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Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (NYSE:RAX)

Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

February 27, 2013 5:30 pm ET

Executives

Jason Luce

Bryan McGrath

Analysts

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Francois Meunier - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. Good afternoon, everybody. It's my great pleasure to welcome Rackspace's Jason Luce, VP of Finance; and Bryan McGrath of Investor Relations. Before we get started, please note that all important disclosures including personal holding disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures appear in the Morgan Stanley public website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures or at the registration desk.

Question-and-Answer Session

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So, Jason, perhaps you can kick it off by talking about priorities for 2013? You put out some guidance there. There's been some concerns about deceleration in growth rates and so forth, but perhaps put it in context for us [indiscernible].

Jason Luce

Yes. I think, first thing we can do is sort of review what we did in 2012. Our number one mission in 2012 was really to ensure that OpenStack prevailed as the open cloud standard. And we spent -- I was trying to say we spent a year in the lab working on that. And we also shifted from a public cloud platform from the old code to the new code which included 7 new products. And that -- and I think all that was a success. I think some of those products rolled a little later than we had liked, but we're definitely conservative around making sure that the kinks were worked out before we put those products to sort of general availability mode. And we've seen good traction on the platform since then. So those are the priorities for 2012. In November, on our Q3 call, we said that now that the product platform has shifted, we're on to the new code base, we have 2 new priorities. And then we re-stated those priorities on our February call. And the priorities are around getting referenced customers, the big customers, marquee names, running big production apps. The kinds of things that we couldn't take on when we were on the old software platform. And coming to market with those customers, getting those deals in a revenue-generating mode, and then that leading to reacceleration of our cloud growth. Those are the 2 priorities. Yes, those are the stated goals for the year. And I think that there's been a little bit of confusion around -- people thought well the platform rose and now, you're going to get a bunch of big deals immediately. The reality is, is that the way we think about them is what started out as a long list of really meaningful conversations then turns into proof of concepts and then moves into the commitment phase, i.e, the legal department, and then it becomes revenue-generating. We think that will be the catalyst to help us reaccelerate the growth rate on the cloud side.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Great. And so, I know you don't give formal 2013 guidance apart from CapEx. But your sort of server-based CapEx is going up, I think 17% at the midpoint, but you're obviously moving more of your revenues to cloud. So how should we think about top line trends in context of that guidance? And then on the margin side as well, I think you said -- it's -- if I had read it right, to expect consistent margins give or take with 2012?

Jason Luce

Yes. So I start out by saying we don't give revenue guidance. I think you can infer sort of top line growth rates by looking at the relationship between the customer geared CapEx that we give, and historically, incremental revenue dollars that we've added. And obviously, the sales side does that every year when we give our CapEx range. Look -- and if you run that relationship then the growth rate implies lower than last year. And I think that a lot of -- and so people are asking, okay, why you got this new product platform -- why does the growth rate imply lower? The reality is, and some of you understand this well, in a recurring revenue business is a layered cake. If those deals don't hit in January, you don't get to count them 12 times. If they hit in July, you only count them 6. And so you don't get the benefits, just the timing of the platform and the customers that are running the proof of concepts, if those become revenue-generating the mid -- in the middle of the year, then obviously, it means lower for '13, but hopefully sets you up for a nice '14. The other thing that sort of impacts the growth rate this year is our installed base growth, so our same-store sales, which in 2011 kind of ran around 1% a month, and if you look at the fourth quarter, it was 0.5% a month. And on the $350-ish million of revenue, that's a few million dollars that you also don't get to count 12 times as you go into the year. And so I think that around the installed base growth -- on the call, Lanham said that there might have been some execution issues there, or we took our eye off the ball. And I think what he really meant was that we had a lot on our plate last year. Last year, was -- we were focused really on kind of this one thing in terms of rolling the new product software platform. And I just think that the priority of upselling enterprise customers was probably number one in 2011, and it just sort of slid down the priority list. What I will say is we've gone back to work on that, okay? So I know that we're pulling out all the stops and trying to make that number go higher because the same-store sales we were talking about, a couple of hundred thousand customers, is a really important part of our growth engine. And we also believe helps us to build -- sort of, lob large numbers. It's just like -- it was just no guarantee it's going to happen overnight. But I would point out also, when you think about what Lanham said on the call when he talked about reaccelerating growth, he said back half of the year. So, we all know how growth -- in the beginning of the year, if there's the annual growth rate compared to the back half of the year, given the layered cake nature of the revenue recurring model.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

On the margin side, I think you typically have some -- and many companies do margin pressure in the first quarter from -- then you got some new hirings, and so forth?

Jason Luce

Yes, look, I mean, this year we said, kind of similar margin profile to last year, okay? If you go back and just look at the numbers historically, you'll see that seasonal costs in our business hit Q1. So last year, margin quarter-over-quarter, Q4 to Q1, was down 270 basis points. Other things that affect our margin on a quarter-to-quarter basis are the number of hires in the prior quarter. So you've seen we're -- if we're light on hiring in one quarter, then the margin might be higher the next quarter. And if we look at -- in this case, we hired 256 people in the fourth quarter. We'll realize the full cost impact of that in the first quarter. And then the last thing that we've talked about is we've gone to work on a branding campaign. And so you might see some of that in Q1. I expect to see some of that in Q2. And the idea behind the branding campaign, I mean you've seen it, our sales and marketing is like -- something like 13% or 14% of total revenue. So we've never really gone out there and run big branding campaigns. But given the success we're having on OpenStack in terms of -- no, not necessarily revenue-generating deals but mind share, we feel like now is the time to go out to the world and let them know that we've open-sourced the cloud and we're open for business. So hopefully, it will help us on the enterprise side.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So a few days ago you issued a press release talking about some pricing changes in the bandwidth and CDN, and then moving to a tiered-pricing model for storage. Can you just talk to us about, size it in terms of how much of your revenue is impacted by these actions? And just put it in context in terms of the drivers of that. And is this a signal of a more competitive environment out there?

Bryan McGrath

Yes. So we've anticipated that question prior to that press release going out. Unfortunately, we've never from an -- disclosed in an SEC document, the different pieces of the cloud revenue. So exactly how much we charge per CDN exactly and how much we charge for bandwidth. And so since we haven't done that, then we just can't, from a legal standpoint, go and try to help you guys quantify what the impact of the new price codes are. But I mean it's -- you can pick a -- you can probably get a reasonable estimate if you look at how much our cloud business grows quarter-over-quarter in absolute dollars. Kind of taking a couple of steps back, I mean so you should understand kind of the -- how the pricing strategy works, right? When we deliver a cloud solution to a customer, you can kind of think of the bill we give our customers in 2 parts: one part is the pass-through for the capital that we deploy on behalf of that customer for their applications. So that's a pass-through for us and we have to buy gear on behalf of the customer, and we will recoup the cost via revenue. And then the other piece is the service, and that's where we add all of our value. There's no marginal return in the capital piece. We make our marginal returns on the service delivery piece. And so as as we get bigger and bigger, right, as we get the benefits of scale and efficiency, what we do is we take those cost deliveries and pass them through our customer in a form a lower pricing, but it's remains in the capital piece. Again we make up the margins and returns in the service fees. And so as you can imagine, we pay a lot less for CDN today than we did 5 years ago, when we introduced the price. Same thing with bandwith. What we did with storage, is we introduced volume discounting. So part of what -- we've talked about earlier, one of our big goals for the year is to get some large deployments on our cloud, having volume pricing is an expectation for very big book loads. And we get volume pricing when we buy storage resources. So we're essentially just passing that through. And what you saw last Friday, was just big a announcement around that.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. And any reactions from the sales force or from customers early in terms of their -- sort of appreciation for this or...

Jason Luce

Yes. There's a lot of reactions out there. You could -- there's a lot of blogs out there where you can see -- what some people think about it and then a lot customer reactions. I haven't personally got involved with any and heard of any big takeaways again from the customer base, but I mean -- people are largely happy when they can pay you less for CDN.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

And there's -- do you think -- are you reviewing your pricing across-the-board or do you think this is more of a one-off?

Bryan McGrath

This is more of a -- part of, think about it as, in a sequencing of the new platform. So last year was all about getting a new platform out, up and running and into production. And then there was some time when we wanted to make sure everything ran well. That there was no problem, so we've gone through that. Jason talked about it earlier. The next step we've already talked about is the branding -- big branding campaign, advertising campaign, a lot of promotions around it and adjusting your prices, that's something as the intermediate step in that sequence.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. You announced an acquisition this morning, ObjectRocket, a database company. Can you just give us a little bit of background on that and is that something you're still looking to do to sort of fill in acquisitions for various capabilities?

Bryan McGrath

Yes. So ObjectRocket, which is a -- it has really been NoSQL movement. There's a series of different NoSQL databases out there. MongoDB is one of the more popular ones and so we acquired MongoDB as a service customer. It's fairly consistent with some of the other acquisitions you've seen us do. Very -- we were buying essentially, a technology and a product and a development team, not a business. We've done it in the past with mail, obviously, there was this company called Slicehost. Cloudkick is one we've done more recently here in San Francisco for our monitoring capabilities and this is going to be -- this will be the core of our database as a servicer, the new sequel database as a service. But you should expect to -- it will be a bolt on to the cloud -- bolt on feature and there's a lot -- there's another one that's kind of on a roadmap, and so you expect more small feature-oriented deals like this.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Any numbers around it [indiscernible]?

Jason Luce

They're all so small that they're not material. I think that, just so people understand, what the corp DaaS team is doing in terms of analyzing these opportunities is there are a lot of companies that are basically building businesses around the OpenStack and the Rackspace cloud ecosystem. And when those companies get a lot of traction, sort of answering the calling of our customers, solving problems, we make a build-or-buy decision. And things are happening super fast in the cloud world. And for the deals that we do, these are companies that have gotten a ton of mind share in the cloud community. And so when it's a good fit, then we bring them in.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Good. So I think there's been some concerns as we talk about slowing growth. But I think Lanham and the team have talked about how early we are in the sort of the IT outsourcing, cloud computing and so forth. Can you just give us a little bit of color of what you think the opportunity is here and your ability to continue to deliver outside of product transitions or whatever that sustain growth over the years?

Jason Luce

I mean the opportunity set today for Rackspace is significantly larger than it was 6 months ago. I mean, I pretty much think that now it's OpenStack is, the on-prim, open-sourced alternative to VMware for the private clouds. And we've figured out a way to build a business around monetizing that with our sort of RackSpace private cloud, which companies can download. That's something -- I think [indiscernible], one of the industry analysts, they estimate that something like 80% to 90% of all IT is still run on a customers' premise -- customers' data center. And we built a $1 billion business running applications for customers that sit in our data center, so some fraction of call it that, 10% to 20%. And now, we are going to get a bite of the apple of some fraction of that 80% to 90%, going forward. So Jim Curry and team are working on that. So that's one way the opportunity set's been bigger for us. The second is, and we talked about this on the call, is that the new software platform allows us to do bigger deals, okay? So for companies that really want that support experience, for the companies that want hand-holding and ongoing support but they're really big type of applications, now we can do that. So I think that provides even more runway. And then if you want to just talk about market sizing, I mean I'll tell you, we don't spend a lot of time sizing the market and predicting what it's going to look like 10 years out. We just -- all we know is that how big we are and that we think it's much bigger. And we actually think that because the cloud provides people basically with the power of a mainframe with a credit card in less than 5 minutes, so much more work is going to be done. I know, Marc Andreessen did a great interview with Robert Scoble last week, I suggest people look at it online, sort of talking about all the new things that can be done. So I think it's really hard to predict. All you need to know it's a lot harder. So when we sort of think about growth long-term, it's more about looking at ourselves in the mirror than trying to look at market or even competitive dynamics.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So as you mentioned, OpenStack sort of becomes [indiscernible] alternative and you were there at the creation of it. But there's 100 plus companies and some very large companies who have adopted it, which is good news and it's bad news. It's great to standardize but at the same time, you're not the only person in town. But how have you been able to leverage your kind of expertise, your sort of founder status to ultimately monetize this?

Jason Luce

Well, I think -- so for one, let's talk about other people are out there trying to create or creating their own version of an enterprise-class OpenStack software platform, okay? Companies that have significantly more experience and being successful at developing software. And they also have a better calling card when it comes to having the year of the Fortune 500 CIO, so we understand that. And we built our business today has basically been supporting the sphere of technologies that we didn't create. So OpenStack, because we spawned it with NASA, and at one point were contributing almost 100% of the code, now, we're less than half, we think that, that opportunity is incremental. So let's talk about -- so we talked about the things what other software development companies have an edge on us. Where we think we have an edge is first, when it comes to supporting IT apps, we think we have a reputation of being the best in the world, okay? So we have a 10-year history on that. On OpenStack particularly, look we are running the largest OpenStack deployment our public cloud in the world on our version. So if you're trying to get comfortable looking at performance metrics on running this version or that version, we think that well, people will be apt to get comfortable running it on our version. So let's talk about what happens if we're wrong. If we're wrong in that and somebody else comes out and the world says we want this version of OpenStack, then we'll just -- we'll go to business around that, the same way we built the business around REL, the same we built a business around VMware. And I think all that stuff plays out the next, I don't know, 12, 18 months. Is that the question -- has that -- okay.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

And I think you've done some international expansion. You've done U.K., Hong Kong. How are you thinking about the international opportunity right now?

Jason Luce

Well, we also just opened a data center in Sydney with a lease with Digital Realty Trust. I think the international expansion strategy right now is probably more around going to help companies deploy and run OpenStack as private clouds, okay? So I don't think you're going to see a lot of data center expansion or leases overseas other than in areas where we already are. So just incremental to footprints that are already there like in the U.K., for instance. Because the nice thing about OpenStack is people can download it and then they call us or they call somebody else to help them run it on their -- in their facility. So I think that's the strategy today. Look, we have a movement in the company right now to try to target some of Latin America. But I think all of that -- most all of that, at least at this point, since it's really a pilot, will be run out of the United States.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So when you think about your customers, you talk about enterprise a lot, your roots are in pretty small businesses, it's like being credit card as you say, how does that mix look right now? Are you seeing Fortune 1000 really what's driving your growth now? Or is it fairly broad-based?

Jason Luce

I think it's 50/50. I mean, in terms -- I mean, if you just sort of look at the -- if you look at our revenue contribution between cloud and dedicated, it's about half and half. And up-to-date, the main buyers of the cloud products are [indiscernible] and something like 180,000 customers on the cloud. So you can figure that not very many of those are in the Fortune 1000. And on the dedicated side, enterprise is a big driver there.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Yes. Okay. And there's always concern when you see slower installed base growth or concern about guidance overall, that Amazon continues to gain scale. They continue to broaden their offers. So -- but obviously, they, primarily focused on a public cloud solution. How do you see even your ability to continue to grow while Amazon is growing and expanding there?

Jason Luce

Yes. Because -- I mean, we understand that Amazon has a -- in terms of providing the infrastructure, they have a cost structure advantage because that's a pure scale game and obviously, Amazon is operating at web scale. So they will probably be the leader in terms of setting the spot price in the market for say, a cycle of compute. And so what we do at Rackspace is, Brian mentioned that the infrastructure part of our offering, the inputs that we abstract, sub-space power cooling, connectivity, hardware, some standard software, those are the things we pass-through to the customer. But we study experience curves because we know that we need to be -- we need to ride that cost curve down and be as close to Amazon as possible because for every dollar that we have to pay more, for say, that cycle of compute, then that eats in to the value of where we make our margin on the service part. And look -- and I think if you ask Amazon, if they believe there's room in the market for a Rackspace and for customers that want hand-holding, hands in, they'll tell you yes.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So we've got some time for questions from the audience. Francois?

Francois Meunier - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Yes. It looks like you've been started to play with some arm servers in the past 12 months. How much of your workload do you think would run on arm in the next 3 to 4 years?

Bryan McGrath

Yes. So as of now, the -- our arm working just -- it's more of lab-based. So we have arm service there in the lab. We're testing on -- it's -- I mean, it's not a material piece of revenue. And I mean, I don't want to put out a projection of what it could be. But probably small. I think, anytime in the near-term because you have to compare it to a pretty large base.

Unknown Analyst

How is your churn rate right now? What is your churn rate? So for the rest, comment on your churn rate and then average life of a customer these days.

Jason Luce

So what we do in our key metrics is we actually break out churn and it's measured monthly revenue churn. It's average basically over the last 10 years has been basically 1% a month. And this last quarter, I think it was -- it improved to 0.7%. The main factors that drive revenue churn, it's not customers getting mad, and that does happen, okay? Because we mess up, [indiscernible] buttons, and then customers end up leaving because we've messed up on them several times. But the main driver is just the variable nature of our offering. Let's say you go run a marketing campaign around a Formula 1 race, well, when the race is over, the campaign comes down. So that's the main driver of churn. But it's been -- I would just say conservatively, 1% a month. And then to derive the lifetime of that revenue stream, I'd take the inverse of it. You know how to calculate that.

Unknown Analyst

Going back to your comment about Europe and kind of your expansion from a CapEx perspective there, given the opportunity that you guys have which appears to be fairly large, why wouldn't you continue to build out facilities and buildout CapEx in kind of the key markets in Europe?

Jason Luce

Look, I'll take this. We just signed an agreement for a lease with Digital to build another 10-megawatt facility in London. I -- Steven, I'll tell you, going back to 2008, we had plans -- tentative plans to go into Germany because if you look at sort of data protection laws, et cetera, there's reasons why customers -- German customers want their data to reside in Germany. I just think what -- I just think that with this OpenStack -- with OpenStack giving us the calling card to support some fraction of that 80% to 90% of workloads that fit in German company data centers, we're going to go attack that opportunity first. I'm not saying that in 6 months, we don't come back and when we land some big customers and they don't want to put in their data centers and we won't continue to -- opportunistically evaluate that, we will. I will just tell you that our plans right now are to go after the on-premise OpenStack opportunity.

Unknown Analyst

[indiscernible]

Jason Luce

That's right.

Unknown Analyst

On -- for the public cloud, obviously the big guys want to go slowly with the new OpenStack. What about the smaller guys? Your run-of-the-mill smaller customers that you were serving. How are they reacting? And have you flipped the switch on all those public cloud customers are now running OpenStack, all your existing ones from before?

Jason Luce

So everything incremental, everything new is running on the new platform, okay? And then some of the customers running on the legacy software code are migrating. But we're not going through a forced migration right now. And I think that, that -- I don't have an answer for you, but I think that later this year or probably even more of like a 2014 thing. In terms of traction, I mean look, we're seeing good uptake. People like the new platform. And you're exactly right, these big customers, we call them lighthouse customers. We have a list and think a lot of retail names. People that naturally, probably don't want to run on their largest competitor's infrastructure, are part of our group of customers that we think are going to help us drive revenue reacceleration. And you're exactly right, it takes time. I mean they're basically taking big, super-important production applications and running them on effectively, I don't want to say unproven, but let's just say obviously, a brand-new platform. So the proof of concepts today are taking longer than they'll take in 6 months, longer than they'll take in 12 months.

Unknown Analyst

But for run-of-the-mill smaller guys, they're not slowing down because it's a new platform? That sort of the same as it's always been?

Jason Luce

I don't have any data to suggests that, that's going on right now, yes.

Unknown Analyst

Maybe just talk about the potential -- you mentioned it before, if OpenStack splinters. So just what's happening right now? Who are the guys who are kind of pushing the splinter in and how are you going to counter that? Or just talk about the whole issue, I'm not too familiar with it.

Bryan McGrath

There's a couple of pieces, so it's -- I mean, forking the OpenStack. So that the manage -- in order to -- manage an open-sourced project, right, there's the whole series of steps we're taking -- we've mostly taken -- I mean, we've actually have. We've taken all those. But you, going into a foundation and you set up a governing board for the foundation and all of that. So their job is to herd all the cats, if you will, and keep everyone together. In some -- and so that project is an ongoing thing, it's a moving thing. It's like a Fedora. It's constantly ongoing. And from that, the different companies can then take a snapshot of the code at any point in time, they can put their logo on it and they can call it their version, and they can go out and promote that. There will be nuances between those different versions. Like for example, HP has a cloud, as it's widely known, but it's on an older version of OpenStack. I think it's 12, 18 months old, I've forgotten which, versus if you compare that version OpenStack that's running our cloud is 2 weeks old. And so those -- I don't think that would be called forking, because you use the word kind of loosely. But it's just different versions, different snapshots in time. So the foundation's job is to keep everyone together. Our job is to be, as a -- one of the ways we're going to differentiate our version versus the other people's is we're going to be as close to the latest and greatest at all times. We're trying to be 2 weeks behind the latest version in our public cloud and that will be the version that we'll allow you to download and use internally. Does that help?

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

So maybe we'll just finish with you talked a lot about the public cloud and on the dedicated side, on the private, obviously that appeals about to enterprises. But we got a lot of questions about the extent of which people are maybe migrating from a private or dedicated platform to the public. Is that a material factor? Is what we're seeing really a move to a hybrid, which is going to be something that's going to be more common over time?

Jason Luce

Absolutely the latter. I mean, dedicated is not going away. And we've obviously studied this sort of classic innovator's dilemma on whether or not we're going to cannibalize our entire dedicated business because cloud was a sufficient form factor to handle those workloads. And the good news is that didn't happen. That was sort of the issue du jour a couple of years ago and we used to report on a call like how many customers moved over. What it really is, is it's -- we take customers who don't want that. But what the nice thing is, is today, if you have a simple sort of single-server workload, you can go buy a slice of the server instead of a full server and sort of have 80% overhead be underutilized. So I think that, that's something that's changing the dedicated business because when cloud wasn't there you had to go dedicate it. I mean, I think we know that customers want them. I sort of think about it as a bicycle and a car, right? A bicycle is not cheaper than a car if you need to get to drive across the country, right? But if you only need to drive down the road, it's great to buy a bicycle instead of a -- then it is cheaper than a car. So I think the IT buyer's mindset, there's not one general-purpose form factor that can handle all of these workloads.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. Jason, Bryan, we appreciate your time. Thank you very much.

Jason Luce

Thank you, Simon.

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