Was the Global Equities Crash Related to Obama's Election? 41 comments
March 01, 2009
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
No one can prove that the crash in global equity markets has anything to do with Obama becoming president, but there are reasons to think so.
Obama is seeking to implement virtually overnight a blueprint for an unprecedent expansion of government's size and power, and huge new tax burdens and deficits will be required to fund this. He justifies it all with the unproven and logic-lacking theory that more government spending and intervention can expand the economy. He is rushing to implement a massive shift in the way we use energy by putting in place a politically motivated tax on the cheapest energy available, based on an increasingly smaller "consensus" among scientists that reducing carbon emissions will "save the planet."
In short, Obama is taking monumental risks, not only with his own presidency, but with the future of our country, and ultimately with the well-being of the entire world. He wasn't kidding when he said he was audacious. But it's increasingly looking like his audacity is spinning out of control. In my view, that's what is worrying equity markets all over the world. This is far more serious than the subprime lending and related financial crisis, which is well on its way to getting fixed.
Related Articles
|
-
The Seeking Alpha 100
See allThe top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
Seeking Alpha 100 » -
Fastest Climbers
Authors with the largestSee all
increase in followers
in the last 7 days
Fastest Climbers » -
Top Commenters
Top commenters,See all
as ranked by their peers
Top Commenters » -
Top Instabloggers
The 100 most active
Instabloggers.-
1
David Fry
-
2
TraderMark
-
3
Don Dion
-
4
Cliff Wachtel
-
5
Mike Havrilla
Top Instabloggers » -
1
-
Top StockTalkers
Top
StockTalkers.-
1
David Fry
-
2
Cliff Wachtel
-
3
Mike Havrilla
-
4
David White
-
5
Hedged In
Top StockTalkers » -
1
This article has 41 comments:
You are also kidding yourself if you think he is the solution.
The entire economic model was flawed and it needs fixing. Obama sure as hell didn't break it and he sure as hell ain't going to fix it either!
They failed!
They allowed the Democrats to be elected and take over Congress.
They failed to keep Chuck Schumer from shooting off his mouth and causing a national loss of confidence and a subsequent run on Lehman Brothers -- with the subsequent domino effect wiping out the financial houses.
They allowed Barney Frank to block monitoring measures by Treasury over the parastatels Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae give millions in campaign contributions to Democrats to ensure they were unmonitored.
Worse, they allowed the media to run their campaign for the Presidential nomination, so capable leaders like Romney got derailed, and we ended up with a boring, cranky old guy with the charisma of a brick as a candidate.
No question about it; this is all the Republicans' fault.
I would call the collapse as one due to "changes of uncertain outcome."
As for nationalizing/socialis... a clue...gov't has been bailing out companies long before Obama came along. Are you serious?
Wow, I am embarrassed for you...
yes the socialism is blossoming now in the gloom...
but todays money was spent long ago...
an now the people who spend are spent...
all the politix have scewed up...
they couldn't take any little inventory recession without meddling...
now they want to fix this one with more meddling...
the growth is in the meddling...
so the busts will become bigger and more frequent
Bushco had more than a year to start to deal with this crisis and did absolutely NOTHING. They should have had a completely thought out plan well before clueless Paulson began to brown his pants on an hourly basis in September. AIG/Lehman was every bit a Viennese Credit-Anstalt 1931 event. (Google it) Paulson did not know his history. Only the knee jerk play book of the ideological "free market" Taliban. The effect of this catastrophic blunder is still reverberating across the world and will continue mercilessly.
This was written OVER A YEAR AGO!!! THIS WAS ALL CLEARLY FORESEEN!!!
www.minyanville.com/ar...
Did Obama suddenly sell CDS fissionable financial plutonium to the entire world starting in September 2008? I think not, sir.
Does the writer of this article know what a Credit Default Swap is?
www.villagevoice.com/2...
Smick started writing his book which details more than EIGHT potentially catastrophic global bubbles well BEFORE Obama was even a serious contender!
www.theworldiscurved.c.../
The ghost of CONGRESSMAN C. AUGUST LINDBERGH is now upon the 300 year system of fractional reserve banking invented by the Bank of England and those who ran it beyond it's limit completely into the ground. History has vindicated him.
books.google.com/books...
Judgment Day has come. Califia Beach is going to be completely washed out to sea with all the group think ilk that sun on it.
The jig is up. There will be a total re-think of the Federal Reserve System over the next eight years as the crisis rages on across the world.
To blame all this on Barack Obama is criminal. It is a lie. And perpetrating a lie is very bad karma upon one's wife and children in the Cosmos. Very, very bad indeed.
On Mar 01 08:49 AM akapital wrote:
> hey, yeah, you know what else I noticed, whenever it rains I see
> lots of umbrellas...I think umbrellas are causing the rain...
>
> As for nationalizing/socialis... a clue...gov't has been bailing
> out companies long before Obama came along. Are you serious?
>
> Wow, I am embarrassed for you...
I love free speech! Lets everyone know who the wankers are. Easier to avoid their silly shit that way!
On Mar 01 12:32 PM ROLEXROLEX wrote:
> Think of obama, where he would work 150-200 years ago, now imagine
> him a president of US and what it means.
So, the Bla Bla Obama administration, a Freak Show, seeks to drive the price down on the share price of certain companies, then buy huge blocks of said shares at a deeply discounted price in said certain companies, hold said companies' deeply discounted shares until such can be resold into the public market at a huge gain. If you did that,,, you get the fed's perk walk to court then to prison.
Wake up America. The Bla Bla Obama administration is a Freak Show.
BlaBlaObama.com
The Iowa experimental election markets are more accurate than polls in predicting US Presidential elections and predicted a Democratic win way before Obama took the lead against McCain in the polls.
tippie.uiowa.edu/news/...
The collapse of Bear Stearns, which was the forerunner of the crisis, was due to an inability of the firm to continue to fund itself because its mortgage securities had a sharp and excessive decline in value and were insufficient collateral. The loss in value of these securities was due to a much higher expectation that their actual cashflow would be much less than predicted. The banks that are holding these securities until today are finding that they are paying and not defaulting, which says that these securities should trade at a much higher price than they are. The decline in value and price of these securities, including at the time of Bear Stearns collapse, is due to an expectation that future, as opposed to current, cashflow will be modified and be less than anticipated.
In other words, the market anticipated the mortgage loan modification programs, bankruptcy cram downs, Democratic moral suasion and incentives to walk away from paying mortgages. This Democratic philosophy and programs led to the current banking crisis through excessive and unanticipated devaluation of mortgage securities. It also led to the inability of the investment banks and commercial banks to continue to fund themselves and to impair their capital base through write downs of the excessive devaluation of these securities.
Of course, a collapse in the investment banking area, in banking capital and a fear of government intervention in rewriting banking lending contracts after the fact would and did lead to the current worldwide equity markets decline and economic crisis. Especially, since worldwide governments and central banks follow each other's actions.
On Mar 01 08:28 AM seekingtraceevidence wrote:
> Your call is interesting and likely has some merit. But, at the same
> time SEC's Cox had just banned short selling on the financials (had
> previously told the world that he was not monitoring short selling
> because the spreads made the up-tic rule to difficult to enforce)
> and basically gave a green lignt to the shorts. Certainly, Obama's
> election added gloom and uncertainty to a financial system in which
> changing rules were raising the risk to capital rapidly. AND THEN,
> there were the bank's margin calls!!
> I would call the collapse as one due to "changes of uncertain outcome."
there are plenty of criminals in washington to give the blame to. you are deluded if you want to only blame the dumbocrats or the reprobates.
as i read the posts (not just here) of so many thinking they have a right to seek other people's wealth it confirms that my self protection moves and early retirement to avoid more "patriotic" contributions to the socialist system were correct.
should we blame ourselves just a little, for putting up with bloated unconstitutional government, laws that apply to us but not the law makers, higher taxation, lawyers in government,...add your pet peeve.
some seem to welcome oblahblah's worker's paradise.it failed in russia and everywhere it has been tried. europe is a stagnat mess and in about 150% deeper than we are from the figures i have come across. china is worse than both but the brutal state says "no all is well."
to some, palin was not running for presdent and neither was bush jr..mcpain was a moderate leftist, oblahblah is an extreme leftist. in reality there was little difference in what will be done to america.
i had a little exchange with an unbelievable character called tyrone a few days back. i fear his philosophy is becoming dominant. i thought it was funny, but now i find it scary.i think it was "obama's budget, the sum of all fears." something like that.
boats
i guess you are right. the republic is over. the fall of the city on the hill is in progress. i should have learned to play a violin. it might be soothing as the republic burns. guess i'm just to stupid to give up the ship. never did have the sense to know when i was beat.
the market will be for dabbling and fun now. if i accidently make to much on something i will just sit on it til it drops rather than pay taxes on any gains.
yes let's tax the productive 'til they leave or give up. that ought to work.
whatever happened to that good ol' cando attitude, work hard, mind your own business, take care of yourself. i just spotted the little red hen boarding a flight for parts unknown.
great comment!!!!!
On Mar 01 04:03 AM randy thurman wrote:
> cnbc,wall street and all republicans possible should go to washington
> and call it the million crybaby/piss-poor loser march
Guess what stevie - YOU LOST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
On Mar 01 07:19 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:
> Calafia has it substantially right. Cause: Democrat takeover of the
> Legislative and Executive branches. Effect: Massive declines in
> equities.
>
> I'd expand his argument a little and say the real decline started
> with the Democrat takeover of the Legislative branch in 2006.
>
> As we begin to see the fecklessness and naivete of the Democrats,
> the real fear begins to set in. (Carbon taxes, higher marginal income
> tax rates, green technology.) Anybody with money is a) NOT thinking
> about investing it in equities, b) looking for a place to hide it
> from the kleptocrats in the U.S. government.
>
> All hail President Barack Hussein Mugabe!
What pushed me over the edge to bearishness, was my view that Obama retaking a big lead in the polls would make him likely to win. I moved from conerned about the market to full panic bearish (thank goodness).
It is no coincidence. The market has anticipated the moves that the Obama administration is making.
And we are in the hands of politicans. Scary. I don't care what party they are from. I don't trust em.
And neither does Mr. Market
"The new economy that will emerge from all this will be more innovative, tighter, better educated and less likely to out-source than before"
Sunnsea;
If you believe that load, put all your money in CITI common.
took the lead. The press basically installed obama. Without the
press and the left wing media covering for barrack the truth would
have come out. Now we're going to see if the people that are the
producers don't mind carrying the non-producers to a much
greater extent.
Should we ever come to 20% unemployment like in the 30's it will not be soup lines but machine guns, killing and looting. I fear this time it'l be literally 'blood in the streets'.
What can we 'commoners' do about it right now? Unfortunately I don't
know.
On Mar 01 06:44 PM daveog wrote:
> The timing of the start of the stock market big fall (Oct 6th) was
> the day I started to sell every stock/stock mutual fund I owned.
> I feared the stock market was in danger, after being relatively bullish
> since 2006.
>
> What pushed me over the edge to bearishness, was my view that Obama
> retaking a big lead in the polls would make him likely to win. I
> moved from conerned about the market to full panic bearish (thank
> goodness).
>
> It is no coincidence. The market has anticipated the moves that
> the Obama administration is making.
>
On Mar 01 10:31 PM doubtful wrote:
> Definetly more serious/dangerous than the subprime crises. Many leading
> economists tell you that he is to timid, not spending enough. Only
> much more leveraging will stop the problem.
> Should we ever come to 20% unemployment like in the 30's it will
> not be soup lines but machine guns, killing and looting. I fear this
> time it'l be literally 'blood in the streets'.
> What can we 'commoners' do about it right now? Unfortunately I don't
>
> know.
BTW, I did the exactly same thing and will not come back from the hills until sanity returns to monetary, tax, and legal policy.
On Mar 02 08:34 AM epeon wrote:
> I do not want to blame exclusively Obama. We had problems before
> him. However, when it became obvious in November that Obama was
> going to win, I pretty much cashed out and ran for the hills. I
> think a lot of people did. With Reid and Pelosi writing US economic
> policy, investors are going to get the shaft. The most rational
> strategy is to be very defensive and hide your income. We are back
> to the Jimmy Carter era of tax avoidance, look for tax breaks, etc.
> All necessary, but not really beneficial to the American economy.