80 Winning Stocks That Have Nothing to Do with Gold

I like to create screens during times like this when the atmosphere is quite bad - we can see what is "working" quite easily. Now with that said, in a "normal" market the adage is to buy what is holding up since it should do best on a rebound; but what we have found during this bear is (if you can time it perfectly) as a trader you want to buy the most horrid junk out there since the short squeezes are enormous.

So instead of selling this as the stocks to do best on the rebound, let's call these names that have allowed you to sleep at night and should rebound "nicely" when the day comes.

Since that is not our time frame, I was more curious to see what is holding up the best EX-precious metals. I came up with a very small list of 80 stocks that simply hold the following conditions

1. Stock price $10+
2. Average volume 100K+
3. Trading over 20, 50, and 200 day (simple) moving average
4. Minimum market cap of $300 million

Below are the "survivors." I've sorted them by largest (market cap) to smallest. Half the list is under $750 million in size showing how few names a casual investor would buy are "winning." Our "Auto Replacement" thesis continues to bear fruit [Jan 15, 2009: Thesis - Automotive Replacement and Accessories] - remember- O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) was our favorite here, but AZO & AAP also appear as does the medical electronic records thesis [Jan 9, 2009: Starting Quality Systems]. The smaller housing plays thesis is also providing us some shelter in this terrible storm [Feb 11, 2009: Beginning Starter Stake in First National Financial]. The "adult education" names continue to hang around, although that is becoming one crowded trade. One interesting outlier are 2 restaurant stocks....

Ticker	Company	Market Cap
DNA	Genentech Inc.	91,036
TEVA	Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.	36,785
AZO	AutoZone Inc.	8,267
Q	Qwest Communications International	6,032
VRTX	Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated	5,331
ORLY	O'Reilly Automotive Inc.	4,483
MYL	Mylan, Inc.	3,989
DRI	Darden Restaurants Inc.	3,851
FDO	Family Dollar Stores Inc.	3,841
FNF	Fidelity National Financial, Inc.	3,760
AAP	Advance Auto Parts Inc.	3,551
DF	Dean Foods Co.	3,158
WPI	Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc.	3,133
LPS	Lender Processing Services, Inc.	2,731
SNDA	Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd.	2,366
CECO	Career Education Corp.	2,346
MANT	ManTech International Corp.	2,011
MJN	Mead Johnson Nutrition Company	1,915
AWH	Allied World Assurance Company	1,915
GHL	Greenhill & Co Inc.	1,897
SEPR	Sepracor, Inc.	1,820
COCO	Corinthian Colleges Inc.	1,743
MVSN	Macrovision Solutions Corp.	1,548
EMS	Emergency Medical Services Corp.	1,488
DLM	Del Monte Foods Co.	1,487
MDRX	Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions	1,378
EYE	Advanced Medical Optics Inc.	1,357
LIA	Liberty Acquisition Holdings Corp.	1,144
QSII	Quality Systems Inc.	1,132
LANC	Lancaster Colony Corp.	1,115
STAR	Starent Networks, Corp.	1,090
CPLA	Capella Education Co.	981
CVTX	CV Therapeutics, Inc.	954
CHE	Chemed Corp.	943
CYCL	Centennial Communications Corp.	896
THS	Treehouse Foods Inc.	852
MDAS	MedAssets, Inc.	841
CY	Cypress Semiconductor Corporation	744
IWOV	Interwoven Inc.	740
FYR	Sapphire Industrials Corp.	697
LNCE	Lance Inc.	682
AIPC	American Italian Pasta Co.	664
MDVN	Medivation, Inc.	653
ITMN	InterMune Inc.	643
HTH	Hilltop Holdings Inc.	626
TNDM	Neutral Tandem, Inc.	614
BEAT	CardioNet, Inc.	600
TG	Tredegar Corp.	591
EPIQ	EPIQ Systems Inc.	587
ASIA	AsiaInfo Holdings Inc.	570
OCN	Ocwen Financial Corp.	568
BWLD	Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.	548
PEGA	Pegasystems Inc.	545
SWIM	thinkorswim Group Inc.	545
URX	United Refining Energy Corporation	537
CENT	Central Garden & Pet Co.	520
DSP	SP Acquisition Holdings, Inc.	515
ICUI	ICU Medical Inc.	506
SXCI	SXC Health Solutions, Corp.	496
TOH	Hicks Acquisition Co. I Inc.	490
TCW	Triplecrown Acquisition Corp.	490
NAQ	NRDC Acquisition Corp.	489
GHQ	GHL Acquisition Corp.	455
IDEV	Indevus Pharmaceuticals Inc.	432
HOTT	Hot Topic Inc.	406
VRY	Victory Acquisition Corp.	399
CML	Compellent Technologies, Inc.	396
GEOY	GeoEye, Inc.	396
BPW	BPW Acquisition Corp.	385
TSYS	TeleCommunication Systems Inc.	381
ICFI	ICF International Inc.	363
ODSY	Odyssey Healthcare Inc.	360
AIRV	Airvana, Inc.	351
GQN	Global Brands Acquisition Corp.	341
HGG	hhgregg, Inc.	327
OPTR	Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	327
BJRI	BJ's Restaurants Inc.	323
SNCR	Synchronoss Technologies, Inc.	315
VNUS	Vnus Medical Technologies Inc.	309
CPSI	Computer Programs & Systems Inc.	302

Comments

[kelm:]

Your article says nothing about likely trajectory, only that they have held up so far. I am personally of the view that any investment needs to be into positions (long or short) that have the global economic fundamentals behind them. Looking at individual stocks in the US equity markets, or indeed in most equity markets, is a crap shoot.

Feb 27 09:47 AM

[Boon:]

I disagree with kelm... I think in a recession, the most important thing is the management of the company as this is the real test if they are competent or not. In good times any Tom, Dick, or Harry can make money, but it is in the bad times where good companies are separated from the bad.

The focus should be on thoroughly researching individual stocks rather than trying to focus on the big macro economic picture.

Feb 27 10:07 AM

[Marcap:]

I agree with both Kelm and Boon. Focusing on the Macro view rather on it's Micro components is not a wise strategy for these recessionary times. When you want to clean up a forest, or determine the real value in its wood, you need to look at the individual trees and not simply go by an aerial photo of the whole forest. Likewise, when you want to find value in a company, you need to focus on that company's individual merits as opposed to relying on market trends, such as the direction of the DOW, S&P, etc. Good companies can survive the flood, while bad ones very likely will not...at least not without bailouts...but that's a topic for perhaps another thread.

Feb 27 10:37 AM

[Marcap:]

Correction: The line in my previous post: "I agree with both Kelm and Boon." should have read "I agree with both Mark and Boon." I obviously do NOT agree with Kelm for reasons stated.

My apologies!

Feb 27 11:27 AM

[k9s-4-k8:]

Perhaps, Trader Mark should seek a user name change. These aren't trades, they are at best, buy and holds for the next bull market. This is a short term trading market. Most profits are seen short term unless one is on holding short positions which will remain in favor with all choppiness till this bear has been shot and mounted.

Feb 27 01:27 PM

[Marcap:]

I really don't agree. While certainly some stocks in the list may be better suited to the long term investor, most of them show enough volatility to satisfy many day-traders, and short term investors, whether they choose long or short positions.

On Feb 27 01:27 PM k9s-4-k8 wrote:

> Perhaps, Trader Mark should seek a user name change. These aren't
> trades, they are at best, buy and holds for the next bull market.
> This is a short term trading market. Most profits are seen short
> term unless one is on holding short positions which will remain in
> favor with all choppiness till this bear has been shot and mounted.

Feb 27 01:55 PM

[Chris B:]

During every recession, people declare that it is a short-term trading market.

After every recession, people point to the bottom you should have bought at (and some claim to have done so!).


On Feb 27 01:27 PM k9s-4-k8 wrote:

> Perhaps, Trader Mark should seek a user name change. These aren't
> trades, they are at best, buy and holds for the next bull market.
> This is a short term trading market. Most profits are seen short
> term unless one is on holding short positions which will remain in
> favor with all choppiness till this bear has been shot and mounted.

Feb 27 03:09 PM

[socphd71:]

How did Q (Qwest) make the list? It hasn't traded over 6 for the last 52 weeks!

Feb 27 07:38 PM

[Marcap:]

Good catch! And of course, a very good point. How did it make the list since among other things, the author states: "I came up with a very small list of 80 stocks that simply hold the following conditions: 1. Stock price $10+"

Looking a little closer, I did find some others which fail the test:

AIRV - 52 week high was $6.95

CENT - 52 week high was $8.15

CYCL - 52 week high was $8.74

OCN - 52 week high was $9.54

BPW - 52 week high was $9.60

GQN - 52 week high was $9.60

TCW - 52 week high was $9.63

HOTT - 52 week high was $9.89

TSYS - 52 week high was $9.93

LIA - 52 week high was $9.60

Oh well, even though some of the above are close to $10, so much for the author's $10+ parameter.

On Feb 27 07:38 PM socphd71 wrote:

> How did Q (Qwest) make the list? It hasn't traded over 6 for the
> last 52 weeks!

Feb 27 08:46 PM

[TraderMark:]

Hi Marcap and socphd

good catches, looks like the screening I was using was not doing a good job. I did enter a >$10 variable -... that's not good! I don't follow the $10 and below market for the most part so I was not familiar with those names other than Q

Must be buggy on that end. I am going to rerun this weekend and if issue persists will hit the feedback button for the service. Thanks for the heads up.

Feb 27 10:34 PM

[TraderMark:]

I just re-ran the screen (obviously the market is down since) and got 48 results and none of the names above. It must of been a clerical error on my side to not include the >$10 on the screen. Sorry for that.

Feb 27 10:38 PM

[TraderMark:]

when I say none of the names above I meant the ones listed in comments in the <$10 area.

Feb 27 10:40 PM

[Marcap:]

Hi Mark,

Thanks for the update, and for clearing that up.

On Feb 27 10:38 PM TraderMark wrote:

> I just re-ran the screen (obviously the market is down since) and
> got 48 results and none of the names above. It must of been a clerical
> error on my side to not include the >$10 on the screen. Sorry for
> that.

Feb 27 11:34 PM

[Guru914:]

Five of the 80 are also no longer being traded (e.g., acquired). They are:

URX
EYE
IWOV
IDEV
CYCL

Mar 01 02:19 PM