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Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI)

Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

February 26, 2013 4:20 pm ET

Executives

David A. Zinsner - Chief Financial Officer and Vice President of Finance

Unknown Analyst

All right. Just a quick note on disclosure. First, our disclosure. Please note that all important disclosures, including personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures appear on the Morgan Stanley website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures.

So with that out of the way, I'm very pleased to announce from Analog Devices, CFO, Dave Zinsner; and Head of IR, Ali Husain. Thanks, guys, for coming.

David A. Zinsner

Sure, thanks.

Question-and-Answer Session

Unknown Analyst

So it seems like you guys just reported, it was a January quarter, it seems like you've seen the same patterns in other analog companies. Bookings were weak in the October, November time frame and have since gotten better. Can you talk about how you see that? Where do you think we are in the potential for a semiconductor pickup based on inventories?

David A. Zinsner

Yes. So as you mentioned, we had I'd say weaker orders in November, when we looked back on it. December was clearly weaker particularly because of the shutdowns that occurred at the end of December. And then for the first week of January, again, it was -- it started off kind of weak. But then as the month wore on in January, I'd say things just continually improved. Orders continually got stronger. We kind of went through the lunar new year with a little bit of weakness in Asia, but that picked -- bounced right back and things have been very strong. Our guidance is somewhat reflective of the fact that we do think that, at least as we see it, the kind of cyclical downturn that occurred looks like we kind of hit bottom and have recovered off the bottom. And now it's just a question of whether that's sustainable or not.

Unknown Analyst

Yes. I guess the thing that's puzzled me, and I've gotten this a little bit wrong as we've gotten through the last few quarters, but I felt like this time last year, when there was a pickup, you had just seen a strong inventory reduction from a bunch of your customers. It was very clear that you had the potential for kind of a catch-up base, as you caught up to consumption. I felt like we actually had that, but demand was weak and so that didn't look as exciting as we thought it would earlier in the year. And then now, if I look back at the last couple of quarters, I mean, I felt we entered that period with customer inventories being very lean after several quarters of reduction. So did they get even leaner? Or was it actual demand that fell off? Or just how do you see -- how did that industrial trend get so soft and kind of come back so quickly?

David A. Zinsner

Well, I think it was a combination of, I think, demand got a little weaker, and I think they did try to lean out inventories a little bit further. If you look at kind of the way last year kind of progressed, we kind of had a kind of a correction in the first quarter. It seemed to recover in the second quarter. But I think as we -- as you got into the back half of the year, confidence levels of our customers, which is kind of collectively all the major manufacturers worldwide, I think it got worse. People were worried about what was going on in the U.S. around the fiscal policy. People were worried about Europe because of the issues around southern countries within Europe. There was kind of political change over in China, and a lot of things kind of got halted because of that. So there was just uncertainty across the board in almost every geography. And as a result, most of our customers just kind of cranked their inventories down and slowed down programs and slowed down projects. And if there were build-outs that were going to occur via capital spend, those things got pushed out. And when all those things happened, that ends up being kind of a bit more impactful when you're way at the far end of the supply chain. And so as a result, we saw our business kind of fall off. We had some things that kind of went in our favor in the back half of the year, that kind of kept things a little bit going. But when we kind of struck into the first quarter, it certainly rolled off. And then I think that's the question now for this year is we're back to this kind of situation. We had a first quarter correction, things are recovering. We think we'll have a good second quarter. And it's -- the big question is will we now get the kind of confidence that I think is necessary to really have a decent improvement in the business?

Unknown Analyst

And as to the first statement that you think you're shipping to end demand right now, I know it's hard to be certain.

David A. Zinsner

I think it's difficult to determine at the moment. I clearly think that we weren't in the first [indiscernible]. And in the industrial side, we weren't in the fourth quarter. It does feel like if industrial is up kind of meaningfully this quarter, really the principal driver of the recovery for us sequentially, you would think that we're starting to get back to a level that's closer to equilibrium. There could be customers that are working inventories down further. But I think in general, most people are kind of now at a level of, okay, we're going to kind of keep the status quo, see how things are going. And if the business recovers, end demand starts to recover, we'll start to bring back inventory levels and demand.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. And then how do you think about your own inventory levels with regards to that? And the distribution channel where you took down dollars in inventory distribution, the days went up a little. And it seems like if I'm an end customer, there's enough inventory in front of me that I can kind of wait for demand, which is -- could be good news because if the demand comes through, then you'll see a strong third month to the quarter which [indiscernible]

David A. Zinsner

Yes, and I think that's kind of reflective -- our lead times are 4 weeks. It's certainly reflected in there. Our inventory is kind of north of 120 days. That was actually -- I think we're at similar levels last year at that time, too. The difference for us this time around is we cranked utilization up more significantly last year and built inventory with the expectation that we were coming off of what we thought was the bottom and we're going to have a pretty strong recovery. This time around, I think we'll be a little bit more conservative about it. We're going to tick up utilization but it's going to be very small, probably from kind of mid-50s to the high 50s. That's going to have the effect of bringing inventories on our balance sheet in absolute dollar terms down. And of course, given that business can be up, it's going to be a meaningful drop in the days of inventory. So that's a little bit of a different tact than we took last time. Inventories distribution is, if you look at it kind of on a look-back basis in terms of weeks of inventory, it's up to 8 weeks of inventory. But in absolute dollars, we haven't been this low, I think, I don't know, like several years, right? So this is a very lean environment for us from a distributor perspective. And based on the order flow that we're seeing from distributors and kind of our strategy around having enough inventory to meet demand, I'm going to expect that we're going to start to see a little bit of a creep-up in the absolute dollars of inventory this quarter. It might actually be down in terms of days in inventory. But certainly, in absolute dollars, we think it will be up in the second quarter. But as you said, I think we're in a pretty good position to meet demand regardless of what that demand looks like at 120 days of inventory or plus. But not so significant that if business does start to recover we start to see some amendment in the business. We won't be constrained in terms of our opportunities, you could start to see some real leverage in the P&L. We're -- our gross margins will go up this quarter, but not significantly. If we do start to see a pretty meaningful ramp in demand, we start to crank utilization. We'll start to see some really good leverage on the gross margin side.

Unknown Analyst

Yes, I mean, I was quite impressed by where margins have been, actually, given where utilizations are. So you mentioned -- a couple of minutes ago, you mentioned that the bookings pattern was good, there's a little bit of weakness around the lunar new year. But in general, I mean, the bottom line is kind of month-by-month things keep picking up consistently with that view that this -- it feels like a bottoming process [indiscernible].

David A. Zinsner

Correct.

Unknown Analyst

Perfect. And then your Industrial business at 45% of revenues was down about 12% last year. And that's certainly a lot more than I thought it would be down. And I had a pretty conservative macro view on what the year would look like, but I felt like your medical devices group would sort of insulate that and energy and some of the other -- there's -- everything is a little bit cyclical, but I felt like different cycles are hit at different times, and it seemed like it all kind of uniformly came down, and do you think can it all uniformly go back up?

David A. Zinsner

I think you probably can expect that actually. And usually, it does. I'm kind of with you, I actually didn't think it would drop to the level that it ended up dropping. But I do think it was clearly kind of inventory management at our customers and some pushouts in terms of capital spend. This business is 60,000 customers. It's very distributed. Most customers don't buy a significant amount of volume on an individual basis. They might buy 10,000 units. Most of the products are older, and the customers have been very loyal to not only the brand of ADI but that specific part and what it does in their given applications. So it's not like we're seeing share shifts. The ASPs are very stable in that business. In some cases, they actually go up. So there's no dynamic or no nefarious dynamic going on there. It clearly is about how inventory levels have moved around based on customers' feelings about the world. And I do think at this point now, given that it is down so significantly, our end customers are not down so significantly, that it comes back to normalized levels. And if we can start to see some capital spend go on in the world, it should have a pretty good recovery.

Unknown Analyst

Well it's definitely what our investors want exposure to right now, I think. And I guess one of the pushbacks I got when I -- in terms of why medical was weak, it had a lot of -- it's the same infrastructure mindset in China, in particular, that sort of had driven all those businesses. You had factories and hospitals and infrastructure just getting built and it all came to stop in one set [ph]. Is it possible to isolate out the impact of China from all this? I know your -- the business you ship in to China actually grew, but other devices that shipped in other regions into China.

David A. Zinsner

Yes, that's a difficulty we have because we sell to most of the larger industrial companies around the world. They end up shipping, I think, a fair amount of their product into China. It's hard for us to really track what goes into China versus what goes into other locations. But certainly, China is impactful to that business directly but also indirectly to our customers in other parts of the world.

Unknown Analyst

Okay, great. And then moving over to the communications business, it's about 19% of revenues. That was weak for you actually last quarter and continues to be a little bit weak. It's actually an area where I'm pretty bullish.

David A. Zinsner

Good.

Unknown Analyst

[indiscernible] last year. But I feel like there were visible signs of customer inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter and there's visible signs that demand can actually come back. What's your feeling now? I mean, do you get the visibility from anybody at, or is that -- you sort of hoping that that's case but don't see it yet?

David A. Zinsner

I mean, well, one of the reasons why we didn't quite hit the midpoint of our guidance and came in at the lower end was really because of the communications business. And we did kind of feel like we were going to have a pretty good quarter for comm, it ended up being down, which was a little bit of a surprise to us. And what our best read on it is, one, capital spending wasn't really robust last quarter for comm. And two, it did look like some of our customers did take the opportunity to clean up their balance sheet for the end of December, and that had kind of a secondary effect on that business. As we kind of -- and we have to be cautious about how we read these things because I think our customers generally are almost as confused as we are sometimes about when the capital spend is going to come and when we're going to start to see a pickup in the business. But the read that we get from our customers, which are the base station manufacturers and the comm -- the wireline comm guys, is that things will start to recover in the back half of our fiscal year, which is our kind of third and fourth fiscal quarter. And it's likely to be up a little bit this coming quarter, but we really won't see that, the lift, until the back half of the year. And there's a lot of kind of anecdotal discussions that some of the carriers in the U.S. are talking about in terms of their capital spending, what we're hearing from China in terms of their approach to the next build-out of their infrastructure. And all that stuff is supposed to kind of intersect in the back half of the year. So we'll have to see how it goes. We certainly are going to be cautious about what we do both in terms of managing our inventory levels and our OpEx and not assume that's going to come. But we're cautiously optimistic that that's what's going to happen in the back half of the year.

Unknown Analyst

I mean, is it a fair assessment that that's how all of us have sort of felt for the last 12 months? Is it always 1 quarter or 2 away or...

David A. Zinsner

Yes, I would say, and I think everybody can...

Unknown Analyst

[indiscernible]

David A. Zinsner

Yes, yes. But I would say that the networks are absolutely creaking right now. And the carriers have done a lot to kind of milk the network as much as they can to make the network work. That hasn't always been successful. There's been a couple of times where that hasn't worked out in certain carriers' cases. And in general, the data speeds are pretty bad. So we do expect that over time, they're going to have to spend money to improve the network so that we can all kind of work on our iPhones and what have you. The other thing that I think will happen that's starting in kind of the early stages at this point, but I think will ramp over time, is this kind of move towards kind of smaller form factors with less power like small cells and those kind of things. And for ADI, we're a little bit more focused in our successes is more dictated on how many radios get sold versus how many systems get installed. So as things kind of migrate to some architecture that includes small cell, that should have the effect of significantly increasing the radio count of what gets sold per year. For us, we're almost agnostic to whether it's kind of small cell or large cell based on dollar content. So if the unit volume growth is significant, that could be very significant for us in terms of a tailwind to the business.

Unknown Analyst

Okay, that's great. I think that's an area of concern for a lot of people in other comm-centric mediums that have faced these exposures. Within autos, so autos is almost reverse of everything else because it's been great for the last couple of years and a little bit weak the last quarter or 2. What's your perception of that weakness? Is that just the disruption that we saw in the supply chain last quarter and is it going to be short term?

David A. Zinsner

Yes, I think a little bit. I mean, we had some kind of mix going on where some programs were rolling off, others were delayed in terms of when they rolled on. And I think that also was a little bit of a headwind to the automotive business. This quarter, we're suspecting it to have a pretty nice sequential improvement. I think the underlying kind of macro drivers to auto that we're really making a go for -- I think in 2007, our business was $225 million or so. And I don't know this year what we'll do but let's say it's in the $450 million to $500 million range. This business has grown significantly over the last few years. And the drivers are, I think, everyone knows about it, but dollar content, electrification of the car has been pretty significant, a lot of technology going into safety systems, both passive and active safety systems, a lot of semiconductors going into infotainment. And now as the car becomes maybe more fuel-efficient, more power-efficient be it on a hybrid or electric vehicle or has some other spec technology like start-stop kind of technology, that requires a lot of semiconductor and a lot of analog content to make those products or those applications work properly. And we just kind of continue to see an opportunity to have increasing dollar content in the vehicles in the next several years. And regardless of whether the unit volumes are up or down, I think that, that is going to fundamentally trump the unit volume and should really provide a lot of tailwinds to that business.

Unknown Analyst

I feel like, as you mentioned, the investors are starting to look for that theme growing dollar content. So it's actually kind of interesting if you look at the various semiconductor vendors with auto exposure. It's actually pretty clear that you and Linear Tech are doing something different than other people because your growth rate has been a lot higher, both companies. Is that just a function, you think, of focusing design count on that market a little bit more than you did 5, 10 years ago? Or is there some function in being in the right place?

David A. Zinsner

What we've been doing over time is trying to create a more balanced approach towards the business where we have this kind of long tail horizontal market merely sold through distribution. And we kind of continued to focus resources at that marketplace. But we have shifted some of our resources towards being more application-focused to focus on application-specific products as well. And one of the earlier initiatives into the application-specific area was in the auto space. And that kind of predates even when I started, so I don't recall, 2007 I think, they really started to have an active focus, really understand the ecosystem on the automotive space, the whole system, what areas we thought we could be successful in, what technologies that the automakers or the module makers may not even appreciate may be necessary to drive the next generation of applications within automotive. And we focused in that area and we put development efforts in that area and we talked to the customers. And over time, I think we built up a really solid business. Now I don't know what every other competitor out there has done in that space, they may or may not have done that, but that's been our approach and it's turned out to be, I think, fairly successful.

Unknown Analyst

That's great. And your assessment of the inventories that are carried at the automotive guys is that they are pretty lean and then...

David A. Zinsner

Yes, I mean, well, they generally carry their inventories pretty lean. A lot of them operate in kind of what they call VMI or vendor management inventory approach, so they literally just pull when they need product. And so they are not really in a position whether they build a lot of inventory of our parts. So we see a lot less -- it's a lot less cynical in terms of inventory cycles, and it's more a function of just more programmatically, when thing -- when programs roll off or roll on, that has a bigger driver towards whether it will be successful or not.

Unknown Analyst

Okay, great. Well, I'll just -- I'll finish my trip through the revenue stream and then we'll open up to the audience. But with consumer, you had alluded to some product cycles in the back half of the year. We did see those, but the business is still down year-on-year. Can you talk about what the issues are there, and if you'll see those product cycles recur kind of in the back half of this year?

David A. Zinsner

So the consumer space is one of these areas where we to -- we, as a company, have to be selective given the DNA of -- our devices have to be more on the kind of technology forefront. We tend not to be the lowest cost producer and we tend to lead with technology. And then on the consumer space, given that the cycles are fast and costs can sometimes be the more dominant driver or determiner which vendor a customer chooses, we tend to be in sometimes and out sometimes. And I think in some cases in the last few years, we've been out more than we've been in. We put someone new into that business, I don't know, maybe about 1.5 years or 2 years ago. He's been kind of doing the same approach we really -- we did in the auto space years before, but really focusing on what technologies we have, where we can differentiate, where we have, what we think are proprietary capabilities in that space and really focusing our resources on that. And there is a little bit of a time lag in terms of taking all that effort and really creating a business and then really seeing kind of the fruits of that. And in the meantime, there's a little bit of dribbling out of the old stuff that we got years ago that we haven't reinvested in. So I think that's really what's going on. We'll continue to be selective. But I have a feeling over time we're going to start to see more momentum in that business than we've seen in the past. It may not be this year, but I certainly think over the next few years, we'll find opportunities to be successful in that space with -- in areas where technology will really matter. And we are already starting to see that. And I think that's one of the things that helped out in the back half of 2012. I expect that we'll probably see something similar to that in 2013, and then we'll just kind of see how it goes.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. Great. Let me see if there's any questions from the audience. If not, I'll keep going.

Unknown Analyst

Most semiconductor companies are reporting very low levels of channel inventory. So I'm interested in your thoughts as to whether you think that's a new normal, so structurally lower or whether it's just a reflection of where we are in the cycle?

David A. Zinsner

Yes. I kind of feel like the inventory levels at distribution are highly dependent on kind of in-demand and lead times. And as soon as lead times stretch out a little bit and end demand gets robust, they suddenly throw out the old model and bring in a new model, which is carry higher levels of inventory to make sure they aren't caught short. And I suspect that will happen when that happens. It just so happens that over the last 18 months or so, there hasn't been a big stimulus to the end demand side of things and lead times have been relatively short, so they haven't had to panic that much about where they're going to get their products. But mark my word, as soon as there is one little slip and one little part stretches out in terms of lead time, they'll suddenly have a new whole new approach to inventory levels and they'll bring them up.

Unknown Analyst

What would you want distribution inventory to be, if it were under your control? I mean, you have this inventory that never really declines in value. You can only lose business if you don't have the product to support it. So I mean, why not carry a high level of inventory?

David A. Zinsner

At distribution?

Unknown Analyst

At distribution and on your own balance sheet, why not?

David A. Zinsner

Yes, and I think that is the approach we take. I mean, we generally carry 100 -- I mean, our goal is really to carry 110 days, 100 to 110 days of inventory. I think if you look at us relative to most of the competitors, that's a little high. And we do that because we try to keep the lead times short. One of the things we think we differentiate ourselves on is we don't run into -- we try not to run into situations where we drive our lead times out 12 weeks and we let the -- we give customers confidence that we're going to be able to provide the part when and if they're going to need it.

Unknown Analyst

And in the distribution side, you don't recognize it as revenue anyway, [indiscernible] why not?

David A. Zinsner

And we take little risk on it because most of the parts are very long life cycle parts, and so it's not like we have obsolescence risk that some customers -- or competitors that are more focused in the consumer space where cycles are faster. They obviously take more risk to do that. And that is our approach. Now I think that the goal would be to have about 8 weeks of inventory at distribution by virtue of the fact that business is down, they are at 8 weeks. When business recovers next quarter, they're likely not to be 8 weeks. But I think over time, we would rather see them at 8. We'd like to be kind of in that 110 days or maybe slightly lower than that. I wouldn't want to get too low because you do run the risk of stretching out lead times. And once lead times stretch out, not only do you have serious issues with just relationships with customers which can be problematic, but you completely lose visibility as to what's going on because then you start to have double ordering and people hoarding and then that...

Unknown Analyst

Of course, that's what we all want.

David A. Zinsner

Yes, you guys want that but I don't want that.

Unknown Analyst

Understood. Any other questions from the audience? You had alluded to gross margins and you put up a pretty good gross margin number for the utilization that you had at 64%, with mid-50s type of utilization. Do you think that signals that you can get to new highs in gross margin? And I know you've done a lot of things, you personally and the company have done a lot of things to improve gross margin. Are there still, I know there's smaller things now, but are there still things you can do to kind of keep moving up through the cycle gross margin?

David A. Zinsner

Yes, I think so. I mean, clearly, we're happy that our gross margins at kind of lower utilizations has been -- we typically run -- I think, I can't remember the last time we were in the 50s, but I think it was in 2009, if I'm not correct -- if I'm not mistaken. So it's -- I think, just to know that we're now -- our low point is higher than the high points that we used to have in prior years I think is a pretty significant accomplishment. We are doing a lot of little things now to improve the gross margins further. I don't think there are big structural changes that need to happen in terms of closing fabs or what-have-you that would move our margins up significantly. But there are a lot of things that we can do that are subtle around pricing and around cost that I think can help improve the gross margin for the next cycle. But first, what I want to do is get a recovery going and start to see our -- the company improve back to the levels that we were operating in, in kind of 2011, early part of 2012. And when that happens, then we're -- then I think we'll be ready to talk about numbers that are higher than that.

Unknown Analyst

Yes, fair enough. And to the extent that if industrial does lead the way out and is stronger, that obviously helps gross margin?

David A. Zinsner

Absolutely, it's unofficial. Industrial, on a cost basis, have much better margins. But on a -- on top of that, most of that, the internal manufacturing is in industrial businesses. And so if industrial recovers, we get huge fall-through and huge absorption benefit based on the internal manufacturing model.

Unknown Analyst

Okay, great. And my last question is going to be on cash. You guys have a lot of it. I don't think the market is giving you full credit for it. You had the highest dividend yield and now TI is obviously taking a much bigger stance in terms of returning 100% of the cash flow to shareholders. Where do you guys stand now in terms of thinking about dividends versus buybacks versus other uses of cash?

David A. Zinsner

So you may have noticed that we increased our dividend last quarter by, I think, it was 13%, right? So we continue to be very committed on the dividend. I think historically we had been paying out about 40% of our earnings in dividends. We've been kind of trying to push that up. I think if you look over the next few quarters, it's probably going to be like 60%, it's what it's going to end up being of our free cash flow. It's going to be out in dividend. So we have definitely tried to be, tried to lead, I guess, with dividends to improve shareholder returns. We still have a buyback program, we're still committed to the buyback program. I would say one of -- maybe the one difference we have now than we've had perhaps in periods beforehand was that we do have kind of a -- we do look at the price of the stock relative to kind of historical averages. And when the stock falls below those historical averages, that's when we tend to take an opportunity to buy the stock versus the old model, which I think a lot of other companies employed as well, which is you ended up buying when times were good because you felt the world was better, and that ended up being the high price for buying the stock right back. We try to take it and hopefully take advantage of the volatility in the stock and buybacks on the lows. But I think you'll see over time we'll be very good purchasers of our stock. Then the rest of it, the cash, which I don't think we'll have a significant need for, but there is some M&A that we do from time to time. It tends to be more tuck-in oriented. And but those -- the price tags on those can be at varying levels, so we'll hopefully take some opportunity, some of the cash in a place where we think we can get a really good ROI on it for technology that it would make more sense to buy it than build it internally. And those are the kind of 3 uses.

Unknown Analyst

And for the filings you have, over $3 a share of that cash that is actually in the U.S., is not -- there's no -- is not subject to repatriation?

David A. Zinsner

Yes, I guess so. $10 is [indiscernible]. It's high-order math.

Unknown Analyst

So I mean, that's not a factor of you can return...

David A. Zinsner

You know what, there's no -- there's almost no limitation to the cash. I mean, we have $1.1 billion of cash on U.S., we have another $500 million revolver that's untouched that if we needed to use cash we could certainly get at it. So I think there's plenty of flexibility. The U.S. has plenty of opportunities to raise more cash if they wanted to do buybacks and stuff. That certainly isn't going to be an impediment to anything we do on that capital structure side. It's just more a function of hopefully being smart about when we do make the purchases of the stock and try to buy it at low points.

Unknown Analyst

Great, all right. Well, thank you very much for your time. Appreciate it.

David A. Zinsner

Thanks.

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