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ValueExpectations.com recently posted, “Dividends are falling, so stocks have less value?” which gave some insight on our thoughts on the effect dividends have on stock values. We concluded that dividends alone are irrelevant in estimating a company’s value.

As a follow up to that article we have identified a dozen companies that pay a dividend and have the fundamentals to support the dividend. We looked at several fundamental factors to flush out companies that may be at risk of reducing their dividend in the near future. The end result, was a list of companies with:

-Positive Future Economic Margins
-Low Financial Debt
-High Management Quality
-High Valuation Score
-High Dividend Yield

Solid Companies That Pay A Dividend: (click to enlarge)

*AFG’s Value Expectation interface allows us to understand the imbedded Sales Growth, EBITDA Margins, and Asset Turnovers a company has to deliver in the future to justify its current trading price. In theory and in normal circumstances, if the imbedded future performance is very conservative relative to the company’s historical performance, the stock is regarded as undervalued. The above table displays the implied future sales growth of these companies assuming their EBITDA margins and Asset turnovers stay at the 5 year median levels.

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This article has 35 comments:

  •  
    Two things. First, PFE cut its dividend in half and that needs to be reflected in your table. Second, I'm not sure CAT's dividend is safe. They have lots of debt and earnings projections are coming down quickly. Their payout ratio may reach 100%.
    Mar 01 05:54 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    In this economy--no dividend is completely safe over the long haul. I might add that no companies earnings are going to be safe in the long haul also.
    Mar 01 09:08 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Who's worried about the economy?

    I'm concerned about this new Administration. It looks to me to be the most anti-business Ad in the nation's history.

    Because of that I'm not so sure anything in America is safe!
    Mar 01 10:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Did you ever hear the expession "Here today gone tomorrow" ... ?

    Dividends .... ?

    Earn 3% in div and lose 20% in stock value .... ?

    The only safe div is "Hold onto your own cash"
    Mar 01 11:05 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Personally, I try to do a more holistic approach, than just dividends, although that is one of my factors that I look for. Some of the things that send up red flags to me are negative cash flow and EPS less than the dividends. I also look at the stock price performance both for short term (6 months) and for long term (5 years). If even the short term shows an increase, but the long term shows a decline, I avoid the stock. I also check the headlines for the stock for the last 6 months to a year, looking for clues to the overall health of the company. To me buying stock in a company isnt just about price and dividend.
    Mar 01 11:41 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    JNJ and NOK might be the safest payers on this list. Three more to consider is PG,KFT and MCD for safety and regular increases. If you put stock price movements above the dividends in importance your better off staying in cash .
    Mar 01 11:56 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why isn't Alcoa (AA) on this list??!?!?!? I own $300+K of it and I LOVE it-esp at $7 a share!
    Mar 01 12:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Dividend paying stocks are "relatively" better than other stocks due to their dividends. The market takes them down along with all of the other stocks, however. They may be relatively more attractive because there aren't that many of them. If we see something like DOW 3500, S&P 350, dividend stocks will be hurt right along with everything else.
    Mar 01 12:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Substitute div capture with writing covered calls till this mess subsides.Not only do you get the premium but the div as well -win/win
    TONY WYAN
    Mar 01 01:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The dividend suggestions would work well in a relatively stable market,where good companies are rewarded. But in this market, cash still is probably preferable, unless you think we are near "the bottom". A difficult call. A better bet is probably to look at these dividend stocks as preferable to nondividend stocks when the market returns to more normal behavior.

    That may be a while.
    Mar 01 02:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    MSFT is a farce.
    Very disappointing.
    Snail's pace and falling behind
    year after year.
    Mar 01 02:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Obama is a communist, this is documented fact and not propaganda. Anyone who wishes just to take a little time a do a little research will find this out on their own quickly. (I have). It's no wonder he's going to tax everyone and redistribute wealth.....


    On Mar 01 10:42 AM ArtfulDodger wrote:

    > Who's worried about the economy?
    >
    > I'm concerned about this new Administration. It looks to me to be
    > the most anti-business Ad in the nation's history.
    >
    > Because of that I'm not so sure anything in America is safe!
    Mar 01 03:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It seems to me there are two ways to make money buying stocks. One is with their growth and the 2nd is with dividends.

    History has shown us that we can't rely soley on long term growth for an industry. I speak in general that the payment of dividends is managements way of showing the public they are capable of managing a company for the long term.

    After all, if it weren't for the stockholders, management wouldn't have a job. Dividends reward the stockholders for taking a risk in their managment of a company.
    Mar 01 05:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Simply, their business is drying up. Too much construction base. Electric rates heading up; major cost factor. Bottom line - declining business coupled with rising costs.


    On Mar 01 12:05 PM HATEFEEBAY wrote:

    > Why isn't Alcoa (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) on this list??!?!?!?
    > I own $300+K of it and I LOVE it-esp at $7 a share!
    Mar 01 05:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Until economy shows steady recovery, best to ignore dividends and move over to bonds in these or similar companies. In both cases, as interest rates climb (a certainty), stock and bond prices drop. Unlike stocks, however, bonds will recover value at maturity. There are plenty of BBB and up rated bonds paying 5 - 6 1/2 % interest with 18 - 24 months maturity
    Mar 01 05:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    How about shorting stocks. Holding long term doesn't work presently.
    Mar 01 07:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    FYI, NOK recently cut its dividend to.40 from .53

    www.bloomberg.com/apps...
    Mar 01 09:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Nothing is safe when the patience are in charge of the insane asylum.
    Mar 02 08:30 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    A Canadian company (income trust) with an effective 7% against an 8.2% payout monthly, with growth in terms of recent acquisitions, record production in 2008, a new record year. This in turn led to record gross and net earnings. It is also as "green" as you can get being in the hydroelectric and wind farming businesses. Rather than cut it's dividend it is likely to soon increase due to the strong financials and new generation capacity recently added. GLHIF/GLH-UN.TO. Great Lakes Hydro income fund. They are out there and this one has issues as well in terms of recent share dilution, seasonally weak 1st qtr results that are usual due to the seasonal Hydrologies, and a weaker currency as of late.
    Mar 02 09:21 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    When I was growing up, banks offered 4% interest for savings accounts. That was incentive to invest our money in the bank, and we could watch it grow every time we deposited more money, every time they updated our passbooks. Now, they don't update the passbooks ("You can do that, honey, we'll just balance it once a year for you"), they don't give 4% interest, and I no longer have the incentive. To replace that mode of investment, I choose dividend paying stocks, and to improve on that mode (savings accounts) I look for better than 4% yield on top of a strong company. I'm not to the point where I can live on the dividends, but the dividends will provide a healthy cushion for Social Security. My budget planning now aims toward getting a balance of dividend income on a monthly basis. It's more reliable than my IRA.
    Mar 02 09:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I'm paying a 10% dividend yield.

    Just send me your money, and I'll send you back 10% of it each year, and you'll still own your shares of Chris B enterprises.

    Perhaps if I was a publicly traded corporation, this would sound like a good deal to you.
    Mar 02 09:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    i own CAT and GRMN, I don't own MSFT, and i was thinking of buying some. MSFT is a giant and not going anywhere they seem to be doing a good job of fighting off piracy through their online software registrations. Any thoughts?
    Mar 02 10:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    jimlacks,

    Before you buy MSFT, ask yourself the following questions:

    1) Why will people be buying more computers than in the past? What does Vista or 7 do for most people that a 4 year old XP computer wouldn't do just as fast? How many upgrades do you expect to occur during a deep recession / depression?

    2) Do you want to own a company that consistently produces an inferior product? Think about the security vulnerabilities inherent to Windows' architecture. Think about the XBox. Think about Hotmail. Think about the Zune, the only mp3 player ever known to have crashed. Everything they touch. Ask a tech person.

    3) How is MSFT responding to the following long-term trends: open source / linux, online applications, cloud computing, netbooks, smart phones, social networking, artificial intelligence, the rise of China, etc? Why are competitors leading the way in ALL of these areas? What happens to tech companies that don't adapt?

    Mar 02 01:32 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why is PFE on this list? They cut their dividend

    Amd what is so attractive about a stock price that falls for years
    Mar 02 02:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Nice chart, but many large-caps have been cutting dividends. Take GE for example, and of course PFE which is on the top of your list. We won't even talk about dividend cuts for Citi.

    I like MSFT, JNJ, and GD from your list.
    Mar 02 03:03 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I thought NOK just "suspended" their dividend.

    Now that cutting dividends is de rigeur, even companies that don't need to cut them will jump on the bandwagon and take cover in the fact that others are cutting. Executives want all the available cash to buy back shares, so that their options can come back into the money. Paying dividends to the owners (i.e. the shareholders) is too old-fashioned, as it reduces the executives' loot, disguised as options.

    On Mar 01 11:56 AM YoMama wrote:

    > JNJ and NOK might be the safest payers on this list. Three more to
    > consider is PG,KFT and MCD for safety and regular increases. If you
    > put stock price movements above the dividends in importance your
    > better off staying in cash .
    Mar 02 05:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    2009 will be the worst year for dividend cuts since 1938
    Mar 02 05:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "Obama is a communist"? You're ridiculous.

    "a documented fact"? Prove this "documented fact". What's your idea of a "documented fact"?

    You're an idiot. Brush up on "your research".


    On Mar 01 03:04 PM User 184868 wrote:

    > Obama is a communist, this is documented fact and not propaganda.
    > Anyone who wishes just to take a little time a do a little research
    > will find this out on their own quickly. (I have). It's no wonder
    > he's going to tax everyone and redistribute wealth.....
    Mar 02 10:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This article provides no depth of discussion on the most important topic in stock market investing: dividends.

    Long term investing in dividend stocks that have been raising their dividends is the smartest, safest, and ONLY way to invest in the stock market. Academic studies have proven so.

    I am getting so tired of shills hawking their investment services via empty articles with out of date data.

    The author(s) should be ashamed.
    Mar 03 07:56 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS FIXED! MR BUSH LET CROOKS MAKE UP THE RULES,TAKE ONLINE STOCK THEY GOT THE SEC UNDER COX WATCK TO PASS REGULATION T,WHAT THAT IS WHEN YOU BUY STOCK AND GET READY TO SELL YOU HAVE TO WAIT 3 DAYS BEFORE YOU CAN BUY OR SELL AGAIN.IT WAS 1 DAY AND SHORT SELLI NG MUST TO RUN A STOCK DOWN SO YOU AND YOUR FRIENS KNOW WHEN TO BUY AND SELL
    Mar 03 08:02 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Obama might not be a communist by definition, but we must ask ourselves if he is over his head?

    Why would he raise taxes on the producers that stimulate the economy and create jobs? Ultimately if these people are getting taxed more they will just lay people off or work less (hurting the working class). They are already well off, there is no incentive to keep reaching for your highest potential once incentives are taken away. My guess is they will take it EZ until he is kicked out of office.
    He wants to issue carbon taxes as a disincentive towards pollution, but why does he not see the same correlation when he raises taxes on investors? Higher taxes are a deterrent. In a time like this, why would you use a deterrent towards innovation or progress, after all isn’t that what will get us out of this slump? It seems that the market is not moving because everyone is afraid of what he will do next.
    So even though he might not be a true communist, it seems he is making some costly mistakes for us all in America, the land of opportunity and the land that was founded on the pursuit of happiness and not the pursuit of handouts.



    On Mar 03 07:56 AM You're Kidding wrote:

    > This article provides no depth of discussion on the most important
    > topic in stock market investing: dividends.
    >
    > Long term investing in dividend stocks that have been raising their
    > dividends is the smartest, safest, and ONLY way to invest in the
    > stock market. Academic studies have proven so.
    >
    > I am getting so tired of shills hawking their investment services
    > via empty articles with out of date data.
    >
    > The author(s) should be ashamed.
    Mar 03 10:11 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Could it be because its 52 wk hi-lo is 44.97 - 5.56? It did well for 9 of the last 10 years, but has recently tanked (06/2007 hit a high of 48.77). Course, if you're only looking at dividend income, then it might not matter.


    On Mar 01 12:05 PM HATEFEEBAY wrote:

    > Why isn't Alcoa (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) on this list??!?!?!?
    > I own $300+K of it and I LOVE it-esp at $7 a share!
    Mar 03 04:13 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "Obama is a communist"? You're ridiculous."

    AND YOU ARE A FOOL.
    If you dont know the connection between Barack Obama and the New Party's endorsement of him, his communist predecessor in Hyde Park Chicago and the folks he ran with (like radical/socialist Bill Ayers and the foundations they were on together), and communist Frank Davis Marshall, and the 'dog whistle' comments he's made from time to time to his fellow leftists and redistributionists ... well then you were one of millions of shills who bought the lie that the Mocha Marxist was somebody he aint.

    Obama is a clear and present danger to the American free enterprise system, and the markets have in 40 days figured it out now that his massive govt takeover plans are actually proposed legislation. THAT'S why we are down 23% this year, The worst start for any President EVER.
    Mar 04 11:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why would he raise taxes on the producers that stimulate the economy and create jobs? "

    Because Obama is a leftist who never held a real private sector job outside of 'community organizer' (aka professional leftwing agitator). He doesnt respect, honor or understand the free market, capitalism, or those that run businesses and create wealth.

    As such, Obama is now the #1 threat to our continued prosperity.
    Mar 04 11:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Paying dividends to the owners (i.e. the shareholders) is too old-fashioned, as it reduces the executives' loot, disguised as options."

    Dividends came back in style thanks to the 2003 tax cuts. I wonder if there will be a connection to a repeal in 15% qualified div tax treatment and a return to the 'low dividends, more buybacks' style of capital use.

    A future seeking alpha article awaits.
    Mar 04 11:53 PM | Link | Reply