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HomeAway, Inc. (NASDAQ:AWAY)

Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

February 26, 2013 16:55 ET

Executives

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Lynn Atchison - Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

To start with a disclosure I am Scott Devitt, Morgan Stanley’s internet analyst. Please note that all important disclosures including the HomeAway’s disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures appear on the Morgan Stanley public website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures or at the registration desk. I am happy to have Brian Sharples, CEO and Co-Founder of HomeAway and Lynn Atchison, the CFO of HomeAway and we’ll dig into all the things that are relevant Brian in the business quickly, but just for anyone in the audience that may not been familiar with the model, why don’t give the two, three minutes on what you do?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Sure. I know on Cramer, a couple of days ago, he was talking about the company on TV and he said god, I love this company, I know this company really well, they are in the high end timeshare business. And it turns out that if you didn’t laugh in your own we do, but anyway we are not in the timeshare business, we are in the vacation rentals business, it’s a very old industry in the Europe, in the U.S. and around the world. We all rent ski homes and beach homes and things like that. Well, we are the biggest marketing channel in the world for those types of properties. We operate in the U.S., Europe, South America, Asia, moving into Eastern Europe, we have about 720,000 listings roughly. We have the highest amount of consumer traffic in the world for what we do, the most properties, most of our business today runs on a subscription model where people pay on an annual basis to list on our sites and more and more we are moving towards more of a e-commerce based transaction model. The future of the business is really enabling our industry to work a little bit more like hotels do now.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

And so we’ll go from an overview of the business and directly into the weeds, so you have had several different businesses that you have been integrating on to a global platform when I say businesses different units of HomeAway. And you have begun implementing tiered pricing as well, because the business is subscription-based. Tiered pricing doesn’t show up immediately in numbers, but now we have 75% of listings on the global platform and you have tiered pricing, you have bundled product offerings as well. We are those that are listing their house can list on mobile sites. One of the things I think investors have been anticipating is the possibility that, that leads to some sort of revenue inflection and that 2013 could be the year. It seems as if the fourth quarter was an early indication if that maybe the case. So, with that in mind, where do you think we are now with to a pricing bundled product offerings and what 2013 will look like in terms of being that year of inflexion?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Yeah, I mean when we went public a year and a half ago, there were a lot of things we said we were going to do. I mean, it was already a very attractive business at the time, but we were investing pretty heavily in both tiered pricing and putting our network together. And there was a lot of work to do that. And both of them have worked extremely well. So, we now have a global network that’s the largest in the world. Not all of our sites are on it, but the major ones are. We enabled our sites with tiered pricing, because frankly, we were charging too little for what we did, but rather than raising subscription prices every year on our customers, we chose and said to let the market choose its own pricing level by creating different tiers on our sites, and because as Scott referred to, because we are a subscription business, when somebody buys a subscription from us, that revenue was actually deferred out over the life of the subscription. So, what we see internally before you guys see it public commerce is we see sales numbers.

So, when we launched tiered pricing in a site, we see the impact on sales, which has been hugely positive, but you actually don’t see the full impact in revenue for 12 months. So, we have been telling everybody for the last year, but don’t worry we see the sales numbers, things are going great. And you will see that come in the revenue as time goes on. So, to go four quarters ago, our ASP on a revenue basis was 3%, went to 5% the next quarter, went to 7% the next quarter, and it has went to 11% in the next quarter and it’s not done yet. So, with respect to the sites that are enabled with tiered pricing, it’s about 75% of our listings. We absolutely are seeing an inflection point in revenue growth, but remember we have 25% that still is not. So, there is some other elements of our business that won’t come into play until we have got them on the platform as well.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

So, the talk is well about the bundling initiatives in terms of selling across platforms and related to that question, one of the questions that we get quite a lot in the U.S. anyway is the reason for having these separate brands, VRBO and HomeAway and the value that, that actually brings to you as a company, and then the reason why you keep them separate from a consumer standpoint?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Yeah, we run multiple brands at HomeAway. It’s a little bit historical, because when we built the business, we acquired all the leading sites in the U.S. and Europe, because we knew this was a network play business. It was a win or take, all kind of a market. And so we went after it. And so we round up with look if we built it from scratch, maybe we would have one brand in every country, but in several countries we have the number one and the number two leading brands. And in both cases by having two brands, by owing your next biggest competitor, you do get a much higher share of consumer traffic. So, for example, the two biggest sites in U.S. are HomeAway and VRBO. We owned both of them. If we were to close one or the another the traffic from one wouldn’t necessarily go to the other. We have people who prefer VRBO and we have people who prefer HomeAway.

So, what we are trying to offer to owners is exposure to the most traveler traffic possible. And by owning multiple brands, we really dominate that space. So, the trick for us was really to make it seamless to the owner to get all these sites operating on one platform. So, as an owner, I could just click the radio button and say I either want to buy this site VRBO or I want to buy all of HomeAway’s U.S. distribution, which is all other sites in U.S. or I want to buy their global distribution. And so that’s something we just turned on in the back half of last year, any uptake on that products been tremendous, because all people have to do is pay us a little more money and click a button. If we didn’t know new sites, a lot of these consumers be saying well, what’s the next biggest site out there that I can advertise on, maybe it’s the TripAdvisor or somebody else. Well, it’s pretty difficult for a consumer to go and manage a relationship with two different companies as they have to update calendars on two different sites and they have to update photos in two different states. And so by us, essentially acquiring all the leading sites in the world and then putting one platform behind them, we have now made the process of distribution really simple. And so if you want more distribution, the first thing we are going to do is expand your reach within our system not go try to find another competitor, because it’s just a click away to do that.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

Is there also a benefit as it relates to search engine driven traffic of having separate rents in terms of populating?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Well, there is. So, I mean if you were to go back and say over the years what was HomeAway’s secret sauce that got us here, it may not be the secret sauce that necessarily drives the business entirely going forward, but it really was as we are okay to go is we are very good at it. So, anywhere around the world, if you type in location and vacation rentals, you are going to find that HomeAway’s site typically comes up number one and number two, and in some cases number three. We want to be number one obviously everybody wants to do that, but if you didn’t have a second brand, then somebody else is number two. And just statistically when somebody goes into a search engine and looks at a set of results from Google, some people click on number one, some people click on number two, some people click on number three. So, without owning multiple brands, you would certainly lose some of that volume without a doubt.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

One of the other initiatives, you have put in place is allowing for online booking capability historically it was a phone conservation in a credit card or a money order. And so kind of bringing e-commerce into the back end of the engine how is that going and what do you think that, that potentially does if anything to increasing velocity of transactions?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Yeah. So, it’s a pretty corky industry. If you’ve ever rented a house, you know it’s not as simple as just running a room at the four seasons, well you know what the room is, you know what the brand is every house is different. So, travelers have questions that they need to ask, as we have power of how bigger the rooms close to the beach. And owners really care about who stays in their proprieties. So, they want to kind of assess you out a little bit. So, this industry has always been much more of a classified advertising industry. In fact, the other big reason for HomeAway’s success is that we didn’t get lowered by technology. And in the early days, we didn’t chase online booking, because we knew what owners and travelers really wanted with to have a conversation. So, we just really became an intermediary to bring people together.

What we have now found over the years is that as the web gets more sophisticated and people get more comfortable buying online that we think we can really accelerate the business by adding safe payments in online transactions into the mix. The consumers would like to pay with credit cards. So, they would like to pay with direct debit. They would like to be able to go back to a site and see a receipt for what they have done etcetera. So, a big effort we have underway right now, and it’s the number one thing we are doing in 2013, it’s e-commerce enablement of our properties in our back end. That doesn’t mean that people still can’t have conversations.

So, the way the booking system works in our vision of the future is that you would be able to go online like a hotel and you would be able to click on a property and you would be able to get a code back and book it. But the system will come back and say okay that property is reserved, but the owner now has 24 hours to confirm this reservation. And the owner can do what they want, some owners will choose to turn that functionality off and just let it book through, but the majority will still want to have a conversation with somebody and so we’re going to allow for that to happen. So, we have launched that payment functionality in the U.S. We have just recently launched it in France, Germany and UK, so it’s relatively new. We already have 53,000 properties out of our 700 and change that are now payments enabled and that number is going to continue to grow every quarter.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

The – one of the – I think areas that could potentially influence on trust is social integration. And you’ve integrated reviews not necessarily the social attributes in terms of driving identity based on the history of particular users before you are able to user review information, many of them friends with somebody and they are friends with somebody, I maybe able to trust that you need to. How do you think about social to the extent that it’s relevant for HomeAway versus the user reviews that do you now and the relevancy that that builds over the long period of time?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

I think about coming into play over time we actually acquired a company that was the leading player and trying to create social tools for the vacation rental industry. But one of the thing I understands we have experimented a lot of social stuff including advertising on Facebook including making our owners – giving our owners the ability to move information and post information out to Facebook friends you now have the ability to register the use on our site, do that through Facebook Connect and we can serve this whether or not one of your friends have rented a property or wrote a review all those things.

But in our business it’s just not having a big impact and the reason is demographic. And I know a lot of you who are out in the West Coast know about (Arabian Deed), very different customer bases today where they are dealing with a much younger demographic a more Facebook enabled demographic. We are in the family vacation business that’s 85% of what we do and age ranges are really and kind of 40s, 50s and 60s that’s what we are dealing with owners and travelers. And when we survey those people, yeah a lot of them have Facebook account about 50% of them do. But then if you drill down and see how often they use it, really it’s not often they’re not those kind of people.

So, when we put up tools here login with Facebook Connect and enable your views through Facebook Connect, very small percentage of the people use that. And it’s just a demographic issue. So, over time as people who are now 20 and 30 should they continue to use Facebook and put all their information through that or somebody doesn’t come along with a better mousetrap, then probably 5, 10 years from now it will become more relevant for us. So, our strategy at the moment is to build out all those social tools, introduce them, we are not in any rush to do it because they are not big drivers of our business, but I think they might be down the road.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

One last question on e-commerce integration you referenced PayPal quite a bit in terms of potentials for penetration currently I think there is like 53,000 listings that are active out of the 720,000 or so that you say that you have now…

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Yeah.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

What’s the penetration ramp in terms of how you think about it over the next couple of years of e-commerce enabled listings?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Yeah, so we referenced PayPal because we have our COO, Brent Bellm was the former CEO of PayPal in Europe and we have a number of (indiscernible) on our team at the company and a lot of them are at eBay when they went through their whole e-commerce transition, because eBay was also kind of a wild west classified marketplace that’s ultimately moved to secure online payments. And so we actually know the data from eBay. It took about three years for them to get to 35%, 40% penetration and so that’s been our goal. We launched last year, we would like to get to 35%-40% within the three year time. We would like to beat that, we think we probably can because they did it a long time ago and we are sure we’ll get there a real quicker.

What we also know is that once it got to that penetration level meaning that you start to get to a point where almost half of the listings on the site have it and the others don’t, you do private things like all of a sudden you put buttons on the site that allow people to sort and filter by people who accepts secure payments. And then once you do that it flips pretty quick. So, eBay actually went pretty quickly after that from 35%, 40% penetration to what they are today which is somewhere in the 80% above range. So, that’s above what we’re looking at a company I don’t think overnight we are going get 700,000 listings e-commerce enabled especially when you look at a lot of our owners again in their 60s even. And they don’t – they are not comfortable with using different types of technology. But I think we can get to 40% to 50% penetration rate within the next couple of years. And then at that point hopefully we will see it really accelerate. We would like to get it as quick as possible things were the best things for the consumer for sure.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

And you also launching pay per booking in this summer of 2013, that seems to be targeted mostly at the property management from listing opportunity maybe a little less so or maybe a lot less or so target of that are going to be demographic I am guessing a lot less so based on commentary that you have made. So, talk about that product where it is targeted what that opens up in terms of marketing?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Yes, so what pay per booking is simply that today you pay an annual subscription fee and then all the business you get, you get and there is no incremental charge for that. So, our average customer today makes about $15,000 a year and they pay $350 to do that now that’s $350 is going up very quickly because we have this pricing system. But that’s what it’s been historically. Pay per booking is something we will launch in the third quarter and all that is really just the commission model. It says if you want to come on our sites for free you can do that, but you’re going pay us 10% and you’re going have to use e-commerce platform, you’re going have to use online booking tools. So, those will be properties that kind of meet the full vision that we have for the business long-term.

No, we are not targeting the Arabian Deed demographic, because it’s a different marketplace for us, they primary homes in cities and that’s not we are about. We are about second home and vacation destination which includes cities, but cities by far in a way not the biggest part of what we do. And but it’s not fair to say that’s just for property manage, we actually two products coming out. One its going be a pay-per-booking product for professional managers and one is going to be for individual owners. And let me take the individual owner piece first. We actually think that one of the barriers for people signing up HomeAway are our subscription fees, because there are 21 million second homes owned by families in the U.S. and Europe right now. Not including Asia, South America. Of those about 7 million our rented a little bit or a lot, of this 14 million properties still yet to be rented and statistics show that the average second home was used less than 30 days a year. So, it is a huge untapped market for people who want to rent their home.

By having a pay-per-booking product it’s essentially the best promotion we can do because it’s saying if you have never tried this before come on the sites and do it for free. Now, maybe they will come on the sites and do it for free and they will get a lot of bookings and they are paying us 10%. And they think well maybe it’s cheaper for me to get a subscription and we will less than do that, that’s okay. We would love to have them as subscribers. The subscription business is a great business it’s very predictable, the cash flow characteristics are amazing. And so we really see pay per bookings for those individual customers it’s just much easier way to drive more listing growth in our business and some will pay that way and some may convert.

On the property management side it’s really the perfect product for them. Even if they are paying us more money, they will probably stick with our pay per booking products, because property managers run their businesses on a percentage basis. They charge home owners a percentage per transaction, it’s typically 30%, 40% in some cases 50%. So, for us to charge 10% is perfectly consistent with all they run their business, just as a hotel paying a percentage to Expedia is perfectly consistent with how they run their business.

And we know for a fact because we have a big property management business and we have a good sales force. Is that there is a big backlog of companies who want to do business with us on a percentage basis. And so I think what you will see is when we launch those products the initial influx of properties will come in very quickly from property manager. But you will also see hopefully this is our plan that our new listings from individual owners will start growing faster, because we just have a very easy way to get people on board.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

And what if anything is in the guide for 2013 for pay per booking?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

In pay per book – so we gave guidance for the year, we are usually pretty active with our guidance, because of the subscription characteristics of our business. We have on last check last night with our FB&A people about $100,000 in our $345 million plan for our pay per booking, so this year it won’t be driven by that, this year has been driven by all the things we did last year. And there is a specific reason for that. We are going to launch it in Q4 or Q3 typically there is a much of testing we have to do to we have to make sure the products right. And then when we release it we will start taking on properties in Q4, but the way (indiscernible) works in that business is that we are making money on a transaction basis and we get the recognize of revenue when that trip is taken. So, when the fourth quarter we might start generating some trips, but most of those trips will be spring break and for summer vacation. And so when you really start to see an impact we will be recognizing that revenue when it comes to holiday season in 2014. So, this effort this year will be a big driver on next year these are our plans.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

So, you’ve got tier pricing, which is very high incremental going through bundle product offerings, which also seem to be online booking capability which you have – which you can monetize and can be accretive and pay per booking that all seems like they are very high incremental margins and does that suggest that also as the business actually top line accelerates and you can get meaningful margin expansion on the back of that or there reasons to think that the upside that you are going to get it is going to be immediately deployed back into the…

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Well, the one thing that’s challenging, so tier pricing and bundling is really a 100% margin.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Because you basically are having the same customers that are just spending more with you and now you are doing digitally is exposing them on the site, there is no cost to that. So, it’s internally, so that’s great business. We also with our e-commerce transactions have value-added services that we are now attaching in the shopping cards seems like insurance products which are also 100% margin, which is great. One area where I would say it won’t be 100% margin is pay per booking and the reason is because if we get a big influx of pay per booking properties, we want to make sure that we can put them on our sites without hurting the existing subscribers that are on those sites. So, the traffic space the same if you add a lot more properties from this new initiative when somebody is going to have to get hurt, somebody is going to have less business.

So, what we have to do is when we add more properties to pay per bookings, we have to increase to traffic. So, we are going to be in the same game that our booking.com is doing which is that we are going to be arbitraging at the end. So, if we know for example the average booking is $1500 and we are going to make a $150, then we are going to try to get very good at, how do we spend $50 to make $150, so that won’t be a 100% margin hopefully with really high margin. One of the advantages that we have even over the hotel business and certainly over Arabian Deed is that our average transaction is close to $1,500 that’s much bigger than in the hotel business and it’s certainly much bigger than in the rooms marketing business as well. So, we do have the ability I think to arbitrage SEM, but it’s not something that we have historically done. So, we have to get good at it, I think we have every opportunity to generate very high margins in that business, but they won’t be 100%.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

Now, one more from me, and what decent questions we’ll have a few minutes left. You referenced $7 million number in U.S. and Europe in terms of secondary homes.

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Yeah.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

On the mark you said you had about 700,000, I mean what is it pay per booking is a component of that or awareness of branding as I pointed out, but is this not an industry of which 50% of the market should be online and should you be the sole beneficiary of that, I mean, 700,000.

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

That’s our plan, I mean, I do think we – we are the market leader in the business. We are going to work really hard to stay that away. And I think over time the market leader should have 30%-40% share of a market. So, we do have a long way to go from the listings perspective it’s that we study it and it’s fascinating to me how many vacation rentals just aren’t online yet. Especially in places like Europe and Eastern Europe and South America, so there is a lot of opportunity for those guys to get online. The market share things are a little bit sieving now because of the 7 million at rent.

About half of those people are renting let’s say for 10 weeks or more a year. And about half of those are renting 10 weeks or less, so 10 weeks or less are people who have vacation homes and they just want to pay their taxes, they want to paid for maintenance, so they would love to rent it four or five weeks a year, but they use them. So, they are not going to rent them all the time, we have almost all of our customers today fall into the 10 weeks or more bucket because our subscription prices are aggressive relative to other sites and it’s a multi hundred dollar commitment you make. We get the power users today. That other 3.5 million who rent 10 weeks or less they are a perfect audience for pay per booking, perfect audience because the subscription prices are no longer a barrier. They can get on rent a few weeks a year, pay us a percentage. And when you think about our average person making $15,000 a year so, a 10% that would be $1500 to us against the current subscription of $350, but we are not planning on that happening. We think what we are going to get in pay-per booking are a lot of people who might see three or four transactions here, but still if that’s $4000, we are still making $400, we are still doing the same or better as on the subscription side. And I think that’s what we’ll see happen.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

Okay. Any questions? The $3.5 million that are 10 weeks or more that includes property management listing as that’s self-managed only?

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Property management listings are in the bucket of high velocity typically rented out more than 10 weeks ago, yeah.

Question-and-Answer Session

Unidentified Analyst

If the market goes to 30% to 40%, is it 30%, 40% of $7 million or the $21 million just in terms of how you are seeing, you are sizing the opportunity? And second question as you just tell bunch of venture investors as shareholders, so, if there are lockups like are you at the restriction in terms of direct selling or if you can comment on that also? Thank you.

Brian Sharples

Sure. So, in terms of market sizing, I mean, we look at the opportunity in concentric circle. So, the sweep spot for us to historically has been people running their homes 10 weeks or more years, because there are power users they are willing to pay etcetera, etcetera. The next concentric circle for us is the 7 million people who are renting today and looking to actively market on properties. And then the next concentric circle around that would be the $21 million, where the second homes don’t use them much and we need to entice them into the business. And so it’s like any business you go after the low-hanging fruit first and over time you go to the rest. So, at the moment, we are just in the core of that business and trying to move our ways outward.

We do still have lots of venture investors in the business and they have had lots of opportunity to sell stock, but most of them are big believers in the company. So, they are not locked up. They are just believers in the long-term story of HomeAway. So, we have had some distributions. There was actually a lock trade last night, it was 2.5 million shares that went out from one of our venture investors, but it’s a closed group on the board. They obviously don’t want to do anything that’s going to hurt the stock and most of them really believe in where the company is going long-term. So, that’s why you haven’t seen it kind of selling from our venture investors.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

One question right there?

Unidentified Analyst

Can you tell us anything about retention rates in the upper tier, do we have enough data yet to know as you push towards that 999 our retention rates?

Brian Sharples

We do actually yes, we are starting to flip people, they are 90 plus percent, well beyond what we thought. So, the products we are working, basically if you double your spend with us, right now on average you are doubling your business. And so people are almost all of them are renewing that are coming up for renewal in the higher tiers. In fact, what we expect to happen is that every year people just keep moving up on average. And I didn’t say on the call in the fourth quarter, even though we didn’t give out the specific numbers that on HomeAway now we are in year two of tiered pricing, so we just crossed that threshold in the last quarter. And the ASP uplift is about the same as it was in the first year. So, at the moment, it seems to be I think we have got a few years of leverage.

Unidentified Analyst

Any thoughts about another tier?

Brian Sharples

What we are going to do, so the next frontier for us we are not working on it now, but we are going to work on it in ‘14 is that we are going to do it, we are going to go to market pricing. So, we already have specific markets where almost half the people have bought the upper tier. So, clearly that market is under priced. So, Orlando is an example of that where the price probably needs to be more like 2000 in the upper bracket versus 1000. So, we are going to just do it market-by-market over time, but we actually have to develop the platform to be able to do that. And it’s just not on our roadmap for this year we are going to do it next year. And it’s one of the things that will keep that going I think for a long period of time. We’ll end it there.

Scott Devitt - Morgan Stanley

Brian, again, thanks for your time.

Brian Sharples - Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder

Thank you.

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