, protecting, accelerating and sharing sort of data. And as the world continues to generate tremendous amounts of traffic and store that data, it's really playing to our strengths. And we're a very focused company. Unlike many of our competitors that are much, much broader, we're #1 and #2 in the markets that we've selected to participate in.

If I look at how this strategy has played out, in the form of execution, ultimately, it's about results. We grew our business 23% last year, in 2012. Over the last 3 years, our growth has averaged 17%, substantially above the industry. And probably only second to someone like a QUALCOMM, when you think about multibillion semiconductor companies. And it's again, because of where we position the company around the tremendous growth in data, as well as the tremendous growth in traffic as well.

Over the course of the last 3 years, we've also seen operating margin expansion substantially. We had ran the company, specifically, in the 8% to 12% sort of operating income range as we've rebuilt the company and repositioned it. Last year, we saw expansion of operating income to 17%, 17.1% or so, substantially above 12.6% in 2011. We have a business model target that wants us to be around 20% to 22%. And we're certainly very focused, as a management team, to get towards that. We've also seen gross margin expand, substantially, over the course of the last 3, 4 years. Our gross margins are in the 53% to 54% range, very close to our business model, which also wants us to be somewhere in the 55% range in terms of operating gross margins.

From a cash position, cash is also very strong. We're about $676 million in cash coming into the year, no debt. We've retired all our debt over the last 3, 4 years. We've got an authorization outstanding, right now, of $476 million in terms of share repurchase.

Over the course of this morning's investor discussions, it became really clear to me that there's an opportunity for clarity on certain fronts, relative to our business. As well as an opportunity, potentially along the way, to debunk some of the myths that out there.

Let me hit the flash segment here, first and foremost. It's clearly a topic of interest, because of the tremendous growth that we're experiencing, and also the industry's experiencing itself. Our PCIe flash business, as well as our flash storage processor business, grew an aggregate of over 200% in 2012 to a total of $237 million, up from $70 million in 2011. We've talked about growing this overall business in 2013 at a rate -- at market growth rates potentially higher, and we expect the market to grow, somewhere in the 40% to 50% range.

We absolutely believe that LSI has emerged, over the past 12 months, as really the viable second player in the market, in terms of PCIe flash acceleration adapters. We believe, from a unit standpoint, we're clearly #2. We also believe, from a revenue standpoint, we achieved #2 as we exited last year. We've seen ourselves emerge out of sort of the wanna-be pack. If you go back to the beginning of 2012, which probably 8 or 9 of us, in addition to Fusion-io participating in this marketplace, OCZ, STEC, SanDisk, Intel, Micron, IDT, Verity, long list of companies. We have clearly established ourselves as the viable other player in the marketplace. Our product line is much more broader, and the full product line is now shipping in the marketplace. We have built proof-of-concept capacity to take on 30, 35 different customers at one given time. Which is important, because every single deployment is unique in nature, requires optimization and tuning, requires a tremendous amount of enterprise know-how as well.

And along the way, we've achieved some pretty significant milestones. Over the last several months, we've now -- are at a point where at least 4 major web cloud companies have put our products in production environments or are placing production orders. We've got 3 financial services companies that have also placed production orders or are in production, sort of deployment process, across a number of applications. We think these will materialize into significant contribution in terms of revenue ramp in the second half. And we've got many more pilots and POC's, very active across the top 20, 25 web cloud and financial services companies as well.

In the flash storage processor space, we saw that business grow substantially last year. We believe we are #1 in terms of unit share, and we're very confident in that roadmap. We continue to bring new products out to the marketplace. Some of our new customers just announced 90-nanometer support across their family of SSDs. We are shipping flash storage processors, either in the form of standard processors or custom processors, to all 6 NAND companies. And a number of them are engaged with us, both in the form of standard flash storage processors as well as custom as well. And we are the only merchant market player, today, that's supporting both standard as well as custom.

Let me shift briefly to Axxia, on our networking business. Our networking business, we are really focused on 2 application areas, wireless infrastructure in terms of base stations, given the tremendous growth in mobility and just broadband; as well as enterprise switching, both campus core, as well as data center switching, all Ethernet-based. We approach these 2 markets with 2 product lines, Axxia and custom. And I'm going to spend a few minutes on Axxia, and we'll pick up maybe custom in the Q&A.

We made a major announcement last week with Nokia Siemens. Nokia Siemens and LSI are collaborating on LSI's next-generation Axxia processor. It's the industry's first 16-core ARM network processor. We believe we'll have at least a 9- to 12-month advantage relative to time to market, as well as the attributes that we have in our product. This is a pretty significant achievement, with Nokia Siemens. It adds to the other major player that we're also shipping Axxia into. And it's a proof-point to what we said a year ago. We said a year ago that we would have over 50% share of the data plane and control plane, basically the CPU in the base station, that we would have 50% share over the course of the next several years. So we have 2 of the top 3 companies now adopting Axxia, and we're well on our way to achieve that share position.

We also can extend that commentary into the baseband where we are also going to ship baseband silicon into these 2 companies, which we also believe will amount to at least 40% share. These share levels are up from 10% today. So we're very excited about what's happening in our networking business.

And then last area that I want to hit is hard disk drives. That's always comparable [ph] relative to our current share, shareholders as well as prospective shareholders. First of all, what we said in the fourth quarter or least in our earnings call for the fourth quarter, is we established a trough for HDD business in Q1. We also established a trough for the overall company's revenue in Q1 as well. We came into Q1 with over 90% of our business associated with enterprise, desktop and sort of near-line hard drives. We believe those are the most resilient segments from a hard drive standpoint. Where we think there is still going to be continued sort of challenges and stress is the notebook HDD space, where we have the least amount of exposure. There, you're contending with tablet cannibalization or you're contending with SSD cannibalization. We have the least exposure there. The share shifts that occurred over the course of last year, with one of our competitors -- at one of our HDD customers, all those share shifts, to a large degree, are behind us. So that's why we believe we are at a trough point relative to HD business.

Longer-term, we feel very good of our ability to continue to grow share. It's only 2 players, 3 customers, all 3 of them are working towards a balanced sort of supply base. We have mid-30s, in terms of share position. We have leading sort of technology, our execution has been solid. And we have won a number of notebook designs over the course of last year, which will add to our share position as we look out in the next couple of years. Also, near term, we are in a great position in terms of hybrids, to the extent, hybrid drives do well towards the latter part of this year and into '14. We are probably a year ahead, at our leading customer, relative to hybrid solutions as well. So from that standpoint, we'll benefit in that sort of notebook segment. Okay?

Question-and-Answer Session

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay, great. Any misconceptions, you're talking about, from your investor meetings, are more around market share and competitor commentary, I assume?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Well, just the calculator our competitor uses. I'm not sure. I just don't understand how the numbers add up. We, from an HDD standpoint, our business last year grew 40%. And the HDD TAM actually declined. So I'm not sure how the only other player in the market can claim their share grew. So it's just -- there's some bad data that's circulating, and I wanted to make sure that, that was all at least corrected and factual.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Got it. Okay, great. Well, I'll go through, for about 10 minutes of Q&A, then I'll open it to the audience. And I'll follow-up, basically, with the progression that you just kind of laid out. So maybe if we could talk about flash first. On the enterprise side, you've talked about you getting over $10 million quarterly revenue in the space. Can you talk about the progress there over the course of this year? How big can the business be? How quickly do you progress beyond your #1 customer?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Yes, the revenue number is actually bigger than that, relative to our PCIe flash. We hadn't broken it out. All we provided, for clarity, as we did -- an aggregate $237 million in flash-related revenues in 2012, that was both flash storage processors and PCIe flash. Relative to the PCIe flash adapter space, we absolutely expect that to be a significant growth driver for LSI. That market continues to grow. Fusion-io certainly is credited to establishing the category. But what we're starting to see now is more and more people starting to deploy this. Some of the biggest consumers of -- the early consumers of PCIe flash are looking at a second source, are looking at deploying flash in different ways, as well, versus just putting all that flash on a PCIe flash adapter. And we think we're probably in a very unique position to enable people to deploy flash in various different ways, relative to server-side acceleration. Because we've got all the ingredients and then we have a business model that's also very flexible.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

And as you mentioned, you've established yourself as that clear #2?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

That's being echoed to us, consistently, across these top 20, 25 FSI and Web sort of companies.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

And how many customers do you think become the major driving force for that business by year end?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

I think it's small. I think this business is still in its embryonic stage. If you look at the billion dollars that shift in PCIe flash revenues last year, $400 million was all captive. It was all internally grown stuff that external storage systems companies developed or others developed. First generation. The other 50%, 60%, the vast majority was in 3, 4 companies. And those 3, 4 companies are deploying flash as primary storage, it's their software. And I think they're also starting to evolve how they deploy flash and what levels of integration, and so forth. I think broad enterprise adoption of flash is still in its early days. And we're very well-positioned there probably because of the product line, but also the fact that if you -- 70% of the servers out there, x86 servers, use LSI storage in their storage subsystem. And we're leveraging that position to offer flash-based acceleration in those environment as well.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Makes a lot of sense. And your #1 competitor in that space, has seen some weakness in the first half. It looks like it's more customer lumpiness than anything else. But does that surprise you? Do you think there's any competitive aspect to that?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

I can't comment on what they're going through, but we're definitely generating a lot of traction. I kind of alluded to some of that traction earlier, 4 major web cloud companies that are deploying or placing orders for production units. FSI companies doing the same as well. And I think the other dynamic here is some of the more sophisticated users of flash, for server-side acceleration, are looking at different ways of deployment and potentially disaggregating the solution as well. And that's playing to our strengths because we can engage people. We can have a conversation around SandForce-based enterprise SSDs, host bus adapters that connect to those. We can add RAID on top of it, we can add caching or we can sell you any one of our Nytro product lines that compete head-to-head with, let's say, a Fusion or others. No one else has that breadth and no one else can sell at any level of integration, cause it doesn't compromise our business model.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay, great. And then on the client side, where do you think your market share is and where do you think it goes? Is it too hard to say?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

There's no external party that's tracking this, but we think we're clearly #1 or #2. We grew considerable share last year in the client space. We think we're probably #1 or #2 in enterprise, maybe #1. Enterprise SSD is are very fragmented marketplace. There's a lot of different players. There's still a lot of custom designs. I think if we add our custom and our standard, we're probably #1 last year in flash storage processors.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay, great. And then there was some debate, actually, in the SanDisk presentation this morning. If NAND prices stabilized, stay stable for a while, does that lack of elasticity change the adoption curve for SSDs do you think?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

I don't think so. I think, I mean it's -- clearly pricing went up last year and some of the NAND companies slowed down their CapEx deployments to align supply/demand. But I think there's other factors that are going to regulate the adoption. I think what Intel does with the x86 industry, the PC industry, with the Haswell generation here in Q2 and what price points they hit, is going to be a bigger drivers as to how SSD penetration does in PCs. I think, on the PCIe enterprise side, I think it's just the adoption process of people getting comfortable deploying flash in enterprise environments, identifying the right solution for the different applications to take advantage of flash. There's all those things that I think are the initial hurdles versus straight pricing of flash.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. And obviously people have -- the hard drive concerns you've alluded to, but your ASPs are actually higher on the SSD side. And it seems like that transition is ultimately a pretty big help to you.

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Yes, I mean, partly because I think the segment that is facing the most challenge is the notebook HDD segment. Because that has to contend with tablet cannibalization or SSD cannibalization, and there are exposures, almost insignificant. So maybe 5% to 7% of our HDD business. And our share in SSD controllers is substantially higher. It's probably in the mid- to high-30s. And so I'll take that trade any day, ASPs are 2.5:1. Margins are higher, right, in general.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. And that makes a lot of sense. And if you do see a transition towards hybrid, presumably that's an ASP improvement over the notebook business as well?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Slightly, yes.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Is it 2 separate controllers that control each segment or you have it as individual?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

No, it's typically 1.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay, great. And on the Axxia side, the Nokia Siemens announcement is pretty interesting. Your competitors have continued to say that, that the Axxia success, that your biggest customer was a one-off kind of custom. And obviously you've disproven that. At the same time, everybody kind of claims to have every customer and so we try to sort out. Which of these announcements means that somebody's going to get the bulk of the business? Can you help us interpret?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Yes, I mean, to some extent everyone can be right. Because everyone of these system vendors -- there's 5 of them that do wireless infrastructure base station offerings. They all have a generation that's shipping. They have, potentially, 2 generations that are in development. They all have slightly different architectures and different partitioning as well. Some use standard products, some use custom because that's how they differentiate. So every one of them is different, right? I think the way I would, at least, characterize our position is -- relative to our leading OEM, that I think people understand who it is, who started shipping the second half of last year. They are the #1 player in the marketplace. And they are shipping our Axxia in their family. We believe that, in conjunction with even the baseband silicon that we ship, that is multiple generations. There's a tremendous amount of software that's developed, and a huge amount of R&D. So we're very confident in our multigenerational position there. What we announced with Nokia Siemens and the relationship with ARM, and the fruits of that effort, the Axxia 5500, is also multi-generational in nature. That particular announcement will contribute to revenues in the latter part of '14 and '15. So consistent with what we said a year ago, which is we had secured wins and we're in development with 2 of the top 3 wireless infrastructure players. So that as we entered '15, we would have 50% share of data plane, control plane and 40% share of baseband functionality. And that is all on track and I would just end this by saying we feel very good about our prospects at the other major player as well. Just because of Axxia and its disruptive sort of nature.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

All right, that's great. And obviously, your a little bit more of a penetration story in that space, but carrier spending has been tough for a lot of companies. We've actually seen inventory reduction at the base station vendors themselves. Can you just talk about how you see that environment and do you see improvement there?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Yes, I mean it was definitely tough last year. It was very soft. I think, despite that, we saw our go-forward networking business actually grew 5%. Whereas, I think just about every one of our peers in that segment saw pretty significant declines last year. We think inventory levels are low because most of those were all worked off in the second half of last year. And then I think all of you have probably seen some of the commentary that's come out from a number of the carriers that certainly speaks to plans for increasing CapEx over the course of this year. A number of them have made public statements. So we'll see. I think everyone is living on borrowed time to some extent. Just given how oversubscribed networks are and the fact that more and more LTE-capable phones are being deployed. We think it's a matter of time and we're going to be well-positioned to benefit from that.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Great. Well, I'm losing my voice. So let's see if the audience has any questions.

Unknown Analyst

Is the NSN win -- is that replacing existing MIPS processor or PowerPC processor or is it a new program altogether?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Well, as those systems go into the marketplace, once they get developed, go through trials and get deployed in the marketplace, they will be displacing those.

Unknown Analyst

In terms of the flash controllers. The flash manufacturers all point to the -- I think they've done -- the shrink gets much, much harder for these controllers to work well. And then therefore their understanding of their own flash architecture give them an advantage. Can you talk to how you, as a merchant/player, cope with that? And if any help or comfort that you will still be there and a major player 2 or 3 generations down the NAND?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Yes, I mean I don't see the flash, the NAND companies, as competitors, right? They're customers. They're suppliers. We also buy and we'll increasingly buy a lot of NAND because of our PCIe flash adaptor products as well. So we have very good collaborative customer/supplier relationships with just about all of these companies, right? And they are equally motivated to sell raw flash and NAND to as many people that want to buy it as possible. To SSD companies, to PC companies that are deploying SSDs in notebooks and so forth. So to the extent that they want to do that, which they all do, they have to fill their fabs, they also will work very closely with merchant market flash controller players who are enabling people to build SSD. So we're enabling PC companies to build gum stick designs, right? So, yes, we're not concerned about our inability to work intimately with a sufficient a number of NAND players to keep developing new generations of flash towards processors, to do what they need to do for a medium that is getting worse over time.

Unknown Analyst

And on the HDD business, I guess there's a lot of talk about the TAM having hit a low. And also we're being concerned about the broader PC unit, volumes continuing to decline, which -- can you talk about how much conservatism goes into the sort of guidance that you're giving, where the revenues in that old traditional HDD business can go over 12 or 18 months?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Yes, I mean, for the guidance for Q1 and sort of -- at least for a full year, which -- we don't provide guidance, but we've sort of said the HDD TAM in Q1 is going to be flat to slightly down in Q1 relative to Q4. We sort of said, for planning purposes and the point that we made relative to our HDD business being at a trough point in Q1, we've assumed that TAM, for the full year in HDD, is going to be slightly down from last year. As I think about the next 2, 3 years, right? We do believe there's growth. Obviously, it's highly dependent on whether the world's able to revitalize PCs and PC consumption. But we think we're going to see some of that occur. But even if you flat line HDD TAM and say it doesn't grow at all the next 3 years, right? We still feel very good about our ability to grow the business. Because our share is in the mid-30s, the 3 companies still want to balance the supply base. We are ahead on the 25-nanometer transition. We have won some new notebook designs in -- some time over the course of 2012, they'll contribute to revenue. And we're also starting to ship -- we're now shipping across all HDD OEMs.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

I've got my voice back. Can you talk about the timing of those wins and when you might see -- and you mentioned the business bottoming out in Q1 just because notebooks are small, but you actually start to gain share in notebook at that point.

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Yes, I mean, I think on the notebook side, hybrid-based HDDs using LSI SSDs will ship in the second half of this year. So that one is really more dependent on the adoption rate for hybrids. Relative to some of these other notebook wins that I've talked about last year, those are really going to contribute revenues in the late '14 and definitely '15 timeframe.

Unknown Analyst

Can you comment on the recent mix of hybrid versus solid state drive volumes?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

The question is on mix of hybrids versus solid state.

Unknown Analyst

[indiscernible]

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

Yes. I mean, it's honestly anyone's guess, right? I mean, hybrid's have been a disappointment up until now. I think a lot of it because of most of them have been 9-millimeter large form factor. They haven't met some of the resume time specs. But the next generation, this new generation of 7-millimeter hybrids are doing really well. And I think there's certainly a lot of optimism if you talk some of the drive vendors. Just to kind of put the whole market in context, 580 million hard drive shipped last year, 35 million SSD shipped the last year. And SSDs are growing at a rate of probably 60% to 80% per year from a unit standpoint. We're projecting SSD market to get to about 100 million units in 2015, up from 35 million units in 2012. If the HDD market this year is going to be flat to slightly down, 560 million to 580 million, then depending on what happens in 2014, what percentage of that could be hybrids? I've heard numbers that are in the tens of millions of units, right? 30 million, 40 million, 50 million in terms of penetration. Which, relative to notebook drives, which makes up probably 60% of that number, 60% of the 580 million, 600 million number, is at least a 10% penetration. But that's just a pure guess to a large degree. Cause I don't know where the pricing is going to be and how PC OEMs are going to adopt hybrids and how they're going to price hybrids relative to SSD-based SKUs. But to your question, I mean, for us we'll take an SSD win over a hybrid. Although our hybrid share is going to be very high for the first year or so, just based on our position I think. But the hybrid market's going to be fairly small, but we'll take an SSD win all the time because our share in SSD is substantially greater than notebook HDD share.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Any questions?

Unknown Analyst

When you speak to NAND players, they always argue that knowing their media make them better suited design a better controller than a merchant silicon vendor. So what did you answer to that? And just in terms of system architecture, because I have a view -- where do you think caching belongs? Is it done on the server, as in appliance or in the array because then everybody claims to have flash, but it's always confusing, where's most of the value added?

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

On your first question. I think what we're seeing, we're seeing all 6 NAND companies engage merchant market standard flash storage processors. We're seeing a number of them do custom flash storage processors which we're doing with them, where they have selected certain segments in the SSD marketplace, where they want to differentiate with unique things. We're even finding ourselves working with them, closely, to have common features across their custom versus their standard implementation. Again, which is something we can only do. I think it's very difficult for a NAND company to be developing a logic process that is moving at the cadence that you have to move, and support all the different SSD segments, as well as their OEM channels and their distribution channels. So that's why I think we're experiencing what we are, which all these guys are leveraging both internal and external capacity to fill out their SSD product line, and we're not having any issues working at intimate levels engaging them on us, right? The one that is the largest, in terms of captive, is Samsung. That is a pretty well known thing. But we're doing well there also, in terms of custom implementation. Your second question, on caching. Yes, I mean, I think caching can be anywhere. It depends on who you are and what product you're selling. So we're seeing external storage systems companies, I won't name names, that sell a lot of fans, buy and deploy flash, cache, all-flash array appliances that they stick in front of their array. It's all about attacking storage latency and addressing what is becoming a big problem in data center environments, right? We're swimming in microprocessor cores and performance. Flash is finally attacking the bottleneck of storage, and we're starting to bring data closer and closer to where the application is, right? Which is really bringing about all these opportunities for caching. We're seeing caching across all those different application areas.

Joseph Moore - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

We are out of time, thank you very much for your time.

Abhijit Y. Talwalkar

All right, great. Thank you.

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