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Infosys Limited, Inc. (NYSE:INFY)

Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

February 26, 2013 5:30 pm ET

Executives

S. D. Shibulal - Co-Founder, Managing Director, Chief Executive Officer, Director and Chairman of Infosys Technologies (Sweden) AB

Analysts

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Good afternoon, everybody. I'm Vipin Khare, I'm the analyst for Morgan Stanley for India IT services. We have Infosys' CEO, Mr. Shibulal with us, and I just kick off the chat session with a few questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Shibu, welcome to the Morgan Stanley media conference. You've been on the road for 4 weeks now, meeting clients and obviously, you've started this initiative of Infosys 3.0 a couple of quarters back. So how do things stand with clients in your meetings, and externally and internally, all these changes, how they are panning out?

S. D. Shibulal

So actually, there are 2 parts to this answer. One is the external piece, second is the internal piece. From the external perspective, I have been on the road for the last 4 weeks. I have met about 15, 15-or-so clients and before that, I was in World Economic Forum. So actually, when I was in the World Economic Forum, in the beginning, was quite pessimistic. By the end of it, I think people actually worked themselves up to some bit of a cautious optimism. But when I came back to meet the clients, I'm not seeing confidence in their mind -- in their eyes. There is this talk of about a little positiveness, but when I discussed with them about their next set of products into the market, the next avenue for growth, I'm not sure they have it. So when we talk to our clients, their ability to take strong decisions, long-term decisions, confidence to take and make investments, continued to be slow. So in my mind, from the beginning of the quarter until today, and actually I had said that in the beginning of the quarter also, the world has not changed. The world of our clients have really not changed from the beginning of the quarter until today, and that's exactly what I've said in the beginning of the quarter also. When we announced our Q3 results. While we have done well in Q3, I have said that the world has really not changed. And I think that continues to be true. Now from an internal transformation perspective, we have made enormous progress. There are a number of things we were doing it internally. Number one, we were launching a new strategic direction, called Building Tomorrow's Enterprise, that is done. Not only it is done, it has been well-accepted by the industry analysts. There has been a number of reports by various industry analysts. In fact, there was one which articulated it better than us, by Forrester. So there was relaunch of the strategic direction. It has been very well liked by the industry analysts, and then it has been liked by clients. We have 70 clients who have come on to our business -- to our business platforms. We have $603 million of booked PCV in our products and platform space. The acceptance of clients have been very, very strong to the new strategic direction. That's number 1. Number 2, to support the strategic direction, we did the structural alignment, we completely restructured ourselves, that is completely behind us. We have a new structure in place, new leadership in place, so that is also behind us. Number 3, anytime when there is this kind of transformation, any kind -- anytime when the -- we have such large transformations, you have turbulence associated with it. In my mind, that is behind. Then the next one is, because we planned -- so there is a planning problem. Because our supply chain is planned somewhat 18 months ahead and we had predicted a revenue growth of 8% to 10% in FY '13, whereas our revenue growth is below, we had recruited people in FY '12 for FY '13 at -- 26,000 people were recruited in FY '12 for FY '13. Out of that, 19,000 people have joined and, of course, you can see that because of that, our utilization is low. So we have adjusted our planning model for the future. In FY '13, we have only given offers for 6,000 people. So at 80% conversion rate, we would have about 4,000 people joining and there is -- along with that, we will have the remaining people from FY '12 joining, so about 14,000 people will join in the next 12 months. So we have to adjust our planning model. We have done that. We are also -- we also wanted to adjust some of our expense line items. We have done that. So the strategy is over, the structure is over, the leadership is over, the planning we have put back in place, we have prepared ourselves for next year by adjusting some of the line items. What is not -- also, we had 1 other issue of on-site staffing challenges during the year. Our on-site media utilization was about 85%, 83% for the year. That is also behind us now, because the new results came in October, the media utilization has dropped, so that is also behind us. What is not done is utilization. Utilization is a challenge, it continues throughout the low-70s, and we have more people joining in the next few months, and it is a reflection of growth. If the growth picks up, the utilization will pick up. And the other thing is, because we have not added people in the bottom, the pyramid spectrum has become a little more narrower, and that will increase our average cost per employee. So on 1 side, on externally, the world has not changed. On the other side, internally, we are behind with a lot of the transformational work we started out with.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So Shibu, now, the first question that will come to everybody's mind is obviously, the NASSCOM forecast that they've put out at 12% to 14% revenue growth for next year and obviously, you don't give out forward-looking statements. But I mean, how are you thinking about that, does it look realistic, and what does it mean for Infosys?

S. D. Shibulal

There are 2 parts to it. From an aspiration perspective, we always aspire that we will have -- we will grow at or above the industry average, and we will have 1 of the leading margins. We'll continue to aspire for that. We will continue to aspire for that, for FY '14, FY '15, FY '16, so as far as I can think of. We will continue to aspire. We are not changing our aspiration at this point in time. That is 1 side. On the other side of the story, the portfolio makes a lot of difference to different companies. Whereas, the reality is that 34% of our revenue comes from discretionary spend. And today, the discretionary spend is definitely in travel, because the clients ability to make this long-term discretionary decisions are based on their revenue growth and because they are not able to see their revenue growth, because they're not able to see their new products and solutions, their abilities to make those decisions are hampered and that does reflect in our discretionary spend revenue. That is number 1. Number 2, we get about 34% of our revenue from financial services, even if I take out 6% of insurance, you will still get about 26%. So the total revenue of -- whichever way I look, 50%, 52%, 55% [ph] of our revenue is in the challenged markets, that will have an impact on us. For example, if you look at the NASSCOM numbers, there if you look at the industry revenue, the percentage of revenue from BPO would be much, much larger than what we get. Our revenue from BPO is approximately, 5%, 6%. Whereas, the industry revenue would be a very different percentage, and the BPO revenue is much more stable. So when you combine -- when you look at these numbers, one needs to apply our portfolio to these numbers. Our numbers are not ready yet, as usual, we are going through the process. The budgets are getting closed, there's no doubt, about 78% of the budgets are closed. Now we are looking at where the investments are going to be made. And once that is there, we will have a better idea about how our numbers will pan out for the year. And then we will decrease that in April.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. How is the deal pipeline looking for you compared to same time last year with all your clients?

S. D. Shibulal

So if you look at Q3, we have good wins in Q3, we closed $740 million of large deals. These are our core deals, these are deals in the IT BPO space, this includes application, maintenance, managed services, infrastructure and BPO space. And we also got -- and we also closed -- we had good growth in our discretionary consulting and system integration space in Q3. So we are at any point in time chasing about 12 deals, large deals. See the challenges, the deal closures are lumpy sometimes, because the deal closures are sometimes bunch up. That is number 1. Number 2, sometimes what we have noticed in the recent past is, the ramp ups do not happen the way we plan. If that happens, but it gets pushed out further, occasionally. So that causes unpredictability in the quarter-to-quarter revenue, but overall, I would say the deal pipeline is stable.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

And regardless of whatever your actual number for growth comes out to be next year, what will be the areas that are likely to drive that growth in terms of maybe verticals or regions?

S. D. Shibulal

So there are 4 dimensions to this answer: Number 1 from a client dimension. If you look at it from the client dimension perspective, we are in a broadly 2 sets of clients, one set of clients which we call the star accounts, which are the top 50 accounts. Another set of clients which are the remaining clients, and out of the remaining clients, we would have added about 200 clients over the last 18 months. 200 new clients -- about not 200, about 150, 150 new clients over the last 18 months. So the star accounts I expect them to grow at company average. We are trying to push the growth on the new accounts. In fact, if you look at the trajectory of growth of the new accounts, the slope of growth is actually not as steep as what we have seen in the past, so we are trying to make that happen. There are 2 sets of people going after these accounts. For the star accounts, we have the client partners who are very, very senior-level people, we have invested into these accounts, these are large accounts, and these are most often, multi-partners account that means other than Infosys, there are other people in those accounts. And so we have invested heavily into those accounts. We have increased our sales force by 10% while the revenue has gone up by 5%, which means we have doubled -- and we have invested much more than the revenue growth into our sales force. And so that is 1 part. So we expect the star account to go into company average. We expect the tail accounts to grow faster than the company average, we are trying to push the growth in the 150 accounts which we recently opened. That's one dimension. Second dimension is, from a service perspective, we expect that the consulting system integration will continue to grow. New areas like cloud, sustainable [indiscernible] is very, very small, enterprise mobility, engineering, BPO, we are expecting that will go above company average across the board. And so not a specific industry, above company average. Cloud and mobility, will definitely grow faster, BPO this year also is growing much above the company average. Next year also, it will grow -- it will hopefully grow above the company average. That's one other dimension. If you look at it geographically, we are -- growth is everywhere but the part of the world, which will grow above company average will be, in our mind, Continental Europe, Australia, India and probably, LatAm. But the LatAm business is very, very small. Continental Europe, we have made this investment of Lodestone, the integration is in progress. It is still very early, because the closing only happened October, and so there's hardly [indiscernible] there over. We are definitely seeing synergies. Last quarter, we had one win, which was joint win. We have to actually go to market together. We have to identify clients, which are Lodestone clients, which are not ours, and try to bid for the bigger piece of the pie. So we really believe that that's the right acquisition, and it will yield results over a period of time. So Continental Europe, Australia is always growing better for us, and India is 1% of our revenue. We expect it to grow faster. That is from a geographical perspective. From an industry vertical perspective, when I look at it, retail is definitely doing very well for us. Retail in goods, retail, life sciences and CPG, that covers the full segment, then we expect manufacturing to be okay. Parts of financial services and telecom is definitely challenging for us. Another area which we, hopefully, will do better for us will be on a lower base that Infosys public service. We just won the D.C. exchange deal, which is a good deal to win, which is our first public service. Actually, that's our first public service deal, I think, which we announced. So that's a good win.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. You mentioned retail is going to do well. Can you delve deeper into why retail, specifically, showing signs of such good growth?

S. D. Shibulal

So, I think number 1, it's purely a capability issue. We have put strong capabilities in retail. We have done enormous amount of transformation and work in retail. We worked with all the top retailers in this country. We are the strongest in the digital domain. Most retailers are reducing their spend in brick-and-mortar and putting their spending into digital. That is where -- that is our sweet spot. We have cocreated multiple solutions in retail. So if you look at the mobile POS which we've cocreated with Nordstrom, the Tradex platform, which we cocreated with P&G, the BrandEdge platform which we cocreated with -- which is being co-created with [indiscernible]. That's all in the consumer experience space. So tremendous capability, very good, very, very good clients.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. And financial services, that's almost 33%, 34% of revenues. Are you seeing signs of growth there, or is it likely to be in line with company average?

S. D. Shibulal

So financial services, if I take out insurance, it will be about 28%, and that -- there is tremendous amount of focus in cost. Financial services is still going through reduction of cost. In fact this year, the number expected is 60,000 people more to be let go. So definitely, there is an enormous amount of cost pressure there. We are investing into regulatory and compliance matters, KYC and other related matters. We are seeing growth there. But the reduction of cost, that impact the overall revenue, right, because let's say we have total revenue and the people keep cutting budget, they cancel programs, that will have an impact. So overall, I will tend to believe that the growth will be below our average.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

And you mentioned the Lodestone acquisitions, I know it's still too early, but as the CEO over the coming quarters, what are the milestones that you will try to see whether it is integrating nicely, how successful it is, and by when we can expect it to be accretive?

S. D. Shibulal

So I think the integration is in progress. [Indiscernible] is the Chairman and he is running the integration process and I oversee it. It is the number 1 -- there was a people realignment which needed to be done. We wanted to remove complete overlap of people across both the organizations, because we are a consulting organization in Europe, they had a small consulting organization in the U.S. I think that realignment is now behind us, which is a very -- which is a serious thing to do, right, because we have to move people across. And when people get moved across, people have to be comfortable, their compensation has to be matched, their benefits have to be matched, so all of them. We don't want to have attrition. So I think all that is behind, I think. We will completely move the people into Lodestone in Europe, so that it becomes a complete consulting entity in Europe without any overlap from our side. U.S. has been rolled out. So that is behind us. Number 1. Number 2, the next financial integration is another big piece because we have SOX compliance, we have to make sure that the financial integration happened. I think that is in progress, that will complete. Then, the client integration is another piece. And the client mapping is the third piece. That is now in progress. So what I will look at is their absolute growth, but they influence revenue growth, how the joint revenues are starting to pan out.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. And which country specifically will benefit more, because of your increased presence through Lodestone?

S. D. Shibulal

So we have chosen 5 countries in Europe, and so U.K., of course, Germany, France, Switzerland, Netherlands and Belgium, are the 5 countries. Their presence is mostly in Switzerland and Germany. But in a more importantly, this business is a vehicle for expansion into Continental Europe. Remember, we will not be -- when they go and recruit somebody in Netherlands, they will be joining a local company. That allows us to recruit better talent at better cost points and better integration.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Now talking of local presence, how is your experience been with the public services presence that you've created in the U.S.?

S. D. Shibulal

Well, actually, public relations certainty, when you enter into a market like U.S. within the public service, there were a lot of regulatory requirements which you need to satisfy, and you also need to do -- you need to build contracting vehicles, [indiscernible] vehicles -- contracting vehicles. Now one approach, which we were looking at was to acquire contracting vehicles which we finally did not do. So we have not done any acquisition of contracting vehicles, we have actually worked on creating this, the typical employees organic manner of creating it, we're going ahead. This win is very good. To win D.C. exchange deals, this is a healthy experience for D.C. It's a very, very good win. Because usually, when you enter into the public service in the U.S., you enter as a subcontractor. Infosys doesn't do subcontracting work. In fact, that most of the -- there is no other part of Infosys that I can think of, where we do subcontracting to anybody else. But in public services, we were actually willing to do it, because we knew that barrier to our entry is subcontracting. But during delivery, we have not done it. We have gone and won the deal. It was a very good start. We also have to do some acquisitions.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. And in your earlier response, you mentioned that your sales team strength has gone up by 10%, 11%, that's the net increase. And the growth increase might have been higher. I mean can you run us through how you planned it because your revenue growth is not that strong this year yet do [indiscernible] the sales?

S. D. Shibulal

So when the troubles are not that great, that is the time when which you need to be closer to the clients. Because that is a time in which you have to give confidence to the client, that is a time when you have to actually be on the payment mode, which means that you need more people on the ground. And we also -- we're introducing new strategies and new offerings into the market, so it was even more important that we invest in those sales. That is where the investment happened. And also, this client partner program which we rolled out mirrors the investment.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

And in terms of new technologies of all the effort that has been put in, Infosys 3.0 products, platforms and solutions, what are the new engines of growth and are all of them now active or do you still need some time?

S. D. Shibulal

Yes. So there are multiple dimensions of engines, number 1 on the technology we have cloud mobility, sustainability, very, very small, then you have things like infrastructure services becoming very active. So if you look at the Q3 wins, there has been good infrastructure wins in Q3. And then BPO and engineering will continue to be active, so that's one. Then if you look at the product and platform space, we have about 11 or 12 platforms in the market. We have booked revenue about $600 million over the last 12 to 15 months, which is actually quite substantial. 70 clients on buying into the platform, so that is active. The life sciences is starting to turn around but we need to look at inorganic acquisition there. I talked about Infosys public service, that is now starting but again, acquisition is important. In products and platforms space, also acquisition is important. We are looking at it actively. In consulting system integration, we did 1, we did, I think, that's it for the time being. Now it is a matter of integration and getting benefits out of it, we will focus on that. It will come more in the next few quarters. Europe, Continental Europe, we did one, it's actually wonderful that we [indiscernible] intersection, and now we have to get the benefits.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

You mentioned system integration there, that is a very large market, a lot of the large deals are there. And every deal varies by nature in terms of the distribution of hardware and services there. So when you go out in the market to bid for systems integration or infrastructure deals, is there anything you could share in terms of how much you're willing to stretch on the hardware side or employee takeaways, sir?

S. D. Shibulal

So employee takeaway side, we are taking all employees today. Please remember, we have probably, 20,000, 30,000 -- 25,000 employees outside India, so taking over 100 employees, really does not change the mix. And we also have the ability to actually use those employees for other clients. So for example in South, we did a deal where we took over 97 employees. Out of that, we used 50 or so for the current program and the remaining went into other clients. So that's it. That is a good thing to do. So employee takeaway -- from an asset perspective, we are not in the balance sheet terms, actually. From the asset perspective, our approach is asset light, as little of it as possible. And even when we do asset, how do we partner with somebody else? So we are building ecosystem of partners who will actually take over the asset and manage for their client. We clearly believe in what we articulated for the last, maybe, 5 years back, which is, it's exactly like I always said, it's exactly like the global revenue model. We started out in '86 and we became completely mainstream over the next 5 years or 10 years. We have been talking about this model of global sourcing, the fact that you have to take out, is to take the total outsourcing deal and bake it into smaller deals and desegregate, give it to the best, and we are seeing that now. So in the infrastructure deals which we're in, we take over people, we take over the process part. We don't -- and again when we take over people, we don't take over the entire set. We tell the client that they have a responsibility of managing the people. It's not like you can just give up your mess and we will take it and run it. And a third part is being handled by somebody who can handle the assets the best.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Also, every time there's a growth scale in the industry, one of the easiest solutions that is prescribed is usually cutting pricing or flooring margins to revive growth. At least, one of your peers have said that, even if they were to lower margins, it may not necessarily help growth, what is your view, is the underlying assumption itself valid there, or...?

S. D. Shibulal

So Rajiv [ph] must be asked. These are our margin and growth perspective, our aspirations have not changed. Our aspiration is to be -- to grow at or above the industry average, even though our portfolio is different and to have 1 of the leading industry margins. That's our aspirations. It is whole philosophy, I would say, of our growth and margin. Number 1, I really don't believe that I can just cut cost and create volume. If I cut cost this quarter, and let's say I win all the deals in the market this quarter, that would be the end of that. Next quarter, everyone else will cut. From a pricing envelope perspective, in the consulting and system integration the global SI is all the umbrella and we operate below it. We are 40% below the global SI's revenue productivity in consulting and system integration, and have almost doubled the margins, almost double the margins, right, with the 40% left. In business and IT operations space, which is traditional space, we hold the pricing envelope. From a pricing perspective, we definitely look at it as a portfolio. We look at it as a portfolio at the client level, at the industry level, at the business level, we do all that. If there is a strategic client, then we have to actually be price competitive. We will be, there's no doubt. Because you can't give up space. At the same time, if you believe that you can simply cut price and create growth, it's not viable because if you cut cost, everyone -- price, everyone else will cut the price. So it has to be on a deal-by-deal basis on a client-by-client basis, we have to take that decision. Our aspirations will continue to be the same, and we clearly believe that from a strategic perspective, everything I'm talking about, increasing cuts, consulting system integration, doing products and platforms, going into Continental Europe, all of those things, acquisition, all of those things, are meant to meet our aspiration of at or above industry -- at or above industry average growth, and one of the industry-leading margins. Short term, there will be challenges, because each person, the utilization impact our margin by 40 basis points at a revenue level, not at the cost level. So short term, there will be challenges, but in the medium to long term, I believe we should -- our strategies will meet our aspirations.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So Shibu, as your costs were bloated and revenues did not come through, you took a hit on the negative side on margin. And now, whenever revenue comes back, your costs are already there, and you should have a disproportionate benefit, and see the positive side of margin. So what should investors expect, how much of that will be retained? How much of that will be reinvested? And what are the areas where you can invest where you have not already invested?

S. D. Shibulal

So I think 1 also needs to remember that when that happened, when the costs, when the utilizations went down and the revenue did not come, we also changed our variable payout and because it's holding the performance and things like that. When the growth comes up, a lot of those activities are back, so a lot of that will go in there. Some of it will get invested and some of it will come back, and so there's no doubt. So we'll take that decision as and when it happens. But a lot of it is to go back to where the employees got hit because of the variable compensation. Because we paid out less. We have to increase that payment because the performance is going up then the performance has to go up, payment has to go up. Some of it has to get invested and some will have to come back to the -- come back to -- and so that's what we will do.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. And before I will open it up to the questions, guidance is something that is very close to your style of management, and [indiscernible] given that you stopped giving quarterly guidance, how should we think about the annual guidance versus...?

S. D. Shibulal

Guidance is very much in line with our philosophy of transfer and fee, and it is very dear to our heart. But at the same time, even if vehicles creating confusion and it is hurting both sides, it doesn't make any sense at that point in time. We are in the process of putting towards the next year's thing. As I've said the environment is quite volatile, so our ability to predict, is quite hampered. So we will need to make a decision. This is a constant discussion in the board. There are 2 or 3 items which are discussed at least once in 6 months, 1 is guidance, second is cash and it goes on. So at this point, there's no change in direction, but we will see what happens.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Any questions from the audience? While we're waiting for that -- okay.

Unknown Analyst

I've got a question, just in terms of the BPO, it's a small part of your business, it has been for some time, maybe smaller than for some of your peers, what are your thoughts about that? Is that an area where you like to do an acquisition, or who's quite an attractive market, seems strange with you being such small for so long.

S. D. Shibulal

So first of all, BPO business is very different than the traditional BPO business in the industry. Our BPO business is a very business -- business-oriented. That is very -- revenue, I mean it is split between the cost side of the equation and revenue side of the equation, so we do things like -- we do things which are very much on the cost side of the client. So -- and the margins profile also has been substantially different. Our BPO operates at 20% operating margin, which is very close to our rest of the company. So we will -- we, again, have a high-margin aspiration for our BPO business. We will continue on this path, and I don't think we are planning to be -- we don't have plans to become a call center or any of those commodity base services. We do have call centers, but that is to support our other BPO work, and we are looking at acquisitions, we did an acquisition of McCamish a few quarters back, and we did 1 in Australia, Portland, it's a small 1 in Australia, which is actually -- which gives us deep supply-chain capabilities. So I think we'll continue on this path. It is growing, I think, got 17%. I think this year, and they expect it to grow above our average next year also.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So Shibu, I think that's all the time we have. Just to summarize, is it fair to say that the external environment remains the same, internally things have improved and you're optimistic for the future, or you're still cautiously optimistic, as you said, around your results?

S. D. Shibulal

Cautiously optimistic.

Vipin Khare - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

S. D. Shibulal

Thank you.

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